Climate change and disaster risk and vulnerability context of Province 5 Report Authors April 2019 Dhruba Gautam Jony Mainaly Regan Sapkota Bimal Raj Regmi Dinanath Bhandari Popular Gentle Climate Change and Disaster Risk Context – Province 5 About Oxford Policy Management Oxford Policy Management is committed to helping low- and middle-income countries achieve growth and reduce poverty and disadvantage through public policy reform. We seek to bring about lasting positive change using analytical and practical policy expertise. Through our global network of offices, we work in partnership with national decision makers to research, design, implement, and evaluate impactful public policy. We work in all areas of social and economic policy and governance, including health, finance, education, climate change, and public sector management. We draw on our local and international sector experts to provide the very best evidence-based support. About Policy and Institutions Facility The Policy and Institutions Facility (PIF) is a five-year DFID programme that supports the development of the Government of Nepal’s policies and institutions for climate change and disaster resilience. The PIF works on government policies, planning, and coordination systems for renewable energy, disaster management and climate change. The aim is to scale up and improve the quality of investment in these sectors. This will help Nepal to promote clean and resilient development. All of the work of the PIF aims to benefit the most vulnerable people in Nepal, including people with disabilities, women and girls. Oxford Policy Management Limited Registered in England: 3122495 Level 3, Clarendon House 52 Cornmarket Street Oxford, OX1 3HJ United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0) 1865 207 300 Fax : +44 (0) 1865 207 301 Email: [email protected] Website: www.opml.co.uk Twitt er: @OPMglobal Facebook: @OPMglobal YouTube: @OPMglobal LinkedIn: @OPMglobal Climate Change and Disaster Risk Context – Province 5 © Oxford Policy Management iv Climate Change and Disaster Risk Context – Province 5 Executive Summary The Government of Province 5 is preparing its periodic development plan and has identified Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Climate Change (CC) as an important environment and development agenda cutting across all the major socio-economic sectors. The Province Planning Commission (PPC) started a study, with the support from Policy and Institutions Facility (PIF) / Oxford Policy Management (OPM), to assess the situation of climate change and disaster risk in the province, and generate evidence to enable the integration of climate change and disaster risk reduction in the periodic plan. A technical team, consisting of experts and subject matter specialists, worked closely with the Planning Commission. The team reviewed published literature and carried out consultations with the provincial and local governments between October 2018 and February 2019. The study team also reviewed disaster risk reduction plans and local plans on climate change adaptation and collected first-hand information at the Palika level. The climate change trend analysis report (1971-2014), prepared by the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) of Nepal, shows that almost all Province 5 districts experienced increased annual precipitation in winter, pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons with significant variations in monsoon precipitation among the districts. In all districts of Province 5, there is positive trend indicating a rise in minimum temperatures in all seasons. There is also a positive trend indicating an increase in maximum temperatures in all Province 5 districts. The trend in four Terai districts (Kapilvastu, Rupandehi, Banke and Bardiya) shows a decrease in maximum temperatures during winter. Similarly the climate change scenario report (2014-2100), prepared by the DHM and International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), reveals that precipitation will increase in all Province 5 districts. As well as the positive change in precipitation levels in Province 5 districts are also expected to have an increase in temperature in the medium-term (2050) and the long-term (2100). The future Province 5 scenarios also reveal that extreme events, such as warm days, warm nights, warm spell duration, and wet days are going to increase rapidly. The increase in extreme events will have a direct impact on the health and livelihoods of people. Findings further show that Province 5 is vulnerable to natural and human-induced disasters. Landslides, floods, fires, disease outbreaks, road accidents, drought, thunder and dry wind storm are among major hazard events. Disasters adversely affect natural resources, reduce people's livelihood opportunities and the amount of income they generate and exacerbate their suffering. Agriculture is one of the most impacted sectors in the province followed by water resources, ecosystems, and human health. The disasters not only take human lives and destroy/damage physical property but also slow the pace of development. It was also found that, among the vulnerable population, © Oxford Policy Management v Climate Change and Disaster Risk Context – Province 5 children, older people and persons with disabilities (PwDs) are disproportionately affected by disaster and climate risks. There are key challenges in terms of responding effectively to climate change and disaster risk and impact in the province. CC adaptation and disaster risk reduction and management (DRRM) activities are very limited and not effective. The evidence suggests that local and province governments do not have systematic legal, policy and programmatic response to climate change. There is therefore an urgency to devise policy and institutional mechanisms to mainstream climate change and disaster risk reduction in the development policies and plans of the provincial and local government. In addition, the analysis demonstrates that local and provincial governments do not have systematized data storage and information generation in relation to climate change and disaster. Therefore, it is important for local governments to systematize their climate and disaster information collection and generation to support scientific planning and budgeting processes. Mainstreaming climate change and disaster risk reduction (DRR) in legal measures, policies, and programs is instrumental in order to ensure climate and disaster resilient development. The provincial government should provide adequate support to local governments to draft policies and other necessary legal instruments to mainstream climate change and DRRM in development policies and plans. Institutional and financial arrangements should be strengthened at both levels of governance - local and provincial. © Oxford Policy Management vi Climate Change and Disaster Risk Context – Province 5 Table of contents Executive Summary ...................................................................................................... v List of tables, figures and boxes ................................................................................... ix List of abbreviations ..................................................................................................... xi 1. Introduction ...................................................................................................... 13 1.1 Introduction ................................................................................................... 13 1.2 Province background .................................................................................... 14 1.3 Province development priorities .................................................................... 15 1.4 Study objectives ........................................................................................... 16 1.5 Study methods and approach ....................................................................... 16 1.6 Limitations .................................................................................................... 17 2. State of Climate Change and Disaster Risk ...................................................... 18 2.1 Overview of Climate in the Province ............................................................. 18 2.1.1 Climate change trend of Province 5 ........................................................... 18 2.1.2 Future projected climate change scenario of Province 5 ........................... 21 2.1.3 Projected scenario of extreme events trend of Province 5 ......................... 23 2.1.3.1 Warm Days, Nights and Spell duration .................................................. 23 2.1.3.2 Cool Days, Nights and Spell duration .................................................... 23 2.1.3.3 Consecutive dry days, rainy days, wet days, very wet days, extremely wet days 24 2.2 Hazards ........................................................................................................ 24 3. Impact, Vulnerability and Risk .......................................................................... 26 3.1 Risk and vulnerability of climatic and non-climatic hazards ........................... 26 3.1.1 Climate change impacts, disaster vulnerability and risk ............................. 26 3.1.2 Disaster vulnerability and risk .................................................................... 26 3.1.2.1 Flood ..................................................................................................... 29 3.1.2.2 Landslide ..............................................................................................