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DEVELOPMENT in LAO PDR: the Food Security Paradox

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DEVELOPMENT in LAO PDR: the Food Security Paradox DEVELOPMENT IN LAO PDR: The Food Security Paradox by David Fullbrook Working Paper Series Schweizerische Eidgenossenscahft Mekong Region Confédération suisse Confederazione Svizzera Confederazium svizra Lao PDR Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC SWISS AGENCY FOR DEVELOPMENT & COOPERATION The Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) a division of the Federal Department of Foreign Affairs (FDFA), is responsible for Switzerland’s international cooperation and development program. The most important areas of work for the SDC are as follows: - Bilateral and multilateral cooperation - Humanitarian aid, through the Humanitarian Aid Department and the Swiss Humanitarian Aid Unit (HA/SHA) - Cooperation with Eastern Europe and the CIS www.sdc.admin.ch SDC IN THE MEKONG REGION - LAO PDR Working Paper Series No. 1 Development in Lao PDR: The Food Security Paradox Swiss Cooperation in the Mekong Region: Working Paper Series SDC in the Mekong region commissions independent research to examine matters of current interest to national governments, their development partners, and international institutions. Working papers are intended to contribute to on-going discussions and debates. They are not position papers and their findings may be tentative. By David Fullbrook www.swiss-cooperation.admin.ch/mekong PREFACE This working paper was conceived as a meta-study to provide a strategic view of the situation in the Lao PDR drawing on data and findings from dozens of field studies, which were subsequently analyzed in the light of local and global trends and developments to synthesize fresh insights and an assessment of the outlook for food security plus scenarios and options. Boundaries drawn up for the study precluded consideration of the complexities of climate change. The paper was proposed in October 2008 and commissioned in December 2008. The first draft was presented in March 2009 followed by a second draft in April 2009. A third & fourth draft were requested and respectively submitted in August & November 2009. The final 5th draft was finalized in February 2010. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS AUTHOR This study was conceived, researched and written by David Fullbrook, a consultant commissioned and funded by the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation, Vientiane. David Fullbrook is a researcher with an MSc in Asian Politics from the School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London. Correspondence address: [email protected] SDC would like to thank everybody who took time to discuss the issues, provided papers or assisted in any other way. Gratitude is owed to Barbara Böni, Andrew Bartlett, Agnieszka Kroskowska, Bjorn Turmann and Ryan Woo and the staff of SDC who supported this paper. * Photos are a collection compiled and donated by various local projects, partners and individuals IMPRINT Copyright 2009 © Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation & David Fullbrook All rights reserved. This material may be reproduced in part or in whole for personal or non-profit use with full acknowledgement and citation. Proposals for commercial reproduction should be made to the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation and David Fullbrook. Development in the Lao PDR: the food security paradox By David Fullbrook Published by the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation Vientiane www.sdc.admin.ch www.swisscooperation.admin.ch/mekong Citation: Fullbrook, David “Development in the Lao PDR: the food security paradox” 2009 Vientiane: Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation - Working Paper No.1 DISCLAIMER The views, opinions and interpretations expressed in this report are those of the author. They should not be interpreted as representing official or unofficial views or positions of the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation and its officers and representatives. CONTENTS ABBREVIATIONS ................................................................................................... 1 GLOSSARY ............................................................................................................. 2 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..................................................................................... 3 2. KEY FINDINGS………………………………………………………………………….5 3. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................. 8 4. FOOD SECURITY IN LAOS – GLIMMER OF HOPE ........................................ 12 4.1 PRICES ...........................................................................................................................12 4.2 POLICY ...........................................................................................................................13 4.3 OPPORTUNITIES ...........................................................................................................14 5. THE BIG PUSH – DAMS, MINES AND TREES ................................................ 16 5.1 POWER, PROFITS, AND REVENUES ............................................................................17 5.2 MINING’S PROSPECTS ..................................................................................................19 5.3 MINING’S REVENUE POTENTIAL ..................................................................................22 5.4 COMMODITIES, CARBON AND TREES .........................................................................23 5.5 TREES AND REVENUE ..................................................................................................26 5.6 CONCLUSION .................................................................................................................26 6. LIVELIHOOD IMPACTS .................................................................................... 27 6.1 DAMS, LIVELIHOODS AND FOOD ..................................................................................27 6.2 THE FOOD SECURITY OF TWO MILLION PEOPLE .......................................................29 6.3 FOOD SECURITY UNDERMINED ...................................................................................30 6.4 PLANTATIONS BLOOM, FOOD SECURITY WITHERS ...................................................31 6.6 CONCLUSION .................................................................................................................35 7. ENVIRONMENTAL CONSEQUENCES………………………………………..…...37 7.1 MINING POLLUTION .......................................................................................................37 7.2 EMPTY FORESTS ...........................................................................................................39 7.3 COSTING THE EARTH....................................................................................................40 7.4 THE TROUBLE WITH WATER ........................................................................................42 7.5 THERE GO THE FISH .....................................................................................................43 7.6 CONCLUSION .................................................................................................................44 8. MARKET AND FOOD…………………………………………………………………46 8.1 ABUNDANT FOOD MARKETS ........................................................................................46 8.2 FOOD MARKETS AND MIGRATION ...............................................................................47 8.3 CONCLUSION .................................................................................................................48 9. CHALLENGING CONTEXT FOR FOOD SECURITY ........................................ 49 9.1 INDUSTRIAL PREROGATIVES TRUMP FOOD SECURITY ............................................50 9.2 OVERWHELMED – STATE REGULATORS AND INVESTMENT .....................................50 9.3 (MIS)MANAGING DEVELOPMENT .................................................................................52 9.4 CURSED BY RESOURCES .............................................................................................54 9.5 THE CURSE ELSEWHERE .............................................................................................58 9.6 CONCLUSION .................................................................................................................59 10. PEAKS AND CRUNCHES ............................................................................... 61 10.1 OIL, FARMING, FOOD AND LAOS ................................................................................61 10.2 ALTERNATIVE ENERGY QUESTIONS HYDRO-POWER .............................................62 10.3 ENERGY OPTIONS HEATING UP BY 2020? .................................................................63 10.4 COMPETITION RISING FOR FERTILE LAND ...............................................................64 CONTENTS 10.4.1 Demand for food ..............................................................................................64 10.4.2 Natural rubber bounces back ...........................................................................66 10.4.3 Agrofuels ..........................................................................................................66 10.4.4 Starch and bioplastics ......................................................................................68 10.5 FOOD, FIBRE, FUEL AND STARCH MARKETS MERGING ..........................................68 10.6 WILL THE WELL RUN DRY? .........................................................................................69 10.7 DISEASE AND BLIGHT .................................................................................................70
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