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Free Reports Mid Small Caps Monthly 200921

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Free Reports Mid Small Caps Monthly 200921 Italian Research Milan, 21 September 2020 Performance (+). The Italian equity market (prices as at 17th September 2020) has decreased 1.0% in the last month and is down 15.8% YTD. The FTSE Italy Mid-Cap index (+1.6%) has outperformed the main index by 2.6% (+2.7% YTD on a relative basis), while the FTSE Italy Small Caps index (-0.4%) has performed +0.6% better in the last month while it is broadly in line with the main index in relative terms since the beginning of 2020. Looking at mid/small cap performances across Europe, the MSCI Europe Small Caps index has risen 1.2% in the last month, performing almost in line with Italian mid caps. Estimates (=). In light of the significant economic implications of the coronavirus outbreak, since the beginning of the year we have significantly cut our 2020 EPS estimates (-52.2%), while we have implemented a milder revision on 2021, assuming a partial recovery. Our overall estimate revision for mid-caps (-48.5% YTD) has been broadly in line with large caps, while our revision for small caps has been greater (-82.4% YTD). In the last month, we have left our mid and small cap estimates broadly unchanged (-0.3% and -1.2% on 2021 EPS, respectively). Valuations (+). If we compare YTD performance to the change in FY21 estimates over the same period, we can see that the YTD fall in market prices is much more limited than the cut to our FY21 estimates, implying a significant re- rating. Specifically, FTSE MIB stocks recorded a 17% re-rating YTD, while the figures for mid-caps and small caps are 14.5% and 22.7% respectively. This re-rating is consistent with the view that central banks will continue to adopt a dovish approach. On a P/E basis, our panel is trading at a 22.7% premium to large caps, broadly in line with the historical average premium (23%) but well above the level of one month ago (15%). The rising number of companies reporting an expected net loss this year is making this indicator less meaningful at the present time. Liquidity (-). Looking at official Italian index trends, we note that liquidity for large caps in the last month (as measured by average volumes multiplied by average prices in a specific period) has declined on the previous month, coming in 37% lower than the 1Y average. Interestingly, liquidity for mid-caps has declined 35% compared to the 1Y average, while the same metric has decreased by 11% for small caps. Average daily liquidity for our mid/small cap coverage has been Eu1,944k in the last month, up 6.2% on the corresponding period one year ago. Investment strategy. The outlook for the stock markets in 4Q20 will be defined by the struggle between two opposing forces: the virus on the one hand and economic support from Central Banks on the other. The two drivers are closely interconnected, but, in the end, an inability to control the spread of the coronavirus is likely to undermine any economic rebound. As expected, recent weeks have witnessed a rise in infections and there are worries of a general resurgence of the coronavirus as universities and schools reopen and colder weather pushes people indoors. Since the cost of financing is very low, the market has been betting on a number of speculative cases, but, in general, we remain sceptical that industrial buyers are willing to pay generous premium in this volatile environment. Similar to one month ago, our recommended portfolio focuses on companies whose businesses are related to digital transformation or ESG themes, those with visible revenue trends (too risky to play a rotation, in our view, in the absence of clear newsflow on a vaccine), or some laggards that should enjoy some relief in 2H20 on the back of encouraging indications provided on presentation of 1H20 results. As we wrote in a recent report, another investment approach is to try to play the beneficiaries from Recovery Fund / Next Generation EU plans: Italy, like other countries, is due to submit a list of projects and objectives to the EU Commission, and an unofficial draft list of projects has already circulated. We highlight in our portfolio a number of stocks that could benefit directly and indirectly. As for liquidity, we have left our PIR estimates unchanged, expecting positive inflows in 4Q20. It is worth noting that regarding “Alternative PIR”, the first ELTIF funds that are fully compliant with the “Relaunch Italy” decree have been launched and others should be presented soon. by Intermonte Research Team This material is an extract of research reports by Intermonte that have already been published and delivered to Clients. It is available for free on the Intermonte SIM website (https://www.intermonte.it) and it qualifies as a “minor non-monetary benefit” in accordance with article 12, paragraph 3, sub-paragraph b) of Commission Delegated Directive (EU) 2017/593 of 7 April 2016. Intermonte SIM S.p.A. Milan 20122 (Italy) – Galleria de Cristoforis, 7/8 - phone: +39-02-77115.1 fax: +39-02-77115.300 New York (US) - Brasil Plural Securities LLC - 545 Madison Avenue, 8th Floor, NY 10022 –phone: +1 212 388 5600 Performance Mid-Caps outperformed also in last month The Italian equity market (prices as at 17th September 2020) has decreased 1.0% in the last month and it is down 15.8% YTD. The FTSE Italy Mid-Cap index (+1.6%) has outperformed the main index by 2.6% (+2.7% YTD on a relative basis), while the FTSE Italy Small Caps index (-0.4%) has performed +0.6% better in the last month while it is broadly in line with the main index in relative terms since the beginning of 2020. Italian Market Indexes – performance analysis (prices as of 17th September 2020) % % % % % % % % Price In dex Change Change Change Change Change Change Change Change (Eu) 1 Month 3 Months 6 Months YTD 1 Year 2 Years 3 Years 5 Years FTSE Italia Mid Cap 35,104 1.6% 5.5% 34.2% -13.2% -6.9% -15.6% -14.8% 7.1% FTSE Italia Small Cap 18,942 -0.4% -0.3% 31.5% -15.9% -3.1% -12.2% -23.3% 0.0% FTSE Italia Star 39,464 3.1% 11.5% 47.9% 0.9% 13.0% 4.1% 9.1% 63.3% FTSE AIM ITALIA 6,690 0.3% -4.5% 9.9% -14.3% -17.4% -29.1% -30.9% -31.1% FTSE Italia All-Share 21,576 -1.0% 1.1% 29.3% -15.8% -9.2% -7.8% -11.9% -9.0% FTSE MIB 19,740 -1.1% 0.8% 28.9% -16.0% -9.5% -6.5% -11.2% -10.7% % % % % % % % % Relative Performance Change Change Change Change Change Change Change Change vs FTSE Italy All Share 1 Month 3 Months 6 Months YTD 1 Year 2 Years 3 Years 5 Years FTSE Italia Mid Cap 2.6% 4.4% 4.8% 2.7% 2.3% -7.9% -2.9% 16.1% FTSE Italia Small Cap 0.6% -1.4% 2.1% -0.1% 6.1% -4.5% -11.4% 8.9% FTSE Italia Star 4.1% 10.4% 18.5% 16.7% 22.2% 11.9% 21.0% 72.3% Source: Factset Looking at mid/small cap performances across Europe, the MSCI Europe Small Caps index has risen 1.2% in the last month, performing almost in line with Italian mid-caps. European Market Indexes – performance analysis % % % % % % % % Price In dex Change Change Change Change Change Change Change Change (Eu) 1 Month 3 Months 6 Months YTD 1 Year 2 Years 3 Years 5 Years MSCI Europe 123 0.5% 0.9% 26.0% -12.0% -6.3% -3.5% -4.3% 0.8% MSCI Europe Small Cap 360 1.2% 5.0% 40.8% -10.1% 0.0% -5.2% -0.7% 14.3% Source: Factset For individual stocks, in the following tables we have ranked the best and worst performers over two periods: the last month and the year to date. 2 Intermonte Mid & Small Cap Coverage – best and worst performers, 1M Best Performers Price (Eu) Market Cap (Eu mn) Perf. 1M (%) WIIT 153.5 407 24% RETELIT 2.3 378 22% SESA 79.3 1,229 13% FER R AG AM O 13.2 2,233 13% MEDIASET 1.8 2,151 13% REPLY 96.7 3,616 12% M AR R 13.8 917 11% TECHNOGYM 8.1 1,630 10% INDEL B 16.6 97 9% AS T M 18.6 2,619 7% S ALCEF G R O U P 12.5 520 7% DE' LONGHI 29.5 4,412 6% B&C SPEAKERS 9.5 105 6% CFT 2.4 38 6% MONDADORI 1.2 307 6% R AI W AY 5.7 1,556 6% GPI 6.9 110 5% CATTOLICA 5.3 915 5% DAT ALO G I C 12.3 718 4% BREMBO 8.5 2,822 4% FTSE Italia Mid Cap 2% FTSE Italia Small Cap 0% FTSE MIB -1% Worst Performers Price (Eu) Market Cap (Eu mn) Perf. 1M (%) ePRICE 0.1 21 -42% TESMEC 0.2 21 -14% S AR AS 0.5 507 -14% CERVED 6.6 1,289 -13% NOTORIOUS PICTURES 1.5 34 -13% SAFILO 0.6 166 -13% G EFR AN 4.6 66 -11% MAIRE TECNIMONT 1.5 492 -9% IERVOLINO ENTERTAINMENT 3.5 78 -9% GEOX 0.6 163 -8% BE 1.1 146 -7% ELES 2.8 30 -7% IEG 2.6 80 -6% TXT E-SOLUTIONS 7.5 98 -6% SOMEC 14.7 101 -6% RENO DE MEDICI 0.9 322 -6% BANCA SISTEMA 1.8 141 -5% FINCANTIERI 0.6 971 -5% AQ U AFI L 3.8 161 -5% OVS GROUP 0.9 202 -5% Source: Factset 3 Intermonte Mid & Small Cap Coverage – best and worst performers YTD Best Performers Price (Eu) Market Cap (Eu mn) Perf.
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