ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR AFRICA Addis Ababa

ECONOMIC BULLETIN FOR AFRICA Vol. V, JANUARY 1965 UNITED NATIONS, New York

CONTENTS

Chapter Pages

A. I General features of world production and trade in 1963

A.II Recent developments in African trade 2

B.l Recent demographic levels and trends in Africa ...... 30

B.ll Draft outline of the first Five-Year Plan of the Republic of the Congo ...... 80

B. Ill The economic development of Zambia ...... 84 NOTE Symbols of the United Nations documents are composed of capital letters combined with figures. Mention of such a symbol indicates a reference to a United Nations document.

E/CN.I4/ 345

UNITED NATIONS PUBLICATrON

Sales No. : 65.11..K.6

Sales price : U.S.S 1.50 (or equivalent in other curriencies) LIST OF TABLES Pages A. Production, export and value of Africa's main primary commodities, 1960-1963 4 A. 2 Primary commodities: World export price index, 1959-1964 5 A. 3 Cocoa: World and African production of cocoa beans, 1953/54-1963/64 ... 6 A. 4 Cocoa: Volume and value of world and African exports of cocoa beans, 1958-1962 6 A. 5 Cocoa: Exports of cocoa beans from selected African countries, by destination, 1958-1963 7 A. 6 Cocoa: Export earnings as percentage of total export proceeds, 1958-1962 8 A. 7 Cocoa: Prices in selected international markets, 1958-1964 ... 8 A. 8 Coffee: Production in Africa, 1948/49-1963/64 9 A. 9 Coffee: Exports from selected African countries, 1959-1963 9 A. 10 Price of coffee in selected international markets, 1958-1964 10 A. 11 Tea: Production in Africa, 1948/52-1963 10 A. 12 Tea: Exports from selected African countries, 1959-1963 11 A. 13 Prices of tea in selected international markets, 1958-1964 11 A. 14 Vegetable oils and oilseeds: World exports, by major categories, from primary producing countries, 1956-1963 ... 12 A. 15 Vegetable oils and oilseeds: Exports from selected African countries, 1956-1962 13 A. 16 Groundnuts: Production in selected African countries, 1948/49-1962/63 14 A. 17 Groundnuts: Exports from selected African countries, 1956-1963 14 A. 18 Groundnut oil: Prices in selected international markets, 1959-1964 15 A. 19 Olive oil: Production in Africa, 1947/48-1962/63 16 A. 20 Olive oil: Exports from Africa, 1956-1963 16 A. 21 Palm oil: Production in selected African countries, 1948/49-1963/64 17 A. 22 Palm oil: Exports from selected African countries, 1956-1963 17 A. 23 Palm oil: Prices in selected international markets, 1959-1964 18 A. 24 Palm kernels: Production in selected African countries, 1948/49-1963/64 19 A. 25 Palm kernels and oils: Exports from selected African countries 19 A. 26 Sisal: African production of sisal, 1948/52 and 1956/63 20 A. 27 Sisal: International prices, 1952-1964 20 A. 28 Cotton: Production of cotton in Africa, 1957/58-1963/64 21 A. 29 Cotton: Exports of cotton from Africa, 1957/58-1962/63 22 A. 30 Cotton: Prices c.i.f. Liverpool, 1961/62-1963/64 22 A. 31 Rubber: World consumption of rubber, 1950-1963 23 A. 32 African exports of natural rubber, 1953-1963 23 A. 33 Wood: World and African remova1s of roundwood, 1950-1962 24 A. 34 Wood: Exports of hardwood logs from selected African countries by species, 1962 and 1963 24 A. 35 Copper: Production in selected African countries, 1958-1963 25 A. 36 Copper, Exports from Africa, 1957-1963 25 A. 37 Copper: Wholesale prices in selected international markets, 1959-1964 26 A. 38 Iron ore: Wholesale prices in selected markets, 1959-1964 27 A. 39 Iron ore (Fe content): Production in selected African countries, 1956-1962 27 A. 40 Bauxite: Production in Africa, 1958-1962 28 A. 41 Petroleum: Production in Africa, 1959-1963 29 1 * -i- B. Area and estimated total population of the world regions, 1920-60 31 B. 2 World: Regional estimated density of population, 1960 31 B. 3 Rates of growth of population in world regions, 1920-60 ... 32 B. 4 Estimated percentage of total population in urban areas in the world region, 1950 33 B. 5 Trends in total and urban population in world regions, 1800-1950 34 B. 6 Binh and death rates in world regions, 1956-60 ... 35 B. 7 Crude activity rates in world regions ...... 36 B. 8 Age specific activity rates for males in world regions 36 B. 9 Area and estimated total population by countries, 1960 38 B. 10 Africa: Estimated density of population, by sub-region 40 B.ll Rates of growth of population ...... 42 B. 12 Percentage distribution of population in age groups 43 B. 13 Sex-ratio of population 45 B. 14 Sex-ratio of population in localities of different sizes 47 B. 15 Percentage distribution by ethnic composition of total population 4 B. 16 Africa: Estimated percentage of total population in urban areas, by sub-region 50 B. 17 Rates of growth of urban and total population ...... 52 B. 18 Average size of private household and its distribution in size groups ... 53 B. 19 Crude birth rates, general fertility rates and gross reproduction rates ... 55 B. 20 Birth rate, gross reproduction rate, death rate and life expectancy at birth in the African sub- regions ...... 57 B. 21 Fertility rates (per 1000) by age of mother .. . 57 B. 22 Percentage of ever-married females by age groups 58 B. 23 Birth and death rates in urban and rural areas of selected African countries 59 B. 24 Fertility rate (per 1000 women) in monogamous and polygamous unions .. . 59 n. 25 Fertility rate (per 1000 women) in monogamous and polygamous unions, Congo (Leopold- ville), 1955-57 ...... 60 B. 26 Crude death rates, infant mortality rates and rates of natural increase ... 60 B. 27 Mortality rates by age and sex (per 1000) ...... 62 D. 28 Distribution of 24 population groups in Africa according to the level of infant mortality rate and the percentage of deaths before 28 days 65 B. 29 Expectancy of life at birth 65 B. 30 Recorded immigration and emigration ...... 66 B. 31 Sex ratio (number of males per lOO females) and age structure of the long-term international migrants ...... 67 B. 32 Crude economic activity rates by sex: indigenous (African) populations 68 B. 33 Crude economic activity rates by sex : non-indigenous (non-African) populations .. . 69 B. 34 Age specific activity rates by sex; indigenous (African) population ...... 70 B. 35 Age specific activity rates in selected African countries: non-indigenous (non-African) male populations ...... 71 D. 36 Percentage of male salaried employees and wage earners to total economically active males: indigenous (African) population ...... 72 B. 37 Percentage distribution of the economically active population in industries by sex ...... 73 B. 38 Assumed rates of growth of gross national product and population in selected African countries 77 B. 39 Growth of population under different assumptions of demographic strategy ...... 78 B. 40 Growth of gross national product under different assumptions of economic growth 79

-ii- Chapter A. I.

GENERAL FEATURES OF WORLD PRODUCTION AND TRADE IN 1963

The pace of world economi.:: growth continued primary producing countries, it reached 9 per cent. to be brisk in 1963. This was due, in the main, to As their imports increased faster than their the continued increase - though at a slower rate than exports, the balance of trade of nearly all centrally in 1962- of industrial production. Primary produc­ planned countries and most industrial market eco­ tion slackened, especially in agriculture, as a result nomies deteriorated between 1962 and 1963. The of pocr harvests. latter suffered a small loss in reserve, while in the The rate of growth was not, however, uniform former group, the USSR met the deficits, in good throughout the world. It was quicker in the industrial part, by the sale of gold. countries of Western Europe, North America and The increase in the exports of primary produc­ Japan but slower in the centrally planned, while ing countries was due, in part, to an increase in their in countries exporting primary products, the old quantum, and in part, to a rise in prices. The prices rate was just maintained. of most food products rose significantly as a result Industrial production in developed market and of the failure of harvests in industrial countries, centrally planned economies expanded by around the sharpest rises being in the case of coffee and 5 per cent, and in primary producing countries by sugar, while prices of some non-food crops, e.g, 7 per cent. jute and rubber, declined. The index of mineral Agricultural production in the first group suffer­ prices remained more or less constant. The net ed as a result of poor harvests; in the second, it result was an increase in the combined price index experienced varying fortunes in different economies, of primary commodities. In fact, commodity price but in nearly all of them the performance fell short indices, many of which had reached the bottom in of plan targets. July 1962, finished the year 1964 at the highest level since 1959. In spite of their greater export earnings World production of primary commodities in­ and the improvement in their balance of payments, creased by 1.9 per cent as compared with the rate however, the primary commodity producing coun­ of 3.9 per cent in 1961-62. tries did not allow their imports to increase signi­ The quantum of world trade expanded faster ficantly, so that their total foreign exchange reserves than in the preceding two years, while the unit value rose by approximately 25 per cent between Sep­ of exports improved slightly. In consequence, the tember 1962 and March 1964. This policy of caution value of world trade increased by more than 8 per which had its roots in the balanc ~ of payments diffi­ cent. culties of previous years seems to have been justified World trade in primary commodities showed by the subsequent behaviour of prices. In 1964 a smaller rate of growth, viz. 5.4 per cent though primary product prices in general dropped signi­ this was higher than th- rate of 3.8 per cent achieved ficantly. in the preceding year. The expansion was due mainly While the price index of primary commodities to increased trade in foodstuffs and fuels. Trade rose by 6 per cent, that of manufactured goods in vegetable oils and raw materials went up only frac­ remained unchanged, resulting in a significant im­ tionally. provement, on a global basis, of the terms of trade The export trade of industrial market economies in favour of the former. However, since the average increased by 8 per cent, chiefly in industrial commo­ price of African imports in 1963 went up more than dities. In centrally planned economies the rate of those of African exports, the terms of trade moved growth varied from 7 to 8 per cent, while in the against the continent.

-1 Chapter A. II.

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN AFRICAN TRADE

General Developments a surplus in the following year, the deficit balance of the Franc Zone and other countries, especially The exports of African countries• reached of the latter, increased appreciably. the record value of US $6,133 million in 1963. The rate of increase-12 per cent-was higher than that of world trade and of the trade of developed countries which amounted to 9 per cent and higher still than (a) Geographic Distribution the 7 per cent achieved by other developing countries. About 80 per cent of Africa's export trade in But the share of the continent in world trade re­ 1962 was directed to the countries of the European mained low, at about 4 per cent. Economic Community, the European Free Trade The increase in African exports was due almost Association, other countries of Western Europe, wholly to a rise in their volume, the index2 rising North America, and Japan. Centrally planned eco­ from 109 in 1962 to 121 while the indexz of unit nomies took about 6 per cent and some 16 per cent value moved up by one point only, from 97 to 98. went to other countries, including African countries, Imports reached a value of US $6,643 million, which accounted for 8 per cent. Between 1962 and registering a rise of 6 per cent above the level of 1963, this broad pattern underwent only slight 1962. The rise was due, almost equally, to increases ~hanges; the shares of Japan and centrally planned in volume and unit value. The net result was a re­ economies increased from 2.6 to 3.0 per cent and duction of the adverse balance of trade from US from 4.6 to 5.9 per cent respectively, while those $820 million to US $510 million, but a deteriora­ of other countries declined from 16.8 to 15.5 per tion of the terms of trade from 97 to 95. cent. The share of inter-African trade fell from 8.0 to 7.1 per cent. Twenty-five out of thirty African countries for which data are available participated in the The geographic distribution of African imports expansion of export trade. The largest increases, corresponded broadly with that of exports. Only 213 per cent and 165 per cent, were achieved by the shares of North America, chiefly the U.S., and Congo (Leopoldville) and Libya respectively, while of Japan were somewhat higher, and those of EEC Mauritania, with an increase of 86 per cent, came and African countries somewhat lower. Between third. At the other end of the scale, the export trade 1962 and 1963, the shares of EEC and EFTA of Sudan and Algeria hardly expanded, while few countries and of Japan increased at the expense of others increased by more than 20 per cent. Almost North America, the centrally planned economies all the countries increased their imports, but both and other countries including the African countries. the average increase and the range of dispersion Within this broad framework, the dependence were much less than in the case of exports. Congo's of individual African countries (or groups of (Leopoldville) imports increased by 85 per cent countries) on particular foreign countries (or groups those of most others by less than 10 per cent. of countries) as outlets for exports or sources of The largest gain in exports-14 per cent-was imports varied greatly. The "associated" African made by sterling area countries and the smallest-6 countries sent 76 per cent of their exports to the per cent-by the Franc Zone, while others increased EEC group and received 56 per cent of their imports their sales by 9 per cent. On the other hand, imports from them. Forty-six per cent of the exports went of sterling area countries increased much less than to France which supplied 56 per cent of the imports; those of the Franc Zone and still less than those of in particular, the dependence of the Maghreb coun­ other African countries. As a result, while the sterling tries on France, in respect of both exports and im­ countries converted a deficit balance in 1962 into ports, was the greatest. The non-associated countries sold 36 per cent of their exports to the EEC countries and bought t The NIESR price index excludes primary commodities 32 per cent of their imports from them, the major from the industrial countries as well as those from the part of their trade being with countries in the group centrally planned economies. other than France. Source: National Institute of Economic and Social Research - Economic Review, February 1964. Of the 23 per cent of exports from Africa to 2 Source: Financial Times (London), January 24, 1964. the EFfA countries, the United Kingdom accounted

-2 - for 86 per cent. She was responsible for 76 per cent But, while the value of coffee exported rose by 13.5 of the corresponding imports. per ent, the rises in the case of tea and cocoa were The sterling area countries accounted for 60 2.2 per cent and 2.6 per cent only, the increase for per cent of all African exports including those of the three commodities taken together being 7.8 South Africa to the U.K. and 64 per cent of all per cent. The African countries, however, maintain­ imports from the same country. Only 4 per cent ed their shares-76.6 per cent and 26.4 per cent res­ of the exports of Franc Zone countries and 6 per pectively-of world trade in cocoa and coffee. cent of other African countries went to her while Exports of tobacco dropped by 9.1 per cent, her shares in the import trades of these countries the lowest level in five years, even though its produc­ amounted to 2 per cent and 12 per cent of the res­ tion rose by 19.4 per cent. Exports of the major pective aggregates. vegetable oils and oil·seeds (except ground-nut oil), The UAR was responsible for the largest share which accounted for 6.3 per cent of all African ex­ of Africa's trade with centrally planned economies, ports, increased by 7.1 per cent only, in spite of in particular, the USSR. much higher increases in the domestic output of Intra-African trade in 1963 was estimated at all these products, except ground-nuts. US $530 million or 7 per cent of the total export trade of Africa. The figures are, however, under­ The chief agricultural raw materials-sisal, estimates; a considerable volume of trade between cotton, wool, and rubber-which were responsible neighbouring countries is not registered, and trade for 11.6 per cent of all African exports in 1963, between members of the same customs union i> increased by 15.7 per cent, the main contributions counted as internal. On a conservative estimate, being made by sisal, cotton and wool, the exports the inclusion of this non-registered trade would of which rose by 50.6 per cent, 11.2 per cent, and raise the proportion of intra-African to total African 15.9 per cent respectively. Exports of natural rubber exports to about 8.5 per cent. increased by 5.4 per cent only. Most of this trade was intra-zonal. Trade be­ Export earnings from non-ferrous metals, of £ween South Africa and Rhodesia and Nyasaland which 70 per cent is accounted for by copper, rose represented 20 per cent of the total intra-African by nearly lO per cent to reach a new peak in 1963. trade. Another 15 per cent was accounted for by Together they were responsible for 10.3 per cent the trade between the members of the Western Cus­ of all African exports. Exports of phosphates from toms Union and their neighbours and the Equatorial Africa amounted to about 62 per cent of world Cmtoms Union. The Maghreb countries were res­ exports. The value of diamonds exported from ponsible for 16 per cent. Africa increased by 49 per (ent. That of crude petrol­ South Mrica, Rhodesia and Nyasaland, eum in 1963 has not yet been firmly ascertained. Morocco, Senegal, the Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Angola But its production in Africa increased by 57.4 per and Madagascar provided 50 per cent of intra­ cent between 1962 and 1963, and as the internal African exports while Rhodesia and Nyasaland, consumption of the material is still low, one can Congo (Leopoldville), Ghana, Mozambique, the reasonably assume that its export increased by a Ivory Coast, Cameroun, the Sudan and Kenya comparable percentage. took 50 per cent of the imports. By and large, there was no significant change in the structure of African exports in 1963. Tradi­ (b) Composition tional agricultural products predominated, though The aggregate value of exports of principal their share in total exports declined in some food·stuffs by Mrican countries rose from US$446 countries. But in some countries, the production million in 1962 to US $514 million in 1963 (see of new products, especially fuels and minerals, Table A. 1.). This was the highest level ever reached, showed remarkable increases, and affected the pattern to which all major commodities, except rice, con­ of their export trade. Finally, as a result of progress tributed. The value of sugar exported increased by in industrialization, a few countries were in a posi­ 24.6 per cent, of coffee by 13.5 per cent, of maize tion to sell abroad finished and semi-finished articles, by 11.7 per cent and of citrus fruits by 10.2 per cent, such as processed food, processed minerals and while that of rice fell by 10.8 per cent. The net result timber products. was a rise of 15.2 per cent in the export earnings of these commodities, which accounted for 6.7 per cent of all exports. (c) Market developments Beverage crops were responsible for 11.7 per An analysis of world price indexes for primary cent of the value of all Mrican exports in 1963.3 commodities indicates that the rise in their prices during 1963 was fairly general, and covered minerals and agricultural products as well as other commo­ 3 Data on exports of wine for 1963 are not yet available dities. The increased availability of these commo­ but there are evidences to indicate that in 1963 these de­ clined below their 1962 level so that the net increase for dities seems to have had little influence on prices, all beverages taken together would be less than 7 per cent. which after resuming an upward trend in the late

3- TABLE A.l Production, Export and Value of Africa's main Primary commodities, 1960-1963. PRODUcnON EXPORTS VALUE Share of Share of Share!of world world African production e:xports exports 1960 1961 1962 1963 1963% 1960 1961 1962 1963 1963% 1960 1961 1962 1963 1963% (in thousand metric tons ) ( in thousand long tons ) -----(in $ million ) FOOD-STUFFS Rice 4,530 4,080 5,450 5,540 . 2.2 346 298 205 3.8 38 33 28 25 0.3 Maize 13,340 13,510 14,810 12,640 5.5 870 1,537 2,688 2,846 15.1 43 76 128 143 1.9 Bananas 980 1,030 1,040 5.1. 388 426 361 10.3 34 43 34 41 0.5 Citrus fruits 1,840 1,945 1,880 9.3 938 882 689 19.2 95 llO 98 108 1.4 Sugar 2,850 3,020 3,385 10.9 926 1.146 1,374 1.517 10.1 11 6 139 158 197 2.6 BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO Coffee (thousand metric tons) 805 710 910 970 24.4 614 656 713 723 24.4 356 367 390 443 5.9 Tea 50 55 55 55 70.8 37 42 46 45 8.1 40 43 44 45 0.6 Cocoa " 865 830 850 858 5.3 664 826 873 787 76.6 388 380 380 390 5.2 Wine (thousand hecto1it res) 2,260 2,200 7.7 17,560 16,176 242 227 3.5 Tobacco 205 200 180 215 5.2 107 114 113 103 11 6 132 124 1.8 VEGETABLE OILS .. OIL-SEEDS Ground-nut oil 191 202 194 187 66 71 66 62 0.8 .,. Olive oil 195 85 90 135 7.7 29 47 60 41 28.5 17 25 31 31 0.4 Palm-oil 890 900 850 880 74.6 377 346 287 292 55.6 73 73 58 64 0.9 Palm-kernel oil 53 50 46 31 50.0 16 12 8 9 0.1 Palm kernels 820 800 730 780 75.0 673 63 1 589 610 92.1 107 83 73 86 1.1 Ground-nuts 4,050 4,180 4,670 4,540 29.7 910 1.228 1,282 1,308 93.1 167 215 212 228 3.0 RAW MATERIALS Fibres: Sisal 368 362 386 402 68.8 361 353 398 406 73.5 78 70 81 122 1.6 Cotton 920 780 930 885 7.6 716 622 718 756 20.9 641 560 453 504 6.7 Wool 830 880 870 5.8 108 126 123 118 7.2 129 147 144 167 2.2 Rubber, natural 146 138 144 147 7.2 148 140 146 146 7.3 108 82 80 84 1.1 NON-FERROUS METALS Phosphates 10,440 10,921 11,846 61.2 10,108 10,468 10,440 12,208 61.7 107 109 116 129 1.7 Copper: Unrefincd 933 941 917 937 24.0 335 293 300 303 36.6 ~ - 544 537 550 7.3 Refined 558 584 580 586 12.9 591 623 632 629 31.9 Zinc (metal content) 258 247 241 228 7.9 169 150 154 155 11.7 16 13 26 0.3 Tin " 21 19 20 20 14.0 16 17 17 18 25.2 30 27 25 53 0.7 Lead 239 207 208 209 11.2 147 135 144 30.4 32 25 23 26 0.3 DIAMONDS (thousand carats) 26,688 32,909 31,495 30,153 89.0 16,810 9,076 9,076 12,879 213 236 193 285 3.8 FUELS Petroleum, crude 13,800 21,252 38,620 57,036 4.2 10,730 21,053 35,560 53,848 12.1 200 305 653 8.7 summer of 1962, continued it throughout 1963. cent was due to an increase in the prices of edible­ The result was that most commodity indexes finished industrial oils and animal fats, the only exception the year at the highest level since 1959. The trend being olive oil prices. Sisal and wool prices remained is all the more noticeable in that in July 1962, about fairl high and the index for textiles which showed a year and a half earlier, many of the indexes had an increase of 10.9 per cent over the preceding year reached their lowest levels for many years. reached 112 per cent, the highest point since 1957. Throughout 1963, there was a recovery in the The most important increases, however, oc­ p ices of lead and zinc, and though producers struggl­ curred in the food-stuffs and fibres groups. This ed to keep prices down to the 1962 levels, the price was due chiefly to the increases in the prices of sugar, of copper increased in the last quarter of 1963. Thus cocoa and maize, among which the greatest part was at the end of 1963 the combined index of all non­ played by sugar. The free market price of this com­ ferrous metals exceeded that of the previous year, modity rocketed upwards during the early months and even regained the 1961 level. The price of iron of 1963, and remained at a high level for the rest ore was, however, bdow the 1962 level. This brought of the year. The price index of the beverage crops the combined index of all metals down by 3.1 per rose by nearly 4.3 per cent; the sharp increases in cent. the prices of both cocoa and coffee offset the decline To sum up, by the end of 1963, the U.N. index in the prices of tea. of all primary commodities was at its highest in five The index of the agricultural non-food commo­ years, having reached the same level as in 1958. dities rose by 4 per cent, reflecting rises in the prices Other indexes showed similar rises, indicating a of almost all commodities in this group. The rise general revival in economic activity in most indus­ in the price index of fats and oil by about 6.7 per trial areas.

TABLE A.2

Primary Commodities: World Export Price Index, 1959-1964 (1958 100)

FOO D AGRICULTURAL NON FOOD MINERALS Tea Fats Cocoa Oils Metal YEAR TOTAL Total Coffee Cereals Total Oilseeds Textiles Total Ores Fuels 1959 97 93 83 97 105 lOO 98 94 97 92 1960 97 91 77 96 107 94 104 93 98 91 1961 95 90 72 98 103 97 105 92 100 90 1962 94 90 70 103 99 89 101 92 99 90 1963 100 103 73 102 103 95 112 92 96 91 1964 103 106 87 105 105 98 116 94 94 91 1962 J-M 94 89 70 103 101 92 103 92 101 90 A-J 94 90 70 105 99 90 103 92 98 90 J-S 93 90 70 103 97 87 99 92 97 90 0-D 94 92 70 101 98 88 101 92 98 90 1963 J-M 97 96 71 102 102 94 110 92 96 91 A-J 101 105 74 101 102 96 111 92 96 91 J-S 99 102 72 101 102 95 112 92 95 91 0-D 104 111 76 104 105 97 118 93 96 91 1964 J-M 105 111 87 105 106 95 122 93 99 91 A-J 103 108 89 104 104 96 115 94 102 91 J-S 101 103 87 104 104 98 113 95 106 91 0-D 102 102 86 105 105 105 110 96 111 91

Source: United Nations Monthly Bulletin of Statistics, September 1964 and March 1965.

-5- The National Institute of Economic and Social of 1963, as a result of a drop in the price index of Research, U.K., price index of agricultural exports food-stuffs in general and a sharper fall in that of from the primary producing countries was 16 per wool. cent higher at the end of the year than it had been in the last quarter of 1962.4 Further, there was a sharp upward trend in the Financial Times Index Selected Export Commodities of Sensitive Commodity Prices which rose to about (a) Beverage crops 81 to reach the highest point in seven years.s During the first half of 1964, the prices of most (i) Cocoa commodities were on the rise, mineral products After a slight decline in 1961/62 (see Table A. prices rising much more than the agricultural. At 3), world production of cocoa beans recovered in the end of the second quarter of the year, the U.N. 1962/63 to about the level of 1960/61 at 1.17 million index was about 6.3 higher than a year ago. This metric tons and reached the level of 1.24 million reflected the sharp increase in the price, especially metric tons in 1963/64. World grindings too continu­ of copper. In contrast, the index of food-stuffs showed ed to increase and reached 1.1 5 million metric tons an increase of 2.8 per cent only. During the second in 1962/63. It is estimated to rise to over 1.2 million quarter of 1964, however, commodity prices in metric tons in 1963/64. World exports in 1962 re­ general were lower than in the two previous quarters, mained at the previous year's record level of over and only slightly higher than in the same period I million tons (see Table A. 4).

TABLE A.3

COCOA: World and African production of cocoa beans, 1953/54- 1963/64

53/54 54/55 55/56 56/57 57/58 58/59 59/60 60/61 61/62 62/63 63/64 World ('000 metric tons) 781 799 841 899 768 903 1.035 1,165 1,134 1,165 1,235 Shares (per cent) Africa 60 62 61 65 59 63 64 74 74 74 71 Ghana 29 30 28 30 27 29 31 38 37 37 32 Nigeria 12 11 13 15 10 15 15 16 17 15 18 South America 29 27 29 25 29 26 26 17 17 24& 27a Brazil 20 19 20 18 21 19 19 10 10 9 13 Other 11 12 10 10 12 11 lO 9 9 2 2

Source : FAO Cocoa Statistics, Vol. 6, 1963 (up to 1961/62); FAO Commodity Review, 1964. a South and Central America.

TABLE A.4

COCOA: Volume and value of world and African exports of cocoa beans, 1958-1962

1958------1959--· ------1960 196------1 1962 Volume of world exports of cocoa beans ('000 metric tons) 642.5 748.8 897.5 1.014.8 L033.5 Volume of Mrican exports of cocoa beans ('000 metric tons) 439.8 562.4 654.0 812.7 859.3 Value of world exports of cocoa beans (million US dollars) 537.2 546.0 531.8 475.6 462.9 Value of Mrican exports of cocoa beans (million US dollars) 370.1 415.1 397.3 381.3 379.8

Source: Foreign Agriculture Circular, USDA, March 1964.

4 The NIESR price index excludes primary commodities from the industrial countries as well as those from the centrally planned economies. Source: National Institute of Economic and Social Research- Economic Review, February 1964. 5 Source: Financial Times (London), January 24, 1964

-6- TABLE A.5

COCOA: Exports of cocoa beans from selected African countries, by destination, 1958-1963 (thousand metric tons)

Other Eastern Western Europe & North Fromito Year E.E.C. Europe USSR America Africa Other Total Ghana 1958 88.1 53.0 1.3 48.0 2.1 9.8 202.3 1959 121.3 50.0 9.0 64.2 2.1 9.6 256.2 1960 126.0 62.2 36.0 62.0 3.3 21.5 311.0 1961 150.0 67.0 22.5 148.5 0.3 24.0 412.3 1962 150.1 81.0 49.0 122.0 0.6 26.4 429.1 Jan-Aug 1962 119.5 74.5 35.0 110.7 0.4 20.9 371.0 Jan-Aug 1963 104.6 58.5 60.1 77.2 0.2 24.4 325.0 Nigeria 1958 22.4 47.6 17.0 0.3 1.5 88.8 1959 70.0 47.0 26.4 0.6 1.5 145.5 1960 60.0 45.2 9.5 40.2 0.05 1.6 156.5 1961 62.3 52.0 70.2 2.2 186.7 1962 74.2 50.9 69.1 3.4 197.6 Jan-June 1962 33.9 36.7 60.6 1.9 133.1 Jan-June 1963 37.5 46.7 32.0 3.9 120.1 Ivory Coast 1958 27.7 0.5 2.8 14.6 0.5 0.5 46.6 1959 39.6 0.1 11.0 12.6 0.6 0.7 64.6 1960 42.1 0.6 4.5 13.4 2.0 2.2 64.8 1961 59.0 3.3 22.7 1.9 3.3 70.2 1962 59.5 1.6 35.4 5.3 6.2 108.0 Jan-Nov 1962 45.2 1.5 19.8 4.8 0.8 72.1 Jan-Nov 1963 57.3 0.4 16.0 2.0 3.0 78.7 Cameroona 1958 39.5 0.7 8.8 4.7 0.01 0.5 54.2 1959 41.7 0.06 6.1 5.3 0.09 0.1 53.3 1960 52.0 0.1 0.6 5.6 0.3 0.2 58.8 1961 48.8 0.1 0.3 8.6 0.2 0.2 58.2 1962 51.0 1.6 0.3 6.2 0.1 0.1 59.3 Jan-Sept 1962 39.0 1.4 0.4 6.1 0.02 0.6 47.5 Jan-Sept 1963 41.0 1.3 0.05 2.0 0.2 0.0 45.5

Source: Foreign Agriculture Circular, USDA, March 1964. a Excludes West Cameroun.

World production of cocoa beans has been ris­ the prices of cocoa dropped by about 50 per cent ing almost uninterruptedly since the 1940's, as a in 1962 (see Table A. 7). They rose by about 20 per result of high prices in the immediate post-war years, cent in 1963, but were somewhat lower in the first and of government sponsored improvements in eight months of 1964 than in the same period of 1963. cultivation practices. As most of this increase took place in Africa, her shares in world output and Exports of cocoa are a very important source world trade rose from 60 per cent in 1953/54 to 74 of foreign exchange for the main African producers per cent in 1962/63, and from 70 per cent to over (see Table A. 6). Ghana, which accounts for half 80 per cent respectively. There was a fall in the latter of Africa's exports, earns 60 per cent of her foreign to 71 per cent in 1963/64. But while the volume exchange from this crop. Nigeria, responsible for of African exports increased from 440 million in under 25 per cent of total African export of this 1958 to 859 million metric tons in 1962, or by 95 commodity, derives 20 per cent of her foreign ex­ per cent (see Table A. 4), the total value rose from change from it. The crop has a similar significance $370 million to $380 million only. The attempt for Ivory Coast, while the Cameroons and Togo, to increase foreign exchange earnings through in­ despite sharp decreases since 1958, owe 25 per cent creased production and exports was rendered of their foreign exchange earnings to it. nugatory by the severe fall in the world price of While cocoa is grown exclusively in developing cocoa. countries, the largest proportion of the exports After reaching their most recent peak in 1958, go to developed countries (namely Western Europe

-7- TABLE A.6

COCOA: Export earnings as percentage of total export proceeds, 1958-1962

Country 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 Ghana 60.5 61.9 59.0 62.5 63.3 Cameroun 49.7 39.2 37.5 29.4 28.8 Togo 39.1 34.3 38.5 27.9 27.9 Ivory Coast 20.3 31.3 23.5 22.5 23.6 Nigeria 20.1 23.8 21.1 19.8 20.3 Brazil 9.2 6.6 7.4 4.4 3.4

Source: Foreign Agriculture Circular, USDA, March 1964.

TABLE A.7

COCOA: Prices in selected international markets, 1958-1964

New York Le Havre Year A cera London Ivory Coast (US cents A era c.i.f. per lb) (Shg. per cwt) (Fr. per kg) ------1958 44.3 325/5 4.47 1959 36.6 285/6 4.26 1960 28.4 225/10 3.46 1961 22.6 179/11 2.72 1962 21.0 170/ 1 2.64 1963 25.3 208/2 3.21 Jan.-Aug. 1963 24.9 206/2 3.26 Jan.-Aug. 1964 23.4 189/3 2.91 Jan.-Sept. 1963 24.9 2.85 Jan.-Sept. 1964 23.4 2.92

Source: FAO Monthly Bulletin of Agricultural Economics and Statistics, Vol. 6, June 1964; Gill and Duffus, Cocoa Market Report, No. 174, 7 July 1964.

and the USA) which also produce most of the pro­ the removal of import duties and internal taxes cessed cocoa products; the share of developing in the main consuming countries, (2) increase of countries in the export of the manufactured products exports to relatively low income countries and in 1959/61 was only one-third, of which one-fifth centrally planned economies with higher income was provided by Ghana and Cameroon. and price elasticities, and (3) the establishment of As the producing and the consuming countries cocoa products industries in the producing countries could not agree on a minimum price at the United in Africa. Nations Cocoa Conference held in September­ October 1963, the Cocoa Producers Alliance, con­ sisting of Ghana, Nigeria, Ivory Coast, Cameroons, (ii) Coffee Togo and Brazil (responsible for 82 per cent of World production of coffee in 1962/63 was world exports) signed an agreement in September estimated at 4.0 million metric tons, a fall of about 1964, which fixed the export quotas for 1964/65 9 per cent from the record level of 4.4 million metric at 90 per cent of the basic quota, equivalent to the tons in 1961/62 (see Table A. 8). World exports, highest past production, and a minimum selling however, increa~ed by about 8 per cent to 3 million price of 90/sh per cwt. ions in 1963. The average price of the product in The longer term prospects of cocoa, and hence tnternational markets remained steady; that of the foreign exchange earnings of the important Robusta's, which accounts for 80 per cent of Africa's growers in Africa would seem to depend on (1) coffee exports, even improved.

-8- TABLE A.8

COFFEE: Production in Africa, 1948/49-1963/64

1948/49 to Designation 1952/53 1960/61 1961/62 1962/63 1963/64 World ('000 metric tons) 2,290 3,975 4,414 3,990 3,980 Shares (per cent) Mrica 12.5 20.7 17.6 23.4 24.2 Ivory Coast 2.1 4.6 3.6 4.9 6.4 Angola 2.5 4.1 3.8 4.7 4.2 Uganda 1.5 2.9 2.1 3.0 Ethiopia 1.5 1.6 1.6 2.2 2.3 Congo (Leopoldville) 0.9 1.3 1.2 1.7 1.7 Other 4.0 6.2 5.3 6.4 9.8

SourcP: FAO, Commodity Review, 1964; FAO Monthly Bulletin of Agricultural Economics and Statistirs, Vol. 12, Nov. 1963, and Vol. 11, November 1964.

TABLE A.9

COFFEE: Exports from selected African countries, 1959 to 1963 (thousand metric tons)

Country 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 World 2,600 2,633 2,716 2,805 2,959 Africa 566.0 613.7 656.1 712.9 722.8 Ivory Coast 104.8 147.6 154.7 144.7 182.1 Angola 89.0 87.2 118.2 156.9 136.4 Uganda 89.8 ll8.7 104.8 133.0 147.5 Ethiopia 45.1 51.0 56.2 62.6 66.0 Congo (Leopoldville) 91.8 58.4 56.5 33.2 40.1 Other 145.5 150.8 165.7 182.5 150.7

Source: FAO Monthly Bulletin of Agricultural Economics and Statistics, Vol. 13, June 1964, and Vol. 12, December 1964.

During the la~t 12 years the share of Africa creased the quotas from 99 per cent of the basic in world production has improved from 12.5 per quotas in 1963/64 to 102.5 per cent in February cent in 1948/52 to 24.2 per cent in 1963/64. Her 1964, followed by an additional increase in April share of world exports (in metric tons) also increased 1964. from 21.7 per cent in 1959 to 25.4 per cent in 1962 Production of coffee in Brazil in 1962/63 and (see Table A. 9). But this was a period during which 1963/64 was adversely affected by natural calamities. supply of coffee exceeded demand, and the price Nevertheless, she increased her exports sharply, of the product fell by more than 25 per cent, with and contributed to the increase in world exports the result that in spite of larger domestic production in 1963 in a considerable measure. The general and higher exports, total foreign exchange earned level of Africa's 1963/64 crop was more or less main­ from this product by African countries declined tained at the 1962/63 output level, except for very considerably. The impact was the hardest on Ivory slight variations in a few countries of the region. Coast, Angola, Uganda and Ethiopia, all of whom The future prospect of coffee as a foreign ex­ derive between 35 and 55 per cent of their foreign change earner depends on the reduction of import exchange earnings from the export of coffee alone. duties and excise taxes in consuming countries, An International Coffee Council established increased imports by centrally planned economies by the International Coffee Agreement, negotiated and developing economies, and the use of soluble under the aegis of the United Nations in 1963, in- coffee on an increasing scale.

-9- TABLE A.IO Price of coffee in selected international markets. 1958-1964 New York Le Havre New York New York Native c.i.f. Year Manizales'" Santos 4b Ugandae Ivory Coastd F r. francs USt per lb. use per lb. sb. per cwt. pet" kg. 1958 52.3 48.4 269 3.87 1959 45.2 37.0 206 3.47 1960 44.9 36.6 142 3.44 1961 43.6 36.0 132 3.30 1962 40.8 34.0 149 3.37 1963 39.6 34.1 216 3.08 1963 Jan.-April 39.8 33.3 192 3.08 1964 Jan.-April 47.3 47.3 334 3.72 1963 Jan.-October 39.6 33.5 201 3.06 1964 Jan.-October 48.7 46.8

Source: FAO Monthly Bulletin of A.trricultural Economics and Statistics, Vol. 6, June 1964, and Vol. 12, December 1964.

a Colombian Manizales, spot price, New York. b Santos No. 4, spot price, New York. c Unwashed Native Robusta, f.a.q., nearest delivery date, f.o.b., Mombasa. d Ivory C?ast, Robusta, ex-warehouse, Le Havre.

(iii) Tea million to 53 million metric tons. The share of Africa After a rise of more than 50 per cent between rose, but only from 3 per cent in 1948/52 to about 1948/52 and 1961, world production of tea seems 5.6 per cent in 1963. In 1963 world production was to have stabilized at around 1000 million metric estimated at 1,030 million metric tons, slightly above tons (see Table A. 11). During this period production the level of 1,024 reached in 1962. In Africa, aggregate in African countries-Kenya, Uganda, Tanganyika, production hardly varied, the record crop in Kenya Mozambique, Malawi, Southern Rhodesia and being offset by declines in Nyasaland and Mozam­ Congo (Leopoldville)-more than doubled from 20 bique.

T ABLE A.ll

TEA: Production in Mrica, 1948/ 52 to 1963 (thousand metric tons)

Country 1948-52 1960 1961 1962 1963

World 640.0 956.6 I ,016.3 1,024.3 1040 Africa 20.0 48.7 53.2 55.9 55 Mozambique 2.8 9 .0 10.6 9.4 8.6 So. Rl10desia & Malawi 6.7 11 .8 14.3 13.3 13 .1 Kenya 6.0 12.6 15.7 16.4 18.1 Other 4.5 15.3 12.6 16.8 15.2 Asia 540.0 704.1 756.0 754.4 760 India 280.0 321.1 354.4 343.4 345 Ceylon 140.3 197.2 206.5 211.8 220

Source: FAO Commodity Review 1964; FAO Monthly Bulletin of Agricultural Economics and Statistics, Vol. 12, November 1963, and Vol. 11, November 1964.

- 10 - TABLE A.l2

TEA: Exports from selected Mrican countries, 1959-1963 (Thousand metric tons)

Country 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 World 567 552 580 600 542 Africa 33.9 37.3 41.3 44.5 44.2 Rhodesia - Malawi 10.2 11.1 13.6 12.7 11.4 Kenya 9.7 11.0 10.7 13.5 14.9 Other 14.0 15.2 17.0 18.3 17.9

Source: FAO Monthly Bulletin of Agricultural Economics and Statistics, Vol. 13, June 1964.

TABLE A.l3

Prices of Tea in Selected International Markets, 1958-1964

Calcutta London Colombo Rupees per Auction Price Year Rupees per lb. kg. Pence per lb. 1958 2.07 4.76 54 1959 2.11 4.87 56 1960 2.06 5.34 56 1961 2.02 4.82 52 1962 2.03 5.32 53 1963 1.93 5.21 50 January 1963 1.95 4.83 53 February 1963 2.07 4.70 50 March 1963 2.18 4.48 48 April 1963 2.01 48 May 1963 1.84 47 June 1963 1.69 5.79 44 July 1963 1.74 6.41 45 August 1963 1.98 6.11 51 September 1963 2.00 5.43 54 October 1963 1.94 5.18 61 January 1964 1.84 4.70 50 February 1964 2.11 4.61 48 March 1964 2.16 4.18 47 April 1964 1.96 47 May 1964 1.81 6.64 48 June 1964 1.74 6.64 46 July 1964 1.73 6.14 46 August 1964 1.97 5.88 48 September 1964 2.16 5.49 61 October 1964 1.97 5.27 66

Source: FAO Monthly Bulletin of Agricultural Economics and Statistics, Vol. 6, June 1964 and Vol. 12, December 1964.

During the years 1959 to 1962, world export A few countries, especially U.K., account for of tea increased from 567 million to 600 million large proportions of world import of tea. But their metric tons. African countries participated in this consumption of this commodity has failed to in­ increase, their total sales abroad increasing from crease with increases in their national incomes and 33.9 million to 44.5 million metric tons, or from income per head, so that the average price of tea 7.0 per cent to 7.4 per cent of world export. has tended to go down in recent years (see Tahle 2 - 11- A. 13). This tendency, however, has mostly affected year. African production increased by about 10 the world price of high-grown tea, and the African per cent to 7.5 million metric tons or about 8.5 teas which are mostly low-medium, have not been per cent of the world total. seriously affected. Moreover, there has been some World supply of vegetable oils stood at 17.8 expansion of demand for tea in developing countries, million metric tons in 1963, fractionally below the in particular in North Africa and the Middle East, record level of 1962, the decline in edible oils out­ for the low and medium quality teas. Finally, the weighing gains in other oils. Africa's share in the conversion of tea into "instant tea" (now manufac­ total world supply of all fats and oils rose from tured in Uganda from green leaf) and packing it 8.2 to 8.8 per cent. into tea bags has probably helped to increase the consumption of tea in countries like the U.S. World exports of oil-seeds reached 9.1 million metric tons in 1962, and were expected to rise some­ what more in 1963. Exports from African countries (b) Oil-seeds and oils amounted to 2.2 million metric tons in 1962 or about World production of main oil-seeds increased a quarter of the world trade. Africa's share of world slightly between 1961/62 and 1962/63 to reach a trade in oil-seeds was thus nearly three times as high total of about 88 million metric tons in the latter as her share of world production.

TABLE A.l4

VEGETABLE ORS AND OIL-SEEDS: World exports, by major categories, from primary producing countries, 1956-1963 (thousand metric tons, oil equivalent)

1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963

Edible Ground-nuts 896 819 870 836 749 829 957 (1392) Soyabeans 865 933 1039 1292 1403 975 1380 14ll Cottonseed 375 294 169 346 293 251 267 Rape seed 55 88 118 119 90 77 139 Sunflower 100 100 133 156 216 260 312 Sesame 48 45 41 52 68 60 75 Olive 106 129 89 130 199 186 207 Total 2445 2408 2459 2932 3019 2638 3338

Edible-industrial Coco-nut 1357 1395 1089 966 1229 1318 1219 Palm kernel 416 390 430 420 404 390 359 366 Palm 558 540 570 570 595 573 511 Total 233 1 2325 2089 1956 2229 2281 2089

Industrial Linseed 367 544 393 463 428 456 445 Castor 127 150 136 141 166 170 164 Tung 65 68 75 62 56 40 41 Total 559 762 604 666 649 666 649 Total, all oil-seeds 5335 5495 5152 5555 5897 5585 6076

Source: Commonwealth Economic Committee- A Review of Vegetable Oils and Oilseeds, 1964.

- 12 - TABLE A.l5

Vegetable Oils and Oil-seeds: Exports from Selected African Countries, 1956-1962 (Thousand metric tons, oil equivalent)

1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 WORLD 5,334 5,495 5,152 5,555 5,897 5,585 6,076 Africa Nigeria 666 560 680 690 610 662 625 Senegal and Mali 183 225 256 245 230 276 263 Congo (Leopoldville) 225 236 251 274 240 211 202 Sudan 71 84 51 79 85 92 129 Portuguese Africa 83 85 89 80 75 104 98 Gambia, Ghana, Sierra Leone 55 53 67 52 46 53 58 Tunisia 10 39 42 78 26 45 54 Niger 43 27 47 28 27 36 34 East Mrica 44 47 47 43 43 34 33 Dahomey 45 37 48 31 46 40 31 Guinea 10 10 9 11 12 12 13

Source: Commonwealth Economic Committee, A Review of Vegetable Oils and Oil-seeds, 1964.

On the other hand, while world exports of reached a new peak of 14.8 million metric tons, vegetable oils amounted to about 2.6 million metric and rose to 15.3 million metric tons in 1963/64, tons in 1962, exports from African countries added In both 1962/63 and 1963/64 (see Table A. 16). up to 0.4 million metric tons, or less than one-sixth. African production amounted to 4.5 million metric In other words, Africa exported a much higher tons or about 30 per cent of the world total. Between proportion of her total production of oil-seeds than 1948/49 and 1962/63, the world production increased the rest of the world taken together; usually in the by 54 per cent, but production in Mrica rose by 80 form of oil-seeds rather than oils. Only in the case per cent. Nigeria. the leading producer in Mrica, of ground-nuts and, in a smaller measure, of pahn, which accounts for half the world export of ground­ does the proportion of exports in the form of oil nuts and one quarter of ground-nut oil, has in her appear to be high. 1962-68 plan made provisions for large expansion In the case of most oil-seeds. African countries in the ouput of the nuts and the oil. export a high proportion of their domestic output. Following sharp increases in 1961 and 1962 In some cases, e.g. palm kernels, palm oils and from the depressed level of 1960, world exports of ground-nuts, the share of African countries is high in both world output and world exports; in others, ground-nuts recovered slightly in 1963 (see Table e.g. cottonseed, she has a much higher share in world A. 17). Most Mrican countries increased their export export than in world output. Evidently, in almost of ground-nuts and of oil, except Senegal which all these instances, fluctuations in world price and maintained her export of oil but reduced that of world demand for these commodities affect the the oil-seed. African economies. The effect is, however, likely The prices of ground-nuts and ground-nut oil to be greatest in the case of commodities like ground­ nuts, palm kernels, and oils which are important have been on the decJine since 1960 (see Table A. sources of foreign exchange for particular countries. 18). As these products are important sources of foreign exchange for Gambia, Senegal, Niger, Nigeria and others, some of these have recently held meet­ (i) Ground-nuts ings with a view to creating an Mrican Ground-nuts In 1962/63, worJd production of ground-nuts Council.

-13- TABLE A. l6

GROUND-NUTS: Production in selected African countries, 1948/49-1962/63 (thousand metric tons)

1948/49 to 1952/53 1957/58 1958/59 1959/60 1960/61 1961/62 1962/63 1963/64 World 9,600 13,600 14,000 12,800 14,000 14,399 14,800 15,300 Africa 2,440 4,100 3,620 3,460 4,040 4,120 4,540 4,540 Algeria 690 1,300 1.025 900 1,150 1,245 1,515 1,361 Senegal 558 900 765 873 892 995 874 907 South Africa 103 140 195 214 261 193 260 205 Niger 61 193 150 152 205 220 Uganda 153 157 163 152 147 152 163 Sudan 19 129 138 110 192 177 149 292 Chad 172 190 175 130 140 Congo (Leopo1dville) 155 177 169 174 175 130 120 Upper Volta 52 45 94 110 11 3 Gambia 63 98 65 56 87 94 96 Cameroon 92 63 66 75 78 77 94 Portuguese Guinea 37 60 64 64 64

Source: FAO Production Yearbook Vol. 14, 1960 and Vol. 17, 1963 and FAO Monthly Bulletin of Agricultural Economics and Statistics 1964.

TABLE A.l7

GROUND-NUTS: Exports from selected Mrican countries, 1956-1963 (thousand metric tons)

Jan.-Mar. 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 19633 1964° World 1,497 1,296 1,378 1,251 1,038 1,328 1,399 1,392 Africa 1,034 951 1,226 1,095 910 1,228 1,282 1,308 334.2 Nigeria 455 307 521 505 337 502 538 623 130 Senegal and Mali 188 278 329 287 253 330 317 224 93c Sudan 64 66 60 63 66 83 118 11 6 32 Niger 90 57 87 53 51 67 69 76 32 South Africa 57 51 25 42 47 66 50 75 28 Rhodesia and Nyasa1and 22 17 9 14 21 23 41 65 Gambia 37 51 64 42 33 52 59 41 12 Portuguese Guinea 26 28 30 30 18 33 32 31 Uganda 9 11 8 3 10 10 8 3 0.4 Cameroon 9 8 14 7 4 10 8 18 2 Ma~agascar 9 7 8 7 6 9 8

Sources: Commonwealth Economic Committee - A Review of Vegetable Oils and Oil-seeds, 1964 (up to 1962) and Tropical Pro- ducts Quarterly, June 1964. a Preliminary. . b Data for January-March, 1964 represents ground-nuts-in-shell. e Senegal only.

- '1:4- TABLE A.l8

Ground-nut Oil: Prices in Selected International Markets, 1959-1964 (US cents per kg.)

European Ports a United I 11 France b India c States d ANNUAL 1959 31.0 30.0 50.0 31.1 27.8 1960 32.1 32.7 50.0 39.0 33.3 1961 30.6 33.0 53.3 43.7 35.5 1962 29.6 27.4 52.5 39.4 36.2 1963 27.7 26.8 54.5 37.5 25.8 MONTHLY, 1963 January 26.1 52.3 34.4 28.2 February 26.6 26.5 52.3 35.9 27.8 March 26.8 26.4 52.7 34.0 27.1 April 26.5 26.2 52.9 35.9 26.2 May 28.5 26.9 53.1 38.0 25.8 June 28.5 27.5 53.1 39.4 25.8 July 28.6 27.4 53.1 29.3 26.5 August 26.5 56.7 41.4 24.3 September 26.6 56.7 40.5 24.0 October 28.1 27.6 56.7 38.4 22.7 November 27.8 27.5 56.7 35.5 24.7 December 27.6 27.2 56.7 37.4 23.4 MONTHLY, 1964 January 27.3 27.0 56.7 39.3 February 26.6 25.8 56.7 40.6 March 56.5 41.0 23.4 April 56.5 44.1 24.5 May 56.5 46.5 26.0 June 33.3 56.7 50.4 28.0

Source: FAO Mothly Bulletin of Agricultural Economics and Statistics, April, 1964 and October, 1964, Vol. 10. a European ports I South Africa, 20 per cent bulk, spot price Rotterdam. II from January 1957, British West Africa, 3-4 per cent nearest forward shipment; from January 1961, Nigerian nearest forward shipment. b France Relined for all food uses, 1,000 kg. lote, delivered in drums, wholesale prices, ex-mill. c India Raw, filtered, ex-mill Bombay. d United States Crude, tank cars, f.o.b. south eastern mills.

(ii) Olive oil are due to the existence of a two-year cycle, having its origin in biological factors. The two-year cycle, World production of olive oil amounted to moreover, does not coincide in the various produc­ 1.7 million metric tons in 1963/64 (see Table A. ing countries. 19). In the two preceding years 1962/63 and 1961/62, the output had been .98 and 1.47 million metric World export of olive oil, too, fluctuates from tons respectively. In the current season it is reckoned year to year, but less widely than world output. to have dropped to around 1 million metric tons. It fell from 214 thousand metric tons in 1960 to 203 thousand in 1961 to rise again to 229 thousand Production in Africa also fluctuated from 85 in the following year (see Table A. 20). Exports thousand tons in 1961/62 to 100 thousand in 1962/63 from African countries of which 90 to 95 per and to 135 thousand in 1963/64. The largest producer cent is accounted for by Tunisia, however, rose in Africa is Tunisia, but Morocco and Algeria make sharply in these years from 29.5 thousand metric tons substantial contributions to the continental total. in 1960 to 47.1 thousand in 1961 and 59.6 thou­ Africa's share of world production was 8.2 per cent sand in 1962. (The export in 1959 had, however, in 1963/64. been as high as 85 thousand tons.) Mrica's share of The large variations in the output of olive oil world export in 1962 was about 25 per cent.

2 * 15 -- TABLE A.l9

OLIVE OIL: Production in Africa 1947/48 and 1962/63 (thousand metric tons)

1947/48 to 1952/53 1957/58 1958/59 1959/60 1960/61 1961/62 1962/63 1963/64 World 1,000 1,210 1,]30 1,220 1.400 1,470 980 1,760 Africa 90 90 190 100 195 85 100 135 Tunisia 53 50 135 59 142 37 52 89 Morocco 13 8 27 25 30 20 27 20 Algeria 18 17 17 16 14 17 15 17 Libya 4 15 6 6 11 4 10 1

Source: FAO Production Yearbook, 1960 and 1963, and FAO, Monlhly Bulletin of Agrlcu/tura/ Economics and Statistics, Vol. 10, October, 1964.

1 Relates to oil extracted in Tripolitania by mechanical methods only.

TABLE A.20

OLIVE OIL: Exports from Africa, 1956-1963 (thousand metric tons)

1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 World 126.6 153.2 108.4 154.6 213.9 203.5 223.8 142.0 Africa 31.5 59.8 48.2 77.0 29.5 47.1 59.6 40.7 Tunisia 12.7 31.2 40.0 71.0 24.4 44.2 53.0 29.0 Algeria 9.6 5.9 4.9 3.3 2.9 0.8 5.0 3.0 Libya 0.4 5.5 2.4 1.4 0.8 1.7 1.4 Morocco 8.7 17.2 0.8 1.3 1.3 0.4 0.2 8.7

Source: Commonwealth Economic Committee - A Review of Vegetable Oils and Oil-seeds, 1964 and FAO Monthly Bulletin of Agricultural Economics and Statistics, Vol. 10, Octobe·r, 1964.

The high share of Africa in world trade relative to date by measures for international stabilization to that in world production is due to the fact that of the olive oil industry. The International Olive the leading producers of olives and olive oil- Italy, Oil Agreement renewed in 1963 for another five Spain. Portugal and G reece- are also the main con­ years does not provide provisions for regulation sumers; they export small or very small fractions of production or exports, while the International of their domestic ouput. Olive Oil Council which is to meet shortly to decide on stabilization proposals, submitted to it last The price of Spanish edible olive oil at European November, has a number of hurdles to cross, in ports was £190 per 1000 kg in May 1964, having particular, the possible agreement of EEC countries fallen from £400 per 1000 kg a year earlier. The to impose a levy on olive oil imports to protect average price in 1962 was £225. Wide swings in the relatively high producer prices of Italian oil. price are thus a basic feature of the world's olive oil economy. Moreover, the domestic price of the product varies widely in the producing countries; (iii) P alm-oil prices in Spain and Tunisia for example are between The distinction between the seed (or the nut) 30 and 50 per cent below those in Italy and Greece. and the oil that has been made in the case of other These factors and the lack of effective stockpiling vegetable oils does not apply to palm-oil, since the arrangements explain the very slow progress made oil is extracted directly from the tree on the spot.

- 16 - World production of palm-oil declined slightly outputs have shown a tendency to fall, the latter from l.l6 million in 1961/62 to 1.13 million metric more than the former. tons in 1962/63, but rose again to 1.18 million metric Following a rising trend, world exports of palm tons in 1963/64 (see Table A. 21). African produc­ oil reached a total of 617 thousand metric tons in tion, which accounts for a very large proportion 1960, after wh.ch it experienced a sharp decline to of world total, too declined from .90 million to .86 about 542 thousand metric tons in 1962 (see Table million metric tons over the period, 1948/49-52/53 A. 22). The falling demand for the oil, especially to 1962/63, world output rose by 16 per cent, that in Europe and within it, in U.K., is reflected in its of African countries by 7.5 per cent. But in more price at European markets from about £90 per long recent years both world production and African ton in 1957 to about £76 in 1962.

TABLE A.21

PALM-OIL: Production in selected African Countries 1948/49-1963/64 (thousand metric tons)

1948/49 to 1952/53 1957/58 1958/59 1959/60 1960/61 1961/62 1962/63 1963/64 World 970.3 1179.6 1170.5 1140.0 1140.0 1160.3 1129.8 1180.0 Mrica 800.0 910.4 929.7 910.4 890.0 900.2 859.6 880.0 Nigeria 345.7 410.0 450.2 425.7 414.8 421.9 370.0 405.0 Congo (Leopoldville) 172.2 233.5 225.1 245.2 233.7 223.5 228.6 223.5 Cameroon 5.3 25.4 23.1 24.8 27.0 Congo (Brazzaville) 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.1 6.5 Dahomey 8.8 14.2 11.2 13.2 13.2 12.1 13.2

Source: FAO Production Yearbook, 1960 and 1963, and FAO Monthly Bulletin of Agricultural Economics and Statistics, Vol. 10, October, 1964.

TABLE A.22

PALM-OIL: Exports from selected African countries, 1956-1963 (thousand metric tons)

1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 World 575.5 558.9 596.7 593.7 617.4 598.4 542.4 524.0 Africa 372.0 348.6 363.1 391.5 391.5 361.2 308.5 292.1 Congo (Leopoldville) 151.3 153.0 163.6 183.9 167.1 153.7 151.1 138.5 Nigeria 188.2 169.2 173.2 186.6 186.3 167.2 120.6 127.7 Angola 8.8 9.1 9.0 8.7 13.0 14.6 15.0 18.0 Dahomey 16.2 10.4 12.2 8.6 10.6 11.1 9.2 9.2 To go 2.1 0.9 0.9 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.2 Cameroon 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.6 8.3 9.9 7.1 Congo (Brazzaville) 3.1 3.8 2.9 2.8 3.8 3.4 3.9 Ivory Coast 1.6 2.1 0.8 0.4 1.6 0.4 1.2

Source: Commonwealth Economic Committee, A Review of Vegetable Oils and Oil-seeds, 1964 (September, 1962); Tropical Pro­ ducts Quarterly, June, 1964, and FAO Mo11thly Bulletin of Agricultural Economics and Statistics, Vol. 10, October, 1964.

17 -- TABLE A.23

PALM-OIL: Prices in selected international markets, 1959-1964 (US cents per kg.)

European Portsa United Statesb I 11 Ill ------Annual 1959 23.8 23.7 23.8 32.2 1960 22.4 22.2 22.4 31.3 1961 22.6 22.6 22.8 32.2 1962 21.4 21.2 21.0 30.6 1963 22.7 22.0 21.8 30.9 Monthly, 1963 January 22.0 21.4 21.0 30.4 February 22.0 21.5 21.2 30.9 March 21.9 21.4 21.2 30.9 April 21.9 21.3 .21.2 30.9 May 22.0 21.4 '21.2 30.9 June 22.6 22.0 21.7 30.9 July 22.9 22.3 22.0 30.9 August 23.1 22.4 22.2 30.9 September 23.1 22.4 22.2 30.9 October 23.4 22.7 30.9 November 23.7 22.8 22.7 31.3 December 23.8 22.9 22.8 31.3 Monthly, 1964 January 23.9 23.2 23.0 February 23.8 23.3 22.7 March 23.8 23.1 22.7 31.3 April 23.8 23.1 22.7 31.3 May 23.7 23.1 22.8 31.3 June 23.9 23.2 23.0 30.9 July 24.0 23.4 23.0 30.9 August 24.0 23.4 23.0

Source: FAO Monthly Bulletin of Agrictdtura/ Economics and Statistics, April 1964, & October 1964, Vol. 10. a Eu ropean Ports - I. Congo (Leopoldville), S per cent bulk nearest forward shipment, c.i.f. Antwerp; 11. Sumatra, S per cent bulk, nearest forward shipment, c.i.f.; lii. Nigerian, S per cent bulk, nearest forward shipment, c.i.f. b United States - Clarified, drums, f.o.b. New York (includes 3 cents per lb. processing tax through 1957).

(iv) Palm kernels and oil total fell from 687 thousand to 590 thousand metric tons over the . ame period. World production of palm kernels dropped World export of palm-kernel oil had fallen from 1.04 million in 1961/62 to .98 million metric even more sharply from 104 thousand metric tons tons in 1962/63 but rose to the former level again in 1959 to 80 thousand metric tons in 1961. Exports in 1963/64 (see Table A. 24). African output declined from Congo (Leopoldville) which in the earlier from .80 to .73 million metric tons over the same year was responsible for 60 per cent of world ex­ period and the continent's share of world output ports and 98 per cent of the African suffered the from 77 per cent to 74 per cent. The share had been largest reduction, falling from 60 thousand metric 81 per cent in 1958/59. tons in 1959 to 31 thousand metric tons in 1963 World exports of palm kernels dropped steadily (see Table A. 25). from 767 thousand metric tons in 1959 to 670 thous­ The prices of palm-kernels and palm-kernel and in 1962 (see Table A. 25). African exports, oil fell by about one-third between 1959 and 1962. which account for more than 90 per cent of world There was some recovery in 1963.

- 18 - TABLE A.24 PALM KERNELS: Production in selected African countries, 1948/49-1963/64 (thousand metric tons)

1948/49 to 1952/53 1957/58 1958/59 1959/60 1960/61 1961/62 1962/63 1963/64 World 890.1 989.6 1069.9 1040.4 1040.4 1040.4 980.5 1040.0 Africa 749.8 790.5 869.7 840.3 820.0 799.6 729.5 780.0 Nigeria 371.9 418.5 462.8 434.8 424.9 431.2 363.9 419.7 Congo (Leopoldville) 117.0 143.8 143.8 161.7 142.1 126.9 ll6.7 101.6 Sierra Leone 74.3 53.7 55.5 58.7 55.4 58.7 62.0 52.8 Dahomey 42.9 44.7 60.0 43.8 61.3 48.5 43.9 49.3 Cameroon 32.5 23.4 23.6 26.9 26.6 32.8 Guinea 24.8 20.5 19.4 23.2 23.0 18.7 22.4 23.0 Angola 11.1 12.6 13.7 7.5 5.2 10.2 11.6 18.0 Ivory Coast 8.8 10.5 17.3 14.6 16.4 12.5 10.7 10.4 Togo 9.0 6.2 12.0 8.1 13.5 11.1 10.4 10.4 Liberia 17.2 10.6 1l.l 19.3 15.2 12.9 8.6 9.0

Source : FAO Production Y earbook, 1960 and FAO Monthly Bulletin of Agricultural Econom!cs and Statistics. Vol. 10 October 1964.

TABLE A.25 PALM KERNELS AND OILS: Exports from selected African countries (thousand metric tons)

1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 Palm-Kernels World 790 715 792 767 749 716 670 661 Africa 650 586 658 687 673 631 590 610 Nigeria 458 412 448 437 425 418 373 404 Sierra Leone 59 54 56 59 56 59 62 54 Dahomey 50 45 60 44 61 49 44 51 Angola 9 12 13 7 5 10 11 16 Cameroon 16 14 13 22 20 20 6 14 Togo .11 7 12 8 14 11 10 13 Ivory Coast 12 12 17 15 16 12 11 10 Congo (Leopoldville) 35 30 39 40 20 13 19 3 Palm-kernel oil World 63.7 77.3 82.2 104.4 87.5 80.1 78.0 63.0 Africa 44.7 55.1 58.4 61.1 54.2 53.5 45.4 Congo (Leopoldville) 44.5 54.5 57.7 60.2 52.5 50.0 41.9 31.0 Angola 0.8 1.1 3.3 2.6 Cameroon 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.8 Nigeria 0.1

Source : FAO, M outhly Bulletin of Agricultural Economics & Statistics. Vol. I 0, October 1964.

(v) Others creased from 114 thousand to 124 thousand metric African shares in world production and ex­ tons or by about 9 per cent. ports of rapeseed and mustard seed, whjch had been Africa's share of world production of copra very small. went down still further between 1961 is small, that of sunflower seed smaller still, and of and 1962. On the other hand, while she produces soya beans insignificant. Her export of copra, how­ about one-fifth of the world's sesame seed, she ever, amounts to 5 per cent of the world total. But accounts for three-fourths of world export of the this fell from 98 thousand metric tons in 1961 to 78 product. Between 1961 and 1962, her exports in- thousand metric tons in 1962. The largest importers

-19- of copra are Western Europe, North America and Africa as a whole recorded an increase of 40 the Far East. In all these areas the price of copra per cent in output over the 1953-63 decade, the fell considerably between 1959 and 1962. biggest increases occurring in Kenya:, Madagascar On the total of 3,100 thousand metric tons and Angola, where production has doubled, though of linseed produced in the world, African countries, Tanganyika. the largest producer, had an expansion chiefly Ethiopia, accounted for 75 thousand metric of only 20 per cent. Und·!r her new five-year plan, tons or about 2.4 per cent. Her production rose however, Tanganyika is expected to increase her by 10 thousand. But world output and African output by 25 per cent over present levels, to 270,000 tons by 1969. production increased by < bout 13 per cent between 1961//62 and 1962/63. The share of sisal in world trade in hard fibres is almost 80 per cent and world trade in sisal in­ (c) Fibres creased by 15 per cent between 1956 and 1963, with Africa's shar~ in world export total for sisal rising (i) Sisal from 64 per cent to 69 per cent during this period. Sisal accounts for about two-thirds of world East Africa, the major exporting area on the con­ production of hard fibres. Over half of the African tinent, accounted for 70 per cent of Africa's exports production comes from Tanganyika. of sisal in 1963.

TABLE A.26

SISAL: African Production of Sisal, 1948/52 and 1956/63

1948/52 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 World ('000 metric tons) (320) (489) (517) (536) (549) (569) (568) (582) (593) percentage share Africa 70 64 63 64 67 66 65 67 69 Tanganyika 43 39 36 37 38 37 35 37 37 Kenya and Uganda 12 8 8 9 10 11 11 10 12 Angola & Mozam. 13 13 15 15 15 15 15 17 15 Others 2 4 4 3 4 3 4 3 5

Source: Hard fibres, A Quarterly Review, June 1964; FAO Production Yearbook.

TABLE A.27

SISAL: International Prices, 1952-1964

Philippines Ex-BEA E1(-BEA Manilla I Sisal No. 1 Sisial No. 1 New York New York Europ. port cents/lb. cents/lb. £/ton 1952 24 . 6 20.4 158.5 1954 18.6 11.1 86.8 1956 22.1 10.2 78.5 1958 25.7 9.5 72.2 1960 31.7 12.9 102.1 1961 29 . 5 11.8 90.0 1962 23.2 12.7 100.5 1963 22.5 18.3 144.3 January-June 1963 22.8 17.7 141.5 January-June 1964 23.8 18.8 148.0

Source: Hard Fibres, June 1964.

-20 - The bulk of East African sisal exports goes to share in the total hard fibre market. This would Europe, the United Kingdom taking almo.>t one­ seriously affect countries like Tanganyika and Kenya third. More than a further third is exported to other which account for respectively one-third and nearly West European countries, and the remainder to one-seventh respectively of their total foreign ex­ the rest of the world, particularly to the United change earnings from the export of sisal. States, Canada and Australia. The outstanding event on the world sisal market during the past two years was the rather steep price (ii) Cotton rise of the most widely traded category from £100.5 per ton to £148 per ton the first half of 1964 (see World production of cotton which had been Table A. 27). Only during the Korean war were increasing at an average rate of 4 per cent a year sisal prices higher. during the post-war period, reached a record level A record world grain harvest in 1962, an in­ of 10.9 million metric tons in 1963/64 (see Table A. creasing application of fibre-using baling machinery, 28). Africa's output also rose to a new peak of a shortage of sisal due to a temporary speculative 910,000 tons; the rate of growth in Africa was some­ withdrawal from the market by Brazilian producers, what slower, so that Mrica's share of world output and reduced supplies of henequen caused by drought fell from 9.2 per cent in 1948/49-52/53 to 8.7 per (particularly in Mexico), stimulated demand for cent in 1962/63. sisal which is utilized extensively for baler and binder World export of raw cotton, other than linters, twine. Increases in export duties on this commodity fell from 3.7 million metric tons in 1961 to 3.4 million in Tanganyika imparted a further impulse to up­ in 1962. Exports from Africa declined proportionate­ ward price movement. ly from .70 million metric tons to .61 million over However, in August-September 1964, the ex­ the same period (see Table A. 29). piration of a number of long-term contracts, which For Mrica as a whole, cotton is the most im­ had reduced market transactions to a minimum, portant single export commodity next to gold and the re-entry of Brazil into the market, and large­ petroleum. The degree of dependence on export scale de-stocking by dealers brought down the price earnings from cotton is very high not only for the of the most widely traded grade, No. 31, to £113 two leading producers but also for some of the in September from £148 which it was fetching shortly smaller ones. In 1959/61 the relative proportions before (see Table A. 27). were: UAR - 62 per cent; Sudan 57 per cent; The future of sisal depends greatly on the future Uganda- 43 per cent; Central Mrican Republic price of man-made fibres such as polypropylene 45 per cent; and Chad - 91 per cent. Moreover, which has the advantage of strength, low weight Mrica is responsible for 43 per cent and 82 per cent and chemical resistance. While on account of its of the world output of long staple and extra long high price polypropylene is not as yet seriously staple cottons respectively, the main producing threatening sisal's position nevertheless technolo­ areas being Uganda and UAR and Sudan and gical progress in the development of this and other UAR. man-made fibres. stimulated possibly by high sisal During the post-war period mill consumption prices may result in a substantial dwindling of sisal's in the majority of important consuming areas in

TABLE A.28

COTTON: Production of cotton in Africa, 1957/58- 1963/64

57/58 58/59 59/60 60/61 61/62 62/63 63/64a World ('000 metric tons) 9,026 9,737 10,261 10,148 9,981 10,607 10,895 Shares (per cent) Africa 8.4 9.2 8.6 8.8 7.8 8.7 8.1 UAR 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.6 3.3 4.3 4.0 Sudan 0.5 1.2 1.2 1.1 2.1 1.4 1.1 Uganda 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.6 Other 2.8 2.8 2.4 2.5 2.1 2.4 2.4

Source: Cotton-World Statistics, Quarterly Bulletin of the International Cotton Advisory Committee, Vol. 17, No. 9 (Part II), April 1964. a Preliminary.

21- TABLE A.29

COTTON: Exports of cotton from Africa, 1957/58 - 1962/63 (thousand metric tons)

57/58 58/59 59/60 60/61 61/62 62/63 World 3,112.4 2,950.2 3,804.4 3,700.1 3,384.1 3,458.7 Africa 607.8 736.7 801.8 705.4 611.8 712.3 UAR 273.6 300.5 400.0 344.5 244.1 296.4 Sudan 85.2 145.9 128.1 95.2 138.8 171.3 Uganda 65.0 87.2 52.0 57.5 47.7 45.1 Other 184.0 203.1 221.7 208.2 181.2 199.5

Souru: Cotton - World Statistics, Quarterly Buffetin of the International Cotton Advisory Ounmiuee, Vol. 17, No. 9 (Part ll).

TABLE A.30 Cotton Prices c.i.f. Liverpool 1961 /62- 1963/64 (US cents. per lb)

United States Orleans Uganda Egypt Texas B.P. Sudan Meooufi Ml" 52 G5s F.G . 1962/62 --~~~----28.95 ------~~------38.00 43.10 1962/63 27.92 33.98 36.89 40.77 August-February 1962/63 28.34 33.93 36.74 40.70 August-February 1963/64 32.14 35.66 39.27 43.67

Source: Cotton- World Statistics, Quarterly Bulletin of the International Cotton Advisory Committee, Vol. 17, No. 9 (Part II), April 1964.

developing countries as well as the developed, ex­ of rubber (natural and synthetic) doubled from 2.3 cept U.S. and U.K.. increased at about the same million metric tons to 4.6 million metric tons (see rate as world production, while import demand Table A. 31). But while the share of synthetic rubber from developed countries, except U.S. and centrally increased from 25 per cent to 51 per cent, that of planned economies rose considerably. Both UAR natural rubber fell from 75 per cent to 49 per cent. and Sudan increased their exports of long and extra The change has been the greatest in the U.S., the long staple cotton to these countries. largest consumer of rubber. African production, In 1963/64 world production of cotton is esti­ however, increased by 148 per cent from 1948/49- mated to have been somewhat larger than in the 52/53 to 1963, the largest increase taking place in previous year (see Table A. 28). Exports were ex­ Nigeria, the chief African producer. In recent years, pected to reach the highest level in the post-war while Nigerian production has gone up, output period and mainland China increased her purchases in Liberia, the second largest African producer, considerably, benefiting UAR. Sudan, Tanganyika, has dropped. Uganda and Nigeria. Export prices especially of World exports of natural rubber increased the extra long staples were likely to rise. from 1.67 million metric tons in 1953 to 2.04 million The post-war cotton market has been strongly metric tons by 1963, or by 22 per cent. Exports influenced by U.S. policies, its price support and from Africa, however, rose from 79 thousand metric export subsidy programmes and special cotton tons to 149 thousand metric tons or by 90 per cent disposal arrangements as well as by the increasing over the same period (see Table A. 32). competition of synthetics. World prices of natural ~ubber (R.S.R. No. I) (d) Natural rubber in New York have, since 1960, declined from 38.2 Between 1950 and 1963, world consumption to 23.4 US cents per pound.

- 22 -- TABLE A.31

RUBBER: World Consumption of rubber, 1950-1963 (thousand metric tons)

Synthetics share Year Natural Synthetic Total of total 1950 1,748 589 2,337 25 1953 1,682 886 2,567 34 1955 1,920 1,079 2,999 36 1957 1,927 1,280 3,208 40 1959 2,149 1,605 3,754 43 1961 2,166 1,951 4,117 47 1963 2,256 2,374 4,630 51 Jan-April 1963 749 794 1,543 51 Jan-April 1964 742 874 1,615 54

Source: Rubber Statistical Bulktin, Vol. 18, July 1964.

TABLE A.32

African Exports of Natural Rubber, 1953-1963a (thousand metric tons)

Year World Africa Nigeria Liberia Congo Cameroon 1953 1,668 79 21 36 18 2.7 1955 1,875 100 30 40 26 3.6 1957 1,861 118 41 40 35 3.0 1959 2,052 144 54 45 41 4.0 1961 2,060 140 56 42 36 4.9 1963 2,037 149 64 41 37 4.3 Jan-April 1963 650 51 23 13 12 1.4 Jan-April 1964 703 56 27 13 12

Source: Rubber Statistical Bulletin, Vol. 18, July 1964.

(e) Wood hardwood varieties). By contrast, exports of process­ ed wood were small and that of pulp and pulp pro­ Ninety per cent of total removals of wood in ducts smaller still. Africa is thus primarily an ex­ Africa is used as fuel and only 10 per cent for in­ porter of unprocessed wood and an importer of dustrial purposes (see Table A. 33). This is about processed products. the reverse of the ratio obtaining in developed coun­ tries. But between 1950 and 1962, while the removal A large proportion of trade in forest products of wood in Africa for fuel increased by 9 per cent, is between high income countries, but since 1950, that for industrial uses increased by 170 per cent­ some trade has developed between Japan and other from 8 million to 20 million metres. This improved Asian countries, and between African countries the ratio of industrial wood to total wood removed and Western Europe. Among African countries, in Africa and also raised Africa's share in the world Congo (Brazzaville) and Gabon are the most de­ supply of the former. pendent on the export of wood for foreign exchange. In spite of this improvement, however, this In recent years production of pulp, paper and share amounted to 2 per cent only in 1962. The paper board in African countries has increased, over-all proportion was, moreover, the result of a while a few of these have even succeeded in export­ much larger share of Africa in the export of round­ ing these products. In addition, other countries wood, broadleaved logs and sawn wood (of tropical are planning to produce these products as well.

-23- TABLE A.33

WOOD: World and African removals of Roundwood,a 1950-1962 (World and selected regions)

World Africa Asia North America Total Industrial Total Industrial Total Industrial Total Industrial million cubic metres 1950 1,442 719 96 7.4 215 49 369 305 1952 1,488 784 96 8.0 222 59 377 312 1954 1,553 839 102 10.4 229 64 392 329 1956 1,746 951 173 14.5 268 102 419 359 1958 1,738 942 172 16.5 275 107 372 316 1960 1,810 1,024 183 18.6 300 123 405 356 1962 1,812 1,040 188 20.0 309 135 398 352

Source ; FAO Yearbook of Forest Products Statistics, 1963. a The difference between total and industrial wood is fuel wood.

TABLE A.34

WOOD: Exports of hardwood logs from selected African countries by species, 1962 and 1963

Ivory Coast Cameroon Ghana Gabon Congo (Brazza) Nigeria 1963 1963 1962 1963 1963 1962 Percentage of total hardwood log exports sipo 27 azobe 23 obeche 57 okoume 90 limba 59 obeche 69 obeche 26 ilomba 21 sapele 9 ozigo 4 okoume 31 abura 14 mahogany 7 doussie 16 mahogany 8 mahogany 5 makore 7 mahogany 9 sipo 7 sapele 7 sapele 6

Source: ECE, Timber Committee Annual Market Review, Working Paper No. 79, September 1964.

African exports of broadleaved logs increased imports of tropical hardwood logs and sawn woods by more than half a million cubic metres in 1963, as from I January 1964. But the effect of this factor virtually all of the increase going to Europe. Some was likely to be offset by increased ocean freight. African countries- Cameroon and Ivory Coast­ raised their production for export of sawn hard­ wood but the two largest African sawn wood ex­ (f) Metals and fuels porters, Ghana and Nigeria, could not increase (i) Copper their exports, as local mills found it difficult to com­ pete with overseas buyers for roundwood. Largely in response to increasing demand from the expanding electrical industries, world output During 1963 prices of hardwood logs and sawn of copper has increased steadily since 1949 with pieces of almost all species rose sharply as a result only a break in 1958. Production of smelter rose of renewed demand in Europe, difficult logging from 2.9 million metric tons in 1958 to 3.9 million conditions in West Africa, higher costs, higher ocean metric tons in 1963; African output expanded from freights, and increased export duties in some African .68 million metric tons to .94 million tons or by 31 countries. per cent, its share of world total remaining constant Demand for forest products including tropical (see Table A. 35). Zambia is the principal producer hardwoods, was expected to rise in 1964. A number of copper in Africa, followed by Congo (Leopold­ of European countries agreed to abolish tariffs on ville), South Africa, Uganda and Southern Rhodesia.

-24 - TABLE A.35 COPPER: Production in selected Mrican countries, 1958-1963 (thousand metric tons) 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 Smelter World 2,879 3,050 3,650 3,680 3,810 3,900 Africa 680 884 933 941 917 937 Zambia 382 539 568 569 547 576 Congo (Leopoldville) 238 282 283 295 296 271 South Africa 49 50 48 52 46 54 Southern Rhodesia 12 12 15 South West Africa 1 21 Uganda 11 12 15 13 16 16 Refined World Africa 392 540 558 584 580 586 Zambia 245 371 402 416 433 439 Congo (Leopoldville) 131 156 145 151 136 132 South Africa 16 14 11 17 11 15 Source: United Nations Monthly Bulletin of Statistics, August, 1964.

During this period African production of refin­ of unrefined copper increased from 654 thousand ed copper went up by 49 per cent, and its share in to 796 thousand metric tons, i.e. by 22 per cent. world output reached 12.9 per cent. This was due On the other hand, exports from African countries to large increases in the output of copper and the declined from 328 thousand to 293 thousand metric proportion of it refined by Zambia. Nevertheless, tons (see Table A. 36). This loss, however, seems Africa's share in world production of refined copper to have been made up for by much larger African is now about half of that of unrefined copper. export of refined copper, which increased from 379 Because of the economies of integrated mining, thousand to 622 thousand metric tons, or by 64 smelting and refining, only about a fourth of world per cent, while world exports rose from 1,422 exports of copper (by weight) consist of the unrefin­ thousand to 1,976 thousand metric tons or by 39 ed material. Between 1957 and 1961 world exports per cent. TABLE A.36 COPPER: Exports from Africa, 1957-1963 (thousand metric tons) 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 Unrefined World 654 639 673 789 796 Africa 328.4 307.8 334.5 335.0 293.0 Rhodesia & Nyasaland 173.9 148.6 162.8 153.5 149.2 120.9 134.7 Congo (Leo) 115.3 107.6 123.5 123.1 89.1 South Africa 27.2 35.5 31.4 38.3 37.1 Uganda 7.5 11.1 12.0 14.9 13.1 15.7 15.5 Kenya 2.5 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.8 4.1 3.0 Angola 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.9 0.8 Refined World 1422 1493 1560 1910 1976 Africa 379.6 422.0 531.4 590.9 622.3 Rhodesia & Nyasaland 242.4 280.3 361.3 403.3 404.6 424.1 452.7 Congo (Leo) 125.6 132.2 158.3 176.0 204.7 South Africa 11.6 9.4 11.8 11.7 13.0

Source: Commonwealth Economic Committee- A Review of Non-Ferrous Metals, 1963; Federation of Rhodesia and Nyasaland- External Trade, 1959-1963; East Africa Customs and Excise- Annual Trade Report of Kenya, Tanganyika and Uganda, 1957-1963.

-25- TABLE A.37 COPPER : Wholesale prices in selected international markets, 1959-1964

United States

The export of copper contributes about three­ metric tons to 10.3 million over the same period fifths and one-third respectively to the total export (see Table A . 38). Africa's share was, however, earnings of Zambia and Congo (Leopoldville), low, less than 5 per cent in the latter year. Except the former being t he largest exporter of refined for South Africa, the chief producers of iron in copper and the second largest exporter of unrefined Africa are in the Nort h a nd the West. But since copper. the war, there has been a marked increase in the The U.K. and the EEC countries are the largest number of African countries producing t he metal. purchasers of both unrefined and refined copper Moreover, while the older producing countries­ from African countries. In 1963 they took 84 per Aigeria, Morocco and Tunisia- ·have just about cent and 79 per cent respectively. mainta:ined their output, the new producers-Liberia As a result of the policy of stabilization follow­ Guinea, UAR, Angola and Mauritania- have in­ ed by primary producers of the two products, the creased their production considerably. Finally, in­ price of refined copper which had been fluctuating tensified geological surveys and progressive ex­ previously was, in 1963, held at £234 per long ton ploration in recent years may uncover considerable in the U.K. market. But rising demand from about mineral wealth elsewhere in the continent. the end of the year pushed it up considerably in 1964 (see Table A . 37). So far, most of Africa's output has been sold abroad as raw material, and its exports have in­ (ii) Iron ore creased pari passu with production. But the situation World production of iron o re rose from 190 will undoubtedly change with the realizati0u of million metric tons in 1956 to 240 million in 1962. additional plans for the development of irf)n and African production increased faster, from 7.2 million steel industries in the continent.

-- 26- TABLE A.38 IRON ORE: Wholesale prices in selected markets, 1959-1964 Francea Swedenb United Statesc Francs per Kroner per $ per long ton net ton net ton I 11 ANNUAL 1959 17.90 59.5 11.6 7.71 1960 17.73 59.5 11.6 9.13 1961 17.72 59.5 11.6 9.44 1962 17.74 56.0 10.9 9.38 1963 16.52 52.5 10.8 8.24 MONTHLY, 1963 January 17.75 52.5 10.8 8.66 February 17.75 52.5 10.8 8.17 March 17.75 52.5 10.8 8.39 April 17.54 52.5 10.8 8.63 May 17.54 52.5 10.8 8.46 June 17.54 52.5 10.8 8.34 MONTHLY, 1964 January 15.55 52.5 10.8 8.04 February 15.55 52.5 10.7 March I 5.55 52.5 10.7 April 15.55 52.5 10.7 May 15.55 52.5 10.7 June 52.5 10.7 July 15.12 52.5 10.7 7.96 August 15.12 52.5 10.7 September 15.12 52.5 10.7 October 10.7

Source: United Nations Monthly Bulletin of Statistics, August 1964. a France: Domestic export price of marketable ores, ex-eastern mines, in train load lots reduced to 32 per cent Fe basis. b Sweden: Domestic import price, c.i.f. Rotterdam, Swedish ore, 60 per cent Fe. United States: I Domestic export price, delivered lower lake ports, Mesabi Bessener, 51.5 per cent Fe. 11 Unit value of imports from Venezuela, 64 per cent Fe, f.o.b. Venezuela.

TABLE A.39 IRON ORE (Fe content): Prcduction in selected African countries I 956-1962 (thousand metric tons)

1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 World 190,001 205,750 184,718 196,301 237,301 233,894 240,092 Africa 7,191 7,587 7,049 7,654 9,498 9,849 10,322 South Africa 1,331 1,337 1,439 1,870 1,996 2,576 2,816 Liberia 1,483 1,362 1,476 1,928 2,227 2,173 2,696 Sierra Leone 836 856 845 915 967 1,024 1,162 Algeria 1,365 1,474 1,223 1,018 1,817 1,515 1,089 Morocco 956 1,064 869 737 887 828 686 Angola 69 190 231 416 512 473 Tunisia 656 660 615 539 572 487 420 Southern Rhodesia 65 75 85 76 100 245 390 Guinea 433 556 217 215 394 275 356 UAR 66 134 90 125 122 214 234

Source: United Nations Statistical Yearbook, 1963. 3 -27- In spite of a steep rise over the past few years cent over the same period. African production w se in the demand for iron ore from industrialized coun­ from 566 thousand to 1.6 million metric tons. or tries, the world supply of the metal has increased, by 191 per cent (see Table A. 40). Guinea, the chief and its price has tended to fall as a result of increased African producer, raised her output nearly four exports by non-industrialized countries and a high times, while production in Ghana, the next largest rate of production in the USSR and East European producer, though a long way behind Guinea, rose by countries (see Table A. 39). about 40 per cent. The world production of alumi­ nium, primary and secondary, also increased at a (iii) Bauxite and aluminium rate

TABLE A.40

BAUXITE: Production in Africa, 1958-1962 (thousand metric tons)

1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 World 19,380 20,710 24,900 25,870 27,480 Africa 566 455 1,422 1,971 1,665 Guinea 350 301 I ,190 1,767 1,370 Ghanaa 210 150 228 199 291 Mozambique 5 4 5 5 5

Source: United Nations Statistical Yearbook, 1963. a Exports.

About 95 per cent of the bauxit~ mined in the (iv) Petroleum and gas world is used in producing alumina and some 90 per cent of the latter is converted into aluminiu m. World output of petroleum increased by 7 But these operations take place, generally speaking, per cent between 1962 and 1963 to reach 1.325 outside the countries which export bauxite. The million long tons; that in Africa rose by 50 per cent situation is explained by the fact that the manufact­ and amounted to 58 million long tons (see Table ure of aluminium is an integrated process which A. 41 ). Between 1959 and 1963 the rise in world out­ requires abundant and cheap supply of power and put was 7 per cent; that in Africa 50 per cent. The large capital investment. Both these are lacking much larger rate of increase of the latter is accounted in many of the bauxite-p oducing count ies, which fo r by the fact that the continent is in the first stage have been further baffled by tariff barri rs against of development of its petroleum resources. In 1959, the import of aluminium products put up by some Africa's share in world output was about half per aluminium-producing countries. cent, by 1963 it had risen to 4.4 per cent. In Africa. Guinea, which started manufacturing African production is concentrated largely in alumina in 1960, increased her exports to 463 the North and the West, and the UAR, Algeria thousand metric tons in 1961. The exports fell to and Liberia accounting for more than three-fourths 441 thousand metric tons in the following year. of the continent's output. ln recent years, however, Cameroon, which began producing aluminium in Liberia has made the greatest progress, with recent 1957 raised her exports to 52 thousand metric tons discoveries being made in Gabon and Nigerh. in 1962. Ghana expects to start aluminium pro­ duction in 1966, at first from imported alumina. Consumption of petroleum in Africa is very and later, afte r the completion of the Volta project low, the largest fraction of the product being ex­ and the Tema smelter, from domestic material. ported in the crude form. The refining capacity in Africa is, however, developing, and the number of The average price of aluminium dropped in refineries is expected to double to around 26 by 1962 and again in 1963. 1965-66.

-2$ - TABLE A.41

PETROLEUM: Production in Africa, 1959-1963 (thousand metric tons)

1954 1960 1961 1962 1963 World 994,306 1,070,815 1,139,500 1,234,602 1,324,929 Africa 5,947 14,058 23,886 38,498 57,951 Algeria 1,252 8,770 15,911 20,821 24,026 Libya 703 7,978 22,556 United Arab Republic 3,205 3,372 3,880 4,746 5,561 Nigeria 550 863 2,303 3,379 3,831 Gabon 765 813 786 840 903 Angola 52 68 106 478 812 Morocco 97 93 81 129 151 Congo (Brazza) 53 105 125 111 South Africa 26 25 6 Senegal 2

Source: United Nations Statistical Yearbook, 1963 (up to 1962); Petroleum Times (London), June 26, 1964.

In spite of competition among suppliers of of natural gas, started exporting it in liquified form petrol in the international market, the price of petrol in 1964, the scheduled annual delivery being 700,000 has been, generally speaking, maintained at a stable tons. The substantial quantity of natural gas which level by rising world consumption. has been recently discovered in Nigeria is to be Algeria, which is Mrica's largest producer used for domestic supplies.

-29- Chapter B. I.

RECENT DEMOGRAPHIC LEVELS AND TRENDS IN AFRICA

The demographic problems of Africa were The continent of Africa has been divided into highlighted at the Seminar on Population Problems five sub-regions: North, West, Central, South, in Africa organized by the United Nations in Cairo and East. The division is guided mainly by geographic from 29 October to 10 November lS62. 6 The in­ conditions, and may be regarded as tentative. If adequacy of statistics remains the major difficulty Central and Southern Africa are lumped together, in the study of these problems in Africa, although the four sub-regions would each contain roughly the terra incognita has been greatly reduced by cen­ about one-fourth of the total population of Africa. suses and sample surveys undertaken during the The demographic levels and trends are review­ last decade. 7 ed in Section I at the regional level. Section 2 is This article, which incorporates some recent devoted to a discussion of the data at country and data, outlines demographic levels and trends in sub-regional levels and Section 3 deals with conclu­ Africa since the last war. 8 sions and strategy.

1. DEMOGRAPIDC LEVElS AND TRENDS IN THE REGION

(a) Total population As Africa is still mainly agricultural, a more useful measure of the pressure of population on The total population of Africa in 1960 was land is the density per square kilometre of arable estimated at 273 million or 9 per cent of the total land. For Africa this figure is 114 per square kilo­ population of the world, estimated at about 2,990 metre as compared with the world average of 212. million (Table B. 1). With the former growing at The former is lower than in other parts of the world, a higher rate than the latter, the percentage share except Oceania, USSR, and North America. of Africa in world population has been increasing. Relating the rural population only to the arable The upward revision of population estimates in land area, against the world average of 168, Africa different countries of Africa, of which the necessity had 104 persons per square kilometre. This figure was established by recent censuses and surveys, is again higher than the figures for Oceania, North would still further increase the continent's share. America and USSR only, but much lower than those in Latin America and in Asia (328). (b) Density of population (c) Rate of growth of population There were, in 1960, about 9 persons per square kilometre of total area in Africa as compared with The annual rates of growth of population during the world average of 22 (Table B. 2). This is the same 1920-60 in the regions of the world are shown in level as in Northern and Latin America and higher Table B. 3. The rate of growth of population in only than in Oceania. the world as a whole remained at the same level, I per cent per year in the three decades between 1920 and 1950. In the 1950-60 decade, however, there was a sudden spurt in the rate of growth of 1.7 per cent. In Africa the rate of growth was constant at 6 Economic Commission for Africa, Report of the Seminar 1.5 per cent during 1920-50. During the last decade, on Population Problems in Africa, E/CN.14/186. however, it increased steeply to 2.1 per cent, and 7 The position of the African countries in regard to census probably to 2.4 or 2.5 per cent during the latter part taking has been shown in Annex. of the decade, thereby qualifying for inclusion s For comparative analyses of the demographic situations amongst the regions showing high rates of growth. in Asia and Far East and in Latin America, see ECAFE, Out of an estimated annual addition of 60 million Economic Bulletin/or Asia and the Far East, Vol. IX, No. I, June 1959 and ECLA, Economic Bulletin for Latin America, to population in the world, 7 million are being con­ Vol. I, No. 2, October 1961. tributed by Africa.

-30- TABLE B.l

Area and estimated total population of tbe world regions, 192<>-60

Area" Adjusted population Region (Thousand km2) 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 WORLD TOTAL 135,163 1,862 2,070 2,295 2,517 2,990 AFRICA 30,227 143 164 191 222 273 AMERICA 42,041 206 242 274 329 411 Northern 21,499 116 134 144 166 199 Latin America 20,542 90 108 130 163 212 ASIA 26,940 1,023 1,120 1,244 1,381 1,651 East 11,726 553 591 634 684 793 South 15,214 470 529 610 697 858 EUROPE 4,995 327 355 380 392 425 OCEAN lA 8,558 8.5 10.0 11. 1 12.7 15.7 USSR 22,402 155 179 195 180 214 Percentage distribution WORLD TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 AFRICA 22.4 7.7 7.9 8.3 8.8 9.1 AMERICA 3I.l 11.1 11.7 11.9 13.1 13.7 Northern 15.9 6.2 6.5 6.3 6.6 6.7 Latin America 15.2 4.8 5.2 5.7 6.4 7. 1 ASIA 19.9 54.9 54.1 54.2 54.9 55.2 East 8.7 29.7 28.6 27.6 27.2 26.5 South 11.2 25.2 25.6 26.6 27.7 28.7 EUROPE 3.7 17.6 17.1 16.6 15.6 14.2 OCEANIA 6.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 USSR 16.6 8.3 8.6 8.5 7.2 7.2 Source: United Nations, Provisional Report on World Popu/Qlion Prospeels as Assessed in 1963, (ST/SOA/Ser.R/1), 1964, and Demographic Yearbook, 1962. Table B.I .12. • Comprising land areas and inland waters, but excluding uninhabited polar regions and some uninhabited islands.

TABLE B.2

WORLD: Regional estimated density or population, 1960

Persons per km2 of Rural population• per

Region Total area Arable land km2 of arable land WORLD TOTAL 22 212 168 AFRICA 9 114 104 AMERICA 10 125 84 Northern 9 88 51 Latin America 10 206 156 ASIA 61 377 328 Southern 56 272 East 68 645 EUROPE 85 278 181 OCEANIA 2· 56 30 USSR 10 97 67

Source: Table B.[.l. and FAO, Production Yearbook, 1961 and 1962.

• Population in localities with less than 20,000 inhabitants; for the world regions the estimated rural pooulation around 1950 have been taken.

3 * -31 - TABLE 8.3

Rates of growth of population in world regions, 1920-60 (Annual compound rates in percentage)

Region 1920-30 1930-40 1940-50 1950-60 WORLD TOTAL 1.1 l.O 0.9 1.7 AFRICA 1.4 1.5 1.5 2.1 AMERICA 1.6 1.3 1.8 2.2 Northern 1.4 0.7 1.4 1.8• Latin America 1.8 1.9 2.3 2.7 ASIA 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.8 East 0.7 0.7 0.8 1. 5 South 1.2 1.4 1.3 2.1 EUROPE 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.8 OCEANJA 1.6 1.1 1.3 2.1• USSR 1.4 0.9 -0.8 1.7

Source: Table B.I.l. In computing the annual per cent rate of growth of population in the tables, the following formula was used: Pn = Po (l+ r/ IOO)n where r is the annual rate of growth n is the interval (in years) between the two population estimates Po and Pn. ' a Rate reflects combi.ned effects of natural increase and migration.

(d) Age structure of the population tion by young persons in subsistence cultivation, the situation is not desirable. The sex and age distributions of a population are useful indicators of its manpower potential. Again, younger persons, aged 15 to 39, are They also provide crude measures of the dependency more than 70 per cent of the population in most load. consumption needs and social requirements countries in Africa, whereas in developed countries in the present as well as the near future. they constitute 50 to 60 per cent. There is of course some advantage potentially in that with a high The age composition is, on one hand, the pro­ proportion of new entrants, the labour force can duct of past fertility, mortality, and migration trends, be more easily trained and adapted to the changing though the effects of variations in mortality are needs of the economy. comparatively small. On the other hand, the age composition influences, in part, the natural increase A rough measure of the dependency load which of the population. The age data collected from does, however, take productivity into account, censuses and surveys in African countries are known is the ratio of persons in the ages under 15 and in to be inaccurate. Generally speaking, however, 60 years and over to the total number of persons about two out of every five persons in African coun­ aged 15-19. In African countries, there arc about tries are children under 15. This is of the propor­ four persons in the dependent ages for every five tion which obtains in other under-developed persons in the working age group. In developed countries, e.g.. in Asia and Latin America, and is countries, on the other hand, the ratio is about higher than rates of 25 to 30 per cent normally found two to three; in the USA and the USSR the ratios in developed countries, exceptions being the USA, are higher because of the reasons stated earlier . where owing to the post-war spurt in fertility, the proportion of children under the age of 15 has in­ creased and the USSR in which the age structure (e) The urban population has been distorted by the loss of adult manpower The relative growth of urban population is during the last war. an aspect of the spatial distribution of population With constant and high fertility the age pyramid which is. important for plans of economic and social in most African countries has a wide base, but tapers development. In studies on urbanization it is usual off rapidly. This pattern which is typical of pre­ to define localities with 20,000 and more inhabitants industrial economies, involves a proportionately as urban areas and to use the proportion of popula­ bigger investment in, and depreciation of, human tion in such localities to the total population of a capital. The high proportion of population below country as a measure of urbanization. According the age of 15 means a heavy dependency load and to this yardstick, Africa was the least urbanized though this load is reduced through high participa- among the world regions around 1950 (Table B. 4.)

-32- TABLE B.4

Estimated percentage of total population in urban areas in the World region, 1950 (Localities of 20,000 and more inhabitants)

Population in localities of 100,000 and more inhabitants as per­ Percentage of centage of total population population in in localities of localities of 20,000 and more total 20,000 and more Regions inhabitants population inhabitants ------···-·----- WORLD TOTAL 21 13 62 Africa 9 5 51 Asia 13 8 63 North America 42 29 69 Latin America 24 16 66 Europe 35 21 60 Oceania 47 41 87 USSR 31 18 58

Source: Davis, K. and Hertz, H., "The world distribution of urbanization", Bulletin of the In­ ternational Statistical Institute, Vol. 33.

Only 9 per cent of the total population lived in local­ with 100,000 and more inhabitants have increased ities with 20,000 and more inhabitants, as compared three and a half times as fast as the total population to 13 per cent in Asia and 24 per cent in Latin of Africa. At this rate, out of the current increase America. A further measure of urbanization is of 7 million per year in Africa, at least one and a provided by the proportion of persons in localities half million are being added to these big cities. of 100,000 and more persons to the total population. This proportion was 5 per cent in Africa in 1950, A high degree of correlation seems to exist while in Asia it was 8 per cent and in Latin America between industrialization and urbanization.' o With 16 per cent. planned industrial development in the African countries, therefore, urbanization is also expected An indication of the concentration of the popula­ to increase at a fast pace in the initial stages. tion in big cities is obtained by expressing the number of persons in localities of 100,000 and more as a ratio of the total urban population. This proportion (f) Fertility was 51 per cent in Africa as compared with 87 per cent in Oceania and 69 per cent in North America. The estimated birth rate in Africa of 47/1000 Africa is thus, still, at an early stage of transition persons (Table B.l.6) is the highest among the to urbanization; it is nearly at the same level as continents. Asia comes next with a rate of 41/1000 Europe had reached about a century ago (Table B. 5). and Europe had the lowest rate of 19/1000. Birth rates of 40-42/1000 are recorded in East, South The trends in total and urban population in East and South Central Asia and Middle and South localities of 100,000 and more inhabitants in different America, while the rate of 48/1000 is estimated for world regions during 1800-1950 are given in Table South West Africa. B. I. 5. While Africa is still at a low level of urbaniza­ tion, its rate of urbanization, 3.9 per cent during There are few African countries with data the century 1850-1950, was about equalled only over a long enough period for reliable assessment by that in America. But while during the last fifty of fertility trends. Except in cases, however, where years the rate has decreased in America, it has gone variations are explained as the result of famines up in Africa.9 During this half century localities or wars, the fertility level has remained almost con­ stant in recent years. With respect to prospects, since the fertility 9 It has been suggested that cities in under-developed pattern depends on social traditions and customs, countries are growing at rates substantially above those of the developed countries at comparable stages of deve­ lopment. See, e.g., Kingsley Davis, ,The Origin and Growth of Urbanization in the World," American Journal of Socio­ logy, March 1955; and Julia J. Henderson, "Urbaniza­ to United Nations, Seminar on Urban Development Policy tion and the World Community," Annals of American and Planning, Warsaw, 18-29 September 1962, General Academy of Political and Social Science, November 1957. Introductory Report, SEM/URB/POL/WPI.

-33- TABLE B.5

Trends in total and urban population in world regions 1800-1950

World Africa America Asia8 Europeb Oceania In towns In towns In towns In towns In towns In towns with over with over with over with over with over with over Year Total 100,000 Total 100,000 Total 100,000 Total 100,000 Total 100,000 Total 100,000

Number in minions 1800 906 15 90 0.3 25 0.1 597 10 192 5 2 1850 1,171 25 95 0.3 59 0.2 74 1 12 274 13 2 1900 1,608 87 120 1 144 19 915 19 423 47 6 1950 2,517 323 222 11 329 76 1,381 110 572 120 13 5

Index numbers, 1850- 100 1800 77 56 95 120 42 0.7 81 80 70 41 100 1850 lOO 100 100 100 100 lOO 100 100 100 100 100 ...w 1900 137 319 126 560 244 1,033 123 159 154 356 300 100 1950 215 1,292 234 4,080 558 4,144 186 925 209 931 710 392

Annual compound rates of growth, in percentages 1800-1850 0.5 1.1 0.1 -0.04 1.7 4.0 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.8 1850-1900 0.6 2.4 0.5 3.5 1.8 4.8 0.4 0.9 0.8 2.6 2.2 1900-1950 0.9 2.7 1.2 4.1 1.7 2.8 0.8 3.5 0.6 1.9 1.6 2.8 1850.1950 0.8 2.6 0.8 3.9 1.8 3.7 0.6 2.3 0.7 2.3 2.0

Share in percentages 1800 100 2 100 0.3 100 0.5 100 2 100 3 100 1850 100 2 100 0.2 100 3 100 2 100 5 100 1900 100 6 100 100 13 100 2 100 11 100 22 1950 100 13 100 5 lOO 23 100 8 100 21 100 41

Source: United Nations, Seminar on Urban Development Policy and Planning, 1962 Genera/Introductory Report, SEM/URB/POL/WP.l, Table 2 (revised). a Excluding the whole of USSR. b Including the whole of USSR. which do not, generally speaking, change markedly in the USSR, Oceania and North America, the in the short period, it seems unlikely that there will rate for Europe being 11/1000. be a notable change in the next decade or two. Although lack of data makes it very difficult (g) Mortality to establish a mortality trend, improvements in social and economic conditions and medical facilities Compared to other regions, Africa had the are likely to bring it down. But great work has to highest mortality rate of 23 per 1000 persons (Table be done in Africa before the Mrican rate reaches B. 6). The lowest death rates of 8-9/1000 are recorded the level of industrialized countries.

TABLE B.6

Birth and death rates in world regions, 1956-60

Birth Rate Death Rate Rate of Natural Region (per 1000) (per 1000) Increase {per cent) WORLD TOTAL 36 18 1.8 AFRICA 47 23 2.4 AMERICA 34 13 2.1 Northern 25 9 1.6 Middle 42 15 2.7 South 42 19 2.3 ASIA 41 22 1.9 South West 48 22 2.6 South Central 41 24 1.7 South East 41 21 2.0 East 40 20 2.0 EUROPE 19 11 0.8 OCEAN!A 24 9 1.5 USSR 25 8 1.7

Source; Estimates for Africa prepared by ECA Demographic Section; others from United Nations, Demographic Yearbook, 1961.

(h) Natural increase Except for the North Mrican sub-region, data on this aspect of Mrican demography are scanty. Estimated rates of natural increase of popula­ However, a number of Mrican countries undertook tion, measured by the difference between birth and censuses of economically active population in con­ death rates, are also given in Tabe B. 6. Among junction with the 1960 world census programme. the world regions, the highest rate of natural increase The majority of these countries included questions (2.4 per cent per year) is recorded in Africa, and relating to manpower. tl The results of all these the lowest rate of 0.8 per cent is recorded for Europe censuses are not yet available however. (excluding the USSR). Rates of 1.5- 1.7 per cent The estimated crude activity rates in the different obtain in Oceania, North America, USSR and regions of-the world are shown in Table B.7. Varia­ South-Central Asia. In the next decade or two, tions in male activity rates are comparatively small; the rate of population growth in Africa is likely 56.8 per cent of males in Mrica are economically to rise as the joint product of declining mortality active, as against the world average of 58.3 per cent. and constant fertility. On the other hand, the rates for females vary over a very wide range and only 14.5 per cent of Mrican females were reported to be economically active, (i) Participation in economic activity

The economically active population or the It Questions on industrial classification were omitted in 12 labour force of a country is generally defined as out of the 28 recent African censuses, and the questions on industry and occupation in Congo (Leopoldville), based consisting of the employed plus the unemployed presumably on the assumption that in a mainly subsistence actually seeking employment available for the pro­ economy data on occupation would give a good idea of duction of economic goods and services. the industrial structure of the labour force.

-35- as against the world average of 27.2 per cent, though with low proportions of persons in the working because of the reasons stated later the average rates age groups, as in Africa, will show low crude activity for African females are very likely to be under­ rates. But the age-specific rates may be high and estimates. raise the crude activity rate. It is important, there­ fore, to study the age-specific rates. But data on the sex-age activity rates of African population are considerably more scanty, and also TABLE B.7 more unreliable, than those on total rates.l2 Never­ Crude activity rates in world regions theless, it seems from Table B. 8, that the activity (Percentage economically active among population rates, typical of under-developed countries, among of all ages of given sex) the you nger males in ages 10-14 and 15-19 years, and the older age groups (65 and over) are generally higher than the corresponding rates for non-in­ Region Both Sexes Males Females digenous populations in Africa and those obtaining - -- - ~- · - -4·- ·····- - - · World 42.5 58.3 27.2 in Western Europe and North America. While Africa 35.8 56.8 14.5 the activity rates for the male age group 10-14 in North America 39.7 58.2 21.3 industrialized countries seldom exceed 10 per cent. Middle America 35.2 56.6 14.2 it is generally high in Africa. Similarly, for the male South America 35.2 57.3 13.1 age group 15-19 years, the activity rates in Western Asia 42.5 56.4 28.1 Europe and North America are typically between Europe 45. 1 64.1 27.6 50 and 60 per cent while in Africa they are often Oceania 40.1 61.2 18.5 appreciably higher than 60 per cent, rising, in in­ USSR 47.5 54.8 41.4 stances, beyond 90 per cent. Finally, for the male age groups of 65 years and over, activity rates in Source: United Nations, Population Studies No. 33, the Western industrialized countries vary between Table :5.2. 30 and 40 per cent while for roost Mrican popula­ tions they are more than 60 per cent. Males in the The crude activity rate is determined by the middle age groups seem to have activity rates up­ age composition of a population and the activity ward of 90 per cent, which is typical of both develop­ rates in different age groups. Generally, populations ed and under-developed countries.

TABI,E B.8 Age specific activity rates for males in world regions Number Age (in years) Region of 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 an

For the few countries for which data are sex-age groups resulting from factors which bring available and comparable, female activity rates for about social and economic development, viz., spread the middle age groups correspond to rates found of education, introduction of measures inducing in industrialized Western countries. Even if one assumes no substantial change in the sex-age distribution of most African popula­ 12 The unreliability of the sex-age activity rates derives from the unreliability of the age classification as well as from tions, the crude activity rate is likely to be affected differences between countries in the definition of economic by changes in the activity rates of the component activity, and from errors in classification.

- - 36- retirement, the changing role of women, etc. The North Africa and small unrepresentative areas does expansion of education will reduce the activity rates not exceed 48 per cent. In the more advanced coun­ of the younger age groups in 10 to 20 years, irrespect­ tries of Western Europe, the rates vary mostly be­ ive of sex. Similarly, the introduction of measures tween 60 and 70 per cent, while in the United States inducing early retirement, such as the institution of America and the United Kingdom they are above of compulsory retirement benefits etc. (possibly 80 per cent. Even in the less under-developed countries also, higher incomes) will decrease the activity rates of Latin America and South Asia, these rates are of the older age groups, 55 years and over. The generally over 45 per cent. effect of the changing role of women on their eco­ nomic activity cannot be easily predicted since many (ii) Distribution by industry social and religious factors which vary from culture to culture enter into the picture. In western experience The distribution of the labour force by industry there has been a tendency for the activity rates of in African countries, as shown by available data, women to rise. Whether this experience will be is again indicative of economic under-development. repeated in Africa cannot be safely forecast. The The proportion of labour force engaged in agriculture low crude activity rates in North Africa are due in most of them is estimated to be of the order of to the low percentages of women reported to be 70 per cent. Such rates obtain only in the less indus­ economically active, which, in turn, may be due trialized countries of Latin America and South to the Moslem culture prevalent in the sub-region. East Asia. In the more developed countries of Latin On the other hand female activity rates are relatively America the proportion generally varies between high in some predominantly Moslem countries 50 and 60 per cent. In the industrialized countries like Algeria, Morocco, and most of former French of Western Europe and North America, it is almost West Africa, and former French Equatorial Africa. invariably lower than 25 per cent. These contradictory facts indicate how difficult it The proportion of active population engaged is to determine the future course of activity rates in in manufacturing in African countries is extremely Africa without thorough investigations of social low. In fact, although the countries in Africa for and economic factors. On a balance of considera­ which data are available are among the most in­ tions, it seems reasonable to assume that the crude dustrialized, the rate does not surpass 9 rer cent rate in most of Africa will remain fairly stable in except in small unrepresentative areas. In the in­ the near future. dustrialized countries of Western Europe and North America the rates are almost invariably over 25 (j) Economic distribution of the labour force per cent. In most countries of Latin America and in the more industrialized countries of South East Data on the economic classification of the labour Asia they are generally over 10 per cent. A rate of force by industry and status in African countries less than 7 per cent is to be found only in a few are, generally, more defective than thos~ on activity Latin American countries and in the less industrializ­ rates. Hence the conclusions drawn from them ed countries of South East Asia. are tentative. The supply of labour is not a limiting factor for economic development in Africa. As the econo­ (i) Proportion of salaried and wage earners mies grow, labour will shift from agriculture and unskilled occupations to semi-skilled and skilled, The proportion of wage and salary earners providing that adequate facilities for training are among males in the total labour force, except in created.

2. DEMOGRAPHIC LEVELS AND TRENDS IN COUNTRIES AND SUB-REGIONS

In the preceding section, an attempt has been in Table B. 9. The large differences in the size of made to give a broad outline of the demographic the population in the different countries are apparent. situation in Africa as a whole and the possible changes The two most populous countries, viz., Nigeria it may undergo in the future. But conditions vary with 50 million persons and the United Arab Republic so widely between different sub-regions of the con­ with 26 million, account for 18.3 per cent and 9.5 tinent and even within single sub-regions that it is per cent of the total population of Africa. Six other necessary to supplemenc. the overall picture by details countries viz., Ethiopia, Republic of South Africa, about sub-regions and countries. Congo (Leopoldville), Sudan, Morocco and Algeria have populations of lO million or over, each con­ (a) Total population stituting 4 per cent or more of the total population The populations of the individual countries of the continent. These six countries together with within each sub-region in Africa in 1960 are shown Nigeria and Egypt account for 58.9 per cent of the

37- TABLE B.9

Area and estimated total population by countries, 1960

Population Area Mjd - 1960 Percentage distri- Country (Thousand km2) estimates bution (Thousands)

AFRICA TOTAL 30,227 273,035 100.0 North Mrica 8,484 66,11 1 24.2 UAR (Egypt) 1,000 25,952 9.5 Sudan 2,506 11,770 4.3 Morocco 444 11,626 4.3 Algeria 2,382 11,020 4.0 Tunisia 125 4,168 1.5 Libya 1,760 1,351 0.5 Spanish possessions in North Africa 268 224 0.08 Spanish North Africa 0.03 152 0.06 Spanish Sahara 266 23 0.08 lfni 1.5 49 0.02 West M rica 6,165 85.973 31.5 Nigeria 924 50,000• 18.3 Ghana 238 6,777 2 .5 Upper Volta 274 4,340b 1.6 Mali 1,204 4.100 J.5 Ivory Coast 322 3,230 1.2 Senegal 197 3,110 1.1 Guinea 246 3,072 1.1 Niger 1,267 2,823 1.0 Sierra Leone 72 2,450 0.9 Dahomey 116 1,921 b 0.7 Togo 57 1,440 0 .5 Liberia 111 980b 0.4 Mauritania 1,086 694b 0 .3 Portuguese Guinea 36 543b 0.2 Gambia 10 289 0.1 Cape Verde Islands 4.0 199 0.07 St. Helena, including dependencies 0.4 5 0.002 Central Africa 5,414 28,829 10.6 Congo (Leopoldville) 2,345 14,139 5.2 Cameroon 475 4,097 1.5 Rwanda 26 2,671 1.0 Chad 1,284 2.660 1.0 Burundi 28 2,500 0.9 Central African Republic 617 1,210 0.4 Congo (Brazzaville) 342 805 0.3 Gabon 267 440 0.2 Spanish Equatorial Region 28 244 0.09 Sao Tome and Principe 1.0 63 0.02 East Africa 4,992 59,511 21.8 Ethiopia 1,184 20,000 7.3 United Republic of Tanzarua 940 9,548 3.5 Tanganyika 937 9,239 "' .1 Zanzibar and Pemba 2.6 309 0.1 Kenya 583 8,115 3.0

-38 - TABLE B.9. (Cont'd.)

Area and estimated total population by countries, 1960

Population Area Mid -1960 Percentage distri- Country (Thousand km2) estimates bution (Thousands) Uganda 240 6,677 2.4 Mozambique 783 6,482 2.4 Madagascar 596 5,393 2.0 Somalia 638 2,010b 0.7 Mauritius, including dependencies 2.1 658 0.2 Reunion 2.5 336 0.1 Comoro Islands 2.2 183 0.07 French Somaliland 22 67 0.02 Seychelles 0.4 42 0.02 South Africa 5,172 32,611 12.0 Republic of South Africa 1,223 15,822 5.8 Angola 1,247 4,642 1.7 (Southern) Rhodesia 389 3,640 1.3 Malawi (former Nyasaland) 119 3,500 1.3 Zambia (former Northern Rhodesia) 746 3,210 1.2 Basutoland 30 685 0.3 South West Africa 824 522 0.2 Bechuanaland 575 330 0.1 Swaziland 17 260 0.1

Source: United Nations, Demographic Yearbook, 1962; World Population Prospects, Monthly Bulletin of Statistics, February 1965. a Unofficial estimate giving a provisional order of magnitude. The figures for 1952-53 and 1963 show an apparent lack of comparability. b Adjusted in view of new estimates.

total population of Africa. At the other end of the (b) Density of population scale, 29 areas (including off-shore islands) with There are also great variations in the density populations of less than 2. 7 million each, or 1 per of population between the different sub-regions, cent of the total population of Africa, possess to­ and individual countries (Table B. 10), and between gether 9.4 per cent of the total population in Africa. different localities within each country. Among In between these two groups are 18 countries with the different sub-regions, the highest density per populations between 2. 7 to 10 million contributing square kilometre (14) is recorded in the West and 31.9 per cent of the total population. the lowest (5) in the Central region. Excluding small islands and possessions, the density ranges from Excluding the Republic of South Africa, which one or less in Libya, Mauritania, Bechuanaland has 5.8 per cent of the population but accounts and South West Africa to 89 and 103 in Rwanda for about one-fifth of the total national income and Burundi respectively. Except for a few regions in Africa, seven big countries with 53.0 per cent (for example, most of the Nile River areas, some of the total population contribute 44.7 per cent areas in the equatorial highlands, parts of Western of the total national income of Africa. 1 3 Africa and the islands in the Indian Ocean) there does not seem to be much pressure of population on land. Among countries for which data are available, the highest number of rural population per square 13 United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, In­ dustrial growth in Africa, E/CN.l4/INR/1, Rev. 1. kilometre of arable land (879) is recorded in the chapter I. UAR.

39- TABLE B. 10

AFRICA: Estimated density of population, 1960, by sub-region

Persons per Jcm2 of Rural populationa per Country ------Total area------Arable------land km2 of arable land North 8 198 Tunisia 33 85 70 UAR (Egypt) 26 1,046 879 M orocco 26 136 103 Sudan 5 166 159 Algeria 5 156 134 Libya I 39 32 Spanish possessions in Nort h Africa 1 West 14 Nigeria 54 229 203 Cape Verde Islands 49 663 Sierra Leone 34 67 G ambia 28 145 134 Gha na 28 128 11 3 To go 25 67 64 Dahomey 17 Senegal 16 Upper Volta 16 Portuguese Guinea 15 144 Guinea 12 St. Hclena 12 250 Ivory Coast 10 Liberia 9 52 Mali 3 Nigcr 2 Mauritania 1 Central 5 Rwanda 103 Burundi 89 Sao Tome and Principe 66 210 Spanish Equatorial Region 9 177 Cameroon 9 49 46 Congo (LeopoldviDe) 6 29 26 Chad 2 Central African Republic 2 Congo (Brazzaville) 2 Gabon 2 East 12 197 Mauritius, inc. dep. 314 702b 510b Reunion 134 560 308 Zanzibar & Pemba 117 213 172 Seychelles 105 247 Comoro Islands 84 166 Uganda 27 229 228 Ethiopia 17 174 167 Kenya 14 478 450 Tanganyika 10 99 96 Madagascar 9 387 356 Mozambique 8 324 319 Somalia 3 210 French Somaliland 3

- 40 - TABLE B.IO (Cont'd)

Estimated density of population, 1960

Persons per km 2 of Rural population• per Country Total area Arable land 1cm2 of arable land South 6 69 Malawi 29 120 Basutoland 23 182 Swaziland 15 183 Republic of South Africa 13 154 103 Rhodesia 9 198 Angola 4 516 485 Zambia 4 11 9 South West Africa I 348 324 Bechuanaland 1 165 152

Source: United Nations Demographic Year Book, 1962; FAO Production Year Book, 1961, 1962. Table B. I. 5

a Population in localities with less than 20,000 inhabitants. b For Mauritius only, exclu ding dependencies.

Cultural and historical factors, along with Ivory Coast, Morocco, Senegal, Zambia, Southern health hazards and lack of sanitary facilities, have Rhodesia and Togo. generally played an important part in the geographic­ After adjustment has been made for under­ al distribution of African populations. In many enume.ration and varying degrees of coverage, an African countries, relatively high densities obtain increase in the rate of growth of population in recent in areas producing the major crops of the national times seems to be the common feature of all African economy; for example, in Senegal the districts which countries. The rates of growth, however, vary widely. prod uce nearly 80 per cent of the ground-nut crop They were around 3 per cent in Libya, Ghana, Swazi­ and in Ghana the cocoa-growing zone have high land, K enya and Rhodesia, being amongst the highest densities. On the other hand, in some other countries, recorded in the world. In the UAR (Egypt), Sudan, density is very high in the poorer regions and much Algeria. Mali, Sierra Leone, Spanish Equatorial Re­ lower in neighbouring regions with better natural gion, Congo (Leopoldville) the former Ruanda-Urundi, resources. The wide variat ions of density between Uganda, Mozambique, South Africa, South West and within countries presents a problem to be reckon­ Africa, Zambia, and Malawi the rates were between ed with iu the future economic development of the 2 and 3 per cent. Of the eight countries with po­ region. Many African countries are anxious to secure pulations of 10 million o r more, only Ethiopia had a more satisfactory geographic distribution of popu­ a rate officially estimated at less than 2 per cent. lation by opening up new lands and by other measures The main reasons for these variations would for economic and social development J • . seem to be the different rates at which the level of mortality has been falling and the different rates of net migration. (c) Rate of growth of population The rates of growth of population in African (d) Age structure of the population countries for which fairly reliable data are available The data for individual countries have been are shown in Table B. 11 for two periods - the most shown in Table B. 12. The age data in the African recetn and an earlier period. The limitations on countries are known to be, generally speaking in­ the comparison of data obtained from censuses or accumte. For example, the very low proportions of surveys for different years are well-known, the most population under the age of 15 reported in Gambia common being under-enumeration at the previous and G abon are possibly due to this factor. census or survey or in official estimates as in Central African Republic. D ahomey, Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya, Coming to dependency load, in the Sudan, the UAR, Ivory Coast, Dahomey, Ghana and Mauri­ tius, persons in the working age groups have to support about an equal number of dependents. 14 hporr of 1he Seminar on Popu/alion Problems In Africa, In the other countries, the ratio is about fou.r de­ op.cit. paragraphs 35 and 36. pendents to five persons in the working age group.

- 41 - TABLE B.ll

Rates of growth of population (Annual compound rates in percentage)

Previous Recent Country Period Rate Period Rate North Libya 1954-64 3.7 Morocco 1949-51 1.7• 1958-61 2.8• Sudan 1958-61 2.8• Algeria 1948-54 1.6 1954-60 2.6 UAR (Egypt) 1937-47 1.8 1947-60 2.4 Spanish possessions in North Africa 1940-50 0.3b 1950-60 2.0 Tunisia 1936-46 2.3 1946-56 1.9• West Ghana 1948-60 3.2< Cape Verde Islands 1950-60 3.1 Sierra Leone 1958-61 2.7• Ivory Coast 1950-53 3.3• 1958-61 2.2• Mali 1950-52 0.3• 1958-61 2.1 8 Senegal d Upper Vo1ta 950-52 1.4 d Guinea d Dahomey de Nigeria d Gambia 1921-31 0.5 1931-63 1.4 Portuguese Guinea 1950-60 0.4 Sao Tome and Principe 1940-50 0.1 1950-60 0.6 St. Helena 1931-46 1.2 1946-55 0.02 Central Congo (Brazzaville) 1950-52 0.7• 1958-61 3.3•b Congo (Leopoldville) 1958-61 2.4• Spanish E.quatorial Region 1942-50 1.9 1950-60 2.2 Former Ruanda-Urundi 1949-51 1.5• 1958-60 2.1" Gabon 1950-52 0.5• 1958-61 2.7• Central African Republic 1950-52 0.5• 1958-61 1.9• Chad 1949-51 0.2• 1958-61 1.0• Cameroon 1950-52 0.2• 1958-61 0.8• East Reunion 1949-51 2.9• 1954-61 3.4 Mauritius 1944-52 2.3 1952-62 3.1 Kenya 1948-62 3.0f Madagascar 1949-51 1.9• 1958-61 2.8• Uganda 1948-59 2.5 Tanganyika 1948-57 1.8 Ethiopia 1957-62 1.6• Seychelles 1931-47 1.4 1947-60 1.5 Mozambique 1940-50 1.2 1950-60 1.4 Zanzibar and Pemba 1931-48 0.7 1948-58 1.2 Somalia 1958-61 0.8• Comoro Islands 1958-61 0.3• French Somaliland 1958-61 - 0.5• South Rhodesia 1957-62 3.Ja Swaziland 1936-46 1.7 1946-56 3.38 Zambia 1957-62 2.58

- 42 - TABLE B.ll (Cont'd) Rates of growth of population (Annual compound rates in percentage) Previous Recent Country Period Rate Period Rate South Africa 1946-51 2.1 1951-60 2.4 Malawi 1957-62 2.28 South West Africa 1946-51 3.7 1951-60 2.1 Angola 1940-50 1.0 1950-60 1.5 Basutoland 1936-46 0.6 1946-56 1.3 Bechuanaland 1946-56 1.0 1958-61 0.8

Source: United Nations, Demographic Yearbook 1962; and national publications. a Computed from official estimate of population with questionable reliability. b For Spanish North Africa only. c Unofficial estimate, on adj ustment for under-enumeration in 1948 Census, estimated at 10 per cent by the UNTA Expert. Observed rate is 4.1 per cent. d Rate not computed because of apparent Jack of comparability between estimates available. For the rate of natural increase, see Table B.l.l7. e The observed rate of growth between the censuses of 1952/53, and 1963 was 5.7 per cent per year. f OfficiaJ estimate, on adjustment for under-enumeration in 1948 census. Observed rate is 3.4 per cent. g Unofficial estimate on adjustment for under enumeration in the 1956 census, estimated at 8 per cent. Observed rate is 2.5 per cent.

TABLE B.12 Percentage distribution of population in age groups Age (in years) Country Year Under 15 15-59 60 and over AFRICA North Sudan 1956 46.6 49.8 3.5 Morocco 1951-52 40.6 52.5 6.9 1960a 44.7 48.3 6.9 UAR (Egypt) 1947 38.0 55.7 6.3 1960 42.8 51.3 5.9 Tunisia 1956 41.8 52.6 5.6 Algeria 1954 41.0 53.0 5.0 Libya 1954 38.0 52.4 9.5 West Togo 1960 47.0 47.4 5.6 Dahomey 1961 45.0 49.0 6.0 Ivory Coast 1958 44.9 51.1 5.0 Ghana 1960 44.5 50.5 5.0 Niger 1959-60 43.8 51.6 4.6 St. Helena 1956 43.7 46.3 9.9 Mali 1960-61 43.0 51.9 5.1 Senegalb 1960-61 4L6 52.8 5.6 Guinea 1955 4 1.0 54.0 5.0 Upper Volta 1960-61 40.9 53.9 5.2 Nigeria 1952-53 44.3 47.7C 8.0c Cape Verde Islands 1950 34.1 58.9 7.0 Gambia 1951 32.5 59.3 8.3 1959 31.2 59.9 8.9 Gabon 1960-61 29.9 63.8 6.3 Central Rwandad 1957 50.6 40.5 8.9 Burundid 1957 46.6 44.8 8.6 Chad 1960 43.7e 5J.9e 4.4 Congo (Brazzaville) 1960 41.9 44.5c 13.6C

- 43- TABLE B.l2 (Cont'd) Percentage distribution of population in age groups

Age (in years) Country Year Under 15 15-59 60 and over --· Central African Republic 1959 40.0 58.0 2.0 Congo (Leopoldville) 1957 39.4 55.0K 5.6g Cameroon 1957 39.2h 54.2h 6.6 Sao Tome and Principe 1940 24.2 70.3 5.5 East Mauritius, ex. dep. 1962 44.7 50.4 4.9 Reunion 1962 44.7 50.2 5.1 Comoro Islands 1958 43.1 48.8 8.1 Tanganyika 1957 42.4 54.1 3.5 Uganda 1959 41.4 54.8 3.8 M ozambique 1956 40.4 54.5 5.0 Madagascar 1960 39.0 55.7 5.3 Zanzibar and Pemba 1948 33.2 57.4 9.4 1958 35.7 50.5i 13.8i Kenya 1962 5l.Oi 49.0i South Basutoland 1946 37.6 53.5 8.9 Rhodesiab 1956 45.6 47.3 7.0 1953-55 45.2 40.6k 14.2k Swaziland 1956 41.8 49.41 8.8 1 South Mrica 1951 38.1 55.6 6.3 South West Africa 1960 40.1 53.8 6.1 1951 29.2 62.4 8.4 1960 39.6 53.2 7.2 Angola 1950 39. 1 56.0 4.7 Be ehuanaland 1946 36.5 55.7 7.8 ASIA Philippines 1960 45.9 49.8 4.3 Thailand 1960 42.2 53.8 4.3 India 1956-57 41.0 56.2m 2.8m China (Mainland) 1953 35.9 59.7m 4.4m Japan 1960 30.0 6l.l 8.9 LATIN AMERICA Venezuela 1950 41.9 53.5 4.6 Brazil 1950 41.8 53.7 4.5 Mexico 1950 41.7 52.7 5.6 Chile 1952 37.2 56.0 6.8 ECONOMICALLY DEVELOPED COUNTRIES USSR 1959 37.4& 53.2s 9.4 United States 1960 31.1 55.6 13.2 France 1960 25.6 57.1 17.3 United Kingdom 1960 23.2 60.1 16.7 Source: United Nations Demographic Yearbook 1962, and National publications.

a Moslems only, constituting 95.2 per cent of the to tal population. b African (indigenous) population only. c 15-49 years and 50 years and over respectively. d Children, adults and old persons respectively. e Under 18 years and 18-19 years respectively. f Brousse. g 15-54 years and 55 years and over respectively. h Under 20 years and 20-59 years respectively. i 15-45 years and 46 years and over respectively. j Under 16 years and 16 years and over respectively. le 15-44 years and 45 years and over respectively. I Under 12 years, 13-49 years, and 50 years and over respectively. m 15-64 years and 65 years and over respectively.

- 44 - (e) Sex ratio where females out-number males by 26 per cent, could entirely be due to the emigration of males Table B. 13. shows the sex distribution in African to neighbouring areas 1 5. Among the other under­ countries. Among countries each having about 1 developed countries for which data are shown in per cent or more of the total population of the con­ the Table, males outnumber females in China, India tinent, females outnumber males in Guinea, Senegal, and Venezuela. In developed countries, females Nigeria, Rwanda, Burundi, Angola, Tanganyika, are more than males; the very low sex-ratio in the Kenya, Madagascar and Mozambique. On the other USSR is explained by the loss of males during the hand, Tunisia and Libya have the highest propor­ last war. tion of males to females (108). Given a sex-ratio at birth, the sex-ratio of popu­ lation at any point of time is determined by the 15 At the time of the census of 1956, there were 112,790 different mortality and migration of the males and males and 41,992 females away from "home", mostly females. The reported ratio in Africa are also possibly working in South Africa, and some of whom had left home permanently so that the number of temporary absentees affected by sex-selective under-reporting in censuses was rather low. The addition of these figures to the reported and surveys. The very low sex-ratio in Basutoland, population in 1956 would bring up the sex-ratio to 93.4.

TABLE B.l3

Sex-ratio of population (Number of Males per lOO females)

Country Year Total Rural Urban AFRICA North Libya 1954 107.6 1964 108.1 Tunisia 1946 103.6 1956 107.2 Spanish Possessions in North Africa Melilla 1940 113.4 1950 106:1 Ceuta 1940 146.9 1950 104.9 Sudan 1956 102.2 Algeria 1954 101.6 UAR (Egypt) 1947 98.1 96.5 101.8 1960 101.3 99.5 108.4 Morocco 1960 100.1 West Sierra Leone 1947 113.5 St. Helena 1956 103.7 Ghana 1948 102.4 1960 102.2 101.0 106.2 Upper Volta 1960-61 101.8 Portuguese Guinea 1950 98.0 Senegal 1960-61 96.8 95.6 100.6 Nigeria 1931 92.6 92.7 91.3 1952-53 95.7 Togo 1958-60 91.9 92.0 91.3 Guinea 1955 90.8 Central Sao Tome & Principe 1940 164.2 1950 149.6

-45- TABLE B.1 3 (continued)

Country Year Total Rural Urban Spanish Equatorial Region 1942 118.3 11 3.6 233.6 1950 109.3 Rwanda 1957 87.5 Burundi 1957 85.4 East French Soma1iland 1956 11 5.9 Zanzibar & Pemba 1948 110.4 1958 11 1.2 Mauritius 1944 100.5 104.0 92.3 1952 101.0 104.4 95.1 Uganda 1948 100.2 1959 100.9 1962 100.9 Madagascar 1956 98.4 Kenya 1948 98.3 1962 98.1 95.4 142.4 Seychelles 1947 91.5 96.2 80.1 1960 96.0 99.6 86.2 Reunion 1954 94.6 Tanganyika 1957 92.9 Mozambique 1940 90.5 1950 91.7 1960 92.0 Comoro Islands 1958 90.5 South Rhodesia 1961·62 105.9 96. 1 151.9 South Africa 1946 103.5 1951 103.1 South West Africa 1951 101.4 97.6 120.4 1960 101.8 95.2 126.9 BechuanaJand 1946 99.1 Angola 1940 90.3 1950 96.3 Zambia 1950 92.8 Swaziland 1946 94.5 1956 92.6 Basutoland 1946 78.3 1956 73.5 ASIA China (Mainland) 1953 107.7 India 1961 106.3 103.8 118.4 Japan 1960 96.5 95.9• 97.1• Philippines 1960 99.5 101.7b 96.8b. Thailand 1960 99.5 98.8C 107.3° LATIN AMERICA Brazil 1950 99.3 103.9 91.4 Chile 1960 96.2 111.8 87.5d Mexico 1960 99.5 102.7e 89.7e Venezuela 1950 102.8 107.1 99.3 ECONOMICALLY DEVELOPED COUNTRIES France 1960 94.4 94.4f 86.3' United Kingdom 1961 93.7 101.8 11 90.211 United States 1960 97.1 98.8b 92.3b USSR 1959 81.9

Source: United Nations, Demographic Yeatbook, 1962, 1963, and national publications.

• for 1955 b for 1956 c for 1959 d for 1952 e for 1950 'for 1954 11 for 1951 b for 1950

-46 - TABLE B.l4

Sex-ratio of population in localities of different sizes ~ ,.. (Number of males per 100 females)

Localities with number of inhabitants Country Year Under 200- 500- 1000- 2000- 5,000- 10,000- 20,000- 50,000- 100,000 200 499 999 1,999 4,999 9,999 19,999 49,999 99,999 and over AFRICA North Morocco (Northern Zone) 1950 97.0 OAR (Egypt) 1947 119.7 93.3 95.8 94.0 95.4 96.9 99.8 99.0 101.4 103.5 1960 133.3 110.7 98.2 98.2 99.3 100.7 102.8a 103.9b West Ghana 1960 108.8 100.9 97.9 98.5 99.0 98.5 104.5 106.3 114.0 Senegal 1960-61 98.2 95.1 104.3 Mauritania 1961-62 126.7 East Reunion 1954 98.7 96.4 91.5 Mauritius 1952 102.7 102.2 102.7 104.1 108.2 101.8 93.8 90.6 98.0 ""''-1 Zanzibar and Pemba 1958 128.5 116.0 Uganda 1959 100.2 152.0 189.7 South South West Africa 1951 93.4 100.2 126.9 114.0 151.0 116.8 1960 123.1 102.8 102.4 104.9 122.9 124.8 244.2 119.8 Bechuanaland 1946 100.8 101.0 99.3 99.1 98.8 Zambia 1950 131.6 156.9 135.8 ASIA India 1951 --104.1- 105.9 103.5 103.2 103.2 106.2 112.2 113.7 127.0 Japan 1950 96.3 95.9 95.4 95.5 95.2 94.9 98.6 Philippines 1948 104.4 101.6 102.5 105.0 102.5 101.5 99.8 100.2 102.5 102.6 Thailand 1947 118.3 106.2 102.2 100.1 99.3 101.1 LATIN AMERICA Argentina 1947 101.9 97.6 98.0 94.2 96.9 Brazil 1940 102.7 101.5 101.1 99.9 96.8 Chile 1940 93.8 88.3 88.6 83.0 84.0 Venezuela 1950 -107.9- 101.7 100.7 98.9 99.1 102.8 100.6 93.6 99.3

Source: United Nations, Demographic Year-book, 1955, 1962; and national publications.

a For localities of 10,000- 24,999. b For localities of 25,000 - 99,999. The sex-ratios of the population at different of countries with European cultures and traditions; ages have not been shown in the Table. However, the position seems to be generally the reverse in regardless of the over-all sex-ratio in any one country, the African and Asian countries. This difference males tend to outnumber females at younger ages may also reflect the differing roles of women in the and to be outnumbered by them at older ages. This economic life of countries at various stages of econo­ results from the well-known facts that more males mic development. are born than females but proportionately more In Table B. 14. the sex-ratios of the population females survive to older ages than males. for the different sizes of locality are shown for Afri­ Data on the sex-ratio in the urban and rural can countries for which data are available. Of the areas are available only for a limited number of countries with sizable populations, three, namely African countries. Among the countries with a the UAR, Ghana and Uganda, show a tendency sizable population for which such data are available, for an increase in the sex-ratio in the big towns. males are proportionately more in urban areas in This again is a feature common to countries of Asia. Kenya, the UAR, Ghana and South West Africa; in Nigeria, the position is the reverse. Among coun­ tries in Asia listed in the Table, the ratio is higher (f) Ethnic composition in urban areas in all the countries except the Philip­ Data on the ethnic composition of population pines. On the other hand, the sex-ratio is lower are important for understanding economic and social in urban areas in Latin America and economically structures and income distribution. Table B. 15 developed countries. The higher net migration of presents the percentage distribution of the popula­ females to urban centres might be a peculiar feature tion, by ethnic groups, in African countries.

TABLE B.l5

Percentage distribution by ethnic composition of total population

Country Year Indigenous European Mixed Asian Others (African) (White) North Sudan 1956 98.98 0.1 0.1 0.9b Morocco J950C 91.6d 8.4 1960 97.4e 2.3 0.3 Tunisia 1955 93.0f 6.5 0.5 Algeria 1960 88.2e 10.7 l.lb Spanish North Africa Melilla 1960 12.0b 87.8 . 0.2 West Togo1and1 1948 100.0 0.0 G hana 1948 99.9 0.1 0.0 1960 99.8 0.2 Upper Volta 1960-61 99.8 0.2 Portuguese Guinea 1950 98.7 0.4 0.9 0.0 Senegal 1960-61 98.1 1.2 0.2 0.5 0.0 Gambia (former Colony only) 1951 98.0 2.0 Cape Verde Islands 1950 28.4 2.0 69.6 0.0 0.0 Central Rwanda 1958 99.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 Burundi 1958 99.7 0.2 0.0 0.1 Congo (Leopoldville) 1958 99.2 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gabon 1960-61 98.7 1.3 Spanish Equatorial Region 1950 98.0i 2.0 1960 97.1i 2.9 Sao Tome and Principe 1950 91.0 1.9 7.1 0.0 1960 85.6 4.0 10.4 0.0 East Comoro Islands 1958 99.4 0.6 Uganda 1948 99.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 0.0 1959 98.7 0.2 0.0 l.l 0.0 Tanganyika 1957 98.6 0.2 0.0 1.1 0.1

-48 - TABLE B.l5 (Cont'd)

Percentage distribution by ethnic composition of total population Country Year Indigenous European Mixed Asian Others (African) (White) Mozambique 1955 98.1 1.1 0.5 0.3 Madagascar 1962 98.1 0.8 0.4 0.7 Kenya 1962 96.9 0.7 2.4k 0.0 Zanzibar and Pemba 1948 93.8b 0.1 6.0 0.1 1958 93.7 1 0.2 6.1 0.0 French Somaliland 1956 93.1 6.9 Mauritius ex.dep. 1952 66.9rn 29.5n ___ 3.6° 1962 66.7m 29.9n __ 3.4° Seychelles 1947 98.8 1.2 South Easuto1and 1946 99.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1956 99.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 Malawi 1962 99.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 Eechuanaland 1946 98.8 0.8 0.4 0.0 1956 98.7 0.1 0.2 1.0 Zambia 1950..51 97.8 2.0 O.IP 0.1 1962 97.5 2.1 0.3 0.1 d Angola 1950 97.4 1.9 0.7 0.0 Swaziland 1946 97.9 1.7 0.4 1956 96.9 2.5 0.6 0.0 Rhodesia 1956 93.9 5.6 0.JP 0.2 1962 94.1 5.4 0.3 0.2 South West Africa 1951 84.2r 11.7 4.1" 0.0 1960 8l.Y 14.0 4.5• 0.0 South Africa 1946 68.6r 20.8 8.JS 2.5 1951 67.5r 20.9 8.7• 2.9 1960 68.3r 19.3 9.4• 3.0 Source: United Nations, Demographic Year-book 1956 and 1963; national publications. Note: "0.0" indicates less than 0.05 per cent. a Population classified by tribes within the country constitutes 96.6 per cent of the total. b Ethnic composition unknown. c Former Spanish Zone (Northern Zone). d Semite, Berber, Arab, Jewish, and Negro, e Moroccan Moslem, Moroccan Jews, and Algerian residents and refugees. f Tunisian Moslem, Tunisian Jew, and Algerian Moslem. g Moslem. h Jewish and Moslem. i Former British Administration. j Non-white. k Including Arab. I African, Arab (including persons of mixed Arab African descent claiming to be indigenous), Comorian, Somali, and Zanzibari. m Indo-Mauritian. n Includes settlers of European descent and native born of mixed origin. o Chinese. p Generally excludes those living among, and in the manner of, Africans, who are included with Africans. q Presumably includes persons of mixed race. r Bantu. s Persons not of pure European, Bantu or Asian stock, including inter alia Hottentots, Cape Malays, Cape Coloureds, Bushmen, Griquas, Namaquas, Korannas, and St. Helena Islanders.

The non-African population constituted 8 per population was the highest in South Africa and cent or less of the total population in all the countries South West Africa, and that of Asians in South listed (other than the off-shore islands), except South Africa, Kenya, Mauritius and Zanzibar and Pemba. Africa, where this proportion was about 32 per The non-African population is mainly con­ cent, which had also the highest proportion of Europ­ centrated in urban areas, and its participation in eans, about one-fifth. The proportion of the mixed economic activities follows a different pattern from

49- that of the indigenous population I 6. War. Since then an increasing expansion of towns and cities has occurred in West, South and East (g) The urban population Africa. But in North African countries bordering There was relatively little growth in urban on the Mediterranean, centres of trade and civiliza­ centres in Tropical Africa until the Second World tion which had passed through varying periods of growth and decline, experienced a high rate of growth during the recent past. Urban centres have, 16 United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, Eco­ nomic and Social Consequences of Racial Discriminatory also, been in existence for some time in Western Practices, E/CN.l4/l32/Rev.l, 1963. Africa.

TABLE B.l6

AFRICA: Estimated percentage of total population in urban areas, by sub-region (Localities of 20,000 and more inhabitants)

Population in localities Percentage of of 100,000 and more inhabitants total popula· as percentage of tion in loca- population in lities of localities of 20,000 and 20,000 and more total more Countries Year inhabitants population inhabitant.<~ North UAR (Egypt) 1947 29.1 19.3 66.2 1960 16.04 Morocco 1950 17.5 1960 24.2 18.9 79.0 T unisia 1946 19.9 11.3 56.7 1956 18.2 10.8 59.3 Libya 1954 18.3 11.9 65.0 1964 13.6 Algeria 1948 14.1 6.6 46.6 1954 9.9 1960 16.4 Sudan 1955-56 4.5 2.4b 53.3 West Senegal 1956 19.0 10.4 54.7 Ghana 1948 6.0 1960 11.6 10.8 Nigeria 1952-53 11.4 8.9 78. 1 Gambia 1958 7.7 Ivory Coast 1955 6.8 5.1 75.2 Dahomey 1955 5.5 Togo 1958 4.5 G uinea 1960 3.7 Upper Volta 1956 2.3 Mali 1956 1.8 Central Congo (Brazzaville) 1950 15.4 Congo (Leopoldville) 1946 2.2 1.1 48.4 1959 9.1 5.9 65.1 Carneroon 1957-58 6.2 3.7 60.1 Central African Republic 1950C 3.9 Burundi 1960 2.1 Chad 1950C 1.0

-50 - TABLE B.l6 (Cont'd)

Estimated percentage of total population in nrban areas (localities of 20,000 and more inhabitants)

Population in localities Percentage of of 100,000 and more total popula- inhabitants as percentage of tion in loca· population in lities of localities of 20,000 and 20,000 and more total more Countries Year inhabitants population inhabitants ------· East French Somaliland 1963 58.0 Reunion 1954 45.0 Mauritius 1952 24.0 17.4d 1958 27.4 Zanzibar and Pemba 1948 17.1 1958 19.4 Madagascar 1946 3.7 1959 8.0 4.7 59.0 Kenya 1948 3.8 2.2 57.9 1962 5.9 5.2 87.9 Somalia 1962 5.8 Tanganyika 1957 3.3 1.5 44.9 Mozambique 1950 1.6 1960 1.2 Uganda 1959 1.2 Ethiopia 1962 3.8 2.6 68.1 South South Africa 1951 30.7 24.0 78.2 1960 32.9 25.4 77.1 Zambia 1950C 11.3 1960c 16.8 Rhodesia 1951e 22.4 ll.4 50.9 1964 15.2 12.8 83.7 Bechuanaland 1946f 7.8 South West Africa 1951 4.7 1960 6.9b Angola 1950 4.7 3.4 73.1 1955 6.0 4.3 73.3

Source: United Nations Demographic Year-Book, 1955, 1960 and 1962 and national publications; Ministry of Interior and Central Statistical Office, Ethiopia. a For localities with 25,000 and more inhabitants. b The three contiguous municipalities of Khartoum, Khartoum North, and Omdurman taken together. c African population only. d For 1962. e Non-indigenous population and "Africans in employment" only. f Indigenous population only.

Table B. 16 shows the recent data on urban recorded in South Mrica (33 per cent), Zambia, population in African countries. The percentage Senegal (19.0 per cent) and Congo (Brazzaville), of total population living in localities of 20,000 and Rhodesia (15.2 per cent); the percentage in and more inhabitants in North African countries, other countries is about 10 or less. excluding Sudan, varies from 14 per cent in Algeria As a measure of the concentration of the urban to 29 per cent in the United Arab Republic (Egypt). population in big cities, the number of persons in In other sub-regions, excluding small islands and localities of 100,000 and more as a ratio to that territories, the highest degree of urbanization is in the localities of 20,000 and more was 45 per cent

51- (in Tanganyika) and over in the individual African of growth in localities with 100,000 and more in­ countries; the highest concentration, 70 per cent habitants is higher still. and more, was recorded in Morocco, Nigeria, Ivory Coast, South Africa, Kenya, Rhodesia and Angola. The increasing flow of migration from rural zones to cities, the rapid growth of population in The annual rates of growth of population in the capitals and other major urban centres are a urban areas in some countries of Africa for which common feature of the population of African data are available are given in Table B. 17. The countries. Various measures are being taken by rate of growth of urban population is invariably the governments of African countries to check migra­ higher than: that of the total population. The rate tion into urban areas. But both decision making

TAB.LE B.l7 Rates of growth of urban and total population (Annual compound rate in percentage)

Annual rate of growth (per cent)

Localities Localities Total wi th 20,000 with 100,000 Country Period population Urban and more and more North Morocco 1950-60 2.8a 7.8 Algeria 1936-48 1.4 2.1 1948-54 1.6 2.7 10.0 1954-60 2.6 7.1 12.2 OAR (Egypt) 1937-47 1.8 3.5 4.4 5.6 1947-60 2.4 4.1 4.4b 4.7 Tunisia 1936-46 2.3 3.1 1946-56 1.9 3.4 0.7 1.2 Libya 1954-64 3.7 5.1 West Senegal 1955-60 2.6c 10.2 Ghana 1948-60 3.2d 10.2 Gambia 1954-58 1.4e 2.6f Central Congo (Leopoldville) 1947-1955/57 2.4a 5.9 Cameroon 1956-62 0.88 0.4 East Kenya 1948-62 2.9 6.6 9.9 Mauritius 1952-62 2.9d 4.5f 5.7fl Zanzibar and Pemba 1948-58 1.2 4.0 2.5 Mozambique 1940-50 1.2 3.2 Madagascar 1955-58 2.88 6.9h South South West Africa 1946-51 3.7 5.4 5.1 1951-60 2. 1 7.0 South Africa 1946-51 2.1 4.1 2.1 6.3 1951-60 2.4 3.2 1.0 3.1 Angola 1950-60 1.5 5.0 Rhodesia 1956-64 3.3 3.7

Source: United Nations Demographic Yearbook 1960, 1962, 1963 ; and national publications. Footnotes to Table B.l7. a Ofiicial estimate for 1958-61. b For 1947; the figures· for 1957 are estimates and refer to localities with 25,000 and more inhabitants. c Rate of natural increase in 1960-61. d Adjusted for under-enumeration in the 1948 census (Table B.l.ll). e For 1931-63. f For 1944-52. g For 1952-58 (estimated). h Estimated.

--52 -· and effective action are hampered by the lack of "family" plus one or more unrelated persons. For adequate knowledge of the factors that determine many purposes, however, information on households such migration. Here, too, extension of research can be used in place of data on family and some­ is urgently needed. 1 7 times preferably so. The number and size of house­ holds are necessarily affected by the definition of the "household", and the data may not be directly (h) Size of households comparable without adjustment. In Africa, the The ultimate economic and social unit in most grouping of persons in households ranges from African countries is stm the family, or more precisely, the simple nuclear family of the Western type to the household. A study of the size of the household the "collectives" and "concessions" supporting a and the distribution of households among the diffe­ number of separate families; the system of polygamy rent economic and social classes should, therefore, and the laws of descent introduce further complica­ be of importance. A household is not always equi· tions.' s Complications also arise, as in Zambia, valent to a family because a private household may because of the custom of "chilimba." or sharing contain more than one "family'' of persons related of wages by single men sharing the same quarters by blood or marriage, or may be composed of a

IS R. Blanc: Manuel de recherche demographique en pays 17 Report of the Seminar on Population Problems in A/ril:a sous-deve/oppes, Ministere de la coopt!ration et JNSEB. op.dt., paragraph 16. Service de cooperation, Paris 1%2.

TABLE B.18

Average size of private household and its distribution in size groups

Percentage distribution of households in households with size Average · size of Year one 1-3 4-6 7-9 10 and over household ------... ~ AFRICA In Percentages Nortb Libya 1954 7.1 37.9 44.0 14.8 3.3 4.5 1964 4.7 UAR (Egypt) 1947 7.0 36.6 43.1 15.8 4.5 4.7 1957 7.2 33.5 42.7 17.7 5.4 4.8 1960 7.8 34.0 41.4 19.9 5.6 5.0 Sudan 1956 5.3 33.3 42.7 18.2 5.8 5.0 West Portuguese Guinea 1950 5.9 26.3 33.2 17.1 23.4 7.8 Cape Verde Islands 1950 9.4 45.3 38.2 13.6 2.9 4.2 Niger 1959-60 48.0 34.8 11.8 3.6 4.4 East Mauritius 1952 27.8 67.3 26.6 5.5 0.6 3.0 Seychelles . 1960 16.7 53.5 29.9 12.4 4.2 4.0 Zanzibar and Pemba 1958 3.1 Soutb Basutoland 1956 11.1 46.0 38.0 12.1 3.9 4.0 ASIA India 1955-56 9.2 33.4 43.1 17.9 5.6 4.9 Japan 1950 5.4 30.5 44.3 21.1 4.1 5.0 Philippines 1948 2.3 24.3 43.0 25.4 7.3 5.4 LATIN AMERICA Venezuela 1950 7.0 30.7 38.1 21.8 9.4 5.3 ECONOMICALLY DEVELOPED COUNTRIES France 1946 18.6 67.1 28.0 4.2 0.7 3.1 United Kingdom 1950 16.7 63.1 33.2 3.3 0.4 3.2 USA. 1950 9.3 60.7 34.1 4.9 0.9 3.3

Source: United Nation.~. Demographic Yearbook, 19SS; 1962; and national publications.

-53- so that the population living outside of the family accurate data on deaths than on births and it is also units could not be regarded as comprising single more difficult to estimate death rates from census member households.'9 data than birth rates. Mortality estimates for African Information on the household and its structure countries are, therefore, much less satisfactory than is, however, limited only to a few African countries fertility estimates. Infant mortality rates are, more­ and that, too, to the average size and the distribu­ over, subject to proportionately greater error than tion according to the size (Table R 18). In the UAR crude death rates, since deaths of infants are more (Egypt) there is an apparent tendency for the average likely to escape reporting. size of the household to increase; it is not possible In this section, only those rates of fertility and to say at present whether this is significant. especially mortality have been discussed which can be taken in view of the fact that the size of the household was to be fairly reliable. 2 1 Apart from the off-shore 5.0 in the census of 1937, and also in 1960. In Sudan small islands, only in Tunisia (for births only) and and Niger, two other countries with sizable popula­ the Republic of South Africa (for the non-Bantu tions for which data are available, the ~ize is 5 and population) the rates are obtained from registration 4.4 respectively. In other territories the size ranges statistics shown in Table B. 22; the bulk of other from 3.0 in Seychelles to 7.8 in Portuguese Guinea. rates are from demographic sample surveys. The countries in Asia and Latin America listed in the Table have sizes of about 5, as compared (j) Level of fertility in Africa with the size of slightly more than 3 in developed The crude birth rates, defined as the number countries. Subject to differences in definitions, fertility of births in one year per 1000 mid-year population, and mobility are the determining factors for the are shown in Table B. 19. for the countries of the size of household. Although the proportions of continent, range from 25 (South African Whites) households with a single member were roughly to 62 in Guinea and Mali. Of the 45 birth rates listed. of the same order in Libya, the U AR. Cape Verde 37 lie between the limits of 40 and 59. Ivory Coast, Islands, Basutoland, India, Venezuela, the United Mali, Nig:ria, Niger, Togo, Zambia (indigenous Kingdom and the USA (7 to 10 per cent), it should population) have birth rates between 55 and 59 be noted that, in the latter two countries, the pro­ per thousand; the model group is, however, 45 - 49. portion of smaller sized households (of size l - 3) The sub-regions are generally comparable in was greater than in the other countries. regard to birth rates although there are countries where the rates do not confirm to those of the other (i) Fertility and morlality countries in the same sub-region. This is true of The sources of data and the basis of estimation Sudan in North Africa, with a rate of 52 whereas can be classified under four categories, arranged the rates of the other countries of this region (exclud­ in decreasing order of relative reliability, viz. (A) ing Spanish Sahara) vary between 43 and 46. "Complete" registration, (B) Sample Survey, (C) In West Africa the rates are generally high, varying "Reverse-survival" estimates, and (D) other esti­ between 50 and 62, except in Mauritania (34), Senegal mates. The third category may again be sub-divided (43), Cape Verde lslands (45). The weighted average into two sub-categories, according to whether the rates of birth and gross reproduction22 rate are data are relatively reliable or unreliable. Over most given in Table B. 20. for the five sub-regions. parts of Africa registration of vital events is either All sub-regions, except West Africa, have more non-existent or defective while the reliability of or less the same level of fertility. This seems to be the rates. derived from the "reverse-survival esti­ confirmed by the levels of the gross reproduction mates", depends on the validity of the assumptions rate, and the general fertility rate2 J shown in Tables involved. Sample surveys are now being increasingly used to provide directly the basic vital statistics 21 The levels and trends of fertility in the different world regions have been studied in a forthcoming world survey by the method of retrospective enquiries; but cau­ of fertility by the Population Branch of the United Nations tion must be exercised to adjust for non-sampling (to be published as Popul!ttion Bulletin No. 7. ("Condi­ errors and biases in all processes of data collection, tions and Trends of Fertility in the World") from which whether on a sample or . complete enumeration the bulk of the material in Tables B.l.9. and 17 has been taken: "The Situation and Recent Trends of Mortality basis.2o Sample surveys are likely to provide less in the World" , published as Population Bulletin No. 6, St./SOA/Ser. No. 6, 1962, may also be consulted. 19 Communication from the Director, Central Statistical 22 Gross Reproduction Rate is defined as the number of Office, former Rhodesia and Nyasaland. daughters that would be born to a generation of women 20 Problems of African Demography, A Colloquium, Paris having, at each age in the potential child·bearing period 20-27 August 1959, Union intemationale pour l'etude of their lives, the age·specific female birth rates observed scientifique de la population, Paris, 1960; United Nations for a given population at a given time, on the limit of her Economic Commission for Africa, Methods and Problems potentially fertile years. It can be calculated by summing of Civil Registration and Vital Statistics Collection in up the female birth rates for women at each individual Africa ,Third Conference of African Sta.tisticians, Addis age throughout the reproductive span. Ababa 1963, E/CN.I4/CAS.3/8 and Technical Paper on Non­ 23 General Fertility Rate is defined as the ratio of the number Sampling Errors and Biases in Retrospective Demographic of . births in one year to the total female population of Enquiries, Seminar on Vital Statistics, Addis Ababa, 1964, child-bearing age (usually taken as those between 1S to E/CN.14/CAS.4/VS/3. 49 years) and generally expressed per 1,000 such females.

-54- TABLE B.l9

Crude birth rates, general fertility rates and gross reproduction rates

General Crude Fertility Birth rate Rate (per 1000 Gross Type (per 1000 women aged Reproduction Country Code Year persons) 15-49 years) Rate ---~------~------~----

North

Algeria (Moslems) C(2) 1944-49 45 188 3.0a Libya C(2) 1944-49 43 186 3.4a Morocco B 1962 46 3.4 Sudan B 1955 52 234 3.0-3.5b Tunisia A 1961 43 192 3.1 a UAR (Egypt) C(l) 1942-47 43 176 2.8b Spanish North Africa A 1960 23 74c

West Dahomey B 1961 55 227d 2.9 Ghana C(2) 1950-55 51 211 3.0e Guinea B 1955 62 228f 3.5 Ivory Coasts B 1957-58 55 215 3.0h Malii B 1960 62 200 3.5 Nigeri B 1959-60 50-55 200 3.5 Nigeriak D 1952-53 55 3.7 Senegal B 1960-61 43 182 1 2.8 To go B 1961 55 225m 3.3e Upper Voltad B 1960-61 49 197 3.1 Cape Verde Islands A 1960 45 100° Mauritania D 1957 34

Central Cameroon° B 1960-62 40 152f 2.3 Congo (Brazzaville) B 1960 42 180 2.8P Congo (Leopoldville) B 1955-57 43 156 2.4 Gabonq B 1960-61 36 120 2.1 Central African Republic• B 1959-60 48 157 2.4 Rwanda B 1957 52 220 3.3t Burundi B 1957 47 174 2.6t Sao Tome and Principe A 1960 45 J40U Chad D 1959-60 48

East Kenya (Africans )v D 1948 50 3.2 Madagascar C(2) 1950-55 45 163 2.4W Mauritius A 1960 40 180 2.8 Mozambique C(2) 1945-50 47 166 2.6P Tanganyika (Africans) D 1957 46 175 2.8 Reunion A 1960 44 155 3.1 Zanzibar D 1958 32 1.9 Pemba D 1958 45 2.4 Uganda B 1959 42 187

-55- TABLE B.I9 (Cont'd)

Crude birth rates, general fertility rates and gross reproduction rates

General Fertility Crude Rate(per 1000 Gross Type Birth rate women aged Reproduction Country Code Year (per 1000 persons) 15-49 years) Rate

South Angola C(2) 1940-45 49 178 2.7P Basutoland B 1955-56 40 2.4 Zambia (Africans) B 1950 57 181 3.5" Rhodesia (Africans) B 1953-55 45 207 3.P

South Africa Bantu C(l) 1941-46 42 183 2.8" Coloured A 1958 46 199 3.0 White A 1958 25 103 1.7 Asian A 1958 30 123 1.8

Sources: United Nations, Demographic, Yearbook, 1962. Compendium of Social Statistics 1963; Population Bulletin No. 7 (inpress) I.N.S.E.E., Donnees statistiques, Janvier-Mars, 1964. Perspective de population dans les pays africains et malgache d'expressiou /ran<;aise, 1963; national publications.

Type Code A Complete registration statistics. B Sample Survey data. C(l) "Reverse-Survival" estimates, relatively reliable data. C(2) "Reverse-Survival" estimates, data of low or uncertain reliability. D Other estimates. a In calculating the gross· reproduction rates, the pattern by age of mother was assumed to be same as that for Egyptian localities having health bureaux. · b Detailed age grouping needed for calculation of the gross reproduction rate are not available. The given range of the GRR was estimated by comparing the distribution of the Sudanese population in broad age groups with those of model stable populations. c 1950 and computed on female population aged 15-54 years. d Unpublished rate supplied by INSEE (France). It presumably relates to females aged 14-49 years. e In calculating the GRR the pattern of fertility by age of mother was assumed to be the same as that of Guinea. f The official published results of the sample survey give a general fertility rate which differs from the one shown here; in that it relates to population aged 14-49 years of age, the rate given here is an estimate for the 15-59 age group. g Data are derived from surveys carried out in different areas of the country during 1955-58. For example a. survey of the sub-division of Bongouanou in 1955-56 gave a crude birth rate ·or SS and a GRR of 2.8. In the first agricultural sector, the corres­ ponding rates were 59 and 3.7. For the country as a whole the crude birth rate is given as 55, and 56 for 1961. h In calculation the GRR, the pattern of fertility by age of mother reported for Bongouanou was assumed to apply to the country as a whole. , Data are derived from surveys carried out in different areas of the country in 1960-61. For example the surveys of Haute Vallee, Sikasso and Koutiala gave crude birth rates of 53, 58 and 52 respectively, and gross reproduction·rates of 3.4, 3.1 and 3.2. For the country as a whole; the crude birth rate is given as 56. j Provisional results from a 1959-60 survey of the sedentary population. k Estimated by comparing the census age distribution with those of model stable populations. I Data relate to the Middle Valley of Senegal, a zone with a population of about 340,000 persons. The area surveyed Lies partly in Senegal and partly in Mauritania. m For 1955-58. n For 1950. o Data are for five provinces of North Carneroon. p In calculating the GRR, the pattern of fertility by age of mother was estimated from census or survey data oo the number of children ever born. q Unpublished rate supplied by INSEE (France). r Data relate to Central and West Oubangui, which together represent 90 per cent of total population. s In calculating the GRR, the pattern of fertility by age of mother reported for Central Bangui was assumed to apply to West Bangui also. In calculating the GRR, the pattern of fertility by age of mother was assumed to be the same as that of Upper Volta. u For 1958. v Estimates by J.G .C. Blacker, "The Demography of East Africa," in the Natural Resources of&st Africa. The estimates are based on the mean number of children ever born to women aged 16-45 years, adj usted with regard to the age distribution of the women and the pattern of age specific fertility. w In calculating the GRR, the pattern of fertility by age of mother was assumed to be the same as that of Mauritius. x In calculating the GRR, the pattern of fertility by age of mother was assumed to be the same as that of Angola.

- S6- TABLE B.20 Birth rate, gross reproduction rate, death rate and life expectancy at birth in the African sub-regions

Fertility Rate (1956- 60) Mortality Rate (1956- 60) Rate of natural Gross Life increase Birth Rate Reproduction Death Rate Expectancy at (Per cent Sub-Region per 1000 Rate• per 1000 birth (years )• per year) AFRICA 47 3.1 23 41 2.4 North 46 3.1 20 44 2.6 West 52 3.5 29 35 2.3 Central 44 2.9 22 42 2.2 Southern 42 2.7 18 47 2.4 East 46 3.0 22 42 2.4

Source: ECA, Demographic Section. a Obtained on the basis of stable population assumptions by double interpolation in Table 21 of the Future Growth of World Population, United Nations, ST/SOA/Series A/28, 1958

TABLE B.21 Fertility rates (per 1000) by age of mother

Age of mother (in year) Country Year 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 AFRICA Gabon• 1960-61 127 178 160 127 91 41 18 Mauritania a tl957 151 211 190 151 108 48 20 Central African Republic• 1959 Cameroon• 1960-62 157 221 199 157 113 51 22 Congo (Brazzaville)• 1960 161 226 203 161 116 52 23 Senegal• (1960 Chad• 1959-60 181 254 229 181 130 58 25 Madagascar• ~ 1957-61 Upper Volta• I 1960-61 191 268 242 191 138 62 27 Ivory Coast• 1957-58 208 293 264 208 149 67 29 Togo• 211 297 268 211 151 68 30 Dahomey• r611961 Mali• 1960-61 215 302 273 215 154 69 30 Niger• 1959-60 Guinea• 1955 218 307 277 218 157 70 31 Congo (Leopoldville) 1955-57 136 265 232 168 -80- 16b Reunion 1961 67 250 321 295 224 108 11 Tanganyika 1957 102 193 172 128 107 81 23 Mauritius 1961 Ill 281 279 217 155 56 7 Ugandad 1957 125 248 225 189 134 59 34 ASIA Ceylon 1955 64 260 304 205 149 32 7 lndiac 1957-58 144 264 244 188 128 50 18 Japan 1957 4 99 170 90 36 8 I ECONOMICALLY DEVELOPED COUNTRIES England and Wales 1957 30 153 157 91 46 12 USA 1957 95 255 198 117 60 16

Source: United Nations, Demographic Yearbook 1959, 1961, 1962; INSEE, Perspective de population dans les pays Africains et Mal­ gache d'expression franr;aise, 1963, national publications. a Adjusted rates by INSEE. b 45-54 years. c Rural population. d African population.

-57- B. 19. and B. 20. For Africa as a whole, the average low a nd that birth control is not commonly practis­ birth rate is estimated at 47/ 1000 and the gross ed. In the African countries for which data are avail­ reproduction rate at 3.1. able, more than one-third of the women between 15 and 19 years of age are "ever-married " (i.e., married at least once, whether or not currently still (i) FertDity by age of the mother married, widowed, divorced or separated), the maxi­ T he slope of the curve of general fertility (i.e., mum of 81 per cent being recorded in Guinea, where­ number of children born annually to the total female as the proportion to ever-married is 3.4 and 16 per population in any age-group) is affected by nuptiality, cent respectively in France, England and Wales, and which also determines the position of the maximum. the U.S.A. (Table B. 22). Universality of marriage, This occurs between ages 20 and 24 in most of the youthful marriages and absence of voluntary birth countries considered (Table B. 21). T he high fertility control are the main factors affecting fertility in rate for 15-1 9 age group which sometimes exceeds Africa. 200 per thousand in some African countries may be noted in this Table in contrast to about 30 per (ii) Rural and urban fertility thousand in England and Wales and 95 per thousand Except in the Congo (Leopoldville), the general in the USA. This is due to the fact that the age at fe rtility rate is, in general, higher in ru ral areas than marriage in African countries is, in general, very urban agglomerations (Table 8.23). though this is not

TABLE B.22 Percentage of ever-married females by age groups Age (in years) Country Year 15-19 20-24 25 and over AFRICA Guinea 1955 82.3 98.2 99.7 Dahomey• 196 1 66.7 96.3 99.5 Senegal a 1960-61 62.8 90.1 99.2 Morocco 1960 56.5 92.5 97.9 Togo 1958-60 53. 1 94.9 99.3 Central African Republic• b 1959-60 47.7 96.8 99.4 Congo (Leopoldville) 1955-57 46.4 90. 1 98.7 Tunisiac 1956 41.5 78.7 95.8 Libya 1954 35.3 83.4 97.2 U.A.R. (Egypt) 1960 34.0d 77.1 97.4 Algeriac 1948 33.3 77.0 95.4 OTHER REGIONS India 1961 70.8 94.0 99. 1 Venezuela 1961 22.7 58.2 74.0 U.S.A. 1960 16.1 71.6 92.4 Thailand 1960 13.9 61.4 94.2 England and Wales 1951 4.4 48.2 84.8 France 1962 3.3 44.3 88.7

Source: United Nations, Demographic Yearbook, 1958, 1962, 1963; National publications. a Indigenous (African) population. b For Centre Oubangui; 14-1 9 years, 20-29 years and 30 years and over respectively. c Moslem population. d For 16-19 years.

always borne out by the crude birth rates. Out of the other hand, the general fertility rate was higher seven countries examined, four have, more or less, in the urban areas of Congo (Leopoldville) only, the same birth rates in urban and rural areas, two out of the five cases. It may be conjuctured on the show high rates in rural areas and one a higher whole that fertility in Africa is lower in urban than rate in urban areas. In Congo (Leopoldville , on in rural areas in keeping with the situations in other

- 58 - TABLE 8.23

Birth and death rates in urban and rural areas of selected African countries

Urban Rates of Rural Rates of ---"····· ----- Country Year Birth• Fertilityb Death a Infante Birth• Fertilityb Death a Infante Mortality Mortality -·--·- -- ···---- Morocco 1962 47 15 46 20 Congo (Leopoldville) 1955-57 52 224 9 66 41 158 23 113 Guinea 1955 52 l86d 29 189 63 226d 41 218 Mali (Niger Valley) 1957 52 I85d 31 246 54 205 47 320 Central African Republic 1959-60 48 ll4d 26• 197" 48 120d 26• 188" Senegal 1960-6J 44 175d 10 36 43 184d 19 109 Dahomey 1961 48 12 54 27

Source: National publications.

a Per 1000 persons. b Per 1000 women aged 15-49 years. c Per 1000 live births. d Per 1000 women aged 14-49 years. e Unadjusted.

TABLE 8.24

Fertility rate (per 1000 women) in monogamous and polygamous unions Monogamous Polygamous Country unions unions ----"··--··· ------·-·--· --- - . .. ·----·- Congo (Leopoldville) (1955-57) 211 141 Guinea (1955) 274 246• ; 222b

Source: Tableau general de la demographie congolaise, 1955-57; Etude dbnographique par sondage en Guinee, 1954-1955. a Cases in which the polygamist had two wives. b Cases in whlch the polygamist had three wives.

parts of the worfd24), Exceptions other than those the data for two countries • Congo (Leopoldville) in Table B. 23. are reported from the UAR and and Guinea. The figures in Table B. 24 suggest, Gabon. firstly, that monogamous unions are more fertile than polygamous, and secondly that fertility seems (iii) Fertility in monogamous and polygamous to decline as the number of wives rises. Polygamous unions households include, of course, a very high proportion That polygamy exercises some influence on of older women, but the example of the Congo fertility is suggested by a preliminary analysis of (Leopoldville) shows that in all age groups mono­ gamous unions are more fertile than polygamous 24 See United Nations, The Determinants and Consequences (Table B. 25). The possible reasons for this are the of Populatio11 Trends, (ST/SOA/Ser.A/17) 1963, paragraphs contract of polygamous marriages as a hereditary 88-90; Human Resources of Central America, Panama custom without cohabitation, the possible lower and Mexico 1950-1958, STtTAO/K/LAT/ 1, 1960; para­ frequency of cohabitation, and perhaps also the graphs 23-29; The Mysore Population Study, (ST/SOA/ Ser.A/34) 1961 , page 83; Government of India, Preliminary infertility of a previous wife leading to polygamy. Estimates ofBirth and Death RatI!.~ and of the Rote of Growth (k) Levels of general mortality in Africa of Population. National Sample Survey No. 48 (1961), Appendix 3. According to the figures in Table B. 26, the

5 -59 - crude death rate, defined as the number of deaths group being 20-24 per thousand. Among the sub-re­ in one year per lOO mid-year population, varies gions, West Africa has the highest mortality level between 8-9 among South African, Asians, and Whites and Southern Africa the lowest. and in Spanish North Africa and 40 per thousand The average death rates and the life expectancies in G uinea; out of the 39 death rates listed in the at birth are given in Table B. 20 for the five sub­ Table, 30 lie between 15-34 per thousand, the model regions.

TABLE B.25 Fertility rate (per 1000 women) in monogamous and polygamous unions

Congo (Leopoldville) 1955-57 Age Monogamous Polygamous (in years) unions unions 15-19 267 205 20-24 289 249 25-29 255 206 30-34 194 144 35-44 101 72 45-54 24 19 Source: Tableau gbrera/ de lo demographie congola/se, l 9SS-S1 page SO.

TABLE B.26 Crude death rteas, infant mortality rates and rates of natural increase Infant Rate of Crude death mortality natural Type Rate (per Rate (per 1000 increase (per Country Code Year 1000 persons) live births) cent per year) North Morocco B 1962 19 149 2.7 Sudan B 1955 24a 186a 2.8a Tunisia A 1961 11 3.2 UAR (Egypt) D 1956 '21b 178° 2.2d Spanish North Mrica A 1960 8 46 1.5 West Dahomey B 1961 26 liO 2.8 Ghana D 1960 26c Il3f 3.0f G uinea B 1955 40 220 2.2 Ivory Coast B 1961 33 1388 2.3 Mali B 1960 29 250 3.1 Niger B 1959-60 27 2.3-3.2 Senegal B 1960.61 17 93 2.7 Togo B 1961 29 121 2.6 Upper Volta B 1960-61 30 174 1.9 Cape Verde Islands A 1960 16 95c 2.9 Mauritania D 1957 26 0.8 Central Cameroonh B 1960-62 27 180 1.3 Congo (Brazzaville) B 1960 27 200 1.5 Congo (Leopoldville) B 1955-57 20 104 2.3 Gabon B 1960-61 30 129 0.6 Central African Republic B 1959-60 30 200 1.8 Rwandai B 1957 14 137i 3.8 Burundil B 1957 17 121l 3.0 Sao Tome an Principe A 1960 20 140it 2.5 Chad D 1959-60 28 2.0

- 60 - TABLE B.26 (Cont'd)

Crude death rates, infant mortality rates and rates of natural increase

Infant Rate of Crude death mortality natural Type Rate (per Rate (per 1000 increase (per Country Code Year 1000 persons) live births) cent per year) East Kenya (Mricans)l D 1948 20 3.0 Madagascar B 1957-61 19 Mauritius A 1961 10 62 3.0 Tanganyika (Africans) D 1957 24-25 190 2.2 Reunion A 1960 12 3.3 Zanzibar D 1958 21 157 1.1 Pemba D 1958 23 171 2.2 Uganda B 1959 20 160 2.2 South Basutoland B 1955-56 23 181 1.7 Zambia (Mricans) B 1950 32 259 2.5 Rhodesia (Africans) B 1953-55 14 122 3.0 South Mrica Coloured A 1960 16 126 3.0m White A 1960 9 29 J.6m Asian A 1960 8 50 2.2m

Source: United Nations Demographic Yearbook 1962, Compendium of Social Statistics, 1963; I.N.S.E.E., Perspective de population dans les pays africains et malgache d'expression frall(;aise, 1963; I.N.S.E.E., Donnees statistiques, janvier-mars 1964; National publications. Type code A Complete registration statistics. B Sample survey data. D Other estimates. a Revised. b Revised rate adjusted for under-registration. c For 1959. d For 1955-57. c Life table death rate from official population projection. f Rates are for a compulsory registration area of 36 towns and townships, are not representative of Ghana. g For 1957. h Data are for five provinces of North Cameroon. For indigenous population. j For 1952. k For 1958. I Estimates by J.G.C. Blacker "The Demography of East Africa", in the Natural Resources of East Africa. m For 1958-60.

(i) Mortality by age same ycar)2 5 and is an important indicator of the living and health standards of a country. Of As almost everywhere, death rates are highest the 33 infant mortality rates listed in Table B.29, for infants and the aged. In Mrica, however, the twenty-six lie between 75 and 200. The rates beyond crude death rate is affected most by the deaths of these limits are for Zambia (Mricans) (259), Mali the newly-born whereas in the industrialized coun­ (250), Guinea (220), with rates above 200 and Mau­ tries it is the death of the aged person that has the ritius (62), South Mrican Asians (50), Spanish Sahara greatest effect on the rate (Table B.27). This is be­ (46), and South Mrican Whites (29), with rates below cause Mrican countries, unlike industrialized coun­ 75. In comparison with industrialized countries, tries, have, owing to high fertility, high concentra­ infant mortality is still very high in Mrica. Improved tions of population in the young ages. social and environmental conditions in Africa are therefore likely to contribute to the lowering of the mortality rate. The crude death rate would de­ cline even further if mothers took benefit from these (ii) Infant mortality rate improvements. Infant mortality rate is defined as the number 2:5 This is the rate generally used for facility of calculation of deaths to children under one year per 1000 live and does not purport to give the probability of dying with­ births (the two events being observed during the in one year of birth to a cohort of births.

61- TABLE B.27

Mortality rates by age and sex (per 1000)

Age (in years) Country (and year) Sex -1 1-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-2~

AFRICA

North UAR (Egypt) M 219.2 52.3 5.9 5.0 5.2 7.1 8.6 (1947) F 197.3 47.2 4.7 3.5 3.5 4.1 5.5

West Guinea M 279 56 14 12 25 23 20 (1955) F 227 48 12 20 21 16 22 Senegal M 232 51 14x 9 X 12 (1957) F 166 43 12x 9 X 6 Upper Volta M 204 58 14x X ll (1960-61) F 206 59 15x 7 X 11

Central Congo (Leopo1dviUe) M 110 32 11 6 6 8 8 (1955-57) F 98 28 9 5 6 9 9

East Mauritius M 86.3 9.8 1.7 l.l 1.5 1.7 J.9 (1960) F 70.4 11.6 2.3 0.8 2.0 4.4 4.9 Reunion M 130.6 13.8 l.3 1.4 1.9 4.3 4.3 (1958) F 120.0 15.6 1.2 0.7 1.0 2.4 3.4

South South Africa (1957) Coloured M 161.6 21.5 2. 1 1.5 2.7 4.6 4.8 F 141.5 21.1 1.8 1.0 2.3 3.3 3.7 White M 34.8 1.7 0.9 0.8 L8 2.3 1.9 F 26.5 1.6 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.3 Asian M 79.9 8.3 1.1 1.2 1.3 2.4 3.1 F 71.1 9.6 1 ~9 1.4 1.4 2.4 1.8

ASIA India M 198.0 42.6 5.5 X 3.5 x-4.2 (1957-58) F 182.5 45.4 5.5 X 5.4 x- 6.4 Japan M 37.0 . 3.0 J.1 0.7 1.2 2.2 2.3 (1959) F 30.6 2.6 0.9 0.5 0.8 1.4 1.7

ECONOMICALLY DEVELOPED COUNTRIES England and Wales M 26.0 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.0 (1960) F 20.0 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 USA M 33.3 1.2 0.6 0.6 1.3 1.8 1.7 (1959) F 25.6 1.0 0.4 .0.3 . 0.5 0.7 0.9

- 62 - TABLE B.27 (Cont'd)

<.n Mortality rates by age and sex (per 1000) 't Country Age (in years) -----·--- (and years) Sex 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85 and over

AFRICA

North UAR (Egypt) M 10.8 12.4 14.2 15.2 20.3 22.1 30.3 50.2 70.7 134.2 183.6 644.8 (1947) F 8.2 8.1 9.9 8.7 12.7 11.0 18.0 31.5 45.7 100.2 141.7 723.0

West Guinea M 23 23 26 29 70 40 64 70 96 128 x--172 (1955) F i4 22 24 28 30 42 62 70 llO 99 x--139 Senegal M - 6-- x--14-- x--20------x 2--x 70----- (1957) F - 7-- X--14-- X-- 7-- X 49 X 71 Upper Volta M -12-- x--20-- x--34-- x 48--x 101 "'w (1960-61) F -13-- x--17-- x--31-- x--74-- x-- 98

Central

Congo (Leopoldville) M 11 x--15-- x--27--.- x 51 -~-- (1955-57) F 12 x--16-- x--24-- x ----43

East Mauritius M 3.3 4.4 8.2 13.5 26.2 33.5 54.3 67.3 79.6 147.4 263.3 150.0 (1960) F 3.4 6.3 6.2 5.4 11.2 17.3 32.9 54.5 57.8 111.4 216.3 310.6 Reunion M 5.5 8.0 11.0 15.8 22.1 36.2 59.0 71.9 x--107.2-x--153.9 (1958) F 5.4 6.8 7.3 8.2 12.4 13.5 49.4 39.7 x-- 62.2--x-158.3

South South Africa (1957) Coloured M 6.6 7.8 12.1 13.3 22.5 27.2 51.3 66.8 79.5 100.3 165.4 269.9 F 4.8 6.4 8.1 8.6 14.3 18.1 39.6 42.2 54.1 73.2 158.9 223.6 White M 2.9 3.5 5.0 8.7 12.8 20.2 32.2 46.4 62.5 91.9 123.1 204.9 F 1.6 2.0 3.1 5.2 6.8 9.6 17.7 27.0 40.9 66.7 107.7 183.0 Infant mortality may be broken down into two elements: neo-natal mortality, i.e., death during 000 -.c) -.c) -~-No..-i..-iM the period between birth and the expiry of the first r- 00 M -oo NNNN month; and post-neo-natal mortality, i.e. deaths -- during the period from the end of the neo-natal ~ period to the age of one year. Table B. 28, which 00 ..0..-iNoriv--"' 0 V'l-MO includes data on non-indigenous population also 00 shows the relative contributions of each of these ---- two elements to infant mortality. The rates shown here have not generally been adjusted for biases: the assumption is that the ratio between neo and post-neo-natal mortalities are not affected thereby. In the ten population groups with infant mortality M f- OONOO - or)~ orio6No\ rates below 50 per thousand, neo-natal mortality ON \OM \OM is about 50 per cent of total infant mortality. In -- the fourteen groups where the infant mortality

\O~IOM rate is equal to or higher than 50 per 1000, however, NN..-i~ ~N~N neo-natal mortality is definitely lower than 50 per cent. The data show the inverse relationship be­ tween the level of the infant mortality rate and the V'l~r-~ r--:..-ir--:-.i percentage of infant deaths under 28 days. In other N-M- words, in regions where the infant mortality rate is high, as in Africa, post-neo-natal mortality is the most important element m infant mortality. r-ooo~ -.c>o6o6o\ This suggests that since neo-natal mortality is more - - difficult to reduce, great possibilities exist of saving a large number of children under one year of age ~ 0'\ from death by improving the social and environ­ oo6 N- mental conditions of the new-born. 000 Noe (jji) Life expectancy at birth Life expectancy at birth ( ceo) represents the average number of years of life to which a group of new-born infants could look forward if they were subjected to risks of death at each age according 11 to the mortality rates observed, at each level of ~~ age, in the country during the period to which the 00~ measures refer. The figures on life expectancy at birth, given in Table B. 29, vary between 26 (Mali) n~~ and 53 years (UAR) in Africa. The estimated life .- expectancies at birth in the five sub-regions are >< >< ::0 shown in Table B. 20. The lowest value (35 years) V'IO 0\ NN is for West Africa and the highest (47 years) for I Southern Africa: for Africa as a whole, the life expectancy at birth is estimated at 41 years. In in­ dustrialized countries, life expectancy at birth is around 70 years.

(l) Natural increase The estimated rates of natural increase of popu­ lation, given by the balance of the birth rate over the death rate for the African countries are shown in Table B. 26 The highest rate of natural increase (3.8 per cent per year) is recorded in Rwanda and the lowest (0.8 per cent) in Mauritania. Among the sub-regions, the North is estimated to have the highest (2.6 per cent) rate of natural increase and the Central the lowest (2.2 per cent). With declin­ ing fertility and constant level of fertility, the rate of population growth in most African countries is likely to rise in the near future.

-64- TAB.LE 8..28 Distribution of 24 population groups in Africa according to the level of infant mortality rate and the percentage of deaths before 28 days

Rate of in- Number of countries by percentage of infant fant mortality deaths before 28 days (per 1000 live Below 25 25- 49 50 per cent birth) Total per cent per cent and above Total 24 5 14 5 Below 50 10 6 4 50·99 9 2 6 1 100.149 5 3 2 Source: United Nations, Demographic Yearbook, 1961.

TAB.LE B.29 ! Expectancy of life at birth Expectancy of life Country Year at birth (Years) - - AFRICA ------North UAR (Egypt) 1960 52.6 Morocco 1962 47 Sudan 1955 40 Algeria (Moslem) 1948 35• West Ghana 1960 38.7b Senegal 1957 37 Dahomey 1961 37 Ivory Coastc 1956·58 35 Guinea 1954-55 33.0 Upper Volta 1960-61 32 Mali 1957 26 Central Congo (Leopoldville) 1950-52 39 Congo (Brazzaville) 1960-61 37 Central African Republic 1959-60 35 Cameroon (North) 1955-57 33 East Mauritius ex. dep. 1951-53 51 Reunion 1951-55 50 Zanzibard 1958 42.8 Pembad 1958 40.3 Tanganyikae 1957 37.5 South South Africa White 1950-52 67 Asian 1950-52 55 Coloured 1950-52 46 Rhodesia" 1953-55 48.5 Zambia" 1950 37.0 Ango1af 1940 35 ASIA Japan 1962 68 Thailand 1947-48 50 l ndiac 1957·58 46 LATIN AMERICA Argentina 1947 59 Brazil 1940-50 42

- - 65 - TABLE B.29 (Cont'd) Expectancy of life at birth Expectancy of life Country Year at birth (Years)_. __ - - --··-- --·- ---··------ECONOMICALLY DEVELOPED COUNTRIES France 1961 71 England and Wales 1961 71 United States 1961 70 USSR 1958-59 68 Source: United Nations Demographic Yearbook, 1962 and Population Bulletin No.6; National publications. a Corresponding to average of United Nations mortality levels corresponding to 1000 m values obtained from mortality data. X b Corresponding to the official projected population used for development planning. c For the indigenous rural population. d For the Afro-Arab population. e For the indigenous (African) population. f Non-civilized population. g For the rural population.

TABLE B.30 Recorded immigration and emigration Net immigrationa Number of Number of long-term long-term Per cent of Country Year immigrants emigrants Number population North Morocco 1958 4,433 32,845 -28,412 -0.26 West Ghana 1960 26,624 34,752 -8,128 --1.10 Nigeria 1957 4,746 490 4,256 0.01 Saint Helena 1958 506 479 27 0.00 East Tanganyika 1958 5,200b 1,918 Kenya 1958 9,284b 5,361 Uganda 1958 3, l52b 1,421 Mauritius inc. dep. 1958 169 163 6 0.00 Zanzibar and Pemba 1958 586b South South Africa 1958 14,673b 8,807 Former Rhodesia and Nyasaland 1958 16,951 South-West Africa 1957 357 b 57 Source: United Nations Seminar on Population Problems in Africa, Fertility, Mortality, International Migration and Population Growth in Africa, E/CN.14/ASPP/L.2, Table ill.I; National publications. -a-;E;::;-x-cess--o-;:-f recorded immigration over emigration. b Data refer to long- and short-term immigration together.

(m) International migration workers traditionally migrate fro m Liberia to Sierra Migration of labour, internal and international, Leone and, again, from the latter to Ghana and has always been an important fact in many African Nigeria. Gambia and the Ivory Coast also attract countries. The bulk of the migration, however, labour from outside in considerable numbers. More takes place within sub-regions, so that the rate of people from Malawi work on wages in Zambia growth of population of sub-regions as a whole and Rhodesia than in Malawi itself. The Republic would be largely determined by the relative move­ of South Africa also attracts large numbers of mi­ ment of fertility and mortality. In West Africa. grants from neighbouring countries.

- 66- The migration movement varies in character ployed in establishments and by data on resident from tribe to tribe. In some cases each man takes foreigners obtained through censuses or sample his turn to proceed to town for work in a factory, surveys. In general, these data show a much larger and thereby contributes to the tribal income; in volume of immigration than do migration statistics. other cases, migration is unorganised and threatens Table B. 30 presents the available data on in­ the tribal structure2 6. ternational migration in some African countries, African migration statistics are extremely in­ which maintain records of overland movements complete. Since a large part of the movement is and data for Africans. Of these countries, ten have across land frontiers and at numerous points of data on long-term emigration while in six countries crossing, it is difficult to maintain proper records. the data do not distinguish between short and long-term Some African countries do not maintain them while immigration. The balance of net long-term migra­ in some others the data refer to non-Africans only. tion can be calculated for only Morocco, Ghana, In some African countries, the volume of immigra­ Nigeria, Saint Helena and Mauritius. The highest tion is indicated by statistics of alien workers em- net migration (1.1 per cent) is recorded in Ghana, the rates in Morocco and Nigeria being 0.3 and 0.01 per cent, respectively, and the rates in the two 26 United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, Report of the Meeting of Experts on the Integration of Social Deve­ islands still more negligible. For reasons stated lopment Plans with Overall Development Planning, Addis earlier, these data may not represent the actual Ababa, 1963, E/CN.l4/240. paragraph 17. volume of migration.

TABLE B.31 Sex ratio (number of males per lOO females) and age structure of the long-term international migrants Percentage distribution in age groups (years) ·---- Sex Under 55 and Country Year ratio 15 15-34 35-54 over Unknown

North Morocco 1958 ll3a 21 79 ------West Ghana 1960 18 46 32 4 East Mauritius inc. dep, 1958 400 12 69 16 3 Kenya 1958 150 22 42 26 7 3 Mozambique 1954 127 Tanganyika 1958 122 28 39 24 5 4 South Angola 1955 133 South Africa 1957-58 100 30 41 20 5 4 South-West Africa b 1957 85 26 39 19 16 Immigrants North Morocco 1958 16 84 West Ghana 1960 15 45 36 4 East Mauritius inc. dep. 1958 150 31 38 25 6 Kenyac 1958 100 25 48 19 5 2 Mozambique 1954 133 Tanganyika c 1958 113 26 47 18 3 7 South Angola 1955 138 South Africa be 1957-58 113 25 48 21 6 4 South-West Africac 1957 108 14 60 19 7 Source: United Nations Seminar on Population Problems in Africa, Fertility, Mortality, and International Migration and Population Growth in Africa, E/CN.14/ASPP/L.2, Tables III.2 and Ill.3; National publications. -a---,F=o_r_p_e_rs-ons aged 15 years and over only. b Age distribution estimated. c Data refer to both long-term and short-term immigrants.

-67- TABLE B.32

Crude economic activity rates by sex indigenous (African) population

Source Both Male Female Country Year Code a sexes North Sudanb 1956 c 46.7 66.6 26.4 Spanish possessions in North Africab Ceuta 1950 c 39.0 66.0 10.5 MeliUa 1950 c 38.2 65.1 9.7 Algeria (Moslem population) 1954 c 38.7 51.7 25.2 Tunisiab 1956 c 35.8 52.8 19.6 Libya 1954 c 33.3 57.0 7.7 UAR (Egypt)b 1957-58 s 29.7 53.5 6.1 1%0 c 29.8 54.6 4.7 Moroccob 1960 c 28.3 50.0 6.6 West Mauritaniab 1957 E 68.0 Portuguese Guineae 1950 c 61.5 59.5 63.5 Senegal 1960 s 58.7 57.2 60.0 MaJib 1963 E 50.0 49.0d Guineab 1959 E 49.4 Nigeriae 1952-53 c 47.9 54.4 41.7 Ghanab 1960 c 40.5 49.5 31.3 Togob 1962 E 39.7 St. Helena ex. dep. 1956 c 33.9 49.2 19.9 Ivory Coastb 1962 E 21.2 34.3 8.2 Upper VoJtab 1961 E 6I.J Central Gabon 1957 E 62.4 Chad 1961 E 49.Jf Congo (Leopoldville) 1957 s 49.4 48.9 Central African Republicb 1959 E 32.9 Cameroon 1957 E 55.3 East Zanzibar and Pembab 1948 c 58.1 74.7 39.8 Madagascarb 1957 c 4 1.1 47.4 34.8 1962 E 49.3 48.5 46.5 Seychellesb 1960 c 42.6 51.4 34.2 Reunion 1954 c 35.0 51.5 19.5 Mauritiusb 1958 E 34.2 49.8 18.1 Mozambiqueb 1950 c 29.1 55.3 5.1 South Basutoland b 1946 c 63.9 63.5 65.0 South Africas 1960 c 35.3 54.5 15.8 Swazilandb 1956 c 22.8 43.2 4.0 Rhodesia 1962 E 44.7

Source: JLO, Yearbook of Labour Statistics, 1963; United Nations, Demographic Yeilrbook, 1956, and Compendium of Social Statistics, 1963 ; National publications.

a C = Census; S = Sample survey; E = Estimate. b Relates to the total population of all ethnic groups. c "Non-civilized' • population. d For 1961. e Including data for fonner British Cameroons. r 18 - 60 years only. g Other than the white population.

-68- TABLE B.33

Crude economic activity rates by sex; non-indigenous (non-African) population

Country Year Both sexes Male Female Algeria 1954 36.2 58.6 15.6 Basutoland 1946 63.9 62.5 65.0 Cameroon 1957 52.4 71.4 26.9 Comoro Islands 1951 35.0 54.7 9.5 Congo (Leopoldville) 1958 42.4 65.2 16.6 Former French Equatorial Africa 1951 56.5 75.7 23.9 French Somaliland 1951 61.2 81.5 28.5 Former French West Africa 1951 54.7 75.7 20.2 Libya 1954 41.7 68.7 11.7 Madagascar 1951 41.6 62.2 12.3 Morocco 1951 38.6 60.0 17.0 Mozambique 1950 40.4 64.1 10.0 Zambia 1961 44.6 62.1 23.3 Malawi 1961 36.1 54.5 15.8 Rhodesia 1961 43.4 58.5 28.0 Swaziland 1946 36.5 57.2 13.1 Tanganyika 1957 31.8 52.7 7.2 To go 1957 58.5 78.4 30.4 Tunisia 1946 32.8 56.1 10.8 Uganda 1948 32.9 South Africa 1960 36.9 55.1 18.8

Source: ILO, Yearbook of Labour Statistics, 1963; United Nations, Demographic Yearbook, 1956; National publications.

The sex-ratio and age structure of the migrants between 28 per cent (Morocco, 1960) and 47 per are given in Table B. 31. Both in and out-migrants cent (Sudan, 1956). The weighted average for the are preponderately males, except in South-West sub-region may be calculated at 36 per cent. Ex­ Africa, where women emigrants outnumber the cluding Morocco and the UAR (Egypt), the range males; emigrants from South Africa and immigrants of the total activity rate for North Africa is 33 (Libya) into Kenya are equal in number in regard to sex. to 47 per cent (Sudan) and the weighted average Children under the age of 15 constitute between around 40 per cent. These figures are higher than 20 to 30 per cent of the migrants in most cases; those obtained for the European populations of these proportions are much lower than in the general Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia. They are in fact population. of about the same order of magnitude as the corres­ In order to reach a satisfactory understanding ponding rates in most industrialized and semi-in­ of the demographic, social and economic implica­ dustrialized countries. It must be noted that not only does North Africa seem to have lower crude tion~ of international migration in Africa, it would be essential to obtain more comprehensive migra­ activity rates than other African sub-regions, but tion statistics classified at least by sex, age, and also that there is a tendency to underestimate the occupation. crude rate under African conditions, because of difficulties in classifying the unpaid family workers. In fact, if the extreme values of the total activity (n) Participation in economic activity rate of Table B. 32. are eliminated, the range for the total activity rate implied by the data in this The incompleteness and inadequacy of data Table becomes approximately 35 to 55 per cent on the economic characteristics of the population which seems to be slightly higher than in Western in the African countries have already been pointed Europe and North America (37-46 per cent). out. Tables B. 32 and B. 33 give the crude activity Variations in the total activity rates among rates by sex for the indigenous and non-indigenous countries and sub-regions of Africa are of course populations respectively in selected African coun­ partly due to inaccuracies and differences in methods tries. The crude rates for indigenous populations of obtaining data. For example, the estimated crude do not seem to be, in general, unduly low. For ex­ rates for Mauritania (68.0) seem to be curiously ample, in North Africa where they are reported to high while those obtaining in IvoryCoast (21.2), be lower than in the other sub-regions, they vary Mozambique (29.1), Morocco (28.2), UAR (29.8),

-69- TABLE B.34

Age specific activity rates by sex; indigenous (Mrican) population

Age (in years) Country Year 10-14 I 5-19 20-24--- --25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 and over Males North Algeria (Moslems) 1954 J2.2u 62.3 91.9 97.7 97.4 97.0 95.0 78.9 Libya 1954 18.1 b -75.4-- 92.7 93.9 92.4 88.7 68.3 Moroccoc 1960 68.2 59.3 86.8 94.6 95.7 94.2 89.9 69.2 Sudanc 1956 94.6 97.8 ---- 86.1 Tunisiac 1956 9.2• 62.6 69.5 87.7 94.2 88.1 81.6 70.6 UAR (Egypt)c 1957-58 33.0 68.7 86.4 96.4 98.4 98.0 94.1 47.5 1960 68,4 94.8 ---·-- 62.5

West Ghanac 1960 48.0 80.0 92.1 94.8 94.5 89.8 70.2

East Mauritius ex. dep.c 1952 11.5 59.2 89.1 95.0 96.6 94.6 83.3 37.9 Mozambique 1950 4.5 99.3 99.5 99.3 98.8 97.9 96.5 77.2 Reuniooc 1954 J.4d 70.3 91.8 96.9 97.1 95. 1 85.2 47.2 Seychellesc 1960 88.4 - 76.9-

South South Africa (Bantu) 1946 64.0 81.0 97.1 99.2 99.2 98.9 97.7 83.7 Females

North Algeria (Moslems) 1954 9.9" 42.2 42.3 42.5 42.9 44.0 41.4 17.9 Libya 1954 4.3b -10.6- 11.5 12.2 12.1 11.2 6.3 Moroccoc 1960 7.0 11 .2 8.7 8.5 14.4 12.5 11.5 13.5 Sudanc 1956 36.5 ------44.2 ---- 11.3 Tunisiac 1956 6.8" 37.8 33 .5 35.9 39.1 36.9 36.1 16.5 UAR (Egypt)c 1957-58 12.1 11.7 7.4 6.1 7.8 8.7 7.1 2.9 1960 8.6 4.9 - --- 1.9 West Gha nac 1960 42.7 49.2 52.6 61.0 67.0 65.7 4 1.9

East Mauritius ex. dep. c 1952 4.0" 14.0 18.5 20.5 27.0 3l.I 27.5 7.4 Mozambiquec 1950 0.3 5.1 8.2 9.2 9.9 9.2 4.0 1.4 Reunionc 1954 0.7d 38.7 34.1 28.4 31.1 32.6 32.1 18.8 Seychelles< 1960 57.3 - 43.0--

South South Africa (Bantu) 1946 56.4 68.3 52.9 34.4 28.4 27.8 27.1 21.7

Source: United Nations, Population Studies .No. 33; ILO, Yearbook of Labour Statistics, 1963; .National publications.

a Data on economically active persons under 15 years of age, tabulated without sub-division, were related to the population aged 10-14 years to obtain the activity rates. b Activity rat.e for age group 5-14. c Relates to the total population of all ethnic groups. d The tabulation of the economically active population was confined to persons 14 years of age and over. In computing the activity ra tes, active persons aged 14 were related to the population aged 10-14 years.

- 70- TABLE B.35

Age specific activity rates in selected African countries; non-indigenous (non-African) male population

Age (in years) Country Year 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 and over Algeria 1954 I.7a 34.1 83.5 97.5 97.7 96.0 80.9 45.0 Former French Equatorial Africa 1951 75.1 92.1 95.3 95.3 95.0 89.9 73.5 Former French West Africa 1951 6.4a 52.6 96.4 97.3 96.3 96.2 80.7 78.3 Madagascar 1951 1.4a 33.6 92.1 90.9 90.8 88.9 79.4 59.9 Morocco 1951 4.0b 52.9 92.0 97.4 97.4 93.7 72.0 38.6 Mozambique 1950 2.1 48.6 89.7 95.6 96.4 94.9 85.5 52.9 Zambia 1961 43.5 98.5 76.9 Malawi 1956 58.9 97.7 58.9 Rhodesia 1961 34.4 97.2 45.4 South West Africa 1951 58.5 98.9 99.7 99.7 99.0 96.5 76.4 South Afqca 1951 52.5 93.2 44.1

Source: United Nations, Population Studies No. 33; ILO, Yearbook of Labour Statistics, 1963. a on economically active persons under 15 years of age, tabulated without sub-division, were related to the population aged 10-14 years to obtain the activity rates. b The tabulation of the economically active population was confined to persons under 14 years of age and over. In computing the activity rates, active persons aged 12-14 years were related to the population aged 10-14 years.

the Central African Republic (32.9) and Libya (33.3) and economic differences, ~eem to indicate less seem to be too low. Since the crude activity rates variations among African countries and no signifi­ for males in these countries, except in Ivory Coast, cant difference among sub-regions. The reported vary only between 49 and 55 per cent, the wide varia­ male activity rates in African countries are generally tion in the crude rates is obviously due to extremely only slightly higher than those reported in the semi­ wide variations in the crude female activity rates. industrialized and industrialized countries of the In Mozambique and the UAR (Egypt) the crude world. female activity rates are reported to be 5.1 per cent As pointed out earlier, the age-specific partici­ and 4. 7 per cent respectively which are among the pation rates among males in the African countries lowest rates reported in the world. They pull down are characterized by the higher participation in the the crude rate for both sexes taken together. These younger (under 15) and older (65 and over) age are likely to be due to the definition of active female groups. For the few countries for which data are population27 and errors in reporting.2s available and which seem to have generally adopted Social and cultural differences among African definitions comparable with those used in Western countries and sub-regions are also likely to con­ Europe, female activity rates for the middle age tribute, partially, to variations in participation by groups vary mostly between 30 and 45 per cent which females. Unfortunately, it seems impossible at pre­ correspond to rates found in industrialized Western sent to ass::ss how much of the reported variation countries (Table B. 34 and B. 35); the exceptions is real and how much due to errors in, and incom­ are Libya, Mozambique and the U AR (Egypt). parability of, available data. The corresponding This is not surprising, for while in most African data for males, which are generally not only more countries the greatest proportion of the labour relialbe but also are less affected by social, cultural, force is engaged in subsistence agriculture, a large proportion of females of working age work suffi· cient number of hours per week to be classified as 27 In Mozambique, only females reporting a remunerated occupation were classified as active. If farm housewives, economically active. Unlike in industrialized coun­ many of whom are unpaid family workers engaged also tries, changes in marital status do not materially in agricultural pursuits, are included, the crude activity affect their participation. 29 rates are overstated; they rise to 58.6 for both sexes and 61.8 for females. 28 See e.g. A.M.N. El Shafei, "The Current Labour Force 29 United Nations, "Demographic Aspects of Manpower Sample Survey in Egypt (UAR)", in International Labour Report I, Sex and Age Patterns of Participation in Review, Vol. no. 5, November 1960, pp. 432-449. Activities", Population Studies No. 33, p. 23.

71- TABLE B.36

Perceotage of male salar.ied employees and wage earners to total economically active males; indigenous (African) population

Percentage of salaried Country Year employees and wage earners - - North

Spanish possessions in North Africa a Ceuta 1950 89.5 Melilla 1950 79.5 Tunisia 1956 50.7 U.A.R. (Egypt) 1947 4 41.3 1960 48.9 Algeria 1948b 62.8 1954e 46.4 Moroccod 1952 41.2

West Ghana• 1960 29.6 Former French Equatorial Africaer 1955 13.2 Togor 1955 9.5 Sierra Lconee 1955 8.1 Former French West Africae r 1955 7.9 Gambia 1954 6.7 Nigeria 1953 4.0

Central Congo (Leopoldville) 1955 38.9 Former Ruanda-Urundi 1956 21.3 Cameroonr 1955 18.3

East Mauritius• 1952 86.1 Reunion a 1954 62.1 Mozambiquec 1950.55 36.0 Kenya 1954-55 29.9 Madagascarcr 1955 20.7 Tanganyika 1955 18.9 Uganda 1955 17.0

South Zambia 1956 48.4 Malawi 1956 45. 1 Rhodesia 1955-56 44.5 Swaziland• 1956 41.0 Ango1a 0 1954-55 38.6 Source: ILO, AfriCllll Labour Survey, 1958 and Year-book of Labour Statistics, 1963; United Nations, Compendium of Social Statistics, 1963. a Relates to the total population. b Moslem population. c Non-Europeans. d Southern Zone. e Including female labour. f Excluding government employees.

- 72 - TABLE B.37 Percentage distribution of the economically active population in industries by sex

Agriculture, Mining Forestry, and Country , ______Year Hunting and Fishing Quarrying Manufacturing Both Both Both Male Female sexes Male Female sexes Male Female sexes North Algeria (Non-European) 1954 75.4 96.3 82.1 0.5 0.0 0.4 4.0 0.5 2.9 Morocco 1960 57.8 47.6 56.6 1.5 0.3 1.3 6.3 20.9 8.0 Spanish possessions in North Africa Ceuta 1950 12.1 0.3 10.5 1.1 0.1 13.7 10.8 13.3 Melilla 1950 17.5 0.5 15.4 1.8 1.6 15.0 12.6 14.7 Sudan 1956 86.9 2.2 Tunisia 1956 59.4 89.6 68.1 1.5 0.1 1.1 6.8 4.7 6.2 UAR (Egypt) 1960 57.8 44.0 56.7 0.3 0.0 0.3 9.5 4.0 9.0 West Ghana 1960 59.6 55.2 57.9 2.7 0.2 1.8 8.1 9.5 8.6 Central Congo (Leopoldville) 1955 69.8 85.2 2.9 1.4 5.7 2.8 East Mauritius 1952 42.3 52.0 44.3 0.0 '-l 0.1 0.0 14.8 9.7 13.8 <.u Mozambique (indigenous) 1950 75.0 96.9 77.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 4.9d 0.7d 4.5d Zanzibar and Pemba 1948 60.4 66.9 62.6 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.2 0.4 South South Africa Bantu Population 1946 55.2 56.8 55.7 16.6 0.1 11.5 6.4 0.9 4.7 Other than white 1960 40.2 15.4 34.7 15.3 0.1 11.9 11.2 5.4 9.9 White 1960 13.4 1.2 10.3 7.0 0.9 5.4 21.6 15.6 20.1

Year Construction Commerce

Male Female sexes Male Female sexes Male Female sexes North Algeria (Non-European) 1954 2.4 0.0 1.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.6 0.2 3.2 Morocco 1960 1.9 1.6 0.3 0.3 15.4a 25.4a 16.5a Spanish possessions in North Africa Ceuta 1950 11.6 10.1 0.8 0.7 12.9 6.6 12.1 Melilla 1950 10.1 8.8 0.6 0.5 12.3 8.9 11.9 Sudan 1956 2.7 0.1 2.6 Tunisia 1956 3.0 0.1 2.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 6.3 0.9 4.7 UAR (Egypt) 1960 2.2 0.0 2.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 8.3 6.1 8.1 West Ghana 1960 5.1 0.3 3.3 0.8 0.0 0.5 5.7 26.5 13.6 Central Congo (Leopoldville) 1955 4.3 2.1 3.0 1.5 TABLE B.37 (Cont'd.) Percentage distribution of the economically active population in industries by sex

Electricity, Gas, Water and Country Year Construct- ion Sanitary Services Commerce Both Both Both Male Female sexes Male Female sexes Male Female sexes East Mauritius 1952 10.8 0.6 8.8 0.9 0.2 0.7 10.5 3.0 9.0 Mozambique (indigenous) 1950 1.3 0.0 1.2 d d d 1.4 0.7 1.4 Zanzibar and Pemba 1948 1.5 0.0 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.4 4.2 0.3 2.9 South South Africa Bantu Population 1946 2.9 0.0 2.0 2.6 0.1 1.9 Other than white 1960 5.8 0.0 4.5 0.8 0.0 0.6 5.9 1.6 4.9 White 1960 8.2 0.8 6.3 1.2 0.2 0.9 15.5 35.1 20.5

Transport, Storage Not Classifiable ~_untry Year and Communication··---- Services elsewhere Both Both Both Male Female sexes Male Female sexes Male Female sexes North .... Algeria (Non-European) 1954 1.5 0.0 1.0 2.1 2.5 2.2 9.4 0.6 6.5 +>- Morocco 1960 2.6 0.8 2.4 a 16.7 5.5 15.5 Spanish possessions in North Africa Ceuta 1950 10.5 2.5 9.4 33.3 76.3 39.0 4.1 3.5 4.0 Melilla 1950 7.6 1.6 . 6.9 25.1 72.9 31.0 10.0 3.5 9.2 Sudan 1956 0.9 3.2 1.4b Tunisia 1956 2.7 0.2 2.0 7.5 3.8 6.4 12.7 0.6 9.2 UAR (Egypt) 1960 3.5 0.4 3.3 15.5 39.1 17.3 2.4 6.3 2.7 West Gbana 1960 4.0 O.l 2.5 7.4 3.0 5.7 6.5" 5.2° 6.0" Central Congo (Leopo1dvil.le) 1955 3.0 1.5 1.2 0.6 10.1 5.0 East Mauritius 1952 6.6 0.3 5.3 13.1 33.7 17.2 1.0 0.4 0.9 Mozambique (indigenous) 1950 0.6 0.0 0.6 17.5 2.4 16.1 Zanzibar and Pemba 1948 l.8 1.2 7.2 1.2 5.1 23.8 31.3 26.3 South South Africa Bantu Population 1946 2.6 0.0 1.8 9.8 38.1 18.5 4.0 3.9 4.0 Other than white 1960 2.6 0.0 2.0 10.3 60.6 21.4 7.9 16. .8 9.9 White 1960 12.5 5.3 10.6 17.3 36.0 22.1 3.2 4.7 3.6 Source: ILO, Yearbook of Labour Statistics, 1963; United Nations, Demographic Yearbook, 1956, and Compendium of Social Statistics, 1963. a Commerce- and services shown together under "commerce". c Unemployed. b 1.0 not classifiable elsewhere and 0.4 unemployed. d Persons employed in electricity aod gas industries presumably included with "manufacturing''. ( o) Proportion of salaried and wage earners in different service industries and a negligible pro­ The proportion of male wage and salary earners portion in manufacturing. In other African countries in the total male labour force is relatively low in the rates of 60 or 70 per cent or more are usual. the majority of African countries, except, perhaps, Since the countries listed in Table B. 37. belong in unrepresentative small areas such as Mauritius, mostly to the more industrialized sub-region of Ceuta and Melilla (Table B. 36). In North Africa Africa, the proportion of the labour force engaged where this rate seems to be higher than in the other in agriculture in most African countries is likely to be of the order of 70 per cent; the proportion sub-regions, it varies between 41 and 63 per cent. In East Africa it varies between 17 and 36 per cent of the labour force in manufacturing industries is very low. and in West Africa between 4 and 30 per cent and in Central Africa between 18 and 39 per cent, and The same conclusions apply to the services in Southern Africa between 39 and 48 per cent. sector. Except for the UAR (Egypt), the proportions of the work force classified in this sector in the coun­ tries represented in Table B. 37. are invariably lower (p) Distribution by industry than 20 per cent. In view of the fact that the countries Unfortunately, relevant data for indigenous represented in this Table are probably the most populations are restricted to only a few African industrialized in Africa, it is likely that the corres­ countries mainly north of the Sahara (Table B. 37). ponding rates for all African countries would be In these countries, the majority of the indigenous distinctly lower and probably approximate to the labour force (about 57 per cent) is employed in rate found in the less industrialized countries of agriculture, while a small minority is employed Latin America and South East Asia.

3. CONCLUSIONS: DEMOGRAPHIC OUTLOOK AND STRATEGY

(a) Economic and demographic setting in Africa level and the base of the age-pyramid to widen. Urbanization too is increasing. The basic features of the economic landscape The percentage of the population in Africa in Africa are well-known. With about one-fourth engaged in economic activities compares favourably of the total land surface of the world, Africa contains with that in other regions. The age specific participa­ a population of 9 per cent or about 273 million tion rates are, however, characterized by high pro­ of the total world population. The former is in­ portions among the young and the very old, typical creasing at the rate of 2.4 or 2.5 per cent per year. in under-developed agricultural economies. The dis­ Compared with Western Europe, the area of land tribution of the economically active among the under cultivation per head of the population in branches of economic activities also reveals the Africa is three times as high; livestock units per overwhelming preponderance of agriculture and capita are twice and the grazing area per unit of related industries in contrast to manufacturing and the livestock nearly 7 times as high. Its energy re­ other "modern" occupations. sources-coal in the South, hydro-power in the Central region, oil and gas in the North- are considerable. But owing to a low level of utilization of its natural (b) Main aspects of demographic transition resources, Africa accounts for only 2 per cent of In Western countries the transition from a the world output. If South Africa is excluded, the balance of high death and birth rates to one of low per capita income in Africa is only $90 a year com­ death and birth rates took between one and two pared with $1,200 in the industrially advanced coun­ centuries, It was a gradual process simultaneous tries. 3 ° with gradual improvement of economic and social The population perspective in Africa should conditions and income per capita; a substantial be reviewed in this setting. During the past two volume of emigration, in some instances, relieved decades the numbers increased by nearly one-half population pressure at home. In Africa, as in most as a result of the rate of growth rising from 1.5 per underdeveloped countries, the recent decline in cent per annum in the 1940's to 2.1 per cent in the mortality has been the outcome of advances in 1950's. The mortality rate (in particular the infant medicine, and control of epidemics rather than of mortality rate) has been falling so that with the major improvements in social and economic con­ fertility rate more or less constant, the rate of growth ditions. There has been no significant rise in per of the population is likely to rise above the current capita income from which one could expect the positive correlation of the increasing level of living and declining fertility observed in the Western coun­ 30 Industrial Growth in Africa, op. cit. tries to emerge in African countries also.

6 -15- The present rate of growth of population in the usual sense. 3 2 But such investments take longer Africa is about twice as high as that in industrial to produce their effects than others which are directly Europe in the nineteenth century. An excessively used to increase production. In general, social ex­ rapid growth of population imposes a heavy strain penditures in African countries tend to be higher, on developing economies; it calls for large invest­ in relation to national income, than in countries ments in new means of production and in social at comparable stages of development in other parts and economic infrastructures and tends to aggra­ of the world.33 vate the existing scarcity of capital for development At the same time, before judging whether the projects. The difficulty is increased by the predomi­ demographic burden has in fact risen, it is necessary nance, in most African countries, of subsistence to look into the elements of the economic transition agriculture, lack of financing facilities and out­ in Africa. Only then can a clear idea be obtained moded economic structure and technology.ll of the prospects of an increase in the rate of growth Countries in Africa with constant high fertility of GNP per capita. rates have a high proportion of population in the younger age groups. These populations need a pro­ (c) Prospects of economic transition in Africa34 portionately larger outlay on education and health. After adjustment for the different output struc­ Studies in the United States indicate that. broadly tures and price relatives3 s, the per capita output speaking, investments which add to the stock of can be estimated (in United States relative prices) knowledge (e.g. education or research) or which at $150, about one-eighth of that in the industrial increase the productive capacity of manpower (e.g. countries. The adjusted per capita output in agri­ outlays on health and recreation), in short, invest­ culture in Africa is about half that in the industrial ment in human beings, had contributed much more countries, and in industries about one-twenty-fifth. to economic growth than capital formulation in This means that to reach the level of industrial countries, per capita industrial output in Africa has to be raised 25-fold aod agricultural two-fold. With a per capita rate of growth of 1.5 to 2 per cent 31 Report of the Seminar on Population Problems in Africa, in agriculture and 7-8 per cent in industry, Africa op. cit., First Part, paragraph 11. Conventionally, problem can perform this feat only in four or five decades. of a high rate of population growth is stated as follows: Population is considered to be an autonomous, These growth rates are only illustrative. A different retarding variable in the Harcod-Domar equation of structure of material resources may well imply differ­ growth (as also in the growth equations utilizing the Cobb­ ent growth paths in various sectors. Table B. 38 Douglas production function): gives the assumed rate of growth of the GNP in G = rate of growth of Gross National Product = sjm the development plans of a few selected African s = percentage of savings (including net capital flow) in relation of GNP, and countries along with the rate of growth of popula­ m = marginal capital-output ratio, tion. The rate of growth of GNP has been planned calculating all these net of capital depreciation. The rate to be between 4 and 8 per cent per year and that of of growth of per capita GNP is given approximately by: per capita GNP to be between 2 and 6 per cent. g = G - p = s/m - p where p = rate of growth of population Again investment as a ratio to the Gross National Product is s = m. p + m.g 32 Report Solow, "Technical Charge and the Aggregate A part of this investment ratio equal to m.p (the product Productive Function," Review of Economics and Statistics, of the marginal capital - output ratio and the rate of August 1957; Odd AuJcrost, "Investment and Economic growth of population) will go to keep the per capita GNP Growth", Productivity Measurement Review, European at the same level as before and the balance to increase it. productivity Agency, Paris, February 1959; S .Kumel~, An alternative formulation is to assume a constant Capital in the American Economy: Its Formation and Plan­ proportionality between the capital stock and the GNP ning, Princeton University Press for the National Bureau when m would denote both the marginal and the average of Economic Research, 1961; T.W. Schultz, "Education capital output ratios. The rate of growth of capital would as a Source of Economic Growth", United Nations then become equal to G, the rate of growth of GNP. A Economic and Social Council, Conference 011 Education part of this rate of growth of capital stock equal to p, the and Social Development in America, Santiago, 1962. rate of growth of population, will be required to meet 33 Report of the Meeting ofExperts on the InJegration ofSocr'al investment needs for the gfowing population and is often Development Plans with Over-all Development Planning, termed the "demographic investments". op.cit. paragraph 26. The above formulations are however, known to be 34 For details, see ECA Industrial Growth in Africa. op.cit.; subject to certain limitations. There is some evidence that Surendra J. Pate!, "Economic Distance Between Nations: the marginal capital-output ratio is negatively correlated Its Origin, Measurement Outlook, in Econumic Journal, with the rate of growth of GNP (Economic Commission March 1964; "Rates of Industrial Growth in the Last for Europe, Economic Survey of Europe in 1959, "Develop­ C.entury" in Economic Development and Culture Change, ment Problems in Southern Europe and Ireland", Chapter Voi.IX, No.3, April 1961. VII, Page 45), and it may also be more retional to keep 35 Industrial Growth in Africa, op. cit. The study of Gilbert provision for a change in the savings ratio by considering and Kravis showed that the per capita income of Italy, sectoral growth or otherwise (as in, for example, the model if it were to be expressed in United States relative prices of Mabalanobis: P.C. Mahalanobis, "Tire Approach of for comparison, needs to be raised upward by more than Operational Research to Planning In India", Sankhya, 80 per cent. See their Comparative National Products and Vol. 16, parts 1 and 2, 1955). Price Levels, (OEEC, Paris) p.l65.

- 76- TABLE B.38

In .. Assumed rates of growth of gross national product and population in selected African countries

Assumed Assumed rate of growth Assumed savings Recent rate of Recent rate of (Per cent per year) of marginal (Investment)a growth of population natural increaseb GNP Population Per Capita Capital ratio (per Period per cent Period per cent Country Period GNP output ratio cent of GNP) per year per year

North UAR (Egypt) 1960-65 6.9 2.2 4.7 3.2 22 1947-60 2.4 1955-57 2.2 Morocco 1960-64 6.2 2.5 3.7 2.5 15.5 1958-61 2.8c 1962 2.7 Tunisia 1962-64 6 1.7-1.9 4.1-4.3 4 24 1946-56 1.9 1961 3.2 Sudan 1961-71 5 2.8 2.2 3.4 17 1958-61 2.8c 1955-56 2.8d

West Mauritania 1963-66 9.2 4.5 41.8 1957 0.8 Senegal 1961-64 8 2-2.5 5.5-6 1.9 15.2 e 1960 2.6 Mali 1961-65 8 2.5 5.5 2.2 17.6 1958-61 2.1 c 1960-61 2.8 ..;a ..;a Ghana 1963-70 5.5 2.6 2.9 3.6 20 1948-60 3.2f Nigeria 1962-68 4 2-2.5 1.5-2 3.75 15 e

Central Congo (Leopoldville) 1965-69 7-9 3.1 22-28 1958-61 2.4C 1955-57 2.3 Cameroon 1960-80 4.6 3.6 2.58 11.5 1958-61 0.8c 1960-61 1.3

East Uganda 1961/62-65/66 4.5-5 2.5 2-2.5 3.0 13.5-15 1948-59 2.5 1958-59 2.2 Ethiopia 1962-67 4.3 1.8 2.5 3.35 14.4 1957-62 1.6C Tanganyika 1964-69 6.5h 2.0h 4.5h 2.9 18.8 1948-57 1.8 1957 2.2 Source: Compiled by Economic Commission for Mrica, Planning and Policies Section and Demographic Section from national publications. a Including net capital flow. b Birth rate minus death rate. c Official estimate. d Revised; the unrevised rate was 3.3. e Rate not computed because of apparent lack of comparability of estimates available. f On adjustment for net under-enumeration in the 1948 census. g Estimated for 1960-65. h Estimated from the values for 1960-62 and 1970. (d) Demographic development strategy What would be the movement in brith rates One method of increasing per capita income during this period? Experience of various countries is to limit the growth of population through family over a considerable period suggests that whatever planning. The Government of the United Arab is said about "the unbridled human proclivity for Republic (Egypt) has adopted this technique as reproduction", there is a ceiling to recorded birth official policy and the Government of Tunisia has rates. The present birth rates in African countries, started experiments. But family planning can hardly may be taken to be near this ceiling. 3 6 O nce the be expected to have a significant impact on fertility movement in the death rate has been assumed, in the next decade or two. the actual rate of growth of population would be the result of what is done about the birth rate. The The limits within which the demographic stra­ demographic strategy over the next 20 years may tegy of a country can be effective within a period of follow three courses: 20 years may be illus:rated by a simple arithmetical exercise. The behaviour of the two factors responsible (i) neutral or ineffective.: a continuation of for the rate of natural increase of population, namely the present birth rate, so that the popula­ the birth and the death rates, indicates the types tion grows faster than now; of demographic strategy that can be employed. With the advance of science, zeal of modern medicine (ii) moderately effective : reduction of the birth men, success in epidemic control, conquest of disease rate in line with the death rate so that net and, above all, given the supreme desire of human population growth rate remains unchanged; beings to survive, scope for demographic policy (iii) highly effective: reduction of the birth concerning the death rate is to influence its decline. rate from 45 per thousand at present to, It is not easy to indicate the pace and the limit of say, 25 per thousand by 1980. this decline, but the present level of the death rate in industrial countries may be taken as a floor to The results of each of these strategies over the its possible downward movement in developing next 20 years are summarized in Table B. 39. These coun tries. For the purpose of this exercise, it has are merely illustrative. The population prospects been assumed that the death rate would fall from of Africa for 1960-2000 have been worked out on about 23 in 1960 in Africa to about 15 per thousand the basis of more elaborate methods by the United over next 20 years. Nations.37

TABLE B.39 Growth of population under different assumptions of demographic strategy Rate per 1000 persons Population in Demographic Average for 1980 Strategy Item 1960 1980 1960-1980 (1960 = 100) (i) Neutral Birth rate 47 47 47 Death rate 23 15 19 Growth rate 24 32 28 174 (ii) Moderately Birth rate 47 39 43 Death rate 23 15 19 Growth rate 24 24 24 161 (iii) Highly effective Birth rate 47 25 36 Death rate 23 15 19 Growth rate 24 w 17 140

With an absolutely neutral (ineffective) demo­ 25 per thousand. The fall in birth rate is of about graphic strategy, the rate of growth of population the same order as that attained in Japan which, in African countries would rise from 2.4 per cent operating under special conditions, is regarded as per year in 1960 to 3.2 per cent in 1980, with an average of about 2.8 per cent for the period as a 36 The fertility in some African countries may rise slightly whole; total population would increase by 74 per in the short-run because of improvement in health, possible removal of taboos (prologation of lactation, customary cent. Under a moderately effective demographic periods of abstinence etc.) and abolition of polygamy. strategy, the population growth would continue 37 United Nations, Provisional Report on World Populo· to remain the same, i.e. about 2.4 per cent per year; tion Prospects as Assessed in 1963, ~ /SOA/ Ser.R/ 7. The the total population would increase by 61 per cent implicit rates of growth of population in Africa dUring 1960-1980 on "high," "medium," and "low" assumptions in 20 years. With a highly successful demographic were 2.7 per cent, 2.5 per cent, and 2.3 per cent respect­ strategy, the birth rate would fail from 47 to, say, ively.

-78- one of the most remarkable examples of success the "high" assumption. In contrast to area within in reducing the birth rate. A birth rate of 25 per which a demographic strategist can manoeuvre, thousand is about the same as in Northern America it is obvious that the area of manoeuvrability open (Canada and !he United States) and somewhat to economic strategy is larger. higher than in Europe, excluding the USSR. Such The actual rate of increase in per capita income a drastic decline in birth rates in Africa would amount would obviously depend on the combined results to telescoping in 20 years the entire demographic of the rates of growth of output and population. transition which was accomplished over more than So long as overall output increases 2 to 3 times a century in industrial countries. These facts are faster than population, the growth in per capita cited in order to indicate how difficult it may be income would be substantial in the long-term. for Africa to achieve the reduction in the next 20 years. But even with this most optimistic assump­ The solution of the population problem may, tion, the rate of population growth would fall from in this setting, lie partly in planning for economic 2.4 per cent in 1960 to 1 per cent in 1980, with an and social development, and partly in operating average rate of about 1.7 per cent per year; and on the demographic factors. Apart from the need the total population would increase by 40 per cent. for filling in the gaps in the quantitative informa­ tion on the basic demographic variables, there is The actual growth of population is more likely also the need for studies on the inter-relationships to be somewhere between the rates assumed for of population growth and economic and social neutral and moderately effective strategies .The development, recommended recently by the Eco­ difference between the two is equivalent to a reduc­ nomic and Social Council of the United Nations. tion in the growth rate by 1/2 per cent year, or a These should include, among other things, studies lowering of the population at the end of 20 years on the implications of population trends on invest­ by 7 per cent. This then suggests the extent of man­ ment needs in different sectors of the economy; oeuvrability for population policy in African coun­ the relationships of fertility and mortality with tries in the next 20 years. levels of living, detribalisation, urbanization, indus­ As pointed out before, the rate of growth of trialization; the requirement of trained manpower Gross National Product envisaged by African Deve­ in the framework of African development plans; lopment Plans varies from 4 per cent to 8 per cent and the cost and effectiveness of different kinds per year. Economic growth potential under the of population policies under the conditions of tribal three hypotheses 4, 6, and 8 per cent are shown organization, modern agriculture, and urban in Table B. 40. societies, taking into account the social barriers to effective population policies regarding migration, participation in economic activities, re-deployment Table B. 40 and training of manpower, and family planning. Such studies are proposed to be undertaken by the Growth of gross national product under different Economic Commission for Africa. assumptions of economic growth There is also an acute need for such studies in individual African countries which are launch­ Assumption of Rate of growth GNP in 1980 economic growth (per cent per year) (1960=100) ing, or have already launched, developmental plans in a period of the demographic transition marked (i) low 4 224 by high stationary fertility, evidences of a decline (ii) medium 6 320 in mortality, and large rural-urban migration. The (iii) high 8 466 most important uses to which censuses and other demographic data in the developing countries of Africa can be put would be to provide a quantitative basis for decisions on questions of public policy The GNP would increase by 124 per cent under and governmental action in economic and social the "low" assumption, by 220 per cent under the fields and also determine the demographic out­ "medium" assumption, and by 366 per cent under comes of different programme-paths.

- 79 -- Chapter B. 11.

DRAFT OUTLINE OF THE FIRST FIVE YEAR PLAN OF THE

REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO

(A Note on the Report of the UNECA Mission to the Republic of the Congo (Leopoldville) )

The Government of the Republic of the Congo the main features of the Congolese economy in ou:li ned in September 1963 some of the general order to bring out the major points which are favour­ princ;ples to be used in framing the country's Five able to a rapid growth and to indicate the weaknesses Year Development Plan. In November, the Prime which have to be surmounted. Nature has been Minister approached the Chief of Civilian Opera­ kinder to the Congo than many other countries. tions in the Congo with a request to provide a plan­ By any standard of comparison, it is richly endowed. ning expert to help prepare a draft outline of the Its natural resources provide almost an unlimited Republic's First Five-Year Plan. As a result of potential fo r rapid expansion in agriculture, mining, consultations with the Under Secretary for Econo­ manufacturing and energy. mic and Social Affairs at Headquarters, it was decid­ Over the last 40 years, the Congolese economy ed that the Economic Commission for Africa would has been a dynamic one. Its gross domestic product send one of its staff members. appears to have expanded at an average rate of over In view of the urgency of the request the 4 per cent per year. During these 40 years, there arrangements were carried out quickly. The ECA were two periods (1920 to 1930 and 1945 to 1957) staff member selected for the job was already in when its annual growth rate was nearly as high the Congo on 20 December. His report, entitled as 7 per cent, or enough to dou ble the output every " Draft Outline of the First Five-Year Plan of the 10 years. In contrast to many other developing Republic of the Congo". was submitted on 17 countries, the major problem in the Congo there­ January, 1964, to the Government. In its work, fore was not so much to raise its annual rate of the ECA received valuable assistance from the secret­ growth, but to repeat and maintain its momentum. ariat of the Ministry of Planning and Industrial There was an economic setback after In­ Development, the staff of the United Nations Civilian dependence but its dimensions were much smaller Operations, the Faculty of .Economic and Social than during the Great Depression. The level of Sciences at the University of Lovanium and the commodity output in 1963 may well have been equal Federation of Congolese Enterprises. to, or perhaps a little higher than, that in 1955. The Draft Outline of the First Five-Year Plan T he economic setback was not reflected in a reduced was discussed at considerable length at a special level of output, but mainly dislocation resulting National Conference of Provincial Ministers of from transport breakdown, monetary muddle and Planning, which was held in Leopoldville from 8 a serious deterioration of administrative and technical to 15 February 1964. The conference adopted it, services. Once this dislocation was repaired, the by a formal resolution, as the basis of a comprehen­ ground would be cleared for resuming the Congo's sive plan. The Outline was recently published by upward economic growth. the Ministry of Planning and Industrial Develop­ Distribution of income in the Congo is ex­ ment. tremely uneven. The share of the African popula­ tion amounts to only one-half of the total income. There is also considerable disparity of per capita The Economic background output among the provinces - the highest level The Draft Outline reviews, at some length, being four times the lowest.

-80- The structure of output in the Congo is much (i) A very rapid rise of 7 to 9 per cent per more advanced than in the other countries in Africa. year in gross national income; Mining, manufacturing and construction account for over one-third of national income, and share (ii) A doubling of industrial output through of "subsistence" agriculture in the total less than an expan ion of those industries which one-seventh. The output of intermediate goods supply the growing domestic market for and of the metal processing industry accounts for the consumer and the intermediate goods nearly two-thirds of total industrial output. Gross industries; developing Stanleyville as ano­ capital formation was running between 20 to 30 ther industrial centre forming with Leopold­ per cent of national output during the fifties, or ville and Elisabethville the base of a new equal to the ratios in Japan and higher than any­ industrial complex, and laying the founda­ where else in Africa except the Rhodesias. Nearly tion for the development during the next 60 per cent of this high level of investment was financ­ Plan of a domestic engineering and capital ed from depreciation funds and undistributed cor­ goods industry; porate profits earned in the Congo. All these provided extremely favourable con­ (iii) Raising agricultural output by, at least, ditions for the longer-term development of the Congo. one-third through a concentrated reliance Of course these conditions could not by themselves on extensive cultivation for subsistence assure rapid growth. They needed a wise and far­ crops and intensive farming for commercial sighted policy in favour of progress. crops; On the other hand, the Congo was far behind other countries in Africa in the training and supply (iv) Expanding mineral output in tune with world demand and concentrating upon of skilled and semi-skilled manpower. Only 3 per increasing processing of the products; cent of children in the secondary age-group attended school; that share was 5 to 10 times higher in most African countries. (v) Beginning with the lnga project so as to develop the Leopoldville - Matadi - Inga area as an advanced industrial complex;

(vi) An extremely rapid increase in educational The Plan Objectives and training facilities, particularly at the secondary, technical and the university levels; to provide, by the end of the Plan, The Draft Outline of the First Five-Year Plan for universal and compulsory primary edu­ was prepared as a part of a 40 to 50 Year perspective cation, to treble or quadruple the enrol­ during which, it was suggested, the Congo could ment at the secondary schools and to aspire to complete the economic and social transi- raise the number of students at the univer­ 1ion which took about a century in the industrial sity and the technical institutes to at least countries. Such an ambitious transition required 7,000 to 8,000; the adoption of development planning as an instru­ ment of policy. The success of planning in turn depended not only on the realistic basis of the plan (vii) A marked reduction in the inequality of but also on political and economic stability, wise incomes and a more even distribution of and forward-looking policies and appropriate insti­ economic power; to prepare the basis tutions to implement them with vision and vigour. for the widest equality of opportunity to all the people so that they would have The Draft Outline proposed two rates of pride in the present and hope in the future. growth- a h;gher and a lower one. The actual rate to be adopted finally depended on the successful establishment of various conditions essential to These objectives require to be translated into the alternative chosen. The lower rate was to be concrete details and projects. The Draft Outline 7 per cent per year and the higher 9 per cent. These proposed that this should be taken up as the major were not much different from what the economy task of the next stage of plan formulation in the had already achieved over nearly two decades in Congo. If these general objectives were to be attain­ the past. ed, the Draft Outline suggested as first over-all approximations the main lines of development in The Draft Outline suggested the following as various sectors. These are summarized in the table the main elements in he Congo's strategy for eco­ below. In order to avoid confusion caused by recent nomic and social development during its first Five­ price movements, all estimates are given in constant Year Plan. prices of 1958.

-- bl- Suggested magnitudes for the Congo's First Five-Year Plan, 1965 to 1969

BiUion francs in 1958 francs Annual Compound Increase Increase from in per cent Estimates Target 1964 from 1964 Items 1958 1964 1969 1969 -- --to -1969--· - I. By sector or origin 1. Agricultural: total 16.5 17 22-24 5-7 5-7 2. Processing of agri. products 2.9 3 4- 5 1-2 6-10 3. Mining and Metallurgy 10.3 12 15-16 3-4 5-6 4. Industry (inc. construction) 8.4 10 19-21 9-11 14-16 5. Total 1 to 4 38.1 42 60-66 18-24 --r:9 6. Rest of the economy 21.5 24 30-32 6-8 5-6 7. Gross national product 59.6 66 90-98 24-32 7-9 IT. By expenditure 1. Consumption: total 49.4 2. Gross fixed capi. formation 14.3 (10) 19-28 19-18 14-22 3. Other items -4.1 Ill. Foreign trade 1. Exports 20.7 2. Imports 18.0 Consumption goods 5.5 Primary and semi-fin. prod. 5.6 Capital goods 6.4 5 9-13 4-8 Note; All estimates for 1964, 1969 and percentages ar rounded to the nearest digit. For details on methods of estimation see the text of the Draft Outline.

Investment Requirements areas from which the resources for financing the investment programme of the First Five-Year Plan In order to raise output from frs. 66 billion might be drawn. to frs. 98 billion (in 1958 prices) the capital require­ These estimates suggested that domestic re­ ments. were estimated to range from frs. 72 to 96 bil­ sources would fall short of requirements by frs. 20 lion or an annual average of frs. 14.4 to 19.2 billion. billion if the 7 per cent rate of growth were to be at­ In comparison, it may be pointed out that the tained, and by frs. 33 billion if the 9 per cent rate of annual average for the period 1950 to 1954 was growth were to be attained. The gap amounted to about frs. 13 billion. But the level of output at that a little over one-fourth of total capital formation time was about one-half of the estimate for 1964, for the low growth rate and to one-third for the so that the investment then represented a much high one. As an annual average, it wouid come higher level of effort than proposed here. to frs. 4 to 6.5 billion (or US $ 82 to 130) - that Owing to a high level of development of the is, not much different from the annual expenditure corporate sector in the country, there was a certain (military and civil) recently incurred by the United amount of automaticity in the formation of domestic Nations for the Congo. A far-sighted policy in seek­ savings. Unlike in other developing countries, a ing external assistance was needed to obtain this preponderant part of the gross savings in the Congo level of foreign aid. arose from highly organized sources. Depreciation provisions and corporate savings each accounted for almost one-tenth of the gross national product. Main Lines of Future Work These together formed as high as 70 per cent of the gross domestic savings, and some 20 per cent of The Draft Outline suggested the broad lines the gross national product. The average level of along which various sectors of the economy could total domestic savings in most African countries, develop. It was to be considered merely as a begin­ the outline indicated in comparison, ranged between ning, like the first faltering steps of an infant learning almost 0 to 8 per cent. to walk, of a process which can neither be skipped An important element in the policy for mobili­ nor substituted_ The next step in the complex process zation of domestic resources would be to make of planning is to begin the technical work of prepar­ sure that these savings were not diverted away from ing feasibility studies fo1 an adequate number of investment. The Draft Outline indicated the various projects within the broad framework of the Out-

- 82- line. Detailed information about unit 1 osts of out­ pendices. Appendix A lists a number of projects put, sources and supplies of raw materials, level in the field of energy, mining and manufacturing and distribution of output, and possible location which have been suggested or considered during of plants and projects would be required for this the last dozen years and for which provisional esti­ purpose. Above all, the ways of financing them, mates of imports. possible output, and approximate their implementation and their contribution to investment costs are available; and Appendix B general development would have to be spelled out. shows the details of output (and of trade in some The Draft Outline included two detailed Ap- instances) of over ninety major items in the Congo.

83- Chapter B. Ill.

THE ECONOM.IC DEVELOPMENT OF ZAMBlA

(A Note on the Report ofthe UNJECA/FAO Mission)

Origin and Organization of tbe Mission The final draft of the Report was delivered on 23 June 1964 to the Ministry of Finance, wltich is After the United J(jngdom had decided in responsible for over-all planning. March 1963 that secession wou.d be permitted from the Federation or Rhodesia and Nyasaland, Dr. Kaunda discussed with the Secretary-General's The present position of Zambia Special Representative for East and Central Africa the possibility of a United Nations Mission to carry The Report starts by discussing the weaknesses out an economic survey. The object of survey would of the Zambian economy, and the possibilities opened be to propose guidelines for an economic strategy by the dissolution of the Federation. The economy for Le Government which would take power in is extraordinarily lop-sided, with copper accounting 1964 (when the Federation brok; up) to use as the for more than 90 per cent of the exports, which framework of an integrated development plan. themselves amount to over two-tltirds of the gross domestic product (excluding subsistence output). In response to this request, officials from ECA The lack of development of other sectors has been and FAO visited Lusaka in August 1963 to discuss partly due to the fact that much of the earnings with Ministers of the Government then in power of the copper industry flowed out of the country, the form this Mission might take. In September, as taxes to the Federal Government, as dividends a request was made for United Nations Extended to overseas shareholders and as royalties to the Programme Technical Assistance so that a Mission British South Africa Company. should b:: financed out of contingency funds, with Zambia contributed far more to the Federal ECA and FAO as the executive agencies. The Treasury than she received, partly because the Government were to provide funds-in-trust and Federal Government had responsibilities for Europ­ also the necessary facilities, including a liaison officer. ean education and European agriculture; since The emphasis was put on speed. The Mission in addition the Federal capital, the University and was to be in the field by November, and to complete the Central Bank were all in Salisbury, most of the its work in four months. It actually ~ tarted to arrive Federal Government's expenditure took place in in Lusaka on 23 November, 1963, and the preli­ Southern Rhodesia. Another disadvantage was the minary version of the report was in the Govern­ difficulty of starting industries in Zambia in the ment's hands on March 23, 1964. face of competition from the strong industrial nucleus that already existed in Southern Rhodesia. Thirdly, The Mission staff consisted of 6 members and by the 1960's the deterioration in the political situa­ an administrative officer; in addition, 16 consultants tion had affected confidence overseas, and also made and research officers were assembled in Lusaka it difficult for the Government to get the public's from various parts of the world to stay from 2 to co-operation in development schemes. 16 weeks each and advise the Mission in particular specialist fields. Detailed acknowledgements are At the end of 1963 Zambia left the Federation, made in the report to the guidance of the Cabinet; and later in October 1964 became independent. the help of Ministry officials, United Nations ex­ The country can now take what the Report calls perts and ECA officers; the usefulness of joint dis­ a "surge forward". cussions with other Missions (especially those of But the task is not an easy one; there are serious UNESCO and IBRD on education and transport basic problems to be tackled. The rural sector is need ~); and the basic statistical research carried almost entirely outside the cash economy. Most out at the Central Statistical Office, Salisbury, in of the farming is done simply to provide subsistence the field of national accounts and demography for the farmers' families and techniques are very (mostly prior to the arrival of the Mission). backward.

- 84- Secondly, the workers have had very little but the Report lists more than one hundred new education. The majority of Mricans have never projects that appear feasible in the changed cir­ been to school; less than a thousand had (in 1963) cumstances. The biggest is a plant which would passed a secondary school-leaving examination, and produce substantial quantities of cheap nitrogenous almost certainly fewer than a hundred Africans fertilizers (as well as ammonium nitrate for use have degrees. These figures are very low, even by as an explosive in the mines); most of its output the standards of the African continent. In Ghana could be exported. Also suggested is a steel rolling for example, more students passed school certi­ mill of 75 thousand tons capacity, using an electric ficate in 1937 than in Zambia in 1960. The situation furnace and producing pipes and tubes. Other pro­ so far as high level manpower is concerned is better jects discussed include plants for making glass, than in the Congo in 1960, but not much. bicycles, radios (assembly), industrial rubber belt­ The most pressing social problem is unemploy­ ing, etc. The employment created directly would, ment in the towns. The economy has failed to absorb however, be limited, because of the large scope the growing labour force in the Copperbelt (swollen for raising productivity in existing establishments by a continual influx from the countryside). In fact and the low labour requirements of most new pro­ the number of Africans in paid employment fell jects. every year from 1957 to 1962. Large numbers of Copper output is expected to grow during adolescents are, more or less, permanently out of this period, but the companies believed that, be­ work. cause of mechanization, there would be little change in the employment offered by this industry. Tobacco, beer, confectionery, groundnuts and cotton are Suggested Strategy considered crops with considerable export potentials, The Mission took as their starting point the and there will also be a big expansion of demand objectives of the Government, with the reduction in food in the domestic market. of unemployment as the main one. The target for Service sectors like transport, distribution, etc. gross domestic product was derived from that for are essentially passive - they will expand if the employment. It suggested a strategy that would economy as a whole is growing, but not otherwise. provide at least 150 thousand more paid jobs for The Mission felt that the case for investing over £20 Africans by 1970 than today but this additional million in a rail link to Tanganyika was not employment will be less than the increase of more yet strong. The Government's position was that than 270 thousand in the gainfully occupied popula­ political difficulties with neighbouring territories tion between 1964 and 1970. The male population would be resolved by the time steps were taken aged 18 and over alone will increase by 168 thousand to build such a line. On the other hand, the existing during the same interval. lines, of which Zambia is a part owner, have sufficient The structure of the economy which would be capacity to carry copper and other bulk cargoes needed in 1970 was sketched out by a system of likely to arise in the foreseeable future. projections, to ensure that proposals in each field Altogether the programme implies a growth (e.g. agriculture, energy, public finance, etc.) would of 6 per cent a year in the gross domestic product. be mutually consistent. The projections show that if employment is to be created at a fast enough rate, some sectors Manpower Implications will have to increase very rapidly indeed. A rapid expansion in construction would have to take place. If economic development at this pace is to be This sector has recently been depressed by bad achieved, the number of expatriates needed in 1970 economic conditions and, as economic conditions will be more, not less, than today. Fewer will be have improved, house-building in particular can needed in the mines, but more in industry and govern­ rise sharply. This is in fact already happening. ment service. The acute shortage of high-level man­ power will continue for many years. This is un­ As a result of the educational programme and avoidable whatever policy measures are taken, adoption of planning, a big increase in employment because the output of secondary schools in the years is also expected in government service. Apart from immediately ahead is virtually completely deter­ their direct contributions, expansion of construction mined by the number already attending them. The and government services will help raise employment Mission drew the conclusion that the scarcest res­ and incomes. These sectors can thus spearhead the source in the next five years would be qualified initial advance. Mricans. This resource has, therefore, to be bus­ Industry is another sector which is expected banded very carefully if the pace of development to grow rapidly, now that it can be given protec­ indicated were to be achieved, which in its turn, tion, though its fastest growth probably will come implies the need for control on those going overseas in two or three years' time. There is at present quite on scholarships, and also for some system of allocat­ considerable spare capacity in existing projects ing qualified men.

-85- Special short-term training centres for industry Mission suggests that the Government should obtain are suggested to provide semi-skilled workers on an understanding from the companies on the rate the required scale. For agriculture, the Mission at which capacity would be expanded, with a target felt that modernization of this sector could only of 875 thousand short tons for 1970. An analysis be achieved if the graduates available were used, of the trend in world demand suggests that this not to help individual farmers but to train lower­ amount should be saleable in that year (compared level officers, especially crop and livestock demons­ to a probable figure of about 700 thousand short trators, who would go out to the villages and help tons in 1964). There should also be an agreement the ordinary cultivator improve his system of on the rate of Africanization, so that the process farming. would be virtually complete, including professional The longer-run solution must lie in a rapid and managerial jobs, by 1980. In return the Govern­ expansion of higher education. The Mission support­ ment would agree not to nationalize the companies ed the proposals of the Lockwood Commission or to raise taxes on them above a certain level, and for a University (particularly its suggestion that also undertake to consult them on matters of com­ entrants with 0-level certificates should be accepted), mon concern, such as the operation of exchange but suggested in addition the establishment of a control. The possibility of the Government holding faculty of mining, not merely to meet Zambia's shares in the companies has also been discussed. own requirements but to train mining engineers On copper prices, the Mission's view is that, from all over the continent. A faculty of develop­ because of the harmful effect of the sharp fluctua­ ment sciences (economics, agriculture, modern Afri­ tions which still continue on copper's competitive can history, etc.) is also recommended to help pre­ position, the Government should approach other pare the large numbers who will be needed in various producing Governments to establish a joint stabili­ parts of the economy as it develops. zation scheme. The copper companies themselves would spend over £100. million gross on mine development as Financial Needs their part of the investment programme. The ex­ pected rise in copper sales would enable this amount The Mission concluded that investment had to be financed out of undistributed profits. Heavy to grow rapidly. The output of copper is expected investment in manufacturing by foreign companies to level off in the I 970's, so new dynamic areas is also expected because of the new possibilities have to be created. Very roughly $450 million of which have been opened up. Investment in service gross capital investment will be required al ogether in the six years 1965 to 1970. This seems a large industries would be induced by the expansion of sum but it should be manageable. This sum, in fact, productive sectors. represented, in the first place, the amount which Despite the size of this programme, it is estimat­ would be needed to create the necessary expansion ed that on balance Zambia will not need to borrow of demand; it was then checked against the total abroad. Because of the basic strength of her balance investment needs of various sectors and lastly against of payments position, the inflow of private capital the savings likely to arise. The figure mentioned should about match the outflow of funds to repay satisfies all three tests. maturing debts in this period (or buy back Zambian About one-third would be Government in­ bonds on the London market). vestment. Together with the rising current expendi­ The new currency is expected to get off to a ture, it would be very largely financed by Govern­ good start. There are already high reserves to back ment revenues from copper. (The essence of the it, and a second line of defence is provided by the development programme is to use copper revenues overseas holdings of commercial banks operating to develop other sectors). In the first place. copper in the country. In addition, surpluses in the balance revenues which previously flowed to the Federal of payments can be expected in the early years of Government will now be available to Zambia. Independence. The Zambian currency may thus Secondly, it is assumed that an independent govern­ be one of the strongest in Africa. ment will try to arrive at a reasonable solution of the problem raised by an annual outflow of £5. million or more a year in royalties to the company Price Stability which mines no copper, but simply holds mineral rights under an agreement made in 1923 with the The Mission proposes a "wage freeze" for United Kingdom. Thirdly, it is suggested that taxes two years, and a "salary freeze" in the Government on the copper producing companies, which at present for several years. Recently wages have been rising pay 40 per cent of their net profits to the govern­ at a fast rate, and if this continued, the programme ment could be raised. of industrialization and of developing agricultural Lastly, it is expected that copper output will exports would be severely hampered, and the achie­ continue to rise and prices will remain firm. The vement of employment targets may become im-

-86- possible. The Government could play a bigger part tries, ~as has happened elsewhere in Africa) and in wage negotiations, a central body being establish­ the resulting waste of financial and technical aid ed to hy down criteria for a rational wage structure, on non-priority projects, the Mission suggests the and it should expect the co-operation of trade unions establishment of a Development Aid Council. The in the country's development programme. In return, Government could put its total requirements be­ it should consult trade unions on matters of econo­ fore representatives of international and bilateral mic policy and help them financially to develop agencies at the meetings of this council; other ap­ social amenities. proaches would be prohibited. While general price control is not recommended, The main immediate technical assistance re­ partly because of the burden it means for the ad­ quirements are indicated in the Report, with details ministration, the need is envisaged for establishing of the qualifications each post will need on the part or tightening controls on key items, including build­ of the expert. The largest numbers of experts will ing materials. be required in the fields of agriculture and education. Increased participation of citizens, including a strong measure of Africanization of the Adminis­ Administrative Needs tration, are needed not only to improve the prospects of political stability, but also to mobilize popular The Mission suggests the setting up of a central support for the immense task of development. The planning office, assisted by a manpow.::r planning Report deals with a number of other ways in which unit. The office would draw up a plan for the year the "will to develop" can be strengthened. This, 1965 (a year when there may be dangers of excessive for example, would be the main immediate econo­ loading of the economy), and another one for the mic significance of universal primary education period 1966-70, against the background of a rough for the age group 8-11, using double shift teaching perspective plan extending to 1980 and beyond. (to be achieved in 1966). The Mission recognized that by 1970, although Particular attention is paid to the rural popula­ one of the main problems, unemployment, would tion, since a big effort will be required of it. Included not be mitigated, a start would have been made in the programme is an acceleration of well-digging; on the others, viz. raising the educational level of the construction of feeder roads and the surfacing the labour force and commercializing agriculture. of roads leading off the rail road; the construction The time these would require implies the need for of small electrical generating plants for country ·1 longer view. towns; the supply of roofs to villages to improve A Manpower Advisory Board is proposed. the rural housing; and the extension of subsidy It is to lay down the general principles for :Jarrying to the mass production of radios and bicycles aimed out Cabinet policy on recruitment, Africanization, primarily at satisfying the needs of the country award of scholarships and rationing of high-level districts. manpower. There would also be planning officers It is suggested that under the Plan there should or small planning units in each Ministry. be each year some over-riding priority, such as To avoid the danger that individual arrange­ rural development or education. This will keep ments may be made between aid agencies and Minis- people'~ attention on development.

? -87- ANNEX I

to Chapter B.J.

Coverage of population censuses and sample surveys conducted in the period 1955·62

Population Territory Coverage Date(s) Type enumerated

ALGERIA 1-Il & 15-IX-1960 ANGOLA Indigenous population 30j31-XII.60 c d.f. Non-indigenous population 30/31-XII.60 c d.f. & d.j. BASUTOLAND Indigenous population 8/9 IV.56 c d.f. & d.j. BBCHUANALAND Indigenous population8 8. IV. 56 S ?b d.j. * Non-indigenous population 3. X. 56 Unknown Unknown CAMEROON Indigenous population Town of Douala 1955 to 56 c Not stated * Town of Edea 1956 c Unknown Subdivision of M'balmayo V to XI. 56 c Not stated Town of Yaounde 1957 c Not stated Town of Ebolowa I.III to c d.f. & d.j. 10. IV. 58 North Cameroon division excluding arrondissements Ill to IV. 60 s d.f. & d.j. of Poli and Rey-Bouba Remainder of N. Cameroon Plus Dept. of Adamaoua IV to VIII.61 a s d.f. & d. j. East and Central divisions * of East Cameroon 1962 s d.f. & d.j. Area not covered Western division of East Cameroon West Cameroon region (formerly United Nations Trust Territory of Southern Cameroon) Non-Indigenous population * Total East Cameroon 15.1.57 c d.j. Area not covered West Cameroon Indigenous population * Town of Doume ? 1956 c Unknown * Town of Bafoussam ? 1957 c Unknown • Town of Eseka ? 1958 c Unknown * Town of Yaounde Ill to XII-1962 c d.f. & d.j. CENTRAL AFRICAN Indigenous population REPUBLIC Town of Bangui XI to XII.55 c c Town of Bambari I to 11.1959 c d.f. & d.j. Central Oubangui 6.:VII to s d.f. & d.j. IO.XI.59 8 West Oubangui 19608 s d.f. & d.j. * Towns of Fort-Sibut Fort Crampel and Dekoa 11 1959 c Unknown

- 88 - ANNEX I (Cont'd)

Coverage of population censuses and sample surveys conducted in tbe period 1955-62

Population Territory Coverage Date(s) Type enumerated -··------···· ·-- - - Area not yet covered East Oubangui Non-indigenous population 17.XlJ.56 c d.f. & d.j. CHAD Total population * Town of Fort-Lamy ? 1962 c d.f. & d.j. COMORO ISLANDS 1958 c d.f. Total population 1958 s d.f. CONGO (BRAZZAVILLE) Indigenous population * Town of Pointe-Noire 1958 c d.f. & d.j. * Town of Brazzaville 1961 c d.f. & d.j. Town of Dolisie VIII to XI.60 c d.f. & d.j. Remainder of Congo (Brazzaville) VIII to XI.60 s d.f. & d.j. * District of Kibangou ? 1958 s Unknown Non-indigenous population 17.XII.56 c d.f. & d.j. CONGO (LEOPOLDVILLE) Indigenous population Whole territory Vl.55 to XII.57• s d.f. & d.j. * Non-indigenous population 31.58 c Unknown DAHOMEY Indigenous population Total territory except Canton of Tchi 25.V to Towns of Abomey and 30.IX.61 s d.f. & d.j. Bohicon

Non-indigenous population 12.XU.56 c d.f. & d.j. ETHIOPIA Total population of 10/fl. IX.60 c d.f. & d.j. Municipality of Addis Ababa IX.60 s d.j. GABON Total population 1960 to 61 c d.f. & d.j. 1960 to 61 s d.f. & d.j. G HANA Total population 20.III.60 c d.f. VI.60 s d.f. GUINEA Indigenous population 15.1 to 3I.V.55 s d.f. & d.j. Total population of * Town of Conakry 2nd quarter 1958 JC Unknown * District of Koukoure ? 1957 l s d.f. & d.j. IVORY COAST Total population 20.VIII to c d.f. & d.j. Town of Abidjan 25.IX.55 s * Regions of Man Korhogo and Bouake ? 1962 s d.f. & d.j. Indigenous population Town of Agboville 1956 c d.f. & d.j. Town of Abengourou 1957 c d.f. & d.j. Town of Dimbokro 1957 c d.f. & d.j. Town of Man 1957 c d.f. & d.j. Town of Bouake VII to VIII.58 c d.f. & d.j. Rural areas XI.57 to XI.58 s d.f. & d.j. Non-indigenous population 12.XII.56 c d.f. & d.j.

-89- ANNEX I (Cont'd)

Coverage of population censuses and sample surveys conducted in the period 1955-62

Population Territory Coverage Da.te(s) Type enumerated ------·------·---·-----··- - ···- - ··-- ·------KENYA Indigenous population Rural areas exluding 15 to 16.Vlll.62 c d.f. Northern Province IX.62 s d.f. Northern Province Towns VII to Vlli.62 c d.f. Rural areas VII to Vlll.62 C & Sb d.j. Non-indigenous population Urban areas and plots of under 20 acres in the scheduled areas 15 to 16. Vlll.62 c d.f. LIBERIA 2J V.62 c d.f. & d.j. Total population ?.62 s MADAGASCAR Total population * Province of Tananarive ? 1957 c d.j. * Province of Majungo ? 1962 c d.j. * 6 Urban Centres ? 1960 c d.f. & d.j. * 5 secondary towns ? 1962 c d.f. & d.j. MALl Indigenous population Office du N iger and Subdivisions of 1V.57 to ?.58 s d.f. & d.j. Mopti, Macina and Djenne Total population Remainder of territory 15.VI.60 to V.6)a s d.f. & d.j. * Town of Pouak.o ? 1958 c d.f. & d.j. Non-indigenous population 12.XII.56 c d.f. & d.j. MAURITANIA Total population * Towns ? 1961 c d.f. & d.j. MAU RITIUS and dependencies Total population 30.VI to I. VII.62 c d.f. MOROCCO Total population Whole territory l8.Vf.60 c d.f. & d.j. Indigenous population Rural areas Vl.60 s d.f. & d.j. MOZAMBIQUE Total population Indigenous and Non­ indigenous separately 15.1X.60 NIGER Indigenous population Excluding town of Niamey X.59 to IlL60• s d.f. & d.j. * Town of Niamey IV.l959 c U nknown Non-indigenous population 12.XII.56 c d.f. & d.j. NIGERIA Total population .13.V.62 c d.f. ? s RHODESIA and NY ASALAND Non-indigenous population former Federation of and Employees of Non- indigenous 26.IX.6l c d.f.

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Coverage of population censuses and sample surveys conducted in the· period 1955-62 Population Territory Coverage Date enumerated ZAMBIA ( Indigenous population­ MALAWI\ censuses planned for 1963 RHODESIA Indigenous population IO.IV to 20.V.62 c d.f. ST. HELENA and * Total population 2l.X.56 c d.f. ASCENSION ISLANDS SENEGAL Total population Whole territory IV.60 to ?.61 s d.f. & d.j. Town of Dakar IV to V 1955 c d.f. & d.j. Vallee du Senegald IV to XI 1957 s d.f. & d.j. SEYCHELLES Total population 4.V.60 c d.j. SOUTH AFRICA Total population Indigenous and Non-indigenous 6.IX.60 c d.f. separately SOUTH WEST AFRICA As for South Africa SUDAN Total population 68 Towns VII.SS to d.j. Rural areas VIII.56 ~} SWAZILAND Total population VII to VIIL56 c d.f. TANGANYIKA Indigenous population Whole territory 18 to 19.VIII.57 c d.f. Rural areas IX. 57 s d.f. Non-Indigenous population 20 to 21.III.57 c d.f. & d.j. TOGO Total population X.58 to XIL60 c d.f. & d.j. * 1961 s Unknown * Town of Palimc ? 1957 c d.f. & d.j. TUNISIA Total population 1.11. 56 c d.j. UGANDA Indigenous population 18 to 19.VIII.59 c d.f. IX.59 s d.f. Non-indigenous population 25 to 26.III.59 c d.f. & d.j. UAR (EGYPT) Total population 20 to 21 IX.60 c d.f. UPPER VOLTA Total population Whole territory excluding 30.1X.60 to s d.f. & d.j. towns of Ouagadougou and 22.IV.61 Bobo-Dioulasso Town of Ougadougou IV to XI.61 c d.f. & d.j. ZANZIPAR and PEMBA Total population 19 to 20.1II.58 c d.f. & d.j. Source: ECA, "Methods and Problems of African Population Censuses and Surveys, 1955-62", Third Conference of African Statisticians, Addis Ababa, 1963, E/CN.l4/CAS.3/3. ----- .. Asterisks mark the operations for which documentation is inadequate for detailed analysis. C = Census, S sample, d.f. de facto, d.j. de jure. a These surveys exclude certain population groups: Cameroon: Nomadic Bororos Central African Republic: 15,000 Bororos and Balingas Congo (Leopo1dville): 65,000 persons in 4 areas, 2 of them military Mali: 209,000 Nomads Niger: 200,000 Nomads in Agades, Tahoua and Northern part of Maradi, Goure, Zinder and M'Guigmi. b In the rural areas of the Northern Province of Kenya, dispersion of settlement and nomadism led to ad hoc measures; in some sections the headman gave details of tax-payers and their dependants, in others samples were drawn to obtain raising factors to be applied to the number of tax-paying males. c It is not clear what procedure, if any, was adopted for temporary absentees; the intention appears to have been to establish the de jure population and also the number of temporary residents as a separate group. d Includes part of Mauritania.

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