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Mah Sing Group Bhd TP: RM1.07 (+17.6 %) Last Traded: RM0.91 Acquires Land in Kepong Buy

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Mah Sing Group Bhd TP: RM1.07 (+17.6 %) Last Traded: RM0.91 Acquires Land in Kepong Buy COMPANY U PDAT E Wednesday, July 24, 2019 FBMKLCI: 1, 655.67 Sector: Property THIS REPORT IS STRICTLY FOR INTERNAL CIRCULATION ONLY* Mah Sing Group Bhd TP: RM1.07 (+17.6 %) Last Traded: RM0.91 Acquires Land In Kepong Buy Thiam Chiann Wen Tel: +603-2167 9615 [email protected] www.taonline.com.my Acquires 5.5 Acres of Leasehold Land in Kepong for RM94.8mn Share Information Mah Sing announced that it had entered into a sale and purchase agreement with Bloomberg Code MSGB MK Stock Code 8583 JL99 Holdings Sdn Bhd (vendor) for the proposed acquisition of a parcel of Listing Main Market leasehold land in Taman Metro Metropolitan, Kepong, Kuala Lumpur, measuring Share Cap (mn) 2,427.7 Market Cap (RMmn) 2,197.1 approximately 5.47 acres for RM94.8mn (or RM398psf). Note that the land is 52-wk Hi/Lo (RM) 1.32/0.89 purchased with the benefit of approved development order (DO) for serviced 12-mth Avg Daily Vol ('000 shrs) 961.4 Estimated Free Float (%) 34.2 apartments and the vendors had fully paid charges pursuant to the DO to the Beta 0.81 relevant authorities. Major Shareholders (%) Tan Sri Dato' Sri Leong Hoy Kum - 35.0 PNB - 16.3 Located in Matured Neighbourhood EPF - 8.7 According to the announcement, the land is within walking distance (200m) to Lembaga Tabung Haji - 5.8 the 235 acres Kepong Metropolitan park that has a 140 acres lake – see Appendix 1 . It is also surrounded by the highly populated and established Forecast Revision FY19 FY20 neighbourhoods of Kepong, Taman Selayang Jaya, Batu Caves, Bandar Menjalara, Forecast Revision (%) 0.0 0.0 Segambut, Taman Seri Gombak and Sentul, which is easily accessible via major Net profit (RMmn) 212.0 216.8 highways and trunk roads. The land has direct access from MRR2 whilst Jalan Consensus 238.3 247.1 TA's / Consensus (%) 89.0 87.7 Kuching is 2.3km away. Additionally, there are also plans for infrastructure Previous Rating Buy (Maintained) improvement, including 2 new interchanges connecting Jalan Kepong to MRR2. Financial Indicators FY19 FY20 In terms of public transportation, the land is 4km from the Taman Wahyu KTM Net gearing (x) net cash net cash Station and 3.3km to the upcoming Metro Prima MRT station along MRT Line 2 CFPS (sen) 27.2 9.8 P/CFPS (x) 3.3 9.2 (Sungai Buloh-Serdang-Putrajaya Line) which is on track to be completed by July ROE (%) 6.0 5.9 2021 and fully operational by 2022. ROA (%) 3.0 2.9 NTA/Share (RM) 1.5 1.5 Price/ NTA (x) 0.6 0.6 High-rise Development Worth RM705mn GDV Based on the preliminary plan, the residential development, dubbed M Luna, Share Performance (%) Price Change MSGB FBM KLCI which is to be affordably priced, will offer two blocks of serviced apartments 1 mth 0.0 (0.6) units with indicative built up from 700 sq. ft. priced from RM385k/unit. Spanning 3 mth (4.2) 1.7 6 mth (2.7) (1.6) over a development period of 4 years, M Luna is expected to yield a GDV of 12 mth (27.0) (5.5) RM705mn. Management expects to launch a preview of this project in 4Q19. (12-Mth) Share Price relative to the FBMKLCI Effective Land Cost at 8.7% of GDV The latest acquisition will increase the group’s landbank to 2,104 acres with total remaining GDV and unbilled sales of RM25.8bn. Excluding land premiums and development charges, we gather that the effective land cost works out to about RM61mn (or RM256psf). As such, the land cost would make up about 8.7% of the total development value of RM705mn. As the land cost to GDV ratio comes below the general rule of thumb of 20%, we deem the acquisition price attractive. Neutral on the Acquisition Source: Bloomberg While the acquisition is in line with the group’s focus to acquire prime land in strategic location especially in the Klang Valley for fast turnaround development, we are caution on the huge incoming supply in the Kepong vicinity – see Appendix 3 . Note that, the list excludes UEM Sunrise’s 73-acre land in Kepong slated for a mixed-development with an estimated GDV of RM15bn over 15-20 Page 1 of 4 24-Jul-19 year s, which is adjacent to Mah Sing’s M Luna project . Targeted for launch in 4Q19, we gather that the first phase of UEM Sunrise’s project would comprise two blocks of high-rise condominiums with an estimated GDV of RM690mn (indicative selling price of RM650psf). Having said that, we believe M Luna is competitive priced at an indicative selling price of RM550psf onwards. All in, we are neutral on the acquisition. We opine that unique concepts and attractive promotional packages are required for this project to stand out in the crowd, given the huge influx of new supplies in the neighbourhood in the coming years. Impact No change to our FY19-21 earnings forecasts for now pending a meeting with management. In terms of funding, we believe Mah Sing’s strong balance sheet with cash balance of RM1.3bn as Mar-19, should provide financial flexibility for this land acquisition and future landbanking. Valuation We maintain our Buy recommendation with an unchanged target price of RM1.07/share, based on unchanged target average blended CY20 PE/PB of 10x/0.8x Appendix 1: Location Map Source: Mah Sing Page 2 of 4 24-Jul-19 Appendix 2: Artist Impression of The Project Source: Mah Sing Appendix 3: Non-Landed Residential Projects Launched in Kepong in 2016-2017 Source: Metro Homes, Landserve and Edgeprop.my Financial Summary Page 3 of 4 24-Jul-19 Profit and Los s (RM'mn) Balance S heet RM'mn) FYE Dec 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F FYE Dec 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F Revenue 2915.8 2192.9 2290.3 2381.7 2388.3 PPE 155.9 227.4 217.6 208.7 200.6 COGS (2154.1) (1542.4) (1603.2) (1667.2) (1671.8) Land held for dev 1482.2 1619.8 1635.4 1643.4 1651.5 Gross profit 761.7 650.6 687.1 714.5 716.5 Leasehold land 5.6 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.7 Investment Properties 227.8 228.5 228.5 228.5 228.5 EBITDA 493.0 392.0 420.9 430.2 429.7 Others 148.7 174.1 174.1 174.1 174.1 Deprecia tion (16.4) (13.5) (19.7) (18.9) (18.1) LT Assets 2020.2 2254.6 2260.4 2259.5 2259.5 Amortisa tion (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) EBIT 476.5 378.4 401.1 411.3 411.5 Property dev. Cost 2139.5 1749.2 1821.8 1901.4 1988.8 Finance cost (4.3) (10.1) (4.6) (5.1) (5.7) Inventories 629.0 731.3 131.8 137.0 137.4 PBT 472.3 347.6 396.6 406.2 405.9 Trade & other receivables 1121.7 946.0 784.4 815.7 817.9 Cash & Cash equivalent 1216.2 1220.5 2155.8 2672.2 3223.1 Ta x (113.1) (77.0) (95.2) (97.5) (97.4) Others 13.5 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 MI 2.7 1.0 (7.9) (10.5) 0.0 ST Assets 5120.0 4654.8 4901.7 5534.2 6175.2 Net profit 302.8 190.1 212.0 216.8 227.0 Normalised Net profit 302.8 190.1 212.0 216.8 227.0 Total Assets 7140.2 6909.4 7162.1 7793.8 8434.7 EPS (sen) 12.6 7.9 8.8 9.0 9.4 Trade and other payables 1524.3 1395.8 1066.7 1109.3 1112.4 DPS (sen) 6.5 4.5 5.0 5.0 5.0 ST Borrowings 143.4 121.3 121.3 121.3 121.3 Others 37.7 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.4 ST Liabilities 1705.4 1539.6 1210.5 1253.1 1256.1 Cash Flows (RM'mn) 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F PBT 472.3 347.6 396.6 406.2 405.9 LT Borrowings 638.0 443.0 813.8 1184.5 1604.2 Depr & Amort 16.5 13.6 19.8 18.9 18.1 Others 149.1 103.1 103.1 103.1 103.1 Ta x (113.1) (77.0) (95.2) (97.5) (97.4) LT Liabilities 787.2 546.1 916.9 1287.7 1707.4 Others (9.8) 353.1 359.4 (73.6) (87.0) CFO 365.8 637.2 680.5 254.0 239.6 Share Cap 1773.3 1776.1 1776.1 1776.1 1776.1 Reserves 1682.7 1712.9 1834.6 1961.0 2097.6 Ca pex (266.6) (287.1) (25.6) (18.1) (18.1) Shareholder's Funds 3456.0 3489.0 3610.6 3737.0 3873.7 Others (56.7) (34.7) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Holders of P erpetua l S ukuk 540.0 540.0 576.6 613.2 649.9 CFI (323.4) (321.7) (25.6) (18.1) (18.1) Holders of P erpetua l S ecurities645.2 789.4 834.2 879.1 923.9 MI 6.4 5.3 13.2 23.7 23.7 Net Addition/Rpmt 336.4 297.1 370.8 370.8 419.7 Dividend P aid (117.5) (81.3) (90.4) (90.4) (90.4) Liabilities + Equities 7140.2 6909.4 7162.1 7793.8 8434.7 Others (0.4) (485.1) 0.0 0.0 0.0 CFF 218.5 (269.3) 280.4 280.4 329.4 Ratios 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F E P S Growth (% ) 0.1 (25.0) 8.1 1.6 3.4 Net Cash Flow 261.0 46.2 935.4 516.4 550.9 PER (x) 7.2 11.5 10.3 10.1 9.6 GDPS (sen) 6.5 4.5 5.0 5.0 5.0 Div Yield (%) 7.2 5.0 5.5 5.5 5.5 Net g ea ring (% ) 3.0 Net Ca sh Net Ca sh Net Ca sh Net Ca sh ROE (%) 9.0 5.5 6.0 5.9 6.0 Assumptions 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F ROA (%) 4.5 2.7 3.0 2.9 2.8 Sales Assumptions 1802 1503 1520 1610 1690 NTA (RM) 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 Prop Dev Margins 17.1 15.1 16.5 16.6 17.0 P/NTA (x) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Stock Recommendation Guideline BUY : Total return within the next 12 months exceeds required rate of return by 5%-point.
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