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Earth's Climate History

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Earth's Climate History LIVE INTERACTIVE LEARNING @ YOUR DESKTOP Earth’s Climate History: How do we know what we know? What DO we know? Why does past climate matter to us today? Presented by: Carole Mandryk and Dr. Russanne Low September 20, 2011 Earth’s Climate History: How do we know what we know? Presented by: Dr. Russanne Low and Dr. Carole Mandryk Tuesday, September 20, 2011 6:30 p.m. ‐ 8:00 p.m. Eastern time Overview • How do we know what we know? • What DO we know? • Why does past climate matter to us today? Presenters: Russanne Low, Asst. Professor, School of Carole Mandryk, Research Fellow, Center Natural Resources, University of Nebraska, for Climate Change Communication, Lincoln; Senior Scientist, Institute for Global George Mason University Environmental Strategies Arlington, VA [email protected] [email protected] Who are your students? A. Elementary B. Middle/High School C. College Level D. Informal E. Other Why does past climate matter today? In order to truly understand what is happening, or will happen now, we must be able to answer the question: “Is the Current Climate Change Unusual Compared to Earlier Changes in Earth’s History?” (2007 IPCC FAQ 6.2) How many of you have heard someone who questions whether the current climate changes are caused primarily by human activities and claim, “Climate changes all the time”? Why does past climate matter today? They are right. Earth’s climate does change all the time – on many different time scales. But because they don’t understand HOW – and equally important – WHY – Earth’s climate has changed in the past they miss the crucial point… Why does past climate matter today? Climate scientists know the changes of the last 150 years are NOT just nature changing all the time because they know what those past climate changes have been. They know that the answer to the question, “Is the current Climate Change Unusual Compared to Earlier Changes in Earth’s History?” is a resounding Why does past climate matter today? Yes! By the end of today’s presentation you will be able to explain why this is true to your students, too! The focus of today’s webinar: How do we know what we know? Reconstructing Past Climates 1) Why climate changes • (Climate system) 2) Where we find our evidence • (data sources) 3) How we get our data and what do • (data discovery, modeling & they mean? interpretation) 1) When: How we know when climate • (chronologies) changed? 2) Telling the story • (synthesis) Let’s pause for questions from the audience Climate Change Throughout Earth History There is only one thing that can change the Earth’s Climate! ? Climate Change Throughout Earth History There is only one thing that can change the Earth’s Climate! Change in the Earth’s Energy Budget! Climate Change Throughout Earth History Take home message: Climate change is change in Earth’s Energy Balance! when Inputs ==/ Outputs Earth’s energy budget is not in balance Inputs > Outputs = Warming Inputs < Outputs = Cooling Different processes change EB at different timescales Changes in Earth Energy Balance across different Time Influences operating at timescale scales • Earliest Earth origins • cooling and consolidation of crust evolution of biosphere atmosphere • 1,000,000,000— • tectonics, mountain 10,000,000 building and weathering • changes in the Earth-Sun • 1,000,000-10,000 geometry (orbital forcing) • Solar variability, sunspots, • 100 volcanism CO2 Levels and Earth’s Temperature The rate of increase of CO2 over the post industrial period is far more rapid than any increases over the ice core record. Scientists say that the rate of increase of carbon dioxide is presently over 10,000 times as fast as any increase in the past. How do we know this? Where do we find our evidence? Not in a lab, doing controlled and reproducable experiments, like we were taught! The Earth system is running our experiments! Natural History Experiments in the Earth’s Climate Archives Where we find ourAlluvial evidence: Sediments Ice Glacial Sediments Peat Where we find our evidence: Sediments Glacial Sediments Alluvial Sediments Eolian Sediments Peat Story inside the Sediments Find an archive where climate information is stored in an organized way, so that we know the sequence of events! Hypothetical Lake Bottom: yearly accumulation of sediments Just where is the climate data that tells us how many degrees cooler it was? varves, rhythmites distortion Proxy Data • Something in the sediments, perhaps has left fossil evidence of an organism’s response to past temperature? • Perhaps the sediments themselves contain minerals that form only under specific conditions of salinity? Proxy Data Anything in the Earth system that sensitively responds to environmental conditions and is preserved over time can provide proxy climate data from which we can reconstruct past climate! What do we mean by Proxy Data? • Scenario: You are sitting in an office with no windows- you’ve been there for hours working on a presentation for your students. Data source: Other teachers are coming in and out • Interpretation: How can you determine what the weather is like outside? • What proxy data sources could you use to deduce what it is like outside when you can’t measure it directly with instruments? Proxy Data • Share your ideas here! Proxy Data Exercise To help students understand how proxy data can give us useful information even though it isn’t directly measuring climate, ask them to think of times in their daily lives when they use proxy data –whether they realized it or not. One prompt might be to ask them what think it means if fellow students come into the classroom with wet umbrellas. Discuss how the umbrellas are not measuring rainfall but they are a good indirect indicator of rainfall. Similarly, the proportion of people wearing sandals, tank tops, parkas, etc. can indicate temperature. Summary: Proxy Data Any line of evidence that provides an indirect measure of former climates or environments. Proxy climate data are found in a variety of natural archives including tree rings, ice cores, sediment and rock layers, corals, and dripstone (speleothems), Some important proxy climate data sources found in these archives include pollen, diatoms, seeds, insect remains, gases, mineral species, and stable isotopes Lets look at a couple examples of proxy climate data types…. Lots of people know about pollen! Pollen Analysis The proportion of pollen types released in the environment reflects vegetation composition. Pollen can be extracted from sediment and identified to taxonomic levels ranging from family to species. Willow Grass Beech Pollen from different stratigraphic levels provides information on vegetation at specific periods in the past. Pollen records from lake sediment cores tell the climate story for the local area. • Plants are distributed across the land based on temperature and precipitation. • Thus, plants living in an area change as climate changes. •Changes from layer to layer in a sediment core can tell us about changing conditions Identifying Pollen The view under light microscope Pollen slide ready for examination What do you see? Key: 1=Hazel 2=Pine 3=Grass A (10,000 BP) B (2000 BP) Pollen Diagrams Illinois State Museum The x (horizontal) axis shows the percent of total pollen for each of the taxa (plant types) displayed. The y (vertical) axis shows age (time) and depth of sediment. Radiocarbon dating (discussed later) is used to tell us how old the sediments are, and when changes have occurred. The North American Vegetation Story • Ice age visualization http://jesse.usra.edu • In these videos, note that each tiny dot is one sampling site containing pine pollen! Bigger dots are where there are many sites with this taxa! •Pine story: After the last ice age, species could migrate north to colonize where there once was ice. Ragweed story: •This story is not so straight forward. Something else is involved besides climate change. Any ideas? ☺ Any Questions about Pollen as a Climate Proxy Data Source? Try this Pollen analysis Student Activity: http://www.ucar.edu/learn/ 1_2_2_10t.htm Proxy Example 2: Oxygen Isotopes Light Oxygen Heavy Oxygen Oxygen-16 Oxygen-18 8 neutrons, 8 protons 10 neutrons, 8 protons Lower mass Greater mass Very common Less common- about (over 99% of oxygen) ..2% Their different mass causes them to be unevenly distributed in the atmosphere and hydrosphere. Oxygen Isotopes & the Water Cycle y As air cools by rising into the atmosphere or moving toward the poles, moisture begins to condense and fall as precipitation. y At first, the rain contains a higher ratio of heavy oxygen, since those molecules condense more easily than water vapor containing light oxygen. y As the air continues to move poleward into colder regions, it becomes depleted of heavy oxygen. y The snow that forms most glacial ice develops a higher concentration of light oxygen y During glacial periods, more and more light oxygen is locked up in ice sheets, changing the ratio of light to heavy in the oceans. Oxygen isotopes measured from ice cores • Scientists can measure the ratio of heavy and light oxygen directly from ice sheets. • Ice sheets contain a record of hundreds of thousands of years of past climate. • Scientists recover this climate history by drilling cores in the ice. Lake Vostok Drill Site, Antarctica GISP2 drill site, Greenland Oxygen Isotopes Measured from Ocean Cores Scientists can also measure oxygen ratios of Foraminifera and other microfossils in ocean cores because they build their calcium carbonate shells using oxygen from the ocean water at the time they were alive. Foraminifera: single celled organisms Images:IODP with shells made of calcium carbonate. Oxygen Isotopes, Ice Volume & Sea Level Long-term variations in the ratio of the isotopes oxygen-16 and oxygen-18 reflect not just temperature but are a direct indictor of ice-sheet volume, and indirectly, sea-level.
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