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02. Conjoncturedv 97 Politique africaine n° 97 - mars 2005 133 Paul Nugent Les élections ghanéennes de 2004 : anatomie d’un système bipartite En dépit d’estimations augurant une large victoire du parti au pouvoir (NPP), le principal parti d’opposition (NDC) ghanéen a obtenu de meilleurs résultats qu’escompté. Lors de la présidentielle de 2004, J. Kufuor réussit à éviter de peu un second tour, alors que les pertes de l’opposition aux législatives furent contrebalancées par un sursaut ailleurs, notamment dans le Grand Accra. La prestation du NDC, eu égard aux piètres résultats des petits partis, souligne la structuration de la vie poli- tique autour d’un système bipartisan. Cet article étudie les stratégies électorales et les résultats en fonction des allégeances historiques, du rôle de l’ethnicité et des perceptions de l’action passée du NPP. Le 7 décembre 2004, pour la quatrième fois depuis le rétablissement d’un régime constitutionnel en 1992, les Ghanéens sont allés aux urnes. Pour la plupart des observateurs et politiciens, l’issue des scrutins était jouée d’avance : le mandat présidentiel de John Kufuor serait reconduit et son parti, le New Patriotic Party (NPP), s’assurerait une confortable majorité parlementaire. Beaucoup s’inquiétaient même d’une victoire si nette qu’elle pourrait conduire au retour d’un système monopartite. Le principal parti d’opposition, le National Democratic Congress (NDC), semblait démoralisé et dépourvu de fonds de campagne depuis sa disgrâce de 2000 ; quant aux autres partis, les plus petits, ils n’existaient guère que sur le papier. Le NPP, quant à lui, bénéficiait de tous les avantages de l’exercice du pouvoir, ainsi que de solides ressources finan- cières. Les prédictions se sont avérées exactes dans la mesure où J. Kufuor a été réélu dès le premier tour et où son parti a remporté 128 des 230 sièges du Parlement. Cependant, les leaders du NPP ont été surpris de leur incapacité à déloger le NDC de ses bastions électoraux. Le National Democratic Congress, 134 CONJONCTURE en effet, a emporté 94 sièges et a failli contraindre Kufuor à un second tour de scrutin. Celui-ci perdait 5 points par rapport au second tour de 2000, même s’il faut convenir qu’il a fait mieux qu’au premier tour de la même élection (se reporter aux tableaux 1 et 2 en annexe). John Atta-Mills, le candidat du National Democratic Congress, a légèrement progressé aux deux tours et le parti est resté majoritaire dans quatre des dix régions du pays (Northern, Upper East, Upper West et Volta), talonnant de près le NPP dans la Greater Accra Region. Le NPP n’a donc pas été en mesure de remporter le triomphe que, comme tant d’autres, il avait escompté. J’ai affirmé ailleurs que le NPP et la soi-disant tradition Busia/Danquah dont il émane avaient eu des difficultés à percer dans les zones les plus périphériques du pays 1. C’était toujours le cas en 2004, mais certains changements dans la répartition des votes nuancent ce tableau. Le point essentiel reste bien cepen- dant la reproduction d’une bipolarisation politique. Aussi, cet article s’attache à décrire les stratégies électorales et les résultats en fonction des allégeances historiques, du rôle de l’ethnicité et des perceptions de l’action passée du parti gouvernemental. Semer le grain : les stratégies de campagne Les petits partis La Quatrième République a permis l’émergence de nombreux partis politiques, mais ceux-ci n’ont pas obtenu de résultats significatifs le jour du scrutin. En 2000, il n’y avait pas moins de cinq candidats à l’élection prési- dentielle, en plus de J. Kufuor et de J. Atta-Mills, qui ont remporté 7,2 % du total des suffrages et quatre sièges au Parlement. En 2004, le United Ghana Movement (UGM) était moribond et le Great Consolidated Popular Party (GCPP), l’Egle Party, le Democratic People’s Party (DPP) et le National Redemp- tion Party (NRP) ne se sont présentés qu’à une poignée de sièges. Restaient deux partis qui revendiquent l’héritage de Kwame Nkrumah. Ces nkrumahistes auto-proclamés se considèrent comme la seule alternative possible aux tenants de la tradition Busia/Danquah, renouant ainsi le clivage historique qui existe depuis les années 1940. Mais il semble que le nkrumahisme n’a plus guère de sens pour les jeunes générations, ou que l’électorat n’a guère d’estime pour ses champions actuels. Le Convention People’s Party (CPP) d’aujourd’hui est donc né de la fusion de petits partis nkrumahistes dont l’assise électorale s’était réduite depuis 1992. En 2000, à la présidentielle, son représentant, George Hagan, n’a recueilli que 1,8 % des voix, et le CPP a vu sa présence au Parlement réduite à un seul siège. Par ailleurs, le People’s National Convention (PNC) a refusé la coalition avec le CPP, tablant sur sa capacité à mobiliser les électeurs Politique africaine 135 Les élections ghanéennes de 2004 : anatomie d’un système bipartite du Nord, cependant la part des votes acquis à son leader, Edward Mahama, a légèrement baissé, passant de 3 % à 2,9 % entre 1996 et 2000 ; le PNC a néanmoins réussi à renforcer sa présence au Parlement, passant de un à trois sièges. À l’approche des élections de 2004, le Convention People’s Party était en difficulté. Signe révélateur, le parti ne parvenait pas à décider s’il allait ou non engager ses maigres ressources dans une campagne nationale perdue d’avance. Les plus réalistes estimaient que le CPP devait se recentrer sur les législatives et abandonner la course à la présidence. George Hagan est donc allé jusqu’à encourager les membres de son parti à voter pour John Kufuor plutôt que pour George Aggudey, son successeur. Le Dr Paa Kwesi Nduom a également fait preuve de réalisme : s’il n’avait pas remporté de sièges pour le CPP en 2000, il avait été nommé ministre de l’Énergie. Aussi, comme Hagan, il a soutenu la candidature de Kufuor en 2004 2. Les optimistes, pour leur part, affirmèrent que la crédibilité du parti passait par le déploiement d’un véritable effort dans la lutte pour la présidence. La campagne menée par Aggudey et le CCP critiquait fortement les politiques gouvernementales, y compris l’Initiative en faveur des pays pauvres très endettés (PPTE). Mais le parti a dû lutter pour faire entendre sa voix dans le vacarme des déclarations et contre-déclarations du NPP et du NDC. Lors du débat télévisé des candidats présidentiables, si la performance d’Aggudey a été jugée honorable, sur le terrain son parti ne fut pas très présent, et ce même sur la bande côtière des Western et Central Regions, terrains de chasse traditionnels des nkrumahistes. Le PNC, de son côté, se pensait plus fort en 2004, pourtant, alors que Mahama aspirait à des responsabilités nationales, son électorat restait concentré dans les régions du Nord et les zongos, les quartiers traditionnellement musulmans des villes du sud du pays. Malgré tout, il se présentait comme la seule alter- native crédible au NDC et au NPP. Quatre ans plus tôt, Mahama avait soutenu Kufuor au second tour mais avait refusé de faire partie du gouvernement, alors que Kufuor voulait y réunir plusieurs tendances 3. En 2004, à l’approche 1. Voir P. Nugent, « Winners, losers and also rans : money, moral authority and voting patterns in the Ghana 2000 elections », African Affairs, n° 100, 2001, p. 405-428 ; P. Nugent, « Ethnicity as an explanatory factor in the Ghana 2000 elections», African Issues, vol. XXIX (1-2), 2001, p. 2-7. Voir aussi K. Van Walraven, « The end of an era : the Ghanaian elections of December 2000 », Journal of Contemporary African Studies, 20 (2), 2002, p. 183-202. 2. Le NPP a décidé de ne pas présenter de candidat contre lui. Bien qu’il ait gagné, son mandat ministériel n’a pas été renouvelé. 3. Contre l’avis des dirigeants du parti, un député a accepté un poste ministériel, ce qui a tourné à l’aigre lorsqu’il a été incarcéré pour malversations. 136 CONJONCTURE des élections, le PNC prit de plus en plus ses distances avec le NPP. Comme le CPP d’Aggudey, il lui reprochait de perpétuer les pires aspects du pro- gramme du NDC d’Atta-Mills. Par ailleurs, il s’est efforcé d’élargir sa base partisane en formant une Grande Coalition (« Grand Coalition ») avec deux plus petits partis, le GCPP et l’Egle Party. Mais Dan Lartey a finalement retiré le GCPP de cette coalition lorsque Mahama a choisi le leader de l’Egle Party, Danny Ofori-Atta, comme candidat à la vice-présidence. La Coalition, alors amputée, n’a bénéficié que de ressources minimales pour mener une cam- pagne nationale et d’une couverture médiatique restreinte. Sa seule chance d’améliorer sa représentation parlementaire résidait dans un retournement du Nord contre le parti majoritaire. Mais même les plus optimistes ne pensaient pas que Mahama pourrait atteindre le second tour. Le Château et le Parapluie* Le seul parti susceptible de mettre le New Patriotic Party en difficulté était donc le National Democratic Congress, qui dispose de structures partisanes actives dans la majeure partie du pays – même si ses fonds sont limités depuis l’affaiblissement des activités du 31st December Women’s Movement 4. L’histoire du parti NDC est complexe et renvoie à deux fortes personnalités : d’un côté, son président, le Dr Obed Asamoah, qui en revendique la fondation ; de l’autre, Jerry Rawlings qui a tendance à se considérer comme le père du parti. Le pre- mier était désireux de moderniser le NDC pour le rendre plus compétitif dans l’ère post-Rawlings, ce qui explique, en partie, son soutien à la candidature du Dr Kwesi Botchway : ministre très respecté des Finances et de la Planification économique dans les années 1980, celui-ci n’était pas concerné par les erreurs passées du parti.
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