Retail Opportunities Study Longmont, Colorado
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Economic & Planning Systems Real Estate Economics Regional Economics Public Finance Land Use Policy FINAL REPORT RETAIL OPPORTUNITIES STUDY LONGMONT,COLORADO Prepared for: City of Longmont Longmont Area Economic Council Longmont Chamber of Commerce Longmont Area Visitors Association Prepared by: Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. April 2006 EPS #15848 D E N V E R B E R K E L E Y S A C R A M E N T O 730 17th Street, Suite 630 phone: 303-623-3557 phone: 510-841-9190 phone: 916-649-8010 Denver, CO 80202-3511 fax: 303-623-9049 fax: 510-841-9208 fax: 916-649-2070 www.epsys.com TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE I. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY OF FINDINGS................................................................ 1 Background ......................................................................................................................1 Scope of Work .................................................................................................................. 2 Summary of Findings...................................................................................................... 3 Recommended Strategies and Actions......................................................................... 6 II. ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC FRAMEWORK ............................................................ 10 Retail Definitions ........................................................................................................... 10 Longmont Trade Areas................................................................................................. 11 Demographic Characteristics....................................................................................... 13 Commercial Retail Development ................................................................................ 20 III. HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURE SURVEY ............................................................................. 26 Expenditure Patterns .................................................................................................... 26 Shopping in Longmont................................................................................................. 32 Survey Demographics................................................................................................... 36 IV. RETAIL SALES FLOWS...................................................................................................... 39 Store Categories ............................................................................................................. 39 Existing Retail Sales....................................................................................................... 41 Retail Expenditures ....................................................................................................... 51 Retail Sales Inflows and Outflows .............................................................................. 53 V. COMPARABLE CITY ANALYSIS ....................................................................................... 58 Retail Sales...................................................................................................................... 58 Sales Flow Comparison ................................................................................................ 62 VI. RETAIL DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL............................................................................... 65 Sales Potential ................................................................................................................ 65 Trade Area Changes...................................................................................................... 68 Retail Opportunities...................................................................................................... 69 TABLE OF CONTENTS (continued) PAGE VII. DOWNTOWN RETAIL MARKET ....................................................................................... 77 Downtown Retail Inventory ........................................................................................ 79 Downtown Retail Sales................................................................................................. 84 Building and Property Conditions.............................................................................. 91 Downtown Retail Potentials ........................................................................................ 96 VIII. STRATEGIES AND ACTIONS........................................................................................... 100 Summary of Potentials................................................................................................ 100 Redevelopment Opportunities .................................................................................. 101 Redevelopment Incentives ......................................................................................... 102 Implementation Actions ............................................................................................. 105 LIST OF TABLES PAGE Table 1 City of Longmont Population Trends, 1990-2005 ................................. 13 Table 2 City of Longmont Household Trends, 1990-2005 ................................. 14 Table 3 Longmont Trade Area Household Trends, 1990-2005 ......................... 15 Table 4 Boulder County Household Trends, 2000–2004.................................... 16 Table 5 City of Longmont Income Trends, 1990-2005........................................ 17 Table 6 City of Longmont Income Distribution, 1990-2005............................... 17 Table 7 Longmont Region Income Distribution, 1990–2005.............................. 18 Table 8 City of Longmont Income Distribution by Age, 2005 .......................... 19 Table 9 Commercial and Industrial Development Activity, 1990-2004........... 20 Table 10 Harvest Junction Development Program............................................... 23 Table 11 Promenade Shops at Centerra Tenants .................................................. 25 Table 12 Shoppers Goods Purchases, City of Longmont..................................... 27 Table 13 Shoppers Goods Purchases Comparison, City of Longmont.............. 28 Table 14 Shoppers Goods Purchases, Secondary Trade Area............................. 28 Table 15 Shoppers Goods Purchase Comparison, Secondary Trade Area ....... 29 Table 16 Downtown Retail Purchases, City of Longmont .................................. 30 Table 17 Downtown Retail Purchases, Secondary Trade Area .......................... 31 Table 18 Longmont Shopping Comparison, City of Longmont......................... 32 Table 19 Suggested Stores........................................................................................ 33 Table 20 Average Shopping Trips per Month, City of Longmont ..................... 33 Table 21 Trip Purpose, City of Longmont ............................................................. 34 Table 22 Average Shopping Trips per Month, Secondary Trade Area ............. 34 Table 23 Trip Purpose, Secondary Trade Area ..................................................... 35 Table 24 Place of Residence ..................................................................................... 36 Table 25 Length of Residence .................................................................................. 36 Table 26 Persons per Household............................................................................. 37 Table 27 Location of Primary Employment by Place of Residence.................... 37 Table 28 Household Income Survey....................................................................... 38 Table 29 Large Format and Mass Merchandisers................................................. 40 Table 30 Retail Sales by Industry, 2004 .................................................................. 43 LIST OF TABLES (continued) PAGE Table 31 City of Longmont Retail Sales by Store Type, 2004.............................. 44 Table 32 Retail Sales Distribution, 2004 ................................................................. 46 Table 33 Twin Peaks Mall Performance, 2004....................................................... 47 Table 34 City of Longmont Regional Retail Inventory, 2005 .............................. 49 Table 35 Regional Retail Sales Performance, 2004................................................ 50 Table 36 Longmont Area Total Personal Income, 2000-2010 .............................. 51 Table 37 City of Longmont Retail Expenditure Potential, 2005.......................... 52 Table 38 City of Longmont Expenditures by Location, 2004 .............................. 54 Table 39 City of Longmont Retail Sales by Location, 2004.................................. 55 Table 40 Retail Sales Comparison, 2002................................................................. 59 Table 41 Per Capita Retail Sales .............................................................................. 61 Table 42 Retail Sales Potential, 2010 ....................................................................... 66 Table 43 Estimated Net New Supportable Retail Square Footage, 2005-2010.. 67 Table 44 Mass Merchandiser Retail Opportunities .............................................. 72 Table 45 Lifestyle/Mall Retail Opportunities ....................................................... 75 Table 46 LDDA Inventory........................................................................................ 79 Table 47 Downtown Retail Core Store Inventory................................................. 80 Table 48 Downtown Retail Sales, 2003-2005.........................................................