CLEM SUNTER’S LOW ANARCHY ODDS ARE WHERE to from ROAD to ANARCHY OMINOUS - HEYSTEK HERE for SA? Biznews Digest: Special Report the RATIONAL PERSPECTIVE
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PAGE 7 PAGE 14 PAGE 19 FREE LUNCH OF THE THOUGHT LEADER// OPINION// FORWARD-LOOKING// INVESTING WORLD CLEM SUNTER’S LOW ANARCHY ODDS ARE WHERE TO FROM ROAD TO ANARCHY OMINOUS - HEYSTEK HERE FOR SA? BizNews Digest: Special Report THE RATIONAL PERSPECTIVE WWW.BIZNEWS.COM JULY 2021 BIZNEWSCOM Will SA rebound – or is worse to come? By Alec Hogg* centre of Gauteng, the plan involved dispatching young tribal Zulus armed with automatic rifles into nyone reflecting on my Zulu-dominated communities. They homeland’s fresh rock offered their fellows an opportunity bottom would do well to to loot shopping malls, promising Arecall our trait of ascribing much protection, zero personal risk and higher weighting to bad news no consequences. than good. Esteemed researchers, Jason McCormick, a shopping Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman centre developer who was on site among them, quantify it at nine- defending these assets during SA’s to-one. But Kahneman also week of shame, says apart from preaches WYSIATI – What You shooting at security guards to open See Is All There Is. The optics the way for the mob, the mini-impis were very bad indeed for South specifically targeted fire-fighting Africa during the week running equipment to increase the damage up to July 18, birthday of its deity of post-looting arson. Nelson Mandela. The plan worked well in most parts The country’s parlous state was of KZN, especially the capital city captured during its risk-averse Pietermaritzburg, the commercial president’s televised address two centre Durban, and in major rural nights before the five day orgy towns Newcastle and Ladysmith. of unrestrained plunder peaked. Large shopping centres were robbed, Cyril Ramaphosa, attempted trashed and burnt. It was only reformer of the ruling African through the intervention of local National Congress (ANC), was communities that anything was left bereft of ideas. On eNCA, a live box © Zapiro (All Rights Reserved). Originally published in Daily Maverick. standing. alongside the presidential lecture Similar looting orgies were showed young men looting a SA into the foreground of a global kms - 30% of the province - one fifth Overlaid onto a stagnant economy, instigated in the commercial centres branch of the national blood donor tend where dysfunctional nation the size of England. The king retains SA’s pre-Zuma budget surplus of towns near the provincial capital. service at a burning shopping mall. states will split into smaller units. many privileges of feudal rulers, became a massive deficit, funded In places like Mooi River, Richmond That pretty much summed up what Other Afrikaner leaders talk of the including a generous state stipend. by a trebling in the debt to GDP and Greytown, thousands of small was going down. unrest as a spark to create a nation Also, he promoted institutionalised ratio from 26% to the current 80%. businesses were wiped out, many of Citizens in were abandoned by of “communities of communities”. polygamy, an example followed by In December 2017, most of the which had served local communities the state’s security services in It has also accelerated already tribal subjects. Among them Jacob nation celebrated when Zuma’s for decades. their hour of greatest need. Not significant momentum for secession Zuma, he of four wives and 26 anointed successor, former wife In Gauteng, attacks on shopping surprisingly, they now question by the well governed Western Cape, children, whom the ANC appointed Nkozasana was narrowly beaten centres were executed in Zulu- whether this fresh rock bottom the only province of nine not ruled the country’s president in 2009. by Ramaphosa at the ANC’s dominant areas often close to is made of granite or sandstone. by Ramaphosa’s ANC. In Zuma, the ANC chose a poor presidential elective conference. single sex hostels which are home Will we finally rebound – or is it What is the rational mind to make director, especially for a modern Since his deal-driven victory, to migrant workers from rural KZN. a portent of even worse to come? of all this? economy. More comfortable in an Ramaphosa, raised in Soweto by a For five days and nights, for the most Right now it’s a tossup. Applying Kahneman’s WYSIATI, it “ibheshu” (calf skin apron covering police sergeant father and mostly part the state’s protective services Futurist Clem Sunter, a national is obvious whatever his other failings, the butt) than besuited, while in schooled in the family’s Venda tribal were either completely absent or treasure whose 1980s “High Road, from the many interviews on BizNews office Zuma famously told a live TV homeland, has publicly campaigned mere spectators. They did not apply Low Road” scenarios nudged the during the chaos, Ramaphosa is audience that all other continents to end corruption. Under his the most basic mob-dispersing Apartheid establishment towards correct is ascribing the July 2021’s would fit into Africa, adding that protection, the Zondo Commission weapons like water cannons or tear peaceful settlement, reckons full civil unrest to ethnicity. the continent’s biggest drawback into State Capture has ventured well gas. This supports the view of some blown anarchy is now a 50:50 call. Evidence suggests it was an was lacking a major river. He beyond what was intended by its observers, particularly in KZN, that Prior to the riots he put it at 30%. attempted coup engineered by tribal also publicly mused how, given initiator, the same Jacob Zuma. the police was complicit. On the upside, leaders of Zulus, descendants of Shaka, victors dictatorial power, he’d quickly “fix” The anti-corruption attack’s red In the middle of the chaos, organisations around which long- at Isandlawana, and comfortably the SA. letter day was on July 8th when McCormick’s company even besieged Afrikaners have massed, largest single group in a country With hindsight, it is now clear Zuma was escorted to jail. Unrest issued a desperate press release are swinging from despair to whose 11 official languages reflect that Zuma’s ascension unleashed a which left more than 300 dead and begging law enforcement agencies cautious optimism. its cultural diversity. plunder of national resources. This directly cost over R30bn in looting to help its mall in Thembisa after a Among them long-time pessimist There are 10m Zulus in their occurred through industrial scale and wilful damage to infrastructure, “significant attack from high calibre, Frans Cronjé, outgoing CEO of KwaZulu-Natal heartland, a sixth of theft and the dispensing of largesse began within hours of Zuma’s live ammunition throughout last the 92-year-old Institute of Race the national population and a rich to favoured groups like unionised incarceration. night.” Relations, is suddenly upbeat. prize for ambitious politicians. public servants, university students It was well organised. Focused in Because he finally sees hope – Many live on land owned by the Zulu and 18m recipients of social grants KwaZulu-Natal and Zulu-dominated Continues on Page 2 believing the chaos could catalyse king’s Ingonyama Trust’s 28 000 sq (in a population of 58m). pockets in the country’s commercial 2 | JULY 2021 WWW.BIZNEWS.COM SA RIOTS Will SA rebound – or is worse to come? ike McCormick’s shopping centres, the two day battle for the Alex Mall in Gauteng communities and more freedom from the the middle class, especially in KZN, - where a fire-fight lasted hours - was only won socialist controlled centre. Many previously were abandoned to their own devices. after taxi drivers arrived later in the night and cowed citizens have suddenly found a voice. L On the reasonable assumption that once started shooting back with live ammunition The once inconceivable end of ANC rule looters finished off the malls they would head (the company’s law-abiding security guards in 2024’s national election now is widely for suburbia, local communities coalesced into were restricted to rubber bullets and birdshot). predicted. self-defence units to protect their homes. The taxi drivers were inside the fortress at the On the flip side, there is a very real danger Barricades were erected and manned through Thembisa Mall before sundown. that the ANC government will double the night by armed citizens. Many reported In KZN, Pietermaritzburg’s biggest shopping down on ruinous economic policies, “scouts” looking for weak points. In numerous centre. The Liberty Mall, was saved after destructive social engineering and targeting cases, such newly created “Dad’s Armies” were hundreds of heavily armed taxi drivers of minorities. Despite GDP per capita forced to face down looting mobs. appeared very publicly on the scene, clearly having fallen each year on the past decade Appallingly, in a number of cases in KZN the spoiling for a fight. and unemployment ballooning to over 40%, local (Zulu) SA Police instructed defending The situation in KZN only began turning after the archaic Development State and National citizens to stand down. They refused. In SA Police members from other parts of the Democratic Revolution ideology is very much Ballito, community members informed the country were flown in. It finally fizzled out official ANC policy. In the absence of a radical police that they were outnumbered and out- after the Army was eventually dispatched to realignment or a massive political reverse, the gunned, so had better leave. BizNews founder Alec Hogg the hot spot a full five days after the rioting fixed investment strike and export of private McCormick tells of a police station close began. The most credible reason for the delay capital is likely to accelerate. The consequences to one of the looted shopping malls whose Another was the telling intervention by taxi was reluctance of a Zuma-aligned defence would increase Sunter’s anarchy prospect to members all left soon after the looting started, associations, a powerful grouping which minister to intervene.