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PIR MONITOR Market Strategy | Quarterly Report

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PIR MONITOR Market Strategy | Quarterly Report PIR MONITOR Market Strategy | Quarterly Report PIR Equita Research Team | [email protected] PIR MONITOR MARKET STRATEGY Analyst: Equita Research Team | [email protected] Quarterly report – September 2020 EQUITY RESEARCH CONSERVATIVE APPROACH STILL WEIGHING ON THE NEW PIR FLOWS Italy Traditional PIR funds (3.0) returned to slightly positive net inflows in 2Q20 (€+58.7mn) vs. outflows in 1Q20 and 4Q19, thus bringing the balance YTD to about € -200mn. However, net inflows are still lacklustre because of a very conservative approach in investment decisions by retail customers due to the uncertainty caused by Covid-19, in our opinion. We expect a return to positive net inflows for the traditional PIRs in the second half of the year when the distribution networks will once again intensify their commercial efforts on the product, as the new PIR (3.0) system, in force since January 2020, is effective for its relaunch. As for the new Alternative PIRs, the August decree (pending conversion into law) has strengthened the appeal of the instrument, raising the annual tax-free investment threshold per person from € 150k to € 300k per year. Given the magnitude of inflows expected from the new Alternative PIRs and the focus on SMEs (>70% of AUM not in FTSE MIB and FTSE MID stocks), we think it is crucial for the Government to continue to support the listing of SMEs and the access to the Capital Market, in order to better match supply and demand. ◼ Net outflows in PIR funds (3.0) € -175.5mn in 1H20 According to the official data of Assogestioni in 2Q20 the PIR funds recorded positive inflows worth € +58.7mn vs. outflows in 1Q20 of €-234mn. Total AUMs is now at € 16.8bn (+11% QoQ). According to IlSole24ore, inflows of traditional PIR funds were still negative for € -24mn in July, thus jeopardising the positive balances of April/May, when the products seemed to be on the way to recovery following a tough 1Q20 due to the Covid19 pandemic. In addition to the seasonal factor, which has not favoured new subscriptions for these instruments, we believe that a still very conservative approach to investment choices by retail customers - due to the uncertainty caused by the Covid-19 – is to blame. ◼ New Alternative PIRs ready for the launch. Appeal further improved by new government initiative to raise the maximum personal threshold The new Alternative PIRs are in the launch phase, with still limited flows in 2020 but a pronounced impact from 2021 onwards. According to the technical report accompanying the August Decree, the Government estimates € 5.65bn of funding for Alternative PIRs in 2021, € 6.7bn in 2022 and € 7.9bn in 2023 then reaching AUM of ca. € 25bn in 2023. For 2020, the Government assumes 60k plans for an average amount of € 75k and total inflows of € 4.5bn. The August decree (pending conversion into law) has further strengthened the appeal of alternative PIRs, with the annual tax-free investment threshold per person raised from € 150k to € 300k per year and up to a total of € 1.5mn. We remind that, for the funds related to Alternative PIRs, the investment threshold for instruments issued by Italian listed or not listed companies that are not included in the FTSEMIB nor FTSEMID index is set >70% of AUM vs. >3.5% of AUM in traditional PIR (3.0). This means that these instruments can be crucial to channel significant financial resources to SMEs, even in our more prudent scenario (€ 2-3 bn inflows per year). ANALYSTS ◼ An extension of the incentives for IPOs would be crucial to match supply and demand Gianmarco Bonacina Emanuele Gallazzi Given the magnitude of the inflows expected from the new Alternative PIRs, we Massimo Bonisoli, CFA Stefano Gamberini think it is crucial for the Government to continue to promote the access to the Paola Carboni Domenico Ghilotti market for corporates and in particular SMEs. As an example, we highlight the Alessandro Cecchini Roberto Letizia expiry in 2020 of incentives for the listing of SMEs with fiscal credits equal to 50% Martino De Ambroggi Andrea Lisi of IPO costs, up to € 500K. We think the extension of this initiative for the next Luigi de Bellis Luigi Pedone, CFA few years (and the introduction of similar initiatives) can support a better Giovanni Razzoli, CFA matching between supply (new equity) and demand (Alternative PIR inflows). September 10, 2020 1 IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES APPEAR AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT #300 PIR MONITOR – September 10, 2020 UPDATE ON INFLOWS AND AUM OF PIR FUNDS According to the official data by Assogestioni in 2Q20 the PIR funds recorded net inflows worth € +58.7mn, compared to the net outflows in 1Q20 of €-234.2mn and vs. €-380mn in 4Q19. Total AUMs – promoted by 72 funds (vs. 69 at the end of 4Q19) is now at € 16.8bn (+11% QoQ, due to positive market performance). According to IlSole24ore (August 29th, 2020), PIR products recorded net outflows in July of €-24mn, bringing YTD net outflows to a negative of € -200mn. PIR COMPLIANT MUTUAL FUNDS (€ MN) FY2017 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 FY2018 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 FY2019 1Q20 2Q20 Net inflows 10,902 1,957 1,355 476 163 3,950 -2.2 -361.0 -353.7 -380 -1,097 -234.2 58.7 AUM 15,769 17,536 18,566 18,915 17,383 17,383 18,780 18,547 18,522 18,725 18,725 15,112 16,767 Total AUM of Italian open 1,011,183 1,004,856 1,004,933 1,001,052 955,114 955,114 1,013,258 1,027,298 1,045,232 1,071,299 1,071,299 958,870 987,361 mutual funds Share 1.56% 1.75% 1.85% 1.89% 1.82% 1.82% 1.85% 1.81% 1.77% 1.75% 1.75% 1.58% 1.70% Source: Assogestioni PIR FUNDS TREND: AUM AND NET INFLOWS (€ MN) 20,000 5,000 18,000 4,000 16,000 14,000 3,000 12,000 2,000 10,000 AUM 1,000 8,000 NET INFLOWS 6,000 0 4,000 -1,000 2,000 AUM Net inflows 0 -2,000 Source: Equita SIM elaborations on Assogestioni data In terms of AUM, the leader of the PIR segment is still Banca Mediolanum (25% market share), ahead of Intesa Sanpaolo (21%), Amundi (18%), Arca (12%) and Anima (10%). PIR FUNDS: MARKET SHARE OF THE MAIN PLAYERS (€ MN, 2Q20 DATA) Inflows Inflows AUM Share 2Q20 Share FY18* Share Banca Mediolanum 3,721 25% 56 n.m. 722 20% Intesa Sanpaolo group 3,247 21% 17 n.m. 1,139 31% Amundi 2,673 18% 8 n.m. 954 26% Arca 1,874 12% 26 n.m. 307 8% Anima 1,502 10% 21 n.m. 556 15% Lyxor 183 1% -48 n.m. -259 n.m. Source: Assogestioni; *in 2019 new provisions on PIR funds were approved (investment limits of 3.5% on AIM and 3.5% on venture capital) which blocked the product. From 2020, the product has been revamped (with replacement of the investment limits on AIM and VC with a 3.5% share for investments in companies NOT included on the FTSE MIB and FTSE MID index). 2 IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES APPEAR AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT PIR MONITOR – September 10, 2020 In terms of the individual categories, the recovery in the markets caused equity products to increase to 25% as a percentage of total AUM (from 24% in 1Q20), while balanced funds were down to 46% (from 48%) and flexible funds flat at 27%. BREAKDOWN OF PIR FUNDS BY CATEGORY (€ MN, 2Q20 DATA) AUM Share in 2Q20 Share in 1Q20 Equity 4,235 25% 24% Balanced 7,752 46% 48% Balanced high risk 395 2% 2% Balanced medium risk 2,290 14% 14% Balanced low risk 5,067 30% 31% Fixed Income 213 1% 1% Flexible 4,567 27% 27% Total AUM 16,767 100% 100% Source: Assogestioni PIR 3.0: ESTIMATES OF 2020-21E NET INFLOWS Weak PIR fund inflows in 1Q20 (€ -234mn) were due to the collapse of the markets caused by the Covid-19 crisis (FTSE Italia All-Share index -29% in 1Q20) and increased volatility, which led to a widespread sell-off. In 2Q, Traditional PIR funds (3.0) returned to slightly positive net inflows in 2Q20 (€ +58.7mn), benefitting from the market recovery (FTSE Italia All-Share index +18% in 2Q20). However, net inflows are still lacklustre because of a very conservative approach in investment choices by retail customers due to the uncertainty caused by Covid-19, in our opinion. We will have to wait until Fall to understand the performance of the products. We expect that in the second half of the year the distribution networks will once again intensify their commercial efforts on the product, as the new PIR (3.0) system, in force since January 2020, is effective for its relaunch. We therefore expect a return to positive net inflows for the traditional PIRs, albeit limited given the still very uncertain market environment. We have slightly fine-tuned our AUM and net inflows estimates for traditional PIR. We have increased AUM stock, expected now at the end of 2020 at € 17.5bn from prev. €17.3bn thanks to a better market effect, while net inflows 2020E moved to about €800mn from prev. € 1bn. PIR: ESTIMATED NET INFLOWS AND AUM EVOLUTION (€ MN) 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E Net inflows 10,902 3,950 -1,097 774 2,274 AUM 15,769 17,383 18,725 17,532 19,807 Source: Equita SIM estimates and elaborations on Assogestioni data 3 IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES APPEAR AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT PIR MONITOR – September 10, 2020 NEW ALTERNATIVE PIR FUNDS The "Decreto Rilancio" introduced new “Alternative PIR” (article 136), complementary products to the current traditional PIR funds, but with higher investment thresholds, different investment limits (at least 70% of total NAV invested in SMEs) and with the same fiscal incentives as open-end PIR funds (investments are tax exempt on the condition that they are held for at least 5 years).
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