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Home , Davao de Oro, Dinagat Islands, Isabela (province)

140th National Climate Forum 22 September 2021

CLIMATE REVIEW August – September 19, 2021

Prepared by: Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS) CLIMATOLOGY & AGROMETEOROLOGY DIVISION (CAD) PAGASA-DOST, City

Presented by: REMEDIOS L. CIERVO Senior Weather Specialist C O N T E N T S

Recent ENSO Conditions Weather Systems Climate Assessment Summary El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) • A large-scale variability resulting from the interactions between the ocean and atmosphere in the tropical Pacific.

YOU Phases of ENSO: ARE HERE El Niño – unusual warming in the CEEP La Niña – unusual cooling in the CEEP Neutral – neither El Niño nor La Niña SST Departures (oC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last Four Weeks

In the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were near-to-below average across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and were above-average in the western Pacific Ocean. Oceanic Indicator ENSO INDICATORS Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST)

1.5 MONTHLY SSTA (AUGUST 2019 - AUGUST 2021)

1 El Niño

0.5

C ° 0 Neutral

-0.5 ANOMALY ANOMALY -1 La Niña -1.5

Data Source: Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Atmospheric indicator (SOI) and oceanic Atmospheric Indicator indicator (SSTA) remain within the neutral Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) levels. (as of August 2021) MONTHLY SOI (AUGUST 2019 - AUGUST 2021) 20 15 La Niña 10

DIFF. 5 0 Neutral -5 PRESSURE PRESSURE -10 El Niño Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) standardized anomaly of the -15 mean sea level pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Data Source: Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) JUN- JUL- AUG 2021)

JUNE & JULY 2021 SSTA- The sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) across the tropical Pacific were near average (0ºC to -0.5ºC) while slightly warmer SSTs were observed in the western Pacific (0°C to > 0.5°C).

August 2021 SSTA- The sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) across the tropical Pacific were still near average (-0.4ºC to -0.5ºC) for the month, while slightly warmer SSTs were observed in the western Pacific (0.3°C to > 0.8°C).

http://seacm.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/analysis/sst/2021 Historical El Niño and La Niña Episodes Based on the ONI computed using ERSST.v5 Recent Pacific warm (red) and cold (blue) periods based on a threshold of +/- 0.5 ºC for the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) [3 month running mean of ERSST.v5 SST anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region (5N-5S, 120- 170W)]. For historical purposes, periods of below and above normal SSTs are colored in blue and red when the threshold is met for a minimum of 5 consecutive over-lapping seasons. The ONI is one measure of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and other indices can confirm whether features consistent with a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon accompanied these periods

Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ

2009 -0.8 -0.8 -0.6 -0.3 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.6

2010 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.4 -0.2 -0.7 -1.0 -1.3 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6

2011 -1.4 -1.2 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 -1.1 -1.0

2012 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.2

2013 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3

2014 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7

2015 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.6

2016 2.5 2.1 1.6 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6

2017 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.8 -1.0

2018 -0.9 -0.9 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.8

2019 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5

2020 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.9 -1.2 -1.3 -1.2

2021 -1.0 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 Monthly Climate Assessment and Outlook Issued: 06 September 2021

• ENSO-neutral conditions still persist in the Tropical Pacific/ La Niña Watch.

 Near to slightly cooler than average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) observed and favored to continue until the July-August-September 2021 season

 Most climate models indicate that La Niña is more likely to start in October-November-December 2021 season but is not predicted to persist long enough to constitute a La Niña event.

http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/climate/climate-advisories Press Statement Issued: 13 September 2021

La Niña Alert

• PAGASA's recent climate monitoring and analyses indicate that La Niña may emerge in the coming months.

• Based on latest forecasts by most climate models and expert judgements, there is a 70-80% chance of La Niña forming in the last quarter of 2021 which may persist until the first quarter of 2022.

http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/press-release

Weather Systems that affected the country AUGUST – SEPTEMBER 19, 2021

SOUTHWEST LOW PRESSURE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERLIES MONSOON AREAS (LPAs)

TD “GORIO” (Aug 4) TS “HUANING” LUPIT (Aug 7) TS “ISANG” OMAIS (Aug 19 – 22) TY “JOLINA” CONSON ( Sep 6-9) TY “KIKO” CHANTHU ( Sep 7-12) RIDGE OF HIGH TROPICAL CYCLONES PRESSURE AREAS (HPAs) INTER-TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ) Understanding our Rainfall Maps

PERCENTAGE (%) RAINFALL CONDITION Less than 40 % way below normal 41 – 80 % below normal 81 – 120 % near normal Greater than 120 % above normal

Percent of Normal = Actual Rainfall x 100% Normal Rainfall Monthly Rainfall ACTUAL RAINFALL PER (August 2021) PROVINCE mm %N PROVINCE mm %N CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR) REGION VI (WESTERN ) 651.4 62.6 364.5 92.3 1268.0 106.4 453.5 67.2 417.3 100.1 219.5 91.3 272.5 61.5 392.1 49.2 293.0 61.9 300.5 63.7 567.9 82.7 185.5 76.2 REGION I REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS) 596.3 68.4 159.1 114.4 1260.6 73.3 91.6 78.1 1627.0 92.7 115.1 93.9 609.2 76.5 136.3 112.8 REGION II REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS) 225.6 118.3 59.9 83.2 144.6 63.3 EASTERN 234.0 136.7 251.9 74.6 134.0 77.6 275.7 118.9 223.4 72.5 26.0 114.5 SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) 167.7 94.7 REGION III (CENTRAL ) 123.3 83.7 1391.3 44.0 REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA) 668.3 77.4 183.4 77.6 332.7 105.7 154.1 80.9 732.3 69.3 154.6 65.6 340.5 73.2 REGION X (NORTHERN ) 1127.1 50.9 203.1 88.0 298.0 104.9 147.6 95.8 NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION 199.2 113.5 METRO 718.0 40.5 229.8 105.1 REGION IV-A (CALABARZON) 204.0 105.9 597.9 68.8 REGION XI ( REGION) 749.9 42.1 218.1 93.4 490.2 63.3 222.4 91.4 603.2 55.9 209.5 83.1 QUEZON 390.3 95.8 205.8 99.4 REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA) 147.0 99.5 560.3 98.8 848.2 101.6 681.5 66.6 REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN) 606.4 80.0 SOUTH 141.1 80.3 1882.1 101.7 COTABATO 204.4 77.9 294.6 58.7 122.4 89.9 REGION V (BICOL) 176.5 66.0 204.8 91.7 REGION XIII- 245.8 108.4 125.6 182.8 250.7 102.7 225.8 131.0 355.4 174.9 128.9 136.8 2388.2 98.6 DEL NORTE 285.1 143.0 184.1 97.4 244.5 151.8 ARMM 0 % Way Below Nor 50 % Near Normal 77.2 56.3 181.0 60.5 175.0 109.5 924.3 73.3 42 % Below Normal 8 % Above Normal TAWI-TAWI 924.3 74.6 Monthly Rainfall ACTUAL RAINFALL PER PROVINCE (as of September 19 2021)

PROVINCE mm %N PROVINCE mm %N CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR) REGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS) ABRA 240.3 62.2 AKLAN 257.6 94.8 BENGUET 359.4 73.5 ANTIQUE 199.9 72.1 IFUGAO 194.0 55.6 CAPIZ 231.8 93.0 KALINGA 149.8 47.8 GUIMARAS 233.3 72.5 APAYAO 158.0 46.4 ILOILO 199.7 75.3 MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 205.0 55.6 NEGROS OCCIDENTAL 267.7 89.9 REGION I REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS) ILOCOS NORTE 235.7 60.6 NEGROS ORIENTAL 235.8 110.8 ILOCOS SUR 316.5 69.7 BOHOL 137.7 89.7 LA UNION 385.6 72.0 CEBU 191.5 86.7 PANGASINAN 264.0 63.0 SIQUIJOR 138.8 108.3 REGION II REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS) BATANES 177.8 50.7 BILIRAN 174.4 75.3 CAGAYAN 115.5 39.8 257.1 134.6 ISABELA 123.0 44.3 LEYTE 217.0 96.8 NUEVA VIZCAYA 220.1 62.1 NORTHERN SAMAR 148.1 79.4 QUIRINO 120.8 48.8 SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) 193.3 94.6 REGION III () SOUTHERN LEYTE 228.1 107.4 BATAAN 377.7 72.3 REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA) BULACAN 420.1 110.9 ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 154.7 75.1 NUEVA ECIJA 305.5 92.2 ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 158.6 80.4 PAMPANGA 345.0 96.5 ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 164.3 79.2 TARLAC 234.4 81.9 REGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO) ZAMBALES 311.3 71.1 BUKIDNON 274.3 99.7 AURORA 212.4 69.2 CAMIGUIN 91.4 62.5 NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION LANAO DEL NORTE 190.7 92.2 319.7 84.6 MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL 143.1 76.0 REGION IV-A (CALABARZON) MISAMIS ORIENTAL 139.2 63.4 BATANGAS 281.4 101.7 REGION XI () CAVITE 251.9 72.7 DAVAO DE ORO 149.8 77.9 LAGUNA 291.5 95.9 DAVAO CITY 187.1 82.2 RIZAL 347.0 95.8 DAVAO DEL NORTE 200.7 86.5 QUEZON 324.6 116.4 DAVAO DEL SUR 129.5 75.0 REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA) DAVAO OCCIDENTAL 101.7 76.7 MARINDUQUE 324.1 127.7 DAVAO ORIENTAL 130.2 75.5 OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 284.8 92.3 REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN) ORIENTAL MINDORO 281.2 102.8 111.0 77.9 ROMBLON 256.7 98.2 COTABATO 230.3 94.7 PALAWAN 192.2 68.0 SARANGANI 96.6 77.9 REGION V (BICOL) SULTAN KUDARAT 151.6 79.1 ALBAY 177.7 77.6 REGION XIII- CARAGA CAMARINES NORTE 233.1 91.1 AGUSAN DEL NORTE 130.0 79.3 CAMARINES SUR 181.9 71.1 AGUSAN DEL SUR 183.7 83.2 CATANDUANES 172.7 75.1 DINAGAT ISLANDS 223.9 121.3 MASBATE 239.3 109.7 166.1 101.4 SORSOGON 204.4 91.2 SURIGAO DEL SUR 139.1 80.4 1 % Way Below Nor 46 % Near Normal ARMM BASILAN 132.9 82.2 MAGUINDANAO 209.7 91.2 49 % Below Normal 4 % Above Normal LANAO DEL SUR 250.5 108.1 SULU 148.1 80.7 TAWI-TAWI 136.7 73.7 Temperature Assessment and Observed Extremes for August 2021 Temperature Assessment and Observed Extremes for September 1-19, 2021 Observed Temperature Extremes TC Passage & Accumulated Rainfall (AUGUST 2021)

All these TCs did not make landfall however, STS “Isang” slightly enhanced the SW monsoon which brought rainfall in some parts of western and central Luzon. TC Passage & Accumulated Rainfall (SEPTEMBER 2021)

Data Source: WEATHER DIVISION- PAGASA Impacts of TY “Jolina”

Typhoon Jolina: At least 9 injured, 1 missing in Eastern Samar

RAPPLER

The typhoon also triggered power outages in several areas in the Eastern Visayas including Samar, Eastern Samar and Leyte. Impacts of TY “Jolina” Impacts of TY “Jolina”

MANILA – Several low-lying areas in Metro Manila are inundated in floodwaters due to non-stop rains brought by Severe Tropical Storm Jolina (international name CONSON) Wednesday. Impacts of TY “Jolina” TC Passage & Accumulated Rainfall (SEPTEMBER 2021)

The Southwest Monsoon enhanced by Typhoon "Kiko" (Chanthu) brought moderate to heavy rains in most parts of Luzon (especially in Ilocos Region, CAR, Central Luzon, CALABARZON, MM and MIMAROPA) & Western Visayas. Impacts of TY “Kiko”

BATANES: Hardest hit • Typhoon “KIKO” made landfall in IVANA, BATANES on Sept 11, 2021. • Brought heavy to intense with at times torrential rains and strong winds up to 215 kph. Impacts of TY “Kiko” in Batanes

Photo Credits Monthly Climatology of Tropical Cyclone Tracks (1948-2016)

SUMMARY

ENSO Alert System Status La Niña Alert Rainfall Temperature August 2021 • Below to near normal rainfall conditions were • Average to slightly warmer than average surface experienced in most parts of the country except air temperatures were observed in most parts of for some patches of above normal rainfall the country except in some areas of Central conditions in Catanduanes, Eastern Samar and Luzon, Cagayan, Palawan and western portion of CARAGA Region in Mindanao. Mindanao.

September 1-19, 2021 • Below to near Normal Rainfall conditions in most • Generally near average to slightly above average parts of the country except in Isabela. surface air temperatures were observed in most parts of the country except in some areas in southern Luzon & Surigao. Website: www.bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph Facebook: www.facebook.com/pagasa.dost.gov.ph Twitter: @dost_pagasa

PAGASA new Number Trunkline: (02) 8284- 0800

Typhoon Climate 927-1541 Local 905/906 Local 805

Flood IEC Local 808 Local 102/103