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SOUTH BULLETIN Published by the South Centre ● ● 9 February 2017, Issue 97 Shocks for Developing Countries from President Trump’S First Weeks

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SOUTH BULLETIN Published by the South Centre ● ● 9 February 2017, Issue 97 Shocks for Developing Countries from President Trump’S First Weeks SOUTH BULLETIN Published by the South Centre ● www.southcentre.int ● 9 February 2017, Issue 97 Shocks for developing countries from President Trump’s first weeks Mr. Donald Trump’s first weeks as US President have sent shockwaves around the world, and it is the devel- oping countries that will be most af- fected. This article by the South Centre’s Executive Director reviews the implications of Trump’s initial pol- icies, including the blocking of refu- gees, the impending actions to cut funding to the UN and other organi- sations, the turnaround on climate abc NEWS change and environment issues, and the turn towards trade and invest- ment protectionism. Pages 2-4 At his inauguration President Trump promised to make America great again. But his policies of America First, Buy American and Hire Americans may be at the expense of people in other countries, especially the South. Rethinking trade policy and Battle of interpret- protectionism in the Trump ing Paris Agree- era Pages 5-7 ment at COP22 Pages 13-17 Free Trade: A change of para- digm Pages 7-8 Sovereign Debt Restructurings: Impact of soft and hard laws, in- 2017 -- a thunderous clash of vestment and trade agreements politics, economies and policies Pages 20-21 Pages 9-10 UN HRC creates position of Special Rapporteur on the Right to Develop- South Centre Statements: ment Pages 23-24 G77 Handover Ceremony Page 11 South Centre Chairman's Letter TRIPS Amendment on Para 6 of Tribute on Fidel Castro Page 12 Page 19 Shocks for developing countries from President Trump’s first weeks Mr. Donald Trump’s first weeks as US President have sent the US, on the ground that they could shockwaves around the world, and it is the developing coun- pose a security threat, has caused not only anger in the affected countries but tries that will be most affected. This article by the South Cen- also uncertainty among people in other tre’s Executive Director reviews the implications of Trump’s ini- developing countries who fear they tial policies, including the blocking of refugees, the impending may also be targeted in the future. actions to cut funding to the UN and other organisations, the The executive order also suspended turnaround on climate change and environment issues, and the the admission of all refugees into the turn towards trade and investment protectionism. US. If made permanent, this measure signals the end of a long tradition of the US (in line with many other Western countries) to welcome a limited num- ber of people escaping from troubled countries. In some of these countries, the troubles that prompted them to leave resulted from interventions or interference by the US and its Western allies. Andrew Harrer Very troubling are the signs that the US is revamping its approach to inter- national cooperation. Two executive orders are being prepared to reduce the - Pool/Getty Pool/Getty Images US’ role in in the United Nations and other international organisations, ac- cording to a New York Times report. One of the draft orders calls for at least a 40% cut in US funding toward international organisations and termi- In his first days as President, Donald Trump signed many executive orders and memos including to nating funds for any international body take the US out of the TPP and to temporarily ban the entry of refugees and of travellers from seven that fit certain criteria. developing countries. The other order calls for a review of By Martin Khor ing countries won’t have the means, all current and pending treaties, and and may suffer the most. is first days in office indicate that recommendations on which negotia- H President Donald Trump intends Even close friends are not spared. tions or treaties the US should leave. to implement what he promised, with Trump signed an order fast-starting The New York Times says that if serious consequences for the future of building a wall at the US border with Trump signs the orders, the cuts could the United Nations, trade, the environ- Mexico. To add insult to injury, he severely curtail the work of UN agen- ment and international cooperation, asked Mexico to pay for the wall and cies which rely on billions of dollars in and developing countries will be most threatened to impose a 20% tax on annual US contributions. “Taken to- affected. Mexican products to finance it. He gether, the orders suggest that Mr has also discouraged US companies Trump intends to pursue his campaign Those who hoped Trump would be from moving to Mexico. more statesman-like in style and mid- promises of withdrawing the US from dle-of-the-road in policy matters after Mexicans are understandably out- international organisations. He has his inauguration had their illusions raged and the Mexican President can- expressed heavy scepticism of multilat- dashed when the new United States celled his planned trip to Washing- eral agreements such as the Paris cli- President moved straight into action to ton. Mexico has been one of Ameri- mate agreement and the UN.” fulfil his election pledges. ca’s strongest allies. If it can be treat- The US has been the major creator of ed in this manner, is there hope for the post-Second World War system of The world and the world order have others to avoid being targeted? to prepare for more major shocks. It international relations, with the United The Trump order to ban the entry Nations at its centre. The UN has will be far from business as usual. And while other powerful countries can of citizens from seven Muslim- served as a crucial universal forum for prepare tit-for-tat counter-moves when majority countries, even those hold- international discussion and coopera- President Trump strikes, most develop- ing a Green card or are working in tion, including on peace-keeping and Page 2 ● South Bulletin ● Issue 97, 9 February 2017 are also committed to provide climate- related financial assistance to develop- ing countries. At this point it is not certain wheth- er the US will remain in the Paris Agreement or even the UN Frame- work Convention on Climate Change; its withdrawal from either or both would be disastrous. It can however be expected that under Trump, the US will stop its USA USA Today funding to the Green Climate Fund, to which the Obama administration had pledged $3 billion in its initial period and delivered $1 billion. If the US Trump's executive order to temporarily ban refugees and visitors from seven countries from entering withdraws, will other countries in- the US led to protests and chaos including in airports like the Dallas airport above. crease their funding to make up for the loss of the US, or will they also economic and social issues. itself and in turning back the clock on reduce their share, thereby plunging global efforts to tackle multiple envi- the GCF into an uncertain future? It convenes leaders and representa- ronmental crises. tives of almost all countries for meet- Another major action was Trump’s ings and conferences, with resolutions Within a day of Trump’s inaugura- move to withdraw the US from the and declarations, on a wide range of tion, pages and references to climate Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) agree- current affairs. Its agencies have sup- change were removed from the White ment. He had pledged to do so but ported global and national policy mak- House website. The Environmental when he acted, on his first working ing and actions on economic develop- Protection Agency was reportedly told day, it still came as a shock. ment, health, food, the environment, to remove its web section on climate Initially Australia and New Zea- human rights, culture and education, change, though that order was later land tried to get the remaining 11 TPP natural disasters and refugees. countered. Staff at the EPA were for- bidden to issue media statements or countries to pledge they would contin- The UN has been playing a critical new scientific studies and research ue to get the TPP to enter into force. positive role in providing a venue for grants were suspended. But this has not gained traction, with developing countries to voice their Japan and Canada bluntly stating that opinions and take part in decision- Two major projects cancelled dur- the TPP is meaningless and cannot making on global affairs. The UN ing Obama’s presidency on environ- continue without the US. agencies have provided resources and mental and social grounds, the Key- Thus, the TPP has been killed. Even support to developing countries to stone XL pipeline and the Dakota ac- if in the future Trump or his successor build their national capacities for eco- cess pipeline, are being revived. The has a change of heart, the public mood nomic and social development, and in Clean Power Act, a centrepiece of the is such that the US Congress would be preventing and managing political con- Obama effort to address climate unlikely to approve. flicts. change, has been under attack. More important than Trump’s ac- Of course the UN needs to be im- And all these even before the as- tion itself is what it represents in terms proved, including in democratisation sumption of office of Trump’s nominee of the new US approach towards of the Security Council and in giving for the new EPA chief, the Oklahoma trade. The TPP was loaded to favour more say to developing countries, espe- attorney-general Scott Pruitt, who is US interests in many ways. On the cially on global economic and financial well known for having sued the EPA trade aspect, the US has lower tariffs issues on which decisions are usually 14 times.
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