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Population and Development Review, Volume 26, Number 1

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Population and Development Review, Volume 26, Number 1 POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW Kenneth Prewitt The US decennial VOLUME 26 NUMBER 1 census: Political questions, scientific M A R C H 2 0 0 0 answers Melissa Leach and James Fairhead Challenging neo-Malthusian deforestation analyses in West Africa Simon Szreter and Eilidh Garrett Reproduction, compositional demography, and economic growth in early modern England Margaret E. Greene and Ann E. Biddlecom Demographic accounts of male reproductive roles Notes and Commentary J.C. Caldwell on rethinking the African AIDS epidemic Data and Perspectives R. Lee on long-term population projections and the US Social Security System Archives Emile Zola against Malthusianism Book Reviews Review essays by P. Streeten and V. Smil; reviews by T.J. Espenshade, D.G. Papademetriou, J. Horn, T. Waters, J. Glass, and others Documents The Census Bureau on prospects for US population growth in the twenty-first century Population and Development Review seeks to advance knowledge of the interrelationships between population and socioeconomic development and provides a forum for discussion of related issues of public policy. EDITOR Paul Demeny MANAGING EDITOR Ethel P. Churchill EDITORIAL COMMITTEE Paul Demeny, Chair Geoffrey McNicoll Ethel P. Churchill Michael P. Todaro Susan Greenhalgh EDITORIAL STAFF Robert Heidel, Production Editor Y. Christina Tse, Production/Design Margaret A. Knoll, Circulation Sura Rosenthal / Susan Rowe, Production ADVISORY BOARD Gustavo Cabrera Milos˘ Macura John C. Caldwell Carmen A. Miró Mercedes B. Concepción Asok Mitra Richard A. Easterlin Samuel H. Preston Akin L. Mabogunje Signed articles are the responsibility of the authors. Views expressed in the Review do not necessarily reflect the views of the Population Council. Direct manuscripts, comments on articles, and correspondence to: Population and Development Review Population Council One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza New York, New York 10017 USA Subscription information appears on the inside back cover. Support from the United Nations Population Fund is gratefully acknowledged. Volumes are available on microfilm from University Microfilms, Inc., 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48106. The website for Population and Development Review is www.popcouncil.org/publications/pdr/default.htm The full contents of Volumes 1–22 (1975–96) are available through participating libraries from JSTOR at www.jstor.org/journals/00987921.html Population and Development Review (ISSN 0098-7921) is published quarterly in March, June, September, and December by the Population Council, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017 USA. Periodicals postage paid at New York, NY, and additional mailing offices. POSTMASTER: Send address changes to Population and Development Review, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017. © 2000 by The Population Council, Inc. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. Library of Congress Catalog Card Number: 75-27311 ISSN 0098-7921 Information for Subscribers Population and Development Review is available on a paid subscription basis at the following rates: One year (4 issues) US$36.00 Two years (8 issues) US$60.00 To enter a subscription, send payment by check or money order drawn on a US bank, payable to the Population Council, or by Visa or MasterCard (provide card number and expiration date), together with mailing address to: Population and Development Review Population Council One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza New York, New York 10017 USA Credit card orders may also be placed by phone to (212) 339-0514, by fax to (212) 755-6052, or by e-mail to [email protected] Automatic renewal For credit card payment only, standing orders are available at US$30.00 per year, with automatic renewal each year until subscription is cancelled by subscriber. Subscriber’s credit card will automatically be charged annually in December for the next year’s volume. Complimentary subscriptions Complimentary subscriptions are available to qualified applicants residing in developing countries. Individuals and institutions wishing to apply for complimentary subscriptions should send requests on letterhead stationery to the above address stating the nature of professional involvement in development- and population-related issues. Back issues Casebound (hardcover) volumes are available at $45.00 each. Single back issues are available at $8.00 per issue. Please designate copies desired by volume and issue number. Orders may be placed by mail, phone, fax, or e-mail as indicated above. Complimentary copies are available to qualified individuals residing in developing countries. A twenty-year cumulative index to Volumes 1–20 (1975–94) is available at no charge to subscribers to the Review. Printed on recycled paper in the USA. POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW VOLUME 26 NUMBER 1 M A R C H 2 0 0 0 ARTICLES The US Decennial Census: Political Questions, Scientific Answers 1 KENNETH PREWITT Challenging Neo-Malthusian Deforestation Analyses in West Africa’s Dynamic Forest Landscapes 17 MELISSA LEACH JAMES FAIRHEAD Reproduction, Compositional Demography, and Economic Growth: Family Planning in England Long Before the Fertility Decline 45 SIMON SZRETER EILIDH GARRETT Absent and Problematic Men: Demographic Accounts of Male Reproductive Roles 81 MARGARET E. GREENE ANN E. BIDDLECOM NOTES AND COMMENTARY Rethinking the African AIDS Epidemic 117 JOHN C. CALDWELL DATA AND PERSPECTIVES Long-Term Population Projections and the US Social Security System 137 RONALD LEE ARCHIVES Emile Zola Against Malthusianism 145 BOOK REVIEWS Freedom and Welfare: A Review Essay on Amartya Sen, Development as Freedom PAUL STREETEN 153 Rocky Mountain Visions: A Review Essay on Paul Hawken, Amory Lovins, and L. Hunter Lovins, Natural Capitalism: The Next Industrial Revolution VACLAV SMIL 163 George J. Borjas, Heaven’s Door: Immigration Policy and the American Economy THOMAS J. ESPENSHADE 177 Douglas S. Massey, Joaquín Arango, Graeme Hugo, Ali Kouaouci, Adela Pellegrino, and J. Edward Taylor, Worlds in Motion: Understanding International Migration at the End of the Millennium DEMETRIOS G. PAPADEMETRIOU 180 Alison Games, Migration and the Origins of the English Atlantic World JAMES HORN 182 Joseph P. Ferrie, Yankeys Now: Immigrants in the Antebellum United States 1840–1860 TONY WATERS 183 Francine M. Deutsch, Halving It All: How Equally Shared Parenting Works JENNIFER GLASS 185 Short Reviews 187 DOCUMENTS The Census Bureau on Prospects for US Population Growth in the Twenty-First Century 197 ABSTRACTS 201 AUTHORS FOR THIS ISSUE 208 The US Decennial Census: Political Questions, Scientific Answers KENNETH PREWITT WHY HAVE PREPARATIONS for the US population and housing census in 2000 been the target of sharp partisan battles, battles that will also affect how the census counts will be used? The answer takes us, first, back to the political origins of the decennial census. The census in the US Constitution The US Constitution, written in 1787, includes a provision (in Article I, Sec- tion 2) for a decennial census: Representatives and direct Taxes shall be apportioned among the several States which may be included within this Union, according to their respective Num- bers. The actual Enumeration shall be made within three Years after the first Meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every subse- quent Term of ten Years, in such Manner as they shall by Law direct. America’s founding political elites crafted this paragraph with two na- tion-building purposes in mind. The bold new Constitution they were writ- ing would replace a weak confederacy with a centralized and stronger fed- eral government. But as with any engineering of a new government, the first and difficult task is to build consensus on how power will be allocated. Geography, not estates or social classes, was the building block. The con- federacy that was being pushed aside had given each of the original 13 states equal voting power. This favored smaller states; their leaders at the Consti- tutional Convention naturally insisted that the principle of state equality be upheld in the new government. The more populous states, such as New York and Virginia, balked at such power sharing, arguing the fairness of POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW 26(1):1–16 (MARCH 2000) 1 Click to print article Click to return to Table of Contents 2 T HE US DECENNIAL CENSUS allocating political power proportionate to population size. A bicameral leg- islature offered the compromise. In one branch, the Senate, each state would be equal in its voting power; in the other, the House of Representatives, voting would be allocated proportionate to population. Of course “propor- tionate to population” meant that there must be a count of the population; consequently, the Constitutional innovation of providing for a census. But why a census every ten years? Because of the second nation-build- ing task. Geographic expansion was much on the mind of the new nation. Its restless people were already crossing the Appalachian mountain range, spreading westward into the Ohio Valley and down the Mississippi River to the Gulf of Mexico. Some, among them drafters of the new Constitution, even imagined a nation reaching across the continent to the Pacific Ocean. A vast territory would thus be added to the new nation. But what was to be the status of these soon-to-be-acquired territories? Would they be annexed as colonies or join the nation on equal footing with the original 13 states? The prospect of an empire with colonies did not sit well with the principles of equality for which the war of independence had been waged. New and equal states it was to be, and the nation added states steadily throughout the nineteenth century. The decennial census measured population growth and its geographic dispersion and thereby served to regulate the pace at which the western and southern territories were added as new states to the Union.1 In serving these two Constitutional purposes—reallocation of power as the population grows and regulating the expansion of the union—the decennial census was intended to serve state-building, that is, “political” purposes; no sense can be made of current census controversies without appreciating this basic fact.
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