Författare Program/Kurs Major Gustav Carlsson HOP 18-20

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Författare Program/Kurs Major Gustav Carlsson HOP 18-20 Självständigt arbete (30 hp) Författare Program/Kurs major Gustav Carlsson HOP 18-20 Handledare Antal ord: 19601 Aida Alvinius Beteckning Kurskod: Självständigt arbete 2HO013 masteruppsats, krigsvetenskap ÖKAT HOT – ÖKAD ENIGHET? BILDEN AV SVENSKA CIVIL-MILITÄRA RELATIONER GENOM FÖRÄNDRINGAR I DEN MILITÄRA HOTBILDEN. ABSTRACT: Rising threats – Increased unity? The narrative of Swedish civil-military relations and changes in military threats. Civilian control over military organizations is a central aspect of democratic states, but is complicated by an inherent pursuit of freedom and autonomy among military organizations. The relationship between civilian government and the military organization is also affected by external factors, such as, military threats to the state in the form of war or threat of war. The effects of military threats on civil-military relations has, primarily, been demonstrated in states at war or undergoing democratization, and raises the question as to how changes in threats affect the civil- military relations of a democratic state in peace as well as how these changes can be investigated. This study aims to investigate, from a structural as well as actor perspective, how changes in external threats to Sweden as a well-established democracy at peace affect its civil-military relations. The study combines two theories of civil-military relations to analyse Swedish civil- military relations. By combining an analysis of government policy documents with narrative analysis of media reporting, the narrative of Swedish civil-military relations is compared with the state's perception of its external military threats. From the results of the study it is concluded that lower degrees of threat entail a narrative of disagreement, while increased threats lead to a narrative of increased conformity. Furthermore, narrative analysis of media reporting appears to be an important complement to other methods for the study of civil-military relations. Nyckelord: Civil-militära relationer, politisk styrning, civil kontroll, externa hot, mediaanalys, narrativ analys. Gustav Carlsson Självständigt arbete HOP 18-20 Försvarshögskolan Innehållsförteckning 1. INLEDNING ..................................................................................................................... 4 1.1. BAKGRUND ................................................................................................................. 4 1.2. PROBLEMFORMULERING .............................................................................................. 5 1.3. SYFTE OCH FRÅGESTÄLLNING ..................................................................................... 6 1.4. CENTRALA BEGREPP OCH DEFINITIONER...................................................................... 6 1.5. AVGRÄNSNINGAR ........................................................................................................ 7 1.6. DISPOSITION ................................................................................................................ 8 2. FORSKNINGSÖVERSIKT ............................................................................................ 9 2.1. TIDIGARE FORSKNING .................................................................................................. 9 2.1.1. MEDIENARRATIV ....................................................................................................... 13 2.2. STUDIENS INOM- OCH UTOMVETENSKAPLIGA FORSKNINGSBIDRAG ........................... 13 3. TEORI ............................................................................................................................. 15 3.1. UNDERSÖKNINGENS TEORIER .................................................................................... 15 3.1.1. MICHAEL DESCH – A STRUCTURAL THEORY OF CIVIL-MILITARY RELATIONS ......... 15 3.1.2. PETER FEAVER – THE INFORMAL AGENCY THEORY. ................................................. 17 3.2. TEORIERNAS ANVÄNDNING I UNDERSÖKNINGEN. ...................................................... 19 3.3. NYTTJADE TEORIER – MOTIV OCH DISKUSSION .......................................................... 21 4. METOD ........................................................................................................................... 23 4.1. VAL AV FALL ............................................................................................................. 24 4.2. TILLVÄGAGÅNGSSÄTT ............................................................................................... 24 4.3. MATERIAL ................................................................................................................. 25 4.3.1. FÖRSVARSBESLUT ..................................................................................................... 25 4.3.2. MASSMEDIA .............................................................................................................. 26 4.3.3. KÄLLKRITISKA ASPEKTER AV NYTTJAT MATERIAL .................................................... 26 4.4. DEN NARRATIVA ANALYSENS GENOMFÖRANDE I UNDERSÖKNINGEN ........................ 27 4.5. REFLEXIVITET, RELIABILITET OCH VALIDITET ........................................................... 29 5. RESULTAT OCH ANALYS ......................................................................................... 30 5.1 INFÖR 2009 ÅRS FÖRSVARSBESLUT - FRÅN DECEMBER 2004 TILL JUNI 2009 ............. 30 5.1.1 BAKGRUND ............................................................................................................... 30 5.1.2 FÖRSVARSBESLUTEN OM HOT OCH CIVIL-MILITÄRA RELATIONER ............................. 31 5.1.3 CIVIL-MILITÄRA RELATIONER I DEN MEDIALA RAPPORTERINGEN .............................. 33 5.2 INFÖR 2015 ÅRS FÖRSVARSBESLUT – FRÅN JUNI 2009 TILL JUNI 2015 ...................... 40 5.2.1 BAKGRUND ............................................................................................................... 40 5.2.2 FÖRSVARSBESLUTEN OM HOT OCH CIVIL-MILITÄRA RELATIONER ............................. 40 5.2.3 CIVIL-MILITÄRA RELATIONER I DEN MEDIALA RAPPORTERINGEN .............................. 43 5.3 SAMMANFATTNING AV RESULTATEN ......................................................................... 51 6. SLUTSATSER OCH DISKUSSION ............................................................................ 53 6.1. SLUTSATSER OCH SVAR PÅ FRÅGESTÄLLNING ........................................................... 53 6.2. DISKUSSION: UNDERSÖKNINGENS METOD OCH SLUTSATSER ..................................... 54 6.2.1. UNDERSÖKNINGENS RESULTAT: KONSEKVENSER FÖR FÖRSVARSMAKTEN, POLITIKEN OCH SAMHÄLLET ................................................................................................................... 54 6.2.2. UNDERSÖKNINGENS METOD: KRITIK OCH BIDRAG .................................................... 58 Sida 2 av 72 Gustav Carlsson Självständigt arbete HOP 18-20 Försvarshögskolan 6.2.3. FÖRSLAG TILL FORTSATT FORSKNING ........................................................................ 59 LITTERATURFÖRTECKNING ......................................................................................... 61 Figurförteckning Figur 1: A Structural Theory of Civil-Military Relations (författarens visualisering). ........... 16 Figur 2: The informal Agency Theory (författarens visualisering). ......................................... 19 Figur 3: Samverkan mellan undersökningens teorier. .............................................................. 20 Figur 4: Undersökningens kombination av narrativ och kvalitativ analys. .............................. 25 Figur 5: Nyttjat material i mediananlysen. ............................................................................... 26 Figur 6: Nyttjade teorier i tematisk indelning och kodning för analys av narrativ. ................. 28 Figur 7: Mediala narrativ kring civil-militära relationer under den första delperioden. .......... 33 Figur 8: Mediala narrativ kring civil-militära relationer under den andra delperioden. .......... 43 Sida 3 av 72 Gustav Carlsson Självständigt arbete HOP 18-20 Försvarshögskolan 1. Inledning 1.1. Bakgrund ”Kriget är blott en fortsättning på politiken med andra medel.” (Clausewitz, 1991). Citatet är ett av krigsteoretikern Carl von Clausewitz mest kända och antyder ett förhållande där politikens mål är syftet med krigföringen och att militären som utförare av kriget således är ett instrument för den politiska makten. I demokratiska stater är militären underställd de folkvalda politikerna och har att efterfölja de beslut dessa fattar. Detta förhållande kompliceras av att militären genom sitt våldskapital potentiellt utgör en risk för den stat den har att skydda. Förmågan hos statens ledning att styra sin militär, och militärens lojalitet mot densamma är därför en central frågeställning inom begreppet civil-militära relationer. En stark och genomgående civil kontroll över militären är dock inte oproblematisk då militära organisationer, såväl som organisationer i allmänhet, eftersträvar en mån av frihet och autonomi avseende sin verksamhet för att uppnå effektivitet (Langfred, 2000). Politisk styrning av militär verksamhet kan beskrivas som en relation mellan begreppen kontroll – autonomi – effektivitet där de olika begreppens inbördes vikt och betydelse kan variera beroende på förändringar inom och utom staten samt i organisationen (Ledberg, 2019). Den politiska kontrollen av dess militära instrument medför motsättningar som inte alltid framträder i den strukturella
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