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The Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime at a Crossroads Emily B The Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime at a Crossroads Emily B. Landau and Azriel Bermant, Editors Memorandum 137 The Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime at a Crossroads Emily B. Landau and Azriel Bermant, Editors Institute for National Security Studies THE INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURcITY STUDIES INCORPORATING THE JAFFEE b d TheCENTER FOR STRA InstituteTEGIC STUDIES for National Security Studies (INSS), incorporating the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, was founded in 2006. The purpose of the Institute for National Security Studies is first, to conduct basic research that meets the highest academic standards on matters related to Israel’s national security as well as Middle East regional and international security affairs. Second, the Institute aims to contribute to the public debate and governmental deliberation of issues that are – or should be – at the top of Israel’s national security agenda. INSS seeks to address Israeli decision makers and policymakers, the defense establishment, public opinion makers, the academic community in Israel and abroad, and the general public. INSS publishes research that it deems worthy of public attention, while it maintains a strict policy of non-partisanship. The opinions expressed in this publication are the authors’ alone, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Institute, its trustees, boards, research staff, or the organization and individuals that support its research. The Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime at a Crossroads Emily B. Landau and Azriel Bermant, Editors Memorandum No. 137 May 2014 THE INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURcITY STUDIES INCORPORATING THE JAFFEE b d CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES משטר תפוצת נשק גרעיני על פרשת דרכים אמילי לנדאו ועזריאל ברמנט, עורכים This volume, published within the framework of the Arms Control and Regional Security Program at INSS, was published with the assistance of a generous grant by the Hewlett Foundation. Graphic design: Michal Semo-Kovetz, Yael Bieber Printing: Elinir Cover photo: Image Bank/Getty Images Institute for National Security Studies (a public benefit company) 40 Haim Levanon Street POB 39950 Ramat Aviv Tel Aviv 6997556 Tel. +972-3-640-0400 Fax. +972-3-744-7590 E-mail: [email protected] http://www.inss.org.il © All rights reserved. May 2014 ISBN: 978-965-7425-63-3 Table of Contents Preface 7 PART I THE NUCLEAR NON-PROLIFERATION TREATY: PAST DYNAMICS AND CURRENT ASSESSMENTS Forging Ahead: Challenges and Opportunities for the NPT Rose Gottemoeller 11 The NPT Review Conferences Harald Müller 17 The NPT toward 2015: NAM and Non-Nuclear Weapon States Perspectives Rebecca Johnson 27 Don’t Beat a Dead Horse: The Past, Present, and Future Failures of the NPT Carlo Masala 45 A “Bank Run” on the NPT: Preventing a Crisis of Confidence Cameron S. Brown 55 PART II THE NUCLEAR NON-PROLIFERATION TREATY: WILL THE NPT SURVIVE? The Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime: A Rethink? Ephraim Asculai 75 Too Early to Eulogize the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime Tamar Malz-Ginsburg 85 Whither the International Nuclear Order? Emmanuelle Blanc 97 PART III CONFRONTING PROLIFERATION AT THE GLOBAL LEVEL Recalibrating President Obama’s Global Zero Vision Michael Nacht 117 Changes in the International System and their Impact on Proliferation Yair Evron 135 Russia’s Nonproliferation Policy Anton Khlopkov 145 Pakistan’s Security Perceptions and their Adverse Impact on the Global Nuclear Order Nir Reichental 155 PART IV THE VERIFICATION CHALLENGE The IAEA Verifications System in Perspective Olli Heinonen 165 Verifying the Prohibition on Chemical Weapons: The Relevance of OPCW Processes to the IAEA Jean Pascal Zanders 177 PART V PERSPECTIVES ON THE MIDDLE EAST Nonproliferation and Regional Security: An Israeli Policy Perspective Jeremy Issacharoff 195 Security Asymmetries in the Middle East Shimon Stein 201 The Need for a Regional Security Regime in the Middle East Shlomo Brom 209 A WMD-Free Zone in the Middle East: The Main Challenge is not the NPT Benjamin Hautecouverture 213 Preface This collection of articles is an outgrowth of the 2013 annual arms control conference held under the auspices of the Arms Control and Regional Security Program at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv. The conference, “The Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime at a Crossroads,” took place on February 11-12, 2013, and was held in conjunction with the Paris-based Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique. The articles compiled in this volume grapple with questions and dilemmas that arise from a growing sense in recent years that the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) has reached a critical juncture, and that its continued role as the centerpiece of the nuclear nonproliferation regime is at risk. This is the result of a process that has unfolded gradually since the end of the Cold War, which also spelled the end of the bipolar global structure that, in the minds of many, helped keep nuclear proliferation in check. The tensions that exist between state interests, norms, and notions of collective security regarding nuclear nonproliferation efforts lie at the heart of the articles that comprise the opening two sections of this volume. The first of these sections focuses on interests that have driven the NPT from its inception to its current possibly precarious status; the second section considers future prospects for the treaty. In the third section, authors direct their attention to proliferation and nonproliferation trends at the global level, specifically, the impact of changes in the international system, President Obama’s embrace of the Global Zero agenda, Russia’s perspective on nonproliferation, and the impact of Pakistan on the global nuclear order. An effective verification mechanism is critical for ensuring that states uphold their nonproliferation commitments to the NPT, and the two chapters of the following section focus specifically on this sometimes elusive goal. The volume’s closing section is devoted to the Middle East, and focuses in particular on the terms and conditions for establishing a regional security regime, and the problems encountered vis-à-vis the initiative adopted at the 8 I Preface 2010 NPT Review Conference to hold a conference on a weapons of mass destruction-free zone in the Middle East. While the idea of the volume began with the 2013 international conference, the contributors took the conference proceedings as their starting point and then composed updated analytical articles on their respective topics. In addition, the volume includes four articles not based on conference lectures that were written specifically for this collection. It also includes the full text of the two keynote addresses that were delivered at the conference, “Forging Ahead: Challenges and Opportunities for the NPT,” by Rose Gottemoeller of the US State Department, and “Nonproliferation and Regional Security: An Israeli Policy Perspective,” given by Ambassador Jeremy Issacharoff of the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Our sincere thanks go to the authors of this collection for their dedication to the project, and their willingness to devote time not only to participation in the conference but to presentation of their ideas in written form as well. We also want to express our gratitude to Judith Rosen, editor at INSS, for her valuable contribution. Our hope is that this collection will be a meaningful contribution to the ongoing debate over the future of the still very important Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Emily B. Landau and Azriel Bermant Tel Aviv, May 2014 PART I The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty: Past Dynamics and Current Assessments Forging Ahead: Challenges and Opportunities for the NPT Rose Gottemoeller / 11 The NPT Review Conferences Harald Müller / 17 The NPT toward 2015: NAM and Non-Nuclear Weapon States Perspectives Rebecca Johnson / 27 Don’t Beat a Dead Horse: The Past, Present, and Future Failures of the NPT Carlo Masala / 45 A “Bank Run” on the NPT: Preventing a Crisis of Confidence Cameron S. Brown / 55 Forging Ahead: Challenges and Opportunities for the NPT Rose Gottemoeller* Acting Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security US Department of State Remarks at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) Tel Aviv, February 12, 2013 It is an honor to be here. As you all know, John Kerry was sworn in as the new U.S. Secretary of State just about a week and a half ago. He begins his tenure at State fully seized of the challenges that we face around the globe, including the future of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Under the direction of our new Secretary, the Department of State will continue its efforts to support this vital regime. The title for this conference is apt. We are at a crossroads, but not a dead- end. Over the course of the last 40 years, the NPT has taken some hits, not least this highly provocative act announced by North Korea today. But it is precisely because of those hits that we have acquired the experience needed to deal more effectively with the challenge of nuclear proliferation. In order to look to the future, it is important to remember the past. It was just over 50 years ago that tension brought on by the Cuban Missile Crisis threatened to turn the Cold War hot. The world watched in fear for those 13 days in October 1962 when Soviet missile placements in Cuba very nearly became the spark that would start a fire we could not possibly control. As the United States and the Soviet Union teetered on the edge of nuclear war, leaders in Washington and Moscow sought a diplomatic solution. One of Rose Gottermoeller was confirmed as Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security by the United States Senate on March 6, 2014. 12 I Rose Gottemoeller the challenges confronting both sides was making sure that their perceptions, objectives, and proposals were getting across to each other clearly. This was not an easy thing to do without email, dedicated phone lines, or fifty years of cooperation across many different issues.
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