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1974 World Population .Year THE POPULATION OF TURKEY CI.CR.E.D. Series Printed by Dogu? Ltd. Çlrketl - ANKARA 19 7 4 World Population Year THE POPULATION OF TURKEY by Figen Karadayi, Serim Timur, Miroslav Macura, Sanaira Yener, Halûk Cillov, Handan Tezmen, Sunday Üner, Hüsnü A. Ki§ni§çi The Institute of Population Studies Hacettepe University Ankara PREFACE Until recent years, the importance of population growth as a determinant in social and economic changes has been underrated and little attention was paid to the characteristics of a population. Dur- ing the short period of time following the Second World War, the accelerated population growth rate in many countries has drawn our attention to the population problems. Especially in the less developed countries numerous attempts were made to solve the serious prob- lems related to rapid population growth, and several research works were initiated. Today, population growth and the composition of the population has been recognized everywhere both as the cause and determinant of social and economic development. During the last decade, similar attemps and studies have been made in Turkey, even if not as numerous as elsewhere. Turkey as a newcomer in this field has information and data on the subject of population, but only very limited and somewhat widely scattered. The Institute of Population Studies, being the only one of its kind in Turkey, has established a documentation center which com- piles available information and collects data for the use of scientists, planners and politicians. At the same time, in preparink a monographp for the 1974 Pop- ulation Year, we have attempted to follow the outline as suggested by UNFPA and CICRED ; past, present and future progress has been explained accordingly. The monograph is divided into seven chapters as listed in the Table of Contents. Whereas some of the facts used in the preparation of this . monograph are not quite up to date, others are the direct products of research projects conducted in very recent years. The works of several authors in this field are contained in this monograph. Thus, we sincerely hope that the presentation of this monograph will be of value to policitians, leaders, and administrators, as well as create a public interest in this field. It will also be an important source for social researchers. Gratitude is herewith expressed to the authorities of UNFPA and CICRED for making the financial arrangements, and the authors of the chapters of this monograph - Dr. Halûk Cillov, Figen Kara- dayi, Dr. Miroslav Macura, Handan Tezmen, Dr. Serim Timur, Dr. Sunday Üner, and Samira Yener for their contributions. I would also like to thank Hasan Serinken as the coordinator and Alev Bosuter, Ismail Igsever, Ergun Törüner, Mehmet Ögec and §ükrü Ögec for their services in typing and designing; Güliz Kunt and Türkiz Gökgöl for their help in editing and Feyzullah Ertugrul for his services in the printing of the monograph. Dr. Hiisnti Ki§ni§çi Director Institute of Population Studies Hacettepe University CONTENTS Page Preface 5 Chapter I Population Growth in Turkey, by Figen Karadayi, M. A. 11 Chapter II Components of Growth Section A.... Fertility, by Serim Timur, Ph. D 27 Section B .... Mortality, by Miroslav Macura, Ph. D 39 Section C .... International Migration, by Samira Yener, 46 M. A. Chapter in The Structure of The Turkish Population, by Halûk Cillov, Ph. D 57 Chapter IV International Migration and Population Redistribution in Turkey, by Handan Tezmen, M. A 87 Chapter V The Labour Force, by Sunday Uner, Ph. D Ill Chapter VI Population Projections, by Samira Yener, M. A 127 Chapter VII Economic and Social Implications of Population Growth and Population Policy, by Hüsnü A. Ki§ni§çi, M. D 139 Chapter I POPULATION GROWTH IN TURKEY by Figen KARADAYI, M. A. POPULATION GROWTH IN TURKEY POPULATION GROWTH IN TURKEY Figen Karadayi, M. A. Institute of Population Studies Hacettepe University During the period 1650 -1800, the devolpment of new techni- ques in agriculture, in manufacturing, in transportation and com- munication had increasingly important effects on the population growth in the west. Statistics of European countries show that in most of them the increasing rate of population growth was due to the decline in the death rate rather than to any change in the birth rate (Thompson, 1965). During the first half of the nineteenth century, in the west as a whole, the death rate fell rapidly to the lower 20ies per thou- sand, whereas the aggregate birth rate probably remained almost stationary and the rate of natural increase averaged 11-12 per thousand per year (Thompson, 1965). In the nineteenth century, while the western countries were characterized with a rapid population growth, in the Otoman Empire there was no significant increase in the population. However, the Turkish statistical information during this period was insufficient and not reliable for making comparisons with European countries. In the twentieth century, most of the western countries had reached a low level in death rates and moreover, the birth rates had also declined to such a low level that the gap between deaths and and births was diminishing at a fairly rapid speed, leading to a slower rate of population growth. The historical experience of the western countries diffused to developing countries like Turkey after a century. However, it produced even higher rates of population growth. After the establishment of the Republic in 1923, Turkish govern- ments followed a strong pronatalistic policy for many years, in order to compensate for the great loss in population during the pre- ceeding years of war. II THE POPULATION OF TURKEY Trends in the Actual Rate of Population Growth During this century, more reliable statistical information on the characteristics of population and its growth was collected. Al- though there were several population registrations during the Otto- man Empire, the actual population census on a scientific bases was conducted for the first time in 1927. This was followed by the 1935 census after which the censuses were repeated at five year intervals. In the 1927 census, the Turkish population was recorded as 13,648,000 (Table 1). As it can be observed from the table, the pop- ulation increase rate has been rather fast during this century. According to the results of the 1935 census, there was an in- crease of 2.5 million in the population as compared with the pre- vious census. During the 1927-1935 period, the actual rate of in- crease in population was 21 per thousand. However, this high rate of inci'ease was partly due to the increase in the number of immi- gration (around 200,000) to the mainland from the lands lost in the war. Secondly, it was partly due to the under-enumeration of population (around 400,000) in the previous census of, 1927 (Cillov, 1980). Thus considering two factors, the actual population increase between the two dates becomes 1.9 million instead of 2.5 million, consequently the natural rate of increase becomes 16 per thousand, somewhat lower than the actual rate of increase. However, this rate was still one of the highest rates compared to other countries. Between 1935 -1940 the Province of Hatay with its 208,000 population was added to the lands of Turkey, and at the same time 120,000 immigrants entered the country. Thus, if these factors are considered, a natural rate of increase is expected to be somewhat lower than the actual. In the period 1940 -1945, which was during the Second World War, there was a decline in the annual rate of increase, dropping from 19.6 per thousand to 10.6 per thousand. Firstly, there was no observable migration movement in this period. There were also other reasons which had depressing effects on the rate of natural increase. 12 POPULATION GROWTH IN TURKEY The main reason was the fact that the majority of the male population was enlisted. Also, due to limited economic means the number of marriages, pregnancies, and births were decreased voluntarily. Decrease in the births was also attributable to the fact that the proportion of the fertile population in the 20 - 35 age group was low because of the First World War. On the other hand, the death rates during the period were also high. Table 1 Population, and Intercensal Growth Rates According to the Censuses Actual Rate of Population Population Growth Census Year (thousands) (per thousand) 1927 13,648 21.1 1935 16,158 19.6 1940 17,821 10.6 1945 18,790 21.7 1950 20,947 27.7 1955 24,065 28.5 1960 27,755 24.6 1965 31,391 25.6 1970 35,661 ~" "" SOUTCG : Census of Population. Social and Economic Characteristics of Population. 24 Oct. 1965, State Institute of Statistics. Printine Division Publication No. 568, Ankara 1969. 13 THE POPULATION OF TURKEY During the period 1945 -1950 following the war, there was again a sharp rise in the rate of increase to 21.7 per thousand, which was due to several factors. Mainly it was affected by the increase in marriages and births after the demobilization of the male population. It is also clear that, after the wars, even the number of births in the old marriages increased. Secondly, it was due to a sharp fall in the death rate as a consequence of the improvement of health and medical services, and the increased use of antibiotics. In the period 1950 -1955, the actual rate of increase was 27.7 per thousand. This was extremely high compared to other European countries. However, if we disregard the influence of 125,000 immigrants, the natural rate of increase becomes a little lower, but is still a high rate.
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