Multiannual Runoff Variability in the Upper Danube Region
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Institute of Hydrology Slovak Academy of Sciences MULTIANNUAL RUNOFF VARIABILITY IN THE UPPER DANUBE REGION DDDrrrSSSccc... TTThhheeesssiiisss RRRNNNDDDrrr... PPPaaavvvlllaaa PPPeeekkkááárrrooovvvááá,,, CCCSSSccc... Bratislava, May 2009 Title: Multiannual runoff variability in the upper Danube region Author: RNDr. Pavla Pekárová, CSc. Publisher: IH SAS Racianska 75, 831 02 Bratislava, Slovakia Year of publication: May 2009 Publication: first Printing: 10 pcs. print version, 50 pcs. CD ROM version WEB link http://147.213.145.2/pekarova © P. Pekárová So as the day follows the night because of the Earth’s rotation around its axis, so as the winter follows the summer because of the Earth’s circulation around the Sun, so as the ice ages follow the inter-ice ages because of the Milankovich’s cycles, so also follows the multi-annual dry and wet periods, probably because of the Sun’s deviation from the solar system center of gravity, changes in the solar activity, and thermohaline circulation. Pavla Pekárová P. Pekárová, DrSc. Thesis Multiannual runoff variability in the upper Danube region CONTENTS PREFACE 10 OBJECTIVES OF THE THESIS 14 1 GAP-FILLING IN DAILY FLOW RECORDS OF THE DANUBE AT BRATISLAVA FOR 1876–1890 15 2 RUNOFF REGIME ANALYSIS 24 2.1 CHANGES IN THE LONG-TERM DAILY REGIME OF THE DANUBE FOR THE PERIODS 1876–1940 AND 1941–2005 24 2.2 CHANGES IN THE LONG-TERM MONTHLY RUNOFF DISTRIBUTION OVER A YEAR 27 2.3 CHANGES IN THE ANNUAL STREAM FLOW CHARACTERISTICS 29 2.4 CONCLUSION 32 3 HURST PHENOMENON, STATIONARITY AND MULTI-ANNUAL VARIABILITY OF RUNOFF 33 3.1 ANALYSIS OF NATURAL FLUCTUATIONS AND LONG-TERM TRENDS OF RUNOFF OF THE MAIN WORLD RIVERS 35 3.1.1 Identification of the long-term runoff trend 39 3.1.1.1 Europe 39 3.1.1.2 North Asia 41 3.1.1.3 North America 41 3.1.1.4 South America 41 3.1.1.5 Africa 42 3.1.1.6 South-eastern Asia and Australia 42 3.1.2 Identification of the long-term variability 43 3.1.2.1 Brief overview of the spectral analysis of random processes 43 3.1.2.2 Combined periodogram method 44 3.1.2.3 Multi-annual periods 45 3.1.3 Identification of the shift of extremes 49 3.1.4 Teleconnection ENSO and NAO phenomena with long-term runoff oscillation 52 3.2 ANALYSIS OF NATURAL FLUCTUATIONS AND LONG-TERM TRENDS IN ANNUAL DISCHARGE ALONG THE DANUBE RIVER 56 4 P. Pekárová, DrSc. Thesis Multiannual runoff variability in the upper Danube region 3.3 ANALYSIS OF NATURAL FLUCTUATIONS AND LONG-TERM TRENDS OF DANUBE DISCHARGE AT BRATISLAVA 62 3.4 CONCLUSION 65 4 LONG-TERM PROGNOSIS OF DANUBE DISCHARGE USING ARMA MODELS AND HARMONIC FUNCTIONS 66 4.1 SCENARIOS BASED ON ANALYSIS OF MONTHLY DISCHARGE SERIES 67 4.2 ARIMA MODELING APPROACH 69 4.2.1 Yearly Danube discharge prediction at Turnu Severin 70 4.2.1.1 Autoregressive model with the harmonic component for Danube: Turnu Severin 71 4.2.1.2 The autoregressive component specification 73 4.2.2 Monthly Danube discharge prediction at Bratislava 76 4.2.2.1 Markov model based on harmonic functions (hidden periods) 76 4.2.2.2 Box-Jenkins SARIMA model involving one regressor – long-term cycle 77 4.3 CONSLUSION 78 5 ASSESSMENT OF T-YEAR MAXIMUM DISCHARGE OF THE DANUBE AT BRATISLAVA 79 5.1 HISTORY OF THE DANUBE FLOODS 80 5.2 ANNUAL MAXIMUM DISCHARGE METHOD 86 5.3 PEAKS OVER THRESHOLD (POT) METHOD 88 5.3.1 Number of peaks 89 5.3.2 Peaks over threshold 90 5.3.3 Annual maximum of POT series 91 5.3.4 Return period 92 5.4 ASSESSMENT OF THE MAXIMUM T-YEAR WATER LEVEL 93 5.5 FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT 95 5.6 CONCLUSION 95 6 ASSESSMENT OF MAXIMUM RUNOFF VOLUME FOR A GIVEN DURATION OF T-DAY FLOWS (1876–2005) 96 6.1 THEORETICAL EXCEEDANCE CURVES OF MAXIMUM DANUBE RUNOFF WAVE VOLUMES 101 6.2 MAXIMUM RUNOFF VOLUMES ANALYSIS FOR TWO PERIODS: 1876– 1940 AND 1941–2005 102 6.3 CONCLUSION 104 5 P. Pekárová, DrSc. Thesis Multiannual runoff variability in the upper Danube region 7 CATASTROPHIC FLOOD SCENARIO FOR THE DANUBE RIVER AT BRATISLAVA 105 7.1 ANALYSIS OF FLOODS REGIME OF THE DANUBE RIVER AT BRATISLAVA 105 7.1.1 Flood occurrence probability for the Danube River at Bratislava 107 7.1.2 Is the runoff extremality of Danube at Bratislava rising? 109 7.2 EXTREME FLOOD WAVE SCENARIOS FOR DANUBE AT BRATISLAVA 110 7.3 CONSLUSION 113 8 CATASTROPHIC FLOOD SCENARIO OF THE DANUBE BETWEEN DEVÍN AND NAGYMAROS 114 8.1 RUNOFF VOLUME BALANCE IN BRATISLAVA–KOMÁRNO RIVER PART 115 8.2 FLOOD TRAVEL TIMES ON DANUBE 116 8.3 DESCRIPTION OF THE NLN-DANUBE MODEL 119 8.3.1.1 NLN-Danube model parameters 121 8.3.2 Results of floods simulation in the reach Devín (Bratislava)–Nagymaros 122 8.3.2.1 NLN-Danube model calibration 124 8.3.2.2 NLN-Danube model verification 130 8.3.2.3 Simulation results - catastrophic flood scenario of the Danube between Devín and Nagymaros 130 8.4 CONCLUSION 131 9 THE THESIS RESULTS AND CONTRIBUTION TO PRACTICE 133 REFERENCES 135 APPENDIXES 143 APP. I. FULL LIST OF STUDIES IN MONOGRAPHS AND JOURNALS CONNECTED TO THIS DRSC. THESIS 143 APP. II. DANUBE 3-HOURLY CATASTROPHIC FLOOD SCENARIO 147 6 P. Pekárová, DrSc. Thesis Multiannual runoff variability in the upper Danube region Acknowledgement This Thesis is an account of my research results accomplished over the period 1996–2009. The hydrological regime of the Slovak and other main world rivers is studied in terms of the catastrophic scenarios and flood simulations for the Danube River. These tasks were accomplished within several scientific project, e.g.: • The joint trilateral Slovak-Hungarian-Austrian project 6/1999 “Improvement of the flood forecasting in the middle Danube basin” coordinated by the Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute(SHMI) in Bratislava. • The joint VEGA SR project 2/6008/99 of the IH SAS and Slovak Technical University (STU) „“Regional hydrologic scenarios for the integrated management of the quantity and quality of surface water resources in Slovakia “, coordinator of the project: RNDr. P. Pekárová, CSc., (1999–2001); • The joint APVT SR project 51-006502 of the IH SAS, SHMI, STU, Faculty of Mathematics, Physics, and Informatics UK, and Faculty of Natural Sciences UK „Assessment of climate change impact on the selected components of the hydrosphere and biosphere in Slovakia“, coordinator of the project: RNDr. P. Pekárová, CSc., (2002–2005); • The joint VEGA SR project 2/5056/25 of the IH SAS and STU “Scenarios of the extreme hydrological events for the integrated management of Slovak rivers “, coordinator of the project: RNDr. P. Pekárová, CSc., (2005–2007); • The joint APVV SR project 51-006502 of the STU and IH SAS „Hybrid flow forecasting models“, (2008–2010); • International project No. 9 within the Regional co-operation of the Danube countries in the framework of the IHP UNESCO 2.4 “Flood Regime of Rivers in the Danube River Basin”, international coordinator: RNDr. Pavla Pekárová, CSc., (2007–2011); www.ih.savba.sk/danubeflood I would like to express my gratitude to Dr. Aleš Svoboda for valuable reflections and motivation during my scientific work and to Dr. Juraj Pacl and Dr. Peter Škoda for providing historical documents necessary for processing the mean daily flow data of the Danube at Bratislava for 1876–1990. The hydrologic data from Slovakia were obtained from the SHMI in Bratislava. The data were partially obtained also from the official historical publications included in references. The long annual discharge data series of all the continents were obtained from the following data sources: Global Runoff Data Center in Koblenz, Germany; CD ROM of the Hydro-Climatic Data Network (HCDN), U.S. Geological Survey Streamflow Data Set for the United States; CD-ROM World Freshwater Resources prepared by I. A. Shiklomanov in the framework of the International Hydrological Programme (IHP) of UNESCO; URL http://waterdata.usgs.gov. Last, I wish to thank all colleagues from Slovakia and abroad also, for providing me with the above mentioned data. 7 P. Pekárová, DrSc. Thesis Multiannual runoff variability in the upper Danube region Declaration I declare that for any material submitted in this thesis I did not previously received any scientific degree or diploma. The Thesis includes selected paragraphs from three monographs, from four papers published in prestigious foreign CC journals, from one Slovak journal and from one conference paper. I am the principal author of these publications. AAA01 PEKÁROVÁ, Pavla - ONDERKA, Milan - PEKÁR, Ján - MIKLÁNEK, Pavol - HALMOVÁ, Dana - ŠKODA, Peter - BAČOVÁ-MITKOVÁ, Veronika. Hydrologic Scenarios for the Danube River at Bratislava. Ostrava: KEY Publishing, 2008. 159 s. ISBN 978-80-87071-51-9. – I. chapter AAB01 SVOBODA, Aleš - PEKÁROVÁ, Pavla - MIKLÁNEK, Pavol. Flood Hydrology of Danube between Devín and Nagymaros. Bratislava: ÚH SAV; SVH, 2000. 96 p. ISBN 80- 967808-9-1. AAB02 PEKÁROVÁ, Pavla. Dynamika kolísania odtoku svetových a slovenských tokov. Bratislava: Veda, 2003. 221 s. ISBN 80-224-07801. ADCA01 PEKÁROVÁ, Pavla - MIKLÁNEK, Pavol - PEKÁR, Ján. Spatial and temporal runoff oscillation analysis of the main rivers of the world during the 19th-20th centuries. In Journal of Hydrology. ISSN 0022-1694, 2003, vol. 274, no. 1, pp. 62-79. (2,16 - IF2007). ADCA02 MITKOVÁ, Veronika - PEKÁROVÁ, Pavla - MIKLÁNEK, Pavol - PEKÁR, Ján. Analysis of flood propagation changes in the Kienstock-Bratislava reach of the Danube River. In Hydrological Sciences Journal. ISSN 1335-6291, 2005, vol. 50, no. 4, pp. 655- 668. (1,6 - IF2007). ADCA03 PEKÁROVÁ, Pavla - PEKÁR, Ján.