Agrarian Transition in Lowland Southern Laos: Implications for Rural Livelihoods Vongpaphane Manivong BSc (Economics) MPhil (Agricultural Economics) A thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at The University of Queensland in 2014 School of Agriculture and Food Sciences Abstract Despite being a low-income, agriculture-based country with a subsistence orientation, Laos is in the early stages of a major economic transformation whereby rural households have been experiencing rapid change in their farming and livelihood systems. Some households have begun to engage in semi-commercial farming while others have adopted labour-oriented or migration- oriented livelihood strategies. This study explores livelihood strategies of rural households in lowland rice-based farming systems in Southern Laos in relation to government policies for agricultural development and the agrarian transition occurring in Laos and the region. The analytical framework used for this study draws on farming systems economics, agrarian systems analysis, and rural livelihoods analysis. Data were obtained from six villages in the lowlands of Champasak Province in Southern Laos through key informant interviews, village group discussions, household surveys, and household case studies. Survey and case study data were supplemented with project and historical agronomic trial results in order to construct model budgets for various input scenarios of rice production. To allow for the production and market risks facing farmers, the budgeting analysis was supplemented by the techniques of sensitivity analysis, threshold analysis, and risk analysis. The study shows that Lao farmers in areas such as the lowlands of Champasak are caught up in, and contributing to, a much larger regional process of agrarian transition. Despite the selective adoption of improved technologies, rice production in all the study villages was primarily a low- yield, subsistence-oriented activity, or at most a semi-commercial activity. Most farmers appeared to view rice production as a platform on which to construct a diversified livelihood strategy in which the use of family labour within and beyond the farm was the key element. An economic analysis of rainfed rice production suggests that, given current conditions, we are likely to continue to see the adoption of low-input, labour-efficient, and relatively stable rice production systems for most households, with small areas of high-input, commercially-oriented systems in favourable situations. Price fluctuations due to supply shocks and government responses have created a further disincentive to the intensification of rice production systems. With rice production providing a subsistence base, rural households in the study area were engaged in a range of other agricultural and resource-based activities, including cultivation of non-rice crops, livestock-raising, and forest- and river-utilisation. Water resources were extracted from streams, ponds, and groundwater, as well as irrigation systems. The diversification of cropping systems i through cultivation of non-rice crops was one alternative for improving the productivity and profitability of farming systems and the productivity of water use in the irrigation areas. In all villages, off-farm and non-farm activities, particularly long-term migration of younger household members to neighbouring Thailand, have come to play a large role in household livelihood strategies. In some cases this is necessary to meet the household‟s consumption requirements; in most, it is part of a diversified strategy in which rice farming still plays a significant role, though still largely for subsistence. The diversification of household livelihoods through wage migration has reduced farm labour availability and increased farm wages, further limiting the incentives for rice intensification. Research and extension efforts should recognise this diversity of production systems and household livelihood strategies. There remains a need to improve the productivity and stability of rice production as a subsistence-oriented activity to enhance the capacity of rural households to engage in both farm and livelihood diversification. The level and reliability of returns to household labour (rather than land) should be central to the assessment of new agricultural technologies and practices, as well as the evaluation of agricultural policies. While rainfed rice will likely retain its role as the subsistence base for some time, the main agricultural trajectory is towards activities that provide higher returns to the household‟s labour and capital resources. Hence the clear trend is towards diversification away from both sole dependence on rice and sole dependence on farming – that is, a trajectory of farm and livelihood diversification. ii Declaration by author This thesis is composed of my original work, and contains no material previously published or written by another person except where due reference has been made in the text. I have clearly stated the contribution by others to jointly-authored works that I have included in my thesis. I have clearly stated the contribution of others to my thesis as a whole, including statistical assistance, survey design, data analysis, significant technical procedures, professional editorial advice, and any other original research work used or reported in my thesis. The content of my thesis is the result of work I have carried out since the commencement of my research higher degree candidature and does not include a substantial part of work that has been submitted to qualify for the award of any other degree or diploma in any university or other tertiary institution. I have clearly stated which parts of my thesis, if any, have been submitted to qualify for another award. I acknowledge that an electronic copy of my thesis must be lodged with the University Library and, subject to the General Award Rules of The University of Queensland, immediately made available for research and study in accordance with the Copyright Act 1968. I acknowledge that copyright of all material contained in my thesis resides with the copyright holder(s) of that material. Where appropriate I have obtained copyright permission from the copyright holder to reproduce material in this thesis. iii Publications during candidature Manivong, V, Cramb, RA & Newby, JC 2014, „Rice and remittances: Crop intensification versus labour migration in Southern Laos‟, Human Ecology, vol. 42, no. 3, pp. 367-79. Manivong, V, Newby, JC & Cramb, RA 2014, „Targets and trade-offs: Economic constraints to the intensification of rainfed lowland rice systems in Central and Southern Laos‟, The Lao Journal of Agriculture and Forestry, no. 30, pp. 36-61. Manivong, V, Newby, JC & Cramb, RA 2014, „Subsistence-oriented rice farming in the rainfed lowlands of Central and Southern Laos: A policy dilemma‟, paper presented to Policy Dialogue on Rice Futures, Phnom Penh, 7-9 May 2014. Publications included in this thesis No publications included. Contributions by others to the thesis No contributions by others. Statement of parts of the thesis submitted to qualify for the award of another degree None. iv Acknowledgements I would like to begin by thanking Professor Rob Cramb for giving useful advice during the entire process of writing this thesis. I consider myself fortunate to have had Rob‟s professional and personal support. I also wish to thank Dr. Jonathan Newby and Associate Professor Silinthone Sacklokham for their involvement in the supervision of my thesis. My sincere thanks to the National Agriculture and Forestry Research Institute (NAFRI) and the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MAF) of Laos for giving me the opportunity to study for my PhD at the University of Queensland. Thanks to Dr. John Schiller for advice and personal support during my time in Australia. Thank you to the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR) for providing the financial support for my study at the University of Queensland through a John Allwright Fellowship and, through Project CSE/2009/004, supporting my data collection in Laos Many thanks to the Agriculture and Forestry Offices of Champasak Province, Phonethong District, and Soukhouma District for support during my fieldwork and providing reports and relevant data. Thanks also to other provincial offices of Champasak Province for providing valuable information. I am grateful to the staff of the GIS Unit of NAFRI for providing maps and useful data. Special thanks go to Mr. Phounsup Vilayheuang. I would like to thank staff from the Agriculture and Forestry Policy Research Centre, the Southern Agriculture and Forestry Research Centre, and the District Agriculture and Forestry Offices of Phonethong and Soukhouma for working as enumerators, providing valuable information, and assisting during the fieldwork. Particular thanks go to Mr. Khamphun Souphun and Mr. Vongpadid Manivong, my research assistants, for their wonderful cooperation and support during the data collection in Phonethong and Soukhouma Districts. I would like to give thanks to the authorities of the study villages for facilitating the interviews with farmers and providing information during group discussions. Special thanks go to the farmers who shared their time and interesting stories during the household and case-study interviews as well as group discussions. v Finally, I give credit to my family (Veo, Kay, and Fa), being always with me when I need strength and motivation. vi Keywords agrarian transition,