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DROPPING RENT to FURTHER BENEFIT OCCUPIERS Senior Associate Director | Research | East China +86 21 6141 3550 Peng.Jiang@Colliers.Com COLLIERS QUARTERLY OFFICE | SHANGHAI | RESEARCH | Q2 2020 | 10 JULY 2020 Peng Jiang DROPPING RENT TO FURTHER BENEFIT OCCUPIERS Senior Associate Director | Research | East China +86 21 6141 3550 [email protected] 2020–24 Annual Avg Insights/recommendations Full Year Annual QOQ / YOY / Growth 2019–24 / Q2 2020 2020 Average End Q2 End 2020 End 2024 > In Q2 2020, the overall Shanghai vacancy rate -4.6% -9.4% -1.2% remained stable, but rents fell 4.6% QOQ. Many occupiers 500 255,000 839,000 Demand Rent RMB 7.94 RMB 7.66 RMB 8.20 chose to renew leases and sq m sq m sq m (psm per day) (psm per day) (psm per day) delay expansion due COVID- 19. The online services and pharma sectors continued to 0.0pps 8.4pps 1.1pps be exceptions. > Landlords: we recommend 0 sq m 2.0 million 1.3 million 19.1% 27.5% 23.8% landlords of new projects to Supply sq m sq m Vacancy offer incentives to secure new tenants. Some new projects delayed their completion to Key demand drivers: Shanghai office market trends (2017-2024F) % of take-up 2021. New supply Net absorption Rent (RHS) Vacancy 30.0% > Occupiers we recommend 27.5% 29.3% relocation or expansion this 2,500 25.9% 9.0 TMT 千 23.8% year with long tenancy during 8.8 25% 2,000 19.3% 8.6 occupier-favorable conditions. m) 18.4% 8.4 sq 16.0% Q2 2020 highlights Finance 1,500 8.2 8.0 14% (000’ > In Q2, the New Bund 1,000 7.8 witnessed many major leases. 7.6 Professional Services 500 7.4 We expect this emerging 7.2 submarket in Pudong to be 9% 0 7.0 responsible for large net take- 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F up in H2 2020. Source: Colliers International Source: Colliers International Note: USD1 to RMB7.09 as of Q2 2020. 1 sq metre = 10.76 sq feet. 1 COLLIERS QUARTERLY OFFICE | SHANGHAI | RESEARCH | Q2 2020 | 10 JULY 2020 Leasing market further favors occupiers Key leasing transactions > In Q2 2020, the vacancy rate in the Shanghai office market remained stable. Area Occupier Building (sq m) Submarket The global pandemic drove occupiers to hold back on further expansion or Siemens (China) New Bund Times 18,800 New Bund relocation. However, new projects generally offered favorable leasing terms Shanghai Branch Square in order to lease up quickly. This generated intense rental competition Embankment Pudong Hua Fu Securities 12,000 Q2 2020 among landlords and a 4.6% drop QOQ in average rents. The TMT and Square N1 others finance sectors still led demand growth. The emerging New Bund cluster in Anjuke Crystal Plaza T7 10,800 New Bund Pudong was a hotspot for major new leases, including Siemens, Anjuke, and New Bund Oriental Cango 8,400 New Bund Cstone Pharmaceuticals. Plaza Ⅱ Pramerica Fosun Pudong LCM Tower A 5,100 Life Insurance others > We expect market demand to gradually recover in H2 but remain relatively Cstone New Bund Time 4,600 New Bund low through year-end. We also expect average rents to keep sliding this year Pharmaceuticals Square considering weaker demand during the pandemic. New supply pressure may Boohee Technology Crystal Plaza T1 4,400 New Bund Outlook also be a factor, although some new buildings may be delayed into 2021. AXA Insurance Ruiming Tower 3,600 Lujiazui CBD submarkets vacancy (left) and rent DBD submarkets vacancy (left) and rent Zhuyuan, 8.7% Zhuyuan, 8.46 Expo & Yaohua, 27.7% Expo & Yaohua, 6.15 Key en-bloc transactions Volume New Bund, 31.8% New Bund, 5.97 Area (million Lujiazui, 18.9% Lujiazui, 10.31 Building (sq m) Buyer Seller RMB) Xinzhuang, 33.1% Xinzhuang, 4.60 Wujing PowerLong 6,500 Undisclosed PowerLong 138 Xujiahui, 5.1% Xujiahui, 7.65 Plaza G1 Hongqiao CBD, 23.4% Hongqiao CBD, 6.24 Wensheng Jindu Tower InfraRed NF, 18,500 Asset 794 Nanjing West Road, 10.7% Nanjing West Road, 11.88 Huamu, 15.9% Huamu, 7.26 (84% share) Collab Management Changfeng, 10.6% Changfeng, 5.11 Tomson Xintiandi, 9.0% Xintiandi, 8.95 International OCBC Wing 900 Tomson Group 42 Changshou Road, 6.3% Changshou Road, 6.63 Commercial Hang Bank The People's Square, 14.1% The People's Square, 7.98 Building The East Bund, 18.2% The East Bund, 5.70 Metersbonwe Qingshan 16,500 Metersbonwe 1,300 Building Capital The South Bund, 60.0% The South Bund, 7.62 Wujiaochang, 23.4% Wujiaochang, 4.98 Shanghai Tishman Crystal Plaza T2 26,000 1,743 Daerwei Trading Speyers The Bund, 8.80 Daning, 19.4% Daning, 4.49 The Bund, 16.1% Great Wall Pullman Shanghai 78,000 HSL Capital Guofu Real 2,765 Tianmu Hengfeng, 31.7% Tianmu Hengfeng, 6.67 Skyway Hongqiao & Gubei, 10.5% Hongqiao & Gubei, 6.42 Estate GreenLand Bund Haitong North Sichuan Road, 15.8% North Sichuan Road, 6.03 67,000 Greenland 6,119 Centre B1 B2 B3 Securities Zhongshan Park, 3.3% Zhongshan Park, 7.62 The North Bund, 37.7% The North Bund, 7.19 Source: Colliers International 2 COLLIERS QUARTERLY OFFICEPrimary | SHANGHAI Author: | RESEARCH | Q2 2020 | 10 JULY 2020 For further information, please contact: Peng Jiang Tammy Tang Senior Associate Director | Research | East China Managing Director | China +86 21 6141 3623 +86 21 6141 3688 [email protected] [email protected] Richard Shen Managing Director | East China +86 21 6141 3600 [email protected] Andrew Haskins Executive Director | Research | Asia +852 2822 0511 [email protected] About Colliers International Colliers International (NASDAQ, TSX: CIGI) is a leading real estate professional services and investment management company. With operations in 68 countries, our more than 15,000 enterprising professionals work collaboratively to provide expert advice and services to maximize the value of property for real estate occupiers, owners and investors. For more than 25 years, our experienced leadership, owning approximately 40% of our equity, has delivered compound annual investment returns of almost 20% for shareholders. In 2019, corporate revenues were more than $3.0 billion ($3.5 billion including affiliates), with $33 billion of assets under management in our investment management segment. Learn more about how we accelerate success at corporate.colliers.com, Twitter or LinkedIn Copyright © 2020 Colliers International The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report. 3.
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