Krause Fund Research Spring 2021 Anheuser-Busch InBev (NYSE: BUD) April 15, 2021 Consumer Staples – Alcoholic Beverages Stock Rating: HOLD Analysts Target Price: $69 - $75 Kallie Klopfenstein |
[email protected] DCF Model: $74.06 Lauryn Vaske |
[email protected] 2021 Relative P/E: $72.27 2022 Relative P/E: $68.51 Investment Thesis Price Data We recommend a HOLD rating for Anheuser-Busch InBev due to a decreasing global Current Price: $67.73 market share and a mature balance sheet, while continuing to exhibit a trend-following 52-Week Range: $37.93 - $72.41 strategy. The stock offers between a 1.9% and 10.7% upside to investors. Key Statistics Drivers of Thesis: Losing market share: We expect global volume sales to rebound by 5.7% in 2021. Market Capitalization (B): 104.1 In 2022 and beyond, we project mature markets to have mostly negative volume Shares Outstanding (M): 1,646 sales growth, while we estimate emerging markets to have low-single-digit growth Avg 2, 3, 4 yr mthly beta: 1.60 of 1.5%-4.0%. We project 50bps of global market share loss each year. Fwd Price/Earnings: 22.08 Mature balance sheet: AB InBev’s significant debt obligations lower the amount of cash flow available for product innovation. Each year we project that roughly Price/Earnings (LTM): (208.2) 13% of all revenues will go towards debt repayment. Financial Metrics Trend followers: AB relies on their brand name to stay relevant when following 2020 Revenue 46,881 trends. We believe their trend following strategy will result in consistently low 2021E Revenue 50,893 volume sales growth of roughly 1.62% globally after 2021.