University of Oklahoma Graduate College

UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA GRADUATE COLLEGE Free College for Whom? How Policy Design and Public Management Shape Program Access and Success A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE FACULTY in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY By Elizabeth Bell Norman, Oklahoma 2019 Free College for Whom? How Politics, Policy Design, and Public Management Shapes Program Access and Success A DISSERTATION APPROVED FOR THE DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE BY Dr. Alisa Hicklin-Fryar Dr. Deven Carlson Dr. Samuel Workman Dr. Abhisekh Ghosh Moulick Dr. Gregg Garn © Copyright by Elizabeth Bell 2019 All Rights Reserved iv Acknowledgements This project would not have been possible without all of the support and encouragement from so many people. Without my advisers, Deven Carlson and Alisa Fryar, I would have not even gone to graduate school and certainly wouldn’t have been able to produce this dissertation project. Deven demonstrated what it means to do rigorous research that has a real impact on policy and dedicated countless hours to patiently and expertly guiding me as I struggled with concepts, methods, and mastering the art of writing well. When others looked down on my work for being too “applied”, Deven encouraged me to use my passion and skill to strike the balance between theoretical rigor with policy relevance—something that shines through in this dissertation project. If I can become a scholar akin to him, it would be one of my greatest accomplishments. More than anything, though, I will never forget the lessons about the delicate balance between the love of family and hard work. Deven’s family will always be very special to me—I will never forget all of the fun Lila, Natalie and I had at the Center and I will never forget the kindness and generosity of Nina. Much of the same goes for Alisa, who has been my own personal mascot and cheerleader throughout graduate school. Alisa constantly reminded me that I am not an imposter in this profession and that what I have to say matters. I am so thankful that I met Alisa serendipitously in D.C. and got the opportunity to work with her. I can never thank Alisa and Deven enough for generously opening their doors for me anytime I needed it. I will also never forget what gave me the passion to write this dissertation in the first place. As a child I witnessed the transformative power of higher education in my family and I also saw so many families that were unable to access college, not because of a lack of ability or desire but because it was simply too expensive. I was only able to attend college thanks to the many sacrifices of my parents, Mary and Jeffery Bell, who took on debt for me without a second glance and have empowered me in everything I do. Every day I carry their unconditional love and support with me as I fight for a world in which every child, no matter their socioeconomic status or racial/ethnic identity can access quality educational opportunities. I also am grateful to my partner, Matthew Jacobson, who probably deserves an honorary degree in political science for how many times he has intently listened to my preliminary ideas, edited my works in progress, and listened to my final presentations. Thanks also goes to Breena Robinson, my soul sister, best friend, and partner in crime. Thank you for reminding me to keep my head up and balance self-care with the pursuit of my dreams. I also want to thank my loving family, including my brothers James and Charles, and my many aunts, uncles and cousins who have always been my biggest fans and supporters! Thanks also to my grad school comrades Tracey Bark, Wesley Wehde, Lauren Reinke, Gloria Noble, Ani Ter-Mkrtchyan, Tyler and Krystal Camarrilo, and Jungwha Choi, who have been constant companions throughout my time at OU. Writing a dissertation was much sweeter thanks to all of your love and support. v Finally, this project also wouldn’t have been possible without the hard work and dedication of my research partner and friend Kylie Smith. Kylie is a coauthor on Chapter 4 in which she conducted the qualitative analysis and weaved the narratives of high school counselors into the paper. She also facilitated access to the data, with the help of Bryce and his Oklahoma’s Promise team at OSRHE and Gayle in the data division at OSRHE. I am so grateful to have worked with passionate practitioners who work every day to make college more affordable and accessible to the students in Oklahoma. vi Table of Contents List of Figures ............................................................................................................................... vii List of Tables ................................................................................................................................. ix Abstract ............................................................................................................................................1 Chapter 1: A Holistic Policy Design Framework ............................................................................2 Chapter 2: Applying the Holistic Policy Design Framework to the Study of College Affordability and College Promise Policies .........................................................................................................34 Chapter 3: The Politics of Designing Tuition-Free College: How Socially Constructed Target Populations Impact Policy Support ................................................................................................54 Chapter 4: Perspectives from the Front-line: Street-Level Bureaucrats, Administrative Burden, and Access to Oklahoma’s Promise ...............................................................................................90 Chapter 5: How Policy Design Shapes Beneficiary Populations and Student Outcomes: An Examination of Tuition-free College Programs in Oklahoma .....................................................135 Chapter 6: Conclusion..................................................................................................................195 References ....................................................................................................................................199 vii List of Figures Figure 1-1. Policy Design Framework .............................................................................................4 Figure 1-2. Policy Design in Policy Evaluation Studies ..................................................................9 Figure 1-3. Policy Design in Policy Process Scholarship ..............................................................17 Figure 1-4. Policy Design in Public Administration ......................................................................25 Figure 2-1. Policy Design Framework Applied to College Promise Policies................................51 Figure 3-1. The Political Pathway: How Politics Shapes Statutory Designs .................................54 Figure 3-2. Multiple Streams Model of Merit-Based Scholarship Criteria Determination ...........61 Figure 3-3. Tuition-free Community College Policy Support Distributions, by Randomly Assigned Target Population ...........................................................................................................75 Figure 4-1. The Administrative Pathway: How Statutory Designs are Translated in the Implementation Process to Impact Outcomes................................................................................90 Figure 4-2. Variation Across High Schools in the Proportion of Students Receiving the Oklahoma’s Promise Scholarship ................................................................................................106 Figure 5-1. The Instrumental Pathway: How Statutory Designs Impact Outcomes ....................134 Figure 5-2. Change in Enrollment Before and After Implementation of Tuition-free College ...140 Figure 5-3. Changes in Student Population at Tulsa Community College ..................................142 Figure 5-4. Changes in Student Population at Oklahoma City Community College ..................144 Figure 5-5. Changes in Student Population at Rose State College ..............................................145 viii Figure 5-6. Theoretical Model of Mechanisms by which Promise Programs impact K-12 and Postsecondary Outcomes .............................................................................................................160 Figure 5-7. Major Demographic Changes, by Cohort .................................................................164 Figure 5-8. Proportion of Students Receiving Tulsa Achieves, by Distance from High School GPA Threshold ............................................................................................................................168 Figure 5-9. Distribution of Students by Distance from High School GPA Eligibility Threshold ......................................................................................................................................................169 Figure 5-10. Mean of Significant Outcomes of Interest, by Distance from Threshold ...............177 Figure 5-11. Event-Study Figures for the Effect of Tulsa Achieves Eligibility on Student Outcomes (ITT) ................................................................................................................... 183-184 Figure 5-A1. Observable Characteristics near the Threshold ......................................................190 Figure 6-1. Policy Design Framework Applied to College Promise Policies..............................195

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