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The Italian Unlikely to Pay Market Ready to Tackle the Challenge?

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The Italian Unlikely to Pay Market Ready to Tackle the Challenge? The Italian Unlikely to Pay Market Ready to tackle the challenge? www.pwc.com/it Contacts Pier Paolo Masenza Fedele Pascuzzi Financial Services Deals Leader Business Recovery Services Leader M: +39 348 2505003 M: +39 348 9999560 [email protected] [email protected] Vito Ruscigno Alessandro Biondi Co-Head of NPL Co-Head of NPL M: +39 348 2709820 M: +39 348 1565448 [email protected] [email protected] Contents The Italian Non Performing Exposure market and our view 05 The Unlikely to Pay segment 07 1 Unlikely to Pay distribution among Top 20 banks 08 2 UTP ratio on NPE – Top 20 Italian banks 09 3 Unlikely to Pay inflows and outflows from 2014 to 2016 10 – Top 20 Italian banks 4 Unlikely to Pay coverage ratio – Top 10 and Top 20 Italian banks 11 5 UTP performance from 2014 to 2016 – collections and returns to performing 13 6 What should banks do to tackle the UTP challenge? 15 7 Which strategic options to fix the UTP issue? 16 8 Forbearance as a relevant measure for the proactive management of UTP 17 9 How will the IFRS9 affect UTP? 18 10 Non Performing Exposures classifications 19 11 Unlikely to Pay inflows and outflows from 2014 to 2016 – Top 10 Italian 21 banks (breakdown by bank) 12 Outflows – Top 20 Italian banks 27 Disclaimer: PwC analysis are based on FY14, FY15, FY16 banks’ financial statements (tab. A.1.7 and A.1.8) and Data Provider dataset 4 | The Italian Unlikely to Pay market | Ready to tackle the challenge? The Italian Non Performing Exposure market and our view PwC | 5 Asset Quality The NPE (“Non Performing 341 Exposures”) volume in the Italian 326 324 banking sector is the highest in the 14 European market reaching the value 12 7 of €324bn (GBV) at the end of 2016. 283 18 NBV After reaching the peak at the end 127 117 237 131 86bn of 2015, totaling € 341bn, the NPE volume experienced a slight but 21 194 firm decline during 2016 (-5%). 109 13 157 The declining trend of UTP, within 91 the NPE, is mainly driven by lower 132 12 74 inflows from performing and past 16 due loans. At the end of 2016 the 85 66 NBV UTP reached €117bn vs previous 200 200 57 184 85bn year’s €127bn (GBV). 9 156 125 33 107 UTP provisioning resulted in €86bn 78 59 of NBV at the end of 2016 (avg. 42 coverage at 27%), higher than the bad loans’ NBV equal to €85bn (avg. 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 coverage at 57%). Past Due (€bn) Unlikely to Pay (€bn) Bad Loans (€ bn) Our view The volume of UTP, lower than bad loans in terms of GBV (€117bn vs €200bn) but higher in terms of NBV (€86bn vs €85bn), will require the adoption and implementation of a renovated strategic management and deleveraging approach by the Italian banks. ECB guidelines provide a great opportunity to renovate and improve the proactive management of NPE to address the issue of their massive stock. Moreover IFRS9, in place from 1 January 2018, will lead to an «early warning» and «forward looking» approach, which could likely result in higher reclassification of performing loans to NPE/UTP and overall higher provisions. Only by focusing the efforts in the proactive management of their UTP exposures, the Italian banks could aim at deleveraging their UTP, through higher collection, higher cure rates to performing loans, lower danger rates to bad loans. The proactive management of UTP should cover three main issues: (i) data quality and preliminary strategic portfolio segmentation, (ii) accurate analysis of the borrowers and integrated single names’ management and (iii) implementation of the most appropriate strategic option to identify among forbearance measures, cash injection (equity/ debt) even through third investors, loan sales and liquidation procedures. In other words, the proactive management of UTP is without a doubt a complex issue entailing and requiring due diligence, data quality, restructuring, turnaround management and M&A/special situation expertise. Thus, are the Italian banks ready to tackle the challenge? 6 | The Italian Unlikely to Pay market | Ready to tackle the challenge? The Unlikely to Pay segment An opportunity to not miss out PwC |7 1 Unlikely to Pay distribution among Top 20 banks At the end 2016, the UTP exposure amounted to €117bn showing a declining trend vs YE2015 (-8%). 93% of the overall amount is concentrated within the Top 20 Banks UTP among Top 20 Italian banks At the end of 2016 the overall UTP exposure is highly However, there have been few exceptions like Carige, concentrated within the Top 10 Italian banks (83% of Banca BPM, Banca Popolare di Vicenza and Veneto the total UTP exposure vs 81% in 2015); when Banca that recorded a different trend (Carige +15%, BPM considering the Top 20 Italian banks, such percentage +4%, Vicenza +4% and Veneto +25% in Dec 2016 vs Dec reaches 93% in line with 2015. 2015). The UTP exposure declining trend, started in 2015 (-3% from YE2014 to YE2015), is confirmed in 2016 (-8% YoY). 100% 17% 19.5 117.0 € Bn 2% 2.7 BPM 4% vs. PY 3% 3% 8% 8.7 Banco -13% vs. PY 4% 3.5 Popolare 4% 4.0 15% vs. PY 4% 4.4 -1% vs. PY 4% 4.6 25% vs. PY 4% vs. PY 38% 10% 4.7 5.1 3 % vs. PY 11.5 -17% vs. PY 13% -9% vs. PY 15.2 -12% vs. PY 11. Credito Valtellinese 2.4 17% 12. CA Cariparma 2.0 13. BP di Sondrio 1.9 20.0 14. Iccrea(**) 1.3 -13% vs. PY 15. BP di Bari 1.1 16. Banca IFIS 0.6 21% 17. Banco di Desio 0.6 18. CR Bolzano 0.6 24.5 19. CR di Ravenna 0.4 20. Banca Findomestic (**) 0.4 -9% vs. PY Others 8.3 UniCreditGRUPPO GRUPPOIntesa GRUPPOMPS MONTE GRUPPOBanco BANCO GRUPPOUBI UNIONE GRUPPOBNL(**) GRUPPOBPVI GRUPPOVeneto GRUPPOBPER BANCA GRUPPOCarige CARIGE Other Total 2016 UNICREDIT BANCARIO INTESA DEI PASCHI DI POPOLARE (*) DI BANCHE BANCARIO BANCA BANCARIO BANCA BANCARIO VENETO POPOLARE Others GBV total SANPAOLOSanpaolo SIENA BPM ITALIANE NAZIONALE DEL POPOLARE DI BancaBANCA DELL'EMILIA LAVORO VICENZA ROMAGNA 31Dec2016 Banco (*) Volumes of Banco BPM were calculated Popolare BPM (**) BNL and Banca Findomestic UTP as sum of the figures of Banco Popolare and 44% 44% Gross UTP/GrossexposureNPE as at 31Dec15; ICCREA UTP BPM (merged together in Banco BMP from exposure as at 31Jun16 1 January 2017) 24% 17% Gross NPE ratio 8 | The Italian Unlikely to Pay market | Ready to tackle the challenge? 2 UTP ratio on NPE – Top 20 Italian banks UTP stock is an issue to be tackled promptly: 37% of the NPE of the Top 20 Italian banks are UTP as at 31Dec16, with several banks (#12) featuring UTP ratio on NPE over 40% 1% FY16 44% NPE breakdown from 2014 to 2016 by bank Gross UTP var.% from 2014 to 2016 55% 44% 56% Past Due UTP Bad Loans Banco BPM Popolare -19% -15% -20% -15% -13% 4% 3% 2% 2% 4% 6% 2% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 4% 2% 1% 35% 32% 37% 36% 33% 32% 34% 42% 37% 49% 47% 44% 4% 2% 45% 1%46% 41% 45% 46% 41% 62% 64% 64% 66% 61% 62% 65% 54% 57% 55% 49% 51% 50% 52% 58% 52% 58% 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 201650% 2014 2015 2016 Unicredit Intesa Sanpaolo MPS Banco BPM* UBI +70% +91% -8% 2014 2015 2016+8% 2% 2% 2% +3% 1% 2% 1% 3% 4% 5% 2% 2% 7% 39% 35% 36% 6% 48% 48% 36% 47% 9% 50% 44% 37% 50% 47% 42% 41% Not 59% 62% 63% 58% 62% 52% 50% 48% 51% 51% available 53% 49% 51% 46% 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 BNL BPVI Veneto Banca BPER Carige +18% -4% +22% +26% +25% 6% 11% 8% 4% 9% 11% 4% 2% 2% 12% 2% 3% 8% 8% 3% 44% 44% 40% 45% 32% 43% 45% 43% 40% 49% 33% 45% 52% 40% 49% 59% 49% 50% 52% 53% 53% 58% 45% 47% 59% 43% 48% 44% 48% 52% 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 1H 2016 2014 2015 2016 Credito Valtellinese CA Cariparma BP Sondrio ICCREA BP di Bari -20% +381% +11% -11% +42% 1% 2% 4% 4% 2% 4% 2% 3% 4% 3% 8% 6% 37% 42% 1% 38% 47% 27% 60% 55% 29% 33% 40% 63% 22% 52% 8% 62% 69% 6% 58% 52% 56% 73% 68% 35% 59% 56% 43% 28% 47% 34% 36% 66% 57% 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 Banca IFIS Banco di Desio e Brianza CR di Bolzano CR di Ravenna Banca Findomestic (*) Ratios of Banco BPM were calculated as sum of the figures of Banco Popolare and BPM (merged together in Banco BMP from 1 January 2017) PwC |9 3 Unlikely to Pay inflows and outflows from 2014 to 2016 – Top 20 Italian banks At the end of 2016, despite the decreased outflows to bad loans (-2%) and inflows from performing (-4%) compared to 2015, 57% of UTP remained as such. The UTP challenge lies in the management of their massive stock Outflows and Inflows In 2016, total outflows of the Top 20 Italian banks slightly UTP which remained UTP during 2016 amounted to decreased from €51.1bn to €50.1bn primarily driven by €66.8bn i.e.
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