Choosing Presidential Candidates How Good Ls the New Way?

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Choosing Presidential Candidates How Good Ls the New Way? AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE AEIFORUMS Choosing Presidential Candidates How Good ls the New Way? John Charles Daly, moderator Ken Bode · David S. Broder Austin Ranney Richard M. Scammon The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, established in 1943, is a nonpartisan, nonprofit research and educational organization supported by foundations, corporations, and the public at large. Its purpose is to assist policy makers. scholars, business men and women, the press, and the public by providing objective analysis of national and international issues. Views expressed in the institute's publications are those of the authors and do not necessarily renect the views of the staff. advisorypa nels, officers. or trustees of AEI. Council of Academic Advisers Paul W. McCracken, Chairman, Edmund E:ra Day Universiry Professor of Business Atlmin­ isrration, University of Michigan *Kenneth W. Dam, HaroldJ . and Marion F Green Professor of Law, University of Chicago Donald C. Hellmann, Professor of Political Science and !111emario11a/ Srudies, University of Washingron f D. Gale Johnson, Eliakim Hastings Moore Distinguished Service Professor o Economics and Chairman, Department of Eco110111ics, Universiry of Chicago Robert A. Nisbet, Atlj1111ct Scholar, American E111e1prise Insriture Herbert Stein, A. Willis Roberrson Professor of Economics Emeritus, University of Virginia Murray L. Weidenbaum, Mallinckrodt Disringuished University Professor and Direcror, Cemer for rhe Srudy of American Business, I..Vashingron U11i1•ersiry James Q. Wilson, Henry Lee Shartuck Professor of Govem111e111, Harvard University *On leave for government service. Executive Committee Richard B. Madden, Chairman of the Board Willard C. Butcher William J. Baroody, Jr., Presidenr Pau I F. Oreffice James G. Affleck Richard D. Wood Tait Trussell, Edward Styles. Direcror of Vice Presidem, M111inisrrario11 Publications Joseph J. Brady. Vice Presidenr, Developmenr Program Directors Periodicals Russell Chapin, Legislarive Analyses AEI Economisr, Herbert Stein, Denis P. Doyle, Educarion Policy Studies Editor AEI Foreign Policy and Defense Review, Marvin Esch, Seminars and Programs Evron M. Kirkpatrick, Robert J. Thomas F. Johnson, Economic Policy Srudies Pranger, and Harold H. Saunders, Edirors Marvin H. Kosters, Public Opinion, Seymour Martin Govemme/11 Regularion Studies Lipset and Ben J. Wattenberg, Jack A. Meyer, Health Policy Srudies Co-Edirors; Everett Carll Ladd, Senior Editor; Karlyn H. Keene, Howard R. Penniman/Austin Ranney. Managing Ediror Polirica/ and Social Processes Regulation, Anne Brunsdale. Robert J. Pranger, Inremarional Programs Managing Ediror Choosing Presidential Candidates HowGood ls the New Way? John Charles Daly, moderator Ken Bode David S. Broder Austin Ranney Richard M. Scammon Held on October 18, 1979 and sponsored by the American EnterpriseInstitute for Public Policy Research Washington, D. C. Publication of this pamphlet is an activity of AEI' s project "A Decade of Study of the Constitution," funded in part by a Bicentennial Chal­ lenge Grant from the National Endowment for the Humanities. This pamphlet contains the edited transcript of one of a series of AEI forums. These forums offer a medium for informal exchanges of ideas on current policy problems of national and international import. As part of AEI' s program of providing opportunities for the presentation of competing views, they serve to enhance the prospect that decisions within our democracy will be based on a more informed public opinion. AEI forums are also available on audio and color-video cassettes. AEI Forum 35 3 S 7 9 10 8 6 4 2 © 1980 by the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Re­ search, Washington, D.C. All rights reserved. No part of this pub­ lication may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without permission in writing fromthe American Enterprise Institute except in the case of brief quotations embodied in news articles, critical articles, or reviews. The views expressed in the publications of the American Enterprise Institute are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the staff, advisory panels, officers, or trustees of AEI. "American Enterprise Institute" and @) are registered service marks of the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research. ISBN 0-8447-2172-7 Library of Congress Catalog Card No. 80-80002 Printed in United States of America JOHN CHARLES DALY, forme, ABC News chief and forum mod­ erator: This public policy forum, part of a series presented by the American Enterprise Institute, is concerned with the process by which we nominate presidential candidates and with the impact of this process on the office of the presidency, the general political system, and, ultimately, on the Constitution of the United States. Before reform and the new way of presidential nominations-­ which may roughly be dated from the McGovern Commission re­ forms adopted within the Democratic party in 1969-the old way involved a mixture of state party caucuses and state primaries. The major role and power, however, was vested in state party leaders and elected officials in the national nominating conventions. They could ignore primary results. In 1952, for example, Estes Kefauver swept all the primaries except one, but the leadership of the Dem­ ocratic convention preferred Adlai Stevenson; Stevenson won the nomination. It was also possible to confound the convention leadership. Astute pressure on delegates and wildly enthusiastic, packed galleries stampeded the 1940 Republican convention to produce a surprise candidate, Wendell Willkie. The new way, on the other hand, championing open access to the presidential nominating process by all interested party members, mandated involvement of women, young people, and minority groups, allocated convention delegates among presidential candi­ dates according to proportional representation-no more winner­ take-all-and ruled out the old practice of reserved delegate seats for party leaders. The reformers believed that these changes would as­ sure that the delegates at the national party convention would fairly reflect voters' preferences. The new process of nominating presidential candidates has pro­ duced significant changes, such as a startling rise in state primaries. In 1968, roughly 40 percent of the delegates to the national conven­ tions were chosen in seventeen primaries. In 1976, 75 percent of the 1 delegates were chosen in thirty state primaries. In 1980, 80 percent of the delegates will be chosen in thirty-five state primaries. The new way, however, has not quieted the call for reform. There are those who urge selection of national convention delegates by regional primaries. Others urge a direct national primary, replacing conventions altogether. That is the granddaddy of all reform pro­ posals, first introduced in the Congress in 1911. Of the 250 bills introduced since 1911 dealing with reform of presidential nomina­ tions, about half have proposed some version of the direct national primary. The subject of this forum, therefore, is, "Choosing Presidential Candidates: How Good Is the New Way?" Mr. Bode, as research director of the original McGovern Commis­ sion in 1969, are you satisfied with the results? KEN BODE, political correspondent, NBC News: By and large, I am, yes. I think that the reforms were essentially a moderate and careful response to a series of abuses that were uncovered in 1968, things that had been going on for a long time. I think, basically, that the reforms have gotten a bad rap. There has been a certain amount of historical revisionism about what the reforms have produced, some of which Mr. Daly just stated, to wit: that they created a large number of primaries. The reforms were carefully and thoughtfully written by party lead­ ers, and they headed off more radical responses, such as direct elec­ tion of the president, eradication of the electoral college, and the national primary legislation that has been in Congress since 1968. The reforms have survived two serious reexaminations by reform commissions of the Democratic party, the Mikulski Commission after the 1972 election, and the Winograd Commission after the 1976 elec­ tion. Neither was disposed to take the reforms as gospel when it met, so I think that the survival of the reforms indicates that they are with us to stay. MR. DALY: Mr. Broder, in your book The Party's Over, you argue that the traditional party role in the United States is diminishing because of the new nominating process. Would you explain briefly how and why? DAVID S. BRODER, political correspondent, Washington Post: In the old way, whoever wanted to run for president of the United States 2 took a couple months off from public office in the year of the presi­ dential election and presented his credentials to the leaders of his party, who were elected officials, party officials, leaders of allied interest groups, and bosses in some cases. These people had known the candidate over a period of time and had carefully examined his work. In the new way, the first thing a candidate does is get out of public officeso he has nothing to do for two, three, four, or, in some cases, six years, except run for president of the United States. The candidate takes his case not to the professionals who know him or to his political peers, but to the amat�urs who meet him only briefly in their living room or in the town hall and have very little basis on which to make that screening. I think the new way has diminished the kind of careful screening that the office of the presidency requires. MR. DALY: Mr. Scammon, as director of the Elections Research Center, are the substantial reforms of the new way enough reform, or would you consider regional or direct national primaries? RICHARD M. SCAMMON, director, Elections Research Center: I don't think it makes much difference as long as a large percentage of the electorate, whether it is the total electorate or not, can vote at least a preference for president, even if they don't elect delegates, and this fact is available to the leadership so they know what they are doing.
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