Commentaries

Can Turkey and Lead the Muslim World?

Joseph A. Kéchichian Senior Research Fellow King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies

December, 2020

No empire was ever reborn after its demise and chances are excellent that both the Safavid and Ot- toman empires will never resuscitate. Still, leaders in both Iran and Turkey dream of the grandeur that their predecessors once enjoyed, even if the world has changed permanently since the eighteenth century. Chances are excellent that neither the Mullahs in Tehran nor the Islamists in Ankara can re- invent the monarchical authorities that existed over the centuries, especially now that their respective revolutionary systems of government have replaced empires with republics and, in doing so, ushered in a false semblance of democratization. Times have changed, though what surprises students of both societies is the quest for “empire,” ironically by Islamists who rely on religion, to impose raw nation- alist agendas.

Turkish and Iranian officials, led by Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and ‘Ali Khamene’i, covet hegemony over the Muslim world, or at least parts of it, and it is fair to ask whether such aspirations are realistic. Both men believe they are legitimate contenders, one pretending to represent Sunnis,(1) challenging Egypt and Saudi Arabia in the Arab world, and non-Arab Muslim powerhouses elsewhere, including Paki- stan, India, and Indonesia. For its part, Tehran seems determined to seek revenge on the Arab succes-

(1) Marwa Maziad and Jake Sotiriadis, “Turkey’s Dangerous New Exports: Pan-Islamist, Neo-Ottoman Visions and Regional Instability,” Institute, April 21, 2020, https://www.mei.edu/publications/turkeys-dangerous-new-exports-pan- islamist-neo-ottoman-visions-and-regional.

Commentaries Can Turkey and Iran Lead the Muslim World? 1 sors to the ‘Umayyad Empire (661–750 AD), allegedly to avenge the “martyred” family of the Caliph ‘Ali, especially his son Hussein. Ironically, Sunni Persia converted to Shi‘ah Islam under the Safavids (1501–1736) nearly 1,000 years after revelation, ostensibly because the Safavids loathed the Ottomans and wished to prevail on a purely nationalistic level. Equally perplexing is the folklore that was carefully woven around the martyrdom of Hussein, a grandson of the Prophet through his daughter Fatimah and son-in-law ‘Ali. Hussein is revered by Shi‘ah Muslims as an imam but also because he married Rabab, a daughter of Imra-al-Qays bin ‘Adi, the leader of Kuza‘ah tribesmen who engendered leaders of the Ab- basid Empire. What these details reveal is that religion was a useful instrument(2) in the hands of pseudo- nationalists then, just as it is in the minds of extremists today. To add another dimension, Hussein is equally revered by Sunnis who also revere the rest of the Prophet Muhammad’s progeny, although they don’t give them divine attributes, as do Shi‘ahs.

Of course, and though it may appear not to be the case, similarities abound between Turkey and Iran. Just like the Mullahs ended modernization with their Islamist revolution in 1979, under Erdoğan, Tur- key, which used to be both modernizing and moderate, espoused extremism and, in the process, threat- ened the stability of the entire Middle East. The fact that Ankara aspired to join the European Union and served as a critical NATO pillar was even more perplexing since Turkish policies literally threatened Europe, perhaps even the United States.

How Erdoğan’s Turkey emulated Iran was not so evident since Turkish society was still relatively secu- larized, though the Islamist leader(3) gradually and systematically wished to radicalize his country. For starters, Ankara distanced itself from basic freedoms, topped by the cherished freedom of the press. In fact, Erdoğan has consolidated control over the news media and muzzled the press by imprisoning jour- nalists, transforming Ankara according to Reporters Without Borders,(4) into “the world’s biggest jailer of professional journalists.” According to the Stockholm Center for Freedom, 172 journalists(5) were serving various prison sentences in 2020, despite the lifting of the state of emergency in 2018.

In addition to this egregious development, Erdoğan’s economic policies led to serious shortcomings that witnessed sharp declines in exports and, even more troublesome, significant drops in the value of the Turkish Lira. A few weeks ago, in September 2020, Moody’s lowered the Turkish credit rating to B2,(6) the lowest at which it has been measured during the past three decades, which will certainly not encour- age fresh foreign direct investments.

(2) Einat Wilf, “The Battle for Hegemony in the Middle East,” Australian Strategic Policy Institute, May 2017, https://css.ethz.ch/content/dam/ethz/special-interest/gess/cis/center-for-securities-studies/resources/docs/ASPI-SR106_ Middle-East-hegemony.pdf. (3) “Recep Tayyip Erdogan: Turkey’s Pugnacious President,” BBC News, October 27, 2020, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ world-europe-13746679. (4) “Turkey: World’s Biggest Prison for Journalists,” Reporters without Borders, December 19, 2012, https://rsf.org/en/news/ turkey-worlds-biggest-prison-journalists. (5) “Turkish Court Orders Seizure of Exiled Journalist Can Dündar’s Assets,” Stockholm Center for Freedom, October 8, 2020, https://stockholmcf.org/turkish-court-orders-seizure-of-exiled-journalist-can-dundars-assets/. (6) Moody’s, Investors Service, September 11, 2020, https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-downgrades-Turkeys-rat- ings-to-B2-and-maintains-negative-outlook--PR_431146.

2 Can Turkey and Iran Lead the Muslim World? Commentaries An economy that recorded real growth a decade ago was replaced by deficits, which Ankara explained away by military commitments in Syria that definitely drained available resources. Even more heinous was Ankara’s decision to recruit Syrian mercenaries—estimated at between 2,000 and 4,000 by various sources(7)—to fight alongside Azeri forces in Nagorno-Karabakh. Earlier, Turkey dispatched Syrian re- cruits to Libya, which alarmed Western decision-makers since few understood what motivated Erdoğan to act unilaterally while pretending to remain a reliable NATO partner. Since Syrian mercenaries were duly paid by Turkey—to the tune of $2000 per month(8)—how has this egregious step advanced NATO interests?

Remarkably, when he embarked on his adventures in Qatar and Libya, few objected to Erdoğan even if no one understood what motivated him, though what irked NATO partners was Ankara’s decision to enter into a putative alliance with Russia. Erdoğan irritated Washington further and jeopardized its par- ticipation in the F35 Joint Strike Fighter from which it was jettisoned after he purchased the S-400 air defense system(9) from Moscow, which led some to ask whether the Turkish president was being reck- less or, more likely, exercising brazen hegemony? Some even wondered whether he actually believed he could spite partner-countries without a response. Still, it was critical to ask why NATO allies were turning a blind eye, unwilling to take Ankara to the proverbial woodshed. What does that say about the world’s premier military alliance?

In short, if despotic Turkish policies have upset traditional allies and outraged nearly all the country’s neighbors, why isn’t he paying the price? Of course, and except for Azerbaijani and Qatari officials, few trusted Erdoğan in 2020, though Ankara still tries to champion Hamas and the government of Fayez al-Sarraj in Tripoli, although both will ditch him the moment a better consort appears to rescue the Pal- estinians and the Libyans.

Similarly, and after four decades in power, the Mullahs in Iran have not done much better, even if Persian hegemonic aspirations predated the 1979 Islamic Revolution. There was, naturally, a desire to acquire economic, military, and political power on account of the country’s history and geography. For 3,000 years, co-existed with numerous peoples, including the , Lurs, , , Azeris, Balushis, , Arabs, and many others, which produced violent as well as peaceful moments. Over time, various dynasties emerged, ranging from the Achaemenids to the Sassanians, Safavids, Afshars, Zands, Qajars, and the Pahlavis, but what the Mullahs added to the equation was a fresh “Islamizing” feature that topped Safavid arrogance.

(7) “Syrian Mercenaries Sustain Turkey’s Foreign Policy,” DW, n.d., https://www.dw.com/en/turkey-syrian-mercenaries- foreign-policy/a-55098604; Ron Synovitz, “Are Syrian Mercenaries Helping Azerbaijan Fight for Nagorno-Karabakh?” RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty, October 15, 2020, https://www.rferl.org/a/are-syrian-mercenaries-helping-azerbaijan- fight-for-nagorno-karabakh-/30895331.html. (8) Bethan McKernan and Hussein Akoush, “Exclusive: 2,000 Syrian Fighters Deployed to Libya to Support Government,” The Guardian, January 15, 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/15/exclusive-2000-syrian-troops-de- ployed-to-libya-to-support-regime. (9) Joyce Karam, “US Deprives Turkey of F-35s after Ankara’s Russian Missile Purchase,” The National, July 21, 2020, https:// www.thenationalnews.com/world/mena/us-deprives-turkey-of-f-35s-after-ankara-s-russian-missile-purchase-1.1052641.

Commentaries Can Turkey and Iran Lead the Muslim World? 3 For Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini as for his successor, what mattered was the stability of the regime and the export of the Islamic Revolution. Those key features, the Islamist leader articulated, required that the conservative Arab Gulf monarchies be eliminated. Khomeini seldom minced his words about Arab Gulf monarchs and expected Arab populations to overthrow legitimate ruling families that united numerous tribes throughout the Arabian Peninsula over the centuries. He was jealous of the Al Saud in the King- dom of Saudi Arabia for hosting the holy cities of Makkah and Madinah, though it was unknown if he objected to the fact that the Qur’an was revealed to an Arab. In 1987, Khomeini declared: “These vile and ungodly Wahhabis are like daggers which have always pierced the heart of the Muslims from the back,”(10) and opined that Makkah was in the hands of “a band of heretics.” Ironically, while demeaning Arabs, and by wearing the black turban, he claimed descent from the Arab Prophet Muhammad ac- cording to Shi‘ah beliefs. Still, his vile commentaries were neither diplomatically sound nor religiously sensible and, in time, Saudi leaders responded. Heir Apparent Muhammad bin Salman compared Iran’s second supreme leader, Ayatollah ‘Ali Khamene’i, to Adolf Hitler though he did not delegitimize the Iranian on religious grounds.(11)

Riyadh reacted to Persian provocations and clearly took umbrage at repellent accusations including that by ‘Ali Riza Zakani,(12) a member of the Iranian Majlis, who declared in March 2015 that “three Arab capitals [Baghdad, Beirut, and Damascus], have already fallen into Iran’s hands and belong[ed] to the Iranian Islamic Revolution,” which was a particularly troubling assumption. Indeed, with the addition of the fourth Arab capital, Sana’a, under Iranian colonial rule, the Muslim world in general and the Arab world in particular were not out of the woods. In Iraq and Syria, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, under the command of Qasem Soleimani, deployed the infamous Quds Force militia that fought alongside the Nouri Al Maliki and Bashar Al Assad regimes. Yemen, of course, was exponentially dif- ferent because of its strategic location on the Arabian Peninsula even if Zakani believed that Sana’a constituted “a natural extension of the Iranian Revolution.” Emboldened by pro-Iranian Huthi rebels, he alerted everyone that this takeover would not be confined to Yemen but would permeate deeply into the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Less than three weeks before the September 21, 2014 Huthi gains in Sana’a, Hussain Shariatmadari wrote in the Iranian daily Kayhan: “The Islamic revolution underway in Yemen is an exalted and unrestrainable move that will lead to the collapse of the Al Saud regime and remove from this medieval regime—which has since its inception operated as a regional base for the forces of the arrogance [i.e. the West, led by the United States]—the imposed puppet rule of the dictatorial Al Saud family.”(13)

(10) Garrett Nada, Thomas Neal, Cameron Glenn, and others, “Flashpoints: Iran and Saudi Arabia,” September 18, 2020, https://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2019/sep/18/flashpoints-iran-and-saudi-arabia. (11) Ben Hubbard, “Saudi Crown Prince Likens Iran’s Supreme Leader to Hitler,” The New York Times, March 15, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/15/world/middleeast/mohammed-bin-salman-iran-hitler.html. (12) Samia Nakhoul, “Iran Expands Regional ‘Empire’ Ahead of Nuclear Deal,” Reuters, March 23, 2015, https://www.reuters.com/ article/us-mideast-iran-region-insight-idUSKBN0MJ1G520150323. (13) “Associates of Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei: Saudi Arabia is the Source of Scheming Against the Islamic World; The Al-Saud Family is of Jewish Origin – and its Turn to Fall has Come,” MEMRI, October 14, 2014, https://www.memri.org/ reports/associates-iranian-supreme-leader-khamenei-saudi-arabia-source-scheming-against-islamic.

4 Can Turkey and Iran Lead the Muslim World? Commentaries While this Kayhan nugget was penned on September 6, 2014, it was not isolated. ‘Ali Akbar Velayati,(14) the former Iranian foreign minister and adviser on international affairs to Supreme Leader ‘Ali Khamene’i, delighted visiting Yemeni clerics when he told them: “The Islamic Republic of Iran sup- ports the rightful struggles of Ansar Allah [Al Huthis] in Yemen and considers this movement as part of the successful materialization of the Islamic Awakening [the name Iran adopted for the ‘Arab Spring’] movements.” He added that he anticipated that the Huthis would play a similar role to the one Hizballah plays in Lebanon, which was a clear illustration of what Tehran expected from its satrapies. Without blinking, Velayati pontificated: “the road to free Palestine passed from Yemen since [the latter] had a strategic location and was near the Indian Ocean, Gulf of Oman and Bab Al Mandeb.”(15) Over the years, similar pronouncements about geographic detours amazed many, especially by the ease with which such avowals were made throughout the Muslim world.

If Iran’s colonial activities rode Arab weaknesses in 2015–2017, King Salman bin ‘Abdul Aziz Al Sa‘ud and his heir apparent concluded that the fall of Sana’a—the fourth Arab capital in Iran’s hands—consti- tuted a “clear and present danger.” That was why the Saudi monarch cooperated with Egyptian President ‘Abdul Fattah Al Sissi, as the latter proposed the creation of a joint Arab force to counter security threats, even if it was not clear whether such a force would build on the Gulf Cooperation Council’s existing Peninsula Shield force. Many accused Riyadh of waging a war against Yemen, oblivious to the fact that Saudi Arabia acted under United Nations Security Council Resolution 2216(16) in 2015, which was passed under Chapter VII of the UN Charter, and expanded the sanctions regime through the creation of a targeted arms embargo against the Huthis and authorized states to “take the necessary measures to prevent the direct or indirect supply, sale or transfer to, or for the benefit of Ali Abdullah Saleh, Abdullah Yahya Al Hakim, Abd Al-Khaliq Al-Huthi, and the individuals and entities designated by the Committee established pursuant to paragraph 19 of resolution 2140 (2014).”

Beyond this long overdue initiative, what was truly ironic was the fact that Iranian successes in coloniz- ing Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen overlooked the fact that all four countries were mired in perpetual conflicts, with no prospects for security and prosperity, either for themselves or for the nascent colonial power, which implied that any Iranian hegemony over the Arabian Peninsula and beyond would be ex- tremely difficult, if not impossible.

It was ironic that Erdoğan buried Mustafa Kemal Ataturk’s slogan “Peace at Home, Peace in the World,” and entombed former foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu’s “zero problem with neighbors” jingle, first uttered in 2013. What Ankara displayed was an insatiable appetite for regional interventions, driven by the Muslim Brotherhood’s message, which the overwhelming majority of Muslims and Arabs re-

(14) Cameron Glenn, “Who are Yemen’s Houthis?” Wilson Center, April 29, 2016, https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/who- are-yemens-houthis. (15) Joseph A. Kechichian, “Iran is a New Colonial Power,” Gulf News, March 4, 2015, https://gulfnews.com/opinion/op-eds/ iran-is-a-new-colonial-power-1.1466585. (16) United Nations Security Council, Resolution 2216 (2015), April 14, 2015, https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/s/res/2216- %282015%29-0.

Commentaries Can Turkey and Iran Lead the Muslim World? 5 jected. As the Kuwaiti editorialist Ahmed Al-Jarallah opined, Erdoğan went from “zero problems with neighbors” to “zero relations with the world,”(17) which was on full display after the Turkish strongman recommended that President Emmanuel Macron needs treatment on a mental level.(18) This met the in- tellectual discourse of Khamane’i ,who famously tweeted: “The villainous US govt repeatedly says that they are standing by the Iranian people. They lie. If you are standing by the Iranian people, it is only to stab them in the heart with your venomous daggers.”(19)

Beyond such sophisticated tagging, it is now increasingly clear that Turkey and Iran are friendless, save a few marginalized regional powers. Both are alien to Arabs and even fall somewhat on the sidelines of the Muslim world. Neither can lead Muslims since most of the latter aspire for peace, stability, and pros- perity, three concepts that neither Ankara nor Tehran care much about. Mercifully, and notwithstanding real socio-economic challenges, Saudi Arabia and Egypt are capable and ready to lead. It will certainly not be easy but will at least preserve the very soul of true Islam, which abhors extremism.

(17) Ahmed Al-Jarallah, “Turkey: From ‘Zero’ Problems to Zero Ties,” Arab Times, October 17, 2020, http://www.arabtime- sonline.com/news/turkey-from-zero-problems-to-zero-ties/. (18) “France Recalls Turkey Envoy after Erdogan says Macron Needs ‘Mental Check’,” BBC News, October 25, 2020, https:// www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54678826. (19) “Trump Warns Khamenei to be ‘Careful with his Words’ Following Tehran Sermon,” The Times of Israel, November 25, 2020, https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-warns-khamenei-to-be-careful-with-his-words-following-tehran-sermon/.

6 Can Turkey and Iran Lead the Muslim World? Commentaries