Cities Outlook 2020 Political Gains, Economic Realities 1
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Air pollution is an urban problem To clean up the air we breath, the UK’s largest cities and towns should: Levels of pollutants NO2 and PM2.5 are higher in cities and large towns than their surrounding areas Cities Outlook 11% Clean air Roads in the UK 2020 are breaching legal limits for NO 100% 2 of monitored roads in 19 cities are ZONE 95% above the WHO of these are guidelines Cities with poor quality air Set tighter minimum in the UK’s cities for annual levels of PM2.5 should introduce emission standards for London-style burning stoves and ban Clean Air Zones domestic burning There is a South / North divide The UK Government should: and the South is worst affected Aberdeen has the lowest proportion PM2.5-related deaths Triple the size of the Adopt World Health Belfast is the city with the Clean Air Fund to Organization stronger lowest number of days with poor air quality guidelines on PM2.5 Cities in the South saw DAQI index scores of 4 or above most £660m frequently in 2018 Birmingham and Manchester emit the most NO2 and PM2.5 outside of London London has the road with the highest NO2 breach, double the legal limit, and is the biggest emitter Swansea has the highest PM2.5 of both NO2 and PM2.5 emissions per 10,000 people Give cities more powers Introduce Environmental Bournemouth is the city with and resources to Improvement Bonds the highest number of days with poor air quality clean up their air AirAir pollution pollution is is an an urban urban problem problem To clean up the air we breathe, SourcesSources of air of pollution air pollution vary varyacross across cities cities Levels of pollutants NO and PM2.5 are the UK’s largest cities and towns should: Levels of pollutants NO2 2 and PM2.5 are higherhigher in in cities cities and and large large towns towns than than their their surrounding surrounding areas areas Clean air 50%50% IndustrialIndustrial processes processes 11%11% of PM2.5of emissions PM2.5 emissionsin somein cities some contribute cities contribute RoadsRoads in in the the UK UK in cities come from more to NO emissions in cities come from more2 to NO2 emissions areare breaching breaching domesticdomestic sources, sources, than others:than others: legal limits for NO 100% legal limits for NO2 100% includingincluding wood and wood and 2 of monitored roads in Warringtonin Warrington of monitored roads coal burningcoal burning stoves stoves68% 68% 42% inin 19 19 cities cities are are 42% ZONE in Crawley of NO emissionsof NO emissions above the WHO 7% 7% in Crawley 2 2 95% above the WHO in cities is 95% guidelines in cities is ofof these these are are guidelines caused causedby by for annual levels Cities with poor quality air Set tighter minimum inin the the UK’s UK’s cities cities for annual levels road transportroad transport ofof PM2.5 PM2.5 should introduce emission standards for London-style burning stoves and ban Clean Air Zones domestic burning ThereThere is is a a South South / /North North divide divide The UK Government should: It killsIt killsthousands thousands every every year yearand affectsand affects andand the the South South is is worst worst affected affected the healththe health of many of many more more In 2017,In just 2017, one just pollutant, one pollutant, PM2.5, PM2.5, was estimatedwas estimated to have tocaused have causedover over AberdeenAberdeen hashas the the lowest lowest proportion proportion of PM2.5-relatedPM2.5-related deaths deaths Triple the size of the Adopt World Health 14,40014,400 This is inThis spite is inof spite of deaths indeaths UK cities in UK cities BelfastBelfast is theis the city city with with the the Clean Air Fund to Organization stronger the UK meetingthe UK meeting lowestlowest number number of daysof days with with poorpoor air airquality quality guidelines on PM2.5 That is anThat urban is an average urban average of of current currentlegal limits legal limits CitiesCities in thein the South South saw saw DAQI DAQI index index scoresscores of 4of or 4 aboveor above most most £660m frequently in 2018 frequently in 2018 deaths deaths BirminghamBirmingham and and Manchester Manchester 1 in1 19in 19 emitemit the the most most NO NO2 2 Rising toRising to andand PM2.5 PM2.5 outside outside of Londonof London LondonLondon has has the the road road with with the the highest NO2 breach, double the highest NO2 breach, double the deaths indeaths cities in like cities London, like London, Slough, Slough,Chatham Chatham legallegal limit, limit, and and is theis the biggest biggest emitter emitter of both NO and PM2.5 and Lutonand Luton Swansea has the highest PM2.5 of both NO2 and PM2.5 1 in1 16in 16 Swansea has the highest PM2.5 2 emissionsemissions per per 10,000 10,000 people people Give cities more powers Introduce Environmental But it isBut lower, it is at lower, at BournemouthBournemouth is theis the city city with with and resources to Improvement Bonds thethe highest highest number number of daysof days with with poor poor air airquality quality clean up their air 1 in1 33in deaths33 indeaths cities in like cities Dundee like Dundee and Aberdeen and Aberdeen Contents 01 Cities Outlook 2020 Political gains, economic realities 1 02 Holding our breath How poor air quality blights cities 7 03 City Monitor The latest data 33 Centre for Cities 01 Cities Outlook 2020 Political gains, economic realities 1 Cities Outlook 2020 Cities Outlook 2020 2 Centre for Cities Tories held 107 seats in the North and Midlands compared to Labour’s 143. Political gains, Today, 150 are blue and 111 red. Of this 43-seat increase, there is a distinctly urban flavour. Compared to 12 economic realities more in non-urban areas, the Conservatives gained 31 urban seats in the North and Midlands, of which 17 were part of larger urban areas such as Birmingham, The political imperative for investing in the North and Sheffield and Manchester. Midlands is clear from last month’s election. But the There has been no such change in the geography of the economy in the Government must work with economic realities if it is to last decade. In 2010, the south of England accounted for 53 per cent of all economic output, up from 51 per cent in 1998. By 2018 (the latest available deliver for the voters who delivered its majority. data), this had continued to widen to 54 per cent, driven by the growth of London. “I believe that talent and genius and initiative and chutzpah are evenly distributed These patterns are not sustainable either economically or politically. But the across the whole UK. But it is also clear that opportunity is not evenly distributed and economic reality means that the Government must be careful what it promises it is the job of this one-nation Conservative government to unlock talent in every so as not to create a noose for its own neck. To govern is to decide – to deliver corner of the UK because that is the right thing to do in itself and because that is on pledges requires prioritisation driven by an understanding of both the the way to release the economic potential of the whole country.” politics and the economics. Boris Johnson, Conservative Party Conference 2019 A clear set of policies should be put in place to help all areas of the country – be they central London boroughs, cities, towns or villages – to improve the The last decade was one of stagnation for the economy and of turbulence in quality of public services available to people no matter where they live. This politics. Four general elections, four prime ministers and two referendums have should be done in two ways. been set against a backdrop of public sector austerity, barely positive wage growth and poor productivity improvements. The first is toend austerity for local government in this year’s Spending Review. As Cities Outlook 20191 showed, local government is the part of The UK enters the third decade of this century with a former Mayor of London government that has by far and away been hardest hit by austerity. This as Prime Minister. He presides over a government with the largest majority in has had implications for the range and quality of services local government almost 15 years, elected on a promise to level the country up and govern as a delivers, particularly those for which it does not have a statutory obligation. To ‘one nation’ or ‘people’s government’. protect spending in social care for example, other areas such as spending on planning and cultural services have seen even larger cuts. Much has been written about how voters in towns helped secure the political ambition of a parliamentary majority. But if the Government is to achieve its The second is to make good on its election commitments to increase economic ambitions – genuinely ‘levelling up’ regions across the country – then spending on other public services, such as education, policing and the it is larger urban areas that hold the key. NHS. In doing so it can pull a lever over which it has clear control to improve the standard of living for people everywhere, including in its The election result has led to calls for the Government to reward those areas newly-won constituencies.2 that helped it win its majority with increased spending. The political imperative here is obvious. The make-up of the Conservative Government looks less southern than would ever have seemed feasible 10 years ago.