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20 Year History Book Twenty years of producer-consumerThe International Energy Forum dialogue in a changing world Bassam Fattouh and Coby van der Linde 1 2 International Energy Forum From its humble beginnings in Paris in 1991 the global producer – consumer dialogue on energy has developed through the International Energy Forum (IEF) so that it is now the world’s largest gathering of Energy Ministers. IEF Countries account for more than 90% of global oil and gas supply and demand. In addition to IEA and OPEC countries, transit states and key energy players, including Brazil, China, India, Mexico, Russia and South Africa, participate in the Forum. The magnitude and diversity of this engagement is a testament to the IEF’s position as a neutral facilitator. Through the Forum and its associated events, IEF Ministers, their of�icials, energy industry executives, and other experts engage in a dialogue of increasing importance to global energy security. The twists, turns and developments of the 20 year history of the dialogue are documented here in this commemorative publication co-authored by Bassam Fattouh and Coby van der Linde. The content of this book is the full responsibility of the authors. They do not necessarily re�lect the views of the International Energy Forum, the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, the Clingendael International Energy Programme or any of their members. Title: The International Energy Forum, Twenty years of producer-consumer dialogue in a changing world Authors: Bassam Fattouh, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) Coby van der Linde, Clingendael International Energy Programme (CIEP) Copyright: IEF Year: 2011 Published by: IEF, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia Editing: Deborah Sherwood Layout: Jumana House, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia 3 Contents Chapter 1: The Framework of the Producer-Consumer Dialogue .......................................................7 Introduction................................................................................................................................................................ 7 The Conditions for the Producer-Consumer Dialogue ............................................................................. 8 Asymmetries in Dependency on a Strategic Commodity ........................................................................ 9 The Energy Problem..............................................................................................................................................10 Supply Disruptions and Supply Security Concerns..................................................................................11 The Investment Problem and Security of Demand ..................................................................................12 Price Instability .......................................................................................................................................................13 Energy Taxation and Subsidies.........................................................................................................................15 The Climate Change Agenda ..............................................................................................................................16 Interdependency ....................................................................................................................................................17 The Oil Market..........................................................................................................................................................18 Chapter 2: Shifting WorldsThe Producer-Consumer Dialogue .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................19 21 Introduction..............................................................................................................................................................21 Countries Always Balance and Re-balance..................................................................................................22 Perception..................................................................................................................................................................23 The Bretton Woods Governance System and Oil.......................................................................................24 The Structure of the Oil Market in the 1950s and 1960s ......................................................................25 The Pre-1973 Not-So-Homogeneous World and Oil................................................................................28 International System in Flux..............................................................................................................................30 A Year of Confrontation........................................................................................................................................32 Hard Transition .......................................................................................................................................................34 Managing Oil Markets and Money Income ..................................................................................................37 The Restructured Oil Value Chain After 1978 ............................................................................................39 OPEC Production Policy in a Depressed Oil Market.................................................................................40 Chapter 3: Shifting RelationsConclusion ..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................41 43 Introduction..............................................................................................................................................................43 Non-OECD Countries’ Perspective...................................................................................................................44 Confusion in OECD Consumer Country Relations ....................................................................................45 Maintaining Producer Unity...............................................................................................................................50 National versus International Governance..................................................................................................51 Maintaining Cohesion...........................................................................................................................................53 Chapter 4: From Confrontation to CooperationConclusion .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................55 57 Introduction..............................................................................................................................................................57 The 1990-1991 Gulf War and the Response to the Supply Disruption ...........................................57 The Isfahan Oil Conference.................................................................................................................................60 The Paris Energy Seminar...................................................................................................................................61 Oil Market Developments and the Dialogue in the 1990s.....................................................................63 The Producer-Consumer Dialogue and the 1998 Asian Financial Crisis........................................65 Colour Plates Conclusion.............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................68 69 4 Chapter 5: The 2000s - Shifts in Interests and the Institutionalisation of the IEF ..................... 85 Introduction..............................................................................................................................................................85 Shift in Interests......................................................................................................................................................86 The Institutional Evolution of the IEF ..........................................................................................................88 The Institutionalisation and Formality of the Dialogue.........................................................................95 Chapter 6: Oil Market Developments in the 2000s and the Content of the Dialogue ................. 97 Shifts in Global Oil Demand Dynamics .........................................................................................................97 Future Oil Supplies and the Investment Challenge..................................................................................99 The Investment Issue and the Producer-Consumer Dialogue in the 2000s...............................103 Investment-Related Topics..............................................................................................................................105
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