Theoretical Frames on Pathways to Violent Radicalization
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Theoretical Frames on Pathways to Violent Radicalization Understanding the Evolution of Ideas and Behaviors, How They Interact and How They Describe Pathways to Violence in Marginalized Diaspora August 2009 TABLE OF CONTENTS ARTIS Research & Risk Modeling .. 3 Project Team . 4 Executive Summary (Scott Atran and Richard Davis) ... .. 5 Hofstad Case Study & The Blob Theory (Marc Sageman)............................................ ... 13 Madrid Case Study (Scott Atran with Marc Sageman) 30 Hebron Case Study (Scott Atran).................................................................................. ... 59 Toward a Social-Cognitive Theory of Radicalization (Jeremy Ginges) ... 74 Appendix A: Hofstad . 82 Appendix B: Madrid . 100 Appendix C: Hebron . 111 2 ARTIS RESEARCH & RISK MODELING ARTIS is a scientific research group institute dedicated to improving understanding of collective political and cultural violence and risk assessment and modeling through field-based research. At ARTIS, we believe that multidisciplinary field research is an essential ingredient to scientific research on human cognition and behavior. Consequently, we join together top scientists, universities and research institutions with policy makers and experts so that multidisciplinary field research can better enhance scientific understanding of political and cultural violence. 3 PROJECT TEAM Sponsor: Office of Naval Research Program Officer: Harold Hawkins Project Director: Richard Davis Principal Investigator: Scott Atran Co-Principal Investigator: Marc Sageman Investigator: Rogier Rijpkema Consultant: Jeremy Ginges Consultant: Dominick Wright 4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Theoretical Summary (Concluding Hypothesis): As the result of our case studies, we hypothesize that the development of terrorist networks, plots and attacks resembles more the development of a complex system, with inherently chaotic and unpredictable characteristics, which can nevertheless be evaluated for probabilistic and path-dependent developments. Much like water that becomes heated to boiling, or even more like a soup with locally different densities and viscosities, it may be impossible in principle to precisely predict where the rising cones and bubbles will first appear; however, likely “neighborhoods” and path-dependent developments can be projected. Understanding the dynamic interaction of interpersonal behaviors, social emotions (e.g., moral outrage) and collectively distributed cognitions (including causal and moral construals of the world )is critical to projecting path-dependent developments. The growth and development of terrorist networks is largely a decentralized and evolutionary process, based on contingent adaptations to unpredictable events and improbable opportunities, more the result of localized tinkering (of fragmentary connections between semi- autonomous parts) than intelligent design (hierarchical command and control). As in any natural evolutionary process, individual variation and environmental context are the creative and critical determinants of future directions and paths. To ignore or essentialistically abstract away from variation and context is to entirely miss the character of natural group formation and development along with better chances for intervention and prevention of enemy attacks from the bottom up rather than the top down. Empirical Summary (Case Studies Content): Distinguishing networks of violent extremists from mere supporters. Many millions of people express sympathy with Al Qaeda or other forms of violent political expression that support terrorism, but relatively few willingly use violence. From a 2001ņ2007 survey of over 35 predominantly Moslem nations (with 50,000 interviews randomly chosen to represent about 90 percent of the Muslim world), a Gallup study projected that 7 percent of the worlds 1.3 billion Muslims (some 90 million people) felt that the 9/11 attacks were completely justified. If one includes Muslims who considered the attacks largely justified, their ranks almost double. And adding those who deemed the attacks "somewhat justified" boosts the number to 37 percent (which implies hundreds of millions of Muslims).1 But of the many millions who express support for violence against the out-group there only some thousands who show willingness to actually commit violence. Among Palestinians, although surveys conducted during the Second Intifada show that upwards of 80 percent of the population has supported suicide bombing,2 only a small percentage have been willing to follow through 1 J. Esposito, D. Morehead (2008) Who speaks for Islam? What a billion Muslims really think. Gallup Press. 2 See polls by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research at http://www.pcpsr.org/. 5 with such extreme action (for example, prior experiments and surveys by our research team indicate that most Palestinians who feel humiliation would not directly engage in violence, whereas those who feel moral outrage at the humiliation of others might).3 Our case studies indicate that those who do move on to violence, usually emerge in small groups of action-oriented friends. They often come from the same neighborhood and interact during activities such as soccer or extracurricular study groups. These young people self-mobilize to the tune of a simple, superficial, but broadly appealing takfiri message of withdrawal from impure mainstream society and of a need for violent action to cleanse it. It is a surprisingly flat, but fluid message pre-adapted to any new event in the world, which is readily shared by young people. Most of these young people are born again in their late teens and early twenties and have little knowledge of religion beyond the fact that they consider themselves true Muslims who must fight enemies near and far to defend their friends and the faith that makes their friendship meaningful and enduring. One telltale sign of radicalization in the move is when members of a neighborhood mosque or cultural center (or just an informal discussion group that meets at a bookstore or at picnics) gel into a militant faction that leaves, voluntarily or involuntarily. This is what happened, for example, when Ali al-Timimi and his group of paintball buddies were ejected from the Dar al- Arqam Cultural Center in Falls Church, Virginia after praising the 9/11 attack (12 members of the group were later convicted for aiding Lashkar-e-Taiba, a Pakistani group sympathetic to Al Qaeda), or when the soccer-playing Salafi Imam at the M-30 mosque in Madrid expelled Serhane Fakhet, El Tunecino, and friends (who continued to self-radicalize, playing soccer and picnicking together, in the lead up to the Madrid train bombings, see The Madrid Case). Marc Sageman has generalized this move from low-level community activism to high-stakes militancy in a counter-cultural cause within the framework of a Blob to BoG theory of radicalization (see The Hofstad Case). Soccer, paintball, camping, hiking, rafting, body building, martial arts training and other forms of physically stimulating and intimate group action create a bunch of buddies, which becomes a band of brothers in a glorious cause. It usually suffices that a few (usually at least two) of these action buddies come to believe in the cause, truly and uncompromisingly, for the rest to follow even unto death. Humans, like all primates, need to socially organize, lead and be led; however, notions of charismatic leaders going out or sending recruiters to brainwash unwitting minds into joining well-structured organizations with command and control is exaggerated. 3 J. Ginges, S. Atran (2008) Humiliation and the inertia effect: Implications for understanding violence and compromise in intractable intergroup conflicts. Journal of Cognition and Culture 8:281-294. Takfiris would excommunicate (takfir) fellow Muslims as lackeys of the infidel (kafir) and de facto apostates, and so justify killing them along with the infidels to save the Muslim community from conquest and corruption. Takfiri doctrine represents an extreme form of Salafism, and modern Salafism is historically related to Wahabism. But it is important to understand that Wahabis are not Takfiris, and neither are most Salafis. Just as Calvinism rejects opposition to the (Protestant) state, so a central tenet of Wahabism is loyalty to the (Saudi) State and rejection of violence against fellow (Sunni) Muslims. Nearly all Saudis are also Salafis, as are many if not most Egyptians. But for the most part, they reject Takfiri doctrine and often deeply oppose it (much as most Christian fundamentalists reject Christian supremacist doctrine). Unlike Hofstad, Madrid and other Al Qaeda wannabes, few Hamas militants express support Takfiri doctrine. 6 For the most part, the new wave of terrorism that expresses allegiance to Al Qaeda tends to be poorer, less educated and more marginal than the old Qaeda or its remnants. It relies to a greater extent for financing and personnel on pre-existing petty criminal networks because large-scale financing is easily tracked.. In his book Leaderless Jihad,4 Sageman finds that more recent formations of terrorist networks resemble previous waves insofar as they are built up around friendship and kinship; however, violent extremists today are more marginal relative to surrounding society. This new wave pattern of increasingly marginality and born-again religion is reflected in European and North African groups that express allegiance to Al Qaeda, as well as foreign fighters in Iraq (41 percent from Saudi Arabia and 39 percent from