USING A SPATIAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL TO QUANTIFY THE BENEFITS OF TURKEY’S WATER PROJECT Working paper presented at the Association of American Geographers Annual Meeting, February 2012 J.M. Fisch Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ Columbia Law School, New York, NY Author contact information: J.M. Fisch 504 West 110th Street New York, NY, 10025 Email:
[email protected] ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The author is grateful to Ambassador Robert Finn and Professor John Waterbury for their help, advice, and support. Ambassador Finn, the author’s senior thesis advisor, possessed a depth of knowledge about Turkey and about the thesis-writing process that made him an essential resource. Professor Waterbury inspired the author’s interest in this topic, provided invaluable research guidance, and helped the author transform his thesis into publication format. This paper is based on an undergraduate senior thesis submitted to the Woodrow Wilson School at Princeton University. The author thanks the Princeton Environmental Institute Grand Challenges Program and the Woodrow Wilson School for providing research funding. The text of the senior thesis is available at http://www.columbia.edu/~jmf2143/fisch_thesis.pdf. TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract 3 Introduction 4 Background 6 Approach 8 Estimating Runoff Modeling Tigris and Euphrates Flow Rates 12 Results of the Runoff Model 16 Estimating Benefits Modeling the Benefits of Project Components 17 Modifications to the Model 21 Limitations and Caveats 25 Results of the Benefit Model 26 Conclusions 31 Notes 33 Tables 35 Table Captions 40 Figures 42 Figure Captions 48 References 49 2 ABSTRACT This paper proposes a novel method for estimating the benefits of the Southeast Anatolia Project (GAP), a series of hydroelectric dams and irrigation networks under construction along the Tigris and Euphrates rivers in Southeastern Turkey.