Learning the Algorithms of Power

Artificial intelligence index Learning the algorithms of power

In a research system driven by AI, nations vie for leadership. By Neil Savage

he idea of artificial intelligence (AI) — Start-ups founded on AI technologies are a systems so advanced they can mimic major part of the ecosystem, garnering more or outperform human cognition — first than $37 billion globally in investments in 2019, came to prominence in 1950, when Brit- up from $1.3 billion raised in 2010, according ish computer scientist Alan Turing pro- to the report. Tposed an ‘imitation game’ to assess whether a Revenues have also skyrocketed. The Inter- computer could fool humans into thinking they national Data Corporation (IDC), a market were communicating with another human. research company based in Framingham, Massa Soon after, researchers at Princeton University chusetts, predicts that worldwide revenues in New Jersey built MADALINE, the first artificial for the AI market will total $156.5 billion in neural network applied to a real-world prob- 2020, an increase of 12.3% over 2019. Although lem. Their system, modelled on the brain and growth in 2020 is slower than in previous years nervous system, learnt to solve a maze through due to the economic impact of the COVID- trial-and-error. 19 pandemic, the IDC expects that global Since then, the rise of AI has been enabled revenues will surpass $300 billion in 2024. by exponentially faster and more powerful As nations vie for leadership, AI research computers and large, complex data sets. Appli- output is increasing rapidly. According to our cations such as machine learning, whereby a analysis of journal publications and conference system identifies patterns in large sets of data, papers tracked by the Dimensions database, have demonstrated the potential for AI to be the global output for AI research grew from practical and profitable. just over 52,000 globally in 2000 to roughly Today, AI forms the basis of computer sys- 403,000 in 2019, representing an increase of tems handling tasks such as voice recognition more than 600%. Now the most popular spe- and translation on smartphones, piloting cialization among computer-science PhD stu- driverless cars, and controlling robots that dents in North America, AI is set to continue its automate chores in homes and factories. In steep, upward trajectory. research, AI is being used in a growing number of applications, such as processing the enor- Rising revenues mous amounts of data that underpin fields The United States has historically been the including astronomy and genomics, produc- leader in AI-related research output, having ing climate models and weather forecasts, and accumulated the highest number of publica- identifying signs of disease in medical imaging. tions over the past two decades. But China has “AI is a foundational science in the same ramped up its output in recent years. In each sense that physics is a foundational science,” year from 2016 to 2019, China produced more says Amir Husain, a computer scientist who AI-related papers than any other nation, accord- founded SparkCognition, a company in Aus- ing to Dimensions. Over this period, China’s tin, Texas, that creates AI-based analytic and output of AI-related research increased by just security systems. “A lot of people think that AI over 120%, whereas output in the US increased is a product or technology, but it’s actually an by almost 70%. In 2019, China published 102,161 enabler for almost everything we do.” AI-related papers, and the US published 74,386. Business, as a result, is booming. The 2019 India, which came in third, published 23,398. AI Index Report, published by the Stanford Publication numbers aren’t the whole story, Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intel- says Jeffrey Ding, a PhD student at the Future of ligence in California, estimates that global pri- Humanity Institute at the University of Oxford, vate investment in AI in 2019 was more than UK, who studies China’s AI strategy. In the AI US$70 billion. The US, China and Europe took Index Report, which uses citation numbers to A spectrogram of the sound of a human voice, the largest share; Israel, Singapore and Iceland measure the quality of AI papers, papers from used by voice-recognition software. were found to invest heavily in per capita terms. China were cited about 20% less than the world

average in 2019, whereas papers from the US down, while keeping quality and productiv- were cited about 40% more than average. “Just ity high. AI could reinforce this advantage by pumping out raw numbers of papers that don’t powering the next generation of automation have a lasting impact isn’t really useful,” says technologies. “Anybody that has mastery over Ding. “It’s more important to keep up with the this technology and is investing in implement- technology frontier.” ing it retains an economic lead,” says Husain. A Nature Index analysis for this supplement Institutions in Germany, such as the Fraunhofer looked at the number of AI-related articles pub- Society, Europe’s largest application-oriented lished in the 82 high-quality natural-science research organization, have been emphasizing journals tracked by the index, which primarily Industry 4.0, a national strategic initiative from concern the application of AI to research in the the German government to introduce more broad fields of chemistry, the physical sciences, digital innovation and advanced robotics into life sciences, and Earth and environmental manufacturing and supply-chain management. sciences. Between 2015 and 2019, the US was In China, the ability offered by AI systems to the leader, with the UK, Germany and China in monitor public spaces and scan Internet traffic second, third and fourth place, respectively. in an effort to glean user intentions may pro- But China has increased its output in journals vide the state with improved tools for social tracked by the index. Although it was the fourth- control, enhancing its capability for monitor- most prolific country in the index in 2015, with ing the population or censoring information. roughly half as many AI-related papers as Ger- Even in countries that don’t officially track their many, China crept up over the next three years, populaces, facial-recognition technology, such then leapt to second place in 2019, showing an as that produced by New York-based company, increase of 340%. The US, UK and Germany Clearview AI, is being used by law enforcement slightly more than doubled their output over to identify suspects. The technology has been the same period. met with deep concern by some researchers, For the near future, Ding says, the US is likely who say that biases built into its algorithms to remain the world leader in AI. “Though China could result in ethical and human rights abuses. has some exceptional universities, such as Tsin- Amid the controversy that surrounds certain ghua University, the US dominates in terms of applications of AI, some groups are highlight- maybe the top 20 universities doing AI research, ing the good it can do. In 2019, the Association and that is reflected in the quality of the papers. for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence, It’s very unlikely that China will become the sin- a scientific society in Menlo Park, California, gular innovation centre by 2030.” launched its Artificial Intelligence for the Benefit Many countries see AI as providing a compet- of Humanity award, a US$1-million prize funded itive edge, not only economically, but militar- by Squirrel AI, an education technology com- ily, says Husain. He likens the competition in AI pany based in Shanghai, China. The inaugural to the Space Race of the mid-twentieth century, winner, Regina Barzilay from the Massachusetts in which the US and the Soviet Union vied to be Institute of Technology (MIT) in Cambridge, the first to achieve milestones in space travel. Massachusetts, received the award in Septem- “The Space Race yielded contributions that ber 2020 for developing a machine-learning differentiated the American technological eco- algorithm that can examine mammograms system from all others for decades to come,” and predict which women are at a higher risk says Husain. “If a country invests heavily in this of breast cancer. Barzilay has also developed area, it will yield technologies that will form a pattern-recognition algorithm that predicts the pillar of defence capability and economic which molecules might make good candidates differentiation for the rest of the century.” for new medications. Publishing in the journal Technologies that can be developed based on Cell, Barzilay and her colleagues described how AI will indeed have both economic and military their system identified a molecule, dubbed benefit, says Daniel Araya, a policy analyst at halicin, as a potentially potent new antibiotic the Center for International Governance Inno- (J. M. Stokes et al. Cell 180, 688–702; 2020). vation, a think tank in Ontario, Canada. “We’re When the molecule was synthesized and tested, talking new weapons, data-driven innovation it was found to kill antibiotic-resistant bacteria. for industry and automation, and redesigning Barzilay continues to work on halicin and hopes how our society works from the ground up.” to progress it to clinical trials. Husain points to Germany, which maintains a strong economy that relies on exports of Money to spend products such as machine parts and automo- With an eye to the potential benefits of AI-based

biles, even though lower-income countries can technologies, the US National Science Founda- IMAGES SMITH COLLECTION/GADO/GETTY A spectrogram of the sound of a human voice, provide low-wage labour for manufacturing. tion (NSF) announced in August 2020 that it is used by voice-recognition software. Germany has been able to compete by using establishing five new institutes focused on dif- automation to keep manufacturing costs ferent topics, each led by a different university,

Artificial intelligence index and each to receive $20 million over five years. T T One, led by the University of Oklahoma in Nor- The ten institutions with the greatest number of AI-related publications across all fields in the Dimensions man, will use AI systems to improve climate database. The dominance of Chinese institutions in this list is in striking contrast to the corresponding list for the Nature Index, where Western institutions dominate in the application of AI to the natural sciences. forecasting accuracy. Another, at the University of Texas at Austin, will focus on the next generation of machine-learning algorithms. A third, led by the University of Colorado Boulder, will Tsinghua University apply AI technologies to teaching and learn- University of Chinese ing. The fourth, headed by the University of Academy of Sciences Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, will explore the Shanghai Jiao Tong University discovery and synthesis of new materials and drugs using AI systems. And a fifth, led by MIT, Beihang University will investigate how AI can improve research in fundamental physics. The NSF has put out a Zhejiang University call for proposals for eight more AI institutes, which it plans to announce next year. “We have Harbin Institute of Technology a long history of supporting basic research in Nanyang Technological University artificial intelligence,” says Erwin Gianchandani, the NSF’s deputy assistant director for com- University of Electronic Science and Technology of China puter and information science and engineering. Articles In addition, the US Department of Agricul- Stanford University ture’s National Institute of Food and Agricul- Proceedings ture has committed to funding another two Massachusetts Institute of Technology Total institutes each with $20 million over five years to apply AI to questions of crop yield, pest 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 resistance and food distribution. Number of publications, 2015–19 Access to massive data sets on which to train machine-learning systems is one advantage T TT that both the US and China have, says Araya. The five leading locations for AI-related output in the Nature Index (left) and Dimensions (right). In both Europe, on the other hand, has stringent data databases, China achieved the fastest growth in output, followed by the UK in Dimensions, and the US in the Nature Index. India is the 3rd most productive location for AI research across all fields in the Dimensions laws, which protect people’s privacy, but limit database, but appears at 20th position for AI-related natural-sciences research in the Nature Index. its resources for training AI algorithms. “So, it seems unlikely that Europe will produce very China United States India Germany United Kingdom France sophisticated AI as a consequence,” he says.

“China is at the opposite end of the spectrum, 2,000 120,000 where it has few data protections, and huge access to varied and diverse pieces of data.” 100,000 The NSF doesn’t make decisions based on global competition, says Rebecca Keiser, the 1,500 organization’s first chief of research security 80,000 strategy and policy. Her position is designed to safeguard the security of federally funded 1,000 60,000 research, while promoting international col- Share laborations. “We think of it more in terms of the 40,000 impact that our funding is going to have, rather 500 Number of publications than from a nation perspective. The fact that it 20,000 also contributes to US global science leadership is fabulous,” says Keiser. As for competing against China in AI, she says, “We don’t really 0 0

know how much, and where, they’re investing, 2015 2019 2015 2019 HTTPS://WWW.DIMENSIONS.AI SCIENCE DIGITAL BY PROVIDED SYSTEM INFORMATION RESEARCH INTER-LINKED AN DIMENSIONS, FROM SOURCED USED WAS INDEX; DATA NATURE SOURCE: so it’s hard to compete against that.” With funding from other major US agencies, its Horizon 2020 programme, says public and Countries will probably make advances by using including the Defense Advanced Research Pro- private investment in AI should reach €20 bil- AI in areas where they already have expertise, jects Agency and National Institutes of Health, lion (US$23 billion) across Europe by the end says Ding, such as automation in Germany or the US government expected to spend almost of 2020. Even with other countries placing robotics in Japan. Having so many researchers $5 billion on unclassified AI research in 2020. emphasis on AI research, including Israel, around the globe tackling all aspects of AI should Other countries are investing, too. The UK’s Japan, Singapore and Australia, the race comes advance the whole field, says Keiser. “It’s always Engineering and Physical Sciences Research down to China versus the US, Araya says. good to have a bit of healthy competition.” Council gave out nearly £160 million (US$212 The refinement of AI systems is driven not million) in 2020. The European Commission, simply by academic questions, but by applying Neil Savage is a science writer based in which has been supporting research through the systems’ intelligence to practical problems. Lowell, Massachusetts.