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Greece Political Briefing: Polarized Greece Concerned About Developments in Italy George N ISSN: 2560-1601 Vol. 8, No. 1 (GR) June 2018 Greece Political briefing: Polarized Greece concerned about developments in Italy George N. Tzogopoulos 1052 Budapest Petőfi Sándor utca 11. +36 1 5858 690 Kiadó: Kína-KKE Intézet Nonprofit Kft. [email protected] Szerkesztésért felelős személy: Chen Xin Kiadásért felelős személy: Huang Ping china-cee.eu Polarized Greece concerned about developments in Italy Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is carefully monitoring the actions of the new Italian government. A potential harmonious cooperation between Rome and Brussels will pave the way for a ‘clean exit’ of Greece from the memorandum of understanding. In such a case, an early election after the summer is likely as Tsipras will be able present himself as the premier who managed to give an end to the bailout period. Irrespective of his final decision on the date of the election, Greek politics are continuously being marked by polarization and the lack of political parties to find consensus and cooperated in spite of existing themes of national interest. New election scenarios and the future of Europe In May and June 2018 the possibility of an early election is dominating the political agenda in Greece. For example, the leader of New Democracy Kyriakos Mitsotakis and the one of the Movement for Change (formerly PASOK) Fofi Gennimata are regularly asking for it. Some media are also speculating for election dates in the autumn. For his part, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is continuously ruling out such a possibility. In a parliamentary discussion, which took place on 22 May he said a snap election would jeopardize the country’s exit from the third bailout. Obviously, this assurance does not necessarily mean that the national election will normally take place in September 2019. It is a frequent tendency for Greek politicians to act differently from what they publicly say. The leftist SYRIZA party is calculating parameters to proceed to an early election or not. For weeks Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras was hoping to achieve a ‘clean exit’ of Greece from the bailout in August 2018. Along with the obligation of the Greek government to vote for the remaining bailout measures and the potential agreement of Greece’s creditors on the sustainability of the 1 country’s debt, a ‘clean exit’ highly depends on external factors. The Italian crisis is therefore an anathema for Greece. The lack of calmness in international markets could seriously influence the effort of the Greek government to alone finance its debt after August. At the time of writing, Tsipras is rejecting the possibility of a precautionary credit line. So, if he will have to ask for it in order to better protect the national economy, his ‘clean exit’ argument will collapse. The new Italian government led my Premier Giuseppe Conte resembles the Greek one. A leftist party, the Five Star Movement, is cooperating with a right- wing one, the League. This model of cooperation has been politically successful in Greece. Theoretically, the Greek government (composed of SYRIZA and the right-wing Independent Greeks) agrees with the Eurosceptic logic of the Five Star Movement and the League coalition as it had pursued a similar agenda in the first six months of 2015 risking Greece’ stay in the Eurozone. Ironically, it now hopes that the Italian government will smoothly cooperate with the EU because in the case of a deadlock in negotiations between Rome and Brussels it will be Athens to be an economic victim seeing interest rates of Greek bonds rise. Tsipras advocates for a closer collaboration of Southern European states which are largely suffering by austerity. In September 2016, for instance, he organized the first Summit of EU Mediterranean countries in Athens. However, it is premature to argue that the new Italian government and the new Spanish government of the social-democratic leader Pedro Sánchez will give a boost to the EU vision of French President Emmanuel Macron. German Chancellor Angela Merkel only partly agrees with the proposals of Macron on the future of Europe. Within this framework, the Greek government has no alternative but remain committed to the implementation of necessary structural reforms and reach bailout targets. It is currently not in a position to influence the debate on the future of Europe. Heated debates in Parliament 2 In a period of polarization in Greek politics, some heated debates took place in parliament in May. Noting that in economic affairs SYRIZA is unable to implement its leftist agenda being under international supervision, it is attempting to do so on other issues. One of them is the possibility of same-sex couples to foster children. Specifically, on 9 May the Greek parliament approved (with 161 votes for and 103 against) a bill stipulating that same-sex couples with a civil partnership agreement can become foster parents but cannot adopt children. Not only MPs of SYRIZA and Independent Greeks approved it but the cohesion of the government is not questioned as the two parties agree on bailout measures. By contrast, some MPs of New Democracy and other parties gave their consent. The parliamentary debate on the possibility of same-sex couples to foster children also saw Tsipras and Mitsotakis disagree on their ideology. In the view of the Greek Premier, the leader of the main opposition party ‘has flirted with extreme-right populism’ and is clearly a conservative while New Democracy is reproducing ‘anachronistic stereotypes and phobia syndromes’. New Democracy replied by arguing that the next election will show ‘who the liberal and progressive one is and who is the obsessive and populist.’ As far as corruption is concerned, the Novartis Affairs was discussed in the Greek Parliament on 19 May. On that day, Greek MPs had to decide whether to return to the judiciary an investigation implicating Greek politicians in an alleged bribery scandal. The opposition parties – with the exception of the neo- Nazi Golden Dawn and a few independent MPs – boycotted the vote and criticized SYRIZA for smear, or even a conspiracy. The majority of the lawmakers that were present voted against the process because the relevant parliamentary committee was not responsible to investigate. So, the judiciary will continue the process. Another theme generating serious disagreements between SYRIZA and New Democracy is the (often) unpunished use of violence in Athens and other Greek cities. Anarchists and the anti-establishment group Rouvikonas (Greek for 3 Rubicon) are claiming responsibility for several acts of violence. This said, the conservative main opposition is blaming the government for failing to protect the country. This became obvious in the parliamentary debate of 23 May only hours after Rouvikonas threatened Mitsotakis. A statement issued by New Democracy, accused then SYRIZA for ‘downplaying – or, worse even, fomenting – the activity of [anarchist] groups in universities and all sorts of no- go areas’. Kyriakos Mitsotakis is attempting to politically capitalize by personally attacking Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras. In his view, ‘Tsipras is not just the prime minister of taxes and lies but of violence and lawlessness’. On 23 May, the Greek Premier condemned the Rouvikonas threats against Mitsotakis. His government has not acted to limit the violent actions of anarchist groups though. Professor of Panteion University Angelos Syrigos, who was rushed to hospital last year after being assaulted and beaten just outside his university, is right in arguing that ‘violence in Greece is semi-legal’. In an interview he granted to Kathimerini he criticized the Greek government and the relevant Ministry of Citizen Protection for irresponsibility. Deputy Minister Nikos Toskas has illustrated Rouvikonas as an ‘ideological baby’ and a ‘small percentage of the whole problem’. New coalitions required According to the current Greek electoral law which will be applied in the new national election, the party to win it (as all opinion polls suggest this will be New Democracy) will have a bonus of 50 seats in the Parliament. Despite this bonus, it is still difficult for the first party to form a government alone. Subsequently, if New Democracy wins the election indeed, it will have to find a coalition partners. Its leader Kyriakos Mitsotakis has publicly discussed this possibility suggesting New Democracy would seek to form a wider cooperation with other parties from which he is excluding SYRIZA and Independent Greeks. Here, it should be underlined that the bonus of 50 seats will be given for the last time in the next election. The future election after the next one will be held 4 under a different electoral law requiring big parties – such as New Democracy and SYRIZA – to collaborate. Joining the debate, the Chair of the Socialists and Social Democrats (S&D) group in the European Parliament, Udo Bullmann, urged progressive political parties in Greece to join forces ‘on the road to the future of the country.’ Talking to Euractiv he said he sees no improvement if the country’s governance is taken over by New Democracy, ‘which has great responsibility for the sinking of the country into chaos’. Premier Tsipras has used these quotes of Bullmann not only to chasten New Democracy but also to show his openness for a potential collaboration between SYRIZA and Greek center-left political parties. SYRIZA MEP Dimitris Papadimoulis has also agreed with the comments given by the Chair of the S&D group. The new election The beginning of June finds the Greek government in a dilemma on whether to call a snap election or not. The potential conclusion of the fourth review of the third bailout along with the climate to be shaped in international markets following the formation of the new Italian government will play a significant role in Tsipras final decision. While this decision is pending, the ongoing polarization is certainly serving SYRIZA’s strategy.
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