The Good Crisis: How Population Stabilization Can Foster a Healthy U.S. Economy
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Social Science $24.95 The possibility of a less-crowded world is no cause for anxiety, let alone panic. Rather, it’s an achievable dream worthy of our efforts. And it’s an essential first step toward The Good restoring a planet now straining to meet the wants and needs of seven—soon to be eight—billion people. —From the Introduction by John Seager The Good Crisis Crisis Addressing timely and critical social issues, from business to sociology, labor, and more, The Good Crisis: How Population Stabilization Can How Population Foster a Healthy U.S. Economy effectively debunks the common belief that a population that isn’t growing rapidly is the precursor to disaster. Stabilization Can Foster With essential contributions from a host of experts, the book gathers articles of indispensible interest to the inquisitive reader. a Healthy U.S. Economy This book is a valuable resource for leaders of business and government; academics in the fields of sociology, demography, gerontology, and environmental studies; and for any reader of current events. Contributors include: Katherine Baicker • Noah Berger • David E. Bloom • David Cutler Brian Czech • Herman Daly • Peter Fisher • Matt L. Huffman Lori M. Hunter • Ronald Lee • Jay W. Lorsch • Hal Marcovitz Robert D. Plotnick • John Seager • Zirui Song • Alan Weisman John Seager is President and CEO of Population Connection. His writing has been featured in Huffington Post, RH Reality Check, and GlobalPost. Lee S. Polansky is Director of Planning and Strategic Support at Population Connection. She has a Ph.D. in History from Emory University. Population Connection (formerly Zero Population Growth) is America’s grassroots organization working to stabilize population. We educate three million students, engage activists, and inform policy makers about the strong public constituency demanding action on this issue. Locked John Seager and Lee S. Polansky, Editors Locked The Good Crisis 000_The0_The GGoodood CCrisis_FM.inddrisis_FM.indd i 224/02/164/02/16 33:02:02 PPMM Copyright © 2016 by Population Connection All rights reserved. No portion of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without written permission from Population Connection. Edited by John Seager and Lee S. Polansky Developed and Produced by Print Matters, Inc. Printed in the United States ISBN 978-0-979-6685-7-9 Chapter 9 is copyrighted and published by Project HOPE/HealthAffairs as Katherine Baicker, David Cutler, and Zirui Song, “Workplace Wellness Programs Can Generate Savings,” Health Affairs, 29, no.2 (2010):304-311. The published article is archived and available online at www.healthaffairs.org. Noah Berger and Peter Fisher. “A Well-Educated Workforce Is Key to State Prosperity.” Report for the Economic Analysis and Research Network, Economic Policy Institute. August 22, 2013. http://www.epi.org/publication/states-education-productivity-growth-foundations/. Reprinted by permission. Herman E. Daly, “Moving to a Steady State Economy,” excerpted from Beyond Growth: The Economics of Sustainable Development, Herman Daly. Copyright © 1996. Reprinted by permission of Beacon Press. Brian Czech, “Ecological Economics Comes of Age,” excerpted from Supply Shock: Economic Growth at the Crossroads and the Steady State Solution. Reprinted by permission. Alan Weisman, “Shrink and Prosper,” excerpted from the book Countdown: Our Last, Best Hope for a Future on Earth? Reprinted by permission of Little, Brown and Company, New York, NY. All rights reserved. 000_The0_The GoodGood CCrisis_FM.inddrisis_FM.indd iiii 008/07/168/07/16 44:56:56 PPMM Contents Introduction: Debunking the Birth Dearth v John Seager 1 Demographic Influences on U.S. Economic Prospects 1 David E. Bloom; Jay W. Lorsch 2 Their Best Assets: Why Companies Value Their Most Senior Employees 12 Hal Marcovitz 3 Economic Consequences of Population Aging in the United States 19 Ronald Lee 4 Making Cities Green: Millennials Eschew Cars for Sidewalks and Bike Trails 28 Hal Marcovitz 5 Ecological Economics Comes of Age 36 Brian Czech 6 Mission Statements and Music Lessons: Educators Raise the Bar for Students 67 Hal Marcovitz 7 A Well-Educated Workforce is Key to State Prosperity 75 Noah Berger; Peter Fisher 8 Smaller Soft Pretzels: Learning to Live a Healthy Life 86 Hal Marcovitz iii 000_The0_The GGoodood CCrisis_FM.inddrisis_FM.indd iiiiii 224/02/164/02/16 33:02:02 PPMM CONTENTS 9 Workplace Wellness Programs Can Generate Savings 96 Katherine Baicker; David Cutler; Zirui Song 10 Work and Training Opportunities: Integrating the Disabled into the Workforce 111 Hal Marcovitz 11 Gender, Race, and the Business Case for Diversity 120 Matt L. Huffman 12 Peer Counseling, Relationships, and Activism: Engaging Young People to Prevent Teen Pregnancy 127 Hal Marcovitz 13 The Benefits of Declining Teenage Childbearing 136 Robert D. Plotnick 14 Listening to Termites: Businesses Move to Reduce Their Carbon Footprint 145 Hal Marcovitz 15 Environmental Dimensions of Population Stabilization 155 Lori M. Hunter 16 All Wrapped Up In Polyisocyanurate: Living the Net Zero Life 162 Hal Marcovitz 17 Moving to a Steady State Economy 171 Herman Daly 18 Shrink and Prosper 188 Alan Weisman Acknowledgments 217 Contributors 219 iv 000_The0_The GGoodood CCrisis_FM.inddrisis_FM.indd iivv 224/02/164/02/16 33:02:02 PPMM Introduction: Debunking the Birth Dearth John Seager What with global warming, terrorism, poverty, refugee crises, nuclear pro- liferation, endangered species, and the rest of the all-too-familiar litany, it hardly seems as if we need to add anything to our “worry” list. Yet, there is a constant chorus of concern about the possibility of eventual population decline and a so-called “birth dearth” based on the notion that women are not having enough children. Articles in mainstream publications such as the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, Foreign Affairs, and the Guardian, as well as books like What to Expect When No One’s Expecting: America’s Coming Demographic Disaster and The Other Population Crisis: What Governments Can Do about Falling Birth Rates focus on this issue.1 Many assert that we can’t possibly thrive in a world of declining fertility—and perhaps someday declining population.2 Among the earliest voices calling for an end to lower fertility rates was Ben Wattenberg. Wattenberg first decried “depopulation” nearly three decades ago. In his 1987 book, The Birth Dearth, he claimed that countries with low fertility rates would be confronted by serious economic, social, and political problems. He went so far as to release a second book on the subject in 2004.3 The United Nations’ 2015 population projections emphasized a decrease in birth rates in developed countries, noting, “It is now estimated that 46 per cent of the world’s population lives in countries with low levels of fertility where women have fewer than 2.1 children, on average”—and these countries include the United States.4 Is this so-called “birth dearth,” as Wattenberg first dubbed it, really a prob- lem? It is not. The world is beset with social, political, and environmental challenges and crises—many caused or exacerbated by rampant population v 000_The0_The GGoodood CCrisis_FM.inddrisis_FM.indd v 224/02/164/02/16 33:02:02 PPMM THE GOOD CRISIS growth. In light of this fact, lower fertility can represent a great potential oppor- tunity. Indeed, voluntary population stabilization would help solve some of the worst problems we now face. World Population – Still Growing Before dealing with the implications of fertility decline, it’s time to say, “Not so fast.” Yes, the rate of population growth has declined over time. And, yes, fertility rates have declined substantially since the middle of the 20th century. Yet, the world continues to add some 83 million people each year—mainly in developing countries. And the most recent UN figures show an alarm- ing jump in projections for 2100. In 2002, the UN medium projection for world population was 9 billion. Now it’s 11.2 billion. The increase in the 2100 projection is equivalent to the entire current population of the Western Hemisphere plus all of Europe.5 The Total Fertility Rate or TFR (i.e., the average number of children born to each woman) remains extraordinarily high in many places. There are 73 countries where women have more than three children on average. While this may not seem particularly high, consider Guatemala, where women currently have an average of 3.1 children. Should that birth rate continue, population will increase by more than 400 percent, from 16 million in 2015 to more than 81 million by 2100. Western Africa has a TFR of 5.4 TFR. And Niger has a TFR of 7.6. This is far above the replacement rate in healthy places, which can occur at a TFR of 2.1.6 These high fertility countries unequivocally illustrate that rapid population growth is very much a reality in today’s world. What about U.S.? Some birth dearthers, who tend to lean politically to the right, argue that lower fertility rates are a symbol of “moral decay” and predict economic collapse as the consequence. For the most part, these alarms are being raised about fertility declines in affluent nations, including the United States. Ross Douthat of The New York Times called for “More Babies, Please” in a 2012 op-ed, writing, “The retreat from child rearing is, at some level, a symptom of late-modern exhaustion—a decadence that first arose