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140th National Climate Forum 22 September 2021 CLIMATE REVIEW August – September 19, 2021 Prepared by: Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS) CLIMATOLOGY & AGROMETEOROLOGY DIVISION (CAD) PAGASA-DOST, Quezon City Presented by: REMEDIOS L. CIERVO Senior Weather Specialist C O N T E N T S Recent ENSO Conditions Weather Systems Climate Assessment Summary El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) • A large-scale variability resulting from the interactions between the ocean and atmosphere in the tropical Pacific. YOU Phases of ENSO: ARE HERE El Niño – unusual warming in the CEEP La Niña – unusual cooling in the CEEP Neutral – neither El Niño nor La Niña SST Departures (oC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last Four Weeks In the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were near-to-below average across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and were above-average in the western Pacific Ocean. Oceanic Indicator ENSO INDICATORS Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) 1.5 MONTHLY SSTA (AUGUST 2019 - AUGUST 2021) 1 El Niño 0.5 C ° 0 Neutral -0.5 ANOMALY ANOMALY -1 La Niña -1.5 Data Source: Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Atmospheric indicator (SOI) and oceanic Atmospheric Indicator indicator (SSTA) remain within the neutral Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) levels. (as of August 2021) MONTHLY SOI (AUGUST 2019 - AUGUST 2021) 20 15 La Niña 10 DIFF. 5 0 Neutral -5 PRESSURE PRESSURE -10 El Niño Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) standardized anomaly of the -15 mean sea level pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin Data Source: Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) JUN- JUL- AUG 2021) JUNE & JULY 2021 SSTA- The sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) across the tropical Pacific were near average (0ºC to -0.5ºC) while slightly warmer SSTs were observed in the western Pacific (0°C to > 0.5°C). August 2021 SSTA- The sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) across the tropical Pacific were still near average (-0.4ºC to -0.5ºC) for the month, while slightly warmer SSTs were observed in the western Pacific (0.3°C to > 0.8°C). http://seacm.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/analysis/sst/2021 Historical El Niño and La Niña Episodes Based on the ONI computed using ERSST.v5 Recent Pacific warm (red) and cold (blue) periods based on a threshold of +/- 0.5 ºC for the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) [3 month running mean of ERSST.v5 SST anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region (5N-5S, 120- 170W)]. For historical purposes, periods of below and above normal SSTs are colored in blue and red when the threshold is met for a minimum of 5 consecutive over-lapping seasons. The ONI is one measure of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and other indices can confirm whether features consistent with a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon accompanied these periods Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2009 -0.8 -0.8 -0.6 -0.3 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.6 2010 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.4 -0.2 -0.7 -1.0 -1.3 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.2 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.2 2013 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 2014 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 2015 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.6 2016 2.5 2.1 1.6 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2017 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.8 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.9 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.8 2019 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 2020 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.9 -1.2 -1.3 -1.2 2021 -1.0 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 Monthly Climate Assessment and Outlook Issued: 06 September 2021 • ENSO-neutral conditions still persist in the Tropical Pacific/ La Niña Watch. Near to slightly cooler than average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) observed and favored to continue until the July-August-September 2021 season Most climate models indicate that La Niña is more likely to start in October-November-December 2021 season but is not predicted to persist long enough to constitute a La Niña event. http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/climate/climate-advisories Press Statement Issued: 13 September 2021 La Niña Alert • PAGASA's recent climate monitoring and analyses indicate that La Niña may emerge in the coming months. • Based on latest forecasts by most climate models and expert judgements, there is a 70-80% chance of La Niña forming in the last quarter of 2021 which may persist until the first quarter of 2022. http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/press-release Weather Systems that affected the country AUGUST – SEPTEMBER 19, 2021 SOUTHWEST LOW PRESSURE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERLIES MONSOON AREAS (LPAs) TD “GORIO” (Aug 4) TS “HUANING” LUPIT (Aug 7) TS “ISANG” OMAIS (Aug 19 – 22) TY “JOLINA” CONSON ( Sep 6-9) TY “KIKO” CHANTHU ( Sep 7-12) RIDGE OF HIGH TROPICAL CYCLONES PRESSURE AREAS (HPAs) INTER-TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ) Understanding our Rainfall Maps PERCENTAGE (%) RAINFALL CONDITION Less than 40 % way below normal 41 – 80 % below normal 81 – 120 % near normal Greater than 120 % above normal Percent of Normal = Actual Rainfall x 100% Normal Rainfall Monthly Rainfall ACTUAL RAINFALL PER PROVINCE (August 2021) PROVINCE mm %N PROVINCE mm %N CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR) REGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS) ABRA 651.4 62.6 AKLAN 364.5 92.3 BENGUET 1268.0 106.4 ANTIQUE 453.5 67.2 IFUGAO 417.3 100.1 CAPIZ 219.5 91.3 KALINGA 272.5 61.5 GUIMARAS 392.1 49.2 APAYAO 293.0 61.9 ILOILO 300.5 63.7 MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 567.9 82.7 NEGROS OCCIDENTAL 185.5 76.2 REGION I REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS) ILOCOS NORTE 596.3 68.4 NEGROS ORIENTAL 159.1 114.4 ILOCOS SUR 1260.6 73.3 BOHOL 91.6 78.1 LA UNION 1627.0 92.7 CEBU 115.1 93.9 PANGASINAN 609.2 76.5 SIQUIJOR 136.3 112.8 REGION II REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS) BATANES 225.6 118.3 BILIRAN 59.9 83.2 CAGAYAN 144.6 63.3 EASTERN SAMAR 234.0 136.7 ISABELA 251.9 74.6 LEYTE 134.0 77.6 NUEVA VIZCAYA 275.7 118.9 NORTHERN SAMAR 223.4 72.5 QUIRINO 26.0 114.5 SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) 167.7 94.7 REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON) SOUTHERN LEYTE 123.3 83.7 BATAAN 1391.3 44.0 REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA) BULACAN 668.3 77.4 ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 183.4 77.6 NUEVA ECIJA 332.7 105.7 ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 154.1 80.9 PAMPANGA 732.3 69.3 ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 154.6 65.6 TARLAC 340.5 73.2 REGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO) ZAMBALES 1127.1 50.9 BUKIDNON 203.1 88.0 AURORA 298.0 104.9 CAMIGUIN 147.6 95.8 NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION LANAO DEL NORTE 199.2 113.5 METRO MANILA 718.0 40.5 MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL 229.8 105.1 REGION IV-A (CALABARZON) MISAMIS ORIENTAL 204.0 105.9 BATANGAS 597.9 68.8 REGION XI (DAVAO REGION) CAVITE 749.9 42.1 DAVAO DE ORO 218.1 93.4 LAGUNA 490.2 63.3 DAVAO CITY 222.4 91.4 RIZAL 603.2 55.9 DAVAO DEL NORTE 209.5 83.1 QUEZON 390.3 95.8 DAVAO DEL SUR 205.8 99.4 REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA) DAVAO OCCIDENTAL 147.0 99.5 MARINDUQUE 560.3 98.8 DAVAO ORIENTAL 848.2 101.6 OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 681.5 66.6 REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN) ORIENTAL MINDORO 606.4 80.0 SOUTH COTABATO 141.1 80.3 ROMBLON 1882.1 101.7 COTABATO 204.4 77.9 PALAWAN 294.6 58.7 SARANGANI 122.4 89.9 REGION V (BICOL) SULTAN KUDARAT 176.5 66.0 ALBAY 204.8 91.7 REGION XIII- CARAGA CAMARINES NORTE 245.8 108.4 AGUSAN DEL NORTE 125.6 182.8 CAMARINES SUR 250.7 102.7 AGUSAN DEL SUR 225.8 131.0 CATANDUANES 355.4 174.9 DINAGAT ISLANDS 128.9 136.8 MASBATE 2388.2 98.6 SURIGAO DEL NORTE 285.1 143.0 SORSOGON 184.1 97.4 SURIGAO DEL SUR 244.5 151.8 ARMM 0 % Way Below Nor 50 % Near Normal BASILAN 77.2 56.3 MAGUINDANAO 181.0 60.5 LANAO DEL SUR 175.0 109.5 SULU 924.3 73.3 42 % Below Normal 8 % Above Normal TAWI-TAWI 924.3 74.6 Monthly Rainfall ACTUAL RAINFALL PER PROVINCE (as of September 19 2021) PROVINCE mm %N PROVINCE mm %N CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR) REGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS) ABRA 240.3 62.2 AKLAN 257.6 94.8 BENGUET 359.4 73.5 ANTIQUE 199.9 72.1 IFUGAO 194.0 55.6 CAPIZ 231.8 93.0 KALINGA 149.8 47.8 GUIMARAS 233.3 72.5 APAYAO 158.0 46.4 ILOILO 199.7 75.3 MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 205.0 55.6 NEGROS OCCIDENTAL 267.7 89.9 REGION I REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS) ILOCOS NORTE 235.7 60.6 NEGROS ORIENTAL 235.8 110.8 ILOCOS SUR 316.5 69.7 BOHOL 137.7 89.7 LA UNION 385.6 72.0 CEBU 191.5 86.7 PANGASINAN 264.0 63.0 SIQUIJOR 138.8 108.3 REGION II REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS) BATANES 177.8 50.7 BILIRAN 174.4 75.3 CAGAYAN 115.5 39.8 EASTERN SAMAR 257.1 134.6 ISABELA 123.0 44.3 LEYTE 217.0 96.8 NUEVA VIZCAYA 220.1 62.1 NORTHERN SAMAR 148.1 79.4 QUIRINO 120.8 48.8 SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) 193.3 94.6 REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON) SOUTHERN LEYTE 228.1 107.4 BATAAN 377.7 72.3 REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA) BULACAN 420.1 110.9 ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 154.7 75.1 NUEVA ECIJA 305.5 92.2 ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 158.6 80.4 PAMPANGA 345.0 96.5 ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 164.3 79.2 TARLAC 234.4 81.9 REGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO) ZAMBALES 311.3 71.1 BUKIDNON 274.3 99.7 AURORA 212.4 69.2 CAMIGUIN 91.4 62.5 NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION LANAO DEL NORTE 190.7 92.2 METRO MANILA 319.7 84.6 MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL 143.1 76.0 REGION IV-A (CALABARZON) MISAMIS ORIENTAL 139.2 63.4 BATANGAS 281.4 101.7 REGION XI (DAVAO REGION) CAVITE 251.9 72.7 DAVAO DE ORO 149.8 77.9 LAGUNA 291.5 95.9 DAVAO CITY 187.1 82.2 RIZAL 347.0 95.8 DAVAO DEL NORTE 200.7 86.5 QUEZON 324.6 116.4 DAVAO DEL SUR 129.5 75.0 REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA) DAVAO OCCIDENTAL 101.7 76.7 MARINDUQUE 324.1 127.7 DAVAO ORIENTAL 130.2 75.5 OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 284.8 92.3 REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN) ORIENTAL MINDORO 281.2 102.8 SOUTH COTABATO 111.0 77.9 ROMBLON 256.7 98.2 COTABATO 230.3 94.7 PALAWAN 192.2 68.0 SARANGANI 96.6 77.9 REGION V (BICOL) SULTAN KUDARAT 151.6 79.1 ALBAY 177.7 77.6 REGION XIII- CARAGA CAMARINES NORTE 233.1 91.1 AGUSAN DEL NORTE 130.0 79.3 CAMARINES SUR