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Kenya Food Security Update, December 2007

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Kenya Food Security Update, December 2007 KENYA Food Security Update December 2007 • The 2007 short rains have performed poorly in the Figure 1. Current estimated food security conditions, third southern Maasai rangelands and delayed significantly in quarter 2007 (Oct to Dec) the southeastern short‐rains dependent lowlands. Food security in these already highly food insecure areas could deteriorate through the second quarter of 2008 if the rains do not continue through January. TURKANA MANDERA MOYALE • Locusts pose a significant threat to crops and pastures in MARSABIT the northeastern pastoral areas and the southeastern WAJ IR WEST POKOT Famine lowlands and require sustained control measures. SAMBURU ISIOLO MT ELGON Extremely Food Insecure BARINGO BUSIA Highly Food Insecure NANDI LAIKIPIA • Conflicts incidents have continued in the northwest and SIAYA MERU Moderately Food Insecure NYANDO THARAKA GARISSA NAKURU NYERI EMBU Generally Food Secure in the eastern pastoral areas, stalling recovery and SUBA KIRINYAGA MWINGI MIGORI BOMET impeding production activities in the conflict epicenters. NAROK NAIROBI TANA RIVER MACHAKOS IJARA KITUI KAJIADO LAMU • Pastoral food security has improved in the northeast and MAKUENI eastern districts and remained stable in the northwest. MALINDI TAITA TAVETA KILIFI MOMBASA • National crop prospects remain favorable and the KWALE country is expected to have a surplus through the end of the June 2008 production year. Source: KFSSG Seasonal calendar and critical events FEWS NET Kenya WFP/VAM ALRMP Ministry of Agriculture The views expressed in this Tel: 3861475/6/9 Tel: 7624073 Tel: 227496 Tel: 2713901 publication do not necessarily reflect Nancy Mutunga Allan Kute James Oduor Abner Ingosi the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] United States Government. KENYA Food Security Update December 2007 Mixed short rains performance in key areas Figure 2. Rainfall anomalies, Sep. 1–Dec. 10, 2007 The 2007 short rains have been uneven across the country’s key short‐rains production zones. Heavy rains started in September instead of the usual early November in the northwestern pastoral districts and then ceased suddenly in early October and have been light and erratic since. While cumulative rainfall totals are above average in the northwest (figure 2), not much rain was reported during most of October and November. Rains also began fairly early in the drought‐affected eastern pastoral areas and have continued through December. However, large areas in the pastoral Marsabit, Moyale, Isiolo and parts of Samburu have experienced poor seasonal rains. The southern Maasai rangelands, including Narok and Kajiado, have also received very scanty rains that began late. In these areas, signs of stress are already visible and vegetation cover is poor. The southeastern short rains‐dependent cropping areas received rains after the first week of November, nearly three weeks late. While rains have continued since the late onset, the crop is at a fairly early stage of development. Source: USGS/FEWS NET The Arid Lands Resource Management Project (ALRMP) has reported that despite the poor rains in northwestern districts, vegetation is good and water resources are fairly adequate due to the extension of the long rains through August. As a result, pasture, browse and grazing reserves are expected to last through the next three to four months, close to the onset of the 2008 long rains season. Good rains in the northeast have eased the pressure on pastoral food security after poor long rains earlier this year. Pastoralists and livestock have migrated back to wet‐season grazing areas in most instances including eastern and southern Garissa, Mandera, Ijara, Wajir and parts of Tana River. In contrast, severe water stress is beginning to emerge in the southern Maasai rangelands, particularly in Narok and Kajiado districts. Watering distances have risen to 25 kilometers in Kajiado’s pastoral areas and 12 kilometers in Narok, in the middle of what should otherwise be the peak of the wet season. A team of national food security analysts is currently carrying out a food security assessment in the Maasai rangelands so as to clarify the impacts of the poor rains on pastoral food security. Initial reports from the assessments suggest that rains started in the second week of dekad and could begin to moderate the impacts of the extended dry season, as long as they are sustained. The six‐day forecast through December 14 suggests that rains will be experienced in most of the Maasai rangelands. Livestock health and body conditions Livestock body conditions have improved in most northern, eastern and northwest pastoral areas, with the exception of parts of Baringo and northern Isiolo. In addition, milk availability has also increased in most of Mandera, Garissa, Samburu, Isiolo, Ijara and Moyale districts after an increase in birthings among livestock, particularly the small stock. Good livestock body conditions are mitigated by contagious caprine pleuro pneumonia and the East Coast Fever in Samburu and suspected peste des petits ruminants in localized areas of Turkana District. Livestock body conditions have significantly declined in the southern Maasai rangelands as a result of the extended trekking distances and substantial deterioration in key grazing fundamentals (pasture, browse and water). The worst‐affected areas are Mashuru, Magadi and Loitokitok divisions in Kajiado District where pastoralists are migrating into Tanzania, neighboring cropping districts and into game reserves, thus increasing the potential for conflict and susceptibility to disease. The food security for these southern pastoralists could deteriorate to the highly food insecure category within the first quarter of 2008 through the beginning of the long rains in early April, should current rains fail to establish and continue through January. In addition, the outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease in Lenkism in Kajiado and Narok districts has worsened pastoralists’ prospects, after quarantine on livestock movement was imposed, in a bid to forestall the spread of the disease. Affected pastoralists are unable to trade livestock in exchange for cereals and are also unable to meet other financial obligations. Kenya Food Security Network 2 KENYA Food Security Update December 2007 Livestock migration Locusts threaten food security in the east and northeast Unusual livestock migration in November in localized The presence of locusts has been confirmed in pastoral areas in the northern, eastern and northwestern pastoral northeastern Kenya and they are swarming in some areas, leading areas occurred as a result of inadequate pasture, browse the GoK’s Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) to place Mandera, Moyale and water due to poor temporal and spatial rainfall and northern Wajir districts under alert. In the worst‐affected parts of Mandera District, an estimated 400 locusts per square kilometer distribution in western and northern Garissa, the are expected to lay eggs in mid‐December. Some damage to hinterland of Tana River, Baringo, western Samburu irrigated crops and pastures has occurred along the River Daua, the northern and eastern Isiolo and southern Narok. spread of which was forestalled by the MoA by successfully spraying However, livestock migrated out of northern Samburu and the hatched hoppers. The mobility of the hoppers could pose a along the Turkana, West Pokot and Samburu border due significant challenge in their control, underlining the need for to continuing livestock raiding and insecurity. In the worst elaborate ground and aerial co‐ordination. The locusts are raid, the Dodoth of Uganda raided 11 camels from migrating southward toward the neighboring Wajir District, and Turkana, while the Pokots raided Turkana in the south and could move to the southeast and lay more eggs if current control took away 90 head of cattle. Other pastoral migrations measures are not sustained. Such a scenario would put the short‐ rains crop in southeastern marginal agricultural areas at risk, motivated by conflict include displacements in Tana River, exacerbating the impacts of delayed rains. Pastoralists would also as conflict over land use escalated. Displacements also not have sufficient access to pasture and browse to last through the occurred in northern Samburu migration from Isiolo after January to March dry season, decreasing their food security, in the 300 head of cattle were stolen. Many of the conflict‐ coming months. prone areas are endowed with the most favorable resources that remain untapped. The raids continue to The GoK has pre‐positioned aircraft, pesticides, aviation gas, vehicle‐ disrupt the recovery of pastoralists that had begun to take mounted and hand‐held sprayers and protective gear in Mandera hold in most of the conflict areas, most of them situated District. Training of key personnel as well as publicity campaigns has in the northwest. An effective strategy by the GoK is also been strengthened. However, the availability of sprays and vehicles is inadequate and could hamper the effectiveness of the needed to decisively mitigate and prevent conflict; exercise. Since the spread of the locusts could extend to Moyale, otherwise pastoralists situated close to and in the conflict Wajir and southward, additional vehicles, sprayers, aircraft and areas will have little incentive to invest in rebuilding their personnel will be required. The ALRMP has provided Ksh. 1.2 herds in a conflict‐prone environment.
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