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India Strategy12sep20

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India Strategy12sep20 India Strategy Event Update September 13, 2020 Be Selective in likely Mid/Small caps Rush Quick Pointers: NSE Mid Cap Index outperformed Nifty by 60% while small cap index by 43% between . NIFTY Mid/small cap index has declined 23% and 40% from 2018 peak 2013 to 2018. Mid/Small caps could witness a shift of Rs120bn and Rs220bn to Mid/small . caps till the date of compliance in Jan2021 . MF’s likely to approach SEBI for scheme reorganization and other measures Nifty increased by 9.5% upto Jan 18 while Mid cap and Small cap index saw a rout of given low liquidity and high impact cost in these segments 16% and 34% SEBI circular on Multicap funds with 25% investment each in Mid/Small caps will create a near term disruption as top 8 multi cap funds have allocation of Rs1000bn and the share of large caps is 65-90% and small cap allocation is in low to mid-single digits. Although Mid Cap/Small cap index is still 23% and Post March 20, as against 38% decline in Nifty, Mid cap and small cap index has 40% lower than 2018 peak, poor liquidity results in high impact cost. Given shown comeback with uptick of 46% and that quantum of Rs220bn flow to small caps in just 4 months, near term uptick 63% in stocks can’t be ruled out although we expect MF’s to undertake scheme organization and categorization to reduce the impact. We note that Mid-caps and small caps have outperformed Nifty since March lows by 8% and 25%, they still leave a scope of re-rating given drubbing of past two years. However, we advise a selective approach and focus on companies with strong balance sheets, corporate governance practices, brands, technology and ability to withstand shocks. Coverage Stocks . Mid Cap Picks - IRCTC, Sumitomo, Ashok Leyland, Chola, Crompton Consumer, JSPL, MGL, Emami and Mphasis as key Mid cap picks. Small Cap Picks - Bajaj Electricals, Rallis India, Inox, VIP Inds, JK Lakshmi, Rallis India, CEAT, NOCIL, Engineers India, PNC, HG Infra, Navneet Education, Music Broadcast, Teamlease and Eris Lifesciences Non Coverage Stocks . RBL Bank, NAM, Chola Holdings, Chambal fertilizers, Astec Life, Gujarat Gas, Galaxy Surfactants, . Bata India, Relaxo, ABFRL, Westlife Development, Zee Entertainment, Affelle India, Blue Star, Dixon, Polycab, TTK prestige . Endurance, Minda Inds, Escorts, Dalmia Bharat, AIA Eng., BEML, Esab India, Tata Elxsi, Mishra Dhatu, Narayana Hrudalya, Pfizer, Sanofi etc. Cyclical beaten down segments like Auto Ancillary, Infra/ Construction, Amnish Aggarwal Engineering, Bearings and Logistics are likely to stage a comeback [email protected] | 91-22-66322233 . Covid Hit segments like Media, Retail, banks, NBFC, Consumer Durables will see heightened investor interest September 13, 2020 1 India Strategy SEBI circular looks at reducing impact of 2018 categorization SEBI had created category of large caps, Mid- caps and small caps in 2018 which contributed to a sharp selloff in mid and small cap stocks as fund flow shifted from these stocks to large caps stocks. In order to diversify the underlying investments of Multi Cap Funds across the large, mid and small cap companies, SEBI has announced to partially modify the scheme characteristics of Multi Cap Funds. Minimum investment in equity & equity related instruments -75% of total assets . Minimum allocation to large cap/Mid cap and Small Cap companies is 25% of total assets for each segment . Existing Multi Cap Funds shall ensure compliance with these provisions within one month from publishing the next list of stocks by AMFI in January 2021. Multicap funds might see flow into small/mid-caps We estimate the size of various Multicap funds at Rs1400bn. Top 8 schemes led by Kotak, HDFC, Axis, MOAM and BMF account for a size of Rs1000bn. The current allocation to Mid-caps and small caps is 17% and 9%. We note that the ratio of large caps in top 10 multi cap funds ranges between 65-90% with most being close to 80%. Among these funds MOAM, HDFC and Franklin Templeton have allocation of just 3%, 7.7% and 13%. Allocations for small caps is in mid-single digits with large funds having allocation in low single digits only. We estimate a shift from large caps to Mid and Small caps aggregating Rs120bn and Rs220bn respectively. Why MF allocations to Midcaps/Small Caps are lower? We note that MF allocations to Mid/small caps have been lower and there has been very limited interest among funds for the same. Although one can’t paint all the companies with the same brush, but in general following have been the issues: . Issues with regards to high promoter pledges . Low floating stocks and trading volumes result in high impact cost at both entry and exit levels and easy manipulation The Smooth Transition Looks Unlikely We believe it is not a straight and smooth road for MF’s to shift allocation to small and Mid-caps as high volatility and difficulty in exit can hurt investor interests. Mutual fund industry is likely to approach SEBI for extension of deadline, as such they have 4 months at their disposal for the same. We believe MF’s can look at scheme mergers (Multicap with Large/Mid cap funds), shift the scheme to different segment to lessen the impact, which is dependent upon SEBI approvals and involve some time. September 13, 2020 2 India Strategy . We expect MF industry to make a slow transition and immediate knee jerk reaction looks unlikely. SEBI circular a technical factor, Don’t ignore fundamentals We believe that the current SEBI circular is a technical factor and does not alter the impact on various companies and industries in the post pandemic scenario. While we have seen sharp correction in Mid/Small caps post 2018, the fundamental changes in the business cycle and competitive position is very different than it was 2-3 years back. We also note that in beginning of 2018, small and Midcaps were trading at a premium to large caps and earnings recovery in several of these companies remains doubtful in the post Covid scenario. Covid19 has had a cascading impact on several industries and several smaller companies with weak balance sheets and shaky business models are unlikely to see recovery in the near term. Our fundamental view of large and financially/brand and technologically sound companies gaining significant ground post pandemic still holds good. While we expect sharp increase in demand for Small caps in particular, we advise caution with focus on fundamentally strong companies with strong balance sheet and viable business models. As per the current SEBI definition top 100 market cap stocks fall in the category of Large caps, 100-250 are Mid-caps and rest are Small caps. Given the likely euphoria and impact cost we have limited our Mid cap recommendations to stocks upto Rs200bn market cap and small caps have been the ones with market cap exceeding Rs10bn. We have also tried to look at their correction from 2018 peak, daily volumes and overall fundamentals. NIFTY Small cap and Mid Cap Index has seen sharp decline post January 2018 Nifty 50 Index NSE 50 Midcap Index NSE 50 Small Cap Index 300 250 200 150 100 50 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-10 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Apr-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Apr-18 Apr-19 Oct-19 Oct-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Oct-18 Apr-20 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-20 Jan-14 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-13 Source: PL September 13, 2020 3 India Strategy NSE Small Cap Index declined sharply post Jan 2018 Indexed Nifty 50 Index NSE 50 Midcap Index NSE 50 Small Cap Index NSE Mid Cap Index outperformed Nifty by 60% while small cap index by Jan-13 112 111 103 43% between 2013 to 2018. Jan-14 119 104 95 Jan-15 157 162 146 Nifty increased by 9.5% upto Jan 18 Jan-16 151 174 156 while Mid cap and Small cap index saw a rout of 16% and 34% Jan-18 210 280 257 Jan-19 205 223 172 Post March 20, as against 38% Jan-20 230 234 171 decline in Nifty, Mid cap and small Mar-20 157 148 94 cap index has shown comeback with uptick of 46% and 63% Sep-20 217 216 154 Source: PL Research Key Mid Cap Picks . Among our coverage universe for Mid-Caps, we have zeroed on these 10 stocks to play this transition. We believe these companies have structural tailwinds and strength in their respective businesses. IRCTC is a play on Online ticketing, Ashok Leyland on expected CV recovery from 1Q22 while Chola is a CV financer with strong pedigree . MGL is a play on CGD with low PE and attractive dividend yield . Crompton Consumer is a steady performer amongst consumer electrical companies and has strong balance sheet . JSPL enjoys highest EBIDTA/Ton and is a play on structural steel story and deleveraging of balance sheet . Sumitomo Chemical has the potential to emerge as a strong sourcing base of parent which has large number of patents in Agrochemicals . Some of these names have been recommended in context of current theme. Consequently, some of the coverage stocks might have target prices lower than CMP, however long term outlook on these names is positive September 13, 2020 4 India Strategy PL Coverage Picks Mcap Mcap Revenue Gr.
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