Israel and Middle East News Update

Monday, December 28

Headlines: ● Blue & White Breaks Apart with Departures of Key Figures ● Poll: Neither Netanyahu nor SA’AR Have Path to Coalition ● to Approve New Housing Before Biden Swear-In ● Nasrallah Claims Saudi-US-Israel Plot to Assassinate Him ● PA: Palestinian Prisoners to Receive COVID-19 Vaccine ● UAE Joins Egypt-Led Eastern Med Gas Forum ● Moroccan Delegation Arrives in Israel ● Rafael to Outfit IDF with Drones That Spot Threats

Commentary: ● Ma’ariv: “Gabi’s Dilemma’’ - By Ben Caspit

● Yedioth Ahronoth: “A Lone Man, Surrounded by Criminals” - By Nahum Barnea

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 1725 I St NW Suite 300, Washington, DC 20006 The Hon. Robert Wexler, President News Excerpts December 28, 2020 Ynet News Blue & White Breaks Apart with Departures of Key Figures Leader and Defense Minister Benny Gantz dismissed MKs Asaf Zamir and Miki Haimovich after both lawmakers refused to vote in favor of a motion postponing the deadline for the government to present a state budget and preventing another round of elections. Gantz also met with his no. 2, Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi, who is currently deliberating on whether to retire from political life outright or form a new party ahead of the March 2021 elections. Haimovich and Zamir's dismissal from Blue & White came after the two, alongside MK Ram Shefa, chose to vote against the compromise between Gantz and Prime Minister to extend the deadline for a state budget until December 31. See also ‘‘The Real Reason Behind Israel's Elections: The Role of Israel's Courts’’ (Jerusalem Post)

Times of Israel Poll: Neither Netanyahu nor SA’AR Have Path to Coalition Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud would be the largest party in the upcoming election, according to a Channel 12 poll, which indicated that neither he nor rival Gideon Sa’ar’s New Hope would be likely to cobble together a coalition without each other. The poll ahead of the March elections — Israel’s fourth national vote in two years — found little change from previous surveys. Though Netanyahu lacked a clear path to forming a government, it was unclear from the survey results if an alternative coalition could be assembled, with the parties opposing the Likud leader divided ideologically and over the question of who should be premier. See also ‘‘Top Strategist: ‘the One Thing That Could Save Netanyahu,’ and 9 Other Insights’’ (Times of Israel)

I24 News Israel to Approve New Housing Before Biden Swear-In Israel is expected to green light construction of new housing units in the eastern part of Jerusalem before the swearing-in of President-elect Joe Biden on January 20, KAN reported. The Defense Ministry unit responsible for authorizing construction of settlements in the West Bank is expected to meet within the next 2 weeks to move construction projects forward. According to the Jerusalem Municipality, the subcommittee is expected to approve the construction of 108 housing units in the Ramat Shlomo neighborhood. As Vice President of the Obama administration, Biden denounced the construction of 1,600 housing units in 2010, during a trip to Israel. In October, after a seven-month hiatus, the subcommittee approved the construction of more than 5,000 homes in 2 days. Several hundred of these approvals were for houses that were already illegally built, but which will be retroactively legalized. See also ‘‘Settlers: If Netanyahu Wants Votes, He Must Legalize Outposts’’ (Jerusalem Post)

2 Jerusalem Post Nasrallah Claims Saudi-US-Israel Plot to Assassinate Him Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah claimed that Saudi Arabia sought to discuss with the US and Israel his assassination, pointing to US Central Command Mark Miley’s recent visit to Israel as evidence. Nasrallah accused President Trump of acting impulsively and unpredictably in the region. He also said that Saudi Arabia has been acting without reason in recent years, with hatred toward Hezbollah. Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) has sought to oppose Hezbollah’s role in Lebanon in the past. Nasrallah linked the alleged plans to assassinate him to the US killing of IRGC Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani and Kataib Hezbollah leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis in January 2020. The anniversary of their deaths is approaching, and Nasrallah wants to claim he is as important as they were. Tensions are high in the region between the US and Iran and Hezbollah. See also ‘‘Iranian Official Warns Any Israeli Submarine That Reaches Gulf Will Be Targeted’’ (I24 News)

Jerusalem Post PA: Palestinian Prisoners to Receive COVID-19 Vaccine Israel has informed Palestinian security prisoners that they will be vaccinated against COVID-19 in the next few days, Qadri Abu Baker, Director of the Palestinian Authority’s (PA) Prisoners and Ex- Prisoners Commission, announced. Abu Baker told the PA news agency WAFA that the vaccination for the prisoners will not be compulsory. He revealed that some prisoners have expressed their desire to receive the vaccine. He said the PA was planning to ask Israel to allow Palestinian or foreign doctors to supervise the vaccination. The prisoners will receive the vaccine produced by Pfizer, he said. Vaccines against COVID-19 will be available to Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip within the next two weeks, a senior official with the PA Health Ministry said. The PA, he said, was in touch with the World Health Organization and the companies that produce the coronavirus vaccines to make sure that they are provided to the Palestinians as soon as possible. See also ‘‘Israel, UAE Plotting to Eliminate UNRWA – Report’’ (Jerusalem Post)

Al-Monitor UAE Joins Egypt-Led Eastern Med Gas Forum A presidential statement said the UAE has joined the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF) as an observer. “Egyptian President Sisi underlined the importance of the added value that the UAE will contribute to the forum’s activities to serve the strategic interests and enhance cooperation and partnership between the forum countries,”. The EMGF was established as an intergovernmental organization by Egypt, Israel, Greece, Cyprus, Italy, Jordan, and Palestine. Founders say the forum aims to facilitate talks among Mediterranean countries about exporting natural gas, cooperating on various energy issues and advancing the construction of an undersea pipeline that would transfer gas to the south of Europe. France has applied to join the Cairo-based forum, while the US and the EU requested observer status. Energy-hungry Turkey has denounced the EMGF as an attempt to exclude it from the gas equation in the Eastern Mediterranean. See also ‘‘2020: The Year Sudan Ended Its Isolation and Looked to Peace with Israel’’ (Jerusalem Post)

3 Jerusalem Post Moroccan Delegation Arrives in Israel A Moroccan diplomatic delegation landed in Israel for the first time since normalization was announced. The delegation plans to work towards reopening the Moroccan liaison office in , which it has held onto for the past 20 years since Rabat cut official ties. Israel has also retained its closed office in Morocco. The Moroccan delegation is also expected to prepare for a high-level delegation to come to Israel at a later date that is still undetermined. The Moroccan diplomats have meetings scheduled in the Israeli Foreign Ministry, but they do not have any public events or statements on their agenda. Prime Minister Netanyahu invited Morocco's King Mohammed VI to visit Israel, in a phone conversation over the weekend. Netanyahu's office characterized the conversation as "warm and friendly," and taking place in French, English, Hebrew and Arabic. Israel and Morocco first forged diplomatic relations in 1994, though the countries had unofficial relations for decades before that. They did not have full diplomatic ties, and the new relations are resuming from that point, moving towards full diplomatic relations. Morocco broke off ties with Israel during the Second Intifada in 2000, but in recent years, tens of thousands of Israelis have visited the North African state each year. An estimated 1 million Israeli Jews have roots in Morocco. See also ‘‘Israel, Morocco Sign First Economic Agreement’’ (Israel Hayom)

Times of Israel Rafael to Outfit IDF with Drones That Spot Threats The Rafael defense contractor unveiled a number of new weapons and systems, including miniature drones and a robotic dog, which it plans to sell to the IDF and foreign militaries and that it claims will change the face of modern warfare. The company, one of Israel’s leading weapons manufacturers, sees these technological developments as a step toward a more interconnected and intelligent future battlefield, one in which many of the impediments to proper communication between various units and vehicles have been removed, granting the entire military access to up-to-date information and intelligence. Improved communication between various branches of the military is a central point of IDF Chief of Staff Aviv Kohavi’s Momentum Plan. A main lynchpin of that plan is a powerful mapping and communication system produced by Rafael known as Smart Trigger, which allows for the rapid sharing of intelligence between units and allows commanders to easily determine which troops are in the best position to attack a target. Rafael is developing a number of devices that can grant access to this system — and the information it contains, which was once only available to senior commanders — to individual troops on the battlefield. See also ‘‘Rafael Unveils AI, Deep Learning Tech for IDF Infantry Troops’’ (Jerusalem Post)

4 Ma’ariv – December 28, 2020 Gabi’s Dilemma By Ben Caspit ● Gabi Ashkenazi is at a crossroads. He deliberated at length before deciding to “get in under the stretcher,” and he never imagined that he would ultimately find himself on it [i.e., injured]. Ashkenazi doesn’t suffer from delusions of grandeur and he is not obsessed with holding power. To the contrary, he came to be what he described as the “penny that makes the pound” [i.e., to complement a larger effort]. In the end it was the pound that was turned into a penny. He was Benny Gantz’s most loyal soldier. In return, he found himself ignored in the best case and frozen out in the less best case. He knows that many other people in his shoes would long ago have drawn a knife, but he isn’t built that way. He was mistreated but isn’t willing to repay that with mistreatment. Even now he is still convinced that Benny Gantz did what he did on behalf of the country. He believes that the problem isn’t with what Gantz did, only with the way he did it. ● As opposed to his popular public image, behind that rough and tough Golanchik who chews gravel and smokes Europa cigarettes [a cheap local Israeli brand] lurks a political softie. So, what will Ashkenazi do? The more reasonable choice for him is either to retire from politics or to take a “timeout.” He is seriously considering doing just that. Another reasonable option is to get Benny Gantz to understand his true situation. If I were Ashkenazi, I would take Gantz for a one-on-one, and say to him: “I displayed loyalty, now it’s time for you to display responsibility.” He needs to make it clear to Gantz that he won’t run with him again. There’s a limit. “You can’t go on,” Ashkenazi needs to say to Gantz. “Israel needs to come before everything else.” It’s my understanding that Avi Nissenkorn holds a similar view. ● If Gantz can be persuaded, Blue & White might be able to rebuild itself out of the ruins. Under those circumstances, Gadi Eisenkot can be brought into Blue & White, making it the Golani party. That would allow the party to make mergers with other players from a position of strength (Huldai and Shelah, for instance). The problem is that Gantz isn’t cognizant of his real situation. He is surrounded by yes-men who indulge his illusions and keep telling him tall tales. They’ve already done a lot of damage, but they aren’t done yet. They’ve been urging him to persevere. After all, there’s always some more damage that can still be done. ● Take Hod Betzer, for example. So much has already been said about Benny Gantz’s right- hand man who is actually his lame left hand. He carries the title of “director general of the Alternate Prime Minister’s Office.” That disgrace will remain with us at least through May 2021. It is costing us a fortune to operate. They built a ministry with secretaries, aides, a chief of staff, a driver and a state-issued vehicle. Benny Gantz ought to put an end to that this morning. Every joke stops being funny at a certain point. What happens if Gantz stays on? Then Ashkenazi will either withdraw from political life or will consider other options. One of those options is a new political party, possibly one that swallows up the Labor Party. , Ofer Shelah, Tzipi Livni and possibly even .

5 ● It takes a truly diseased imagination to envision Gabi Ashkenazi and Ehud Barak standing together under a single political canopy. The only person who has the capacity to make that happen is Binyamin Netanyahu. A final option is to join either Gideon Saar or Avigdor Liberman. Ashkenazi and Saar have had a good relationship ever since Ashkenazi was the IDF chief of staff. He also has a reasonably trusting relationship with Liberman. Saar and Liberman have been courting Eisenkot assiduously. He is, after all, a freshly-minted former chief of staff. Anything is possible.

6 Yedioth Ahronoth – December 28, 2020 A Lone Man, Surrounded by Criminals By Nahum Barnea ● Good people often ask me: why do you call for an end to Netanyahu’s tenure? After all, no matter who comes after him—Saar, Bennett or one of the Likud ministers—he will be less talented, less experienced and more of an extremist. The situation will only become worse. One answer to that question is expressed every Saturday night by thousands of demonstrators: bribery, fraud and breach of trust; he is corrupt and, therefore, he has to go. In my opinion, that answer is too easy. First of all, Netanyahu hasn’t been convicted yet; every person is entitled to his or her day in court. Second, even if the attorney general were to decide to close all the cases against him, I would still hope for a different prime minister to be elected. The criminal cases are only the tip of the iceberg. ● That assertion needs to be explained. I could start with the lockdown, the third in number, that was imposed on us last night. The team of experts that Netanyahu formed recommended that restrictions be imposed, but not a full-scale lockdown. We need to give the vaccines a chance [they said]. So why did he bypass the experts, push for a full- scale lockdown and agree only to exempt schools from it? I would propose the following simple explanation: while it is true that a full-scale lockdown will cost 10 billion shekels and will force a large number of small businesses into bankruptcy, it will look great on the statistical charts that will be broadcast on the television screens. In March, on the eve of the next election, Netanyahu will be able to send the public to go out to regale—just as he did on Black Friday and just as he did at Ben Gurion Airport—and he will be able to say, once again, that we’re first place in the world. So why did he exempt the schools? The explanation is even simpler: he knows that the Haredim aren’t going to shut down their schools and that no one is going to do anything about that, especially not in the run-up to elections. ● The [other] parents’ furious cries of outrage would impact the outcome of the elections. The third lockdown in its current form came into being in order to serve the campaign purposes of the Netanyahu-Haredi bloc. The politicization of the pandemic was here from the first day, and it is going to stay until the last day. That isn’t grounds to violate the lockdown, but it is a good example of the problems that are endemic to his continued tenure. Eleven consecutive years in power have an impact; he, and even more so the people who are closest to him, are convinced that they are destined to rule forever. ● They are supported by supporters, some of whom are mercenaries while others are volunteers, who are prepared to go a very long way in order to locate, neutralize and stamp out anyone who is perceived as posing a threat to the eternity of their rule. It starts with intelligence work: they gather material about every politician who begins to gain any public traction. That person can be a member of the Likud who has displayed an independent streak or a member of a rival party; it can also be a general who has just retired or a journalist who has dared to raise his head. If there’s an embarrassing story, someone will sniff it out.

7 ● Next comes the deception stage: they get someone to chat up their mark, they make a recording and then disseminate it. Uvda provided us with a glimpse into that method. Yisrael Bachar, the political strategist who was duped, was chatted up by a rabbi; Ariel Roth, who is a partner of Netanyahu’s lawyer, Attorney Amit Hadad in the same law firm, was allegedly caught on camera promoting a similar gambit: he [spoke about] hiring someone to get a relative of one of the judges in the Netanyahu trial to say something nasty about the defendant. Those nasty remarks would then be published, the judge would be forced to recuse herself or himself, and the trial would be postponed. ● An important component of the method is maintaining distance and maintaining deniability. Netanyahu is familiar with that term. He didn’t know, he didn’t hear, he didn’t see. The things that were done, if they were done, were done by supporters whose zeal for the leader’s status has gone to their heads. According to his own statements to the police in Case 4,000, Netanyahu didn’t know what his own wife may have done, and he certainly didn’t know what his lawyer’s partner may have done. We cannot rule out the possibility that that is truly the case: the ring that has been created around him knows that he can’t be made privy. He is the saint whose dirty work gets done by others. But the actions nevertheless get committed, and they have consequences. A black cloud hovers over Netanyahu’s fight to survive. ● On the day-to-day level that cloud adversely affects decisions that are made about the coronavirus. At the extreme fringes it culminates in extortion, intimidation and violence. There are people who are afraid—in the civil service, in politics and in the media. They are afraid to speak their mind, to fight for their opinions and even to be seen in public with anyone who is frowned upon by the prime minister’s inner circle. That is just one reason to prefer Saar and others like him over Netanyahu. No one is willing to blackmail, wiretap, spread lies on their behalf. One person predicted the danger. He warned against it in an interview to the Israel Broadcasting Authority in January 1993. “There is one person (in the Likud) who is surrounded by a bunch of criminals. That is a cancer that is going to spread throughout our entire society. Anyone who uses methods of spying and recording belongs in prison.” The person who made the above comment was Binyamin Netanyahu, regarding a recording that ultimately proved to be non-existent.

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