The South East - Introduction

20 20 One Powerhouse Towards a spatial blueprint South East Important Note from Authors

You will have noticed that this report is dated 2020.

The delay in publishing has been brought about by the Coronavirus lockdowns.

Any issues that might necessitate allusion to Coronavirus do not, we feel, have a profound impact on the factors that underpin the approach, findings, plans or recommendations contained in our reports.

Indeed, our view is that the likely negative effects of the lockdowns and social distancing, combined with the cross-party aspirations for levelling up, make our draft Spatial Plans even more relevant as a very practical and transparent road map to delivering an equitable, sustainable future for the Regions of England - in the shortest possible time.

One Powerhouse Consortium Board and RSA January 2021

About the One About the RSA Powerhouse Consortium

The One Powerhouse The RSA (Royal Society Consortium, supported by for the encouragement The Sir Hugh and Lady Sykes of Arts Manufactures and Charitable Trust, believes that a Commerce) believes in a substantial part of the problem world where everyone is able of regional inequality can be to participate in creating a solved not just by money, but better future. Through our by the transformative potential ideas, research and a 30,000 of spatial planning. Working strong Fellowship we are a with recognised leaders in global community of proactive problem solvers. We unite people and ideas to resolve the creating draft spatial plans challenges of our time. for the ‘mega regions’ of England to sit alongside the existing spatial plans for Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

AECOM are a global network of experts working with clients, communities and colleagues to develop and implement innovative solutions to the world’s most complex challenges. As an integrated multi-disciplinary consultancy, AECOM Town Planning works alongside technical experts in economics, transport, utility infrastructure, environmental resilience and data analytics to ensure a holistic approach to spatial planning. © 2019 AECOM Limited. All Rights Reserved. This document has been prepared by AECOM Limited (“AECOM”) for sole use of our client (the “Client”) in accordance with generally accepted consultancy principles, the budget for fees and the terms of reference agreed between AECOM and the Client. Any information provided by third parties and referred to herein has not been checked document. No third party may rely upon this document without the prior and express written agreement of AECOM. CONTENTS

Introduction p.06 One Powerhouse Consortium 06

AECOM 08

Approach 10

Regional Blueprint 12

Part I: Context p.14 Assumptions about the Future 16

Importance of Spatial Planning 18

Spatial Relationships 20

Economic Context 22

Growth Context 25 Part II: Evidence Base p.28 Prosperity & Innovation 30

Placemaking 32

Resilience 34

Infrastructure 36

Connectivity 38

Challenges to Opportunities 40 Part III: Regional Blueprint p.42 The Regional Blueprints 44

Prosperity & Innovation 46

Connectivity 50

Housing Delivery 54

Levelling the Playing Field 60

Climate Change & Resilience 64

Institutional Framework 68

Infrastructure Programme 74

Megaregion Priorities 82

3 TOWARDS A SPATIAL

BLUEPRINTThis ‘spatial blueprint’ for London and The One Powerhouse Consortium For London and the wider south east the wider South East of England prepared working with the Royal Society of Arts it is clear that we need a broader, more by AECOM is one of a series of plans has supported and coordinated this work joined-up approach to decisions over which contribute to a national picture and a series of draft spatial ‘blueprints’ housing and new community growth, of the challenges and opportunities of for the megaregions of England, which how and where to invest in transport balanced growth in the United Kingdom. when combined with the spatial plans infrastructure, where to focus on long- for the devolved nations gives a picture term economic opportunity and also This ‘blueprint’ brings together a of the challenges and opportunities for target social and economic inequalities, multi-discipline analysis of the drivers the United Kingdom that has not been and also how to tackle environmental of economic growth and prosperity; set out before. The ambitions of the challenges – all of which cannot be the current picture of inequality; One Powerhouse Consortium, aligned resolved by the capital without fully existing infrastructure investment and with that of the UK2070 Commission, are recognising the interdependencies with connectivity; addressing the housing described on the following pages and the wider city region. challenge; and also building a resilient sets out the challenges. and sustainable future. It projects On the national scale, this regional forward to look at where we may The aim of preparing these draft blueprint – which focuses on the most be in 2070 and proposes an outline ‘blueprints’ is to demonstrate the economically prosperous part of the programme of long term coordinated potential of regional spatial planning country – when taken with the other investment and action which would and show how it could lead to better regional plans, sets the context for a lead to more balanced and sustainable decision-making and prioritisation of national conversation about the long growth across this wide region. investment across the country. term priorities for the United Kingdom.

The blueprint is a call for a reawakening of the role for regional and national spatial planning as an effective tool to assess and understand how to tackle inequality, rise to the challenge of climate change and where to focus investment to have the greatest impact.

4 Priorities to Government Embrace the Fourth Industrial This “blueprint” provides a starting Revolution point that synthesises the key issues 01 at a megaregional scale and provides a vehicle to begin a conversation on the benefits of spatial planning for the Invest in the Priority Economic megaregion - and the UK more widely. 02 Clusters The Regional Blueprint for London and the Wider South East sets out 10 priorities. Deliver Planned & Proposed 03 Transport Invest in Urban Integrated 04 Transport Systems Transform how we Live 05 Enable Investment in Utility 06 Infrastructure Designation of Areas of Biodiversity 07 and Environmental Net Gain Pursue a Flexible Green 08 Belt Policy Tackle the Housing Crisis 09 Deliver a Regional Spatial Plan 10 for the megaregion

5 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Introduction

ONE POWERHOUSE

CONSORTIUM. Spatially-sensitive policy is not A Vision for Britain. Regional Inequality in simply a matter of social justice Planned. the UK and political prudence. Regional prosperity drives national prosperity The One Powerhouse Consortium, Today, just under half of the UK and so regional imbalance constrains supported by The Sir Hugh and Lady population live in regions with a overall performance. Accommodating Ruby Sykes Charitable Trust, believes comparable productivity to the poorer agglomeration in some places while that a substantial part of the problem parts of former East Germany – and servicing mounting welfare bills in others of regional inequality in the UK can comparable living standards are worse. damages the UK’s fiscal balance and be solved not just by money, but by According to the recent UK2070 exacerbates the underlying problem. the transformative potential of spatial Commission, the UK today is more planning. intraregionally unequal than Germany was in 1995. Since reunification, Germany The Value of Place and Spatial planning is the ‘where’ has since pulled itself together, through Scale of decisions. It looks at a defined decisive investment programmes geographical area and makes an underpinned by visionary spatial There is evidence that spatial planning assessment of everything contained in planning. During a similar period the UK, has already begun to deliver results in the that area – towns, cities, housing, schools, on the other hand, has fragmented. UK. We are not alone in recognising that universities, roads, rails, airports, offices, the two ‘regional economies’ that have factories, hospitals, energy sources, The nature and extent of the so-called the highest levels of productivity are museums, parks and leisure activities ‘North-South’ divide can be presented those where there are coherent regional - and makes a plan to develop those in many forms. Maps showing economic economic plans: London and Scotland. assets for the benefit of the people who productivity, educational attainment and live in that region, now and for the future. poor health all present sharp disparities Indeed, in England, there is good between regions and nations. Current work taking place through some Local It is well understood that countries forecasts suggest the situation will only Enterprise Partnerships (LEPs) and and regions around the world have used get worse and that in fact the economy of Combined Authorities and Mayoralties spatial planning to focus political will, London and the South East is ‘decoupling’ but not all. In strategic planning and economic activity and social reform to from the rest of the UK (McCann 2016). investment terms, these tend to be great effect. Notable examples include The repercussions are stark and grow rather small and the outcome is rather Germany’s Rhine-Ruhr, Holland’s more evident all the time. patchwork. Randstad and New York City’s Regional Plan Association. While bemoaning the growth of regional inequality in the country, successive governments have extolled the virtues of spatially blind investment in the best performing sectors and projects. The adherence to current appraisal mechanisms, codified in the Treasury’s Green Book, has been to channel investment to the most prosperous places, reinforcing geographical divides.

6 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Introduction

Our Plan Draft Blueprints

The clear ‘gap’ in terms of economic The vision of the One Powerhouse planning in the UK, therefore, is at the Consortium has been to prepare a level of the English regions. Any spatial series of draft spatial blueprints that will strategy needs to bring together the demonstrate the potential of regional best local industrial strategies and planning in action and show how it could plans within a wider regional strategy lead to better decision-making and framework. The foundations of how this prioritisation of investment across the can be achieved are already present. The country. Our definition of a blueprint is that regions of England are already coming of ‘an early plan or design that explains together: The Northern Powerhouse, The how something might be achieved’ Midlands Engine, The Great South West (Cambridge dictionary). While based on and The Wider South East all exist as thorough analysis and evaluation, our functional identities. draft blueprints are by no means the finished product but they point to what Our ambition is, in short, to work with could be achieved with better resourcing, these regional networks to prepare a co-ordination and support. series of draft spatial blueprints that will better enable decision-making and The technical work has been led by prioritisation of investment across the planning consultancies linked to the country and thus help the UK as a whole regions: Atkins in the North, Barton develop over the long term – creating Willmore in the Midlands and the South opportunity for all, jobs for all and West and AECOM in the South East. The prosperity for all. One Powerhouse Consortium has also worked hand-in-hand with the UK2070 Commission and drawn upon the support of the well-respected think tank the RSA.

This blueprint, along with those being developed in other English regions, identifies a series of challenges and opportunities facing the region but it also sets the context for a national conversation about the transformative benefits of regional spatial planning.

7 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Introduction

AECOM. CAPABILITY EXPERIENCE TECHNOLOGY ABOUT US Our Expertise Figure 1. AECOM Town Planning Services

AECOM’s town planners aspire to be the consultant of choice for . authorities , developers and communities wishing to achieve their vision for the built environment.

Wherever you are in the plan-making or development promotion process, AECOM’s town planners can offer experienced staff to help make your project a success.

TOWNPLANNING SUSTAINABLE & RESILIENT CITIES

Areas of Ex perti se

8 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Introduction

Supporting the ambition of the Positioning a city within the city-region One Powerhouse Consortium (OPC), Town Planning at is key: forming a strategy for connected AECOM’s approach to regional spatial AECOM places and their hinterlands to work planning for London and Wider South together, share talent, infrastructure East megaregion builds on our city AECOM’s town planners can harness and assets and complement each other. and regional planning expertise, and the collective technical, commercial, With a robust strategy these cities will ‘London 2065’ and ‘London 2070’ environmental, economic and perform better together than alone and thought leadership of the long-term management expertise of our multi- reach development targets easier and challenges facing the London ‘City disciplinary organisation. quicker. Region’. With over 100 planners based in 16 AECOM works with urban leaders to offices across the UK and Ireland, we help tackle city issues. We help with the About AECOM draw on global experience to create challenges around major population locally-specific planning solutions to shifts and structural economic changes As an integrated multi-disciplinary help unlock development potential for by leveraging connectivity and evolving consultancy, AECOM draws upon all. infrastructure in order to create the work of technical leads in spatial prosperity and employment, enhance planning, economics, transport, utility We aspire to be the consultant of the quality of life and bring communities infrastructure, environmental resilience, choice for authorities, developers and together. strategic masterplanning and data communities wishing to achieve their analytics. This integrated approach vision for the built environment. Each region is undeniably unique, allows for a holistic understanding however they all share a common set of of the region, by assessing the Wherever you are in the strategy urban systems with similar challenges interrelationships between themes and development, plan-making or and opportunities. providing an evidence base for future development promotion process, spatial planning. AECOM’s town planners can offer In delivering transformational experienced staff to help make your initiatives for cities, AECOM looks at Town planners at AECOM work project a success. city systems as a whole. Our integrated collaboratively to create community– approach means we can better prioritise based and commercially sound projects and resources, plan ahead, solutions. We help to plan and deliver Spatial Planning protect vulnerable assets and provide viable, sustainable, equitable, healthy, sustainable growth. We work as a efficient and attractive places for Larger urban cities can draw on partner to the city and use our tried present and future generations. We a bigger pool of labour and talent; and tested methodology to understand understand what drives demand for new develop more complex and specialised the interrelationship and synergies development and infrastructure at any economies; support larger and more between each system in the city to set scale, effective infrastructure; and more readily become hubs for the surrounding region a clear vision coupled with a spatial plan and for global connectivity. This is to manage the challenges and realise leading to the dominance of city regions. future opportunities.

From whole cities and regions to urban districts and projects; across urban revitalisation, resilience planning and the development and delivery of major urban plans, we simplify complexity to deliver urban transformation.

9 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Introduction

APPROACH.

The London and Wider South East Step 3: The compiling of the evidence Regional Blueprint (study area illustrated base and development of the Regional Report Structure in Figure 3) presents a high-level baseline Framework led to the identification This report is the Regional Blueprint assessment of the opportunities and of five themes that cover each of the for London and Wider South East. This challenges facing the megaregion, workstreams. These themes have is structured into three parts that set and sets out a vision to 2070 with provided the focus for this study in the overall context of the megaregion critical assets that require investment the development of the Regional and the theme based blueprints for the to support delivery of this vision. Framework and subsequent Regional megaregion looking to 2070. Blueprint. These themes are: Prosperity The Regional Blueprint is not an & Innovation, Levelling the Playing Part I Context: Outlines the UK exhaustive study, but focussed on Field, Housing Delivery, Resilience 2070 Scenarios that the Regional illustrating the strategic issues affecting & Infrastructure and Connectivity. Blueprint is responding to. This is the region, and stimulating debate and followed by the planning context, the ideas on the potential development and Step 4: As the Regional Blueprints spatial pattern of growth, and the benefits of regional planning in the UK, developed for each theme, a strategic economic, population, housing and and a starting point for development of objective was established. This demographic context of the region. an evidence-based regional spatial plan. strategic objective arises from both the evidence base and in response Part II Evidence Base: Presents The development of the London to the UK2070 and OPC objectives. a high-level baseline of the study, and Wider South East Regional which identify key opportunities and Blueprint has followed a series of Step 5: Supporting each strategic constraints for each of the themes. This steps, outlined in Figure 2, and objective is a series of policies/ideas/ is summarised in the identification of can be summarised as follows: projects that ensure the strategic the overall challenges and opportunities objective is implementable. This includes for the London and Wider South East Step 1: AECOM established 7 the identification of critical assets that megaregion. The Regional Framework workstreams to develop an evidence should be invested in for each theme. informs the development of the base for London and Wider South Regional Blueprints for each theme. East megaregion. This evidence Step 6: AECOM has taken an integrated base focussed on the following approach in the development of each Part III Regional Blueprint: Presents workstreams: Economics, Planning, of the Regional Blueprints that cover a compelling vision that brings Placemaking, Environment, Resilience, the five themes. Each of the strategic together the analysis, and challenges Transport and Infrastructure. objectives respond and are influenced and presents a way forward to 2070. by the overall objectives of OPC This includes the development of an Step 2: This evidence base was and UK2070 focussed on reducing outline Institutional Framework and compiled through the development regional inequality and should therefore Infrastructure Programme that set out of a Regional Framework (Part I of this be seen as influencing each other. key projects and timescales to support document). The Regional Framework the blueprints delivery. sets out the high-level opportunities and challenges facing the megaregion. At this stage, the Regional Blueprint is a tool to support the development of a future spatial plan or framework for the megaregion. This is meant to be the start of a conversation on how to guide the future growth of the economy in the megaregion, within a wider UK context and the challenges we all face.

10 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Introduction

Figure 2. Regional Blueprint Approach

Step 1

ECONOMICS PLANNING PLACEMAKING ENVIRONMENT

RESILIENCE TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE

Step 2 REGIONAL FRAMEWORK

Step 3

PROSPERITY & LEVELLING THE HOUSING RESILIENCE & INNOVATION PLAYING FIELD DELIVERY INFRASTRUCTURE

CONNECTIVITY

Step 4

STRATEGIC STRATEGIC STRATEGIC STRATEGIC STRATEGIC OBJECTIVE 1 OBJECTIVE 2 OBJECTIVE 3 OBJECTIVE 4 OBJECTIVE 5

Step 5 POLICY 1A POLICY 2A POLICY 3A POLICY 4A POLICY 5A

POLICY 1B POLICY 2B POLICY 3B POLICY 4B POLICY 5B

POLICY 1C POLICY 3C POLICY 3C POLICY 4C POLICY 5C

Step 6 REGIONAL BLUEPRINT

Future Spatial Plan

11 REGIONAL BLUEPRINT.

The London and Wider South East While there are a multitude of A high-level, coordinated spatial Regional Blueprint sets out the issues, organisations working at a regional plan for the megaregion - illustrated by drivers, opportunities and constraints scale (for example Transport for London, this emerging regional blueprint - offers that are affecting this complex Transport for the South East, England’s an opportunity to identify key issues and megaregion today. It then sets out a Economic Heartland, Cambridge and those areas that have not benefited and potential vision and a range of priority Peterborough Combined Authority, have intractable issues of disadvantage interventions and investments which multiple growth boards and the or of opportunity - and to prioritise would be required to support growth Greater London Authority), there is no actions to balance future growth and to 2070. The aim is to illustrate the linking organisation that is ensuring required intervention at the regional benefits of regional planning and how interventions are aligned between scale. a coordinated and multi-disciplinary the inter-connected needs of the Wider approach can provide a framework that South East and Greater London at it’s Crucially, this should not be seen draws key issues together and enables centre. as a zero-sum game. London, as aligned decision-making, based upon the economic engine of the UK, need and opportunity, to create a more This approach has led to needs to continue to be invested in, resilient region and more equitable infrastructure decisions being made however a more equitable approach to society. in isolation, focused on a competitive infrastructure investment and economic bidding process, rather than a structured growth is required. A regional scale The London and Wider South East and prioritised list of infrastructure that outlook is crucial to begin facilitating megaregion has benefited from helps to deliver balanced economic this. significant economic growth over growth and associated community the last few decades, which has been development to support it. Within the megaregion, difficult supported by significant investment in decisions will be required to begin infrastructure. However, while significant This has also led to a disconnection prioritising investments. However, a investment has been made, each between Greater London and the regional approach that includes both project has been treated in isolation Wider South East, which is a single short-term and long-term investments and there has been a lack of regional ‘city region’; unaligned decisions on can help to provide confidence for local coordination in investments. economic growth, housing growth residents, local authorities and investors and transport infrastructure leading that unlock the potential of areas across At the scale of the megaregion, there to continuing growth of road-based the megaregion and the UK. is no one plan that is guiding both commuting; and at the meta level has led economic and housing growth or to a disconnect between the megaregion The London and Wider South East aligning infrastructure investment to and the rest of the UK Regional Blueprint is not a developed these drivers beyond local areas. spatial plan and at this stage should not be While London has benefited from used to guide infrastructure investment significant economic and infrastructure decisions. This “blueprint” provides investment (even if it lacks proper a starting point that synthesises the coordination), this has potentially come key issues at a megaregional scale at the cost of other regions within the and provides a vehicle to begin a UK and in the peripheral areas of the conversation on the benefit of spatial megaregion itself. planning for the megaregion - and the UK more widely.

12 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Introduction

Figure 3. Study Area - National and Regional Context Map

Scotland

North megaregion Northern Ireland

Midlands megaregion Ireland

Wales London and the Wider South East megaregion

South West megaregion

EAST

LONDON Key

London + Wider South East Ashford megaregion Folkstone English megaregion Devolved UK Nation SOUTH EAST City/Town

Motorway

Rail link

13 14 Part I: Context

15 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Megaregion Context

ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT

THEOne Powerhouse technical FUTURE partners were given a ‘technical brief’ - an Assumption 1: Assumption 2: illustrative outline of the potential form and content of each mega-regional Urban Life Energy plan. It suggests certain common Short term: Congestion is Achieving net zero by 2050 will components for the regional blueprints: due to get worse in the UK over necessitate a combination of local a) a rigorous analytical framework; the next 30 years. The degree of community solutions (such as low b) a series of compelling visions; c) a intensification will be determined carbon heat solutions in homes, strategic investment framework; and d) by rates of population and electric vehicles, decentralised an analysis of institutional capacity and economic growth, costs of driving, wind generation, micro-generation strategic partnerships for delivery. demand for freight and several and reduced energy demand) and other variables. High demand could large-scale centralised solutions Given the long-term, visionary nature lead to the introduction of capacity (such as offshore wind generation, of these spatial plans, OPC have also management systems such as tolls hydrogen for heat, carbon capture made several assumptions about and segmentation, as well as smart and potentially new nuclear energy potential future scenarios, based on the traffic management systems, such production by the mid-2030s). Low available evidence. These are set out as as driverless cars and the use of big levels of: (i)policy support; (ii)GDP follows: data in transport systems. growth; (iii)consumer engagement; or (iv)technology development Longer term: Towards the end might prevent us from achieving net of this period, however, congestion zero by 2050 (FES 2019). Issues of might start to ease, as workers energy poverty must be addressed, leave the biggest cities, driven away as must the potential increased by rising house prices, declining demand on the energy system as a air quality and traffic. Digital result of technological innovation. substitution for travel will facilitate this shift and the robotisation of city-centre jobs will contribute to a reduction in the amount of people travelling to city centres.

16 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Megaregion Context

Assumption 3: Assumption 4: Assumption 5: Climate Change Large-Scale Greenbelt &

A changing climate is likely to Infrastructure Projects Agricultural Land bring significantly increased risks Despite delays and concerns Greenbelt policy will not be of extreme weather events such about costs, HS2 will go ahead, abandoned, but there will be a as flooding or droughts, which will connecting London and gradual and incremental loosening impact transport infrastructure, Birmingham by 2031. of restrictions as pressure for house agriculture and other vital economic Notwithstanding current building grows and more councils sectors. Without intervention, it is equivocation, One Powerhouse find ways to ease restrictions. In the estimated that floods and droughts supports the extension of tracks short term, population increases will become more severe. Kent, to both Manchester and Leeds by will result in an increase of home- Lincolnshire, Yorkshire and the 2040. This will boost rail capacity grown food production, but in the Humber are high flood risk areas, and ease road congestion. It is long-term changing diets and while drought will likely hit hardest possible that by 2070 HS2 will regenerative agricultural methods in the South East. have been extended to Glasgow will change how land is used. and Edinburgh. By the end of this period, hyperloop might be used to transport freight and possibly passengers, most likely following existing motorways.

17 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Megaregion Context

THE IMPORTANCE OF

SPATIALaiming PLANNING to proactively shape change There has since been little or no spatial Defining Spatial and improve investor confidence. In planning at the regional scale in England, Planning many parts of the world the discipline of leaving a patchwork and uncoordinated planning spans the spatial elements of system of local planning at various scales. The One Powerhouse Consortium multiple different policy streams. At the time, the all-party Commons believes adopting and implementing a Communities and Local Government broad notion of spatial planning is critical The UK government itself has Committee warned that “the intended to the future of the UK economy. For previously defined spatial planning as abolition of regional spatial planning some, the discipline of planning involves something that “goes beyond traditional strategies leaves a vacuum at the heart a limited set of narrow statutory functions land use planning to bring together and of the English planning system which regulating the use and development of integrate policies for the development could have profound social, economic land. Increasingly, however, planning is and use of land with other policies and and environmental consequences set to conceived more holistically, as a creative programmes” – such as sustainability, last for many years”. (parliament.uk 2011). process of envisioning and delivering transport, economy and culture – “which places and regions fit for the future. This influence the nature of places and how Since then, the government has broader conception often goes by the they function” (Taylor 2010). extolled the virtues of ‘spatially-blind’ name of ‘spatial planning’. planning, making its investment decisions according to the current performance of At its most basic, spatial planning is the Spatial Planning industries and sectors and deliberately ‘where’ of decisions. A spatial plan is the in the UK ignoring place and spatial inequality and visual illustration of the potential future of the poor productivity of large parts of an area. It maps out all the assets within In the UK, spatial planning has been the country. a given area – the towns, cities, houses, best embraced in the devolved nations. schools, universities, roads, rails, It has helped the newly devolved nations The one place in England that does airports, offices, factories, hospitals, to express their cohesiveness and their have a comprehensive spatial plan energy sources, leisure activities – and, distinctiveness and to coordinate their is London, supporting the capital using the available evidence, suggests different policy programmes in service to become uniquely coordinated how best to arrange and develop them of common aims. and productive. Elsewhere, there is to achieve stated goals. Spatial planning insufficient focus on how policies and is the practice of producing these Alongside this, in the early 2000s interventions interact and sometimes maps and the associated coordination the New Labour government oversaw contradict in a given place. This hinders of different activities and decisions the creation of 9 regional development the integration of London and the wider that influence spatial organisation. In agencies in England tasked with South East region, which share many its 2004 plan, the Welsh Government developing Regional Spatial Strategies economic characteristics. Restrictive defined spatial planning simply as the (RSS). These were aimed at bridging land use planning at the local level “consideration of what can and should the gap between local planning policy remains the norm across much of the happen where” (WAG 2004). and national objectives, in many cases country, preventing the development allowing for more effective development of strategic responses to many future Spatial planning tends to be multi- and infrastructure decisions, although challenges. agency, long-term and strategic. It the debate often focussed on housing encompasses wide-ranging economic, numbers. In 2010, the new coalition political and environmental functions and government abolished the regional incorporates projections for the future, strategies as part of its move towards localism in planning.

18 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Megaregion Context

Planning in 2070 The megaregion Today Multi-disciplinary Role

London and the South East will be Together, London, South East and of Planners subject to significant growth over the East of England standard regions form Planners today are multi-disciplinary next 50 years. Social, transport and utility a highly-connected economic region. practitioners at the edges of many single infrastructure however is at capacity, Future development and resilience overlapping disciplines (town planning, with cities and regions struggling to across the area is part of the same landscape architecture, architecture, accommodate escalating demand. debate. AECOM has identified a series masterplanning, economics, of challenges that, ultimately, represent conservation and engineering). The Across this large area, the planning opportunities across the South East lines between these disciplines are process is the responsibility of 154 megaregion, and set the context for a blurring and generations Y & Z focus authorities, working alongside 13 Local national conversation about the benefits on multi-tasking across these lines, Enterprise Partnerships (LEPs), Greater of regional spatial planning, to optimise seeking variety, evolution and innovation London Authority (GLA), Cambridgeshire the potential of the UK. in undertaking planning tasks. By and Peterborough Combined Authority, 2070 planners will have evolved transport agencies, and utility providers. By 2070 the practice of Town Planning further as multi-discipline built- Yet, there is no forum empowered to will be 161 years old and shaped by geo- environment practitioners working align the complex relationships that exist political, philosophical, professional and across themes and moving between to plan strategically across the region for technical drivers different from today. professions, as part of work flexibility. shared benefit - or interface with other

UK megaregions. Planning approaches generally change in response to major world Digitisation of Planning If the region is to accommodate events or stimuli. Industrial revolutions, growth in a sustainable way and bring structural change, World Wars, economic Smart data assessments, digital the greatest benefit to communities, depression, boom and recession, tools, automated analysis, interactive then the approach to planning will need democratic socialism, neoliberalism and documents, digital participation, to have changed. population matters have all required a visual tools, VR walkthroughs and the concerted effort by the profession to increased power of technology to There is a need to adopt a more manage the impacts of these shocks undertake usual tasks – will radically progressive and pragmatic approach through proactive planning. change the working day and priorities to planning for housing, services of a planner in 2070. Innovation through and infrastructure delivery, while By 2070 it is reasonable to assume open data will continue with the ultimate- ensuring planmaking is better aligned that planning will face more shocks, aim to move from single themes such as with wider economic objectives, as generational priorities change and Citymapper/Replica, Open Active, Open such as productivity; which is rarely environmental pressures increase. Banking to a system which successfully considered. Planning will be judged on criteria combines place-making with data- of socially inclusive and equitable driven technology. outcomes alongside the normal activities of balancing social, economic These changes to the nature of and environmental needs to shape the planning inevitably require a different way that towns and cities grow. response to how planning for growth is undertaken and how integrated our solutions will need to be.

19 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Megaregion Context

SPATIAL

RELATIONSHIPS.London cannot be considered in The integration of the administrative Sub Regional Dynamics isolation, and the London and Wider area of London and Wider South East of the megaregion South East form a city region, in which is complex. Rapid growth across the regional development, infrastructure, megaregion has led to significant London has traditionally been at globalisation and faster commuting spatial and socio-economic change the centre of power, governance and have outgrown administrative and serious inequalities, which are often trade due to its important historical boundaries. These cross-boundary expressed spatially. role in the economy and its place as issues are exemplified between London the centre of UK politics. This has led and its commuter catchment, as almost While visually London appears to be to higher levels of growth in the city, as one million people commute across clearly bounded, in reality its boundaries well as the surrounding areas. The areas greater London’s boundary every day in are harder to define and reach into the adjacent to London have grown from both directions (Figure 4). A commuting surrounding counties (Hofman, 2010). an agricultural hinterland to a suburban population equivalent to the size of The Green Belt, while successfully network of towns and the location of Sheffield commutes to London each preventing sprawl, has had the major growth in their own right, while also day. As transport connectivity improves unintended consequence of enlarging acting as the environmental ‘lungs’ for within the region, this is likely to increase the functional metropolitan area as the megaregion. The role of the London as the 60-minute commuter catchment population, development and business in the UK has been exacerbated by the expands. leapfrog the Green Belt and continue centralised nature of the UK and growth on the other side (Gordon and Travers, of London as a global city. 2010). The functioning city region extends more than 50 miles and includes Dartford, Milton Keynes, Cambridge, Reading, Brighton and Medway (Figure 5).

Figure 4. Commuting between London and the Wider South East

Source: ONS origin-destination analysis.

COMMUTING OUT 250,000

710,000COMMUTING IN

20 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Megaregion Context

While this spread of development and In the same way that the administrative The Regional Blueprint has defined business can be beneficial, it leads to boundary between London and the the London and Wider South East inevitable tensions between authorities Wider South East region is artificial, the megaregion (larger than the London City within London, the Green Belt areas and boundaries between the London and the Region identified in Figure 5), this should those adjacent to the Green Belt as to Wider South East megaregion and the be understood as a soft boundary where where development should take place Midlands and South West megaregions significant interaction occurs daily. and how this global city region operates. are also porous. Regardless, to effectively balance Not all areas across the Wider South Northamptonshire is traditionally London and the Wider South East’s East region face the same pressures. associated with the Midlands, but it growth and make informed choices While the areas within the commuter is highly connected to the economic about priorities for infrastructure belt, particularly those immediately growth at Milton Keynes with flows of investment, there is a need to look outside the Green Belt, face huge people moving between the two each beyond current administrative development pressure; other areas of day. Felixstowe, the largest container boundaries. the megaregion (particularly coastal port in the UK and major international areas of Kent and areas of east England) gateway, is linked to the Midlands via are not experiencing the same levels of the A14, where goods and services are growth and investment. Addressing distributed across the country. the issues that are faced in these Figure 5. Extent of the London City Region places (i.e.. lack of employment, poor connectivity, higher levels of deprivation) is equally as important as addressing the difficulties faced by highly pressurised areas, if we are to rebalance the region and the UK.

90km

< 2% 2.1 - 3% 3.1 - 5% 5.1 - 7% 7.1 - 9% 9.1 - 14% 14.1 - 18% 18.1 - 24% 24.1 - 30% 30.1 - 42% 42.1 - 54%

Source: ONS Origin-Destination Analysis

21 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Megaregion Context

ECONOMIC CONTEXT.

Approximately 960,000 commuters more widely. Sustained investment in London’s Sphere of travel between London and the Wider skills, infrastructure and connectivity Influence South East every day, making up around will facilitate increasingly balanced 16% of the capital’s workforce and economic growth both in London and London – one of only two Alpha++ earning in excess of £70 billion in wages regional towns and cities in the wider cities in the world – is not only the each year. South East. megaregion’s nucleus, but a vital component of both the national and Whilst London demonstrates Investment in London, should not be global economies. In 2020, London’s business start-up rates well in excess at the cost of other towns and cities sole rival is New York when it comes to of the UK average, recent trends show in the South East and UK. Investment integration with influence on the world a net movement of firms relocating should not be seen as a zero-sum game. economy. London is a global economic from London to other towns and cities London has to be seen within the wider superpower, with more head offices in the Wider South East, including Milton UK ecosystem of cities that includes of banks than any other city in the Keynes, Reading and Brighton. Bristol, Birmingham, Manchester, world. Its economy would be the 8th Liverpool, etc. Investment is required largest in Europe, if it were a country. The increased cost of living and the in the Midlands, North and other areas loss of industrial land in London over of England, as well as in the devolved The majority of London’s economic the last decade has resulted in some nations of the UK in order for London activity occurs in the Central Activities businesses and employees preferring and the Wider South East to achieve Zone (CAZ) and the Northern Isle of to service the London market from other its economic ambitions and ensure Dogs (NIoD) which experience globally locations in the Wider South East. that there is an interconnected unique agglomeration effect benefits and complimentary English and UK that result in exceptional levels of The volume of people commuting economy. productivity, not replicated anywhere into London means that transport else in the UK. London alone contributes and infrastructure demands are not 28% of England’s Gross Value Added comparable with any other region in the Changing Economy (GVA). London’s CAZ (broadly the UK. London has a unique dependency on London and the Wider South East is a West End and City), is one of the most rail and population density that means significant driver of the English economy, competitive business locations in the there is a need for continued investment accommodating over one third of the world, generating almost 10% of the UK’s in transport such as Crossrail 2, the population of England and contributing output and employing 1.7 million people. Bakerloo Line extension and HS2; over 55% of all GVA. The megaregion is which will help unlock housing, both in the only part of England which operates While London is one of the world’s London and the Wider South East, and a “fiscal surplus” in that it contributes leading financial and cultural centres, ensure access to the CAZ and NIoD are more in taxation than in receives in public growing global competition, particularly maintained, but also that other parts of expenditure. The future success of the from increasingly ambitious Asian the wider megaregion can growth. cities, means its global competitiveness megaregion’s economy up until 2070 is of paramount importance to all local cannot be taken for granted and will be To effectively balance London’s authorities in England. redefined. growth and make informed choices about priorities for infrastructure Beyond the London and Wider South Within the Wider megaregion, all investment, we need to look beyond East megaregion, a key ambition of OPC local authorities are linked to London current administrative boundaries of and UK2070 is to extend the success in by complex economic relationships in the capital as the benefits and impacts productivity and performance to the rest terms of finance, skills, culture, people of such projects cross the city region and trade. of the UK and break down the inequality of opportunity and investment across the country.

22 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Megaregion Context

Illustrative of the national importance, However, London and the Wider communication, public services and in terms of GVA contribution, twenty- South East’s economy is changing, other services all demonstrating seven of the top fifty local authorities in which highly connected and strong growth both in terms of GVA and in England are located within London constantly evolving places will jobs. Sectors such as manufacturing, and the Wider South East region. Often emerge in response to the new distribution and production – which perceived as the commuting hinterlands economy and the way we live. are most at risk from automation of London, the megaregion contains and augmentation – experienced several high performing towns and Figure 6 presents analysis of the negative or only modest increases in cities, such as Milton Keynes, Brighton, megaregion’s economic sectors both employment, however both continue to Reading, Cambridge and Oxford, which in terms of GVA (x-axis) and jobs (y-axis) grow in terms of GVA. act as economic engines in their own since the turn of the millennium. The right and in interdependence with the megaregion’s economy is characterised capital. by the service sectors with professional and administrative, information and

Figure 6. Growing & Declining Industries in the megaregion, 2000-2016 % Change in Jobs 100%

Real Estate

80%

Professional & Administrative 60% Public Services Information & 40% Communication Other Services Distribution 20% Construction Financial & Production Insurance 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140%

% Change in GVA -20% Source: ONS Manufacturing NOTE: Size of bubble represents total employment -40%

23 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Megaregion Context

By 2070, the majority of jobs in the In order to accommodate such growth Fourth Industrial megaregion will have evolved beyond in jobs, London and the Wider South Revolution recognition, resulting in a need for major East will need to find new spaces for re-skilling for the existing workforce. employment and react to a growing Trends demonstrate that the Around one third of jobs in London could demand of quality places for working megaregion’s economy has already become automated, with some sectors and living as new aspects of life and started experiencing the effects for and employees more severely affected. society emerge. In particular, the the Fourth Industrial Evolution (4IR). The impact on the megaregion’s low megaregion’s strengths in creative and The 4IR is creating a demand for jobs and medium skill workers is likely to be cultural industries initiates demand for in ‘technical’ and ‘human’ professions greatest. entrepreneurial and incubator space, as which require a workforce proficient well the office market space for social in both analytical and creative skills. UK2070 Futures Modelling estimate and business functions. that London and the Wider South East Technological changes will continue to will experience an increase of 2.4 million transform the workplace, with potentially jobs by 2070, bringing the total amount half of current jobs automated within 20 of jobs across the megaregion to 13.6 years. Jobs and businesses will become million. This equates to almost 34% more agile, with employers looking for of jobs across the UK being located well-connected, flexible, collaborative within the megaregion. and cost-effective locations. Meanwhile, employees will have greater choice over when, where and how to work, with 5G and other future digital communication technology changing the relationship between where we work and where we live. 18m

16m

14m

12m

10m

SUPER FAST AUTOMATION WIRELESS DRIVERLESS CLOUD GLOBAL CONNECTIVITY CARS TECHNOLOGY CONNECTIONS

24 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Megaregion Context

GROWTH CONTEXT.

Based on the UK2070 forecasts, by delivered between 2011 and 2018) for Housing Forecasts 2070 London and the Wider South East the UK2070 Futures Modelling and megaregion will be home to nearly 43% compares this to the MHCLG 2017 The UK2070 Commission has of the population of England. Standard Methodology, which identified developed household projections to a housing need of 160,000 homes per 2070, which are informed by a series of This scale of population growth annum within the megaregion (assuming scenarios that assess historic housing means we need to build homes, create the LHN per annum remains consistent delivery in relation to potential economic employment opportunities and to 2070), and social outcomes. deliver infrastructure for more than 150,000 people every year, for the This helps to frame the actual question The UK2070 Commission Future next 50 years. of what the scale of the challenge is over Modelling forecasts that between 2011 the next 50 years. If housing delivery to 2071, the number of dwellings within However, while the population is set to can increase in the short term, this will the megaregion will increase from 9.6 increase dramatically, the megaregion eventually lower the requirement and million homes to 13.6 million homes, faces a significant challenge in the therefore lower the housing need figure which will require the delivery of an delivery of new homes. Figure 7 presents closer to the Future Modelling Analysis. average of approximately 66,600 homes the dwelling growth between 2019 per annum up to 2070 (Figure 7). to 2070 (taking into account homes

Figure 7. Housing Growth to 2070

18.7m 18m 2017 MHCLG Housing Need

16m 10 year Avg. 14.1m Housing Delivery 14m 13.6m UK2070 Futures Modelling 12m

10.2m 10m Homes in the megaregion 2019

2019 2070

Source: UK2070 Futures Modelling, Draft Technical Report (May 2019) & MHCLG Standard Methodology for Calculating Housing Need (2017)

25 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Megaregion Context

Housing Challenge 2022-26 Changing If a ‘business-as-usual’ approach Demographics continues, in which housing delivery Not only is the population of the remains consistent with the average megaregion set to see significant delivery over the past decade growth to 2070 there will also be (75,000 homes per annum), we will a change in the make-up of the fall far short of meeting the identified population, particularly an increase in housing need. 2017-21 population over the retirement age. These changing demographics will have Figure 8 presents the cumulative a profound impact on the megaregion, housing demand and shortfall to which will have the knock-on affect of 2026 based on the 2017 standard increasing the dependency ratio in the methodology and rolling forward the region and putting greater reliance on historic 10 year housing delivery rates. the economic activity of the working age This demonstrates that between 2017 population. and 2026, there will be a shortfall of housing need by over 800,000 homes, Between 2018 and 2041 it is forecast based on recent trends. that there will be a 56% increase in retirees and a 103% increase in elderly Whilst it is acknowledged that delivery 795,000 1,590,000 population across the megaregion, with is linked to housing need, this clearly 393,000 786,000 -403,000 -805,000 the greatest increases spatially located identifies the step change in delivery within the East of England and along required to meet the housing challenge the south coast. This will require the by 2026, let alone 2070. megaregion to cater to the demands of an ageing population, with transformed community and social infrastructure provision.

Consequently, the approach to development cannot just focus on increasing housing numbers. There is a need to also emphasise building new types of communities that are Figure 8. Cumulative Housing Need, De- multi-generational, and widen the livery and Under-supply to 2026 type of housing delivered, with broader tenure choices. Cumulative Housing Need - Standard Methodology Cumulative Delivery - Last 10 Years Cumulative Undersupply

Source: MHCLG Standard Methodology for Calculating Housing Need (2017), MHCLG Net Additional Dwellings by Local Authority (Table 122)

26 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Megaregion Context

This scale of growth in the population Young and working age citizens If this is not addressed, the likely above the age of 70 will not be are more mobile and blending work consequences are that London and accompanied by the same level of and social life. This new generation is, the Wider South East will essentially population growth in those in their early however, increasingly excluded from become a transient region with more career forming years (7% increase) and home ownership by housing supply and renters and less neighbourhood with those during their career maturing affordability constraints in the property cohesion. This will impact on the quality phase, which will see an overall decrease market. In London, in particular, home of local communities. As the Mega in population. prices are 15 times the average salary region becomes less affordable, housing and rental levels consume 40% of demand across the region increases, This demographic shift will call for a average earnings. which will further place increased very different approach to community, demands on local infrastructure. social care, service provision and an This is a regional issue, where the increase in supported housing types constrained housing supply is increasing at the heart of local communities. This as the region struggles to deliver enough will require a fundamental change in homes, which increasingly impacts how we approach future employment placemaking across the region. The and indicators for success, in particular issues of affordability, demographics the movement away from a GDP led and housing choice will necessitate approach to social equity. the greatest change in community development and placemaking across the megaregion.

Figure 9. Percentage Population Change 2018 - 2041 & Total by Age Group 2041,ONS

+4% +7% -1% +18% +56% +103%

6.2M 3.5M 7M 6.7M 3.8M 1.1M Children & Career Career Second Retirees Elderly Young Forming Maturing Career 70-84 years 85+ years 0-19 years 20-29 years 30-49 years 50-69 years Source: ONS

27 28 Part II: Evidence Base

II.

29 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Part II - Prosperity & Innovation

PROSPERITY & INNOVATION. Challenge 1: Challenge 2: Challenge 3: Maintain Current Productivity Skilled Labour

Economic Strengths The megaregion is the most Access to a labour force with productive area in the UK, although this The megaregion contains a number of adequate skills is a growing concern, has been growing at a slower rate than nationally significant economic assets particularly for high value sectors global counterparts. According to the and industrial clusters that drive the (advanced manufacturing, life sciences Cisco UK Productivity Index, Greater economy and are a strong foundation for and finance). Constrained housing London contains 15 of the 20 strongest future growth. supply in London, Cambridge and performing local authorities. Oxford is contributing to a high cost of London’s Central Activities Zone (CAZ) living and making it difficult to attract However, there is significant sub and the North of the Isle of Dogs are and retain the best talent, particularly regional disparity. The East of England dominated by professional, scientific & overseas workers which complement lags behind the national average, while technical services, finance & insurance, skill shortages in key sectors. As a the South East performs better but and information & communication result, the megaregion is facing growing experiences disparities between local sectors. competition from overseas locations authorities in the north and west of the that compete to attract highly-skilled region outperforming areas in Kent and The Megaregion also contains a and globally-mobile workers. rural Sussex. number of industrial sectors that are identified as key for future development, A regional plan must recognise including life sciences, advanced these intra-regional disparities as Challenge 4: manufacturing, creative, agri-tech well as recognise national inequality and energy. These sectors have Fourth Industrial and align planmaking with emerging potential for growth to 2070, and for Local Industrial Strategies to restore Revolution cross-fertilisation that will encourage productivity growth. innovation and productivity growth. The Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) is defined by new disruptive The region’s leading economic technologies (i.e.... artificial intelligence), clusters are supported or anchored in which advances will affect all aspects by universities that provide vital R&D of urban life, with complex implications expertise, as well as an agglomeration for the economy, environment, lifestyles of state of the art facilities and ready and spatial distribution of economic supply of highly skilled labour force. activity. Whilst the 4IR is likely to improve Supported by some of the most highly- productivity, demand for labour within rated universities in the world, the the megaregion is expected to decline. ‘golden triangle’ life science clusters Manufacturing, transport, construction, in Cambridge, London and Oxford are and administrative sectors are likely to among the most productive in Europe see the greatest job losses, as a result of and internationally. automation.

30 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Part II - Prosperity & Innovation

Figure 10. Prosperity & Innovation Regional Framework (Baseline Assessment) Key Source: ONS, EEFM, Ordnance Survey, AECOM Research & Analysis

# Universities Greater London Area Ports (Passengers per year) 500 - 3,000 Major Global Universities Creative Industries 3,000 - 25,000 Local Enterprise Zone Advanced Ports 30,000+ Manufacturing Economic Clusters Size reflects scale Airports (Passengers per year) Freight Ports 500k - 1.5M Innovation Areas 1.5 - 20M

Life Sciences 46M - 78M

Agri-tech

GVA per region As % of UK total 0.1%

3.4%

N 0km 20 40 80

31 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Part II- Placemaking

PLACEMAKING.

Challenge 5: Challenge 6: Challenge 7: Inequality Unbalanced Investment Housing Delivery

While the disparity between UK While London has significant pockets AECOM has identified that based on megaregions is often highlighted, of deprivation, the coastal communities the MHCLG standard methodology, by the inequalities within the South East and the industrial areas in the north, at 2026 there could be a deficit in housing megaregion are significant. the periphery of the megaregion are delivered of over 800,000 dwellings being left behind. Looking at this in across London and the Wider South East. Deprivation in the megaregion is often relationship to planned housing, these The shortfall has been a longstanding hidden by its comparative prosperity. communities are generating lower levels issue with the provision increasing as the Over half of England’s least-deprived of growth in comparison to London, the region continually fails to meet housing areas are in the megaregion. However, Oxford-Cambridge Arc and transport targets. the megaregion is also home to nearly corridors into London. As investment is one in five of the 10% most deprived increasingly aligned to housing delivery, If this trend continues, this could areas in England. this may have the compounded effect result in a shortfall of over 1 million that the more deprived areas at the homes by 2036. Mapping the 10% most deprived periphery of the region are less likely to communities, presents clusters of receive investment, which reinforces the While Local and Central Government deprivation in the coastal regions of issues they face. have looked to increase delivery through Hampshire, Sussex, Thames Estuary, housing-led urban regeneration, Garden Norfolk and Suffolk. Equally, older The 2013 National Infrastructure Community initiatives, accelerated industrial towns, such as Northampton, Plan identified London as the recipient delivery and sub regional planning in Peterborough, Corby, Kettering, of 40% of England’s total spend on Oxford-Cambridge Arc and Thames Wellingborough, and Ipswich are all regional projects. However this level of Estuary, there is a need to look areas of greater relative deprivation. spend is not reflected in other parts of strategically to resolve the issue of the megaregion or across the country. housing delivery. Equally, the view of London as a centre Professor Cecilia Wong, in an article of wealth, masks significant inequality. published for UK2070, highlights The megaregion has many common London is the location of the eight most infrastructure investment focusing economic, functional and cultural deprived Local Authorities in the region, on London. On a per capita basis, relationships. The region is set to grow with the East London Local Authorities of investment in London is equivalent by 150,000 people per annum, while Hackney, Newham, and Tower Hamlets to over £4,000 per person, while the 960k people commute in both directions the most deprived. South East and East of England receive between London and the South East. approximately £1,000pp. This contrasts This requires an integrated approach to with the East Midlands and North East, regional spatial planning to better align which receive less than £600 and £900 housing growth with infrastructure and pp. not rely on this growth to be managed within individual towns or local authority A regional spatial framework within the areas. megaregion would provide the evidence base to support coordinated investment in infrastructure and services that support new and existing communities.

32 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Part II - Placemaking

Figure 11. Placemaking Regional Framework (Baseline Assessment) Key Source: ONS Index of Multiple Deprivation, Ordnance Survey, MHCLG, AECOM Motorways Research & Analysis Rail lines Greater London Area IMD: 10% Least Deprived IMD: 10% Most Deprived

Major Settlements

Strategic Housing Sites (Proposed Housing) 500 - 1,000 1,000 - 5,000

5,000 +

MHCLG Garden Towns

N 0km 20 40 80

33 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Part II - Resilience

RESILIENCE.

While Green Belts provide value – in Challenge 8: containing urban sprawl, public ac- Challenge 10: Access to Green cess to green space, mitigation of the Climate Change urban heat island and better air quali- Infrastructure ty – the rigidity with which this planning Climate change poses a challenge to policy is enforced may not provide the both the natural and built environment. Across the South East megaregion best outcomes for the environment, the The 2018 UK Climate Projections indi- the aggregate provision of green space economy or development. cate that under all climate scenarios, exceeds minimum standards, with the the Megaregion will get hotter, with dri- region having the highest proportion of Green space in urban areas can er summers and warmer, wetter winters protected designations within the UK. often be more biodiverse than the with increased frequency and intensi- However, access is far from uniform and Green Belt, however, strict adherence ty of rainfall events, and rising sea lev- nearly 400,000 people lack adequate ac- to policy can place urban green spaces els, which will put the coastal regions at cessibility to open space, while London, – which are often more accessible - at greater risk. in particular, is far below the minimum 2 greater risk to development. standard with 21m per person. If these hazards are unavoidable, Green Belt can lead to development The Government’s recent 25-year planning needs to anticipate impacts leapfrogging, which results in Environment Plan (May 2019) commits to make the region more resilient, disconnected and high-density to an approach whereby green space incorporating mitigation measures and developments beyond the urban and green infrastructure will become in- spatial development options that better periphery. This can result in longer creasingly tied to delivery of and funding manage climate change, in order to commutes, due to a lack of coordinated by new development. This presents an avoid lock-in and stranded assets. The planning of housing, economic growth opportunity to capitalise on population interdependencies between the natural and transport infrastructure. growth, to develop innovative mecha- and built environment can result in nisms that deliver green infrastructure climate change acting as a multiplier of Arguably, this approach to Green Belt as ‘net gain’. Conversely, if spatially this risk. protection inflates property values – does not address the shortfall in parts of reinforcing the affordability challenge in the region or improve access, or explicitly Linked to climate change, the Mega the South East megaregion. look to the strategic green infrastructure Region is one of the most water-stressed required to support climate change ad- regions in England. Climate change will aptation. The opportunity exists to refresh and further stress supplies as hydrological redefine the Green Belt to align with conditions change, while population and principles of sustainable development. economic growth will place more assets Challenge 9: AECOM research has identified over at risk from climate hazards. Climate Green Belt 63,000 hectares of developable land change consideration must therefore within one mile of existing rail stations be incorporated into spatial plans and in the Green Belt (outside otherwise Across the megaregion, there are sig- development policy to accommodate protected areas or flood zone). In theory, nificant areas of designated Green Belt current risks and mitigate future ones. these areas could accommodate more surrounding key transport and cities. than 2.5 million homes, while leaving 88% The Metropolitan Green Belt surrounds of the designated Green Belt untouched. London, reaching as far as Southend- A strategic review of the region’s Green on-Sea, and to the boundaries of Read- Belt could consider which is of most ing and Milton Keynes. Oxford and Cam- value and allow for greater flexibility and bridge also have designated Green Belts. functional use, while improving social and environmental value.

34 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Part II- Resilience

Figure 12. Resilience Regional Framework (Baseline Assessment) Key Source: Ordnance Survey Data , Met Office (BEIS and DEFRA) Scenario/ Projection 02491, Ordnance Survey, AECOM Research & Analysis Major Flood Defence Projects

Thames Barrier

Natural Assets High Quality Agricultural Land Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty National Parks Climate change Mean Summer Temperature projected increase to 2079 using year 2000 baseline* 2 0C

8 0C Greater London Area Natural Flood Zone 3

*Adapted from Met Office (BEIS and DEFRA) Scenario/Projection 02491 N 0km 20 40 80

35 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Part II - Infrastructure

INFRASTRUCTURE.

Challenge 11: Challenge 12: Challenge 13: Water Stress Delivery of Utility Access to Digital

Water stress is a major challenge Infrastructure Technology in the megaregion. Intensification There is a need for a long-term Access to new forms of of development, new settlements approach to utility planning that is communication will be critical for and economic growth will add to integrated with housing and economic communities and businesses and demand for new abstractions, which growth as no single part of the Mega potentially support in linking peripheral are already limited to short periods Region can be self-sufficient across areas that have poor transport of the year and in parts of the region utility networks. Utility planning is infrastructure. there is no additional capacity remaining currently approached on a reactive without innovative, large-scale basis to development. While all utility 5G and full-fibre are critical to enable solutions, which means water will be a companies set out long-term strategies the region, and nation more widely in significant constraint on economic and to issues such as climate change, order to take advantage of the Fourth housing growth. Large-scale solutions provision is approached on a short Industrial Revolution, which will rely on are required to accommodate growth. term basis, because current regulation connectivity and sharing data. Above This will include water use reduction discourages investment ahead of need. all, the next digital technologies will give and reuse strategies but will also include new freedoms to how people live and large-scale water transfers from other work – affecting the spatial distribution areas of the UK and the likelihood of of growth. significant new investment in reservoirs and water treatment facilities within the Ensuring all places have equitable megaregion. access to these technologies is crucial, particularly the peripheral and disadvantaged locations, as a key economic driver – with Government intervening in their implementation. A regional spatial plan would support the implementation of a digital strategy that ensures both new and existing communities have access to new technologies and ensure equal opportunity.

36 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Part II - Infrastructure

Figure 13. Infrastructure Regional Framework (Baseline Assessment) Key Source: Ordnance Survey Data , Ofcom, Thames Water, AECOM Research & Analysis Gas Pipes Broadband " Gas Sites Average Download Speed LNG Liquefied Natural Gas Facilities > 60 Mbps National Grid " <20 Mbps Substations # Indicative Water Stress Region Nuclear Less than 30% Renewables availability for ! abstraction Solar Greater London On-shore Wind Area Biomass Off-shore Wind

Fossil# Fuels # Gas # Oil Coal

N 0km 20 40 80

37 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Part II - Connectivity

CONNECTIVITY.

Challenge 14: Challenge 15: Key Investment in a Regional Maintain Global Motorways Rail lines Network Presence Interchange stations East West Rail Transport infrastructure in the The megaregion provides multiple megaregion is heavily influenced by international gateways that connect with OxCam Expressway London, with national and international the rest of the world via air and sea ports, HS2 strategic rail and road networks train and road. London’s six airports HS1 & Channel Tunnel radiating from the capital. These account for 61% of all UK airport capacity Crossrail 1 connections enhance trip gravity in the (terminating passenger flows), with megaregion towards London, which Heathrow accounting for over a quarter Crossrail 2 (proposed) have been driven by and contributed to of the share (80 million passengers). its economic growth. London Outbound Commute However, expansion of air capacity in 5% London is considered to be the most the South East, particularly at Heathrow, congested city in Europe, with the worst is controversial. On one hand, the third 60% traffic hotspot along the western section runway project enables regional and Greater London Area of the M25. By 2043, rail capacity on the national growth that maximises the approaches to London will be a significant ‘value’ of the UK’s hub airport. On the London Inbound Commute constraint, but future infrastructure such other hand, expansion also means as % of MSOA as Crossrail 1, HS2 and the proposed complex mitigations to manage local 5% Crossrail 2 as well as intra-urban transit air quality, congestion and strategies upgrades are expected to ease some of to promote balanced economic growth 60% these issues. across the UK. Ports (Passengers per year) London has traditionally received The significant share of movement in 500 - 3,000 greater infrastructure investment than the megaregion is further exemplified by 3,000 - 25,000 the rest of the UK. However, infrastructure ports. Four of the UK’s top ten major ports in the wider South East has also not are located in the region and account 30,000+ kept pace with growth. The implication for a third of total UK freight arriving/ of this lack of investment, combined departing. In addition, train and road Freight Ports (Tonnes per year) with peripheral urban growth has been travel to France and Continental Europe heavily car reliant communities. begins in London and travel via the 2M Channel Tunnel. 25M Within the megaregion, areas to the north have limited east-west 50M+ connectivity. There is now a growing trend to resolve this issue, with the area between Oxford, Milton Keynes and Cambridge expected to benefit with better connections from East West Rail and an Expressway, together with the strategic improvements to the A14 towards the Port of Felixstowe, the UK’s busiest container port. 38 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Part II - Connectivity

Figure 14. Connectivity Regional Framework (Baseline Assessment) Source: ONS, Ordnance Survey, Rail Capacity Studies, AECOM Research & Analysis

Key Airports (Passengers per year) 500k - 1.5M 1.5 - 20M

46M - 78M

Rail Capacity: 2043 (Where information is available) 100% + OxCam Expressway 75% - 100% 0 - 75% HS1 & Channel Tunnel Crossrail 1 Crossrail 2 (proposed)

N 0km 20 40 80

39 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Part II - Connectivity

CHALLENGES TO ...

Reducing Prosperity & Innovation Inequality 1. Maintain Current Economic Strengths - 2. Productivity - + 3. Skilled Labour + - + - + + + 4. Fourth Industrial Revolution - Placemaking 5. Inequality Equitable Distribution of 6. Unbalanced Investment Population Growth 7. Housing Delivery Resilience 8. Access to Green Infrastructure 9. Green Belt 10. Climate Change Infrastructure Increase Delivery 11. Water Stress of Housing 12. Utility Infrastructure Delivery 13. Access to Digital Technology

Connectivity 14. Investment in a Regional Network 15. Maintain Global Presence

40 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Part II - Connectivity

OPPORTUNITIES

Leaders in the Fourth Enhancing Why Now? Industrial Revolution Productivity Over the last decade there has been a fractured approach to spatial planning. While local authorities, joint authorities and London have continued to develop @ plans, these have not adequately £ £ € £ £ addressed regional issues. Even in the @ @ £ $ period of Regional Spatial Strategies, the $ region was split into component parts, @ £ with separate approaches to growth.

Today the London and the Wider South East megaregion lacks any form of spatial framework to guide successful Maximising the Tackling Climate growth, economic development or Green Belt Change infrastructure investment. The issues of housing delivery, economic investment and prioritisation of infrastructure investment are regularly debated, but without an aligned approach between London and the cities, towns, counties and districts.

It should be recognised that London’s performance has direct impact on other towns and cities within the megaregion. These strong functional links don’t stop at the GLA boundary, but go far beyond the megaregion, into the wider UK. Timely & Coordinated Creation of a Planning Infrastructure Delivery Framework It is this context of unparalleled change within the megaregion that requires a strategic regional spatial framework for growth. This requires an integrated framework, which can tie together priorities of urban growth, economic potential and infrastructure investment.

This framework is not a return to past planning structures. This framework will need to embrace resilience, recovery and social equality. This framework needs to operate at the meta policy level across the megaregion.

41 Part III: Regional Blueprint

42 Part III: Regional Blueprint III.

43 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Part III - Regional Blueprint

THE REGIONAL

BLUEPRINTS.This section sets out a series of To deliver change on the scale Figure 15. Regional Blueprint Themes regional blueprint layers for London required to tackle inequalities across and the Wider South East. The draft the megaregion and the UK, a long-term Prosperity & blueprint is intended to represent an strategy needs to be taken. The UK2070 01 Innovation early plan that sets out the megaregion’s Commission specifically identified the long-term development and spatial need to begin developing national and Sets out the Regional Blueprint in opportunities to 2070, with the aim of sub-national spatial frameworks. These relation to the economic priorities of creating balanced development (social / spatial frameworks will ensure that urban the region to 2070. environmental / economic). growth is effectively managed over time in a sustainable manner, realising the Each layer sets out the opportunity advantages of growth and regeneration Connectivity that regional planning offers to begin across the megaregion to the benefit of 02 addressing the inequalities within the residents, business and investors. megaregion and together with the other Sets out the Regional Blueprint in megaregional Blueprints, creates the Sub-national spatial frameworks relation to transport network and context for making informed policy and will also deliver a more efficient and key investment required to deliver infrastructure investment decisions sustainable regional structure that aims economic growth to 2070. across the UK. This involves setting to prevent climate change and ensure out key opportunities for regeneration environmental assets are managed Housing and long term economic growth, as appropriately. A regional approach to 03 well as the critical assets, major areas planning will further unlock opportunities Delivery of development and key infrastructure that will support the development and Sets out the Regional Blueprint for investment opportunities. Each growth in those places that have been planning and the delivery of new blueprint focuses on strategic moves of ”left-behind”, and not received the level housing, based on the economic national or megaregional importance, of investment required in either the and transport priorities to 2070. rather than local issues. economy or community, as a result of the political and economic priorities of the last few decades. Climate Change & Inter-Related 04 Resilience Workstreams Sets out the Regional Blueprint for Looking Forward the environment and climate change The regional planning process is to 2070 issues that are affecting the region complex and requires a blend of inputs, to 2070. data and skill sets to be brought together. Importantly, the London and the To deliver the Regional Blueprints, a Wider South East Regional Blueprint is series of workstreams and cross-cutting forward looking to 2070. This recognises Levelling the themes have been identified and are that the way we live, work, and play 05 Playing Field summarised in Figure 15. will change dramatically over the next Sets out the Regional Blueprint in 50 years. In particular, the economic relation to the areas of the megar- An integrated approach has been priorities of the megaregion and the egion that have greater levels of taken as part of the development of UK economy as a whole will undergo deprivation and have traditionally the Regional Blueprint. Each of these significant transformation. This presents not benefited from the economic, workstreams influence one another an opportunity to begin rebalancing transport and social priorities of the and form the building blocks to ensure and shifting those economic priorities past several decades. balanced economic, social and of the past, to one that places as great environmental development to 2070. an emphasis on the environmental and Figure 16 presents this integrated social priorities of the 21st Century. approach. 44 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Part III - Regional Blueprints

Figure 16. Integrated Approach to the UK2070 Ambition OPC Ambition Regional Blueprints These blueprints, and the regional It is the ambition of the OPC to plans that will follow, sit behind the prepare a national spatial economic work of both the UK2070 Commission plan for the UK using the evidence base and OPC. The UK2070 Commission is of the 7 separate spatial frameworks an independent inquiry into the spatial or ‘blueprints’: the four ‘provinces’ or inequalities in the United Kingdom. The megaregions of England and the three purpose of the commission is as follows. devolved nations (Figure 3).

“There are deep-rooted This is in response to the UK2070’s inequalities across the UK. These policy action calling for the development are not inevitable. However, we lack of national and sub-national spatial the long-term thinking and spatial frameworks for London and Wider South economic plan needed to tackle East megaregion commission. The them. The UK2070 Commission will regional blueprint should set out the seek to fill this gap through a national key socio-economic and environmental inquiry and debate on the nature of assets of the region and suggesting how the problems and set out the actions these could be developed to support needed to address them.” more balanced economic growth.

The Commission has identified The blueprint that is set out on the that the UK is one of the most following pages aims to identify the regionally unbalanced countries in the regional spatial structure in terms of industrialised world, which has led to assets and networks, identifying what the UK not taking advantage of its full is ‘on the ground’ today and envisioning economic potential. There is a growing ‘what could be’ to unlock economic and imbalance in wealth and opportunity social potential. across the country, which has led to enormous pressures in terms of The Regional Blueprint aims to population, housing affordability and develop a series of compelling visions infrastructure overload in specific areas. for cross-cutting themes, outline a strategic infrastructure programme and To deliver change on the scale required an institutional framework to develop a and to tackle inequalities in the UK, a long- prototype of what a sub-national spatial term, cross-cutting transformational framework for the London and Wider strategy is required, involving devolving South East could focus on. development of spatial frameworks and subsequent funding. The regional blueprints provide the start of a conversation that needs to be developed with key stakeholders across the megaregion. Currently, there is no single organisation looking at these regional issues. Rather, there area a number of different actors with competing interests. A new dialogue is required to begin resolving the issues facing the region today. 45 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Part III - Prosperity & Innovation

01 PROSPERITY &

INNOVATION.by the creation of a market for Embracing the Fourth Vision 2070 more highly skilled job roles, Industrial Revolution including data analytics and The megaregion will embrace software development. The primary innovation and technological- By 2070, the Fourth Industrial challenge for the megaregion’s driven change to promote inclusive Revolution (4IR) will have Advanced Manufacturing clusters economic growth. fundamentally changed the way people is how to re-skill the existing in the megaregion live, work and relate to workforce. New technologies have already led one another. Characterised by emerging to disruptions in the way people in the technologies that fuse together the • In the future, the focus on creativity, megaregion live, work and relate to one physical, digital and biological worlds, the leadership and problem-solving will another. The speed, breadth, and depth 4IR will impact all disciplines, economies be key to differentiating humans at which these changes are continuing and industries. from machines. The megaregion’s to occur presents opportunities and Creative Industries clusters challenges, which must be embraced The megaregion’s priority economic are expected to be future-proof by policy-makers. A more progressive clusters have been identified through a / future-resistant, in that complex and integrated approach to planning review of LEP Local Industrial Strategies problem-solving and critical must be adopted in response to and illustrated in Figure 17. Whilst the thinking is difficult to automate. the megaregion’s rapidly changing LEP’s Local Industries Strategies are • A greater emphasis on creativity economy. relatively short-term, in comparison and interpersonal communication to this Regional Blueprint, they pave skills will increase the requirement This Regional Blueprint for London the way for driving innovation, higher for creative individuals as other and the Wider South East aims to productivity and creating high-quality roles are filled by algorithms identify the policy areas which should and well paid jobs through investment in and machines. In London alone, be pursued in response to economic skills and industries in the megaregion. creative industries already change and the spatial implications of contribute £52 billion to the this. This section sets out how this can Looking beyond the Local Industrial economy each year and provide be delivered: Strategies, the 4IR’s technological one in six jobs in the capital. advances present several opportunities Creative enterprise zones, a new 1. Embracing the Fourth industrial and challenges for the megaregion’s Mayoral initiative for London which Revolution (4IR); economic clusters that should be seeks to provide space, skills and invested in to 2070: a community for creatives, should 2. Enabling a network of Inclusive be expanded across the creative Growth Corridors; and • The Advanced Manufacturing centres of the region to facilitate clusters in the megaregion will the development of the cluster. 3. Realignment of skills and experience significant restructuring training. as a result of the 4IR. Implementation • Agri-tech clusters will be critical of new technologies such as to the resilience of the region. robotics, data analytics, 3D Located in close proximity to the printing and artificial intelligence megaregion’s Grade I & II agricultural (AI) will improve productivity and land, they will need to embrace foster economic prosperity and Internet of Things (IoT) sensors, innovation. high-resolution 3D imagery, drone • Whilst it is accepted that the 4IR technology and AI-powered soil will lead to a decline in jobs in analytics to increase yields, lower factories and on assembly lines; production costs and reduce this decline will be counterbalanced

46 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Part III - Prosperity & Innovation

Figure 17. Prosperity & Innovation Regional Blueprint

Key Priority Economic Clusters Inclusive Growth Corridors Motorways Advanced Manufacturing 1 Oxford-Milton Keynes-Cambridge Arc 2 London-Stansted-Cambridge Innovation Corridor Rail lines Creative Industries 3 M1 National Spine Greater London Area 4 Great Western Corridor PROSPERITY & 5 M27 Coastal Corridor Inclusive Growth Corridors Agri-Tech 6 Gatwick Diamond 7 Thames Gateway Settlements Future Energy INNOVATION. Airports Life Sciences

Regional Growth Centres Future Logistics

Financial Services (London)

5 N 0km 20 40 80

4747 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Part III - Prosperity & Innovation

environmental degradation. The 4IR London. The locational benefits and geographies to positively impact will provide the tools required for of this corridor are likely to remain both organisations and communities. the Agri-tech clusters to move away important up to 2070, but the from harmful pesticides, unlock new emergence of concepts such as the Inclusive Growth Corridors can be plant-based innovations, increase ‘gig economy’ and the ‘subscription defined as areas where economic resilience to extreme weather economy’ together with newly opportunities are fairly distributed events and climate change. A more connected and automated across society. efficient use of land will promote distribution technologies means local food production and help that the megaregion’s logistics By 2070, it is expected that the the region be more efficient to the providers need to develop and collective efforts of the megaregion’s projected population growth. launch new business models that local authorities, LEPs, ministerial can serve their evolving customer departments (i.e.. MHCLG, DfT and BEIS), • Technologies such as big data, IoT base. agencies and other public bodies (i.e. and cloud computing are expected National Infrastructure Commission) to revolutionise the generation, • Predominately located in and will focus productivity improvements distribution, consumption and around London’s Central Activities in location specific Inclusive Growth storage of Future Energy in the Zone (CAZ) and Northern Isle Corridors. megaregion. Building upon the of Dogs (NIoD), the Financial megaregion’s existing renewable Services cluster will experience a Based on the agglomeration of energy assets (off-shore wind, on- paradigm shift as the 4IR takes hold. specific pieces of infrastructure shore wind, solar and biomass), low- Currently, Financial Services are and existing or priority economic cost power sources that require yet to fully embrace technological clusters, seven Inclusive Growth little to no resource input will lead to advancements. Whilst the banking Corridors have been identified emergence of close to ‘free energy’. sector has embraced internet within the megaregion (Figure 17): The implementation of ‘free energy’ and mobile banking, mobile-only will have significant productivity banking providers, a cash-free 1. Oxford-Milton Keynes- benefits for other clusters in the economy and the mainstreaming of Cambridge Arc; megaregion. cryptocurrencies will revolutionise 2. London-Stansted-Cambridge the entire sector by 2070. Faced Innovation Corridor; • The megaregion’s Life Sciences with spiralling costs associated 3. The M1 National Spine; clusters will be characterised with the impacts of climate change, 4. Great Western Corridor; by emerging technologies which the insurance sector will need to 5. The M27 Coastal Corridor; utilise AI, robotics, the IoT, 3D embrace machine learning and printing, and nanotechnology, real-time geo-intelligence which will 6. The Gatwick Diamond; and combined with unprecedented data eclipse traditional risk assessment 7. The Thames Gateway. processing power, storage capacity methods. and access to knowledge that will A well-connected network of Inclusive lead to transformative scientific Growth Corridors will ensure balanced achievements. Life sciences Network of ‘Inclusive economic growth, which will transform clusters, most notably in and around Growth Corridors’ the lives of residents and provide Cambridge and Oxford, need to productivity improvements through focus on redesigning jobs and tasks public and private sector collaboration. The 4IR goes beyond technological- by utilising the more essential human driven change, it also presents an skills and integrating them with The Inclusive Growth Corridors are opportunity to assist policy-makers in technology to improve productivity. designed to go beyond ‘site-by-site’ alleviating the inequalities experienced development and embed whole-system across the megaregion. • The 4IR will also impact the thinking. Defined Inclusive Growth megaregion’s Future Logistics Corridors will offer a coordinated Delivered through Inclusive Growth clusters located along the M1 approach in leveraging existing local Corridors, the 4IR will promote Corridor and on the fringes of strengths and delivering future strategic collaboration across sectors, disciplines

48 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Part III - Prosperity & Innovation

investments in infrastructure, most planning, re-skilling and upskilling. by more technical duties, such as coding notably transport. Proactive management of such trends and analytics. must be addressed through the delivery Inclusive Growth Corridors will also of skills at the start of careers and The megaregion’s employers must facilitate the future development of the through retraining the megaregion’s accept that each worker is estimated to megaregion’s town centres. By 2070, ageing population. require in excess of 100 days training to most town centres will be focussed on re-skill for the future. Furthermore, in a enhanced consumer experience and From primary education through to time when people will work for longer and civic functions rather than retail. Vacant higher education, curriculum changes retire later, it will become the norm where retail premises will be replaced by a must embrace technological advances workers experience multiple careers in a greater offering of restaurants, physical to prepare future generations for an lifetime. services, entertainment, civic and evolving job landscape. cultural events, which are accessible The provision of skills and training to all. They will support community The megaregion should leverage for all ages, and particularly for low cohesion and sustainable economic the concentration of world-leading skill workers, will play a critical role growth particularly of SME’s and educational and research institutions, in delivering inclusive growth across footloose workers. such as the University of Cambridge, the megaregion. Achieving inclusive University of Oxford, London School economic growth in the megaregion will The successful development of the of Economics and Imperial College not only change the way people work, megaregion’s Inclusive Growth Corridors London, to provide a workforce which but also the way people live. requires significant investment in the possesses both ‘technical’ and ‘human’ provision of skills and training which skills. Economic clusters require Critical Assets aligns with the future employment workers who are proficient analytical PROSPERITY & INNOVATION demands of the priority economic thinkers and active learners capable clusters. of understanding, operating and maintaining new technology such AI, 1. Mechanisms such as Enterprise Zones robotics and big data. will be used to provide space, skills, policy Focus investment in the priority and communities to support businesses However, proficiency in new economic clusters to deliver in the megaregion’s identified economic technologies is only one part of economic growth across the clusters. Facilitated by the 4IR, the the skills equation. The growing megaregion and UK. success of these economic clusters importance of generic and transferable within the megaregion’s Inclusive Growth skills such as creativity, originality, Corridors is dependent on re-training initiative, persuasion and negotiation existing employees and ensuring that will be of paramount importance to 2. future generations have the skills the megaregion’s economy by 2070. required to fulfil these new roles. Emotional intelligence, leadership Invest in the 7 Inclusive Growth and social influence are also set to be Corridors to deliver growth increasingly demanded by employers. aimed at the priority clusters and Realignment of Skills leveraging existing assets. As well as public and private By 2070, the megaregion will have educational institutions preparing sufficient infrastructure in place to future generations for the needs of the 3. deliver the appropriate skills and megaregion’s economy, employers must retraining required to accommodate also understand the importance of re- Invest in Skills by leveraging the needs of the Inclusive Growth skilling the existing workforce to capture assets such as world leading Corridor’s economic clusters and ensure the value from the 4IR. As the population universities and establishing adaptability to all of the labour force. To of the megaregion ages, an increasing training courses for re-skilling prevent emerging skill gaps, induced by number of workers will see their job roles to ensure clusters and Inclusive the 4IR, the megaregion must adopt a evolve. Repetitive tasks will be replaced Growth Corridors are maximised comprehensive approach to workforce

49 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Part III - Connectivity

02 CONNECTIVITY.

centres across the region (London, Vision 2070 Mobility as a Service Oxford, Milton Keynes, Cambridge and (MaaS) Brighton), but can also be achieved at The UK will have achieved its net the local scale in smaller communities zero greenhouse gas emissions In the drive to achieve cleaner air, lower (Norwich, Ipswich, Peterborough). The target and will be working towards greenhouse gas emissions and fewer community hubs will be a catalyst for achieving Vision Zero (no greenhouse accidents on the transport network, the principles associated with transit- gas emissions). The transport system 4IR will see Mobility as a Service (MaaS) oriented development, creating higher will have adapted; moving away from come into its own, where a vehicle will density, mixed-use, vibrant and walkable a system based on individual car become less of a commodity and more neighbourhoods and provide the link ownership, to a system based around of a service. between local transit networks and the a fully integrated transport system regional inter-city networks. across the megaregion. MaaS will result in transport being viewed as a personalised and on- Transport is currently the largest demand service that could be shared Delivering an Integrated contributor to greenhouse gas with others in the community making Transport System emissions in the UK. Therefore the the same journey. On the network itself, transportation sector will require automation will enable full integration Connectivity is crucial to a thriving transformational change to adapt to the between all modes and harness real- regional and national economy. Delivery changing environment and economic time data to create an efficient system of an integrated transport system that realities of the megaregion. to connect people with places and connects homes, jobs and communities drastically change the way in which we requires a joined-up approach to urban This will be particularly noticeable travel. growth around transport. This will at the local level. To achieve this be managed through an overarching transformation, however, there Key to achieving social and economic transport body which will co-ordinate needs to be significant investment in equality will be investment in public the alignment of housing, economics infrastructure as well as a change in the transport. This will encourage a and transport across the megaregion. way we approach and use transport. significant shift in travel behaviour, This is outlined in greater detail as part of getting people out of their cars and the institutional Framework for London This section sets out how this can be using sustainable and/or active travel and the Wider South East megaregion. delivered at a local, regional, and global modes to ultimately reduce greenhouse level by 2070: gas emissions. Second, it will also Connectivity in the megaregion is allow everybody access to transport currently heavily influenced by travel 1. Mobility as a Service (MaaS); transforming employment opportunities. to and from London, with national and international strategic rail and road 2. Delivering an integrated A socially inclusive public transport networks radiating from the capital. transport system; and network by 2070 will be fully-integrated, However, the network suffers from bringing together various transport capacity issues due to this centralised 3. Connecting the megaregion with modes and social amenities at a focus. the UK and the world. community hub as our town centres are reimagined. This will be where intra-city Planned and proposed transport Only by effecting change at all levels transport modes can interchange with infrastructure within London, such as will the necessary transformation be the first-mile/last-mile modes such as Crossrail 2 (and a Crossrail 3), and the achieved. walking, cycling and e-scooters, and Bakerloo and Northern Line Extension, is combined with social infrastructure will help to address capacity constraints to create a local community hub. This on the network within London and its is already partly evident in major city immediate hinterland.

50 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Part III - Connectivity

Figure 18. Connectivity Regional Blueprint Key Proposals Integrated Sub-Regional Transport Network (Tier 1) Motorways Rail lines Integrated Sub-Regional Transport Network (Tier 2) Major motorway upgrades National Highspeed Transit Corridor Proposal HS2 - National Spine Route Orbital Line CONNECTIVITY. HS1 & Channel Tunnel Orbital Line East of England Branches Greater London Area Existing Rail Line Upgrades Elizabeth line Crossrail 2 (proposed) Commuter Catchment Area Elizabeth line (extension to Ebbsfleet) London Catchment Area Major Regional Settlements Airports Freight Ports HS5

HS4

N 0km 20 40 80

51 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Part III - Connectivity

Further investment to improve and upgrade existing infrastructure is Improved City Mass Flexibility for Logistics required to ensure London maintains Transport As an efficient public transport its economic role within the UK and network develops, the road space In addition to the existing planned internationally, while balancing growth will primarily be used as corridors to or proposed transport proposals across the region. Consequently, this transport goods and services around connecting the megaregion, this will require not just transport investment the megaregion. ‘Omni-corridors’ will on blueprint has identified the importance within London, but it’s wider region the face of it provide key infrastructure of establishing city based integrated through the development of an Orbital for transporting goods from the ports transport networks in key cities and Line and a Regional Express Network. to logistics hubs and then to homes towns across the megaregion. This will These projects will help to maintain and retailers around the megaregion, enhance the first mile / last mile transport growth and seamless movement into but below ground will become the major connections that are crucial to support and around London and the Wider utility corridors for key services. While the Inclusive Growth Corridors and South East, while also supporting the small scale home-delivery services such connect the areas around these cities Inclusive Growth Corridors across the as drones can contribute to first-mile/ and towns into a community hub, and megaregion (Prosperity & Innovation). last-mile transportation of goods, road- thereby enabling MaaS to be developed. based logistics will still have its place in Whilst London is the biggest driver 2070 as a strategic network between Two types of integrated transport of growth in the megaregion, there ports and distribution hubs across the systems have been identified. First, in is an increasing recognition that country. connectivity needs to support a more the major regional economic centres of balanced distribution of economic Oxford, Milton Keynes, Cambridge and growth and opportunity. East West Rail Southampton/Solent the development Connecting the and Expressway projects are already in of larger “metro” style networks that the initial stages to better connect the could include bus rapid transit, light-rail megaregion with the UK Oxford-Milton Keynes-Cambridge Arc, and other higher-order public transport and the World which is identified as one of the Inclusive modes. Second, to ensure all residents Growth Corridor and will be supported of the megaregion have access to A network of National Highspeed by a faster, flexible and reliable transport opportunity, the smaller economic Transit Corridors will be developed network that will connect major cities to centres (such as Ipswich, Norfolk, across the UK, which will focus on Inter each other, rather than just with London. Peterborough, Ashford, etc) will see City Regional connections. investment in reliable high-quality bus- In addition, the upgrading of the based ‘last-mile’ networks focussed High-speed rail growth would extend A27 and coastal rail route will improve around the community hubs in these the planned routes of HS2 (from London connectivity along the south coast and cities and towns, which will link people to the Midlands, Northern England and complement economic growth as part across the megaregion into the wider rail into Scotland) and HS3 (as a Trans- of the Gatwick Diamond and the Western network. Pennine connection), adding HS4 to the Wedge Inclusive Growth Corridors. west and an eastern HS5 route. Investing in integrated transport This transport network must be systems across the megaregion and With technologies such as Hyperloop developed in line with the economic improving the first mile / last mile and Magway expected to be potentially ambitions of the megaregion and the connections presents the opportunity established by 2070, the time savings wider UK. To ensure that the Inclusive to level the playing field and ensure between the megaregion and other Growth Corridors and the people and that all residents have access to the UK City Regions will provide a huge businesses located within them are able same opportunities. This will have the economic benefit nationwide. to prosper, a coordinated approach in added benefit of reducing the need for leveraging existing local strengths and car-oriented infrastructure investment delivering future strategic investments and supporting the megaregion’s in infrastructure, is required. environmental and climate change ambitions. 52 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Part III - Connectivity

The megaregion provides multiple international gateways that connect with Critical Assets the rest of the world via air, sea ports, CONNECTIVITY train and road. 4. Heathrow is and will remain as the Invest in Urban Mass Transit UK’s largest airport. Connected on the 1. Systems, focus on giving people national high-speed rail network via a real alternative to the car in Invest in MaaS technology super interchange at Old Oak Common, the region’s cities; enabling and community hubs (major rail the Heathrow Air Hub will be the gateway sustainable growth and putting the interchange points in cities and to the world for all in the UK. Investment regions’ core cities ‘on the map’ as towns across the megaregion) in an orbital Line around London will a destination. to encourage behavioural shift further encourage inter-airport transfers and provide reliable and frequent in the megaregion. Further expansion transport access for all residents of the high-speed network into France, in the megaregion. Switzerland and Germany will strengthen ties with European countries. 5. Invest in high-speed Sea ports in the South East will be 2. connectivity, taking advantage the start and end point for a significant of new technologies to link the amount of freight in the UK, and the Deliver Existing Planned megaregion with other areas of the movement of this within the megaregion and Proposed Transport UK through investment in National and nationally will require strategic level Infrastructure within London to Highspeed Transit Corridors. planning. As London Gateway grows to alleviate capacity (inc. Crossrail become the largest logistics park in the 2, Crossrail 3, and Bakerloo and UK, its connections to other hubs across Northern Line Extensions). the country needs to be both efficient 6. and green. With transport innovations such as Hyperloop, we will see hugely Invest in global connectivity reduced travel times to move sensitive 3. as Heathrow, London Gateway, freight such as fruit and vegetables Felixstowe and Southampton/ around the country efficiently, but also Deliver Existing Planned Portsmouth all become major a significant reduction in emissions too and Proposed Transport hubs, this will require investment as vehicles are replaced by this form of Infrastructure within the Wider to allow industries and businesses transport. South East that focuses on to link into the global economy. connecting the region without In the short-term, there is also a accessing London. This includes need for investment in Strategic Rail East West Rail and Oxford to Freight Interchanges (SRFI) within the Cambridge Expressway, as well as megaregion to enable freight arriving major upgrades to the A27 along into Felixstowe or London Gateway to the South Coast and delivering be moved across the wider UK. SRFI’s SRFIs. have often faced hurdles in receiving approval and therefore prioritising these across the megaregion to enhance UK economy as a whole is crucial.

53 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Part III - Housing Delivery

03 HOUSING DELIVERY. To ensure housing is delivered across Vision 2070 Building on the region in environmentally and Existing Assets socially sustainable places, investment The megaregion will increase in transport infrastructure (outlined in the delivery of housing to meet As the population of the megaregion the Connectivity Regional Blueprint) will the needs of residents and reduce grows rapidly to 2070, the bulk of this be required. Development of community affordability issues, while reinforcing growth will occur within existing towns hubs and the introduction of MaaS will the polycentric network of cities and and cities. In addition, Greater London is begin to provide integrated transport towns. highly unlikely to be able to accommodate options to cities and towns, as a way to its housing need; adding pressure on improve first mile / last mile connectivity. The Prosperity & Innovation and the wider region to accommodate Connectivity Regional Blueprints this growth, while increasing demand Intensification of suburbs will also have emphasised the need to develop on commuter routes. This will require have the added benefit of improving Inclusive Growth Corridors that deliver land across the megaregion to be local amenities and facilities and lead sustainable economic growth across used more efficiently and effectively to improvements in the public realm the region, and the delivery of new to accommodate population growth, and allowing new local centres to transport infrastructure that supports with an increased emphasis towards flourish, stimulating the local economy. the growth of towns and cities across strategies focussed on developing With careful place-making, design and the megaregion. around existing infrastructure assets, sensitivity to existing communities strengthening and densifying suburbs and character, low-density suburbs will This will need to be further reinforced and intensifying development in the become more attractive and vibrant by the delivery of housing in new post-war New Towns. places to live, with larger populations to or expanded locations to support support local services and amenities. economic growth and ensure the Suburbs that are well connected by critical mass to deliver new physical and public transport will be areas of focussed The original post-war New social infrastructure. intensification. This approach should Towns within the region offer further be explored in cities and towns across opportunities to strengthen existing This section sets out where and how the region, particularly those tightly assets that utilise and improve existing housing can be delivered across the bound by Green Belt or environmental infrastructure. New Towns in the region megaregion to reinforce the polycentric constraints. Focussing development on include Stevenage, Crawley, Hemel nature of the South East, as well as new suburbs makes better and more effective Hempstead, Harlow, Basildon, Welwyn delivery models to increase delivery use of brownfield land, reducing sprawl Garden City and Hatfield, Peterborough, and improve affordability. and the potential negative impacts on Northampton and Milton Keynes. biodiversity and ecosystems when 1. Building on Existing Assets; developing on greenfield sites. The New Towns are well located and well-connected, providing access to 2. New Town Programme 2.0; In particular, intensification should major locations of employment, such as be based around Transport Orientated London and Birmingham, as well as being 3. Reinforcing a Polycentric Region; Development (TOD) principles; improving employment centres in their own right, and public transport and cycling/walking and all are located on mainline railways. access to city centres, local centres and 4. New Housing Delivery Models employment areas from the suburbs. This will help to reduce car-dependency as the UK moves towards the 2050 Zero- Carbon goal and encourage a reduction in travel overall and active lifestyles.

54 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Part III - Housing Delivery

Figure 20. Housing Delivery Regional Blueprint

Key Motorways Opportunity Areas (Homes) 01. Upper Lea Valley (20.100) Rail lines 02. Lower Lea Valley (32.000) Greater London Area 03. Vauxhaul (20.000) 04. Wembley (11.500) Built Up Area of Key Towns 05. London Riverside (26.500) 06. Old Oak Common (24.000) Urban Core 07. Royal Docks (11.000) Commuter Catchment Area 08. Colindale/Burnt Oak (12.500) 09. Cricklewood/Brent Cross(10.000) Broad Areas of Search for the 10. Greenwich Peninsula (13.500) identification of a Regional New 11. Isle of Dogs (10.000) Tow n Original New Towns MHCLG Garden Towns Suburban Densification Significant Densification

8 1 4 2 5 6 9 11 3 10 7

N 0km 20 40 80

55 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Part III - Housing Delivery

Figure 19. Polycentric megaregion

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! ! ! !

56 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Part III - Housing Delivery

The Town and County Planning successful, the focus should be on further identifies Broad Areas of Search Association estimate that 2.2 million investing in a number of these New for the identification of a Regional New people now live in New Towns within Towns, but at a larger scale; focussing Town. These would be the location England. While the towns have been attention and intensifying development for a New Town of a significant scale successful, and their populations are to create the critical mass necessary (>50,000 homes), which could be one of expected to continue to grow, further for successful sustainable communities, the MHCLG supported Garden Towns at intensification and investment could which can support integrated local scale or a newly designated New Town. create the critical mass to make these and regional public transport as well locations more vibrant places to live, as a good balance of social and green strengthening the existing communities infrastructure. By investing in fewer but Reinforcing a and improving existing infrastructure larger garden towns, this will allow for Polycentric Region and social and community facilities. places with ambition and a strong civic After more than half a century since function to develop in the region. The Regional Blueprint has identified their designation, most of the New that the delivery of homes, either through Towns are looking ‘tired’. They need In particular, this Regional Blueprint new or existing towns, must be within the an injection of new investment and in identifies focusing on the MHCLG- Inclusive Growth Corridors identified in particular improved public transport supported Garden Towns identified in the Prosperity and Innovation Regional systems - both of which can come from Figure 20 at North Northamptonshire, Blueprint, which are also the locations for the stimulus of a new critical mass of Hemel Hempstead, Bicester, Didcot, the greatest transport investments (as population. It would also provide an Grazeley (near Reading), Basingstoke, identified in the Connectivity Regional opportunity to upgrade elements of the Welborne, and Brentwood. However, the Blueprint). This integrated approach built environment, making them more scale these communities are currently in developing the Regional Blueprints adaptable to future challenges – i.e.. proposed does not go far enough. There will reinforce employment clustering reconsidering layouts focussed around needs to be a shift from communities of and development of new and existing car-use, to reduce car-dependency and a couple thousand homes, to the ones industries, by ensuring skilled labour can encourage new ways of urban living. that provide the suitable critical mass live in close proximity to jobs. to support a complete community, each with over 10,000 homes. This approach will support and New Town enable a thriving south east network of Programme 2.0 The New Towns and Garden Towns cities and towns, which are distinctive identified in Figure 20 are well connected and individual but also connected and While there is capacity within existing into the existing transport network and interdependent. settlements to absorb growth, a within the travel to work areas of existing new wave of New Towns will likely be settlements. These locations offer the These Inclusive Growth Corridors are needed within the megaregion as its best opportunities to build on current the opportunity to connect specialist population and the popularity of Garden investments to create successful New economic sectors, educational facilities Communities continue to grow. Towns and present an opportunity to and cultural and environmental assets strengthen the existing settlements to where people want to live, while The Ministry of Housing, Communities they are located near, reinforcing and maximising economic potential. and Local Government (MHCLG) driving the local economy and allowing have announced their support for a symbiotic relationship to develop the development of 27 new Garden between the New Towns/Garden Towns Communities. To make the programme and existing settlements. This blueprint

57 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Part III - Housing Delivery

London will continue to be the economic, social and cultural nucleus of New Housing Case Study: the megaregion, however, this approach Delivery Models Mass Timber will reinforce the polycentric nature of the entire region and ensure that the rest Currently, housing delivery across the “Mass Timber” is currently emerging of the South East is not seen as a series region has not kept pace with housing as a new building material with significant of unconnected individual towns that need. This has led to a significant environmental benefits (cross-laminated surround London, but rather a region undersupply of housing and has, in part, timber). This method involves the use of connected and interdependent. led to increased issues surrounding solid timber panels and beams which affordability in many locations. are strong and fire resistant, created by These regional towns and cities have Importantly, this is not a London compressing multiple pieces of timber the capacity to expand and provide challenge, affordability is a challenge in together. Prefabricated in factories and the scale, critical mass and facilities many towns and districts, particularly then assembled off-site, if using modular to attract a diverse and economically with growing economies or with strong housing principles. Within the buildings, successful population. transport connections to the London modular interiors with sliding panels employment market. allow spaces to be easily adapted for Through intensification of existing different uses. Mass timber also acts towns and cities, as well as developing One approach to begin tackling this as a store from carbon and improves air fewer but larger Garden Communities, issue will be to develop new housing quality. As long as forests are carefully this will reinforce the economic functions delivery models that can increase the managed and re-planted to ensure that and create the critical mass required to pace of delivery across London and they are not depleted, mass timber ensure the Wider South East thrives, in the Wider South East. By adopting new offers a sustainable and renewable the context of the UK as a whole. technology, this creates new possibilities building approach, which could exist for construction. Housing delivery in harmony with, and even incentivise, Figure 19 illustrates the polycentric models should make use of new materials significant tree re-planting and careful nature of the megaregion, which needs to and building techniques to build more forest and woodland management. At be reinforced through housing delivery adaptable and environmentally friendly the moment, regulation limits the use and transport investment to ensure buildings, better suited to the challenges of cross-laminated timber for low-rise economic functions and critical mass of the future. buildings (less than 18m), but there is are achieved. This polycentric city region significant potential to increase their use model will enhance the megaregion as Modular housing offers new within the UK context to 2070. a whole, as a hub for global integration opportunities to design and manufacture and high-level enterprise, with a network sections of buildings to be transported It is likely, however, that technology will of towns and cities within a 45-minute and constructed on site. The various not only change construction methods, commute to central London and each construction methods and technologies but also how we access housing in other. can offer a more efficient and cost- the future, potentially following the effective way of building, utilising disruptive precedent of AirBnB in the the latest digital building information holiday rental market. New models for modelling (BIM) tools, reducing the accessing housing may become more carbon footprint of development and popular, with a shift away from home- utilising more flexible use of scarce skills ownership and towards a variety of rental in the construction sector. options, home-switching opportunities and more flexible tenancies as housing starts being seen as a service, in which individuals can rent when and where they want – ‘HaaS’ (Housing as a Service).

58 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Part III - Housing Delivery

This shift would of course have to be carefully regulated to ensure security Critical Assets and protect the rights of both renters Housing Delivery and owners.

Future housing models will also need to meet the desire for different types 1. of housing products and ways of living as lifestyles change. This could include Intensification of existing a move towards a greater number of settlements: Densify suburbs co-living and intergenerational living around public transport hubs and opportunities where flats or houses are invest in brownfield sites to unlock grouped together around communal potential and within the original living spaces and shared facilities and New Towns. different generations can share spaces. This will help tackle isolation, but also reduce carbon footprints as people share more facilities between them. 2. New Towns: a programme As the way we work continues to of strategically located new change, housing products that provide towns, well-connected Garden combined live / work shared spaces will communities with the scale and need to become commonplace. ambition of the 20th century programme, located on strategic growth corridors 3. Investment in new technologies and techniques: Development of more adaptable, more environmentally-friendly building techniques and housing models.

59 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Part III - Levelling the Playing Field

04 LEVELLING THE PLAYING FIELD. Adaptation will be required for all com- Vision 2070 Adapt to a Changing munities, however early investment Society within communities that have so far not The economic priorities of the sec- th adapted as well and are already lagging ond half of the 20 and first decades Built environments need to be de- st offers the opportunity to integrate these of the 21 Centuries has led to wealth signed flexibly to adapt and respond to areas into the new economy. By adapting in the UK to shift and centralise unforeseen circumstances. By 2070, the the built environment for the new econo- around London and its well-connect- way we live and work will be different. We my, this could prevent town centres from ed hinterland. will have moved away from GDP as the becoming derelict and reinvent them for traditional measure of a successful and the 21st Century. However, even within the megaregion, productive economy, with increased em- there is not an equitable distribution of phasis on socially inclusive growth and Within the megaregion policies should wealth. Deprivation can be found in all well-being as a measure of success. The be targeted in communities along the communities, however there are three built environment will need to allow for coastal areas, the industrial towns to the particular clusters; the coastal areas of and reflect this. north of the region and in east London, Suffolk and Kent, the old industrial cen- where greater levels of deprivation are tres of Northamptonshire and pockets Recent economic policy and invest- felt, but also where significant human within Greater London. ment in England has been centred on capital is located. the core city-regions, which reflects the The 4IR will create the economic ra- scale of economic output generated by Centre for Cities’ research suggests tionale and a release from some loca- these cities, and less so on the towns that in the future high-skilled business- tional agglomeration constraints that that support these economic drivers. es will want to be located in vibrant city should allow for the integration of these centres close to easy transport links, communities into the wider national and Economic policy to 2070 should fo- in order to attract a skilled work force. regional economy by 2070. cus on the latent strengths recognising While these businesses are likely to ex- that different places perform different port their products, it is their work force Many peripheral towns within the me- functions in an urban ecosystem. Met- that will support the local high streets, in garegion have transitioned slowly from ropolitan areas do not always represent particular food and drink offers and local their industrial past into today’s physi- the optimal location for all firms, or for services. As the boundaries between cally and digitally connected world. This all workers. Spatial planning has a role to working and home life continue to be- challenge underpins the role regional play in helping to realise the benefits of come more blurred, the role of these high spatial planning can take in enhancing pursuing economic development at dif- streets and town centres must evolve. connectivity between areas, ferent urban scales and locations, which can result in growing a more balanced, Providing a mix of high-quality, collab- These towns need to be prioritised productive and sustainable economy. orative business, leisure, cultural, civic, alongside the core cities. Their growth community and retail will become a more needs to be recognised as crucial to the The 4IR is an opportunity for commu- favourable and successful approach to UK economy. This section sets out how nities to integrate into the national econ- town centre development, rather than this can be delivered by 2070: omy and utilise their existing assets. As relying heavily on retail to be the primary jobs continue to become more flexible, use that makes the centre a heart of the 1. Adapt Communities to the 4IR; the built environment will need to ac- community. commodate different working patterns: 2. Invest in Physical and Digital through well-designed live / work spac- Connectivity; and es, high speed travel options across towns, cities and the region, and the best 3. Enhancing the Social and and latest digital infrastructure. Community Assets

60 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Part III - Levelling the Playing Field

Figure 20. Levelling the Playing Field Regional Blueprint Key Clusters Public Sector Priority Greater London Area Advanced Manufacturing Investment in 5G and Next Elizabeth line Generation technologies Creative Industries LEVELLING THE Proposals Integrated Transport Network Agri-Tech (Tier 1) Future Energy PLAYING FIELD. Integrated Transport Network (Tier 2) Life Sciences National Highspeed Transit Corridor Future Logistics Orbital Line Orbital Line East of England Branches Existing Rail Line Upgrades Elizabeth line (extension to Ebbsfleet) Airports Regional Growth Centres

N 0km 20 40 80

61 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Part III - Levelling the Playing Field

This may involve planning to encour- As a priority, the areas where private age the conversion of existing shops Invest in Connectivity sector provision is slow, the coastal towns, industrial towns and the deprived into small working or co-working spaces, The Connectivity Regional Blueprint areas of London, need to become pri- not only for entrepreneurs, but also for for the megaregion balances the need to ority areas for 5G technology imple- footloose corporate workers now walka- reinforce the existing transport links and mentation, led by Government. This can ble to work anywhere, while also allowing economic centres, while also promot- coincide with private sector investment for more flexible uses. The planning sys- ing connectivity of the towns and cities in areas traditionally focussed on by tel- tem will have to adapt, ensuring that high across the megaregion and not simply ecommunication companies, but unlike streets maintain a balance of services focussing on communities to and from the implementation of digital technol- and follow good place-making princi- London. ples. This shift is expected to result in ogy in the past, these areas need to be invested in from the start. smaller but high performing retail cores, For towns across the region the need the promotion of local vendors and a for connectivity into the wider network is Through enhancing physical and digi- more bespoke offer of services with lo- crucial for both local residents and over- tal connectivity in these areas, an oppor- cal authorities and business improve- all economic and social ambitions. The tunity is created for communities to link ment district teams redefining what an development of community hubs utilis- into the wider economy, while leveraging individual centre is known for and will dif- ing MaaS and fixed transport systems the strong quality of life aspects that al- ferentiate it from neighbours. will allow these towns to have a gateway ready exist. to the wider economy, which link them to Increasing the number of high-skilled rural communities and also to the wider businesses on the high street, will only economy, particularly enterprises in the Enhancing Social and be achievable if investment is put into growth sectors to ensure access to tal- supporting the local economy and mak- ent and resources in the wider region. Community Assets ing the urban environment an attractive Over recent decades, many coastal place where people want to work. The However, significant public sector in- towns and industrial towns within the concept of Healthy Streets, developed vestment in efficient and reliable public megaregion have experienced a ‘brain by Transport for London is based around transport to ensure inclusive growth will drain’, which has seen the movement of a series of principles that could ensure all be required, and not just those within the highly skilled people to the more produc- communities are prepared for the ongo- traditional economic centres of the me- tive and economically prosperous areas ing economic shifts we see today, which garegion. balances placemaking with connectivity, (particularly London and its immediate hinterland). The pattern intra-region- with the essential focus on community Connectivity no longer simply means ally reflects the more profound north- wellbeing and economic health. transportation. If these areas are to be- south debate. There is a need to begin come better integrated into the megar- investing in human capital as much as egion economy, there is a need to en- infrastructure. In order to prevent skilled hance digital connectivity. Indeed fast, labour from leaving, these areas must reliable and widely available digital ac- become more attractive to professionals cess is both an economic driver, but also in terms of social and community assets, a driver for community cohesion. as much as economic and infrastructure assets.

62 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Part III - Levelling the Playing Field

Alongside this ‘brain drain’, many of Alongside these natural assets, the these areas are aging the fastest. This presence of traditional and alternative Critical Assets has led to communities that are unbal- cultural attractions and well-managed Levelling the Playing anced, do not meet the needs of local culturally-led regeneration can encour- Field residents and are not seen as attractive age inward migration and tourism and to all population groups. In these areas, stimulate the creative and cultural sec- and more widely across the region, new tors creating new employment, increas- 1. ways of living should be encouraged. For ing town centre footfall and boosting the example, intergenerational living allows local economy. In turn this can attract Focussed investment in town different generations to share space, further inward investment. centre regeneration within which will tackle issues of isolation and deprived communities across the reducing pressure on health services. Community-focused cultural pro- megaregion. grammes can help create cohesive The 4IR presents the opportunity to communities and increase residents’ shift the traditional economic approach- happiness. Community spaces that of- 2. es of investing in a handful of major in- fer support and safe space to different dustries, and begin to support diversity groups in society (particularly those with Invest in connectivity by in social and economic life, such as mak- protected characteristics) should be en- developing integrated transport ing peripheral towns attractive for entre- couraged and integrated into the built systems and investing in digital preneurship and creative industries. environment. connectivity.

To create diverse and attractive plac- It is also important to develop cultural es where people want to live and work, offers not only in urban hubs, but also in greater investment should be focussed the rural areas. Improving the cultural of- 3. in community and social assets. As life- fer in Norwich and Ipswich (both student styles and work/life balance change over towns) can go hand in hand with encour- Invest in the human capital of the coming years, towns and cities will aging the already popular tourist indus- the megaregion through cultural need to cater for the type of lifestyle that tries in the rural areas of both counties led regeneration schemes that people want. This is likely to continue and consolidating these towns as com- leverage the existing cultural and to be focused around experiences and munity hubs. natural assets of the megaregion. quality of life, rather than products. Figure 20 illustrates the investments Many towns that have not met their required to level the playing field by economic potential have a strong quality 2070. This identifies where the key clus- of life that is connected with the natural ters, major infrastructure and cultural/ environment. This can be the first build- social investment should be focussed ing block that can begin to transform the along the peripheral and coastal areas of economies of these areas, driving ‘the the megaregion to promote ‘levelling up’ better of both worlds’ for new rural-city in the region; to sit alongside investment dwellers.. in the economic heartlands of London and the Wider South East.

63 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Part III - Climate Change & Resilience

05 CLIMATE CHANGE & RESILIENCE. Positive Change to Where new communities are developed, Vision 2070 these need to be focussed on existing Reduce Human Impact public transport connections and to The megaregion will pursue support the economic growth of nearby flexibility, proactiveness, and To effectively address climate change, centres. This Housing Delivery section innovation in its approach to address we are ultimately going to need to rethink also considers how future housing climate change and other major how we live our daily lives, including models and designs, which are more environmental issues. the transport modes we use, where environmentally sustainable can be we live and how we work. This means pursued. By 2070, actions required to tackle introducing a spatial planning policy that climate change will need to have been shifts away from car use, ensuring that One concept that can be usefully put in place. However, adaptation in people have access to affordable and incorporated into how we think about the our built and natural environment will efficient transport options, curbing the built environment is the ‘infrastructure of be crucial, alongside wider society and overall need to travel, as well as focusing conviviality’ approach which recognises behavioural change. on biodiversity and environmental net that we are dependent on one another gain that sits alongside investments in (and the planet) for wellbeing and Pursuing ‘sustainable’ business- urban and economic growth. survival. Another is to pursue circular and as-usual approaches has so far failed regenerative design. More widely we may to bring about the necessary change Transport is one of the areas that also need to consider broader societal to ensure that the UK resides within will see the greatest transformations shifts, such as a 4-day working week its environmental limits. Ultimately, in the coming years. This will include a or working with businesses to support addressing environmental change will reduction in individual car-ownership, flexible working. Reducing working hours require rethinking our current approach which will need to be strongly supported and encouraging flexible working could to planning policy and, indeed, the by substantial improvements in the significantly reduce carbon emissions. values that guide our daily lives. This public transport of the megaregion. Regional Blueprint aims to identify the strategic objectives that the UK should The Regional Blueprint for Connectivity Enhancing pursue to respond to environmental has prioritised the need for investment in Environmental Assets change: integrated transport networks for each of the main centres and the development The megaregion has many 1. Positive Change to Reduce of community hubs that can deliver environmental assets that can serve Human Impact Mobility as a Service to improve first mile the dual purpose of improving both / last mile connectivity. This is crucial, environmental and human wellbeing. 2. Enhancing Environmental Assets as the transportation network within the UK is the greatest contributor to Green space and infrastructure 3. Unlock the Benefits of Changing greenhouses gases. provide a variety of benefits. It mitigates Land Uses; and heat islands, supports soil regeneration, We will also need to consider how improves water quality, buffers against 4. Resilience Planning higher rates of housing delivery can flooding, and provides critical habitat for be achieved without jeopardising our biodiversity and ecosystem health. Each of the strategic objectives sustainability priorities. Supporting this In addition green space improves human interlink and build on one another to vision, the Regional Blueprint for Housing wellbeing. As more cities across the UK create a holistic approach to future Delivery has identified that future growth pilot ‘nature prescriptions,’ the social environmental policy that supports needs to be concentrated in existing implications of green space will gain planetary and human health. urban areas through densification increasing relevance, prompting a drive and transport oriented development. for more accessible and better-quality green spaces.

64 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Part III - Climate Change & Resilience

Figure 21. Climate Change & Resilience Regional Blueprint

Key Rail lines Stations within Green Belt (1km buffer) with potential for transit oriented community growth Settlements Opportunities for Natural & Hierarchy of natural assets: Biodiversity Capital - Re-Wilding Areas National Parks Local Energy Grid Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty Water Sharing Green Belt to be enhanced for Biodiversity

National Park City

Coastal Defence Priority Zone

Flood Mitigation Policy Area

N 0km 20 40 80

65 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Part III - Climate Change & Resilience

However, green space is inequitably green infrastructure in cities and towns (perhaps smaller-scale) approach to distributed throughout the megaregion to improve air quality, water drainage, food production. Rewilding, for example, and is often of poor quality. London and urban heat islands. Green space presents an opportunity to not only boasts a high proportion of parks per also drives economic benefits as increase green space, but enhance capita; however, accessibility to these places become more attractive for and regenerate biodiversity and green spaces is often not equal, with residents and visitors alike, presenting ecosystems in areas where it has been more affluent areas having the best opportunities for regeneration through lost or degraded, while combating access. new pocket parks, green façades, green climate change. roofs and regenerating vacant lots. Additionally, just having green space By 2070, it could be common to does not mean it’s providing quality travel through a wildlife corridor of the habitat or ecosystem services. Green Unlocking the Benefits megaregion that’s been repopulated spaces need to be high quality and of Changing Land Uses with native woodland and lynx. The healthy (with complex ecosystems) to government should, however, also offer genuine environmental and social Wider societal changes are also consider closing off some ecosystems benefits. going to change the way we use land. entirely to humans in order to support The agricultural sector is expected to the ecological integrity of these areas. This problem can be seen in the Green see some of the biggest shifts over the Belt policies within the megaregion, coming decades. This is in part due to the Similarly, planning by 2070 will which do not prioritise the health of UK’s commitment to carbon neutrality, have incorporated increased use the ecosystems surrounding London, generational attitudes towards meat of environmental net gain and Oxford, and Cambridge. Green Belt consumption, climate change, and ecosystem service concepts. Policy policy needs to change to become political shifts. will require new developments to an environmental policy, focussed on ensure that the overall environment improving the quality of the land within On a political level, the 25-year will benefit from development through it. This may mean taking a less rigid Environment Plan sets out an approach compensatory environmental schemes. approach; ensuring the protection to agriculture that prioritises the These will need to be managed to and enhancement of areas of high environment. As Brexit proceeds, UK ensure that compensatory schemes environmental value, while recognising agriculture will no longer receive EU are genuine improvements. Shifts away that other areas of the Green Belt are of subsidies (which have, in part, driven from large scale agriculture in the region poorer quality and could be better used the clearance of wildlife habitat) and, will provide space for landscape scale for other purposes. A more flexible and regardless of the UK’s position in the environmental net gain. Large-scale nuanced approach to Green Belt would EU, it is likely that subsidy systems will regional new towns could help to unlock not lead to the erosion of its purpose or change in the future to encourage more environmental net-gain and ensure existence, but would bring benefits by sustainable approaches to farming. accessibility for new communities to positively encouraging improvements On the environmental level, the UK green space. to its biodiversity with a firm emphasis Committee on Climate Change (CCC) on environmental net gain. It would also estimates a 30% reduction in agricultural Beyond re-purposing land use, help tackle the disparity in access to land due to climate change as the land government policy must prioritise affordable housing that is driven in part becomes unsuitable or constrained by programmes to support agricultural by the inflexibility of current Green Belt higher temperatures, extreme weather, landowners and workers if these jobs policy. and lower summer rainfall. no longer become suitable, as a result of political and environmental changes. In addition to reviewing Green Belt These factors indicate an opportunity This will require investing in re-skilling policies, there will also be a need to to repurpose land use in the megaregion programmes and improving access incorporate creative deployment of and to encourage a more balanced to education. It is therefore imperative

66 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Part III - Climate Change & Resilience

that the economy in tandem with investment into water transfers from environmental change are reassessed regions with a surplus; typically the Critical Assets together, as outlined in the Prosperity & western and northern regions of the UK. RESILIENCE Innovation Regional Blueprint. An innovative approach to installing new transfer tunnels could be to link existing river and canal networks, also supporting Resilience Planning 1. wider net gain opportunities, in addition to more traditional pipelines. Climate adaptation will also need to Flexible Green Belt policies incorporate resilience and mitigation. Alongside this approach, better to allow for poor quality, but Planning policy needs to better utilisation of recycled water for non- accessible Green Belt to be used incorporate proactiveness and flexibility, potable uses can reduce the water for sustainable development, while alongside a need to imagine and demand and outflows to treatment Green Belt of high biodiversity debate what ‘good’ looks like regarding plants, achieving a dual benefit. and environmental value would environmental change and enact Desalination may also become a more be enhanced and our best policies that can get us there. viable option for coastal areas, as the landscapes protected. carbon factor of the electricity grid At present, planning and development continues to reduce, with increased timescales inadequately consider future utilisation of renewables - however this climate projections and their associated would need to be considered carefully 2. uncertainties. For example, flood risk considering the potential energy remains the major consideration; consumption required for desalination. Invest in strategic re-purposing however, flood risk patterns will of land uses in particular areas continue to change as future climate Achieving our climate change that could be used for re-wilding projections are developed, and current commitments will also require additional to reduce impact of Climate planning policy doesn’t account for this. investment in renewable energy, Change, while also promoting While climate projections will become primarily to improve the stability of energy environmental net gain. more focused as we develop a better generated. There are opportunities understanding of climatic tipping points, for the delivery of decentralised planning should mainstream uncertainty energy, as opposed to building large into its practices. For example, extreme 3. centralised power plants. This will events will occur more regularly as the be through investment in grid-scale climate changes and policies will need battery storage. Battery installations Invest in water efficiencies to anticipate what would have previously at the point of generation will improve across the region, as well strategic been a 1 in 500-year flooding event. the predictability of renewable energy water transfers to support into the transmission grid or battery population and economic growth. Water stress will be a major concern storage , which could be installed at a for the region. Planning can begin to neighbourhood level to improve energy support water efficiency by ensuring security. that new developments implement water 4. sensitive urban design (WSUD) and Some areas of the region may also sustainable drainages systems (SuDS). Invest in Renewable and need to be safeguarded as areas for Decentralised energy within future renewable energy generation, for However, a strategic perspective is cities and towns across the existing energy sources, such as solar also required, in which alleviating the megaregion. and wind, but also for renewable energy water stress within the region will require resources, including tidal energy, which may become viable in the future.

67 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Institutional Framework

INSTITUTIONAL

FRAMEWORK.Utility providers have relationships Figure 22 illustrates spatially the Existing Institutional with a wider breadth of organisations, reach of existing institutional make-up Structure as they tend to feed into the planning across the megaregion, and the level of of infrastructure more broadly. The influence of respective organisations Institutional relationships in London relationships, whilst wide reaching, are as local, regional and national. This and the Wider South East cut a staggered and convoluted, particularly clearly demonstrates that the existing convoluted and complex picture. The given the amount of utility providers/ institutional structure is London-centric existing institutional structure and organisations there are within the Wider with major national level governing working relationships of the region South East. bodies located in London with an inter- involves a series of localised governance regional reach beyond the Wider South bodies, with varying agendas and trains Local authorities, whilst individually East boundary. of thought. This can result in bespoke having a localised level of influence, have local planning and decision-making a wider network of relationships with In addition, there are several inward tailored to addressing specific district- other organisations of varying levels. facing sub-regional corridors primarily level issues, but can lead to a disjointed As local authorities are the conduit to within the Oxford to Cambridge Arc, approach to planning at a strategic scale. statutory planning processes within their Thames Estuary and Gatwick Diamond. respective localities, they have multiple Figure 23 highlights the existing organisations feeding into them but The Oxford to Cambridge Arc in strategic relationships between there are few ‘horizontal’ relationships particular is the location of a dense stakeholders within the megaregion. aligning common issues across areas. cluster of institutions, reflecting the sub- The diagram highlights clusters of regional planning work currently being organisations that are linked through Within the Wider South East, there undertaken within that corridor. their working relationships from the are two mayoral combined authorities, local to national level. At the core of the the Greater London Authority (GLA) Figure 22 also highlights areas that existing institutional structure is the and Cambridgeshire and Peterborough are relatively under-represented at the national level governing bodies that have Combined Authority (CPCA). These offer regional scale, in particular Kent and a wide sphere of influence, resources the potential to plan at wider geographic the south eastern coastal extent of the and decision-making. level but the powers and remit of the megaregion. This can pose potential authorities vary greatly. concerns where centralised decision- Coming out of this Central Government making might not focus on the challenges core are subsidiaries, agencies and Overall, the diagram illustrates and inequalities seen in these peripheral specialist organisations that work that the relationships between all areas, which are not well represented at within a focussed scope. Organisations stakeholders are extremely complex. a regional level. within the same sector (such as utilities, There is a multitude of bodies that any transport, environment, etc.) have single organisation must deal with at a stronger existing relationships with each given time on any given policy area, and other and tend to feed through the same joined-up strategic planning requires national-level organisations or Central the alignment of numerous ad hoc Government departments. interfaces.

68 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Institutional Framework

Figure 22. Level of Influence**

Regional Level of National Level of Local Authority Level of Influence Influence Influence

**This figure illustrates the level of influence of agencies and Government bodies. Central London is shown to have a large number of agencies with a national and regional level of influence, which is illustrated with the greater dot density on the map. Source: AECOM Analysis

69 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Institutional Framework

The spatial reach of LEPs highlight an Co-Ordination & opportunity for joint-working towards A Regional Spatial Plan Collaboration Reducing a single regional-level (or sub-regional There is a need to develop a framework Complexity level) economic and job creation that balances local decision making goal. The institutional framework and and influence that allows for localised Due to this complexity, there is an structure is already in place to facilitate a issues to be planned for effectively and argument for a more joined-up approach working group amongst the LEPs within incorporate community involvement, to governance and implementation, the region to develop a strategic regional with a regional planning approach that particularly if the megaregion is to economic objective that reduces local can address common issues and shared successfully manage the pace of level inequalities. But, this should solutions for implementation of strategic economic and community change that is only been seen as a first step towards infrastructure for London and Wider forecast. There is a need for a coordinating coordinated decision-making. South East megaregion. group/organisation, at the middle of the organisational structure overseeing the Deliver Differently A London and the Wider South East megaregion or for cohesive parts of the Region plan should have a mandate to region which share common economic, The current ‘Duty to Co-operate’ achieve the following: social or environmental issues, across local authority boundaries anchoring consistent and clear strategic does not work. Delivering growth in the • Balanced Growth: Ensure growth objectives at the meta-policy level. megaregion requires a more joined- occurs in areas that maximise Such an approach would enable more up approach to implementation, which economic potential and quality of coordinated and responsive locally-led involves the public and private sector place, whilst also ensuring a focus solutions. working in partnership to manage the on addressing economic and pace of growth with the right balance social inequality; of responsibilities between national • Efficient Delivery: Coordinated government, regional co-ordination delivery of transport, utility and What’s Working Well: bodies and local or combined authorities. environmental infrastructure that Role of the LEP drives sustainable growth across There is currently extensive debate the region; and Local Enterprise Partnerships (LEP) are and discourse about appropriate scales • Proactive Partnering: Across the partnerships between local authorities for planning and how to best streamline region and develop relationships and business set up by Government in the organisational structure of the with other UK megaregions to 2011. LEPs are responsible for helping planning system to ensure delivery drive UK-wide growth to determine economic priorities is efficient, appropriate and reduces for a locality and lead economic/job localised inequalities. Fundamentally, growth with their spatial remit based three scales have been discussed on functional economic areas and not between practitioners, which are solely on established local authority the neighbourhood/local authority areas, but rather on broad economic level, sub-regional level and Central areas. There are 11 LEPs in the London Government level. and Wider South East region, which are linked and work together extensively at a sub-regional scale, but also across sub- regional boundaries.

70 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Institutional Framework

This would be complemented by Governance a Regional Transport Agency that The regional spatial plan would would be responsible for integrating draw on a common evidence base and coordinating all transport plans (where this blueprint document has and initiatives consistent with balanced provided a start) and be drawn up by spatial growth. collaboration between local authorities, stakeholders and the private sector. Across a wide area – the extent of As a non-statutory planning document which would need to be carefully worked the regional spatial plan would be the through – the Board would set strategic framework for conforming local planning economic, housing and growth targets infrastructure investment decisions. for the megaregion and be empowered to facilitate the environmental, social, There is a need for a new approach economic, connectivity, utilities, digital to the London and Wider South East and human capital infrastructure megaregion in terms of Governance, required to support this growth. Local which will need national government authorities would continue to implement buy-in, as well as statutory weight and local plans, but it would be within a funding if this is to have a real impact. wider framework that considers the regional issues and delivery of strategic A London and the Wider South East infrastructure to support local plans. Board would be the vehicle to ensure an overall integrated approach to planning and implementation across the region through:

• Development and coordination of a high-level strategic spatial plan, alongside long-term economic, infrastructure and housing plans; • Integration of plans for growth corridors - and create a context for sub-regional coordination • Balanced growth-planning between Greater London and the Wider South East and with the rest of the UK • Managing cross-region, cross- boundary relationships; and • Strategic decision-making and prioritisation on core projects.

71 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Institutional Framework

72 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Institutional Framework

Figure 23. Existing Governance Structure in London and the Wider South East megaregion

73 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Infrastructure Programme

INFRASTRUCTURE PROGRAMME. The successful delivery of large-scale Infrastructure delivery also has to infrastructure projects, together with Infrastructure in London take account of external factors: the smart, critical interventions, is crucial & the South East current and predicted future strength in enabling sustainable growth. Without of the economy; cycles of local, physical, environmental and social The London and the Wider South East regional and national elections; new infrastructure, a place will not develop megaregion has a complicated existing law and government policies; climate and grow cohesively. institutional framework, made up of local change adaptation, as well as digital planning authorities, county councils, the and technological development. In Securing initial investment and GLA and Mayor of London, and, following particular, the impact of economic and continued funding is the biggest risk to the Cambridge and Peterborough political change will continue its impact the delivery of infrastructure projects, devolution deal, a CPCA Mayor. on UK economic growth, changes to and predicting the investment that will funding streams, law, and prioritisation be necessary to deliver a large project, Overlaid on this are other partnerships, of investment streams. generally over a long timeframe, is for instance LEPs or England’s Economic complex. Without sufficient investment Heartland. Other bodies, for example New approaches and sources of at key moments in a project, it will not Highways England, National Rail and the infrastructure investment are being be delivered in a timely and efficient Environment Agency, are also involved developed to replace formal funding manner and may, in the long-run, result in in managing infrastructure. All these streams from the EU (i.e.. the European a waste of resource or overload existing bodies may be involved in a decision Regional Development Fund €5.8 billion infrastructure, diminishing the quality about infrastructure delivery, but with 2014-2020 and European Social Fund of life in urban areas and the value of no clear joined-up approach to prioritise €4.9 billion 2014-2020) and loans from environments. investments or to properly consider the European Investment Bank (average the impacts on neighbouring areas of of €5.4 billion each year 2011-2017). Large-scale projects are often reliant investment decisions made or delayed. In the past, these have focussed on on government intervention and one- deprived areas where the cost benefit off government grants, for which there The statutory mechanisms for joined ratio of an investment is poor, are often many competing schemes. up planning and investment are currently Moreover, large projects to deliver weak. While the Duty to Cooperate is a Infrastructure delivery also requires physical infrastructure often require legal duty on local planning authorities, investment in human capital, as much as significant investment before any county councils, and public bodies, it still the physical build. London and the South work begins on the ground, in order to has limited power and does not apply to East comprise 35% of the UK’s real full undertake environmental assessment the Mayor of London who operates on human capital stock of £20.4 trillion, but and secure planning permissions. Aside a principle of ‘willing partners”. Powers the UK is only ranked 23rd in the World from government grants, the methods granted through Devolution Deals can Economic Forum’s Human Capital Index. used to deliver large-scale projects be effective, but these do not cover all Today close to half of all young people are often complicated, often through areas equally, leading to a patchwork of attend university in the UK, yet only partnerships between the public and different areas having different powers. 32% of those aged 14-18 have had any private sector. vocational training, relative to potential demand.

74 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Infrastructure Programme

As identified in the Institutional Strategic Funding Framework, there is a need for a London Arrangements and Wider South East megaregion Board that could apply an integrated approach To accommodate forecast growth and to planning and implementation. This address social inequality, the UK needs Board would ensure that infrastructure a new strategic funding settlement for investment is a driver for economic infrastructure. The UK is facing mounting growth and supports a growing economic, environmental, and social population by setting out a clear problems if the nation’s infrastructure programme to address transport, energy, fails to meet present and future communications, environmental and demands. Government estimates that flooding infrastructure. This approach almost £500 billion is required to bridge would further support the delivery of the infrastructure funding gap, across sustainable housing and employment the UK. locations, as well as the biodiversity net gain required to balance growth and its Balancing the regions and promoting impacts. UK-wide growth is also important. Although this draft blueprint focusses As a priority, there is a need for on the ‘high growth’ London and Wider the megaregion Board to set out a South East, growth in this megaregion programme of infrastructure priorities does not need to be a ‘zero sum game’ (an infrastructure programme). This or at the expense of other regions, and would enable agencies to align there is an argument that UK-PLC needs investment against locations for growth. an increase in the overall percentage of This integrated programme creates GDP dedicated to infrastructure if the the economies of scale offered by national economics and environmental looking at the whole urban infrastructure potential is to be optimised. Compared network, when delivering new strategic to other authorities around the world, the infrastructure. Mayor of London has very limited powers over taxation, which ultimately limits the ability to respond to changing social and economic needs. Other local authorities have even less discretion. More power should be devolved to the megaregion to help ensure it can better overcome inequalities and fund long-term infrastructure. Greater fiscal devolution, combined with a long-term strategic vision and plan will help ensure that investment is integrated and ultimately help to reduce regional inequalities.

75 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Infrastructure Programme

While the public sector will play a key Alignment With role in delivery of infrastructure in the Future Governance With Priorities future, there is a need to leverage private A Long-Range View sector investment and partnering to The development of an infrastructure ensure delivery. In particular, with the UK It is therefore necessary to have an programme needs to align with the outside of the European Union, there is approach to governance that reflects spatial and economic priorities of the an opportunity for a new way to mobilise how the region works and offers a megaregion. This provides the context private capital into infrastructure coordinated approach to deliver for long term regional growth that is projects, as previously, the EU’s future infrastructure projects and bought into rather than imposed, and European Investment Bank has spent development with a clear programme. illustrates the benefits across the decades mobilising private capital into This would lead to a more efficient and region for new strategic infrastructure infrastructure projects in the UK. coordinated delivery method, allowing investment. If benefits are considered projects, timescales and investment for the entire megaregion, it will be easier This could create the opportunity and to be effectively managed, aligned and to prioritise and ensure an infrastructure conditions for investors to innovate. clustered together – i.e. rail infrastructure programme that delivers the greatest Models of delivery from around the aligned with delivery of new town or amount of housing and benefits the globe can be applied to London and its airport, aligned with environmental entire region. This approach will help to regional development of infrastructure. enhancement programmes. de-risk infrastructure investment and However, best practice examples in the encourage public and private investment UK in the delivery of infrastructure, such Projects need to be set up with a more with greater confidence. as HS1, London 2012 and Crossrail, integrated approach that links across must be considered as well. Regardless, the lifecycle of an asset, reduces total Future growth and development the development of an infrastructure cost of ownership and creates assets should also be prioritising existing programme with links to housing and that are fit for purpose. Setting out a infrastructure. While some existing economic demand could provide the 50-year time horizon for investment infrastructure is aging and needs renewal, impetus for investors and sovereign would enable sensible and sustained the opportunity for reinforcement is likely funds to target opportunities across the conversations with contractors and more affordable and less complex than megaregion. consultants about innovative solutions implementing new infrastructure. If the that unlock greater value across the UK is to close the infrastructure funding asset lifecycle and enable training for the gap, this will require making efficient use pool of talent required. of existing infrastructure. This could be through increasing densities around Establishing a robust business case outer suburban and rural stations, which is crucial to the introduction of new will maximise the impact of existing and processes, new technologies or ideas future infrastructure spending or re- that help move towards outcome- purposing existing transport corridors based, or whole-life, value-oriented for implementation of new technologies designs. Digital tools, new technology, (i.e. high-speed or hyperloop). off-site manufacture and data-led asset management should be embraced to unlock the full power of this integrated approach. Digital participation to consult their citizens on local topics and include them in decision-making is part of this evolution.

76 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Infrastructure Programme

Critical Asset Investment Schedule

Figure 24 presents the infrastructure programme for current critical assets in the megaregion and Figure 25 presents the critical assets required to deliver growth to 2070 based on this Regional Blueprint for London and the Wider South East.

This outline investment framework identifies key milestones that are considered relevant - i.e.. government targets related to environment or digital infrastructure. It also identifies a large number of infrastructure projects that are currently in development in the region, at build out stage or early development, or with a commitment to be delivered.

In addition, the schedule identifies delivery requirements for the critical assets, identified previously for each of the themes. Ensuring timely investment of these projects, alongside existing planned and proposed projects is crucial to ensure delivery of the Regional Blueprint and its evolution as part of a series of regional spatial plans and a UK plan, as part of the overall vision of One Powerhouse Consortium and UK2070.

77 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Infrastructure Programme TIMELINE 2020 TO 2044

20... ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25 ‘26 ‘27 ‘28 ‘29 ‘30 ‘31 ‘32 ‘33 ‘34 ‘35 ‘36 ‘37 ‘38 ‘39 ‘40 ‘41 ‘42 ‘43 ‘44 Political Timetable to 2050 UK General Elections London Mayoral Elections Cambridge & Peterborough Mayoral Elections Local Elections (Non-London) Policy Refresh to 2050 London Plan DEFRA 25 Year Environment Plan Existing Critical Assets for Investment Airports Heathrow (Third Runway and Expansion) DCO Submission PHASE 1 PHASE 2 PHASE 3 Heathrow Southern Rail Access DCO Submission Heathrow Western Rail Access Luton Expansion Rail HS2 Elizabeth Line Crossrail 2 East-West Rail Link PHASE 1 PHASE 3 Northampton Gateway SRFI Bakerloo Line Extension Road Oxford to Cambridge Expressway Lower Thames Crossing Energy Sizewell C Nuclear Power Station DCO Submission East Anglia One Wind Farm Bradwell B Nuclear Power Station DCO Submission Establish World’s First Net-Zero Industrial Cluster Other Thames Tideway Tunnel Thames EstuaryOther 2100 Monitoring and Maintenance Construction Environmental Net Zero Carbon Emissions

End Sale of New Conventional Petrol/Diesel Cars Zero Avoidable Waste Eliminating Avoidable Plastic Waste

Increase woodland cover in England: 12% 180,000ha of woodland planted Digital 5G coverage UK wide Full-fibre network 15 million premises connected Garden Towns/ Villages/ New Towns Welborne Garden Town Grazeley Garden Town 15, 000 new homes Bicester Garden Town 13,000 new homes and 18,500 new jobs Basingstoke Garden Town (Shapley Heath) 5000 homes, 10ha employment Didcot Garden Town 15 000 homes,20 000 jobs + 92ha employment land Aylesbury Vale 16 390 homes Harlow - Gilston 16 000 homes by 2033; 7000 beyond this period Otterpool, Kent North Essex Garden Communities North Northamptonshire Garden Villages 25 000 homes Dunton Hills, Brentwood Essex 2500 homes by 2033; 4000 beyond this period Longcross, Runnymede 1500 homes Hemel Garden Village Other 25% of UK population is older than 65

* Investment Framework is Indicative and is intended to provide an example of the strategic approach required to begin planning for infrastructure that is required in the megaregion

78 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - TIMELINE Infrastructure Programme 2045 TO 2070

Figure 24. Illustrative Strategic Investment Framework - Existing Assets

20... ‘45 ‘46 ‘47 ‘48 ‘49 ‘50 ‘51 ‘52 ‘53 ‘54 ‘55 ‘56 ‘57 ‘58 ‘59 ‘60 ‘61 ‘62 ‘63 ‘64 ‘65 ‘66 ‘67 ‘68 ‘69 ‘70 Political Timetable to 2050 UK General Elections London Mayoral Elections Cambridge & Peterborough Mayoral Elections Local Elections (Non-London) Policy Refresh to 2050 London Plan DEFRA 25 Year Environment Plan Existing Critical Assets for Investment Airports Heathrow PHASE 3 PHASE 4 Heathrow Southern Rail Access Heathrow Western Rail Access Luton Rail HS2 Elizabeth Line Crossrail 2 (completed by early 2030s) East-West Rail Link

Road Oxford to Cambridge Expressway Lower Thames Crossing Energy Sizewell C Nuclear Power Station East Anglia One Wind Farm

Bradwell B Nuclear Power Station Establish world’s first net-zero industrial cluster Other Thames Tideway Tunnel Thames Estuary 2100 Construction Environmental Net Zero Carbon Emissions End sale of new conventional petrol/ diesel cars/vans

Zero avoidable waste Eliminating avoidable plastic waste Increase woodland cover in England: 12% Digital 5G coverage UK wide Full-fibre network Garden Towns/ Villages/ New Towns Welborne Garden Town 6000 homes, 5700 new jobs Grazeley Garden Town Bicester Garden Town 5000 homes, 10ha employment Basingstoke Garden Town (Shapley Heath) Didcot Garden Town Aylesbury Vale Harlow - Gilston Otterpool Park, Kent 10 000 homes North Essex Garden Communities 43 000 homes North Northamptonshire Garden Villages Dunton Hills, Brentwood Longcross, Runnymede Hemel Garden Village 10 000 homes, 10 000 jobs Other 25% of UK population is older than 65

79 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Infrastructure Programme TIMELINE 2020 TO 2070

2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

REGIONAL RAIL East West Rail & Orbital Line

REGIONAL RAIL Mainline upgrades

GREATER LONDON NETWORK Crossrail 1 Extension

Crossrail 2

Bakerloo Line Extension & Northern Line Extension CONNECTIVITY

Phase 1 Phase 2

REGIONAL CITY TRANSIT (Tier 1) MK CAM OXF SOTON

National high speed transit corridors (HS2, HS4, HS5) HS4 HS2 HS5

Digital infrastructure

New Generation - ongoing to 2070

Ongoing Investment in Metropolitan & Regional Towns/Cities

Growth & Intensification of Original New Towns HOUSING DELIVERY HOUSING

Strategic New Town New Town 1 Programme 2.0 New Town 2 New Town 3

80 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - TIMELINE Infrastructure Programme 2020 TO 2070

Figure 25. Illustrative Strategic Investment Framework - Future Assets

2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

Strategic Water Sharing Infrastructure

Designation of regional wildlife & biodiversity corridors Green & Biodiversity Infrastructure

Ongoing investment in green infrastructure & transformation of green belt Strategic flood protection - Delivering Upgrades to the Thames

CLIMATE CHANGE & RESILIENCE & CHANGE CLIMATE Barrier Earlier

Planning & Design KEY

Implementation

81 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Megaregion Priorities

MEGA REGION PRIORITIES.

1. Embrace the 2. Invest in the 3. Deliver Planned & Fourth Industrial Priority Economic Proposed Transport

Revolution Clusters Deliver Existing Planned and Proposed Transport projects Embrace the Fourth Industrial Focus infrastructure invest- within Greater London that un- Revolution through investment in ment, skills development and lock strategic opportunity areas physical and digital connectivity community growth around the Pri- (i.e. Bakerloo Line Extension and that opens up potential across the ority Economic Clusters (located Upgrade and DLR river crossings); polycentric megaregion and en- within the seven Inclusive Growth projects which unlock the poten- sures all residents can participate Corridors) to ensure sustainable tial of the wider megaregion for in the new economy and integrated growth sustainable growth (i.e. Crossrail 2, East West Rail, A1 and A27); and prioritise HS2 to promote national connectivity and add capacity to the London and wider South East network.

4. Invest in Urban 5. Transform how 6. Enable Integrated Transport we Live Investment in Utility

Systems Transform the way we live Infrastructure through investment in Mobility as Invest in new Urban Integrated Enable investment in utility in- a Service (MaaS) technology and Transport systems that deliver frastructure that will underpin re- the development of community reliable and frequent public trans- silient and sustainable growth. Ac- hubs as part of the enhanced role port within the major towns and celerate the programme of water of high streets and town centres cities of the megaregion to reduce supply availability through new lo- dependence on car-based travel cal sources and catchment transfers. And, super-charge renewable energy supported by a network of decentralised grid-scale battery storage. Both investments will support security of supply and add confidence to investors

82 OPC Regional Blueprint for the South East - Megaregion Priorities

7. Designation 8. Pursue a Flexible 9. Tackle the of areas of Green Belt Policy Housing Crisis

Biodiversity and Pursue a comprehensive review Tackle the housing crisis through Environmental Net- of the Metropolitan Green Belt that transit-oriented intensification of reflects its regional role in the 21st existing urban areas and develop- Gain century as a green infrastructure ment of well-connected inclusive and environmental capacity re- New Settlements at scale, aligned Adapt and mitigate impacts of source, strategic location for tran- with employment growth clusters climate change by creating strate- sit-oriented communities, as well and urban transit systems. gic areas for biodiversity and en- as reinforcing its role as an urban vironmental net gain to go hand- growth boundary for the megare- in-hand with designation of new gion settlements and infrastructure

10. Deliver a Figure 26. AECOM London 2065 Regional Spatial Plan HS2 for the megaregion HS5

Bring these priorities together Bedford Cambridge within a Regional Spatial Plan for Milton Keynes the megaregion that will align and Stansted prioritise long-term investment in Stevenage Luton Hemel infrastructure and environmental Welwyn Oxford HS4 Hempstead Chelmsford assets, accelerate delivery of sus- Hatfield Harlow Chiltern 2 Southend Basildon tainable new communities and un- Regional Park City Southend-on-Sea North City East Reading derpin resilient economic growth Thames Valley 1 Heathrow 3 Ebbsfleet Medway Thames Estuary through a long-term investment City South Regional Park Bracknell 4 strategy in places where coor- Guildford Surrey Weald Basingstoke dinated investment will have the Regional Park greatest impact Ashford Gatwick

Crawley Figure 26 illustrates what a po- HS1 tential plan could look like, devel- Worthing Hastings oped previously by AECOM as part Brighton of London 2065.

83 This regional blueprint has been prepared from the inputs of multi-disciplinary technical experts from across London and the South East at AECOM and developed by the Town Planning practice and Cities team. For more about our integrated approach to spatial planning please get in touch.

Contacts

Andrew Jones Joseph Ward Cities Programme Leader Principal Planner [email protected] [email protected] For more information about AECOM’s approach to integrated

Cities Programme Leader [email protected] spatial planning, or our vision for the future of the London City Region, South East Mega Region and the UK more widely, please contact:

AECOM Cities: [email protected]

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