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Solar Prosumer Business Models in Sweden

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Solar Prosumer Business Models in Sweden Solar Prosumer Business Models in Sweden Sam Molavi William Bydén May 2018 Bachelor of Science Thesis KTH School of Industrial Engineering and Management Energy Technology EGI-2018 TRITA-ITM-EX 2018:427 SE-100 44 STOCKHOLM Bachelor of Science Thesis EGI-2018 TRITA-ITM-EX 2018:427 Solar Prosumer Business Models in Sweden Sam Molavi William Bydén Approved Examiner Supervisor Björn Laumert Rafael Eduardo Guédez Mata Commissioner Contact person Abstract In this research, four of the most common business models for Swedish photovoltaic (PV) prosumers were analyzed through a business case study. The costs and revenues related to adopting these prosumer business models for a household were examined and their economic viability was measured using the Net Present Value- and Payback method. The markets of PV and Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) in Sweden were researched in order to provide an overview of the potential for future prosumers in Sweden. Relevant actors and business models have been described and analyzed. Furthermore, Sweden’s energy structure as a whole and its potential transformation to a more decentralized and prosumer friendly system has been discussed. The business case study results show that the most economically beneficial business model for prosumers today in Sweden is through a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA). The business model where the prosumer owns a PV system proved to be the second best option which also was calculated to be economically beneficial. Leasing a PV system or owning a combined PV- and BESS were proven to not be economically beneficial. Sammanfattning I den här rapporten har fyra av de vanligaste affärsmodellerna för Svenska solcells-prosumers analyserats genom en business case study. Kostnaderna och intäkterna kopplade till att uppta dessa affärsmodeller för ett hushåll har undersökts och deras ekonomiska duglighet har mätts med nuvärdesmetoden och återbetalningsmetoden. Marknaderna för solceller och energilagringssystem av batterier i Sverige har undersökts för att ge en översikt av möjligheterna för framtida prosumers i Sverige. Relevanta aktörer och affärsmodeller har beskrivits och analyserats. Vidare har Sveriges energistruktur och dess potentiella övergång till ett mer decentraliserat och prosumervänligt system diskuterats. Resultaten från vår business case study visar att den mest ekonomiskt lönsamma affärsmodellen för prosumers idag i Sverige är genom ett energiköpeavtal. Affärsmodellen att ha ett egenägt solcellssystem var det näst bästa alternativet och visade sig också vara ekonomiskt lönsamt. Att hyra ett solcellssystem eller att äga ett solcellsystem i kombination med ett energilagringssystem av batterier visade sig vara olönsamma ur ett ekonomiskt perspektiv. Contents 1 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 8 2 Constraints................................................................................................................ 8 3 Purpose ..................................................................................................................... 9 4 Method ...................................................................................................................... 9 5 Background ............................................................................................................... 9 5.1 History and overview of electricity market in Sweden ..................................... 9 5.2 Solar PV ........................................................................................................... 10 5.2.1 History of PV in Sweden .......................................................................... 10 5.2.2 The PV market in Sweden today .............................................................. 10 5.2.3 Market and price evolution ....................................................................... 11 5.2.4 Relevant actors .......................................................................................... 12 5.3 BESS - Battery Energy Storage System ........................................................... 12 5.3.1 Batteries ..................................................................................................... 12 5.3.2 BESS - an overview .................................................................................... 12 5.3.3 The BESS market in Sweden ..................................................................... 13 5.3.4 Relevant actors .......................................................................................... 13 5.3.5 Capital subsidy for self-produced electricity storage ............................... 14 5.4 PV technology ................................................................................................... 14 5.5 Technical difficulties ........................................................................................ 14 5.6 Existing prosumer business models ................................................................ 15 5.6.1 Prosumer ownership of a grid connected PV system ............................... 15 5.6.2 Power purchase agreement contract ......................................................... 15 5.6.3 Leasing contract ........................................................................................16 5.6.4 Prosumer ownership of a grid connected PV- and BESS .........................16 5.6.5 Prosumer ownership of a PV- and BESS system not connected to the grid 17 6 Business Case Study ................................................................................................ 17 6.1 Assumptions .................................................................................................... 18 6.2 Input ................................................................................................................ 18 6.3 Parameters .......................................................................................................19 6.4 Calculation of solar production ...................................................................... 20 6.5 Methodology..................................................................................................... 21 7 Results .................................................................................................................... 24 8 Sensitivity Analysis ................................................................................................. 26 9 Discussion ............................................................................................................... 27 9.1 Non-economic perspective ............................................................................. 28 9.2 Possible improvements of the model .............................................................. 28 10 Conclusions ......................................................................................................... 29 11 Suggestions for future research .......................................................................... 30 12 List of references ................................................................................................. 31 12.1 Interviews ......................................................................................................... 31 12.2 Other sources ................................................................................................... 31 13 Appendices.......................................................................................................... 35 13.1 Appendix 1: Household appliances and usage ............................................... 35 13.2 Appendix 2: Electrical appliance usage pattern on weekdays ....................... 36 13.3 Appendix 3: Electrical appliance usage pattern on Saturdays and Sundays . 37 List of figures Figure 1: Percentage of different types of solar connections ....................................... 10 Figure 2: Cumulative installed PV in Sweden .............................................................. 10 Figure 3: Total costs for PV in America......................................................................... 11 Figure 4: Net Present Value of each investment .......................................................... 24 Figure 5: The payback time of an own PV system and an own PV- and BESS. ........... 25 Figur 6: The NPV of the investments: sensitivity analysis. ......................................... 26 Figur 7: Payback time: Sensitivity analysis .................................................................. 26 Nomenclature BESS - Battery Energy Storage System NPV - Net Present Value PPA - Power Purchase Agreement PV - Photovoltaic Prosumer - Entity producing and consuming electricity. Wp - Solar modules are rated in watt peak and it is defined as the module’s power output during full solar radiation. 1 Introduction The need for new innovative ways to support environmentally friendly electricity sources has never been as big as now. One of the major technologies looking to disrupt the industry is solar PV (McKinsey, 2014). However as for any new technology, business models need to be developed in order to fully enable it to become functional for mass scale use. The traditional power production from nuclear and carbon, and co-generation from bio or fossil fuels will gradually be replaced by renewables as wind and solar to a certain extent. The transformation brings both challenges and opportunities for the energy system as a whole. In Sweden the Photovoltaic (PV) market has grown
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