Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy Model: the Case of Hong Kong.∗
Business cycles in a small open economy model: The case of Hong Kong.∗ Paulina Etxeberria Garaigortay Amaia Izaz The University of the Basque Country. January, 2011 Abstract This paper analyzes the business cycle properties of the Hong Kong economy du- ring the 1982-2004 period, which includes the financial crisis experienced in Hong Kong in 1997-98. We show that output, output growth rate and real interest rates volatilities in Hong Kong are higher than their respective average volatilities among developed economies. In this paper, we build a stochastic neoclassical small open economy model that seeks to replicate the main business cycle characteristics of Hong Kong, and through which we try to quantify the role played by exogenous Total Factor Productivity and real interest rates shocks. The main finding is that, in order to ex- plain the Hong Kong business cycle characteristics, the trend volatility has to be higher than the volatility of the transitory fluctuations around the trend, and that the coun- try risk spread is the responsible for both the high variability and its countercyclicality. Keywords: Asian Financial Crisis, Small Open Economy, Neoclassical model. JEL Classification: E13, E32, F41. ∗We thank Cruz Angel´ Echevarr´ıa for useful comments. This paper was presented at the All China Economics (ACE) International Conference, Hong Kong, 2006, XXXIII Symposium of Economic Analysis, Spain, 2007, DEGIT XVI Dynamics, Economic Growth and International Trade, Los Angeles, USA, 2009. Financial support from Universidad del Pa´ısVasco MACLAB, project IT-241-07, and Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovaci´on,project ECO2009-09732 are gratefully acknowledged. Any remaining errors are the authors' responsibility.
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