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Assessing Trends and Vulnerabilities in the Mutualism Between Whitebark

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Assessing Trends and Vulnerabilities in the Mutualism Between Whitebark PLOS ONE RESEARCH ARTICLE Assessing trends and vulnerabilities in the mutualism between whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) and Clark's nutcracker (Nucifraga columbiana) in national parks of the Sierra- Cascade region 1 2 2 3 Chris RayID *, Regina M. RochefortID , Jason I. Ransom , Jonathan C. B. Nesmith , Sylvia a1111111111 A. Haultain3, Taza D. Schaming4, John R. Boetsch5, Mandy L. Holmgren1, Robert a1111111111 L. Wilkerson1, Rodney B. Siegel1 a1111111111 a1111111111 1 The Institute for Bird Populations, Petaluma, California, United States of America, 2 North Cascades National Park Service Complex, Sedro-Woolley, Washington, United States of America, 3 National Park a1111111111 Service, Sierra Nevada Network, Three Rivers, California, United States of America, 4 Northern Rockies Conservation Cooperative, Jackson, Wyoming, United States of America, 5 National Park Service, North Coast and Cascades Network, Port Angeles, Washington, United States of America * [email protected] OPEN ACCESS Citation: Ray C, Rochefort RM, Ransom JI, Nesmith JCB, Haultain SA, Schaming TD, et al. Abstract (2020) Assessing trends and vulnerabilities in the mutualism between whitebark pine (Pinus Dispersal of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis Engelm.), a keystone species of many high- albicaulis) and Clark's nutcracker (Nucifraga elevation ecosystems in western North America, depends on Clark's nutcracker (Nucifraga columbiana) in national parks of the Sierra- columbiana Wilson), a seed-caching bird with an affinity for whitebark seeds. To the extent Cascade region. PLoS ONE 15(10): e0227161. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0227161 that this dependence is mutual, declines in whitebark seed production could cause declines in nutcracker abundance. Whitebark pine is in decline across much of its range due to inter- Editor: Teresa MoraÂn-LoÂpez, INIBIOMA-CONICET, ARGENTINA acting stressors, including the non-native pathogen white pine blister rust (Cronartium ribi- cola J. C. Fisch.). We used avian point-count data and tree surveys from four national park Received: December 11, 2019 units to investigate whether trends in whitebark pine can explain trends in Clark's nut- Accepted: September 1, 2020 cracker. Spatial trends were modeled using recent data from two parks, while temporal Published: October 14, 2020 trends were modeled using longer time-series of nutcracker and whitebark data from two Peer Review History: PLOS recognizes the additional parks. To assess the potential dependence of nutcrackers on whitebark, we benefits of transparency in the peer review linked a model of nutcracker density (accounting for detection probability) with a model of process; therefore, we enable the publication of whitebark trends, using a Bayesian framework to translate uncertainty in whitebark metrics all of the content of peer review and author responses alongside final, published articles. The to uncertainty in nutcracker density. In Mount Rainier National Park, temporal models editorial history of this article is available here: showed dramatic declines in nutcracker density concurrent with significant increases in https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0227161 whitebark crown mortality and trees infected with white pine blister rust. However, nutcrack- Copyright: This is an open access article, free of all ers did not trend with whitebark metrics in North Cascades National Park Service Complex. copyright, and may be freely reproduced, In spatial models of data from Yosemite National Park and Sequoia-Kings Canyon National distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or Park, nutcracker density varied not only with local cover of whitebark but also with elevation otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative and, in Sequoia-Kings Canyon, with cover of another species of white pine. Our results add Commons CC0 public domain dedication. support for the hypothesis that the mutualism between whitebark pine and Clark's Data Availability Statement: Bird and tree data used in this analysis are available through the PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0227161 October 14, 2020 1 / 25 PLOS ONE Trends in the whitebark pine-Clark's nutcracker mutualism National Park Service Data Store at https://irma. nutcracker is vulnerable to disruption by blister rust, and our approach integrates data nps.gov/DataStore/Reference/Profile/2277917 (for across monitoring programs to explore trends in species interactions. NCCN parks data) and at https://irma.nps.gov/ DataStore/Reference/Profile/2278594 (for SIEN parks data). Funding: This analysis was funded by the National Park Service Inventory & Monitoring Division Introduction (www.nps.gov/im) and North Coast and Cascades Research Learning Center (www.nps.gov/rlc/ Mutualism involves beneficial interactions among species in a partnership, creating the poten- northcoastcascades), and was conducted under tial for feedback processes that result in mutual population growth or decline [1, 2]. Even California Cooperative Ecosystem Studies Unit when a mutualism is facultative (not obligatory) for one or more species in a partnership, pop- Agreement P17AC01613 with The Institute for Bird ulation decline in one partner can lead to decline in another [3]. Accordingly, many species Populations (CR, MLH, RLW, RBS). Additional and in-kind support was provided by Mount Rainier involved in mutualistic interactions are vulnerable to novel stressors, such as climate change National Park, North Cascades National Park or introduced pathogens, through the impact of those stressors on partner species, in addition Service Complex, Olympic National Park, Sequoia to any direct impacts they might experience [4]. For example, ant-aphid mutualisms in which and Kings Canyon National Parks and Yosemite there are indirect, ant-mediated effects of climate on aphid population growth and behavior, National Park. This research was sponsored by the can make ant-dependent aphids relatively sensitive to climate change [5]. Other examples of National Park Service, personnel of which were co- stress exacerbated by mutualism include plant-animal mutualisms in Hawaii, where habitat authors who collaborated on elements of the study design related to data collection and analysis, destruction contributed to the loss of bird species and associated population declines in many decision to publish and preparation of the bird-pollinated plants [6]; and drought-stressed Ficus species in Borneo that experienced pro- manuscript. longed shifts in their reproductive phenology, leading to local extinction of the wasp that polli- Competing interests: The authors have declared nated their figs [7]. The potential for a stressor to affect multiple species in a mutualism should that no competing interests exist. scale with its potential to affect each species directly, indirectly through the mutualism, or both. Furthermore, the strength of a stressor's indirect effects should help reveal patterns of dependence in the mutualism. Here, we explore the dependence of a facultative mutualist on its obligate partner, by modeling the indirect effect of a pathogen. Specifically, we examine whether trends in Clark's nutcracker (Nucifraga columbiana Wilson), a seed-caching bird spe- cies, can be explained by pathogen-mediated trends in whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis Engelm.), a tree that depends on Clark's nutcracker for seed dispersal and germination [8±11]. Whitebark pine (hereafter, whitebark) is a keystone species in high-elevation areas of west- ern North America, influencing biodiversity, ecosystem structure, and hydrologic cycling [12, 13]. Over the past century, precipitous and widespread declines in whitebark survival and recruitment have been documented across much of the species' range [14±18]. Threats to whitebark include direct and interactive effects of attacks by an exotic fungal pathogen and a native insect pest, as well as climate change and fire exclusion [19]. White pine blister rust (hereafter, blister rust) is caused by a fungal pathogen (Cronartium ribicola J. C. Fisch) that was first recorded in North America in 1910 [20, 21]. Blister rust girdles the branches and boles of five-needle white pines, reducing cone production and causing up to 90% mortality in some parts of the whitebark range [21±23]. Additional whitebark mortality caused by out- breaks of the native mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosa Hopkins) is facilitated by an increase in growing degree days [24, 25]. In 2004 alone, nearly 720,000 whitebark pines were killed by mountain pine beetles in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem [26]. Climate change might threaten whitebark directly through effects on growth, mortality and regeneration, as well as indirectly through increasing frequency, intensity and duration of impacts by blister rust, mountain pine beetle, and fire [27±29]. Projected effects of climate are complicated by the fact that whitebark benefits from early successional conditions [19]Ðcon- ditions that would spread with increasing wildfire. On the other hand, in much of the species range, decades of fire exclusion have facilitated succession of whitebark communities by more shade-tolerant species, and have increased fuel accumulation, leading to larger and more severe fires that kill more trees (including potentially rust-resistant trees that have eluded rust- PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0227161 October 14, 2020 2 / 25 PLOS ONE Trends in the whitebark pine-Clark's nutcracker mutualism mediated mortality) [14]. Given
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