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Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation in the North Cascades Region, Washington

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United States Department of Agriculture Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation in the North Cascades Region, Washington Forest Pacific Northwest General Technical Report September Service Research Station PNW-GTR-892 2014 Non-Discrimination Policy The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination against its customers, employees, and applicants for employment on the bases of race, color, national origin, age, disability, sex, gender identity, religion, reprisal, and where applicable, political beliefs, marital status, familial or parental status, sexual orientation, or all or part of an individual’s income is derived from any public assistance program, or protected genetic information in employ- ment or in any program or activity conducted or funded by the Department. (Not all prohibited bases will apply to all programs and/or employment activities.) To File an Employment Complaint If you wish to file an employment complaint, you must contact your agency’s EEO Counselor (PDF) within 45 days of the date of the alleged discriminatory act, event, or in the case of a personnel action. Additional information can be found online at http://www.ascr.usda.gov/ complaint_filing_file.html. To File a Program Complaint If you wish to file a Civil Rights program complaint of discrimination, complete the USDA Program Discrimination Complaint Form (PDF), found online at http://www.ascr.usda.gov/ complaint_filing_cust.html, or at any USDA office, or call (866) 632-9992 to request the form. You may also write a letter containing all of the information requested in the form. Send your completed complaint form or letter to us by mail at U.S. Department of Agriculture, Director, Office of Adjudication, 1400 Independence Avenue, S.W., Washington, D.C. 20250-9410, by fax (202) 690-7442 or email at [email protected]. Persons with Disabilities Individuals who are deaf, hard of hearing or have speech disabilities and you wish to file either an EEO or program complaint please contact USDA through the Federal Relay Service at (800) 877-8339 or (800) 845-6136 (in Spanish). Persons with disabilities, who wish to file a program complaint, please see information above on how to contact us by mail directly or by email. If you require alternative means of com- munication for program information (e.g., Braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) please contact USDA’s TARGET Center at (202) 720-2600 (voice and TDD). Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program For any other information dealing with Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) issues, persons should either contact the USDA SNAP Hotline Number at (800) 221-5689, which is also in Spanish or call the State Information/Hotline Numbers. All Other Inquiries For any other information not pertaining to civil rights, please refer to the listing of the USDA Agencies and Offices for specific agency information. Editors Crystal L. Raymond is a climate change strategic advisor, City of Seattle, Seattle City Light, 700 5th Avenue, Seattle, WA 98124 (formerly, research biologist, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Pacific Wildland Fire Sciences Laboratory, Seattle, WA); David L. Peterson is a research biological scientist, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Pacific Wildland Fire Sciences Laboratory, 400 N 34th Street, Suite 201, Seattle, WA 98103; and Regina M. Rochefort is a science advisor, U.S. Department of the Interior, National Park Service, North Cascades National Park Complex, 2105 State Route 20, Sedro-Woolley, WA 98284. Cover photo by Victor Mesny Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation in the North Cascades Region, Washington Crystal L. Raymond, David L. Peterson, and Regina M. Rochefort Editors U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station Portland, Oregon General Technical Report, PNW-GTR-892 September 2014 Abstract Raymond, Crystal L.; Peterson, David L.; Rochefort, Regina M., eds. 2014. Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the North Cascades region, Washington. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-892. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 279 p. The North Cascadia Adaptation Partnership (NCAP) is a science-management partnership consisting of the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service Mount Baker-Snoqualmie and Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forests and Pacific North- west Research Station; North Cascades National Park Complex; Mount Rainier National Park; and University of Washington Climate Impacts Group. These organizations worked with numerous stakeholders over 2 years to identify climate change issues relevant to resource management in the North Cascades and to find solutions that will facilitate the transition of the diverse ecosystems of this region into a warmer climate. The NCAP provided education, conducted a climate change vulnerability assessment, and developed adaptation options for federal agencies that manage 2.4 million hectares in north-central Washington. In the Pacific Northwest, the current warming trend is expected to continue, with average warming of 2.1 °C by the 2040s and 3.8 °C by the 2080s; precipitation may vary slightly, but the magnitude and direction are uncertain. This warming will have far-reaching effects on aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Hydrologic sys- tems will be especially vulnerable as North Cascades watersheds become increas- ingly rain dominated, rather than snow dominated, resulting in more autumn/winter flooding, higher peak flows, and lower summer flows. This will greatly affect the extensive road network in the North Cascades (longer than 16 000 km), making it difficult to maintain access for recreational users and resource managers. It will also greatly reduce suitable fish habitat, especially as stream temperatures increase above critical thresholds. In forest ecosystems, higher temperatures will increase stress and lower the growth and productivity of lower elevation tree species on both the western and eastern sides of the Cascade crest, although growth of high- elevation tree species is expected to increase. Distribution and abundance of plant species may change over the long term, and increased disturbance (wildfire, insects, and invasive species) will cause rapid changes in ecosystem structure and function across broad landscapes, especially on the east side. This in turn will alter habitat for a wide range of animal species by potentially reducing connectivity and late- successional forest structure. Coping with and adapting to the effects of an altered climate will become increasingly difficult after the mid-21st century, although adaptation strategies and tactics are available to ease the transition to a warmer climate. For roads and infrastructure, tactics for increasing resistance and resilience to higher peak flows include installing hardened stream crossings, stabilizing streambanks, design- ing culverts for projected peak flows, and upgrading bridges and increasing their height. For fisheries, tactics for increasing resilience of salmon to altered hydrology and higher stream temperature include restoring stream and floodplain complex- ity, reducing road density near streams, increasing forest cover to retain snow and decrease snow melt, and identifying and protecting cold-water refugia. For vegetation, tactics for increasing resilience to higher temperature and increased disturbance include accelerating development of late-successional forest conditions by reducing density and diversifying forest structure, managing for future range of variability in structure and species, including invasive species prevention strategies in all projects, and monitoring changes in tree distribution and establishment at tree line. For wildlife, tactics for increasing resilience to altered habitat include increas- ing diversity of age classes and restoring a patch mosaic, increasing fuel reduction treatments in dry forests, using conservation easements to maintain habitat connec- tivity, and removing exotic fish species to protect amphibian populations. The NCAP facilitated the largest climate change adaptation effort on federal lands to date by including many participants from other organizations to promote an all-lands approach to addressing climate change. It achieved specific elements of national climate change strategies for the U.S. Forest Service and National Park Service, providing a scientific foundation for resource management and planning in the North Cascades region. Rapid implementation of adaptation in sustainable resource management will enhance the potential for North Cascades ecosystems to maintain long-term functionality in future decades. Keywords: Access, adaptation, climate change, fire, forest ecosystems, fisher- ies, hydrology, North Cascade Range, North Cascadia Adaptation Partnership, roads, science-management partnership, vegetation, wildlife. Contents 1 Chapter 1: Introduction Crystal L. Raymond, David L. Peterson, and Regina M. Rochefort 1 Climate Change Responses of the Forest Service and National Park Service 3 Science-Management Partnerships 5 The North Cascadia Adaptation Partnership Process 8 All-Lands Approach to Climate Change Adaptation 10 Literature Cited 15 Chapter 2: Ecological, Biogeographical, and Historical Context of the North Cascade Range Kailey Marcinkowski, Crystal L. Raymond, and Lee K. Cerveny 16 Ecological Setting 17 Cultural History of the North Cascades 18 Geography, History,
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