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ICIS Base Oils & Lubricants 2017 Publication prepared by For the 21st ICIS Global Base & Lubricants Conference 15-17 February 2017 | London, UK ICIS Base Oils & Lubricants 2017 MARKETS IN TRANSITION GLOBAL TRENDS POSE INDUSTRY CHALLENGES Low oil prices, overcapacity, new standards and sustainability keep producers on their toes FEBRUARY 2017 COMMENTARY JOHN BAKER LONDON [email protected] “The impact on ome years can seem much longer than others. Some, on the other hand, markets has been appear to fly by. Perhaps 2016 was one of the latter – with markets relatively steady S and with most issues largely under control, or at least recognised and understood. variable, with local There is no doubt, though, that the base oils industry is working through a period of factors determining... transition, just as discussed in this Commentary in the 2016 issue of this publication. material availability And indeed, “markets in transition” is the theme of this year’s 21st Global Base Oils and demand... and & Lubricants Conference being held as usual in London. Speakers and delegates will the pace of transition be exploring the drivers for change and coming away with a more informed and, hope- between grades” fully, certain view of where the sector is heading. The low oil price and sluggish growth in base oils demand and for national econo- mies are a continuing backdrop to what is happening. On top of this are overlaid the shift to lower viscosity engine oils, increasing capacities for premium Group II prod- ucts, and rationalisation by and amongst producers and blenders and formulators, through plant closures and M&A activity. The impact on markets has been variable, with local factors determining not only material availability and demand, and hence pricing trends, but also the pace of transi- tion between grades. In many regions of the globe, as we report in a series of regional market reviews begin- ning on page 18, price ideas are firming as we enter 2017, but not on any underlying improvement in demand, which remains flat if not slightly negative, especially in the more developed economies. And indeed, in some grades, where supply is longer at present, we are seeing some softness, in brightstock in Europe, for example, and Group III in Asia. All of which promises to make the ICIS base oils event a fascinating one, as industry experts seek to make sense of it all for delegates. I hope you find this publication informative and that you enjoy the conference if you are attending it. TRANSITION TIME FOR growing, with potentially big impacts on GLOBAL BASE OILS base oil usage in the automotive sector 4 A number of factors are coming together Editor +1 212 791 4251 to change the landscape for producers BRIGHTSTOCK SUPPLY John Baker [email protected] EASES IN EUROPE +44 20 8652 3153 Europe, Middle East and 18 Despite recent plant closures, product is [email protected] Asia sales manager RUSSIAN LUBE OILS Contributors ARE ON THE RISE readily available, causing prices to soften Cynthia Challener, Cuckoo John Hill James, Jasmine Khoo, +44 20 8652 3893 8 Refiners are investing to add higher value Veena Pathare, Whitney [email protected] products to their production slates CRUDE OIL PRICE RISE Shi, Judith Taylor and SUPPORTS US HIKES EMEA sales executive Sarah Trinder Tom Iredale ENGINE OIL VISCOSITIES 21 The year has started with upwards price Production and design +44 20 8652 3812 CONTINUE TO HEAD LOWER adjustments across the US market Rachel Warner, Terence [email protected] 11 Fuel economy and reduced emissions are Burke, Monica Lugo and Ethel Ong Managing director, ICIS driving the shift to thinner engine oils Rob Kolkman MIDDLE EAST GROUP II Americas sales manager SET TO EXPAND Bernard Petersen Printing Newman Thomson CHEVRON MARKS 10 YEARS +1 646 961 0708 Front cover Getty Images 23 New production and rising car sales in the [email protected] ICIS, The Quadrant, Sutton, WITH GROUP II IN EUROPE region will see Group II more widely used Americas sales executive Surrey SM2 5AS, UK 15 The US company has built its presence in Karen Yaniro www.icis.com the market with an effective supply chain TIGHT SUPPLY GIVES FIRM ©2017 by Reed Business Information. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reprinted, or reproduced or utilized in any form or by ASIAN PRICING electronic, mechanical or other means, now known or hereafter invented, 25 A heavy maintenance programme in Asia including photocopying and recording or in any information storage and THE FUTURE IS ELECTRIC! retrieval system without prior permission in writing from the publisher. 17 Sales of electric and hybrid vehicle are has supported year-end prices www.icis.com February 2017 | Base Oils Supplement | 3 BASE OILS 2017 SECTOR OVERVIEW Jeff Tzu-chao Lin/imageBROKER/REX/Shutterstock Time of transition for global base oils Lower crude oil prices, overcapacity, the shift to premium base oils and consolidation in the market are all impacting base oil producers around the globe CYNTHIA CHALLENER VERMONT, US oil prices in 2017 may exacerbate some of than expected rates of expansion in countries these trends. And last, but not least, sustaina- like China, India, Brazil and Russia. he theme of this year’s ICIS World bility has also entered the mindset of the In 2017, whether or not any overall growth Base Oils & Lubricants conference is European lubricants industry. is seen will once again depend on these “Markets in transition” – and for a Overall, global demand for base oils and emerging economies, according to Valentina good reason. It is not just market fun- finished lubricants was flat in 2016 com- Serra-Holm, marketing and technology direc- T damentals that are shifting. pared to 2015, according to several different tor for naphthenics with Nynas. The geographic distribution of production industry experts. In mature economies (the facilities is also changing rapidly due to ongo- US and EU), demand actually declined OVERSUPPLY IN THE MARKET ing investments in new capacity despite an slightly due to ongoing efforts to increase This flat growth in demand is occurring at a oversupply situation. performance and efficiency and thus reduce time when base oils are in a 5m tonne/year Mergers and acquisitions across the supply the need for lubricants. “oversupply” position, according to Geeta chain – among base oil manufacturers, While slight growth in demand in emerg- Agashe, president of Geeta Agashe & Associ- lubricant producers and distributors – are also ing economies balanced these losses, the ates. This is despite five recent closures and changing the market landscape. Higher crude overall market remained flat due to lower has resulted in an average plant capacity utili- 4 | Base Oils Supplement | February 2017 www.icis.com BASE OILS 2017 SECTOR OVERVIEW sation rate of around 70%. Looking at the numbers, API Group I previ- tonne/year of Group I disappearing in the next Looking at specific base ously represented the majority of capacity, two to three years. As a result, all of the leading oil groups, the shift away but today accounts for just 41%, while there economies are actively pursuing the shift away from Group I to Group II/III have been significant increases in API Groups from Group I base oils,” she states. continued in 2016, even in II (34%) and III (13%), as well as re-refining China. “The base oil mar- capacity, according to Outhwaite. Indeed, a LOW GROUP II PRICES ket continues to be total of 36,000 barrels/day (1.8m tonnes/year) One result of this shift, however, has been from of Group I capacity was lost in 2016 alone, a technical demand standpoint the under- “These changes in regional according to Serra-Holm, and she expects fur- supply of Group I base oils, particularly in the base oil capacities and local ther rationalisation, including significant high viscosities, according to Agashe. On the reductions in Group I capacity in Japan in other hand, Group II and III base oils are over- demand are creating new 2017, with more to come in Europe as well. supplied, particularly in the low viscosity dynamics in the global market” “This trend toward higher-quality base oils grades. “Group II base oils are in fact being is also being increasingly observed in emerging used in applications that could in theory be ALAN OUTHWAITE Manager, base oil business development Europe, economies. India has expressed interest in formulated using Group I, because currently Chevron Lubricants adopting European-like emissions legislation Group II base oils are sold at lower or similar that will drive the shift. China is already mov- prices in many geographies, as compared to ing to Group II base oils, and in Russia several Group I’s,” she comments. Meanwhile, naph- very dynamic,” says Alan Outhwaite, man- producers have announced capacity upgrades thenics and poly-alphaolefins (PAOs) are bal- ager of base oil business development in from Group I to Group II, with around 600,000 anced currently on a global basis. ❯❯ Europe for Chevron Lubricants. “Whilst over- all capacity has increased, there is a signifi- SUSTAINABILITY CYNTHIA CHALLENER VERMONT, US cant shift in the ratio of produced API groups driven by the demand for premium base oils EU LUBRICANT MAKERS DRAW UP STANDARDS required to meet increasingly stringent lubri- SUSTAINABILITY IS another issues that are unique to our all aspects of a lubricant pro- cant specifications,” he adds. area that the lubricant industry industry. It is important that the ducer’s business, according to In addition to evolving specifications as a is finally beginning to address, lubricants industry develops a Gosalia. “Number one is the driver for increased use of premium base oils, most notably in Europe.
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