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Dynamics of Non-State Actor Balancing In BALANCE OF POWER THEORY MEETS AL QAEDA: DYNAMICS OF NON-STATE ACTOR BALANCING IN POSTINTERNATIONAL POLITICS A Master’s Thesis by AYTAÇ DENK Department of International Relations Bilkent University Ankara July 2008 To my family “BALANCE OF POWER THEORY MEETS AL QAEDA: DYNAMICS OF NON-STATE ACTOR BALANCING IN POSTINTERNATIONAL POLITICS” The Institute of Economics and Social Sciences of Bilkent University by AYTAÇ DENK In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of MASTER OF ARTS in THE DEPARTMENT OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS BĐLKENT UNIVERSITY ANKARA July 2008 I certify that I have read this thesis and have found that it is fully adequate, in scope and in quality, as a thesis for the degree of Master of Arts in International Relations. --------------------------------- Assoc. Prof. Ersel Aydınlı Supervisor I certify that I have read this thesis and have found that it is fully adequate, in scope and in quality, as a thesis for the degree of Master of Arts in International Relations. --------------------------------- Asst. Prof. Nil Seda Şatana Examining Committee Member I certify that I have read this thesis and have found that it is fully adequate, in scope and in quality, as a thesis for the degree of Master of Arts in International Relations. --------------------------------- Asst. Prof. Lerna Yanık Examining Committee Member Approval of the Institute of Economics and Social Sciences --------------------------------- Prof. Dr. Erdal Erel Director ABSTRACT BALANCE OF POWER THEORY MEETS AL QAEDA: DYNAMICS OF NON-STATE ACTOR BALANCING IN POSTINTERNATIONAL POLITICS Denk, Aytaç M.A., Department of International Relations Supervisor: Assoc. Prof. Ersel Aydınlı July 2008 The bulk of studies on the balance of power, which constitutes balance of power theory, suggest that only states are involved in balance of power dynamics. This thesis maintains that exclusion of non-state actors (NSAs) from balance of power dynamics constitutes a significant gap in balance of power theory. This gap originates from a failure to notice fundamental changes in the structure of, and actorness in, world politics. As a result of these macro level and micro level changes, NSAs became both motivated and capable of balancing against states. This thesis evaluates Al Qaeda’s challenge against the United States as a case study of balancing behavior. A close examination of its discourse reveals that Al Qaeda is motivated to balance against America while mechanisms that it uses demonstrate that the organization is capable of engaging in such balancing. This balancing behavior has not only undermined American power but also appears to be playing a role in global power distribution dynamics in world politics. This thesis is, in short, an attempt to fill the theoretical and empirical gap that exists in balance of power theory. It concludes that the full potential of balance of power theory can be realized only by extending its boundaries to cover the postinternational world structure and thus opening it up to NSAs. Keywords: The Balance of Power, Balancing, Postinternational, State-centric World, Multi-centric World, Non-State Actor, Al Qaeda iii ÖZET GÜÇ DENGESĐ TEORĐSĐ EL KAĐDE’YLE KARŞI KARŞIYA: DEVLET-DIŞI AKTÖR DENGELEMESĐNĐN POSTENTERNASYONAL SĐYASETTEKĐ DĐNAMĐKLERĐ Denk, Aytaç M.A., Uluslararası Đlişkiler Bölümü Danışman: Doç. Dr. Ersel Aydınlı Temmuz 2008 Güç dengesi teorisini oluşturan çalışmaların çoğu güç dengesi dinamiklerinin sadece devletleri kapsadığını öne sürmektedir. Bu tez, devlet-dışı aktörlerin güç dengesinden hariç tutulmasının güç dengesi teorisinde önemli bir boşluk teşkil ettiğini iddia etmektedir. Bu boşluk, dünya siyasetinin yapısındaki ve dünya siyaseti içindeki aktörlükteki temel değişimleri farkedememekten kaynaklanmaktadır. Makro ve mikro düzeydeki bu değişimler sonucu, devlet-dışı aktörler devletleri dengelemek için hem güdülenmiş hem de yetkin hale gelmişlerdir. Bu tez El Kaide’nin Amerika Birleşik Devletleri’ne karşı olan mücadelesini dengeleme davranışını örnekleyen bir olay incelemesi kapsamında değerlendirmektedir. El Kaide’nin söyleminin yakın plan incelemesi onun Amerika’yı dengelemek için güdülendiğini gösterirken, kullandığı mekanizmalar örgütün dengelemeye girişmekte yetkin olduğunu ispat etmektedir. Bu dengeleme hareketi sadece Amerika’nın gücünü zayıflatmamakta aynı zamanda dünya siyasetindeki küresel güç dağılımı dinamiklerinde de rol oynamaktadır. Kısaca, bu tez güç dengesi teorisindeki teorik ve empirik boşluğu doldurmaya yönelik bir çabanın ürünüdür. Güç dengesi teorisinin tam potansiyelinin gerçekleşmesinin ancak teori sınırlarının genişleyerek postenternasyonal dünya yapısını kapsaması ve teorinin devlet-dışı aktörlere açılmasıyla mümkün olacağı neticesine varmaktadır. Anahtar Kelimeler: Güç Dengesi, Dengeleme, Postenternasyonal, Devlet- merkezli Dünya, Çok-merkezli Dünya, Devlet-dışı Aktör, El Kaide iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I cannot express enough gratitude to my supervisor Assoc. Prof. Ersel Aydınlı. This study would not have materialized without his constant guidance and enthusiastic support. His enormous expertise and “the way his mind works” will always be an inspiration for me. More importantly, getting to know him was an invaluable life experience. How he looks at life has made a huge impact on the way I look at life. My heartfelt thanks goes to Asst. Prof. Nil Şatana for sharing her research insight, always being the first person to offer help whenever I ran into a problem, and having an unwavering confidence in me. Her input to this thesis is immeasurable. I would also like to thank Assist. Prof. Lerna Yanık for serving on my thesis committee. I am greatly indebted to Assoc. Prof. Ayşegül Kibaroğlu and Assoc. Prof. Mustafa Kibaroğlu for their endless support and encouragement throughout the course of my undergraduate and graduate studies. I also owe my thanks to Prof. Meliha Altunışık, Assoc. Prof. Fatih Tayfur, Assist. Prof. Julie Mathews Aydınlı, Assist. Prof. Paul Williams, Ms. Müge Keller, and Ms. Pınar Kılıçhan Şener for their continuous support and guidance. I would like to thank the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TÜBĐTAK) for funding this study. Finally, my deepest gratitude goes to my family for their lifelong love and support. This thesis is dedicated to my best friend, my brother Erman Denk; and to my idols in life, my parents Mehbare Denk and Ayhan Denk who have devoted themselves to their sons. All my endeavors are – and will be – the fruits of their devotion to me. v TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT….............................................................................................................iii ÖZET…………............................................................................................................ iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .......................................................................................... v TABLE OF CONTENTS............................................................................................. vi LIST OF TABLES ......................................................................................................xii LIST OF FIGURES....................................................................................................xiii CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION ................................................................................... 1 CHAPTER II ‘THE BALANCE OF POWER’ AND ‘BALANCING’ IN THE THEORY AND PRACTICE OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS.. 8 2.1. Understanding the Balance of Power ................................................................. 9 2.1.1. Defining the Balance of Power ................................................................... 9 2.1.2. The Balancer ............................................................................................. 17 2.1.3. The Mechanics of Balances and Balancing: An Automatic Process?....... 18 2.2. Choosing to Balance or Not: Motivational Factors.......................................... 21 2.2.1. Why Do States Balance?........................................................................... 21 2.2.1.1. Balancing Against Power................................................................... 21 2.2.1.2. Balancing against Threat.................................................................... 22 vi 2.2.2. Why Do States Not Balance?.................................................................... 23 2.2.2.1. Seeking More Profits and Fewer Costs.............................................. 23 2.2.2.2. Intrastate Problems............................................................................. 25 2.2.2.3. Threat Perceptions.............................................................................. 26 2.2.2.4. Power Considerations......................................................................... 27 2.2.3. Balancing as a Non-Statist Activity .......................................................... 28 2.2.4. Motivational Factors in the case of NSAs................................................. 29 2.3. Balancing Types ............................................................................................... 32 2.3.1. Hard Balancing.......................................................................................... 32 2.3.2. Soft Balancing........................................................................................... 34 2.3.3. Asymmetric Balancing.............................................................................. 38 2.3.4. Asymmetric Balancing in the Context of Balance of Power Theory........ 39 2.4.
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