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Colorado Aerotropolis Economic and Financial Analysis

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Colorado Aerotropolis Economic and Financial Analysis Colorado Aerotropolis Visioning Study Colorado Aerotropolis Economic and Financial Analysis Prepared by and May 2016 Table of Contents Executive Summary .......................................................................................... 1 Conclusion .................................................................................................. 4 Introduction and Overview ................................................................................. 7 Study Vision ................................................................................................ 7 Study Objectives .......................................................................................... 7 Study Area .................................................................................................. 8 Areas of Focused Economic Development ............................................................. 8 IGA Amendment Pilot Program ........................................................................................................ 8 Concentrated Development Area .................................................................................................... 9 Economic and Financial Analysis ......................................................................... 11 Employment Estimates .................................................................................. 11 Absorption Rates ......................................................................................... 16 Residential Development ............................................................................... 17 Employment Centers .................................................................................... 18 Public Tax Revenue Streams ........................................................................... 25 Increases in Property Taxes ........................................................................................................... 26 Increases in Sales Taxes .................................................................................................................. 27 Development Impact Fees .............................................................................................................. 27 Summary of Revenue Generation Potential ................................................................................ 28 Observations...................................................................................................................................... 32 Infrastructure Construction Jobs ...................................................................... 33 Observations...................................................................................................................................... 33 Jobs Summary ............................................................................................ 33 Infrastructure Investment ................................................................................. 33 Conclusions .................................................................................................. 35 References ................................................................................................... 36 Figures Figure 1 Summary of Aerotropolis Scenario Growth Potential Above Business as Usual.......... 4 Figure 2 Study Area for the Colorado Aerotropolis Visioning Study .................................. 8 Figure 3 Potential Development Nodes Along the DIA Property Boundary .......................... 9 Figure 4 South and West Concentrated Development Area .......................................... 10 May 2016 Page i Colorado Aerotropolis Visioning Study Colorado Aerotropolis Economic and Financial Analysis Figure 5 Growth Allocation under Aerotropolis Scenario ............................................. 11 Figure 6 Aerotropolis Study Area and all Employment Centers...................................... 19 Figure 7 Employment Centers in DRCOG’s Greater Transportation Region ........................ 19 Figure 8 Annual Square Footage Growth of Employment Centers .................................. 22 Figure 9 Composition of Aerotropolis Revenue Streams .............................................. 28 Figure 10 Aerotropolis Near-term 2040 Transportation Network ................................... 34 Tables Table 1 Growth Potential of an Aerotropolis Scenario ................................................. 2 Table 2 BAU Scenario and Aerotropolis Scenario Revenue Streams (2015-2040) .................. 3 Table 3 Aerotropolis Scenario Opportunities and Challenges ......................................... 6 Table 4 Aerotropolis Employment Projections ......................................................... 12 Table 5 Future Commercial Square Footage Estimates ............................................... 13 Table 6 2040 Jobs Distributed Across Employment Sectors and Associated Land Uses—Low SF Scenario ...................................................................................................... 13 Table 7 2040 Jobs Distributed Across Employment Sectors and Associated Land Uses—High SF Scenario ...................................................................................................... 14 Table 8 Potential 2040 Commercial Development—Low SF Scenario ............................... 15 Table 9 Potential 2040 Commercial Development—High SF Scenario .............................. 16 Table 10 Net Annual Absorption Rates .................................................................. 16 Table 11 Aerotropolis Growth as a Percentage of Total Existing and Projected Market Inventory ..................................................................................................... 17 Table 12 Calculation of Aerotropolis-related Housing Needs ........................................ 18 Table 13 Aerotropolis-related Residential Development in the CDA (2040) ....................... 18 Table 14 Commercial Square Footage at Employment Centers ..................................... 21 Table 15 Distribution of Commercial Square Footages at Employment Centers .................. 21 Table 16 Growth of Commercial Space at Area Employment Centers 1970-2016 ................ 25 Table 17 Calculation of Net Increase in Property Values Associated with Aerotropolis Low SF Scenario ...................................................................................................... 26 Table 18 Calculation of Net Increase in Property Values Associated with Aerotropolis High SF Scenario ...................................................................................................... 26 Table 19 Calculation of Net Increase in Property Values Associated with Aerotropolis High SF Scenario ...................................................................................................... 28 Table 20 Revenue Generation Potential Associated with Low SF Aerotropolis Scenario ........ 29 Table 21 Revenue Generation Potential Associated with High SF Aerotropolis Scenario ....... 30 Table 22 Value of Aerotropolis-related Real Estate Development Construction (Low SF Scenario) ..................................................................................................... 31 May 2016 Page ii Colorado Aerotropolis Visioning Study Colorado Aerotropolis Economic and Financial Analysis Table 23 Value of Aerotropolis-related Real Estate Development Construction (High SF Scenario) ..................................................................................................... 31 Table 24 Aerotropolis-related Real Estate Development Direct and Indirect Construction Jobs ................................................................................................................. 32 Table 25 Calculation of Direct and Indirect Jobs Created ........................................... 33 May 2016 Page iii Colorado Aerotropolis Economic and Financial Analysis Executive Summary Bordering multiple jurisdictions and surrounded by several thousand acres of undeveloped land, Denver International Airport (DIA) is a regional asset with immense economic development potential. The ability to realize DIA’s long-term economic potential by attracting additional airport-related uses is enhanced by coordinated regional land use planning and infrastructure investment. The Colorado Aerotropolis Visioning Study defines an Aerotropolis Scenario that achieves this vision of coordinated planning and investment through increased interagency and inter-jurisdictional collaboration between cities, counties, utilities, and the airport authority. This economic and financial analysis examines some of the key quantitative economic and fiscal benefits to the Colorado region of implementing an Aerotropolis Scenario—increased employment, government revenues, real estate development, and commercial activity. In developing the assumptions and methodology for estimating benefits, this analysis used the Denver Regional Council of Governments (DRCOG) 2040 population and employment projections as a baseline scenario representing “business as usual.” The Business as Usual (BAU) Scenario assumes there is little coordinated land use planning or additional infrastructure investment associated with an Aerotropolis Scenario. The fundamental tenet is that, by opening up additional land for development and creating favorable market conditions through infrastructure investment, an Aerotropolis Scenario would induce additional growth above and beyond what DRCOG currently projects for the Aerotropolis study area. It is possible
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