Ten years of aspiration perception of NATO in POLITICALPOLITICAL STATESTATE ANDAND NATONATO According to official state documents1, integration seen in a historical perspective, offering time, and mentioned that Slovenia was into NATO represents Slovenia’s basic foreign policy the chance for European nations to over- the best candidate for the next round of come the divisions of the past. NATO en- NATO enlargement. Included in her text, interest and national security priority. NATO is seen largement, as well as Slovenia’s potential however, was also a warning that Slove- as “the only efficient organisation for collective secu- membership in the Alliance, is not direct- nia should be more active in the conflict rity in the existing European security architecture”. ed against other states, including Russia. resolution process in South Eastern Eu- NATO provides collective defence to member coun- According to high representatives of rope, should continue economic liberaliza- tries, but also assumes responsibility for European Slovenia, the country was eligible for the tion, and be more open for foreign invest- security and stability in general, including “out of first round of post-Cold War NATO en- ments.3 area” operations. NATO demonstrated its efficiency largement. Slovenia fulfilled all general cri- One of the questions to be raised while teria set by the NATO Enlargement Study; analysing the document was the readi- in such a role during the Bosnian-Herzegovinian war, however, not one of the representatives ness of the Slovenian Army to join NATO. where European security structures failed to stop the spoke about defence or military criteria. It The document foresaw a lot of substantial conflict without a substantial transatlantic support. is most clear that inter-operability of activities to be carried out by the Army to The crisis in spring 1999 was another exam- Slovenian armed forces could be a subject achieve the NATO standards and interop- ple of this kind. of serious debate in this respect. Another erability with the armed forces of NATO important issue to be addressed here, are countries. It seems the Slovenian Army According to the official view, the fun- Slovenia’s on-going disputes with its has undergone constant reform since its damental reasons for Slovenia to become neighbours, especially . Despite conception, with few tangible results. The a member of NATO are: (1) the member- this situation, there is an immanent hope content analysis revealed that the dead- ship in NATO would strengthen the securi- that NATO will primarily respect its own lines set by the document are not respect- ty of the country and contribute to its long- objective criteria, rather than take into ac- ed by different governmental agencies, in- term development; (2) the consequences count different political considerations cluding the Ministry of Defence and the of NATO membership are not estimated to about the enlargement itself. It is also evi- Army. That is to say, those “diplomatic ru- be only those of security and military, but dent that the representatives of the mours” on the weakness of the Slovenian also refer to foreign policy, economic, sci- Slovenian state believed in a democratic Army, not enough educated military offi- entific, research, technical, and organisa- effect of NATO enlargement – member- cers, and leaking of military secrets, were tional issues, (3) a potential NATO mem- ship would foster democratic political close to the truth. bership of Slovenia means the inclusion of processes in Slovenia. The optimistic estimation of NATO country in the political and security frame- There is great optimism within Sloveni- membership costs seen in previous years work of the most developed Western Eu- a’s official ranks regarding the relative is surpassed by the “national strategy”. ropean and North American countries, it costs of NATO: Slovenia is capable and The Government envisaged an approxi- also means, promotion of economic and prepared to pay and the expenditures will mate 25 per cent increase in its defence social co-operation and development, be lower than in the case of an individual budget due to the expected gradual ac- strengthening credibility of Slovenia, pro- approach to security. cession to NATO (from 1.83 per cent of motion of its international status and ne- The official document on NATO and GDP in 1997 to 2.3 per cent in year gotiating power, and consolidation of the Slovenia, adopted by the Government, is 2003). In year 2000, this objective was international identity of Slovenia as a de- comprised of 23 pages, many which hard- postponed to year 2010, while the actual mocratic and peaceful country. ly correspond to the title of the document: trend goes in the opposite direction – in Hence, the official standpoint of Slove- National Strategy for Integration of Repub- 2000 the defence spending reached nia as far as the potential membership in lic of Slovenia into NATO. Namely, the doc- merely 1.45 per cent of GDP. NATO is concerned, emphasizes security ument addresses broader topics such as The document anticipates only positive and non-security aspects of the member- European security architecture, the role of effects of Slovenia’s membership in NATO ship as equally important. OSCE, the history of NATO-Slovenia and (enhanced stability and greater possibility While analysing the official statements, WEU-Slovenia relations, and Common For- of social development, enhanced security, it could be seen that the attitudes of the eign Security Policy of EU, while the activi- better image of the country within the in- highest representatives within the Sloven- ties to achieve membership are com- ternational community, economic, scientif- ian state toward NATO membership were pressed in points with no firm theoretical ic and technological push, and even long- very general and political in nature. All rep- or empirical background, therefore, hardly term reduction of defence expenditures) resentatives placed the discussion of NA- to be called “national strategy”. while the possible negative consequences TO enlargement in a spectrum of globali- The official standpoint of Slovenia, as of membership are not forecast. sation and European integration, and they far as potential membership in NATO is all viewed enlargement as a means to concerned, equally emphasizes security Parliamentary political parties’ achieve a new European security ‘archi- and non-security aspects of membership, attitude toward NATO tecture’. Therefore, Slovenian high state i.e. political, economic, scientific, and even Although differences existed among representatives envisaged NATO as a col- cultural (values). parliamentary political parties by the end lective security organisation, rather than a Not everything was so clear regarding of 1998 we might say that it is possible to collective defence organisation.2 Another Slovenia’s fulfilment of basic criteria set by classify Slovenian political parties into two common element of all presented stand- NATO for the first round of its enlarge- groups with regard to this issue. The first points was the attitude toward military ment. Namely, the high representatives of group comprised the four most powerful force in Europe as an artefact – their atti- the state claimed Slovenia fulfilled the cri- parliamentary parties – the Liberal Democ- tudes expressed a high degree of opti- teria, while the document envisaged many racy of Slovenia (LDS), the Slovenian Peo- mism about the low possibility of the use foreign policy, military, administrative, and ple’s Party (SLS), the Social Democratic of military force on the continent. financial activities to be carried out in ref- Party of Slovenia (SDS) and the Slovenian Slovenian membership in NATO would erence to those criteria. Therefore, we Christian Democrats (SKD) – that unre- mean the return of the country to a cultur- could assume, the Slovenian government servedly supported Slovenia’s entry into al circle that Slovenia belonged in the accepted the (mainly American) criticism NATO. The position of the SKD however, past, and is understood as a correction of brought to Slovenia by US State Secretary has not been set out in detail and justified the historical injustice caused by the con- Madeleine Albright after the Madrid Sum- – at least not publicly4. The second group sequences of the Second World War. It is mit. Albright gave some credit to Slovenia contained the United List of Social De- also evident that NATO enlargement is for all its reforms accomplished by that mocrats (ZLSD), the Democratic Pension- 78 ers’ Party (DESUS) and the Slovenian Na- garding the fulfilment of conditions for cisive influence, while the opposition par- tional Party (SNS), which declaratively NATO membership, it is important to ties blamed the government for the fail- supported NATO membership but with stress that one of the basic criteria set by ure. The two key coalition parties that certain reservations or under certain con- NATO was that disputes with neighbour- made up the government – the LDS and ditions. The ZLSD was most divided with ing countries should be resolved. Obvious- the SLS – at least indirectly saw the diffi- regard to this issue, since the party’s ly, Slovenia doesn”t meet this criterion, culties of Slovenia”s integration with NA- Women’s Forum and Youth Forum explic- since there are still undecided questions TO in the unsatisfactory readiness of the itly opposed NATO membership for Slove- with Croatia, among them the question of Slovenian Army. The opposition drew at- nia. The major shift occurred in the SNS land and sea borders. This is significant tention to the slowness of changes in soci- which ceased to support the membership because, should Slovenia become a NATO ety (incomplete political, economic and of Slovenia in NATO in Spring 1999 (see member, its borders also become the bor- military reforms), the deliberate delaying table 1). ders of the Alliance. Some political parties of the restitution of nationalized property It is fairly typical of parties not to deal also overestimated Slovenia’s negotiating and with it the righting of wrongs commit- with NATO as primarily a military, de- capabilities with NATO regarding its geo- ted under the previous “totalitarian fence, or security organisation, but to at- strategic importance after the dissolution regime”, the over-slow process of privati- tribute instead to it other properties. Thus of the bipolar bloc structure of internation- sation and the hindering of foreign invest- the effects of Slovenia joining NATO are al relations, while others underestimated ment, Slovenia’s lack of commitment in seen as being economic, cultural (value the costs of potential NATO membership. the resolution of the crisis in the Balkans, system) and political (the democratizing and the failure to accept certain required effect of NATO enlargement). The reasons for the non-acceptance of defence obligations, inadequate civilian Slovenia fulfils the conditions set for Slovenia in the first round of NATO en- supervision of the armed forces and the potential candidates by NATO in its en- largement in Madrid 1997 – and only here poor readiness of the Slovenian Army, a largement study, and its advantages in- does the difference between government defence budget which lacks transparency, clude never belonging to the Warsaw Pact parties and opposition parties become im- and purchases of weapons and military and having a favourable influence on the portant – were seen by government par- equipment from countries which are not resolving of the political and security crisis ties as mainly lying in external factors over NATO members. in the Balkans. Despite the optimism re- which they themselves did not have a de-

Table 1: SLOVENIAN PARLIAMENTARY POLITICAL PARTIES: PERCEPTION OF NATO

Name of the Political Ideological Seats in the Parliament NATO Rationalization of Reasons for the rejection Party Orientation (Elections Oct. 2000) Membership the membership in Madrid 1997 Liberal Democracy Centre Left, 34 For NATO provides the highest level the main reasons for rejection of Slovenia, Liberal of security, acceleration of economic are outside of the country, government progress, include the country in politicization of armed forces, the democratic world, increase military secrets Slovenian influence in IC Slovenian People’s Centre Right, 9 For Enhanced social stability and The transitional process is too Party and Christian Conservative economic development slow, defence policy mistakes, Democrats, structure of the armed forces government is inadequate Social Democratic Right Nationalist, 14 For NATO goes beyond military The policy of the government, Party of Slovenia, Conservative alliance and offers economic security, unrealistic estimation of the situation, opposition NATO-the best way of achieving ignoring the Visegrad group, national security and a guarantee of insufficient defence budget internal democratic development transparency, purchase of arms in Israel instead in NATO countries, underestimated role of Germany , Right, 8 For Slovenia becomes part of Government made an inappropriate opposition Conservative European value, legal, economic, judgement of political relations in financial and security environment international community, social reforms were too slow, Slovenia was inactive in the region (SEE), sabotage. United List of Social Left, 11 For (with Inclusion in The decision was made outside Democrats, Social some doubts) the circle of developed the country, government should government democratic WE countriesperform more discrete foreign policy Democratic Pensioners’ Centre Left 4 For Opportunity for the long term Party, government integration into European political and economic areas, security interests Slovenian National Right, Nationalist 4 Not clear … Slovenia belongs Party, opposition against to Western cultural circle … neutrality is a better choice Representatives of Centre Left 2 For the Italian and Hungarian Minorities Party of Slovenian Youth, Centre 4 Not against Does not mention NATO in its supports government Guidelines and starting points Some political parties (ZLSD, SDS and SNS) are openly committed to a referendum on NATO membership, while others feel that this would give a message of inconstancy or lack of conviction about our intentions to the partners in NATO.

79 Civil society and public opinion on former , while their contribution jority of the public supported the govern- NATO to guaranteeing world peace is given a ment’s efforts towards NATO membership The institutions and individual mem- very low estimate. for Slovenia, but the support was by no bers of civil society are a good deal more A relative majority of those questioned means as high as among the political elite critical than the representatives of political are in favour of reducing or ideally preserv- and state officials working in the area of parties towards the idea of Slovenia’s ing the level of defence expenditure, al- national security. This result did not ac- membership of NATO. There is practically though Slovenia sets aside a relatively low cord with their expectations and in fact no uncritical and apologist advocacy of percentage of its gross domestic product represented a shock and a disappoint- membership in the analysed material. If for defence.6 The public imposes on the ment, since it was now seen that public we group and generalize their arguments army an imperative, which is in equal support for NATO membership was not we see that for one group of arguments parts functional and societal and ascribes something automatic and that it would be Slovenian membership of NATO is ideo- to it a modest societal role, but at the necessary to justify the idea more system- logically unacceptable (and some ex- same time is absolutely opposed to the in- atically and professionally. tremely irrational claims are also made terference of the army in political events We invited the respondents to consid- here), a second group is concerned about in the country.7 A relative majority of re- er claims about the advantages and disad- the sovereignty of the state and national spondents is in favour of reducing the size vantages of NATO membership and asked identity, a third group warns that for the of the armed forces, which even now have them whether they agreed or not with political elite NATO membership is primar- only a modest potential.8 The majority of these claims. Respondents agreed most ily of symbolic importance, and a fourth is the public is in favour of a smaller regular with the claims that in the case of Slove- afraid that the costs of membership will army and a larger reserve, a mainly con- nia joining NATO our armed forces would be too high. Members of the older genera- script army with a smaller professional have easier access to modern weapons, tion, with their experiences of the Second core, and a seven-month period of nation- that the military security of the country World War, publicly stress that Slovenia al service, all of which accords with the would be strengthened, that its reputation should have a more solid negotiating role actual state of affairs in the Slovenian in the international community would in- with regard to NATO since the importance armed forces. crease and that this would ease our ap- of its geo-strategic position has been con- Data on the attitude of the Slovenian proach to European integrations. The ma- firmed throughout history. Finally they re- public to NATO is available from 1994 on- jority of respondents also agreed that NA- mind us that in 1941–1945 the Slovenian wards. The first question put to respon- TO membership would increase the share national liberation movement was an ally dents read as follows: “Below is a list of of the budget to be used for defence pur- in the anti-Hitler coalition, which should statements. To what extent do you agree poses, that given the small size of the count for something in negotiations on or disagree with them?”. One of the state- country the placing of NATO military the admission of Slovenia to NATO. ments related to NATO: “We would prefer bases would represent too great a loss of In dealing with the views of parliamen- to look after Slovenia’s defence ourselves, national territory, that membership would tary parties and influential members of civ- even if this costs us more, than to become require cooperation in military operations il society, and indirectly of the institutions dependent on the West (NATO)”. The level outside the territory of Slovenia, that that they represent, we have noticed that of acceptability of this statement was ex- Slovenian companies would be able to co- individuals appeal to public opinion which tremely high, with two thirds of respon- operate in the military projects of NATO supports their position regarding Slove- dents indicating that they “agree com- member states, and that Slovenia”s armed nia”s integration with NATO. Some politi- pletely” or “agree”. Less than one-third in- forces would become more efficient. Few- cal parties are also demanding that a ref- dicated that they “do not agree” or “do not er agreed with the claim that NATO would erendum be held before a decision is agree at all”. From this we may conclude establish military bases in Slovenia which made on Slovenia’s entry to NATO. These that in the spring of 1994 the public had would represent an ecological burden on are two of the reasons why it is also nec- not yet accepted the idea of Slovenia join- the environment, and even fewer that the essary to analyse the public opinion polls ing NATO. personnel of these bases would be a dis- on the attitude of the Slovenian public to- About one year later (in January 1995) turbing factor in the social environment, or wards possible membership of NATO. we asked the public once again about that the establishing of military bases Before examining the attitude toward Slovenia and NATO. The majority of re- would provide jobs for the local popula- NATO, let us look at the broader public spondents believed that the Alliance tion. Fewest of all agreed with the claim opinion context regarding the security of would strengthen its political role in Eu- that NATO membership would limit Slove- Slovenia.5 The public opinion polls in re- rope and expand through the inclusion of nia’s sovereignty. cent years show that Slovenes feel safer certain eastern European countries. Only a A good quarter of those asked felt that than they did in the past. They are increas- small number of respondents thought that Slovenia”s security position has improved ingly aware of non-military sources of NATO would not change (25 per cent) or through its cooperation in the Partnership threat, notably ecological and socio-eco- that it would be disbanded (5 per cent). for Peace programme, while more than nomic threats, while other sources of Figures for the public support of NATO half felt that it has not changed. Approxi- threat include crime, natural and man- membership for Slovenia can be seen in mately a fifth of those asked were unable made disasters, the sale and use of drugs, table 2. to judge this. internal political instability, the possibility These figures show that a relative ma- More intensive public opinion research of social unrest, and a lagging behind in the area of science and technology. Re- spondents do not attribute major impor- Table 2: PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR GOVERNMENT EFFORTS FOR NATO tance to external military threats. The MEMBERSHIP IN JANUARY 1995 (in %) question of “threats” is important since we may assume that the level of perceived The government is striving for NATO membership for Slovenia. military threat will influence the public’s Do you personally support such efforts or do you oppose them (Sample = 1050)? attitude to Slovenia’s membership of NA- TO, an institution of collective defence. 1 – I support them 44.2 Furthermore, public opinion polls indi- 2 – I don’t support them but I don”t oppose them 32.7 cate mistrust of the international actors 3 – I oppose them 8.6 (NATO, UN, EU, OSCE) involved in the res- 4 – I don’t know, I am undecided 14.6 olution of the political/security crisis in the 80 prised of twenty individuals, among them Table 3: PUBLIC OPINION SUPPORT FOR NATO MEMBERSHIP senior officials of the Government (Min- OF SLOVENIA (in %) istry of Defence and Ministry of Foreign Affairs), Presidential Office, Members of Oct 96 Jan 97 Feb 97 Mar 97 Nov 97 Jun 99 the Parliament (Defence Committee), and high representatives of parliamentary po- Yes 66.4 61.3 58.3 64.1 55.4 56.5 litical parties. The sample of Ministry of No 15.7 20.5 21.1 18.3 18.4 16.1 Defence involved senior civil servants and Don’t know 17.9 18.2 20.7 17.6 26.2 27.4 high-ranking military officers. Sample 958 996 942 965 2031 1001 The questionnaire wasn't extensive and highly structured, rather, it consisted of only thirteen open questions which could be divided into two sets: the first was carried out from autumn 1996 to coming from NATO on the further enlarge- one pertaining to the personal views of June 1999. Public support for the project ment of the Alliance and the potential the respondents regarding NATO mem- of NATO membership can be seen in table members? It is also true that closer we are bership for Slovenia, while the second set 3. to the objective (NATO membership), referred to the attitude of the institution/ more rational and less emotional the organisation the respondents represented, Certain trends in public opinion relat- judgement of public is. However, in May toward Slovenia and NATO. The latter also ing to support for the government in its ef- and June the support for NATO member- referred to the substantial processes tak- forts for NATO membership for Slovenia ship increased, the opposition remained at ing place in the institution/organisation can be read from table: (1) from October the same level, while the number of unde- regarding security policy- making.9 1996 to March 1997 public support for cided decreased significantly: the two rea- The results of the interview showed the government’s efforts was relatively sons for higher support could be deterio- that the great majority of respondents high and stable, (2) the level of opposition rated security situation in Macedonia and supported the idea of Slovenia being a to government policy regarding NATO the Bush-Putin meeting held in Slovenia. member of NATO without any reserva- was relatively low (approximately a fifth of The crosstabulations of results from tions. The arguments for NATO member- respondents) and stable in this period, (3) January 2001 poll showed that the demo- ship were as follows: the group of undecided respondents in graphic features of the public brought 1. membership is of a vital interest for this period was relatively high (approxi- about some slight differences in their Slovenia in the context of ‘de facto’ and mately a fifth of respondents), (4) in Octo- opinion toward NATO. The population un- ‘de iure’ integration of the country into Eu- ber and November 1997 support for der 30 and over 60 years of age are more ro-Atlantic structures; Slovenia would be Slovenian membership of NATO fell per- in favour of the membership than other closer to the Western democracies; only ceptibly, while opposition did not increase age groups. More educated people are within a united Europe can Slovenia and the group of undecided respondents less in favour of the idea than less educat- achieve greater prosperity, grew larger. This result was almost cer- ed ones, and male population is much 2. membership would be a logical con- tainly influenced by the decision of the more in favour of the membership than tinuation of the country’s independency North Atlantic Council at its meeting in the female one. Female population does process started in the late eighties, Madrid not to invite Slovenia to be one of not oppose the idea more than the male 3. geo-strategic and military-political the candidates for the first round of NATO one, however, the majority of undecided situation of the country, enlargement since the end of the Cold are women. In urban areas the support is 4. political orientation of the country War. The trend remained unchanged until higher than in rural areas, and housewives and internal political situation; NATO June 1999. and farmers seem to be most undecided membership could foster the democratic values of society, 5. Slovenia is on the edge of the turbu- Table 4: PUBLIC OPINION SUPPORT FOR NATO MEMBERSHIP lent Balkans, and NATO membership IN 2001 (in %) would bring greater security to the coun- Jan Feb Mar Apr May June try; NATO, as the only effective organisa- Yes 49.6 53.4 52.7 49.9 53.9 55.3 tion of collective defence in Europe, offers No 31.6 28.4 26.0 29.9 31.5 29.7 security guarantees, Don’t know 18.8 18.2 21.3 20.2 14.7 15.1 6. Slovenia is forming its military sys- Sample 932 899 932 889 928 904 tem and it is necessary to accept the solu- tions that have already been tested in the past; the discussion on NATO member- As seen in table 4, in January 2001 the groups. The more people are satisfied ship itself has already brought a lot of pos- opposition to NATO membership grew with their life in Slovenia, the higher is itive effects into our military system – the over 30 per cent while the support de- support for NATO membership. Also, it is options were narrowed down and the im- clined bellow 50 per cent for the first time evident that the support for the member- provisations reduced, in recent years. In February and March the ship grows from side of political 7. the membership would attract for- support was slightly over fifty per cent, spectrum to the right one. The religious or eign investors (positive economic effects). and in April again below 50 per cent. In atheist attitudes have no influence at all in The majority of respondents agree that May and June, the support grew again this case. Slovenia fulfils the membership criteria set well over 50 per cent. The January decline by NATO: democratic standards, human is regarded to be a consequence of a situ- The attitude of the state and politi- rights, freedoms and rights of minorities, ational context: the discussion on deplet- cal elites toward NATO resolved territorial and other disputes with ed Uranium as a side effect of the military One of the methods for obtaining rele- neighbouring countries, rule of the law, campaigns in Bosnia-Herzegovina and vant information is the interview, which economic freedoms and market economy, Kosovo ran by domestic and international was carried out in late April and early May democratic supervision of the armed mass media. Perhaps, the American de- 1999 (after NATO’s Washington Summit forces, transparency of defence planning, bate on National Ballistic Programme? Or, and during the intensive NATO air strikes and interoperability. Some respondents is the reason the lack of clear message against Yugoslavia). The sample was com- questioned the fulfilment of ‘resolved terri- 81 torial and other disputes with neighbour- (and within) different branches of state At the end of the interview respon- ing countries’ criterion, since Slovenia still power, increase defence budget and re- dents were asked to make an estimation has some open territorial and property structure it in favour of military defence of how Slovenia could provide its own se- questions with Croatia, while the others expenditures, as well as reorganize and curity in the meantime, i. e. before NATO questioned the rule of the law, transparen- modernize the armed forces. membership occurs. Here are the most cy of defence planning, democratic con- According to the respondents, the pos- popular answers: trol over armed forces and their interoper- itive effects of NATO membership for – by enhancing international co-opera- ability with NATO. Slovenia would be: tion, especially with NATO (PfP – al- – Slovenia becoming more closely inte- lows consultations with NATO if the grated with the European community, country feels threatened, MAP, EAPC), – national self-confirmation, – by exercising peaceful policy in interna- – increased level of (national) security tional relations and good relations with (security guarantees), neighbouring states, – enhanced credibility and better image – by building up its own, effective de- of the country in the international fence system, sphere and especially within the re- – by adopting Armed Forces to NATO gion, standards, ‘modernisation’ of tech- – respect of rule of law, niques and thought, introducing an all- – indirect benefits in economic (lower volunteer force (AVF), fostering educa- ‘country risk’ and increased foreign in- tional programmes within the armed vestments), social, scientific, techno- forces. logical and cultural fields, – rational and transparent defence plan- Conclusions ning and budget, and Slovenia is one of the ‘transition – modernisation of armed forces. states’, aiming at NATO membership, but Negative effects of NATO membership was not invited to start the membership were estimated to be: negotiations to enter the first round of NA- – part of national sovereignty will be ren- TO enlargement after the end of Cold War. Slovenia fulfills the criteria at least as dered to collective bodies (limited sov- From this group of transition states there well as Hungary, Poland and Czech Re- ereignty, threatened national identity – were only three of twelve European coun- public, but there are also some unwritten language, symbols, customs, tradition), tries that expressed their desire to join NA- conditions to be met. It seems that in the – the attitude toward defence in the pub- TO, i. e. Hungary, Czech Republic and case of those three countries, the most im- lic will change – we will lose the ‘de- Poland. These three nations were invited portant reasons to accept them were geo- fence consciousness and readiness’ to start the membership negotiations in strategic (geographical positions of the achieved in the past, Madrid in 1997, during the North Atlantic countries and their relative military – international obligations will increase Council meeting, and entered the Alliance strength) and moral ‘historical debt’. Few due to the crises in Europe, in the spring 1999. The Madrid Declara- respondents warned that the Slovenian – degradation of the environment, tion on Euro-Atlantic Security and Cooper- government is too servile toward NATO – foreign military bases on Slovenian ter- ation mentioned Slovenia as one of the (e.g., the permission to fly over Slovenian ritory, potential candidates for the second round territory, land transit permission, ‘no se- – Slovenian soldiers will be sent abroad of NATO enlargement after the end of cret’ policy), meaning, NATO has no need and will die there, and Cold War.10 The Washington Declaration, to be interested in Slovenian membership. – high membership costs. issued by the Heads of State and govern- What can Slovenia do to enhance its The attitude of the institutions/organi- ments participating in the meeting of the chances? Slovenia has made a lot of mis- sations represented by the respondents North Atlantic Council to celebrate the takes in the past: poor political decisions, toward the idea of Slovenia being a poten- 50th anniversary of NATO, emphasized undefined national interests and strategy, tial member to NATO was positive in all the Alliance remained ‘open to all Euro- too much political struggle within the Min- cases but one (Slovenian National Party pean democracies, regardless of geogra- istries of Defence and Foreign Affairs, changed its platform, and is now support- phy, willing and able to meet the responsi- problems within the Slovenian Armed ing the security policy of armed neutrali- bilities of membership, and whose inclu- Forces (territorial instead of operational, ty). sion would enhance overall security and level and type of officers’ education, man- Less then two thirds of respondents stability in Europe’.11 None of the poten- ner of promotion), delayed contacts with thought the support for the membership tial members was explicitly mentioned in foreign defence ministries and lobbying, of Slovenia to NATO was sincere, yet they the document. At the same time, the and inadequate activities of military and were not always supported by adequate Washington Summit adopted the docu- civil diplomacies due to a lack of political knowledge and, therefore, were not al- ment ‘Membership Action Plan’, the pro- instructions. These are all areas where ways objective. It is important that the mil- gramme of activities, which should assist Slovenia could do more to improve its itary corps is supportive of the idea, and aspiring countries in their preparations for chances to enter the second round of NA- that military officers see their professional possible future membership. Although the TO enlargement. The respondents empha- careers in a Euro-Atlantic perspective and sceptics doubt there will be a second sised the need for Slovenia to actively con- not just a Slovenian one. More than one round of enlargement, senior political rep- tribute to the security in South East Eu- third of the respondents thought the sup- resentatives of NATO countries and NATO rope through peace operations (especially port was not sincere in some political par- officials emphasize, that the enlargement Bosnia – Herzegovina, Kosovo, and Alba- ties, nor even in the Government itself. is a process, composed of several phases, nia), foster relationships with NATO (Mem- Sometimes the latter promises a lot, but and all countries which fully meet the bership Action Plan – MAP, Partnership fails to back these promises with concrete membership criteria and conditions, will for Peace – PfP, Euro-Atlantic Partnership actions. It is most evident the financial be invited to join NATO. Council – EAPC), and NATO member support of the Government for the ‘pro- The general impression received by the countries, accelerate internal political and ject’ to be accomplished is rather modest, observer of the internal social and political economic reforms, improve the coordina- despite the obligations accepted in NATO- scene in Slovenia is that NATO member- tion of NATO related activities between Slovenia relations. ship is supported by all security policy- 82 making actors, as various state institu- 2001 the support increased again well Sciences which operates under the wing of tions, political parties, civil society and over 50 per cent. the Faculty of Social Sciences of public, or at least that no actor is explicitly The attitude of the political and state University. The author of this article is himself a researcher from this Institute and took part in opposed to the project. elite toward potential membership of obtaining data. The political state displayed a great en- Slovenia in NATO was mainly a positive 17 According to Ministry of Defence figures thusiasm about NATO membership in offi- one, and in conformity with the attitude of 1.83 per cent of GDP in 1997 was earmarked cial documents and public statements, but the institution or organisation they repre- for defence including investments in basic there is still a lot of work to be done: sented. The arguments for, and at the development programmes, military pensions 1) more analytic and systematic ap- same time the most positive effects of and civil defence expenditure, 1.89 per cent in 1998 (Facts About Slovenia: Defence, April proach to the foreign and security policy membership, could be summarised as fol- 1998) and 1.45 per cent in 2000. in order to avoid senseless initiatives like lows: definite inclusion of the country into 18 The Law on Defence prohibits officers from the one on the abolition of nuclear Europe and Western society, strengthen- being members of political parties and only weapons triggered in United Nations, de- ing of democratic values, enhanced na- allows them passive electoral rights (they may spite the fact, NATO understands nuclear tional security and economic prosperity. vote but they may not be elected). 19 In 1997 the Slovenian Army numbered weapons as an important factor of deter- Beside the positive effects, the respon- 4,200 professionals (soldiers, officers and rence; or the hesitation during the Kosovo dents identified negative ones, as well: non-commissioned officers) and 5000–6000 crises in Autumn 1998 when Slovenia partial loss of sovereignty, increased inter- conscripts. The total number at complete was asked by NATO to provide the permis- national security obligations and in this mobilisation (including the reserve) was sion for NATO aircraft to fly over the terri- context possible casualties of Slovenian 56,000 (Facts About Slovenia: Defence, April 1998). tory of Slovenia if needed; soldiers abroad, degradation of environ- 20 The first set of questions referred to the 2) more substantial and concrete work ment and increased defence costs. Slove- personal attitude of the respondent toward in the security, defence and military fields, nia fulfils all basic membership criteria set potential NATO membership for Slovenia, like the formulation of the White Paper on by NATO, but the decision whom to invite argumentation of the attitude, the membership defence and other important legal docu- in the Alliance is expected to be a political criteria set by NATO, and the positive and ments, the reform of the defence system one. negative effects of potential NATO membership for Slovenia. The second set of ■ and especially the armed forces from their questions referred to the attitude of the still predominantly “territorial” to “opera- institution/organisation toward the possible tional” nature, in order to be able to co-op- Marjan Malešič membership of Slovenia to NATO, information erate in international military campaigns. and advisory processes that took place in the An impression, made according to all Sources: organisation/institution, the decision-making process, and the question of how to provide official statements of parliamentary politi- 1 Facts about Slovenia: Defence. Ministry of national security prior to Slovenia’s potential cal parties, is that the Slovenian political Defence 1998. membership in NATO. scene as a whole is genuinely in favour of Madrid Declaration on Euro-Atlantic Security 21 Article 8 of the Madrid Declaration on Slovenia joining the Western integration and Cooperation, Madrid, 8–9 VII 1997. Euro-Atlantic Security and Cooperation, processes, including NATO. Behind these – Malešič, Marjan. 2000. Slovenian Security Madrid, 8–9 VII 1997. Policy and NATO. Groningen: University of 22 Article 8 of The Washington Declaration, general preferences there are discrepan- Washington D.C., 23rd and 24th April 1999. cies between statements and actual be- Groningen, CESS. – Slovenian public opinion data from 1994 to haviour, in the intensity of working to- 2001. Ljubljana: Institute of Social Sciences, wards acceptance, in measuring the ef- University of Ljubljana. fects of NATO enlargement, and in expect- – The Washington Declaration, Washington D.C., ed procedures of joining the Alliance: 23rd and 24th April 1999. Institutions and individual members of – Žabkar, Anton. Geostrateški položaj Slovenije v 20. stoletju (Geostrategic position of Slovenia civil society are a good deal more critical in 20th century). A paper presented in the than the representatives of political par- National Assembly in January 1999. ties towards the idea of Slovenia”s mem- bership of NATO. There is practically no * Associate Professor, Head of Defence Research uncritical and apologist advocacy of mem- Centre, Faculty of Social Sciences at the University of Ljubljana, Slovenia. bership in the analysed material. If we 12 e.g. National Strategy for Integration of the group and generalize their ideas we see Republic of Slovenia into NATO, adopted by that one group argues that Slovenian the Government of Republic of Slovenia on membership of NATO is ideologically un- 26 February 1998. acceptable, a second group is concerned 13 It is interesting to note that the American Senate, while voting on the resolution for about the sovereignty of the state and na- ratification of admission of Poland, Hungary tional identity, while a third group warns and Czech Republic into NATO, on April 1998, that for the political elite NATO member- tabled by 82 vs. 18 votes an Ashcroft ship is primarily of symbolic importance, amendment to make it clear that collective and a fourth is afraid that the costs of defence will remain at the heart of NATO’s Marjan Malešič, Ph.D., is an As- membership will be too high. mission, rather than adopting a broader sociate Professor at the Faculty of So- mission such as peacekeeping. Public opinion polls indicated that a rel- 14 Summarised by the lecture of former US cial Sciences, University of Ljubljana, ative majority of those surveyed were in Ambassador to Slovenia Victor Jackovich, and Head of the Defense Research favour of reducing or preserving the level delivered to the post-graduate students of Center at the Institute of Social Sci- of defence spending with regard to mili- American Studies at the Faculty of Social ences. His recent teaching and re- tary defence. Seventy per cent of those in- Sciences, University of Ljubljana. search areas include non-military as- 15 The SKD and SLS merged into one party in terviewed either fully or partially opposed year 2000 but few months later one faction pects of the security policy, crisis the increase of defence spending due to left and established a party named New management, propaganda and public NATO membership. Despite that the sup- Slovenia (NSi). It became a parliamentary party opinion. M. Malešič is Chairman of port for NATO membership in Slovenian after the elections in October 2000. the European Research Group on Mili- public was relatively high in years Concurrently, the Party of Slovenian Youth tary and Society (ERGOMAS) and (SMS) entered the Parliament as a new one, 1996–1999, declined slightly bellow 50 as well. member of the International Sociolog- per cent in the beginning of 2001 for the 16 The public opinion research we are relying on ical Association (ISA). first time in recent years, while in mid was carried out by the Institute of Social 83