The Harris Survey
For Release: Thursday AM, August 16th, 1984 1984 no ISSN 0273-1037
REAGAN REGAINS DEFINITE LEAD OVER MONDALE
By Louis Harris
As the Democratic convention faded into past memory, the Olympics took over, and now as the Republican convention approaches, the presidential race has shifted once again. President Reagan now enjoys a clear 54-42 percent lead over Walter Mondale.
Immediately following the successful Democratic convention, the race narrowed sharply, with a previous 8 point Reagan lead dropping to no better than 50-48 percent. With the GOP taking over center stage next week in Dallas, there is every likelihood this current 12 point Reagan lead will hold or increase.
There are three ironies in these latest Harris Survey results, taken by tele phone between August 5th and 9th, among a cross sect~on of 1,287 likely voters nat~onwide:
--First, the wave of patriotiSM that swept the country during the Olymp~cs added 2 points to President Reagan's vote total and took 2 points away from Mondale. W~th the spate of gold medals and the playing of the national anthem absorbing the attentlon of 51 percent of the voters, the criticisms of the president that seemed so effective at the Democratic convention faded from memory and there was a perceptible rallying behind the man in the White House, Ronald Reagan. Among just those who said they were "very ~nterested" in the Olympics, Reagan leads Mondale by a decisive 61-36 percent. More Republicans and independents than Democrats followed the Olympics closely, and when this skew is corrected it m~ght be expected that av~d Olympic fans would have gone for Rea0ar. over Mondale by 57-40 percent. Thus, the Olump~cs' exposure by itself added a full 2 points to the Reagan total and increased his lead by 4 points.
Without the Olympics, the president would have been ahead by 52-44 percent, precisely where he was before the Democrat~c convention.
--Yet another irony lies in the clear evidence that Walter Mondale is scor~ng effectively and has thrown the president on the defensive over the cla~~ that whoever occup~es the White House will have to ra~se taxes next year, if the federal budget deficits are to be brought down. Reagan has a substantial 12 point lead in vote preference, but when asked who would be best in "telling the people the truth about raising taxes," Reagan barely edges Mondale by only a 43-41 percent margin.
As promising as the tax issue may be for Mondale, when the same voters are asked to say who would be better at "inspiring confidence in the Wh~te House," Reagan w~ns geing away by a 57-34 percent margin. Traditionally, such confidence comparisons have proven to be closely correlated with the ultimate outcome of the election.
--The final irony is that in this latest Harris Survey, in a separate pairing for the vice presidency, Geraldine Ferraro trails George Bush by only a 1 point, 49-48 percent margin. Just after the Democratic convention, Ferraro was behind Bush by 50-18 percent. This means that even as Reagan widened his lead over Mondale, Ferraro remained a strong and powerful asset for the Democrats in this election. The nomination of a woman to an office only a heart beat away from the presidency had an electric effect, especially on women and younger voters. Mondale achieved a great deal by choosing the New York Congresswoman.
(over) THE HARRIS SURVEY August 16th, 1984
-2
However, this reading on the standings in the presidential race and in the pairing between Ferraro and Bush does not reflect the decision of Representative Ferraro's husband not to disclose his income tax statement. This is likely to cast a shadow over her candidacy and take some, if not much, of the special appeal she has created away from the Democratic ticket.
Signs of hope for the Democrats that the Reagan-Mondale contests would end in an upset of frontrunner Reagan now appear to be fading, not long after the excitement generated by the Democrats in San Francisco is dying down.
However, 1984 has been the longest political year in our history and much still lies ahead. While President Reagan has a real chance to move out to a lead resembling that of Richard Nixon over George McGovern in 1972, which never changed much straight through election day, now unknown events, mistakes, the debates, and the campaign itself have yet to come. Sweeping generalities and premature conclusions have a way of proving to be sorely mistaken, especially in American politics in the last two decades of the 20th century.
TAB L E S
Between August 5th and 9th, the Harris Survey asked a cross section of 1,287 likely voters nationwide by telephone:
"If you had to choose, who as president could do a better job on (READ EACH ITEM) -- Ronald Reagan the Republican or Walter Mondale the Democrat?"
REAGAN VS. MONDALE ON BASIC ISSUES
Neither Not Reagan Mondale (vol) sure % % % -%
Inspiring confidence in the White House 57 34 3 6
Telllng the people the truth about raising taxes 43 41 9 7
"In the election for president this November, it is between Ronald Reagan for the Republicans and former Vice President Walter Mondale for the Democrats. If you had to choose today, would you vote for Reagan or for Mondale?"
REAGAN VS. MONDALE
Reagan Mondale Not sure % % %
1984 August 54 42 4 July (Post-Convention) 50 48 2 ,July (Pre-Convention) 52 44 4 June 56 41 3 May 54 40 6 April 56 38 6 ~1arch 55 41 4 February 56 40 4 January 51 43 6
1983 December 51 45 4 November 54 42 4 October 50 46 4 September 55 41 4 August 50 45 5 July 49 46 5
(continued) THE HARRIS SURVEY August 16th, 1984
-3
REAGAN VS. MONDALE (CONT. )
Repgan Mondale Not sure % % %
1983 (cont.) June 52 44 5 May 48 47 5 April 49 46 5 March 48 47 5 January 44 53 3
1982 April 48 43 9 March 46 51 3
"Now, if you could vote just for vice president, would you vote for George Bush, the RepublIcan, or Geraldine Ferraro, the Democrat?"
BUSH VS. FERRARO
Late July August (Post-Convention) % %
Bush 49 50 Ferraro 48 48 t'iot sure 3 2
METHODOLOGY
This Harris Survey was conducted by telephone among a cross section of 1,627 eligible voters nationwide, of whom 1,287 appear to be likely voters, within the United States between August 5th and 9th. Figures for age, sex and race were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with theIr actual proportions in the population.
In a sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within plus or minus three percentage points of what they would be if the entire votIng po~ulation had been polled.
This statement conforms to the prInciples of disclosure of the National Council G~ Public Polls.
(CI 1984 World Rights Reserved Tribune Media Services, Inc. 720 ~o. Orange Ave., Orlando, Fla. 32801
842039