A New War on Interests and Five Major Challenges Contents

Published in Dusseldorf - Germany Issue 11 / September 2019 The Syrian file Demographic, Administrative and Social Change In Afrin The Safe Zone In The Northern Of Syria Is Between Turkey’s Ambitions And the Limits Of Domestic And International Consensus Point of view The Regional file The Defeated Ideology Strait Of Hormuz And The in Syria Future Of Security And Politics In The Persian Gulf The Internatonal file America And The Escalating The Conflict In The Chinese Neighborhood The Security and military file Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham HTS: The Mechanism Of Monopoliz- ing Jihadist Representation In The Syrian Arena The Economic file The Syrian Tax System: Lack Of Justice And Predominance Of Corruption Reconstruction: A New War On Interests And Five Major Challenges Contents The Editorial 04 The Safe Zone And The Struggle Of Agendas The Syrian file 06 Reconstruction: A New War On In- terests And Five Major Challenges 10 Demographic, Administrative and Social Change In Afrin 14 The Safe Zone In The Northern Of Syria Is Between Turkey’s Ambi- tions And the Limits Of Domestic 04 And International Consensus The Regional file 20 Strait Of Hormuz And The Future Of Security And Politics In The Persian Gulf The Internatonal file 26 America And The Escalating The Con- flict In The Chinese Neighborhood The Security and military file 10 32 Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham HTS: The Mechanism Of Monopolizing Jihadist Representation In The Syrian Arena The Economic file 40 The Syrian Tax System: Lack Of Justice And Predominance Of Corruption Point of view 26 46 The Defeated Ideology in Syria 32 46 2 Issue 11 / September 2019 A monthly strategic political journal issued by the Chief in editor Asbar Center for Studies and Research Salah al-Din Bilal Managing editor A magazine specializing in strategic thought, providing a Husam Miro political analysis of the files concerned by the magazine, emphasizing the use of authentic approaches in the Editorial Board analysis of phenomena and events, away from ideology, Mohamed Halaq Al-Jarf and the «Asbar files» integrated with the work of the Center, in promoting the awareness of the different Art Director dimensions of political practices. Abdul Hamid Ali The editorial board bears no responsibility for any infringement of intellectual property rights. cover REUTERS/Ali Hashisho The opinions expressed in the magazine reflect the opinion of the authors. Republishing or citation is only allowed after obtaining a license from the magazine’s management. All correspondences are sent via e-mail: Contributions to the Journal shall not be [email protected] published in any magazine or any book. 46 @Asbarme fb.com/asbarme www.asbarme.com Issue 11 / September 2019 The Safe Zone And The Struggle Of Agendas Turkey’s quest for a so-called “safe zone” in northeastern Syria is not out of the way of the struggle to determine the gains of the forces involved in the Syrian conflict. Russia has achieved a large part of its agenda, especially with the demarcation of the military conflict away from the capital Damascus and its south, and securing a large strategic presence in the Mediterranean, but the end of the Syrian game still needs a few more moves on the chessboard. In spite of the US-Turkish agreement to estab- lish a safe zone, the US deal with this agreement comes in the form of the “constructive ambiguity”, which leaves the United States with Salah Eldin Bilal a great margin to determine its features, ie determining the extent of the Turkish gains from Syrian wiriter and politician, it, especially since the US position about Turkey director of Asbar Center Studies goes beyond the Syrian file to the regional and international dimensions. 4 Issue 11 / September 2019 ment with Turkey a step against their strategic interests in Syria and the Middle East, and from this logic, on the one hand, they rely on the size of the strategic differ- ences between Ankara and Washington, and on the other hand to re-mix the cards in the east of the Euphrates, especially as the Syrian government seeks to rebuild bridges with Arabic components in Raqqa and Deir Ezzor. The various parties are aware that Wash- ington has a lot of paper to use, in order to prevent any final understanding between Moscow and Ankara. On the one hand, there are military proposals to expand the US military base in Al-Tanf, and a political proposal based on the involvement of SDF in the political negotiations along with the official Syrian opposition club, which largely represents the Turkish interests. As for the “Syrian Democratic Forces”, especially the Kurds, they take into account the Afrin scenario and seek not to repeat it, so the idea of negotiations with Ankara On the ground, the infrastructure for missile operation of NATO. does not seem rejected, but it is based on continued American The idea of the safe zone in Syria is unac- the principle of caution in the first place, presence in north- ceptable to Europe and the Arab world. and it is clear that the Kurdish leaders, eastern Syria makes Consolidating the principle of partition, after statements by President Trump to it able to define the cutting off Syrian territory, to satisfy oppo- withdraw from Syria, has lost much of its final arrangements sition groups following Turkey ideologically, confidence in the US ally. in that region, and and transforming the region into a ‘Crédor’ The Syrian regime, and Iran, aspire to a Ato define the political form of the Syrian along the Syrian-Turkish border, to include total restoration of the northern regions, solution. It does not seem to be in a hurry the Euphrates Shield (Al-Bab and Al-Rai) relying heavily on the shortage of Russian to draw the final roadmap. It took its time and Olive Branch (Afrin) and the areas of ground forces in Syria, and contradictions to arrange a small file like Manbij file, which the government of the Salvation (Idlib), to between other players, allowing them to now leaves empty spaces in the agreement consolidate and extend the control of Is- expand east of the Euphrates, which could with Turkey about the safe area, which lamic and extreme factions and the armed mean arrangements between the Syrian annoys Ankara, which insists on the details groups affiliated to Turkey. The European regime and Ankara, that aim at reducing of that region, while the United States ad- and Arab rejection of that region comes out both US and Russian influence. heres to the idea of working together, and of the fact that no reconstruction process Idlib and the Euphrates files go hand in organize that area through joint military will be launched in Syria unless this coun- hand, and it is clear, given the size of the arrangements, while staying away from any try witnessed a comprehensive political contradictions between the players, that proposition concerns the subsequent civil transition. It meant that partial programs any talk about the final form of these files arrangements and the administrative form, would not be approved for certain parts is premature, not only the obstacles are especially the local councils, as in Afrin. of Syria, serving only specific regional related to the interests and the conflicts of With Ankara receiving the S400 missiles agendas. large countries, but also the fact that these from Russia, Ankara has used one of its Despite the decline in the Arab and files include large domestic obstacles, most important cards, to pressure Wash- European roles in the Syrian event, but the due to the large population bloc in eastern ington, which was quick to deprive Ankara Russian player, the most importantly, put it Euphrates and in Idlib, in addition to the of all previous privileges regarding the takes the two positions of the Arab and Eu- escalation of ethnic conflict, the extreme production program of the F-35, with full ropean in its consideration, as a new stage and Islamic forces in Idlib, and their fate, if knowledge of the major technical obstacles in Syria can’t be put without major Arab the parties reached a form and mecha- to Ankara’s operation of the Russian mis- and European reconstruction programs. nism that delineates the borders of the sile system, which is incompatible with the The Russians find in any US rapproche- interests. Issue 11 / September 2019 5 Reconstruction: A NEW WAR ON INTERESTS AND FIVE MAJOR CHALLENGES It is no longer a secret that the next conflict between local, regional, and international forces after the end of the Syrian war is in large part a struggle for quotas in the reconstruction process. All the forces involved in this war have invested a lot of money, and are counting on the recovery of those funds, and make long-term profits, through various projects. Also, it is no longer a secret that the major countries have discussed the issue of reconstruction with many Syrian parties, including businessmen, opposition bodies, and research centers in the Gulf and Europe, and the discussions have taken different levels, as the road map of reconstruction faces the nature of the conflicting interests of the parties involved. The conflict, and its expectations for the future of Syria. Asbar-Policy Analysis Unit: o, it is war in 2018, which aroused great criticism, but at would be known in the following years, and another form, the same time, it is on the table to negoti- since then, after the release of the Geneva which can be said ate, or what the makers of the narrow circle Declaration on 30th of June in 2012, the to be a war no less of the regime hope for.

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