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Initiating Coverage | Minda Industries ICICI Direct Research Minda Industries (MININD) CMP: | 250 Target: | 300 (20%) Target Period: 12-18 months BUY April 17, 2020 Growth machine available at reasonable valuations… Minda Industries (MIL) is the flagship company of the UNO Minda group that has, over the years, evolved from a single-product, single segment player to one of the largest entities in the domestic auto ancillary space, providing Particulars solutions in areas of comfort & convenience (automotive switches, interior & exterior lighting, acoustics systems), aesthetics (alloy wheels), safety Particulars Am o u n t (airbags, sensors & controllers) and others. MIL has grown at a robust pace Market capitalisation (₹ crore) 6,555.0 in the past decade with FY10-19 consolidated revenue CAGR of 28.5% and Total Debt (FY 19, ₹ crore) 1,081.2 associated consolidated PAT CAGR at 32.5%. It was largely driven by its Cash & Inv. (FY 19, ₹ crore) 110.0 knack of early identification of product opportunities that have gone on to EV (₹ crore) 7,526.1 Coverage Initiating receive regulatory impetus or customer appeal and then addressing them 52 week H/L (₹) 426/209 through the organic as well as inorganic route. Currently, it realises stable Equity capital (₹ crore) 52.4 ~12% EBITDA margins while maintaining a capital efficient business model Face value (₹) 2 with five year average RoCE at 16%. Going forward, with amalgamation of Harita Seating and Delvis in the near term as well as organic growth in base Key Highlights businesses (especially 2-W alloy wheel segment), we expect sales and PAT Unmatched play on premiumisation to grow at a CAGR of 15% and 33%, respectively, in FY20-22E. By virtue of (alloy wheels, LED lighting), high OEM share in its consolidated sales, MIL is likely to witness demand presence in products with disruption in the near term courtesy Covid-19. However, the sharp stock regulatory tailwinds (airbags, price correction in the recent past (down 40% YTD) provides a lucrative sensors & controllers) – to spur kit entry point. We initiate coverage on MIL with a BUY rating, valuing the stock value growth at | 300 i.e. 10x EV/EBITDA on FY22E basis. Base businesses to support organic growth; recent acquisitions lend Diversified, market-leading presence – products & segments further immediate visibility Diversified player; limited EV risk MIL commands 55%, 65% market share in 4-W, 2-W switches, respectively, Track record of high & profitable ~22% in lighting, ~50% in horns (domestic) and has the largest installed 4- growth; reasonable valuations W alloy wheel capacity in India. Base businesses i.e. switches, lighting, Price chart acoustics form 38%, 22%, 12%, i.e. ~72% of consolidated sales. Its newer product lines i.e. alloy wheels, aluminium die casting, sensors & controllers 500 14,000 400 12,000 (28% of consolidated sales at present) are slated to be the growth drivers, 10,000 300 going ahead. MSIL is MIL’s key anchor client and contributes >20% to MIL 8,000 200 6,000 Research Equity Retail 4,000 sales. However, the company counts most major 2-W and PV OEMs as – 100 2,000 clients, including Hero MotoCorp, M&M, Tata Motors, Royal Enfield, HMSI, 0 0 TVS Motor and Bajaj Auto, among others. OEMs form ~90% of sales with Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Oct-19 Apr-20 aftermarket constituting the rest. The company is largely a domestic-focused Oct-18 play with India forming ~84% of consolidated revenues. Minda Industries (LHS) Nifty (RHS) Valuation & Outlook Research Analyst Shashank Kanodia, CFA Securities ICICI MIL is uniquely positioned in the domestic auto ancillary space as a provider of a wide variety of product solutions straddling established and growing [email protected] opportunities. The company is also one of the few credible players in the Jaimin Desai high growth potential segments of airbags and alloy wheels. MIL possesses [email protected] a steady state organic business riding on value migration i.e. higher kit value. We like MIL courtesy its progressive product profile, healthy capital efficiency and consistent positive CFO generation. Accordingly, we assign a BUY rating to the stock with a target price of | 300. Key Financial Summary Key Financials FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E CAGR (FY19-21E) Net Sales 4,471 5,908 5,435 6,363 7,165 14.8% EBITDA 534 725 648 732 896 17.6% EBITDA Margins (% ) 11.9 12.3 11.9 11.5 12.5 Net Profit 310 286 184 209 324 32.6% EPS (|) 11.8 10.9 7.0 7.6 11.8 P/E 21.1 23.0 35.6 32.8 21.2 RoNW (% ) 21.3 19.0 11.5 11.6 15.4 RoCE (% ) 17.8 16.6 11.3 11.8 15.0 Source: ICICI Direct Research, Company Initiating Coverage | Minda Industries ICICI Direct Research Company Background Minda Industries (MIL) is a leading multi-product auto ancillary with a Client and product-wise revenue mix at MIL diversified presence across industry segments. It is the flagship company of the UNO Minda Group that commenced operations in 1958 as a supplier of ammeters to Royal Enfield. Over time, the group has demonstrated excellent foresight in entering diverse product lines and concurrently built scale in a successful manner, evolving into a Tier-I supplier to various auto components with solutions for most major Indian OEMs across 4-W, 2-W and off road segments. It is the largest manufacturer of 2-W switches, 4-W switches and automotive horns in India and has the largest installed alloy wheel capacity in India. At | 5,909 crore, MIL’s FY19 consolidated revenues represent ~74% of the total group turnover of | 8,014 crore. MIL’s corporate history can be broadly divided into two phases - (i) Building blocks (inception to ~2012): During this time, MIL organically branched out into product lines that continue to constitute its major offerings to this day. Automotive switches, lighting and horns (38%, 22% and 12% of FY19 revenues, respectively) were added during this period. Additionally, MIL also forayed into batteries, aluminium die casting, blow moulded parts and fuel kits, among others (ii) Consolidation, JVs and acquisitions (~2012 to present): Inorganic growth through several acquisitions - Clarton Horns from Spain (2013), Rinder Group from Spain (2015), iSYS RTS from Germany (2018), Harita Seating from India (2019) along with several other JVs have marked MIL’s operations in this period, delivering manifold expansion in revenues Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research; The company continues to perform strongly via organic and inorganic Note – Client wise mix doesn’t include ‘Others’ product measures, with its presence in new age opportunities (alloy wheels, LED, air segment bags, telematics, sensors and controllers) slated to be the future growth drivers that set MIL apart from peers in the Indian auto ancillary space. Exhibit 1: MIL evolution through the years 1958 • Commenced operations as ammeter manufacturer for Royal Enfield 1960 • Ventured into automotive switches 1980 • Started manufacture of automotive lighting products 1993 • Entered 4-W switches through associate company Mindarika Pvt Ltd (later converted into subsidiary) 2000s • Forayed into batteries, blow moulded products, alternative fuel kits and aluminium die casting products 2013 • Acquired Spain's Clarton Horns - leading European horn manufacturer 2015 • Entered JV with Kosei for 4-W alloy wheels 2016 • Acquired Spain's Rinder Group, gaining access to LED technology 2017 • Entered JV with Katolec (EMS) & Onkyo (infotainement accessories) 2018 • Entered agreements for upcoming technolgies like ADAS, BS-VI related high end sensors 2019 • Acquired Harita Seating Systems, Delvis GmBH & KPIT Technologies' telematics hardware division Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research ICICI Securities | Retail Research 2 Initiating Coverage | Minda Industries ICICI Direct Research With five chief product lines (switches, lighting, acoustics, light metal technology and others), MIL has a widespread manufacturing (62 plants in seven countries), R&D (six locations) and sales presence. Its corporate structure is slightly complex, encompassing 16 direct subsidiaries, eight step down subsidiaries, eight JVs, two associates as of FY19. Exhibit 2: MIL consolidated corporate structure (as of May 2019) Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 3: Product segment wise revenue break-up FY19 2,237 1,293 717 908 754 5,909 FY18 1,475 1,159 671 585 581 4,471 India accounted for 84% of MIL’s FY19 consolidated revenues, with exports forming the remaining 16% 3,468 FY17 1,110 867 590 - 902 - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 ₹ crore Note – LMT = Light Metal Technology. The segment includes alloy wheels and aluminium die casting Switches Lighting Acoustics LMT Others business Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research; Note – ‘LMT’ segment disclosed separately from ‘Others’ from FY18. Exhibit 4: Product segment wise EBITDA margin break-up 25.0 20.0 15.0 The company’s replacement/aftermarket channel % has grown at healthy ~11.4% CAGR over the past 10.0 few years. However, it accounts for just ~9.7% of sales (FY19) 5.0 10.3 10.3 11.9 12.6 11.0 23.2 23.3 13.5 11.1 11.9 12.3 10.2 10.2 9.6 9.6 8.0 9.3 4.4 9.7 9.7 9.5 - Switches Lighting Acoustics LMT Others Consolidated FY17 FY18 FY19 Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research; Note – ‘LMT’ segment disclosed separately from ‘Others’ from FY18. ICICI Securities | Retail Research 3 Initiating Coverage | Minda Industries ICICI Direct Research MIL is a domestic-centred ancillary (exports at ~16% of revenues), primarily catering to 2-W and 4-W OEM channels (before Harita Seating acquisition). Exhibit 5: User segment wise revenue mix (FY19) Exhibit 6: Aftermarket sales growth trend (~10% of revenues) 700 573 600 504 500 438 453 372 400 49% 51% 300 ₹ crore ₹ 200 100 0 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 2-W 4-W Aftermarket sales Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research MIL has emerged as a growth machine over the years (FY10-19 consolidated revenue CAGR 28.5%) accompanied by a strong focus on profitability – with bottomline expansion outpacing topline improvement (FY10-19 consolidated PAT CAGR 32.3%).
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