ab Global Equity Research Europe Including UK UBS Investment Research Banks, Ex-S&L Eurobanks Funding Monitor Sector Comment Q1 11 – back to full speed, for some 7 April 2011 Robust long-term debt issuance in Q1 www.ubs.com/investmentresearch Total issuance of banks’ term debt reached €315bn in Q1 11, a meaningful step up on the €244bn issued in the last quarter of 2010. At the same time only €225bn of bank debt has matured in Q1 11. We see UK, French and Nordic banking systems as most active in addressing their refinancing requirements. Alastair Ryan Analyst Interbank funding market – rates already priced in
[email protected] A higher interest rate environment in Europe is already priced in. 3M EURIBOR +44 20 7568 3238 reached 124 bps on 31 March, compared with 100bps at the start of the quarter. We Anton Kryachok see Intesa, Nordea and Deutsche Bank as net beneficiaries of rising Euro rates. Associate Analyst
[email protected] ECB support – still significant +44-20-7568 3580 We believe that, fundamentally, the funding challenges of some European banking John-Paul Crutchley systems are still not fixed. As of February 2011, the European Central Bank has Analyst lent more than €487bn to banks across the continent. Irish and Greek banks are the
[email protected] biggest borrowers in absolute terms. And, in the absence of any comprehensive +44-20-7568 5037 funding solution, we expect them to be most vulnerable to any tightening of Philipp Zieschang liquidity by the ECB. Analyst
[email protected] UK most advanced in the UBS liquidity test +41-44-239 7414 In a simplified liquidity test we see UK banks as the most advanced in covering their short-term funding requirements.