Journal of Economic Growth (2020) 25:87–145 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-020-09174-7 The imperial roots of global trade Gunes Gokmen1 · Wessel N. Vermeulen2 · Pierre‑Louis Vézina3 Published online: 8 February 2020 © The Author(s) 2020 Abstract Throughout history empires facilitated trade within their territories by building and secur- ing trade and migration routes, and by imposing common norms, languages, religions, and legal systems, all of which led to the accumulation of imperial capital. In this paper, we collect novel data on the rise and fall of empires over the last 5000 years, construct a meas- ure of accumulated imperial capital between countries, and estimate its relationship with trade patterns today. Our measure of imperial capital has a positive and signifcant efect on trade beyond potential historical legacies such as sharing a language, a religion, a legal system, or links via natural trade and invasion routes. This suggests a persistent and previ- ously unexplored infuence of long-gone empires on current trade. Keywords Imperial capital · Empires · Trade · Long-run persistence · Gravity JEL Classifcation F14 · N70 1 Introduction Modern life fows on an ever-rising river of trade; if we wish to understand its cur- rents and course, we must travel up its headwaters to commercial centers with names like Dilmun and Cambay, where its origins can be sought, and its future imagined. William J. Bernstein in A Splendid Exchange (2008) * Pierre-Louis Vézina
[email protected] Gunes Gokmen
[email protected] Wessel N. Vermeulen
[email protected] 1 Lund University, Lund, Sweden 2 Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK 3 King’s College London, London, UK Vol.:(0123456789)1 3 88 Journal of Economic Growth (2020) 25:87–145 The greatest expansions of world trade have tended to come not from the bloodless tâtonnement of some fctional Walrasian auctioneer but from the barrel of a Maxim gun, the edge of a scimitar, or the ferocity of nomadic horsemen.