A New War on Interests and Five Major Challenges Contents

Published in Dusseldorf - Germany Issue 11 / September 2019

The Syrian file Demographic, Administrative and Social Change In Afrin

The Safe Zone In The Northern Of Syria Is Between Turkey’s Ambitions And the Limits Of Domestic And International Consensus Point of view

The Regional file The Defeated Ideology Strait Of Hormuz And The in Syria Future Of Security And Politics In The Persian Gulf

The Internatonal file America And The Escalating The Conflict In The Chinese Neighborhood

The Security and military file Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham HTS: The Mechanism Of Monopoliz- ing Jihadist Representation In The Syrian Arena

The Economic file The Syrian Tax System: Lack Of Justice And Predominance Of Corruption

Reconstruction: A New War On Interests And Five Major Challenges Contents

The Editorial 04 The Safe Zone And The Struggle Of Agendas

The Syrian file 06 Reconstruction: A New War On In- terests And Five Major Challenges

10 Demographic, Administrative and Social Change In Afrin

14 The Safe Zone In The Northern Of Syria Is Between Turkey’s Ambi- tions And the Limits Of Domestic 04 And International Consensus The Regional file 20 Strait Of Hormuz And The Future Of Security And Politics In The Persian Gulf

The Internatonal file 26 America And The Escalating The Con- flict In The Chinese Neighborhood

The Security and military file 10 32 Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham HTS: The Mechanism Of Monopolizing Jihadist Representation In The Syrian Arena

The Economic file 40 The Syrian Tax System: Lack Of Justice And Predominance Of Corruption

Point of view 26 46 The Defeated Ideology in Syria

32 46

2 Issue 11 / September 2019 A monthly strategic political journal issued by the Chief in editor Asbar Center for Studies and Research Salah al-Din Bilal

Managing editor A magazine specializing in strategic thought, providing a Husam Miro political analysis of the files concerned by the magazine, emphasizing the use of authentic approaches in the Editorial Board analysis of phenomena and events, away from ideology, Mohamed Halaq Al-Jarf and the «Asbar files» integrated with the work of the Center, in promoting the awareness of the different Art Director dimensions of political practices. Abdul Hamid Ali

The editorial board bears no responsibility for any infringement of intellectual property rights. cover REUTERS/Ali Hashisho

The opinions expressed in the magazine reflect the opinion of the authors.

Republishing or citation is only allowed after obtaining a license from the magazine’s management.

All correspondences are sent via e-mail: Contributions to the Journal shall not be [email protected] published in any magazine or any book. 46 @Asbarme fb.com/asbarme www.asbarme.com

Issue 11 / September 2019 The Safe Zone And The Struggle Of Agendas

Turkey’s quest for a so-called “safe zone” in northeastern Syria is not out of the way of the struggle to determine the gains of the forces involved in the Syrian conflict. Russia has achieved a large part of its agenda, especially with the demarcation of the military conflict away from the capital Damascus and its south, and securing a large strategic presence in the Mediterranean, but the end of the Syrian game still needs a few more moves on the chessboard. In spite of the US-Turkish agreement to establish a safe zone, the US deal with this agreement comes in the form of the “constructive ambiguity”, which leaves the United States with Salah Eldin Bilal a great margin to determine its features, ie determining the extent of the Turkish gains from Syrian wiriter and politician, it, especially since the US position about Turkey director of Asbar Center Studies goes beyond the Syrian file to the regional and international dimensions.

4 Issue 11 / September 2019 ment with Turkey a step against their strategic interests in Syria and the Middle East, and from this logic, on the one hand, they rely on the size of the strategic differences between Ankara and Washington, and on the other hand to re-mix the cards in the east of the Euphrates, especially as the Syrian government seeks to rebuild bridges with Arabic components in Raqqa and Deir Ezzor. The various parties are aware that Wash- ington has a lot of paper to use, in order to prevent any final understanding between Moscow and Ankara. On the one hand, there are military proposals to expand the US military base in Al-Tanf, and a political proposal based on the involvement of SDF in the political negotiations along with the official Syrian opposition club, which largely represents the Turkish interests. As for the “Syrian Democratic Forces”, especially the Kurds, they take into account the Afrin scenario and seek not to repeat it, so the idea of negotiations with Ankara On the ground, the infrastructure for missile operation of NATO. does not seem rejected, but it is based on continued American The idea of the safe zone in Syria is unac- the principle of caution in the first place, presence in north- ceptable to Europe and the Arab world. and it is clear that the Kurdish leaders, eastern Syria makes Consolidating the principle of partition, after statements by President Trump to it able to define the cutting off Syrian territory, to satisfy oppo- withdraw from Syria, has lost much of its final arrangements sition groups following Turkey ideologically, confidence in the US ally. in that region, and and transforming the region into a ‘Crédor’ The Syrian regime, and Iran, aspire to a toA define the political form of the Syrian along the Syrian-Turkish border, to include total restoration of the northern regions, solution. It does not seem to be in a hurry the Euphrates Shield (Al-Bab and Al-Rai) relying heavily on the shortage of Russian to draw the final roadmap. It took its time and Olive Branch (Afrin) and the areas of ground forces in Syria, and contradictions to arrange a small file like Manbij file, which the government of the Salvation (Idlib), to between other players, allowing them to now leaves empty spaces in the agreement consolidate and extend the control of Is- expand east of the Euphrates, which could with Turkey about the safe area, which lamic and extreme factions and the armed mean arrangements between the Syrian annoys Ankara, which insists on the details groups affiliated to Turkey. The European regime and Ankara, that aim at reducing of that region, while the United States ad- and Arab rejection of that region comes out both US and Russian influence. heres to the idea of working together, and of the fact that no reconstruction process Idlib and the Euphrates files go hand in organize that area through joint military will be launched in Syria unless this coun- hand, and it is clear, given the size of the arrangements, while staying away from any try witnessed a comprehensive political contradictions between the players, that proposition concerns the subsequent civil transition. It meant that partial programs any talk about the final form of these files arrangements and the administrative form, would not be approved for certain parts is premature, not only the obstacles are especially the local councils, as in Afrin. of Syria, serving only specific regional related to the interests and the conflicts of With Ankara receiving the S400 missiles agendas. large countries, but also the fact that these from Russia, Ankara has used one of its Despite the decline in the Arab and files include large domestic obstacles, most important cards, to pressure Wash- European roles in the Syrian event, but the due to the large population bloc in eastern ington, which was quick to deprive Ankara Russian player, the most importantly, put it Euphrates and in Idlib, in addition to the of all previous privileges regarding the takes the two positions of the Arab and Eu- escalation of ethnic conflict, the extreme production program of the F-35, with full ropean in its consideration, as a new stage and Islamic forces in Idlib, and their fate, if knowledge of the major technical obstacles in Syria can’t be put without major Arab the parties reached a form and mecha- to Ankara’s operation of the Russian mis- and European reconstruction programs. nism that delineates the borders of the sile system, which is incompatible with the The Russians find in any US rapproche- interests.

Issue 11 / September 2019 5 Reconstruction: A NEW WAR ON INTERESTS AND FIVE MAJOR CHALLENGES

It is no longer a secret that the next conflict between local, regional, and international forces after the end of the Syrian war is in large part a struggle for quotas in the reconstruction process. All the forces involved in this war have invested a lot of money, and are counting on the recovery of those funds, and make long-term profits, through various projects. Also, it is no longer a secret that the major countries have discussed the issue of reconstruction with many Syrian parties, including businessmen, opposition bodies, and research centers in the Gulf and Europe, and the discussions have taken different levels, as the road map of reconstruction faces the nature of the conflicting interests of the parties involved. The conflict, and its expectations for the future of Syria.

Asbar-Policy Analysis Unit:

o, it is war in 2018, which aroused great criticism, but at would be known in the following years, and another form, the same time, it is on the table to negoti- since then, after the release of the Geneva which can be said ate, or what the makers of the narrow circle Declaration on 30th of June in 2012, the to be a war no less of the regime hope for. questions of the reconstruction stage were ferocious than a Since mid-2012, several international dip- between the tides, decreasing a while to military war, and lomatic channels have asked many Syrian re-emerge at other times, especially after its peaceful face is oppositionists who met with some of their the so-called “Great Battle of Aleppo”, onlyS a fragile mask. For example, the Syrian representatives about their perceptions of which established to change the balance regime, as usual, preempted the rest of the the reconstruction of Syria. The war had of military power in favor of Russia. parties in the issuance of Law No. 10 of not taken on the catastrophic scale that At our center, almost two years ago, we

6 Issue 11 / September 2019 Source: apnews.com

had a wide interest in issues related to freezing, and the ends of these two files lems that go beyond the Syrian case itself, reconstruction, given the many questions remain unclear. such as the problem of Turkey in defining raised about this file, and its association In the recent months, some reconstruction the features of its foreign alliances, and with other files, such as the file of the re- scenarios have been put in place that take the future of its relations with NATO where turn of refugees, which is a very complex into account this frozen situation, but these there is little progress. file, and the subject of regional and inter- scenarios have faced many objections, Iran’s position in the Syrian solution, and its national disagreement, and is basically the especially the “unilateral reconstruction” position in the reconstruction, is the subject subject of Syrian- Syrian disagreement. scenario, which is intended to begin of disagreement among many parties, It is clear that the Syrian regime does reconstruction in areas under the control especially the United States and Israel, and not want a solution to this issue outside of the Syrian government, or areas under to a large extent Russia, and the future of the the interests of narrow circles in deci- self-administration. But the countries that conflict in the Gulf would in some way reflect sion-making, in a way that does not reflect are likely to be among the list of donors the future of the political solution in Syria. . negatively on what it considers military found this scenario ineffective, from the Will Iran, after all its investment in the and political gains which has achieved in point of view of linking reconstruction to a Syrian war, accept to go empty-handed? the last three years. certain level of political solution, and the It is self-evident that it will hinder, in its full The problem of “frozen conflict»: emergence of a path that gives confidence potential, any consensuses or agreements It is true that Russia has managed through that Syria is on the verge of stability, which that exclude it from the future of the Syrian its military intervention to impose new cannot be predicted. Among the objections political solution, for it the matter extends balance of power, at the expense of Turkish is the hypothesis of the return of the Islam- beyond the financial gains to a series of interests and ambitions, and the interests ic State “Da’esh”, if the political process is strategic interests, even the existential of a large part of the Syrian opposition, or not clear, a hypothesis that many security interests. the so-called “official Syrian opposition bodies and diplomatic channels have put club,” represented by the National Coali- on the table as a legitimate question, which Intersection of interests and tion and the High Negotiation Commission, must be stopped at. contradictions but those gains have a ceiling linked to The closest example of Syria is the Starting in 2019, our Center held a number the US presence in the northeast of the Lebanese case, which is the Taif Accord of workshops, which dealt in part with Euphrates, in areas under self-administra- in 1989, which is the actual prelude to issues not far from reconstruction. But tion, and the file of areas under the armed launching the reconstruction process, an its implications include the intersection opposition, including a large part of Idlib, agreement that resulted from regional and of interests and contradictions through a which is mainly controlled by Hay’at Tahrir international consensus at that time, but number of problems, especially the nature al-Sham HTS (formerly Al-Nusra Front). the parties to the conflict in the Syrian file of the future regime in Syria between Thus, the conflict seems to be in a state of have structural and inter-structural prob- centralization and decentralization. The

Issue 11 / September 2019 Issue 11 / September 2019 7 workshop that we held, in cooperation with least contrary to Turkish interests, and would Aleppo, it concentrated its efforts on south- one of the centers operating inside Syria, in weaken Ankara’s share, but at the same ern Syria (Horan) and Eastern Ghouta. The last June, about this subject, it included the time, the regime and Iran have so far found de-escalation mechanism and the Astana visions, attitudes and problems, especially no political justification for engaging parties and Sochi paths are political leverages for since the experiences of a number of coun- affiliated with Saudi Arabia so far, at least the their military plans. tries that have witnessed long revolutions Syrian regime is unwilling to see a new res- Although there is a UN resolution (2254), or civil wars, went in its entirety towards urrection of former Lebanese Prime Minister which establishes a “credible governing decentralized management regimes. In Rafic Hariri in the center of Damascus. body” and “free and fair elections based on Syria there are numerous considerations What about the interests of the Muslim the new constitution”, without specifying which have been imposed over the past Brotherhood and the Turkish Eurasian busi- the nature of the elections, either parlia- years, which say that it is no longer possi- ness and financial class? How can they get mentary or presidential, but Russia is really ble to return to a highly centralized regime, their share of the reconstruction process? trying to put the election results in its favor, where all the authorities are based in the Thus, recharging the Turkish “ The Justice with the exclusion so far of any talk about capital, Damascus, and that we should go and Development Party “ line and increasing the fate of the head of the regime. towards an expanded decentralization. its balance by making direct gains for Turkish Can these data produce a national political The Debate and conflict about the future companies through their involvement in the reform that would dismantle the political Syrian regime will not be far from the reconstruction process, especially in the obstacles that allow for the broadest partic- reconstruction process and the arrange- northwest and part of Aleppo. ipation in the reconstruction process? ments of the parties’ interests. The central For its part, Russia believes that it has the Reconstruction is usually preceded by polit- government in Damascus, represented right to distribute the profits alone, so as ical solutions, which may not bring justice by the political regime, fears and refuses to ensure for itself the largest share of the from the point of view of any of the parties to go towards a broad decentralization, financial and operational gains of the recon- to the conflict, but they do achieve a fair because it will lose its control over much of struction process, but due to the complex amount of fairness, which actually allows the reconstruction process. And the money Syrian map, the stakes of such a matter mutual concessions between the parties that will go to the local councils of the need to conclude deals with many parties, and a new beginning, with new symbols, to provinces, rather than to Damascus, or to which may not all be on the table, especially reduce the level of political tension, which any ministry that will be established for this since the process of shuffling the cards will is currently lacking the indicators. purpose, so a large part of the sovereign / undoubtedly happen, the Syrian regime un- Secondly- Security Challenge: financial / political decision will be shared til now refuses to engage real dealers close Under a complex map of foreign interven- with the center, which of course means to it in any serious dialogue with Moscow, tions, including internal and external mili- weakening the overall political regime, that in the reconstruction file, this would prompt tias, divisions of loyalty within the military means to turn it into a loser, which in the Moscow to exert strong pressure on its ally, and security bodies, and de facto data, military balance it sees itself as a winner. perhaps even more if it is necessary. such as the presence of “Syrian Democrat- The influx of funds into the local councils’ ic Forces” and radical factions, so this map finances would make them attractive Indicators of the challenges of cannot allow the reconstruction without the places for the population, so many of the reconstruction dismantling of this map in favor of a new ready-made urban plans for some parties There are key indicators of any recon- reality, the reconstruction needs an accept- interested in the reconstruction of Damas- struction that cannot be ignored. They are able level of security management, and the cus countryside would not actually be with interrelated, cannot be separated, and can lack of multiple sources of security forces, the expanded decentralized regime, so this be divided into five main challenges: and ease restrictions on the movement of category of contractors traders and indus- First, the national political challenge: personnel and goods, and thus restruc- trialists in Damascus, or those associated It is obvious that we cannot talk about the turing the armed forces and the security with its political decision, will be closer to reconstruction process in its comprehen- services, to allow the creation of a stable any regional or international proposition sive sense without reaching the core of the security reality, in practice, reconstruction that does not support going towards an national political obstacles, which were the is not allowed to be threatened by multiple expanded decentralized regime. reason for reaching the current catastroph- de facto authorities. Some Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia, ic situation, especially at the political level. Thirdly- Financial Challenge may be inclined to accept a political solution The aim of Moscow’s military strategy was There are varying estimates of the extent based on the principle of centralized to stop the drain of geography from the of financial damage to Syria’s economy government, with some administrative regime’s hands, and to regain control of and construction. The World Bank reports decentralization, if it ensures the presence of the geographic sectors affecting the siege a figure of 226 billion$, and the World close associates in the next regime, this is at of the capital, Damascus. After the Battle of Bank estimates the time needed to bring

8 Issue 11 / September 2019 and left the country, or have displaced to cities outside the control of the regime, which allow to establish new organizational units for the benefit of a number of beneficiaries, in the absence of any possibility for property owners to prove ownership of their property. On the other hand, the process of reconstruction is not a unilateral process, but linked to the creation of spatial justice, and thus will become a punishment for certain groups, and equivalent to other categories, and thus away from the core of the real objectives, namely, the return of the population to their places of residence, which Source: buildingsyria.net will require a set of legislation associated with this subject, the existence of a level of governance in the management of the in- the economy back to its pre-war level of 10 financial potential from Saudi Arabia. The terests of the population, and the existence years if the economy grew by 5%. European Union has no strong motives for of control over the executive plans, and the The urban damage includes housing, investment, and borrowing from the World beneficiaries. schools, hospitals, roads, industry, Bank will depend on a number of political, services, and transportation. The cities of financial and legal conditions that may Conclusion: Aleppo, Homs, Hama, Idlib, Raqqa, Deir be difficult to comply with, in addition to Syria’s resurrection from the war, putting it Ezzor, Horan and Rural Damascus are the certain long-term damages. on a new track, and restoring the economic hardest hit, with urban losses in Raqqa Fourthly- The Demographic and Social and social stability are all contingent upon alone amounting to about 80%. Challenge: The Syrian war has created the start of an integrated process, including It is not yet clear how sufficient funds can significant social cracks, as well as demo- the following: be secured to kick-start the reconstruction graphic changes, from asylum to neigh- 1. Reaching international consensus process, as domestic funds can provide only boring countries (Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, between Russia and the United States. a fraction of the money. Many presumed Iraq), and internal displacement, and 2. Finding sustainable solutions to the large financiers, close to the Syrian regime, reconstruction is supposed to note these problems associated with Turkey and Iran. have international sanctions, and other social and demographic changes. Pre- 3. Producing new formulas of governance internal financers, especially the traditional sumably there are clear plans. Significant (question of presidential or parliamentary business class will not be able to engage in numbers of refugees or displaced people governance, level of decentralization in major operations, without clear percep- cannot be returned without the provision of departments, separation of the three author- tions of the returns, given the economic infrastructure, housing, services, security, ities the legislative , judicial and executive). conditions imposed by the war, it is not roads and education. 4. Start a serious structuring of the military expected that domestic funding will be This demographic challenge requires and security institutions. feasible, because the national currency lost the existence of certain social criteria, in 5. The existence of an active role for the more than ten times against the US dollar, order to establish a state of sustainability Arab Gulf States in any future conference the decline of the middle class status, and a in stability, especially since the treatment of donors. large and even catastrophic increase of the of wounds and social scars is not an easy 6. An active role for the European Union. poor class, where the unemployment rate matter, especially in terms of organizing 7. Reduce reliance on the World Bank. reached more than 50% of the labor force. local administrations, which are responsi- 8. Producing formulas linking Syrian The external funding will be tied to the con- ble for new communities. businessmen. sensus on stability, political and financial Fifthly- Legal challenge: The Syrian gov- 9. Initiate the process of legal legislation quotas, while the complex international ernment introduced Law No. 10 of 2018, to achieve spatial and social justice in the and regional situation points to signifi- which allows it to own land for owners who reconstruction process. cant barriers to the capital inflows. The have not submitted papers proving their situation in the Gulf is still in crisis, and the ownership, which applies to a large num- war in Yemen has consumed significant ber of owners who have left their homes

Issue 11 / September 2019 Issue 11 / September 2019 9 DEMOGRAPHIC, ADMINISTRATIVE AND SOCIAL CHANGE IN AFRIN

As regional and international states involved in the Syrian conflict seek for strategic gains, in what they see as their national security, or an increase in their regional and international influence, some have encouraged and even practiced broad demographic change processes in Syria. While Iran has undergone demographic change since 2013, as in the case of Quseir, a city bordering the Lebanese border, entered by the Lebanese “Hezbollah” forces, displaced its original inhabitants, and then followed by other areas, such as Zabadani, Daraya, and Homs. Turkey, either directly or through its agents of armed factions, it has conducted similar operations the largest was in Afrin, after the military operation “Olive Branch” launched by the Turkish forces on 18th of January in 2018 and continued until 8th of March in the same year, and ended with the forced displacement of the Kurdish population, and some reports estimated that the number of displaced Kurds around 300 thousand people, note that the 2010 cen- sus of Afrin (the far northwest in Syria), there are 523,258 people, and administratively Afrin includes 7 districts, including 366 villages.

Abdel Nasser Hassou

10 Issue 11 / September 2019 The term population change has been adopted to describe the process of transition from one “population to another”. Demographic change is concerned with population issues, growth factors and equilibrium. Its concepts are influenced by the economic, social and political transformations of societies, as well as by measuring certain characteristics of the population, such as population size and distribution according to the type of work, resettlement, national, political, and religious affiliation. The demographic change can occur as a result of environmental factors (natural disasters), or social, political and economic factors. But the demographic change processes that take place in the wars, which are the focus of our attention with regard to the city of Afrin, they note the deliberate actions intended to bring about a process of changing the demographic structure, where the indigenous population is evacuated, and the replacement of population groups from other regions, in different ethnic composition or religious, through many methods, especially through direct military operations, or through systematic violence, and

Source: www.youm7.com to spread a general state of fear for fate or the future, which is driving indigenous people out of their areas, in large numbers. US-Russian approval of the Turkish were not interested in the eastern Euphra- International law has defined demographic intervention tes, including the Afrin region, and that the change as a “war crime” and a “crime In the political framework paving the way area under Russian influence, demanding against humanity”, in accordance with for Turkey to extend its influence in Afrin, it reach a political settlement with Russia, the Geneva Conventions of 1949 and the the scene began to emerge after the failure to avoid a possible Turkish attack on the Protocols thereto of 1977. International of negotiations between Moscow and the region. It can be seen as a regional and humanitarian law defines forced displace- Kurdish People’s Protection Units, which international contribution to the tragedy ment as “forced and unlawful eviction of ran the region, when the latter refused of forced displacement and demographic a group of individuals and the population to withdraw from the Afrin region and change of Afrin. from where they live.” Articles 6, 7 and 8 of surrender it to the Syrian regime. Which the Rome Statute, Forced Displacement are led Moscow to withdraw its base from Kafr Demographic change between the a war crime, and Article 49 of the Fourth Janneh (Afrin), which Turkey considered term and international law Geneva Convention of 1949 prohibits the a green Russian light, but the fact of the The twentieth century witnessed two world mass or individual transfer of persons and matter was that a swap deal between the wars, which included forced displacements their relocation, and Article (7.1 d) provides Turkish and Russian sides allowed Turkey of population and changing the geographic that it is a “crime against humanity». to advance in Afrin, in return for the ad- areas of the population, from cities and vancement of the Russians and the Syrian towns, on national, religious or political Demographic change in Afrin regime forces in Eastern Ghouta, to secure backgrounds, aimed at creating new In spite of many of the limitations of the the periphery of the capital Damascus, as political and reconciliation equations or dis- term demography, it remains problematic a result of meetings of Astana between connecting interrelated groups, in different in many cases, especially with regard to both Russia and Turkey and Iran. Earlier in respects, historically, economically, socially some of the peculiarities of the direct char- July 2017, Washington informed Kurdish and culturally, and sometimes redrawing acterization of racial or religious dichoto- People’s Protection Units (YPG) that they maps between countries. mies, where many of the problems, which

Issue 11 / September 2019 Issue 11 / September 2019 11 put parties against each other, as social bility of the work of independent research and the selection of the site in East Afrin on antifungal structures, and human rights organizations due to the the administrative border between Arabs Specifically in the context of civil wars, Turkish security hegemony on interna- and Kurds, near the village of Marimin, intertwined with highly complex external tional media and journalism to enter has been officially announced the opening interventions, population groups are placed and investigate the field. However, some of the door to subscribe to the homes, as religious monoliths (Islam, Christianity, reports indicate that the percentage of which are intended for the displaced from Judaism, Yezidis), or ethnic blocs (Arabs, Turk- Arab settlers from Ghouta, Qalamoun and Ghouta, Qalamoun, Homs and the rest of men, Kurds, Circassians, Armenians, etc). Homs in Afrin is between 50% and 90% in the areas in particular. All parties were invit- In the case of Afrin, the duality takes us some of the villages also indicated that the ed to contribute to the project, and “help towards the ethnic characterization, ie Turkish authorities refused to resettle some overcome obstacles to its implementation, between the Kurds who constituted an ab- of the displaced civilians from the Ghouta and to pave the infrastructure, and the de- solute majority in Afrin, and the displaced of Damascus and Qalamoun, while others livery of services, and the construction of a Arabs and Turkmen (of course, without ne- refused to live in houses where the Kurds mosque and a school at the site.” This has glecting the religious sensitivities that have had been abandoned, and the percentage raised fears of the Kurds of plans aimed at escalated over the past years), and the does not exceed 1%. their historical, cultural and national exist- process of demographic change according Demographic change has serious future ence, so that such projects would be the to descriptions It is defined by international consequences for the social fabric, as it beginning of a series of Arab and Turkmens law, that is, through forced displacement generates a state of hostility and national settlements in Afrin. without any legal basis, resulting from mil- hatred between the Kurds on the one hand itary intervention, intimidation of the local and the Arabs and the Turkmens on the Administrative Change population, their displacement outside other hand, and this is what the govern- The local councils formed by the Turkish army to manage the affairs of Afrin are aimed at changing the Kurdish features of the city of Afrin, and overseeing the percentage of population representation at the time of formation, imposing an unfair division, of which the Arab displaced people have a large share of it, and based on the presence of Turkmens, and the local councils provide public services, It was linked to the Turkish city of Rihaniyyah through a Turkish representative of the governor of Rihaniyeh, who in turn records the restrictions of the displaced on the state, in an attempt to implement a policy of demographic change. The region is home to 25% of the original Kurdish population, and the rest are displaced from Ghouta, Source: www.youm7.com Qalamoun and Homs. The civil registry secretariats appointed by their land, and the replacement of new ment of the “The Justice and Development the Turkish governor have begun issuing residents. Party” has been seeking for, which is a ID cards to indigenous and displaced Turkey has encouraged its Syrian armed long-term investment in the fragile Syrian people on the registers of their current factions, the Euphrates Shield, whose fight- situation, allowing it to expand its influence resettlement in villages, suburban districts, ers are Arabs and Turkmens, to occupy the in the future. and the city of Afrin, not on their basic villages of Afrin and terrorize civilians, with In order to consolidate the process of registers from their arrival areas, and killings, arrests, threats, ransom demand demographic change and turn it into holding elections with the participation of and rape, in order to force the local Kurdish established realities, it was established all displaced persons, who make up 75% of population to leave their homes, land and late last year, the “Shamiya Association” the population. livelihoods and to seize their property. in Afrin, which aims to build a community, On 17th of May, Turkey abolished the offic- There are no surveys or researches called “Shamiya Village”, to house the es of Offices of Displaced Persons which about the Afrin region after the Turkish displaced from different regions of Syria to were providing identity papers and residen- occupation, especially about the issue of Afrin. The Association has completed the cy papers in order to preserve their original demographic change, given the impossi- studies and administrative procedures, registers, forcing them to obtain IDs from

12 Issue 11 / September 2019 the Afrin Council, which they considered a and the archaeological site of Deir Simeon for the people of Afrin displaced to the serious case of permanent resettlement dating back to 490, the site of the Prophet north, and for the forced displaced who in the region and their removal from their Hori, the hill of the Tile Cindires, the shrine settled in Afrin. homes. And the abolition of their right to of St. Mar Maron, and the Church of What should be emphasized in any future return in the future, a blurring of the identity Julianos, one of the oldest churches in the political solution is the right of forcible of the displaced by issuing new identities. world, dating back to the fourth century BC, return of displaced persons to their cities Turkish authorities operating in the Afrin in addition to forcing the population to car- and towns. This right is ensured through area register the data of those entering the ry Turkish identities, and dealing in Turkish legislation, laws and executive institutions, region, especially the displaced people of lira , and the launch of Turkish names and and within clear timetables, which helps to Eastern Ghouta, where fingerprint and eye symbols on sites m Ornament, such as the correct the demographic change that has fingerprinting of the residents of the region, designation of “Recep Tayyip Erdogan” on arisen over the past years. and the registration of full information the famous roundabout as “Watani”, and about them, amid tight procedures on the the replacement of the name of the Tillel References entry and exit of the region, in addition to street with the name of the Ottoman leader Demographic change in the Afrin area (le- arrests and searches that included resi- “Ertugrul”, and pictures of Erdogan and gal vision), Attorney Hussein Na’so, Al-Hiwar dents and those who remained in the area Turkish flags are on schools, which shows Journal, No. 72, Syria, Qamishli, in 2018. and did not accept to leave the area. They a systematic plan to eliminate the heritage are audited and interrogated as they travel and civilization of the people Region. Afrin after Turkish domination: its political, through checkpoints. The economic situation based mainly on economic and social transformations, The lists of those admitted to the Volunteer agriculture, especially olive trees (about 18 Khayrallah Hilu, Wednesday, 10th of July, Competition for the Local Police Corps million trees), declined, and local develop- 2019. in Afrin, published by the “Police and ment was absent, in exchange for devoting Public Security Forces” in Afrin in February, investment plans to Turkish traders, who AL-HILU, Khayrallah, Afrin under Turkish indicate that the police are mostly from started to operate in Afrin, where they control: political, economic and social Eastern Ghouta and Homs, followed by the found a new market. In addition to the transformations. displaced from Idlib and Hamah. The lists growth of the wealth of faction leaders. show that only three local residents in Afrin, but they are Arabs, and no Kurds among Summary: them, out of 301 are accepted The file of the return of the displaced to their cities, villages and homes is one of the Social Change biggest complex issues, not only in the Syr- In parallel with the process of demographic ian case, but in the whole of the civil wars, change, Turkey is working with the help accompanied by demographic changes of factions loyal to the establishment of and large waves of displacement, and this a lifestyle not experienced by the region, file is mainly related to the nature of the through the development of administrative end of the war and the political solution , system, judicial, cultural and educational which is still a mysterious landmark. based on Islamic law, in addition to forcing In the closest example of Syria, that is, the Yezidis to convert to Islam, impose Lebanon, after the “Taif Agreement”, a hijab and loose clothing on women, and Ministry of Displaced was established, prevent them from leaving their homes which worked to return some of them, and without an unmarriageable person, and the to compensate for the other, through the resettlement processes are accompanied funds allocated to the Ministry; however, by the opening of mosques and religious large numbers of the displaced did not schools, which are supervised by Turkmen return to their areas they left. In particular, Islamic Councils. the repatriation requires massive funds As a result of the military operation, “Olive in the reconstruction of destroyed areas, Branch” three was the destruction and or the restoration of partially demolished severe damage to cultural and archaeo- structures. logical and religious sites of the Kurds and In the case of Afrin, what complicates the Abdel Nasser Hassou the region, such as the temple of Ain Dara, matter is the long-term Turkish ambitions, Syrian Academic and researcher dating back to 1200 BC, and the archae- which may be in harmony with the interests who has a lot of contribution ological site of Brad, which is inscribed on of other de facto authorities in Syria, as to the subject cultural, and published many published books the list of World Heritage Sites UNESCO, well as the new emerging situations, both

Issue 11 / September 2019 Issue 11 / September 2019 13 Source: middle-east-online.com

THE SAFE ZONE BETWEEN TURKEY’S AMBITIONS AND THE LIMITS OF DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL CONSENSUS

The Syrian file recently witnessed interlocking movements and positions that changed its local and regional tracks. With the announcement of “Dmitry Peskov,” Russian presidential spokesman, that “ one step remains to complete the formation of the Constitutional Committee,” the regions of northern Syria began to witness flying Turkish drones, in practical implementation of the agreement signed Ankara and Washington on 7th of August, which included the “coordination and management of the safe area” claimed by Turkey since 2013, and Washington agreed to implement it, with the tacit Russian approval so far.

Kamal Shahin

14 Issue 11 / September 2019 ith the start of cautious in anticipation of the transforma- the gradual approval of the establishment preparations tion of the Russian ally - not surprisingly of the safe zone following the implemen- for a Rus- much, given the latter’s willingness to tation of additional conditions regarding sian-Turkish-Ira- reposition its position as a mediator in the Tehran and the Syrian Kurds. So far, nian summit Syrian crisis. At the same time, Damascus Ankara’s response to the suspension of Win Astana soon, the Turkish and American is awaiting a strategic shift in its favor after Iranian oil imports (12% oil, 15% gas, and sides started the work of installing the the arrival of its forces in Khan Sheikhoun Washington has refused to renew Turkey’s infrastructure for a joint operations center for the first time since the beginning of the exemption from its sanctions on Tehran) between them, located south of the Turkish Syrian conflict, especially in light of the is an important response Washington will state of Şanlıurfa Provinc adjacent to the position of SDF, which is trying to prevent take with great appreciation for helping to city Ayn al-Arab- Kobani. For its part, the the deterioration of the situation in an area tighten the cordon on Tehran. Syrian Foreign Ministry rejected these under its control, with the presence of the understandings and considered them as a American ally. Russian position: “flagrant violation of the principles of inter- The Russian-US consensus in support of national law and the Charter of the United The American position and the over- the establishment of the safe zoneon Syri- Nations”, expressing their condemnation lapping of the files an territory, which is a practical implemen- of the “continued American intervention The US agreement to set up the Joint Oper- tation of the Memorandum of 4th of May in that aiming at prolonging and complicating ations Center as the center of the potential 2017 signed between Moscow, Tehran and the crisis”, pointing out that “some Syrian safe zone came on the back of several Ankara, supporting the Russian proposal parties of the Kurdish citizens” (ignoring controversial issues with Ankara, contribut- for the establishment of such zones in the the presence of Arab ones) carry the history ing to the temporary easing of the tensions self-administered territories east of the Eu- responsibility for this emerging situation between them, following Ankara’s receipt phrates, and in the northwestern regions of is that it is time to review its accounts and of the Russian S-400 missile system (de- Syria (Idlib), which Washington welcomed return to the national state, according to ployed at the Murtad base near Ankara). despite its “concerns” about its practical the Syrian Foreign Ministry statement on - Under the supervision of the United States implementation. 8th of August. Forces), and Washington’s announcement The Russian position can be seen as a dou- Meanwhile, the Al-Bab area (north of “to cease accepting more Turkish pilots for ble pressure message for the self-adminis- Aleppo) witnessed fierce clashes between training in F-35s, including maintenance tration and for Damascus at the same time, Syrian Army and Euphrates Shield factions, crews”, and to stop the production of parts with different reasons. The Kurdish going which simultaneously clash with it, in of the aircraft domestically, among other in the relationship with Washington to the Hama countryside and south of Idlib, after sharp disputes. limits of full coordination and ignoring reaching considerable arms quantities On the other hand, Washington has so far the Russian influence, made coordination from Turkey the Euphrates Shield, accord- taken seriously Kurdish fears of a possible between Moscow and Tehran with Ankara ing to local sources from Idlib, without Turkish invasion east of the Euphrates, as in its upper borders with many tasks, the the Turkish or Russian participating in the it did in the “Olive Branch”, which caused results of which appeared in the notable battles. Was the Syrian attack, postponed great losses to the people of the region, Turkish stopping use of aggressive rhetoric months ago, a message to the allies before and the departure of Afrin from its control, towards Damascus, with a high turnout of the enemies that they still had cards to and President Trump threatened to “de- supporters of the dialogue between Assad throw them on the table and turn them stroy” the economy of Turkey in case the and Erdogan (especially after the victory of over? Or has Moscow entered the stage Syrian Kurds are attacked by Turkey, the the opposition in the Istanbul elections), as of “blackmailing” the Damascus regime latest security agreement appears to be a well as the new Russian mission to Ankara (negotiating with the ally?) In an attempt to prelude to a jointly administered area, such in the separation of armed organizations soften its position towards the next political as the city of Manbij, where joint patrols are between moderate and extremist in the solution at the table of recent international being conducted, with the exclusion of the Idlib region, in order to dissolve it into a consensus? Turkish hand from the area entirely. new entity, so that there is a strong “oppo- Damascus position, which was secretly Washington is awaiting concessions from sition body” in any upcoming negotiations visited by a delegation of the Syrian Dem- Ankara beyond the northeastern region of about the Syrian political affairs. ocratic Forces (SDF) without explaining Syria to the Iranian file, and the messages The great purpose of both the Russian and what happened in its only meeting with a of approval for “coordination and manage- American sides is clear in removing Iran high-level intelligence figure, seemed to be ment of the safe zone” are a prelude to from Syria, and using all possible consen-

Issue 11 / September 2019 Issue 11 / September 2019 15 Source:turkpress.co sus to make the matter realistic soon, in a partnership with our American allies, after by “Kurdish forces along its borders, and double implementation of the Israeli desire, the establishment of the Joint Operations to protect Syrians from the threats of the despite Moscow’s great coordination with Center” and, if not, “we will have activities Syrian regime” ( it is to open its borders Tehran in the Syrian affairs, which the latter and operations, we will do it ourselves”. He to the flow of jihadists into Syria for years) is well aware of, at least in the levels of said.” We have reached an agreement and and to contribute to the return of part of intertwining its existence in Syria with the understanding about specific points in the Refugees, which they did in the aftermath Russian presence, in turn. issues of the Kurdish forces out of the safe of Operation Olive Branch, where they area, and the withdrawal of heavy weap- resettled 311,000 of our “Syrian brothers” Turkish concept of the safe area: ons from them, surveillance of airspace, (in Erdogan’s term) in the areas of Afrin, The Turkish move comes almost a year af- coordination and intelligence exchange.” Jarablus and Idlib, without forgetting the ter Turkish-American and Kurdish-American He mentioned that “the talks dealt with vast Turkey policy in the region for years, discussions to agree about the creation of the return of Syrians living in Turkey to the the identity cards issued by the local coun- the safe zone, which was first proposed by areas that will be cleared of terrorism.” cil administrations (designated by Turkey), Ankara during Erdogan’s visit to Washing- “These are precisely the Turkish elements and printed in Arabic and Turkish only. ton in May 2013, and then repeated sever- to be implemented in the safe area. With the waves of deportation of Syrian al times, not the latest after the president If the area was established according to refugees inside Turkey to their cities where Trump’s announcement to withdraw his Ankara’s perceptions, ie 32 km deep and they have been granted residency permits, troops from Syria, warning, in the words 460 km long from the total length of the severe restrictions on them, and the of its foreign and defense ministers, that Syrian-Turkish border (822 km), it would massive withdrawal of KAMLAK (temporary it would unilaterally assess the region if include the north of Aleppo, Raqqa and protection card for refugees in Turkey) to Washington did not help it (this is possible Hasakah, and by adding Turkish control force them to voluntarily leave to northern but risky), threatening to mobilize 16,000 over Idlib (6100 km 2), which has its Syria, the implementation of the safe zone- Turkish troops and 10,000 from Euphrates control points, the approximate form of the would use the (vast) territory to resettle 3.5 Shield fighters close to areas “SDF». safe zoneis evident by Turkey’s control of million Syrian refugees, noting that Syrians Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar was 32,404 km 2 of Syrian territory (17.5 %). deported from Turkey so far have been clearer in a television interview on 12th Turkey’s persistent argument in interfering directed to Idlib rather than the north, with of August, saying that his country would in Syrian affairs is to “protect its national large quantities of weapons flowing north “advance in the spirit of alliance and and strategic security” from threats posed to the Euphrates Shield forces.

16 Issue 11 / September 2019 Source: xeber24.org

Through the safe area, Turkey will achieve zoneare located north of the line between carry out firing without the need for the air a number of expensive points in the Syrian the villages of Sirin (Aleppo) and Ain Issa force, which is consistent with the Turkish file, the first to push the SDF outside the (Raqqa), as well as the city of Qamishli, the proposal not to “allow flights to fly over that border area, its heavy disarmament (one of towns of Ras al-Ain, Tal Tamr, Darbasiyah, area for humanitarian purposes”, if the Ankara’s main conditions not to carry out Amuda, Wardieh, Tal Hamis, Qahtaniyah, Turkish proposal is approved, other forces a military operation east of the Euphrates), Yarubiyah, Malikiyah / Derek (Hasaka), in the area would be an easy target for Turk- and the establishment of an alternative Ain al-Arab / Kobani (Aleppo), Tal Abyad ish forces or their Euphrates Shield forces. self-management administration in those (Raqqa), and they are the region in majority areas. (As in Afrin and others), or, at best, under the self-administration, thus the Kurdish position about the safe area: with little prospect, vaccinate those local probability of the self-administration expe- Contrary to its previous position after the administrations with elements of their rience in the management of those areas “Operation Olive Branch”, in which it called own that contribute to de-self-administra- is highly questionable, given the sharp for resistance to the Turkish invasion and tion, in a step that would be followed by Turkish position of the Kurdish presence held the Syrian government responsible for the dismantling of these councils, which close to its borders and Ankara’s insistence these violations, the new position of SDF, would mean that a demographic change is to deal it as an existential threat. So the despite its differences about the issue of automatically occurring in the region, and position of The Justice and Development the safe area, appears to be less severe these ideas coincide with the Turkish prop- Party isn’t different from the positions of and more acceptable, depending on the osition that the establishment of the safe other nationalist parties. positions of officials in SDF “insists that the zone is intended to “defeat the SDF militia The second factor is that the safe zonewill depth of the safe zoneshould not exceed and Turkey cannot feel security unless the give Ankara added leverage that it will a maximum of ten kilometers (which is PYD and PKK organizations that grow like undoubtedly use to pressure Damascus supported by Washington), and does not cancer cells on our southern border are in any future settlement, to fulfill some of include Ayn al-Arab/ Kobani, Tell Abyad, eliminated by light and heavy weapons the demands of the associated groups, on Ayn Issa and Qamishli, in a manner similar supplied to them by our allies.” President the other hand, the depth of the region, ac- to the current situation in Manbij, and Erdogan said. cording to the Turkish vision, ie 32 km, and “SDF” rejects so far that all heavy weapons According to the same Turkish perceptions, its conditions to remove heavy weaponry should be within 20 km of the border of the according to the Anatolian Agency, the from artillery and rockets from that area at region, which means initial approval of the most prominent areas covered in the safe a depth of 20 km, allows Turkish artillery to idea, which has alarmed Damascus, which

Issue 11 / September 2019 Issue 11 / September 2019 17 insists on regaining control of the rest of corridors for humanitarian access and, the country, which means its willingness to most importantly, to help move the conflict undermine the idea by encouraging attacks towards a political solution, but these at- within the region by its Kurdish or Arab tempts often ended up in war zones, from allies there, and they are groups waiting for Bosnia, southern Sudan and Rwanda to the right opportunity. Iraq and in Syria the results are not differ- The obvious aspect of the demographic ent. The results of Bosnia and Herzegovina change process is that it will affect the in 1993, in which the United Nations estab- Kurdish component, through the resettle- lished six safe areas during the disastrous ment of hundreds of thousands of Syrian collapse of Yugoslavia, are perhaps the refugees in Turkey in Syrian territory, which closest to the Syrian case, which was repre- is not their original habitat, although it sented by the experience of the safe areas should not include the Qamishli region in the Ghouta of Damascus several years (which was not ruled out by the Anatolian ago, and ended in utter failure. Agency) which is partly controlled by the The enlargement of the planned safe Syrian army, which includes a majority zonein northern Syria does not prevent of Kurdish, Syriac and Arab nationalities, the area from reaching Srebrenica in July and not Ayn al-Arab / Kobani, which also 1995, when 400 heavily armed Dutch sol- includes a majority Kurdish, and likely to diers failed under the UN mandate to stop remain under the control of the “SDF”, the killing of 8,000 Bosnian men and boys, but the assessment of the situation in the and then the rape of women and girls, is event of the invasion or if the establish- similar to the case of the city of Afrin, which ment of the safe zoneunder the full Turkish witnessed a mass deportation of its resi- administration, compared to the reality of dents with the same argument, with fewer the area during the operation of the “Olive victims and higher displacement. Branch” that indicates the preference of It is easy for all parties to the Syrian the current inhabitants of the region for the conflict to turn refugee camps - old and current situation; the second option prefers new ones - into war targets for any reason, the Syrian army to enter if the experience of and concentrating the presence of people self-administration is dismantled. Thirdly, in areas like this would turn them into these areas will not witness “Arab” resist- targets, as happened in the years of the Source: enabbaladi.net ance in the event of the Turkish invasion Syrian war, which did not save civilians because of Arab-Kurdish differences below from their crimes for all the parties the consensual surface. Apparently, it is involved in the conflict. das, raising the likelihood of combatants due to accumulations mainly related to the (from various parties) among the civilians, way these areas are managed and their Legality and format of the safe areas: and thus the possibility of clashes, such resources. Safe areas are not in fact an official term as during the “Olive Branch” operation, as found in the articles of international law, is currently happening in Idlib, from killing Benefits of the safe areas? but the international humanitarian law the civilians in the majority of attacks on The safe zoneis likely to provide little secu- permits a number of areas, such as neutral the area. rity and stability for hundreds of thousands zones for non-combatants and wounded The de-escalation and safe areas are sup- of civilians in northern Syria, if Turkey does combatants, disarmament zones within posed to establish a buffer zone between not start deporting Syrians, to create a new conflict zones and self-protection or neutral the two sides (20 km depth of artillery demographic reality commensurate with its zones, established by agreement or recog- range) and the presence of checkpoints possible future plans to federalize Syria, or nized by parties to the conflict, some of this and participatory guards, or at least a to annex the region to what it considers a area was established by Security Council little far from each other, and apply this to historic correction to its borders with Syria. resolutions, and these areas are protected northern Syria in light of its vast breadth The safe areas around the world emerged only by international humanitarian law. and ease of penetration. The costs of ad- as a desperate attempt to protect civilians In the Syrian case, the agreement of the ministering the region, as Putin pointed out from the dangers of conflict and to open parties is unlikely, given their differing agen- in a meeting with Erdogan in 2017, would

18 Issue 11 / September 2019 be “collective” and, if implemented, the EU in the presence of international witnesses, would likely be financed under its promise without alleviating their suffering. Thus, to provide 3.3 billion euros to Turkey, of the efficacy of the idea of a safe zoneis which 1.7 billion would be paid to avoid highly questionable, if there is a chance of greater influx of refugees. success in its establishment and manage- The main dangers of the Safe Zone project ment, the need for a strong and unequiv- lie in a conflict that will arise as a result ocal UN mandate is first and foremost, of the housing of new individuals in the the most important of which is a balanced area, which may pose problems, so easily aerial surveillance team from all sides to transformed into clashes. the conflict, which prevents the region from becoming a large Turkish concentration Summary camp and further aggravating the suffering In the years of war, the parties to the Syrian of the people. The conclusion of the idea Kamal Shaheen conflict did not abide by the rules of armed of a safe zone on which the world agrees is engagement, and used various types of its real motive is not protecting people, but Syrian writer and researcher weapons, including internationally prohib- preventing them from flowing to Europe. working for «Arab Ambassador» ited in various areas, against civilians, and and the Instit Beirut

Issue 11 / September 2019 19 STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND THE FUTURE OF SECURITY AND POLITICS IN THE PERSIAN GULF

Last year, U.S. President Donald Trump decided to withdraw from the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, and has since imposed tougher sanctions on Tehran, aimed at zeroing the Iranian economy, to achieve the stated goal of changing Ira- nian behavior in the region. As part of its “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran, which aims to eliminate all revenues from oil exports (the United States says it is funding destabilizing activities in the Middle East and beyond), Trump’s administration announced in last April that it would stop giving countries exceptions to US sanctions if they continue to buy Iranian oil. Tehran considered the move illegal, and the Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said Iran would continue to sell its oil, find buy- ers for Iranian oil, and use the Strait of Hormuz as a safe passage to sell its oil.

Hussam Abu Hamid

20 Issue 11 / September 2019 n a further challenge to members off the southern Iranian port of Washington, Iran decided “Bandar Abbas” on the grounds that they in July to raise the level of did not respect international shipping uranium enrichment from laws. Iranian officials have threatened to the rate set in the nuclear close the Strait of Hormuz, and US Central deal. Hours after a court in Command spokesman Colonel Earl Brown IGibraltar announced the extension of the responded to Iranian threats that the detention of the Iranian tanker “Grace 1”, waters of the Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf seized by the British forces on 4th of July, were “highly international, and that any on suspicion of transporting oil to Syria, in threat of closure would affect the course violation of European sanctions against it, of international commercial navigation, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards seized not just regional” and that “US forces and the Swedish tanker “Stena Impero” which its preparedness partners required to raised the flag of Britain and its 23 crew respond to any hostile action.

Source: fanar.center

Issue 11 / September 2019 Issue 11 / September 2019 21 Strategic interests in the Strait of Asia. In the past two decades, oil con- the lifeblood of its economy, which fell after Hormuz sumption has increased dramatically due the sanctions. The White House tries to Though small in size (about 96 miles long to the widespread economic growth that meet the United States, Saudi Arabia and and only 21 miles wide at its narrowest has accompanied the growth of the middle the UAE need the global oil market. Iranian point, with shipping lanes in each direction classes in those countries. For example, officials have questioned Saudi Arabia and just two miles wide), it is one of the world’s Chinese demand for oil almost tripled the United Arab Emirates’ ability to produce most important shipping routes, and is during that period, the United States also oil more than the current rate, saying that used by major oil and gas producers in the imported about 1.4 million barrels per day Saudi-US cooperation on oil is a psychologi- Middle East. It is deep enough (60 meters) through this route, and the United Kingdom cal war against Tehran, and that the idea of to cross the world’s largest crude tanker, imports some oil from the Gulf through the compensating those countries is politically it can handle 20 to 30 oil tankers per day. Strait of Hormuz, as well as about a third of and technically inappropriate. One-third of the world’s oil, about 21 million liquefied natural gas. barrels per day, passes through the Strait The United States remains the world’s Iranian control of the Strait of Malacca (in the Indian Ocean) about 16 largest oil consumer, but the recent rock Iran’s zeroing of oil production has serious million barrels a day, and only about 5-6 drilling boom has caused US oil and gas economic repercussions that may entail a million barrels pass through the Suez Canal production to rise and regained its role collapse of the state. The Tehran govern- and Bab al-Mandab in the Red Sea. as a leader in the global energy industry. ment believes that it is its authority and Japan is the largest importer of oil through President Trump announced on 13th of right to close the vital Strait of Hormuz to the Strait of Hormuz, while Saudi Arabia August that his country had become the transport oil. Therefore, Iranian military exports 88% of its oil production through world’s largest oil producer, and they no leaders were keen to emphasize that the this Strait, Iraq 98%, and the UAE 99%, longer need Middle East oil. This boom has Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf is a and from it passes all the oil of Iran and changed the dynamics of the world oil mar- strategic area, and that Iran is fully con- Kuwait, and most of Qatar’s gas. Iran relies ket, which is dominated by OPEC, so the trolling this area, and the Iranian Revolu- mainly on this route for its oil exports, United States today finds itself in a stronger tionary Guards has more than 700 different which has become particularly important position when dealing with countries such port, marina, island and observation posts in recent years for the major economies of as Iran, that the oil exports have long been along the eastern bank of the Persian

Source: washingtontimes.com

22 Issue 11 / September 2019 Gulf, can be used for military purposes, The consequences of closing the complacent today with Iran over threats it intercepting warships, commercial and oil strait considers a “red line” of closing the strait, tankers, and preventing them from passing After Tehran shot down a US Navy drone and any unilateral action by Iran to block through the strait. and displayed it in its media, the United transit in the strait will irritate countries In international law, the Strait is protected States announced that it was ready to carry that use the strait for shipping or seek to by article 38 of the International Conven- out air strikes against Iranian targets, but enforce international laws. Iran cannot tion on the Law of the Sea, adopted on declined to do so, merely strengthening its count on the use of veto powers in the 30th of April in 1982, which states that all military presence in the region, and called Security Council by some countries such ships passing through international straits, on other countries to do their part in pro- as Russia against any attempt to reopen including the Strait of Hormuz, have the tecting the Gulf and wider region. . France the Straits. The turmoil caused by the right of unimpeded passage, whether these and Germany have been reluctant to closure could be so profound that it would ships or carriers are commercial or military. respond to a British proposal to establish a test even Moscow’s willingness to stand by All ships have the right and freedom to European naval protection force to ensure its Iranian partner. pass through them, in accordance with the safe passage of crews and cargo in this international transit system, which does vitally commercialized European region, in The available alternatives not impose conditions on ships as long as an effort to keep attempts to keep the nu- If the Strait is closed, the options of their passage is rapid, without stopping or clear deal signed with Tehran alive, prompt- oil-exporting countries and their importing threatening the countries. UN bases allow ing Britain to join US efforts to protect the partners appear limited, as opposed to Ira- countries to exercise control up to 12 nau- commercial navigation in the Gulf from nian options. The only options available to tical miles (13.8 miles) of their coastline. Iranian threats, British Foreign Secretary transport oil by sea away from Hormuz is a This means that at its narrowest point, the Dominique Rapp said that Britain wanted limited pipeline that runs through Iraq to a strait and its shipping lanes are entirely to form a “stronger coalition to protect port in Turkey, but will provide only a small within the territorial waters of Iran and international law and order” in response to amount of oil compared to the size of the Oman, which are allowed to operate in their Iran’s “threatening behavior” and “Russia’s global need. There is also a relatively small territorial waters, but not at the expense of destabilizing actions in Europe.» crude oil pipeline in Abu Dhabi that could the right of passage for foreign ships. The United States does not appear to be carry more than 1.5 million barrels per day

Issue 11 / September 2019 Issue 11 / September 2019 23 Source: wikimedia of crude oil to a point on the Indian Ocean Road.” Iran can take advantage of railway detain ships under various pretexts, but coast in the United Arab Emirates, where projects which China plans to build on the has no desire even to sit at a table of tanker shipments would be at risk of Ira- ground, such as the highway project linking direct negotiations on American terms, nian targeting. Finally, there is a larger ca- East Turkistan, Turkey and Tehran. not making concessions to Israel in Syria, pacity of 4.8 million barrels per day through In mid-August, the Iranian authorities an- and not considering awards that satisfy Saudi Arabia from the Abqaiq region near nounced that they would export their first America’s allies in Yemen, it believes that the Gulf in the west to the Red Sea port of shipment of oil through the eastern Strait of the goal of the United States is not oil Yanbu. At best, this output represents less Hormuz, in March 2021, in a first step of its itself, nor its nuclear program, but impose than 20% of the oil now flowing out of the kind to circumvent the strait in the export its will, and satisfy its allies, especially the Gulf every day, but this pipeline has been of oil, and it is implementing a project to international oil market providers as an damaged by being targeted by a Houthi establish a pipeline to transport oil from alternative of Iran. drone in mid-May. “Ghorra” in the southwestern province of With the exception of Britain and other Iran has three decades of experience in Bushehr to the southeastern port on the Gulf Arab states, President Trump has so finding ways to evade US sanctions, from Sea of Oman. With a capacity of port ware- far failed to mobilize the rest of Washing- hiding its oil to bartering it, the most knowl- houses up to 20 million barrels of oil. ton’s allies in an international alliance to edgeable of the black market. the Illegal protect cargo ships passing through the actors have always been ready to bridge Summary Strait of Hormuz, fearing they could spark the gap, and have exported oil throughout Despite the escalation and defiance of war in a sensitive region of the world. the embargo through Iraqi ports under the sanctions, Iran is careful not to spin out Although Israel has announced its partici- sight of the United States and its allies. of control to reach a military confronta- pation in the alliance, it is still unlikely that Iran can bet on China, which plays a more tion with the United States, but it may Israel will send any pieces of its military commercial role than militarily, through continue to strike the interests of its allies fleet to the Straits of Hormuz and Bab the Belt Road Initiative known as the “Silk in the region, target US spy planes, or al-Mandab, its support is based on the co-

24 Issue 11 / September 2019 References Iran tanker seizure: What is the Strait of Hormuz?” BBC News, July 29, 2019, at: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-49070882

KARL RUSSELL, DENISE LU and ANJALI SINGHVI, “Why This Narrow Strait Next to Iran Is So Critical to the World’s Oil Sup- ply”, The New York Times, July 11, 2019, at: https://www.nytimes.com /interac- tive/2019/07/07/business/economy/ iran-strait-of-hormuz-tankers.htm1

Bradley Blakeman, “Iran has been hostile to ships near the Strait of Hormuz - It’s time for THIS solution”, Fox News, August 6, 2019, at: https://www.foxnews.com/ opinion/bradley-blakeman-iran-hostile- ships-strait-of-hormuz-solution

Max Colchester and Isabel Coles, “Britain, U.S. to Protect Shipping Through Strait of Hormuz From Iranian Threats”, The Wall Street Journal, Aug. 5, 2019, at: https:// www.wsj.com/articles/britain-u-s-to-protect-shipping-through-strait-of-hormuz- alition to monitor, gather information and The UAE, after effectively managing the from-iranian-threats-11565026612 support intelligence, so that Syria remains Yemen war, opted to withdraw from the the main battleground between the Israeli country after securing its interests in and Iranian sides. Although OPEC has so preventing the expansion of the Houthis, far been able to keep oil prices as stable Iran’s allies in the south, and a more as possible, the possibility of rising is still pragmatic policy with Iran. Its officials possible, due to the inability of the surplus visited Tehran and sat directly at the production capacity in the market to cover dialogue table. Saudi Arabia can take ad- Iran’s oil, and the global oil markets will vantage of the aggravation of the crisis an be the main losers due to the effects of opportunity through which to reconsider the deferred war. its policy towards Iran, so as to reduce Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emir- its role in the conflict between it and the ates have supported the United States United States, in order to preserve its vital in its withdrawal from the nuclear deal interests, and to prevent a war threat- with Iran, and encouraged it to move ening security and politics in the Gulf, forward in its policy to achieve “maximum whose future is dependent on a strategy pressure” that may bring some gains to based on the policy of common interests, the Gulf states in the short term, but the and the direct understanding among effects of the deferred war will negatively the countries of the region, which should Hussam Abu Hamid affect their interests, and Iran will contin- possess alone control their own destiny, An independent Palestinian writer ue in targeting UAE and Saudi interests; rather than needing alliances, foreign and researcher, specialized in Arab their ships, their infrastructure, and their interventions led by President Trump, the and regional political affairs, as oil facilities. owner of “America’s first theory.» well as philosophical research.

Issue 11 / September 2019 Issue 11 / September 2019 25 AMERICA AND THE ESCALATING THE CONFLICT IN THE CHINESE NEIGHBORHOOD

26 Issue 11 / September 2019 International relations experts agree that the file of US-China relations is one of the most complicated and problematic issues on the world stage. Perhaps the most important characteristic of the relationship between the two superpowers is the amount of overlap and great conflicts of interest. Some analysts like to see the current Chinese-US relationship as the US-European relationship a century ago, relative to the huge amount of trade, and the great competition that leads to a lot of mistrust, due to the deep differences in the majority of files from trade and economy, and human rights to the most sensitive topics in the strategic issues, such as new weapon technology, to security and espionage. The relationship between Washington and Beijing is currently witnessing a new wave of political and strategic escalation, especially from the US side. Although this escalation is not new from its predecessors during the past decade at least, but in terms of form it may be more severe perhaps. The rivalry between the two countries has rarely been made public. Under the official statements, the two sides call for cooperation and partnership in various fields and files, but the truth says otherwise. The tension within the political corridors in Beijing and Washington is very deep and takes the form of an international conflict. Integrated economically, politically, militarily and security. Some parties in the United States see China as a dangerous adversary that it must confront and contain its rise, even by military force. China threatens US interests, especially in the Middle East, through its alliance with Moscow, Washington’s historic enemy.

Wael al-Shihabi

Issue 11 / September 2019 Issue 11 / September 2019 27 Trade sanctions and political ly linked to the protests. Pompeo’s visit is part of US policy to en- escalation In Taiwan, a few months ago, Washington sure that “the Indian and Pacific Oceans In the recent escalation by the United signed a 2.2 billion $ heavy weapons are free and open.” The supposed goal States in its trade war with China, Wash- and armored deal with Taiwan. China de- of the policy, which the US Secretary of ington imposed sanctions on Chinese manded the cancellation of the deal im- State has already affirmed in Bangkok companies, most notably Huawei, as mediately. Because it considers Taiwan a and later in Sydney, is to counter Chinese part of a series of sanctions initiated central issue. Beijing rejects any attempts power, which the United States considers by President Donald Trump as he took by Taiwan supporters to disassociate the to be increasingly expansionary. office as president of the United States, island from China. It will not hesitate to imposing an increase in duties. Trump protect its territorial security and sover- recently announced plans to impose new eignty and, if necessary, to bring it under sanctions and tariffs on China, where in- its control by force. crease in customs duties on iron imports As the continues policy of encirclement 25%, and aluminum by 10%. Trump and containment china, the United recently announced plans to impose new States is trying to open up to North Korea sanctions and tariffs on China, by the to strengthen its political and strategic beginning of September, worth more than presence, making China uncomfortable, 300 billion$, in addition to his recent despite its earlier demand for Washington statement at the White House, in clear to ease sanctions on Pyongyang. threat language, that the United States is Recently, US Secretary of State Mike not ready to assign an agreement. Pompeo visited the main island of the Washington is trying to pursue a policy Federated States of Micronesia, in what of escalation by encircling China at all was considered a “historic” visit, to levels of economic, strategic and military, demonstrate Washington’s renewed inter- to reduce the strength of China’s growing est in its Pacific allies against a backdrop economy, and even reduce its role at of a regional confrontation with China. the international level, perhaps the most This is the first time a US Secretary of severe form of escalation by the United State has visited this country, which is not States by strengthening its political and used to receiving world leaders. strategic presence in the Chinese Neigh- The researcher Elizabeth Economy of the borhood. American Research Center “Council on China accuses the United States of Foreign Relations” that «In the past year, conspiring with criminal elements linked the United States has worked proactively to anti-China criminal activities in Hong to consolidate its position in the Pacific Kong, where there are demonstrations Islands region, which it considers to be against the Chinese government, which strategic,” Beijing believes that Washington is close-

28 Issue 11 / September 2019 The Chinese rising China is emerging as an emerging sanctions and measures imposed on Certainly, there is a clear challenge posed global power that cannot be ignored, Chinese goods, it also seeks to strangle it by China’s rise to US hegemony. Since capable of leveraging its human and geo-strategically. But the relation between the end of the Cold War and the fall of the economic capabilities and technological the two countries remain more complicat- Communist regime in the early 1990s, and scientific development, enabling it ed than classifying them as cooperation America has become the only pole to to play more major political roles and or an absolute clash. When relations ap- dominate the international regime. more effective political roles within the proach to the point of explosion, channels China, which some saw as an empire international regime, which is undergo- of communication, dialogue, and calming trying to ascend on the shoulders of the ing a reconfiguration phase, especially the situation suddenly open, and the Soviet Union, has in the past 30 years with its clear foreign policy vision, within United States usually behaves proactively. moved its economy to second place specific principles. The most important of American research centers have been globally, and in the opinion of some which is the peaceful rise of China, and to talking for more than 20 years about economists, it may be able to occupy the continue the open-door policy. the idea of China’s rise politically and first place not long ago. At the same time as China was slowly and militarily, and US intelligence monitors In 2010, China’s GDP increased to quietly developing its capabilities, the China’s development in terms of growth 5878.6 billion $, compared with 5474.2 United States was draining its capabilities and industrial mobility, especially after billion $ for its Japanese counterpart, in global conflicts, such as fighting ter- China’s restoration of Hong Kong in 1997, which increased China’s contribution rorism (the invasion of Afghanistan and although the disagreements between to the world gross domestic product by Iraq), and trying to contain Russia, which the two world powers may outpace the more than 5%. Compared with 4833 had been trying to restore the Soviet agreement points. billion$, compared to 15,343 Union’s role in the international system. China considers the imbalance in trade billion $ for the European Union, Since the former President Barack Oba- between the two countries to be a result 14,400 billion $ for the United ma’s term, the Chinese danger is taking of US economic policies, which have led States of America, 4,993 billion on even more of the US international to weak competitiveness of US products, $ for Japan, 1186 billion $ for strategy, and under President Trump’s not the exchange rate. China has repeat- India and 1164 billion $ for term is a priority for US strategy and edly stated that it is waiting for a robust Russia. decision-makers in Washington. recovery of global economic activity before revising its currency exchange US-Chinese competition across rate, so as not to reflect negatively on its the world exports, and hence its economic growth, China’s capabilities are ranked which (along with other major emerging second globally, but the gap remains markets) is the engine of global economic large between them and the United growth. States. Just as America is trying to The United States has repeatedly strangle China economically through accused China of hacking American

Issue 11 / September 2019 Issue 11 / September 2019 29 products, and the film, music, publishing, Scenario 1: The United States may seek China’s progress, it will also serve China in video games, textile, chemicals, electri- a formula for understanding with China its defense of its political unity. Chinese-US cal equipment, and media technologies and strengthen economic and political interests converge on many points. China sectors are the most affected by Chinese relations between the two countries. With has common strategic interests with the piracy. US companies investing in China the activation of the language of dialogue United States in maintaining peace and also complain about the theft of intellectual and reliance on diplomacy to resolve out- stability in East Asia and the cooperation is property rights and the unfair advantages standing issues between the two countries, needed to solve global issues such as the of domestic competitors. rapprochement and cooperation are in environment, drugs, smuggling, migration, The conflict between the United States the interest of both countries. Advanced energy and others, as well as new meeting and China is also escalating to include the China is better than underdeveloped China points, such as their common interests in race for access to raw materials, especially for the United States, and indeed for the the fight against international terrorism. from Africa and Latin America, where China international regime as a whole, coopera- is seeking to link many African countries tion is gaining both. Cooperation between Scenario 2 : Washington may seek further through long-term loans. them prevents a Chinese-Russian strategic escalation, which could lead to a military Another factor that raises tension between alliance directed against the United States conflict between them, in light of China’s the two countries is that China produces as well it prevents the US support for strong desire to become a superpower, and about 97% of the rare earth elements, regional powers in Asia. In order to curb always strive to develop its capabilities and which enter the technological industries and electronic devices, mobile phones, computers, guided missiles, lasers, communication systems and radars, avionics, night vision devices, satellites and many other strategic industries. This worries the United States that China may cut supplies of these rare metals. At the same time, despite intense competition between the two countries, and at all political, economic, technological and military levels, the economic interests of China and the United States are closely intertwined. China invests about 1.3 trillion $ in US Treasury bonds, making it the largest foreign holder of US government debt and its third debtor after the US Federal Reserve and the US Social Insurance Corporation. For many years, China has used large surpluses to buy US Treasuries. This was welcomed by Washington, which helps it fund its huge budget deficit, allowing it to increase spending without having to raise taxes. In contrast, as the US continues to issue more cash and pay very low interest on Treasury bonds, China claims to have lost about 271 billion $ between 2003 and 2010 as a result of its acquisition of US Treasuries.

US confrontation scenarios with China US options for dealing with China can be summarized in three possible scenarios:

30 Issue 11 / September 2019 military spending, which the United States strategic cooperation, nor will they amount adequately and takes into account in any views as the main source of threat to to confrontation, especially with shifts in confrontation with Washington. security and to its position in the interna- international alliances and a decline in But the development of Washington’s tional regime, there are American concerns confidence, especially between the United hostility is its primary goal of subjugating about the growing of the Chinese military States and the European Union. China, through pressing negotiating pa- capabilities, fear of a strategic alliance with pers, beyond the issue of trade sanctions, the Russian adversary, and Chinese con- Summary and pushing it to change many of its plans, cerns and doubts about China’s support for Through its political moves in its neigh- especially the “Belt and Road” initiative. Japan and India, and support for separatist borhood, the United States seeks to send Consequently, the complexity of interests movements inside China. These issues are strong messages to Beijing, and to demon- and their complexity, and the nuclear directed against China. That threatens the strate its ability to go confrontation with balance, impose a number of important unity of the Chinese entity, and in the event them, by sparking tensions in the vicinity of controls in the relationship between the two of armed conflict between them, the results China, and perhaps even within it. Wash- world powers, especially in the absence of will be open to many possibilities. ington has accumulated experience in a coherent international order. igniting regional and local / national crises In the short term, however, we are not ex- Scenario 3: Bilateral relations in the future and long-term investing in them to achieve pected to see any decline in the escalation. may not amount to rapprochement and strategic goals, which China understands China will not make painful concessions quickly, and the US hasn’t played most of its cards yet.

References Marion Smith, We’re in a new Cold War. Hong Kong, like Berlin before it, is the first battle, USA TODAY, Aug 15, 2019.

Howard W. French, What America’s China Debate Gets and Wrong-and what it’s Missing, WPR, July 31, 2019

Wael al-Shihabi

A writer specializing in law and international relations

Issue 11 / September 2019 Issue 11 / September 2019 31 Source: syrian-reporter.net

Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham HTS: THE MECHANISM OF MONOPOLIZING JIHADIST REPRESENTATION IN THE SYRIAN ARENA

Researchers use three classifications of Salafi movements in the academic studies: scientific Salafism that cares only for advocacy, dynamic Salafism based on political action, and Salafi jihadism based on armed action. While scientific Salafism calls for a civil concept of government, the dynamic Salafism is based on the mechanisms of civil governance to reach “em- powerment”, and thus to establish an Islamic concept of governance “Caliphate, Islamic state, emirate, etc.”

Mohammed Halaq al-Jerf

32 Issue 11 / September 2019 Source: alnour.com.lb

he former Salafisms, subject of this paper, it is important to taken by Ayman al-Zawahiri, the leader of both the scientific and emphasize that it is not the result of the po- the Egyptian Jihad and Al-Qaeda later, and dynamic, consid- litical moment in Syria, but has undergone adopted by Marwan Hadid, the founder ered that the rebels stages of development as a result of the of the Vanguard Combat Group in Syria, (Mujahideen) have an interaction of the local and international crystallized its thesis, Abdullah Azzam, the T emergency tempo- context, as well as the interaction and spiritual father of Arab Afghans in Afghani- rary authority in the Syrian affairs, with competition relations that exist within stan, and Abu Musab Syrian developed its limited powers that allow politicians to play the jihadist milieu. Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham documents in the diaspora. independently from the military, and the depends on various Salafi-jihadi sources, Thus, there are many tributaries of the dynamic Salafism in particular, considers but lacks coherence and cohesion due to ideology of the organization, and its main that society is the main area of its activity, its recent emergence following the start thread dates back to the general ideology and its method of work depends on work of the Syrian revolution in March 2011, of Salafi jihadism, and its transformation, and awareness. The dynamic Salafism has and the declaration of its founding as the to the stability of the Al-Qaeda reviews, a conservative attitude towards political “al-Nusra Front” in January 2012. It consist- which were revealed by documents organization due to the fear of partisan- ed of a hybrid mix of fighters with support obtained by Americans in the hideout of ship. The dynamic Salafism has no clear and the attribution of the Iraqi branch Osama bin Laden at the moment of his way to get to power. While jihadi Salafism and, therefore, the reference authority of death, and published later. considers military organization to be the the HTS is based mainly on the dynamic only means to achieve its goal of govern- Salafism that emerged from the womb of Transitions of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham ing, control of the state is an absolute the Muslim Brotherhood. It belongs to the HTS is a product of the transformation of priority for it. jihadist school whose theoretical origins the transnational jihadi Salafism repre- As for Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham( HTS), the were drawn by Sayyid Qutb, and later sented by al-Qaeda in the Syrian domestic

Issue 11 / September 2019 Issue 11 / September 2019 33 environment by interacting with the follow- of al-Sham to push the the international Din Front and later the “Army of the Sunni ing elements: the complex relationship with community excuses to protect the “Jihad Brigade”, The “Noureddine Zanki Move- the international community, the jihadi al-Shami”. While the announcement of ment”, but all the data indicates that the experience in Iraq, the relationship with “Al-Nusra Front” in one of its faces was backbone of this new formation are leaders al-Qaeda, and Jihadi competition relations the result of the conflict with ISIS, the and elements of the “Al-Nusra Front.” for the foster environment. announcement of “Fatah al-Sham” was Upon his disengagement from al-Qaida, In general, the explanation that Al-Nusra a product of rivalry with “Ahrar al-Sham” al-Julani did not abandon the Salafi-jihadi Front appearance in the form of the in an effort to monopolize the “Syrian authority, but was emphasized in the five HTS was not the result of deep and real jihad”, which Confirms that the factor of objectives he declared for the formation of intellectual reviews by its leaders, but also conflict and competition between jihadi Fatah al-Sham: the compelling response to the state of movements is one of the most important Work to establish the religion of God and regional and international pressure and factors for the transformation of Islamic achieve justice among people. entitlement it suffered following the loss of movements in Syria. Unite with the factions opposed to join the “invasion” of Aleppo and the start of On 28th of January in2017, following the the ranks of the Jihadists, to liberate the Astana track, and this manifestation setback of Aleppo and the start of the the land of the Levant and eliminate the was also an opportunity for the front to Astana route, Abu Muhammad al-Julani regime and its agents. impose its monopoly on the Syrian jihadi announced the formation of a new organi- Protecting and continuing the Islamic representation before the Ahrar al-Sham zation based on alliance with other factions Jihad and adopting all the legitimate Movement, its most important competitor called the Liberation of Hay’at Tahrir means. on the local environment, especially since al-Sham HTS, which included the Ansar al- Seeking to serve Muslims and stand on many of the leaders of the “Ahrar”, led by Abu Jaber al-Sheikh, the commander of Ahrar al-Sham have joined the nascent organization. The transformations of the HTS may be divided into the following phases: The first phase is the declaration of “Al-Nusra Front for the Levant” (between January 2012 and July 2016), which came as a result of the arrival of the Iraqi branch of al-Qaeda to the Syrian jihadi arena. The leader of Al-Nusra Front, Abu Muham- mad al-Joulani, was keen to avoid Iraq’s mistakes and adhere to the new approach of al-Qaeda based on integration into the local environment without declaring direct affiliation to the central organization. At this point, the Front was listed as a US terrorist organization in January 2012, and the UN in May 2013, and it also lived in conflict with the Islamic State of Iraq, following the announcement by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, which is known later as ISIS, in April 2013, prompting it announce its ally to al-Qaeda. This has provoked negative reactions from the organization’s leaders, as well as the resentment of the Syrians. The second phase of the HTS transformation was the announcement of the “Fateh al-Sham Front” in July 2016, which lasted until January 2017.In this phase, al-Julani announced his disengagement from al-Qaeda, justifying the desire of the people

34 Issue 11 / September 2019 their affairs and alleviate their suffering. on remaining as a local organization ki movement, for example, affiliated with Achieve security, stability and a decent mainly, and not paying attention to the the “Free Syrian Army” formations, includes life for the general public. expansion beyond borders and relying liberal leadership elements, which wit- Julani’s move to break with al-Qaeda heavily on local elements, and not to nessed its organizational end, after joining was seen as a purely pragmatic political, carry out terrorist operations in Europe, HTS, and its subsequent disintegration, and legal and media attempt to escape the or elsewhere. the withdrawal of its fighters to their villages, UN classification of “Al-Nusra front” as a In this intensive paper, we will try to without any military balanced action. terrorist organization. address three themes: the structure of According to several sources, the “HTS”, In practice “Al-Nusra Front’ has not HTS, its role in the Syrian conflict, and which includes in its ranks about 25 yet received the fate of ISIS. The two the possible scenarios it faces. thousand affiliated between fighters, organizations have virtually separated leaders and legislators. About 20% of them since April 2013, when al-Julani rejected Structural Properties are foreigners (mainly from Jordan, Saudi Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s statements that HTS relies on a structure derived from the Arabia, Tunisia, Egypt, and some South “Al-Nusra” had merged with ISIS and basic composition of “Al-Nusra Front”, taking Asian countries) and the rest are Syrians, pledged allegiance to “Al-Qaeda». into account the role of other factions that who were recruited during the conflict from There are key elements that have played it shares with it in leadership and work, many regions. a crucial role in the survival of “Al-Nusra especially as some other movements have The HTS adopted a strategy to control Front”, its disintegration, or its expo- joined the organization as a natural out- governance in its regions of influence, of sure to the fate of ISIS, especially the come of the balance of power and fearing of which Idlib governorate is the center of structure of both. “Al-Nusra” insisted fighting a losing war. The Nour al-Din al-Zan- its gravity, in three stages: starting with

Source: nedaa-sy.com

Issue 11 / September 2019 Issue 11 / September 2019 35 nesting to create an acceptance environ- imposed on commercial traffic during the exchanged between bin Laden and intellec- ment, then building and expanding the crossings, which fought fierce wars with the tual leaders, to the need to correct the path context, and finally the domination. The other factions for control, as well as certain through integration in Arab and Muslim Commission’s domestic system is based financial ratios obtained by it in return for societies, even if it led to change the on three tools, embodied in organizational allowing and providing protection Civil soci- name of “Al Qaeda” itself, and adopt other structures: the General Directorate of ety organizations operating in their regions, headlines, to improve the image, politically, Services for the provision of social services, as well as resources from the investment of media and popular. the military and security wing for the imple- public property. The period of Arab revolutions reinforced mentation of coercion policy, and the Ad- The position of the “ Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham the importance of these revisions and vocacy and Guidance Office (as well as the “ in the Syrian Jihadi Square made them public. During the first phase houses of the judiciary) to spread ideology. After the failure of the “Iraqi Jihad” of these revolutions, we find a series of In implementing this strategy, it was based on an institutional structure quite similar to that adopted by the regime’s Syrian government (while, by comparison, Jaysh al-Islam relied on an institutional structure and mechanism similar to the Lebanese Hezbollah, which confirms that jihadi leaders are aware of and benefit from existing governance experiences) Its tool was to contain local councils, which represented an opportunity to pass the Commission’s strategy, but also posed a threat to them if they were independent. The number of local councils in areas outside the control of the Syrian regime reached its peak in 2014 with 950 local councils, while the current number is estimated to be only 320, including 156 in Idlib governorate, and 81 local councils in the areas controlled by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sh- am, distributed according to the following administrative bodies: 14% City Council, 39% Town Council, 47% Municipality Coun- cil, in addition to the presence of 43 Village Councils. HTS adopts a reformist approach to local councils, with patterns ranging from reform cooperation, containment, experiment, al-Qaida conducted extensive articles and letters to leaders in Al-Qaeda infiltration, and exclusion. It has worked to intellectual and organizational reviews, and that reflect their anxiety over the loss of the enable the gradual establishment of Islam- the papers contained in those reviews were Arab and Islamic street and show attempts ic rule through giving the local population already found in Osama bin Laden’s hide- by these leaders to what we might call an the importance of being the main actor out when he was killed. These important “ideological adaptation”, through which with the ability to raise or abort the project. documents reveal the dissatisfaction of the the Salafi-jihadi speech and its movements HTS focuses on the most vital services leadership of al-Qaeda in the course of the are developed so as not to clash with for the population, through which it can Iraqi branch, during the era of Abu Musab the movement of peaceful peoples, but influence and control local councils, such al-Zarqawi, through the announcement of retaining the “hard core” in this ideology, as water and electricity. HTS is also working the establishment of the “Islamic State in which is based on the principle of govern- to vacate service positions with Syrian Iraq,” which contains a clear recognition of ance and the application of Islamic law, elements, predominantly local (British local the failures of the network in attracting the and confront the United States, but with a model) to enable them to build positive support of the Arab street in general, and response consider the peaceful option to relations with the local population. In serious mistakes by some branches Ssuch the popular movement for the application return, they receive taxes for their services, as the expansion of operations, which of Islamic law. which is an important source of funding leads to the killing of innocent civilians. The revisions emerged from the idea of for these services, in addition to the fees These documents, which are messages “Ansar al-Sharia”, which took practical appli-

36 Issue 11 / September 2019 cations in Yemen and Tunisia, and find reso- law in countries and societies that get rid of establishes to build “Islamic Resistance nance in the name of the front itself, which Arab regimes, on the other. Brigades” and the concept of individual is “Al-Nusra”, which is based on the need to By following the behavior of “Al-Nusra”, its jihad, and transforms jihad into a nation integrate into the peoples and pay attention integration into society and its search for project, through the creation of cells to public issues, in the face of tyranny, and supporters in the local community and the combining thought, belief, and purpose, the establishment of the Islamic system, results of the central base revisions, there without being in an organization based on and direct the revolutionary option towards is a great symmetry, which explains the the structure of traditional organizations. Islamism, but still outside the parliament keenness of “Al-Nusra” and Al-Qaeda at the Abu Musab al-Suri concludes that global and the limits of the political game. outset not to refer to Al-Nusra’s relationship jihadist thought consists of a mixture (the The idea of Ansar al-Sharia is based on a with the center or the Iraqi branch to avoid basics of the Brotherhood’s ideology, plus shift from qualitative military action of a the mistakes made by the organization in the dynamic approach of the martyr Sayyid Iraq, and the blindness of the intelligence Qutb, the political jurisprudence of Imam services, and to facilitate the course of work Ibn Taymiyyah and the Salafi school, the with other armed factions in accordance doctrinal doctrinal heritage of the Wahhabi with the approach “Ansar”. According to Call, and the legitimate political approach the “new approach,” they must move away of the jihadi movement). from the declaration of belonging to al-Qa- Thus, the HTS relied on the experiences eda, in order not to give the Syrian regime of “Al-Qaeda” and its branches in relation the justification for suppressing the revolu- to the necessity of selective and gradual tion under the pretext of fighting “terror- application of Islamic Sharia law in order to ism”, and not to provoke the United States, avoid a clash with the local population. and to avoid provoking the social incubator The Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham differs from necessary to bring more supporters. But its main competitors in the Syrian Jihad Abu Mohammed al-Julani, the “emir of arena. While ISIS has relied entirely on Al-Nusra Front”, was forced to reveal his foreigners, regardless of local elements, relationship with al-Qaeda after Baghdadi’s and it considered its project to be part of or announcement of the establishment of the a complement to the global jihad project, Islamic State in Iraq and Sham, Zawahiri Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham believes that it is said:” We were surprised by the announce- more concerned with the local community, ment - the Iraqi branch’s announcement in and that in order to succeed in spreading April 2013 to include Al-Nusra Front - which its call, its jihad must be confined to the provided the Syrian regime and the US with Syrian arena. an opportunity they wished for, as well as: While the Army of Islam was a portrait of “Make the people Sham to wonder what the Lebanese Hezbollah (prior to 2006) this Qaeda that brings disasters to us? Is of being a specific regional situation, Source:ebaa.news not it enough Bashar? Do they want to it received the support of the scientific bring us America as well?” Salafism (Sheikh Muath al-Khatib), purely military nature to popular media and Al-Nusra leadership found its way to confined to the suburb of (Douma), trying peaceful public action, under the slogan promote the new approcah in the books to build a country away from politics. The “the application of Islamic law” and “the and vision of Abu Musab al-Suri, one of the HTS aspires to build a model of Islamic rule promotion of virtue and the prevention theorists of Salafi jihadism. He developed that encompasses all of Syria’s geography, of evil”, a qualitative and significant shift his own vision based on the legacy of the away from scientific Salafism, towards a compared to the previous stages of the de- Salafist movement, represented by Sayyid militant-jihadist Salafism, which considers velopment of the Salafi jihadi ideology that Qutb and Abdullah Azzam, passing by jihad not only as an ideological content of a it turned to military action and shifted in Marwan Hadid, and leaning on the concept specific organizational tendency, but rather the late 1990s from fighting the “near ene- of “the miserable war”. The writings of a cult and a strict obligation whether or not my” of Arab regimes to the “distant enemy” Abu Musab al-Suri are the main reference you can apply it. which is the United States. There is now a authority for Abu Muhammad al-Julani, While the Ahrar al-Sham movement sought merger in the dimensions of the conflict, the official of al-Nusra Front, especially his to gain revolutionary legitimacy from the between maintaining the “globalization of books: “Notes on the Jihadist Experience in spectacle of jihadi violence, “Al-Nusra jihad” and clashing with the United States Syria”, Ahl al-Sham in the Face of Nusayris, Front” was interested in representing the on the one hand, and seeking to exploit the the Crusaders and the Jews”, and his revolution, only when it turned into the HTS wave of popular revolutionary movement most important book, “The Call of the became, at a later stage, because the revolu- to push towards the application of Islamic International Islamic Resistance”, which tion was an undue act. On the right Sharia.

Issue 11 / September 2019 Issue 11 / September 2019 37 In its early stages, “Al-Nusra Front” reject- Syrian side of the Syrian-Turkish border References ed the flag of the revolution in favor of the and confining it to a small geographical Ayman Al-Dessouki, Local Governance of black flag. It considers that the concept area, through which it exerts its influence Jihadi Movements and their Perspectives of revolution itself is problematic. The narrowly, while expanding its service on Local Councils: “Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham” reason is that the revolution is a popular and organizational influence through the in Idlib Governorate as a model (Omran phenomenon, that is, it is the people with government of salvation. In this space, Center for Strategic Studies, 2017). its various components who take the it will become the sole and only player, initiative, while this is the duty of the jihadi and by virtue of the new circumstance, Mohammed Abu Rumman, Salafi Jihadism: vanguard, which has to monopoly of legiti- it will abandon the “enabling empower- ISIS and Al-Nusra from the management of macy as an engine and a leading element ment” and “spreading the call” in favor of savage to the Doctrine of Blood, Journal of of political action. Opposition to the prin- coercion. Palestine Studies, No. 101, winter 2015. ciple of elections, not only because of the The other scenario is a Turkish-Russian possibility that the majority violates the agreement to end the “HTS” military, and Thomas Perrier, Islamic Hay’at al-Sham: principles of Sharia (the problem of the expel it from all of Syria, in the interest of Salafi Dynamics vs. “The Regime of philosophical democracy for the jihadists) restoring the regime to northwestern Syria, Jihadists”, Lecture delivered in the context - but this rejection is the result of an elitist in exchange for Turkish penetration in of the symposium organized by the Arab vanguard concept of political leadership. northeastern Syria, to create a safe area. Center for Research and Policy Studies on The right is not with the majority, but with The last scenario remains derived from the occasion of the 7th anniversary of the a vanguard, or an elite, that believes in the writings of Abu Musab al-Suri is to rely Syrian Revolution. jihad and has already demonstrated its on individual jihad, or what has become commitment to jihad known as individual wolves. Hamza Al-Mustafa, Assessing the Trans- In conclusion, the determinants of the formations of Syrian Islamic Movements, Fate and scenarios transformation of Islamic movements in Lecture delivered in the context of the Idlib governorate in northwestern Syria Syria depend on the charisma of the lead- symposium organized by the Arab Center is the center of gravity of the HTS and its er, as well as on dynamic local engines. for Research and Policy Studies on the main sphere of influence, so the HTS’s Therefore, these movements, especially occasion of the seventh anniversary of the fate depends heavily on the results of the traditional ones, have the ability to Syrian revolution. the regime’s military battle and Russia is adapt to defeat and relaunch. They can currently on the province. And the extent to reproduce themselves because they have Akram Hijazi, A Journey In The Mind Of which Turkey, currently the main supporter the resources, thought, references, and Salafi Jihadism: Al-Qaida as a Model, Arab of the Commission, is committed to it. charismatic historical leaderships that can Jerusalem, Monday, August 21, 2006. We have several scenarios, including: quickly form a new solid core alternative to The withdrawal of HTS to the north to the those defeated.

appendixes

Scheme 1: The Structure of the Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham

Commander-in-Chief of the “ Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham”

Shura Council

Media Economic Service Security Political Judicial Department Military Section Section Department of Advocacy Section Negotiation “General General Section Section “News “Advocacy and “Brigade of Office Economic Administration of “courthouse” Agency” Bureau” Services” Guidance Office” punishment ”

38 Issue 11 / September 2019 Scheme 2: Structure of the General Administration of Services in Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham

Central Department of Public Services

Agriculture and Technical Water and Electricity Mills Irrigation Est Services Est Sanitation Est Corporation & Bakers Est

Directorate of Directorate Directorate Agriculture and of Technical of Water and Directorate of Director of Mills Irrigation Services Sanitation Electricity and Ovens

Scheme 3: Municipal structure

Mayor

Deputy Mayor for Engineering Affairs

Technical Financial Agricultural Hygiene Police Administrative Office Office Office Office Office

Mohammed Halaq al-Jerf Syrian writer and a journalist, has worked in a number of Syrian publications, as well as political and civil activist.

Issue 11 / September 2019 Issue 11 / September 2019 39 The Syrian Tax System: LACK OF JUSTICE AND PREDOMINANCE OF CORRUPTION

Tax revenues are among the main sources of the public budget in the State, to finance their public expenditures, and an effective means to intervene in economic and social life. Therefore, they play a key role in the realization of the objectives of the State’s fiscal policy. To achieve these objectives, an appropriate tax system should be chosen, reflecting the characteristics and features of the economic system, in the Syrian case, the follower of this tax system, will see the obvious imbalance, in that the collection of income taxes are equal for the high, middle and low income classes, and did not achieve the purpose for which the tax system was established to redistribute the income among the members of society, and not to impose high tax rates on high incomes and lower rates on middle and low incomes, the tax on commercial and industrial profits are one of the most important taxes in the Syrian tax legislation, but the question remains the same which has been repeated for decades ago till now, have all the taxpayers submitted their correct and proper declarations to the official financial institutions, or have they manipulated their submitted data and their profit rates? Have they been held accountable? So that the tax does not fall on some part of the community, while other sections evade partly or wholly from them !!

Mohamed Mustafa Eid

40 Issue 11 / September 2019 Source: REUTERS

ax administration is the tool for the implementation of the tax system, so addressing it basically raises the Tquestion of the efficiency of its perfor- mance, as one of the distinctive tools to ensure the real and effective functioning of the various functions and activities that enable users and financiers to exercise their duties and rights to the fullest, but when we want to compare the objectives of the real tax systems, which are supposed to go on a sound basis, and have a real disclosure, to the thresholds that should be taxed, we conclude that the tax situation in Syria, has broken the base of those tax systems, and did not achieve their objectives, both in terms of providing a sufficient and lasting tax revenue, which can be relied upon to provide the necessary requirements for the development of the various economic sectors and to achieve the required development, and the social goal of redistribution of wealth

Issue 11 / September 2019 Issue 11 / September 2019 41 among citizens. In principle, taxation evasion, in the absence of the financial does not mean that the tax exemption is should be for the most part, on high-in- courts in Syria, unlike the rest of the an essential factor for encouraging and come earners, but in fact we find that the world, which deprived the public treasury attracting the investments. The serious taxes are imposed on low-income people, of a huge financial bloc, the principle investor is not interested in tax exemp- especially those working in government of escalating taxation, contributes to tions, as much as he is concerned about and private departments, are somewhat correct the distortions in the distribution the reasonableness and moderation of close to taxes imposed on shops, and at of income, and contributes to generalize the tax system. That means there are no this point, talk about tax evasion, due to the social well-being, so it is not confined high taxes and fees and there is no dou- the absence of a legal deterrent punish- to a narrow category, and the tax system ble taxation or a complex tax policy. Tax ment, this led to a state of excessive tax is part of the investment climate. This exemptions themselves attract only the

42 Issue 11 / September 2019 worst types of investors. In the case of the basic elements of investment, there is no need to grant special privileges, or grant tax exemptions to attract investments, especially the foreign ones. The reality of the tax system The tax system in Syria went through several periods after the independence, culminating in the issuance of Law No. 85 in 1949 under the rule of Hosni al-Zaim, to identify the sources of income and the imposed taxes and fees, and then the Basic Financial Law of the State No. 96 of 1967 was issued, which recognized that the state is commercial or industrial figure is obliged to pay taxes such as the private sector. In the period 1985-2000, a number of decrees were issued, most notably was the Expatriates Law No. 19 of 1990, granting multiple customs exemptions for expatriate Syrians wishing to return and establish projects inside the country, and the Investment Law No. 10 of 1991, granting tax exemptions to investors for five years and full exemption from customs duties at the time of the establishment of the project and it was amended in 2000 in Law No. 7 to increase tax exemptions for the investment projects and reduce the income tax of joint-stock companies from 32 % to 25 %. During the period of Mustafa Miro’s government in 2003, government efforts to develop and modernize the tax system emerged. His government prepared the Income Tax Law No. 24 of 2003. After its submission to the People’s Assembly, experts reported that it was a reproduc- tion of Decree No. 85, that it did not meet the aspirations, and did not agree with contemporary data, so it was not adopted. However, the law itself was re-adopted during Naji Otri’s government without any amendments or re-examination. While old taxes and fees that were no longer viable (eg livestock, expatriate, machinery tax, etc.) were abolished, the method of estimating the value of the tax place remained subject to the ““Qualitative Tax”

Issue 11 / September 2019 Issue 11 / September 2019 43 resources, as a result of the cessation of the production wheel, and deprivation of oil resources and foreign trade resources, tourism and other services and rentals, so the successive public budgets in the country was characterized by modest revenue tax revenues, and did not reach at best 35% of the size of the general revenue, which comes mostly from fixed income taxes, tax salaries, wages, and taxes levied on companies and public sector organizations, and is characterized by a low revenue and high costs. Tax evasion The cause of the low tax collection, compared to the size of taxation, is tax evasion, which was not the result of the Syrian crisis, but is a phenomenon that spans for decades, and the main reason lies in the widespread of corruption in tax collection, so tax evasion is often considered a big problem, that strongly affects the state’s resources, economic perfor- system. Since then, the Syrian govern- this confirms the large tax evasion of the mance, and the moral structure of society, ment has been working on a new draft of private sector, and the deprivation of the which relates to taxpayers, who provide the tax system to take into account the public treasury of additional resources, false tax data, where the real numbers requirements of the Syrian situation and which could have been invested in new of tax evasion are absent in Syria, and it the next stage. This is revealed by the Syri- investment places, in statistics dating can be said that the volume of tax evasion an Minister of Finance Mamoun Hamdan back to five years before the crisis, the of has increased significantly during the in press statements this year 2019, that contribution the private sector percent- years of the crisis, raising the estimated the new tax system is almost ready for age was estimated of 65% of the GDP, value of it by more than 400 billion Syrian Ministry of Finance table. It is based on while taxes and fees paid by the sector pounds, divided between tax evasion and the taxation of sales using electronic averaged about 2% of GDP, compared to customs, according to experts in finance payment methods, and will not rely on the public sector, which paid more than and tax, who estimated the volume of tax the data provided by the taxpayer, but will 4% on average during the same period. evasion among the big taxpayers is about be approved verification and electronic Its contribution in gross domestic product 70%, which constitutes depriving the collection, as well as work on the issuance was more than 35%, we can see the public treasury of great resources, while of the law of real estate sales, and will be extent of the existing tax evasion and the we find the Syrian Minister of Finance solely the seller to pay the tax only. extent to which the public treasury was Mamoun Hamdan in press statements, Since taxes are one of the main pillars on deprived of financial resources that could has gone in a direction that contradicts which the public treasury depends, and in have been used to cover its expenses. the reality, bearing the lump sum income Syria, they have not found their position The general characteristic of the Syrian as the most tax evasion, considering among the main pillars as an important tax system is its laxity, and its reliance on that the segment of the top taxpayers resource for the state treasury, and taxes tax laws and regulations that were devel- record the greater commitment to tax have not occupied an important position oped during the first decades of the last administration, but there are examples among the Syrian people, convinced that century, althoughthe tax policy is one of that contradict the minister’s argument. the tax paid is not in the public interest. the most important elements of fiscal poli- For example, Syria-Tel total net profit in In a simple comparison between the pub- cies within the Syrian economy, especially 2018 was 58.5 billion Syrian pounds, lic and private sectors in taxation, we find in such circumstances where Syria suffers and the company pays only 10%, while it a wide gap between the two sectors, and from a significant decline in the financial is supposed to pay 14% according to the

44 Issue 11 / September 2019 granted facilities, where the percentage of tion in the years preceding the crisis, it is and legislation, where the dependence on real profits tax in other joint-stock compa- estimated in dollars. those who carry out executive work to put nies is 22%, and thus the public treasury, Although the tax administration imposed and develop the legislation, and they are and an inventory account discretionary, many indirect taxes and new fees during not specialists, which led to distortions has lost from the unpaid tax by the the years of the crisis, but the tax receipts by converting most direct taxes into fees, company about 5 billion Syrian pounds, in decreased significantly, for example, such as Law 60, Law 41, Decree 51, 52, addition to what it must pay as its peers of the public treasury collections of the and others. From what has been reviewed shareholding companies 6.8 billion Syrian consumer spending fee during the first of the tax reality and its laxity in Syria was pounds, that if it is calculated based on half of 2015 amounted to only 13 billion not only confined to the Syrian crisis, it ratios of 22% thus, the total tax which the Syrian pounds, equivalent to 26 million goes back more than five decades, The public treasury is deprived from by the dollars comparing to the same period tax system in Syria can be summarized in company is 3.9 billion Syrian pounds. of 2011, about 30 billion Syrian pounds, number of points: The role of the General Directorate of we see a decrease of about 57%, and if - The laxity of the tax system and its Customs and its role in the loss of an we change the last figure to the dollar dependence on tax laws and legislation important part of the money on the state at the exchange rate at the time which dating back to the 1950s. treasury cannot be overlooked, under the was 50 Syrian pounds, it is equivalent to - The absence of deterrent punishment in corruption of the regulations of the Di- 600 million US $. Here the scale of the the law such as imprisonment, which con- rectorate, the widespread bribery among disaster is clear, where the inflation is de- tributed to the persistence of tax evasion, employees, and the issuance of incorrect vouring the country’s finances, the rate of in the absence of financial courts in Syria. customs data, by placing inaccurate decline is more than 95%, which means - Lack of tax justice towards taxpayers, pricing on the customs declaration for that the recent figures related to the high because of the lack of clarity and ambi- the sake of the taxpayers, and not to pay amounts in tax collection are not real, guity of legislation, where tax evasion the real tax obligations, in return for the if we compare the exchange rate of the has become a phenomenon in the Syrian amounts paid by the taxpayer to some of- dollar against the Syrian pound, although economy. ficials in the customs administration and the government’s financial statement in - Ignoring the taxation of the wealthy who its elements, which deprives a large return 2017 stated that there is an increase in got their fortunes. of financial values to enter the budget, the total revenues of fees and taxes by - The Ministry of Finance has not yet been and this matter can be corrected only if 27.24 % from 2016, by 69 billion Syrian able to issue an appropriate modern tax law. an electronic customs system is adopted, pounds, registered 322 billion Syrian - Absence of the billing system, which is a away from the random estimates, which pounds, which means that the estimated main condition for a fair tax system. have contributed to opening a large win- total revenues of fees and taxes in 2016 dow of corruption in the customs sector. amounted to 253 billion Syrian pounds, and therefore the revenues from net taxes The crisis reduces the tax collections according to the Office of Statistics, are Many sources point to a significant over 49% of the total estimated all types decline in the volume of tax receipts of of taxes and fees in the general budget, the state during the past years, except in where the Syrian government estimated 2011, in which the state controlled the the revenues of taxes and fees in its gen- entire Syrian territory, where the tax rev- eral budget for 2019 about 563 million enues amounted to about 405 billion Syri- Syrian pounds, compared to about 410 an pounds (150 billion of which is from million Syrian pounds in 2018. Damascus, which currently pays nearly 80% of the tax collection, according to Summary: sources in the Ministry of Finance, to In spite of the creation of a General decline in 2013 to about 164 billion, then Authority for Taxes and Fees in Law No. reached 186 billion in 2014 and exceeded 41 of 2007 in the hope that its role will 200 billion in 2015, or about 365 million be to propose and implement the tax Mohamed Mustafa Eid dollars according to the average exchange policy in light of the general financial and a Syrian writer and journalist specialized in economic affairs, has rate in 2015. This figure represents no economic policy of the State, but the worked in numerous media and more than 6% of the average tax collec- imbalance lies in the tax administration Arab institutions.

Issue 11 / September 2019 Issue 11 / September 2019 45 Source: tahrir-syria.info

THE DEFEATED IDEOLOGY IN SYRIA

During the years following the popular uprising in Syria, the issue of ideology was not subjected to any real accountability. Everyone was preoccupied with the issue of power. With no peaceful possibility of regime change, the popular movement became an armed conflict, imposed primarily by the regime’s structure, and the main concern for the parties of the conflict is undermining the military potential of the other, in a war which one of its features is the struggle for geography.

Husam Miro

he Syrian intellectual on the principle of the “historical miss- the causes of defeat. Yassin al-Hafez was the es” in order to describe the historical In this article, we do not attempt to re- most busy of his gen- ground on which the defeated ideology claim the phrase “historical misses” in the eration to dismantle was founded, and in his adoption of the context put forward by Hafez, but we also the defeated ideology, “historical misses” there is an attempt to do not neglect it, and our endeavor here Tin the context of his dismantling of the break out the economic / Marxist analy- is to identify the defeated ideologies in the defeat of the Arabs in 1967, and relied sis, which Hafiz found unable to analyze Syrian war, and to identify initial features

46 Issue 11 / September 2019 of the ideology that can have a historic tion of ideological accountability. Of course, the Arab nationalist crisis opportunity in rebuilding Syria and writing In the Syrian context we have three forms cannot be compared with the Kurdish a new history of it. of ideology: nationalist one, but it cannot be arbitrarily The main problem that confronts us, and 1. The national ideology, whose main and automatically separated. The reasons any researcher in an ideological matter, current is the nationalist / Arab trend, of for the rise of nationalism in the Middle is the definition of ideology as a “false Baath and Nasserists. In the same con- East have changed completely, and it is consciousness of reality.” In an attempt text, we have a national ideology for other no longer possible to rely on the ideology to put a major end to this obstacle, ethnic groups, especially the Kurds. alone to build a nationalist tribalism. we will rely on a simplistic, but initial, 2. The Islamic ideology: Its historical The rise of the Arab nationalist movement principle definition of ideology, as “a set pillar is the Muslim Brotherhood, in addi- has been linked to a number of factors, of perceptions, visions and ideas.” . As a tion to the Salafi trend. the most important of which are the Cold return to the most common definition of 3. The Internationalist ideology: Histori- War, the coming out of the Mandates from the Age of Lights. cally represented by the various Commu- the Arab world, the beginning of perceiv- Our need here to approach the ideology nist parties, their role has been complete- ing the identity, theorizing it, and working is dual, on the one hand, from our point ly absent during the past years. on political projects based on identity of view we cannot approach On the one The way these three trends interacted with itself, within the framework of identity / hand, from our point of view, we cannot the war, especially in their displacement ideology. approach the policy as a practice far from and intersection with the sub-identities, The national trend, which has historical the ideology on which it is based, nor is imposed on them major transformations. limitations, is largely applicable to the it possible to rely on a new political birth There has been a setback within all these Islamic trend, despite the different paths, without relying on a different ideological currents, and revealed that the ideological positions, and alliances, which are the approach to political practice. Therefore, structures of these currents reached a differences that led to a major dilemma, we to a large extent rely on the issue of historical dilemma, indicating their exhaus- which represented in the rise of the ideology, and in a more precise descrip- tion of the reasons of their existence. Salafi-jihadi trend as an alternative to political Islam. The historical refraction of the Arab nationalist movement, the loss of the legitimacy of historical obligations, and the lack of transformations in thought, ideology and practice, led to some kind of fascism, in the face of others, exposed its national project to limited objectives, which has been reduced to the limits of the acquisition of power, at all costs. The Kurdish nationalist movement, which has been allowed by the data of the past years to rise, especially the decline of the authority of the Center in Damascus, which also suffering from major crises, especially the lack of international data, allow the advancement of the national project in Syria, but that the maximum that such data can go is to be invested as a temporary phase, in the context of conflict between external parties, not in the context of an international process, for the recognition of national rights. The political Islam, represented by the “Muslim Source: albayan.ae Brotherhood”, relied on the

Issue 11 / September 2019 Issue 11 / September 2019 47 Source: jusoor.co external factor in its struggle for power, solution such as the Lebanese Taif Accord, populist (subnational) currents, while lib- and the authority in Damascus relied on even if it does not take the direct religious erals, especially liberals / democrats, are the outside to stay in power. The issue or sectarian formula, or failing to do so, simply individuals or small political forces of power defined its compass, not the and go towards liberal political currents. unable to make any significant difference. political change, as it entered the game of The first option is fueled by regional and Nevertheless, the main national task that representing the Sunni majority in Syria, international forces, which have become imposes itself as a possibility and a duty is like a deaf block, with no differences the main players in the Syrian theater, to develop a liberal / democratic current. between them. because it keeps all Syrian political struc- Otherwise, the fate of Syria, even if there The international movement, which is tures in constant need of outside forces, is a political solution, will not be far from actually the weakest, all its sections and prevents the emergence of effective disguised sectarian quotas. have suffered from the process of loyalty national forces, cross-sectarian, and most and convergence under the banner of current data indicates that the regional the national trend, the Arab and Kurdish and international consensus goes in this branches, or the political Islam, as in direction . the case of the “People’s Party” (Political On the one hand, the chances of the Bureau - Communist Party). liberal current in Syria appear strong and Power has been a goal in the ongoing weak on the other. As the three ideolog- conflict, and while it is not possible to ical currents are exposed abroad and change the structure of the political return to the sub-identities, there is a new regime without changing the political awareness of the need to transcend these power, but what has been emphasized is ideologies. This gives the opportunity for the power, not the structure of power, and transnational liberal political forces to the war has fed all possibilities for a return emerge, but at the same time, the data of to subnational structures (sectarianism, the war, such as the diaspora, the domi- regionalism, tribalism), to gain the legiti- nation of the outside, and the infiltration macy, reflected in the actual practices of of political money, are all factors inhibiting Husam Miro the three previous political currents. the development of a strong and current Syrian researcher and writer in strategic affairs, has worked in many In Syria, there are only two options. liberal trend. media and research institutions and The first is to stabilize the sub-national Transnational ideologies have been is a co-researcher in a number of ideological structures through a political defeated in the war years and replaced by Arab development reports.

48 Issue 11 / September 2019