KENYA Food Security Update December 2007

• The 2007 short rains have performed poorly in the Figure 1. Current estimated food security conditions, third southern Maasai rangelands and delayed significantly in quarter 2007 (Oct to Dec) the southeastern short‐rains dependent lowlands. Food security in these already highly food insecure areas could deteriorate through the second quarter of 2008 if

the rains do not continue through January. TURKANA • Locusts pose a significant threat to crops and pastures in

the northeastern pastoral areas and the southeastern WAJ IR WEST POKOT Famine lowlands and require sustained control measures. SAMBURU MT ELGON Extremely Food Insecure BARINGO BUSIA Highly Food Insecure NANDI LAIKIPIA • Conflicts incidents have continued in the northwest and MERU Moderately Food Insecure NYANDO THARAKA EMBU Generally Food Secure in the eastern pastoral areas, stalling recovery and SUBA KIRINYAGA MIGORI impeding production activities in the conflict epicenters. TANA RIVER IJARA • Pastoral food security has improved in the northeast and MAKUENI eastern districts and remained stable in the northwest. TAITA TAVETA • National crop prospects remain favorable and the country is expected to have a surplus through the end of the June 2008 production year. Source: KFSSG

Seasonal calendar and critical events

FEWS NET WFP/VAM ALRMP Ministry of Agriculture The views expressed in this Tel: 3861475/6/9 Tel: 7624073 Tel: 227496 Tel: 2713901 publication do not necessarily reflect Nancy Mutunga Allan Kute James Oduor Abner Ingosi the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] United States Government. KENYA Food Security Update December 2007

Mixed short rains performance in key areas Figure 2. Rainfall anomalies, Sep. 1–Dec. 10, 2007

The 2007 short rains have been uneven across the country’s key short‐rains production zones. Heavy rains started in September instead of the usual early November in the northwestern pastoral districts and then ceased suddenly in early October and have been light and erratic since. While cumulative rainfall totals are above average in the northwest (figure 2), not much rain was reported during most of October and November. Rains also began fairly early in the drought‐affected eastern pastoral areas and have continued through December. However, large areas in the pastoral Marsabit, Moyale, Isiolo and parts of Samburu have experienced poor seasonal rains. The southern Maasai rangelands, including Narok and Kajiado, have also received very scanty rains that began late. In these areas, signs of stress are already visible and vegetation cover is poor. The southeastern short rains‐dependent cropping areas received rains after the first week of November, nearly three weeks late. While rains have continued since the late onset, the crop is at a fairly early stage of development. Source: USGS/FEWS NET The Arid Lands Resource Management Project (ALRMP) has reported that despite the poor rains in northwestern districts, vegetation is good and water resources are fairly adequate due to the extension of the long rains through August. As a result, pasture, browse and grazing reserves are expected to last through the next three to four months, close to the onset of the 2008 long rains season. Good rains in the northeast have eased the pressure on pastoral food security after poor long rains earlier this year. Pastoralists and livestock have migrated back to wet‐season grazing areas in most instances including eastern and southern Garissa, Mandera, Ijara, and parts of Tana River. In contrast, severe water stress is beginning to emerge in the southern Maasai rangelands, particularly in Narok and Kajiado districts. Watering distances have risen to 25 kilometers in Kajiado’s pastoral areas and 12 kilometers in Narok, in the middle of what should otherwise be the peak of the wet season. A team of national food security analysts is currently carrying out a food security assessment in the Maasai rangelands so as to clarify the impacts of the poor rains on pastoral food security. Initial reports from the assessments suggest that rains started in the second week of dekad and could begin to moderate the impacts of the extended dry season, as long as they are sustained. The six‐day forecast through December 14 suggests that rains will be experienced in most of the Maasai rangelands.

Livestock health and body conditions

Livestock body conditions have improved in most northern, eastern and northwest pastoral areas, with the exception of parts of Baringo and northern Isiolo. In addition, milk availability has also increased in most of Mandera, Garissa, Samburu, Isiolo, Ijara and Moyale districts after an increase in birthings among livestock, particularly the small stock. Good livestock body conditions are mitigated by contagious caprine pleuro pneumonia and the East Coast Fever in Samburu and suspected peste des petits ruminants in localized areas of Turkana District. Livestock body conditions have significantly declined in the southern Maasai rangelands as a result of the extended trekking distances and substantial deterioration in key grazing fundamentals (pasture, browse and water). The worst‐affected areas are Mashuru, Magadi and divisions in Kajiado District where pastoralists are migrating into Tanzania, neighboring cropping districts and into game reserves, thus increasing the potential for conflict and susceptibility to disease. The food security for these southern pastoralists could deteriorate to the highly food insecure category within the first quarter of 2008 through the beginning of the long rains in early April, should current rains fail to establish and continue through January. In addition, the outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease in Lenkism in Kajiado and Narok districts has worsened pastoralists’ prospects, after quarantine on livestock movement was imposed, in a bid to forestall the spread of the disease. Affected pastoralists are unable to trade livestock in exchange for cereals and are also unable to meet other financial obligations. Kenya Food Security Network 2 KENYA Food Security Update December 2007

Livestock migration Locusts threaten food security in the east and northeast

Unusual livestock migration in November in localized The presence of locusts has been confirmed in pastoral areas in the northern, eastern and northwestern pastoral northeastern Kenya and they are swarming in some areas, leading areas occurred as a result of inadequate pasture, browse the GoK’s Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) to place Mandera, Moyale and water due to poor temporal and spatial rainfall and northern Wajir districts under alert. In the worst‐affected parts of Mandera District, an estimated 400 locusts per square kilometer distribution in western and northern Garissa, the are expected to lay eggs in mid‐December. Some damage to hinterland of Tana River, Baringo, western Samburu irrigated crops and pastures has occurred along the River Daua, the northern and eastern Isiolo and southern Narok. spread of which was forestalled by the MoA by successfully spraying However, livestock migrated out of northern Samburu and the hatched hoppers. The mobility of the hoppers could pose a along the Turkana, West Pokot and Samburu border due significant challenge in their control, underlining the need for to continuing livestock raiding and insecurity. In the worst elaborate ground and aerial co‐ordination. The locusts are raid, the Dodoth of Uganda raided 11 camels from migrating southward toward the neighboring Wajir District, and Turkana, while the Pokots raided Turkana in the south and could move to the southeast and lay more eggs if current control took away 90 head of cattle. Other pastoral migrations measures are not sustained. Such a scenario would put the short‐ rains crop in southeastern marginal agricultural areas at risk, motivated by conflict include displacements in Tana River, exacerbating the impacts of delayed rains. Pastoralists would also as conflict over land use escalated. Displacements also not have sufficient access to pasture and browse to last through the occurred in northern Samburu migration from Isiolo after January to March dry season, decreasing their food security, in the 300 head of cattle were stolen. Many of the conflict‐ coming months. prone areas are endowed with the most favorable resources that remain untapped. The raids continue to The GoK has pre‐positioned aircraft, pesticides, aviation gas, vehicle‐ disrupt the recovery of pastoralists that had begun to take mounted and hand‐held sprayers and protective gear in Mandera hold in most of the conflict areas, most of them situated District. Training of key personnel as well as publicity campaigns has in the northwest. An effective strategy by the GoK is also been strengthened. However, the availability of sprays and vehicles is inadequate and could hamper the effectiveness of the needed to decisively mitigate and prevent conflict; exercise. Since the spread of the locusts could extend to Moyale, otherwise pastoralists situated close to and in the conflict Wajir and southward, additional vehicles, sprayers, aircraft and areas will have little incentive to invest in rebuilding their personnel will be required. The ALRMP has provided Ksh. 1.2 herds in a conflict‐prone environment. million to support the control effort. As well, unless the spread of locusts is also checked from the source in Ethiopia and Somalia, the efforts in Kenya could become ineffective. Livestock prices

The decrease in livestock prices during October in a Figure 3. Comparative pastoral terms of trade in Samburu number of markets has been temporary, with an 1.8 upturn in livestock prices during November. 2001-'05 Average 1.6 Livestock prices rose in Mandera, Samburu, Garissa, 2007 Turkana, Marsabit, Ijara and Moyale districts by 1.4 between 5 and 12 percent. The increase in livestock 1.2 prices is attributed primarily to improved environmental conditions, which have encouraged 1 pastoralists to hold on to their livestock to restock at 0.8 a time when prospects for herd rebuilding are most 0.6 favorable. The welfare of pastoralists is improving because the rise in livestock prices is more than CerealMeat to Price Ratio 0.4 compensating for the concurrent rise in cereal prices. 0.2 For example, pastoralists’ terms of trade in Samburu 0 District are rising slowly but remain lower than the Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2001/05 average, before the debilitating drought of 2006 (figure 3). Areas that continue to receive poor Source of Data: ALRMP rains, such as the southern Maasai rangelands and northwestern districts, have reported a decline in livestock prices of up to 10 percent. Poor market integration in several pastoral areas is a key feature that pastoralists often contend with. For example in the more accessible Marigat market, in Kenya Food Security Network 3 KENYA Food Security Update December 2007

Baringo District, cattle are retailing at Ksh. 9,300 per head as compared to Ksh. 5,900 in Bartabwa market in the same district. The wide price disparities in a predominantly pastoral economy are indicative of impacts of an inadequate trade infrastructure on the bargaining capacities and ultimately food security of pastoralists.

Child Malnutrition

Rates of child malnutrition declined by margins of between 5 and 14 percent in several pastoral districts including Samburu, Turkana, Marsabit, Moyale, Ijara and remained largely stable in Mandera, Kajiado, Garissa and Narok districts. Rates of malnutrition increased in Baringo and the newly created Loitokitok District. Loiyagalani in Marsabit, Lokori in Turkana and Nyiro and in Samburu continue to report worrisome Middle Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) rates of 20‐30 percent, although overall district averages are low and declining and supplementary feeding programs are on‐going. Chronic rates of child malnutrition in flagged areas need to be investigated comprehensively, including an analysis of possible impacts of conflict on nutrition as most of the flagged areas are also conflict epicenters.

Re‐targeting of beneficiaries undertaken as transition to Food for Assets is planned

The emergency operation (EMOP) that began in March 2006, following the severe drought that threatened lives and livelihoods, targeting an estimated three million beneficiaries, has now been scaled down to 652,000 beneficiaries in thirteen predominately pastoral and marginal agricultural districts. Re‐targeting of beneficiaries was successful and food will be distributed either through general food distribution or food for assets programs. Food distributions in November under the current EMOP (titled 10374) proceeded successfully in most districts, and the estimated outreach was more than 90 percent of the targeted 652,000 beneficiaries, requiring 8,980 MT. However, due to heavy rains in the eastern half of the country, logistical constraints were faced along the strategically important Hola‐Garsen road. Nevertheless, a full basket was provided, with the cereal component consisting of wheat and corn meal.

WFP continued consulting intensively with the main stakeholders regarding the transition from general food distribution to food for assets in arid districts. The objective is to adopt a more recovery‐oriented approach in the coming months, in the run‐up to the end of the EMOP, and the beginning of the new protracted relief and recovery operation in July 2008.

Maize supply expected to exceed demand through the 2007/08 marketing year

The Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) has indicated that the country expects 2.52 million MT from the long‐rains crop and 540,000 MT from the short rains. Projected maize output for 2007 is just over 15 percent higher than the 10‐year average. The country’s supply of maize is currently 2.3 million MT, and another 450,000 MT of long rains maize is yet to be harvested from the North Rift’s ‘grain basket’ in January. The remaining crop ranges between the cob formation stage and the physiological mature stage.

The short‐rains crop, estimated to be 540,000 MT, should be harvested in March, further boosting domestic supply. An estimated 478,000 hectares have been planted with short rains maize during the 2007 short rains season. The crop ranges from the post germination stage in southeastern Kenya and the coastal lowlands to the physiological maturity stage in western Kenya. The MoA’s short rains crop estimate of 540,000 MT is close to 20 percent higher than the 5‐year average of 450,000 MT and is motivated by good rains in the west and an increase in area planted. However, short‐rains crop prospects are yet unclear, since the southern lowlands that contribute close to 45 percent of the total national short rains output experienced a late onset and the crop is at a very early development stage. Maize output in the drought‐affected southeastern lowlands will determine the extent to which expected national output will be attained because of its substantial contribution to national short rains output. A significant downward revision of the national short rains output projections will become necessary, should rains fail to extend into January in the southeast. Even in this case, though, total national supply will still be greater than demand through June 2008.

Kenya Food Security Network 4 KENYA Food Security Update December 2007

Maize prices have remained stable in key markets during the past three months. The NCPB has set its purchasing price at Ksh. 1,300 per 90‐kg bag, thus moderating the expected downward pressure on maize prices at harvest time. However, farm gate prices have declined to as low as Ksh. 800 in ‘grain basket’ districts’ and in some areas in western Kenya where rains rendered roads impassable. The NCPB is holding more than 25 percent more maize than is required for the Strategic Grain Reserve of 360,000 MT, and it is unclear whether the board intends to purchase any more maize from the forthcoming harvests. It is expected that after the long rains harvest is completed in January and the short rains harvest in March, the downward pressure on maize prices will be substantial. While the downward pressure is favorable for deficit producers and especially pastoralists, it is detrimental to the food security of drought‐prone farmers in southeastern Kenya who utilize the short rains output as their key cash crop.

Conclusion

Food security prospects for pastoralists in most of the east and northeast have improved as result of good rains that started early. However, the locust threat is real and could easily reverse current gains, underlining the need for an effective and unrelenting control strategy. Food security prospects for northwestern pastoralists are expected to remain stable through the beginning of the 2008 long rains season in early April, because of an extended 2007 long‐rains season and in spite of mediocre short rains. The Maasai lowlands are the key area of concern because of exceptionally poor short rains. If rains fail to re‐start, pastoralists in the worst‐affected areas may experience substantial food stress.

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