1 Cause Mapping is a Root Cause Analysis method that captures basic Problem plane crash in cause-and-effect relationships supported with evidence. What Problem(s) Airplane crash into crowded suburb Date When June 3, 2012 Cause Map Cause Mapping Time 3:43 p.m. Problem Solving • Incident Investigation • Root Cause Analysis Different, unusual, unique Both engines lost power, pilot declared Air Safety in Under Fire emergency, plane 22 years old A devastating air crash in Lagos, Nigeria killed all on board and at What's the State, city Step 1.1 Problem Where Lagos, Nigeria least 10 on the ground. This was the first major commercial air Problem? Facility, site MD-83 (Dana Air Flight 992) disaster since 2006. Safety efforts since that disaster resulted in Task being performed Why did it Final approach to airport the US FAA granting Nigerian airlines its top air-safety rating. Step 2. 2 Analysis Impact to the Goals Now concerns about air safety in Nigeria have resurfaced. happen? Safety All 153 people on plane killed At least 10 people on ground killed "We have suspended the entire Dana fleet. They will be What will be Step 3. 3 Solutions done? Environmental ? grounded as long as it takes to carry out the necessary Customer Service investigations into whether they are airworthy." Owner license suspended Production-Schedule Harold Demuren, head of Nigerian civil aviation body Property, Equip, Mtls Damage to plane Timeline Damage to residential building June 3, 2012 2:13 p.m. Dana Air Flight 992 scheduledto leave Labor, Time ? 2:54 p.m. Plane departs Abuja ? 3:42 p.m. Pilot declares an emergency, saying both engines failed Frequency 41 airplane crashes in Nigeria in 43 years 3:43 p.m. Plane crashes into residential building inLagos ~4:00 p.m. Emergency workers reach site Annualized Cost ? 2 Analysis

Basic Level Cause Map - Start with simple Why questions. Basic Cause-and-Effect Customer Service Goal After losing both engines, Dana Air flight 992 crashed into Impacted Ban on flying 153 people on Plane crashed a residential building in a highly populated suburb of Owner Safety Goal planes >20 board; 10 into residential Lagos, Nigeria, killing all 153 people on board and at least license Impacted years in people on building 10 on the ground. suspended Nigeria Production Airplane Goal older than AND Impacted permitted More Detailed Cause-and-Effect Age of Airplane was The investigation of the plane crash is still ongoing. More Detailed Cause Map airplane 22 years old However, it is known that both engines of the plane Add detail as information becomes available. lost power, causing the plane to rapidly lose altitude and crash into a highly populated area. Some of the AND/OR areas being investigated that may have contributed to Planes the crash are: Safety Goal All 153 people Financial Solution: overworked 1) a bird strike (bird remains were found in one Impacted on board killed considerations engine), ? Effect Cause 2) poor maintenance (although the plane was Evidence: Plane regularly inspected, there were also reports of leaking Evidence: on fourth trip of hydraulics and a history of poor airline safety in At least 10 the day Nigeria, which appeared to have been remedied in Safety Goal people on AND/OR recent years as indicated by the US FAA's granting of Impacted ground killed its top air-safety rating, Plane Plane lost Both Poor 3) overworked planes, likely due to financial crashed into altitude Inadequate engines lost maintenance considerations (the plane that crashed was on its residential rapidly over oversight ? power ? fourth trip of the day), and/or building suburb Property 4) the age of the airplane (at 22 years old, it was Damage to Goal Evidence: Poor Evidence: technically not permitted to fly in Nigeria, which bans plane safety history in Nigerian airlines Impacted the use of planes over 20 years old). Nigeria; reports of granted top air- leaking hydraulics safety rating by As more information is revealed during the Evidence: Routine investigation it can be added to the Cause Map. Property Damage to inspection every Goal residential 200 flight hours; Impacted building last inspected 3 days prior Copyright ThinkReliability 2012

AND/OR For a free copy of our Root Cause Analysis Template in 3 Solutions Microsoft Excel, used to create this page, visit our web site. Bird strike ? As the investigation is concluded, there will likely be more changes to Nigerian requirements and oversight Evidence: for air safety. Remains of birds Investigate Problems. Prevent Problems. found in one Houston, Texas 281-412-7766 ThinkReliability.com engine