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Amazon Vs. Walmart AMAZON VS. WALMART REAL VISION CASE COMPETITION Team: Fletcheros By: Nathan Cohen-Fournier, Adolfo Gatti, Angelica Nouhi Representing the Fletcher School of Law & Diplomacy, Tufts University TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract Page 2 Contextual Analysis Page 3 Amazon Analysis Page 4 Walmart Analysis Page 8 Valuations Page 11 Exhibits Page 15 End Notes Page 27 1 ABSTRACT Choosing to invest between Amazon and Walmart seems, at first glance, a straight- forward decision. Who wouldn’t invest in the new, exciting player on the block? One is a promising company built on growth and the vision of a brilliant entrepreneur; the other has become the largest by revenues and number of employees. One incarnates financial health, proven track record, and stability; the other, astronomical stock returns accompanied by high volatility and uncertainty. We chose the financial strength and consistency of Walmart. We found Walmart’s stock to be fairly valued. Although financial returns are not expected to be massive, we believe a steady dividend from a healthy company is the best choice in a turbulent global economy. Amazon surely has much to offer in promising e-commerce and cloud computing markets. Nevertheless, many competitors are eyeing these markets, capital requirements are increasing with sales, and numerous socio-economic risks remain. In fact, we found the stock price of Amazon to be overvalued by roughly 30%. 2 An investment for the next ten years, Amazon versus Walmart: which to choose? We picked the stability of Walmart over the uncertainty of Amazon. Throughout this paper, we will expose the rationale for our investment thesis. CONTEXTUAL ANALYSIS During the summer of 2015 Amazon leapfrogged Walmart in terms of market value. This is the story of two giants facing each other on various battlefields; the biggest being the US retail industry. The retail industry follows macro-economic trends and has been subject to several changes due to the advent of technology. A key contributor of transformation in the industry has been e-commerce. In the US, e-commerce accounted for 20% of the growth in the industry, which totaled $304.9 billion in 20141 (Exhibit 1). A necessary condition for e-commerce is internet access: according to the World Bank, 40.7% of world’s population in 2014 had internet access.2 In the US, e-commerce represented 6.4% of the total retail industry during 2014, and is projected to increase to 8.9% by year-end 2018 (Exhibit 2).3 Amazon is the leader holding 16% of the market share,4 whereas Walmart has just recently entered the fray. Additionally, mobile commerce is gaining a stronger imprint, and is estimated to reach $132.69 billion by 2018 or 27% of total e-commerce sales (Exhibit 3).5 3 AMAZON ANALYSIS Since its IPO in 1997, Amazon’s market capitalization has increased by 53,040%, growing from $441 million in Q2-2007 to $235 billion in Q3-2015.6 While the company has seduced the masses and become a Wall-Street darling, it only recently started to generate much anticipated profits. Amazon is considered by many a technology stock. Indeed, few companies have spent as much in CAPEX and R&D as Amazon, which has invested 12% of its total sales since 2000.7 Since 2010, the firm expanded its square footage at a CAGR of 39% while providing facilities with state-of-the-art machinery, including recently acquired Kiva robots.8 Amazon’s capacity to branch out from its core Source: Amazon businesses is exemplified by Amazon Web Services (AWS), the company’s new cloud computing service, which has grown at a CAGR of 52% since 2010.9 Amazon has been able to translate its technological advantages into tangible benefits for consumers. According to a study conducted by RBC, Amazon is the leader per convenience, price, and selection in the e-commerce industry,10 giving it a dominating position and placing it first on US brand rankings.11 The aura that surrounds Amazon’s success results from the charisma of its founder, Jeff Bezos. Bezos has been nimble at acquiring talent and pushing employees to constantly create and develop new solutions, while maintaining the focus on customers. “Above all else, align with customers. Win when they win. Win only when they win.”12 4 In order to meet the lofty valuation metrics attributed to its business, Amazon has to pursue its growth streak. Growth is the fundamental pillar of Amazon’s strategy. AWS is expected to be the primary driver of the firm’s progress, as it maintains a leading position within the cloud market.13 Amazon has been heavily investing in AWS and over a third of the firm’s PP&E can be attributed to this segment.14 Forrester Research estimates that public cloud computing will rise from $58 billion in 2013 to $191 billion by 2020.15 High-profile competitors such as Google, IBM, and Microsoft are also seeking greater market share. Who is better positioned to capture growth? Amazon the retailer or the Silicon Valley giants? In such a competitive environment, price cuts will continue to be the norm16, potentially eroding Amazon’s profit margins and market share which stands, today, at nearly 30%.17 AWS Quarterly Sales and EBIT % $3.000 30% $2.000 20% $1.000 10% $0 0% 2014 Q1 2014Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 AWS Sales EBIT % Source: Amazon Quarterly Results (2014-Q1 to 2015-Q3) Growth is also expected to come from international markets. Since 2010, growth in international sales has been lagging US rates (Exhibit 4).18 Although we believe US operations will be the primary driver of Amazon’s newly found profitability, we foresee high CAPEX investments in international markets. Between 2012 and 2014, international operations accounted for 40% of sales, 33% of assets and, yet, only 22% of CAPEX.19 We see a future alignment in the long-term, with more investments concentrated internationally. 5 Amazon US and International Sales and Growth $60.000 100% $50.000 80% $40.000 60% $30.000 40% $20.000 $10.000 20% $0 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 US revenues International Revenues US Growth International Growth Source: CapIQ Amazon Financial Statements (2000-2014 actuals) Amazon’s ability to maintain its dominating position in e-commerce is under threat. Once competitors catch up with Prime and same-day shipping (Walmart and Ebay already have similar offerings), consumers will demand even lower prices and differentiation. In this regard, brick- and-mortars have the lead, due to immediacy, trial-touch-feel, and ease-of-return. Amazon’s future is filled with infinite, yet uncertain, possibilities, ranging from drone deliveries to supply chain robotics. The company is also starting to play into the booming B2B e- commerce market with its Amazon Business segment, competing head-to-head with Alibaba. However, Amazon’s poor human-resource practices are increasingly likely to spur negative press. Until now, consumers’ perspective have remained overwhelmingly positive despite the fact that Amazon is destroying small businesses, mistreating employees, and using tax havens to enhance its bottom-line. Sooner rather than later, this will damage the company’s reputation. In addition, its high turnover is creating new competitive threats: ex-employees have founded FlipKart in India, and Jet.com in the US. 6 If the company is able to sustain AWS’ leadership, diversify its portfolio, and resist potential PR damages, it will remain the undisputed leader. We doubt the future will be so bright due to our expectations of increased competitive pressures from all angles. Investors have reacted positively to Amazon’s Q3 2015 results, with the stock surging by 10% upon the announcement.20 Do profits matter? As the saying goes, cash is king. The company’s operating cash flows (OCF) have been steadily increasing; yet, a large part of it stems from depreciation, which represented roughly 60% of OCF in 2014 (Exhibit 5).21 Moreover, a portion of Amazon’s OCF has been driven by a negative cash conversion cycle. Capital is freed- up by stretching payables and by pushing inventory to third-party sellers, who account for over 40% of units sold.22 The cash conversion cycle has been worsening and has negatively impacted free cash flow for the first time since 2000 (Exhibit 6).23 Furthermore, since 2010, debt and equivalents have risen from $2.4 billion to $20.2 billion in 2014,24 representing a CAGR of 70% and a debt-to-equity ratio of 150%. The leverage is even more accentuated when taking into account operating leases. In addition, the return on invested capital (ROIC) has been highly volatile, lingering in the ‘value destruction’ zone of below 10% (Exhibit 7).25 It seems as though Amazon’s businesses are becoming more capital intensive as they grow. This could prove highly problematic as the firm has been filling the gap with debt and debt equivalents. Revenue growth and EBITDA are always at the front-page of any Amazon story. Having looked under the carpet, we find that the situation is not so bright. Under-pressure margins, ongoing tax investigations in the EU, and potential PR spills all add up to create serious challenges for Amazon’s sustainable long-term cash flows, let alone profits. Amazon promises lucrative returns in indisputably growing markets. On the flip-side, its eagerness to expand into 7 uncharted territories exposes it to a number of risks. Preeminently, we believe the firm risks losing focus on its core business. WALMART ANALYSIS Today, Walmart remains the US largest retailer and the world’s largest company by revenues.26 Its market dominance and competitive strengths have been achieved through the synergetic combination of eight distinctive factors: low prices, cost consciousness, product selection, supplier power, technology, expansion, human capital and customer service.
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